2013

TSS Forum 8 March 2013

Foresighting

Ron McDowall

2013

Part 1

Foresighting

Part 2

Backcasting

Part 3

Roadmapping

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Part 1- Foresighting

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Futures

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Types of Potential futures

• There are four types of potential futures these are;

•Possible•Plausible •Probable•Preferable

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Possible futures.

• This class of futures includes all the kinds of futures we can possibly imagine -those which "might happen" - no matter how far-fetched, unlikely or "way out". They might, as a result, involve knowledge which we do not yet possess (the "warp drive" of Star Trek is a good example), or might also involve transgressions of currently-accepted physical laws or principles.

• I tend to characterise these futures as being reliant on the existence of some future knowledge (ie knowledge we do not yet possess) in order to come about.

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Plausible futures.

• This class of futures encompasses those futures which "could happen" (ie they are not excluded) according to our current knowledge (as opposed to future knowledge) of how things work. They stem from our current understanding of physical laws, processes, causation, systems of human interaction, etc. This is clearly a smaller subset of futures than the possible.

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Probable futures.

• This class of futures contains those which are considered "likely to happen", and stem in part from the continuance of current trends. Some probably futures are considered more likely than others; the one considered most likely is often called "business-as-usual".

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• The three classes of futures previously described are all largely concerned with informational or cognitive knowledge.

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Preferable futures

• The fourth class, Preferable futures is, by contrast, concerned with what we "want to" happen; in other words, these futures are largely emotional rather than cognitive.

• They derive from value judgments, and are more overtly subjective than the previous three classes. Because values differ so markedly between people, this class of futures is quite varied. Preferable (or preferred) futures can lie in any of the previous three classes.

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Foresighting the moon landing

• The Apollo Moon Landing, for example, was a preferred future of President Kennedy which began as merely possible but not yet plausible (from the perspective of 1961) because the knowledge did not yet exist at that time to achieve the goal. The requisite knowledge as created during the decade of the 1960s until the idea of actually achieving the landing in the desired timeframe moved into the realm of the plausible, then the probable, and was finally actualised as reality in 1969. It is now, of course, a key event in human history. This example indicates an important point regarding thinking about futures: the judgment of what is possible, plausible and probable (and perhaps even preferable) depends on being "situated in time", and the assessments may change as time goes on. Preferable futures may be so desirable that we consciously seek to move them out of the realm of the merely possible and into the realm of the distinctly plausible by actively creating the knowledge needed to bring them about as reality. It is this ability to envision and then move towards desirable preferred futures (or to consciously move away from undesirable futures) which gives us the concept of foresighting..

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Overview of Foresight methods

Why use formal methods

• Make the foresight process more systematic

• Increase transparency of processes

• Aid creativity

• Constitute space for communication and interaction

• Aid visualisation of possible futures

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Different types of foresighting• Exploratory (outward bound) vs. Normative (inward

bound) approaches

• Quantitative vs. Qualitative approaches

• Methods for different stages / tasks in foresight

• Methods for fostering Creativity, Evidence, Interaction, Expertise

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Exploratory methods (Outward Bound)

Exploratory methods essentially begin from the present, and see where events and trends might take us

They begin with the present as the starting point, and move forward to the future, either on the basis of extrapolating past trends or causal dynamics, or else by asking “what if?” questions about the implications of possible developments or events that may lie outside of these familiar trends.

Among exploratory tools there are trend, impact, and cross-impact analyses, conventional delphi, and some applications of models eg concurrence etc.

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Normative methods (Inward bound)• Normative methods ask what trends and events would

take us to a particular future or futures.

• They start with a preliminary view of a preferable (often a desirable) future or set of futures that are of particular interest.

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Work back

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• Then work backwards to see if and how these futures might or might not grow out of the present – how they might be achieved, or avoided, given available constraints, resource and technologies.

• A fairly recent development is the use of “success scenarios” and “aspirational scenario workshops”, where participants try to establish a shared vision of a future that is both desirable and credible, and to identify the ways in which this might be achieved.

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Scenarios as a method in foresighting

• Scenarios often used in foresighting (Scenario mapping, multiple scenario analysis etc.)

• Other methods (more common less scientific)

• Brainstorming• Causal Layered Analysis• Chaos theory• Cross impact analysis• Decision modeling• Environmental scanning• Expert panel (I tend to use this method, eg Auckland

Council)

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Methods - multiple scenarios

• “Genius” forecasts• Expert Groups, deskwork, • Modeling tools like simulation, cross-impact• Surveys, clustering articulated viewpoints• Setting up Workshops.........

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Black rooms

• No agenda

• No connection to present production

• Outside experts involved

• Time and resource intensity

• Leave outside the door all previous knowledge and understanding

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Scenario Workshops in Foresight - key

•Develop “narratives” for wider consumption and use in raising awareness, helping planning, etc.

•Exchange and share expertise, fusing different types of knowledge•Vision-building process as way of transcending narrow perspectives and routine appraisals of future

•Creating awareness of participant capabilities, expectations, likely behaviour

•Shared understanding useful for future work in Foresight or acting on results

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Summing Up

• Many different types of workshop possible, with or without computers (though expect more developments here)

• Face to face meetings particularly good for detailed discussion, vision-building, and networking... But more sustained interaction may be needed to explore complex domains and relate together expert knowledge.

• Not magic or guru-driven: but does take planning.

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Auckland Council have been foresighting 2040 (Auckland Plan for the livable city)

“Standing in the future and looking back”

Example ; Waste

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Waste in 2040 Auckland City Livable city plan “Zero Waste”

• Foresight 2040 outcome : Waste A Future system state

• Auckland has a circular approach to resources, making the concept of waste obsolete, thus providing an internationally competitive advantage in a resource constrained global economy. All goods sold in Auckland have take-back policies, product stewardship and implied producer and consumer responsibilities. Used products and materials are reengineered for multiple reuses or reduced to raw materials for manufacturing other products. The eco-efficiency of materials has on average improved by a factor of 10, especially involving dematerialisation design. Advanced materials enable resource hyper-efficiency in key sectors, e.g. lightweight transport and renewable energy. Greenhouse gas emissions, energy and water use are no longer constraints on the materials industry.

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Part 2 Backcasting

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Overview

• Defines a desirable future and then works backwards to identify major events and decisions that generated the future, to allow organisations to consider what actions, policies and programs are needed today that will connect the future to the present.

• Backcasting reminds participants that the future is not linear, and can have many alternative outcomes depending of decisions made and the impact of external events on the organisation.

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Benefits of backcasting

• Avoids extrapolation of present events

• Quick and agile

• Accessible and engaging

• Creative

• Lightweight relatively easy to achieve

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Disadvantages of backcasting

• Assumes that a desirable future will occur

• May need constant updating

• Can be resource intensive and time consuming

• No defined conceptual framework

• Best for skilled practitioners.

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Steps to complete backcasting

• Set time line

• Define the present state

• Define the desirable future

• Develop sequence of backward steps to achieve desirable future and set interventions

• Assess opportunities and risks

• Identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present

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Backcasting A City’s foresighted vision.(Energy)

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Part 3 Roadmapping

Many different representations of roadmaps.

Linear, circular etc.

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