Trump Has 2:1 Lead over Rubio and Cruz - HuffPostbig.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Mitchell_Poll20816_.pdf · Thinking about the upcoming March 8 Presidential Primary race for president,

Mitchell/ Fox 2 Detroit Michigan Poll of Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters Conducted February 4, 2016

P R E S S R E L E A S E

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 8, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414

Trump Has 2:1 Lead over Rubio and Cruz

(Trump 41%, Rubio 20%, Cruz 16%)

EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Although Donald Trump’s 3:1 margin in Michigan has decreased since the Iowa Caucuses, he continues to lead by more than 2:1 over his closest rivals Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (20%) and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (16%) in the latest Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit poll conducted before the GOP Presidential debate Saturday night. The three leading candidates are followed by Dr. Ben Carson (9%), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (2%), and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (2%). The IVR (Interactive Voice Response) automated survey of 330 likely March 2016 Michigan Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on February 4, 2016 and has a Margin of Error of + or – 5.39% at the 95% level of confidence. “Trump is leading by a wide margin over his fellow candidates in all demographics, while Rubio has overtaken Cruz to jump into second place. Trump is especially strong with voters 50 or older (43%) and with men (47%),” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said. The Iowa surge helped Rubio; the percentage of voters having a favorable impression of him went from 52% to 67% while Trump (58%) and (Cruz 51%) stayed about the same as in the last poll. This change in popularity also changed the trial ballot test where Rubio moved up 8% to 20%, Trump dropped 7% to 41%, Cruz stayed the same at 16%, Carson moved up 4% to 9%, and Bush dropped 3% to 2%. “Just as the results in the Iowa caucuses influenced voter support in Michigan, we expect to see the results in New Hampshire to do the same thing,” Mitchell said.

The following data show the race between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz:

By age:

Trump (33%) leads with voters 18 to 49 followed by Rubio (20%) and Cruz (18%).

Trump leads 44%-20%-22% over Rubio and Cruz with voters 50-59.

Trump leads 43%-23%-12% over Rubio and Cruz with voters 60-69.


Trump leads among those 70 and older 43%-16%-14% Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 2 of 2 By gender:

Trump leads with men 47%-16%-14%.

Trump (36%) leads Rubio (24%) and Cruz (17%) with women. By area:

In Wayne County outside Detroit, Trump (43%) leads Rubio (13%) and Cruz (20%)

In Oakland, Trump leads Rubio and Cruz 48%-20%-10%.

In Macomb, Trump leads 37%-26%-16%.

In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, Trump leads 35%-20%-10%.

In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Trump leads 40%-30%-11%.

In West Michigan, Trump leads at 35%. Rubio is at 20% and Cruz is at 23%.

In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Trump leads 50%-13%-17%. “Rubio was riding on a crest of positive press from his strong Iowa showing. However, his debate performance Saturday night may hurt him in New Hampshire, allowing some of the governors like Kasich, Bush, or Christie to move up. What happens in New Hampshire will impact Michigan, just as Iowa did. Trump has a strong lead in Michigan and New Hampshire and if he wins in the Granite State, he will likely stay on top here,” Mitchell concluded. (The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll)

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Survey of the State of Michigan Likely March 2016 GOP Primary Election Voters

Conducted January 25,2016 and February 4, 2016

Comparative Field Copy (N= LV’s)

Hi, we’re conducting a survey of Michigan voters for TV and radio stations on the Presidential Race and other issues.

1. If you are a registered voter at the household we are calling please press 1. If

you’re not, press 2. Yes 100% No 0

2. Thinking about the November 2016 General Election for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 97%

Probably Voting 2 Not Sure Yet 2 Definitely Not 0

3. Thinking about the upcoming March 8 Presidential Primary race for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely voting 87%

Probably Voting 7 Not Sure Yet 6 Definitely Not 0

4. In a Presidential Primary you can only vote for candidates in one political party. Next month, will you be voting in the Democratic Party Presidential Primary, the Republican Party Presidential Primary, or are you not sure?

Democratic Primary 0% Republican Primary 100 Not Sure 0


Before presidential and other questions, five quick questions for statistical purposes: 5. What is your age? If you are: 18-49 press 16%

50-59 press 22 60-69 press 33 70 or older press 29

6. If you are a male press 1 or a female press 2. Male 50% Female 50

7. If you are white/Caucasian press 1, African-American press 2, Hispanic press 3, Asian or something else press 4. White 97%

Other 3

8. If you are a: Democrat or lean Democrat press 4% Republican or lean Republican press 86 Another party press 0 or, Independent press 10

9. What area do you live in? If you live in the: City of Detroit press 1% Wayne County outside of Detroit 9

Oakland County 12 Macomb County 7

Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb 14 Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing, Jackson, Mid-Michigan 16 West Michigan 23 Northern Michigan/U.P. 17

10. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement: “I’m mad as hell and I won’t take it anymore!” If you …

GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4 Strongly agree press 55% 38% Agree 27 82% 19 57% Disagree 7 10% 7 12% Strongly disagree 3 5 Not sure press 8 31 Now I’m going to read you a few names. For each, please tell me if you

have heard of that name. If you have heard of that name – let me know if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you don’t know the name, or don’t know enough about them to say favorable or unfavorable, you can give me that answer too.


11. Ted Cruz. If you are not aware of Ted Cruz Press 1. Aware with a favorable

impression Press 2. Aware with an unfavorable impression Press 3. If you are aware, but don’t know enough to say favorable or unfavorable Press 4, and if you are not sure Press 5.

GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4 Not Aware 1% 6% Favorable 50 51 Unfavorable 38 32 Aware/No Impression 8 7 Undecided 3 4

12. Marco Rubio. If you are not aware of Marco Rubio Press 1. Aware with a

favorable impression Press 2. Aware with an unfavorable impression Press 3. If you are aware, but don’t know enough to say favorable or unfavorable Press 4, and if you are not sure Press 5.


13. Donald Trump. If you are not aware of Donald Trump Press 1. Aware with a favorable impression Press 2. Aware with an unfavorable impression Press 3. If you are aware, but don’t know enough to say favorable or unfavorable Press 4, and if you are not sure Press 5.


14. If the Republican Party Primary was being held today and the race was between the six candidates who are above 3% in an average of national polls, who would you be voting for? I list the top six candidates in alphabetical order? If you would not be voting in the Republican Primary press 1, If you would be voting for Jeb Bush press 2, Ben Carson press 3, Chris Christie press 4, Ted Cruz press 5, Marco Rubio press 6, Donald Trump Press 7, someone else, press 8 if you are not sure press 9. GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4

Not voting in GOP 1% 1% Bush 5 2

Carson 5 9 Christie 5 2 Cruz 16 16 Rubio 12 20 Trump 48 41 Someone else 3 2 Not sure 5 7


15. Who is your second choice? Again, I list the top six candidates in alphabetical

order? If you would not be voting in the Republican Primary press 1, If you your second choice would be Jeb Bush press 2, Ben Carson press 3, Chris Christie press 4, Ted Cruz press 5, Marco Rubio press 6, Donald Trump Press 7, someone else press 8, if you are not sure press 9. GOP 1-25 GOP 2-4

Not voting in GOP 1% 0% Bush 7 9

Carson 17 14 Christie 11 5 Cruz 30 23 Rubio 13 25 Trump 11 11 Someone else 4 3 Not sure 7 11


IVR Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Michigan Poll GOP Presidential Primary Voters Conducted

February 4, 2016

N=330 Total

Yes

Total 298

100.0%

100.0%

Age

18-49 54

100.0%

16.4%

50-59 71

100.0%

21.5%

60-69 110

100.0%

33.3%

70 or Older 95

100.0%

28.8%

Total 298

100.0%

100.0%

Gender

Male 165

100.0%

50.0%

Female 165

100.0%

50.0%



February 4, 2016

N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates

Not

Voting in

GOP

Bush

Carson

Christie

Cruz

Rubio

Trump

Total 2 7 27 6 47 59 123

0.7% 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Age

18-49 0 3 7 0 9 10 16

0.0% 6.1% 14.3% 0.0% 18.4% 20.4% 32.7%

0.0% 42.9% 25.9% 0.0% 19.1% 16.9% 13.0%

50-59 1 0 5 0 15 14 30

1.4% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 21.7% 20.3% 43.5%

50.0% 0.0% 18.5% 0.0% 31.9% 23.7% 24.4%

60-69 1 3 8 2 11 22 41

1.0% 3.1% 8.3% 2.1% 11.5% 22.9% 42.7%

50.0% 42.9% 29.6% 33.3% 23.4% 37.3% 33.3%

70 or Older 0 1 7 4 12 13 36

0.0% 1.2% 8.3% 4.8% 14.3% 15.5% 42.9%

0.0% 14.3% 25.9% 66.7% 25.5% 22.0% 29.3%

Total 2 7 27 6 47 59 123

0.7% 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Gender

Male 1 6 11 1 21 23 69

0.7% 4.1% 7.4% 0.7% 14.2% 15.5% 46.6%

50.0% 85.7% 40.7% 16.7% 44.7% 39.0% 56.1%

Female 1 1 16 5 26 36 54

0.7% 0.7% 10.7% 3.3% 17.3% 24.0% 36.0%

50.0% 14.3% 59.3% 83.3% 55.3% 61.0% 43.9%



February 4, 2016

N=330 Trial Ballot Top 6

Republican Candidates

Someone

Else

Not Sure

Total 6 21

2.0% 7.0%

100.0% 100.0%

Age

18-49 0 4

0.0% 8.2%

0.0% 19.0%

50-59 0 4

0.0% 5.8%

0.0% 19.0%

60-69 6 2

6.3% 2.1%

100.0% 9.5%

70 or Older 0 11

0.0% 13.1%

0.0% 52.4%

Total 6 21

2.0% 7.0%

100.0% 100.0%

Gender

Male 6 10

4.1% 6.8%

100.0% 47.6%

Female 0 11

0.0% 7.3%

0.0% 52.4%



February 4, 2016

N=330 Total

Yes

Total 298

100.0%

100.0%

Race

White 321

100.0%

97.3%

Other 9

100.0%

2.7%

Total 298

100.0%

100.0%

Political Party

Democrat or Lean Democrat 12

100.0%

3.6%

Republican or Lean 284

Republican 100.0%

86.1%

Independent 34

100.0%

10.3%



February 4, 2016


Not

Voting in

GOP

Bush

Carson

Christie

Cruz

Rubio

Trump

Total 2 7 27 6 47 59 123

0.7% 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Race

White 2 6 26 6 46 57 119

0.7% 2.1% 9.0% 2.1% 15.9% 19.7% 41.2%

100.0% 85.7% 96.3% 100.0% 97.9% 96.6% 96.7%

Other 0 1 1 0 1 2 4

0.0% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 11.1% 22.2% 44.4%

0.0% 14.3% 3.7% 0.0% 2.1% 3.4% 3.3%

Total 2 7 27 6 47 59 123

0.7% 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Political Party

Democrat or Lean Democrat 1 0 2 1 0 2 6

8.3% 0.0% 16.7% 8.3% 0.0% 16.7% 50.0%

50.0% 0.0% 7.4% 16.7% 0.0% 3.4% 4.9%

Republican or Lean 1 7 24 1 44 51 101

Republican 0.4% 2.8% 9.4% 0.4% 17.3% 20.1% 39.8%

50.0% 100.0% 88.9% 16.7% 93.6% 86.4% 82.1%

Independent 0 0 1 4 3 6 16

0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 12.5% 9.4% 18.8% 50.0%

0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 66.7% 6.4% 10.2% 13.0%



February 4, 2016



Someone

Else

Not Sure

Total 6 21

2.0% 7.0%

100.0% 100.0%

Race

White 6 21

2.1% 7.3%

100.0% 100.0%

Other 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Total 6 21

2.0% 7.0%

100.0% 100.0%

Political Party

Democrat or Lean Democrat 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Republican or Lean 6 19

Republican 2.4% 7.5%

100.0% 90.5%

Independent 0 2

0.0% 6.3%

0.0% 9.5%



February 4, 2016

N=330 Total

Yes

Total 298

100.0%

100.0%

Area

City of Detroit 2

100.0%

0.6%

Wayne County Outside of 31

Detroit 100.0%

9.4%

Oakland County 41

100.0%

12.4%

Macomb County 24

100.0%

7.3%

Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, 45

Thumb 100.0%

13.6%

Monroe, Washtenaw, 54

Lansing, Jackson, Mid- 100.0%

Michigan 16.4%

West Michigan 77

100.0%

23.3%

Northern MIchigan/U.P. 56

100.0%

17.0%



February 4, 2016


Not

Voting in

GOP

Bush

Carson

Christie

Cruz

Rubio

Trump

Total 2 7 27 6 47 59 123

0.7% 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Area

City of Detroit 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%

Wayne County Outside of 0 0 2 2 6 4 13

Detroit 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 6.7% 20.0% 13.3% 43.3%

0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 33.3% 12.8% 6.8% 10.6%

Oakland County 0 1 3 0 4 8 19

0.0% 2.5% 7.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 47.5%

0.0% 14.3% 11.1% 0.0% 8.5% 13.6% 15.4%

Macomb County 0 1 1 0 3 5 7

0.0% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 15.8% 26.3% 36.8%

0.0% 14.3% 3.7% 0.0% 6.4% 8.5% 5.7%

Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, 1 2 7 0 4 8 14

Thumb 2.5% 5.0% 17.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 35.0%

50.0% 28.6% 25.9% 0.0% 8.5% 13.6% 11.4%

Monroe, Washtenaw, 0 1 2 1 5 14 19

Lansing, Jackson, Mid- 0.0% 2.1% 4.3% 2.1% 10.6% 29.8% 40.4%

Michigan 0.0% 14.3% 7.4% 16.7% 10.6% 23.7% 15.4%

West Michigan 0 2 8 1 17 14 26

0.0% 2.7% 10.8% 1.4% 23.0% 18.9% 35.1%

0.0% 28.6% 29.6% 16.7% 36.2% 23.7% 21.1%

Northern MIchigan/U.P. 1 0 4 2 8 6 23

2.2% 0.0% 8.7% 4.3% 17.4% 13.0% 50.0%

50.0% 0.0% 14.8% 33.3% 17.0% 10.2% 18.7%



February 4, 2016



Someone

Else

Not Sure

Total 6 21

2.0% 7.0%

100.0% 100.0%

Area

City of Detroit 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Wayne County Outside of 0 3

Detroit 0.0% 10.0%

0.0% 14.3%

Oakland County 2 3

5.0% 7.5%

33.3% 14.3%

Macomb County 0 2

0.0% 10.5%

0.0% 9.5%

Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, 2 2

Thumb 5.0% 5.0%

33.3% 9.5%

Monroe, Washtenaw, 0 5

Lansing, Jackson, Mid- 0.0% 10.6%

Michigan 0.0% 23.8%

West Michigan 2 4

2.7% 5.4%

33.3% 19.0%

Northern MIchigan/U.P. 0 2

0.0% 4.3%

0.0% 9.5%



February 4, 2016

N=330 Total

Yes

Total 298

100.0%

100.0%

Trial Ballot Top 6 Republican Candidates

Not Voting in GOP 2

100.0%

0.7%

Bush 7

100.0%

2.3%

Carson 27

100.0%

9.1%

Christie 6

100.0%

2.0%

Cruz 47

100.0%

15.8%

Rubio 59

100.0%

19.8%

Trump 123

100.0%

41.3%

Someone Else 6

100.0%

2.0%

Not Sure 21

100.0%

7.0%



February 4, 2016


Not

Voting in

GOP

Bush

Carson

Christie

Cruz

Rubio

Trump

Total 2 7 27 6 47 59 123

0.7% 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


Not Voting in GOP 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bush 0 7 0 0 0 0 0

0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Carson 0 0 27 0 0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Christie 0 0 0 6 0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Cruz 0 0 0 0 47 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rubio 0 0 0 0 0 59 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Trump 0 0 0 0 0 0 123

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Someone Else 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Not Sure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



February 4, 2016



Someone

Else

Not Sure

Total 6 21

2.0% 7.0%

100.0% 100.0%


Not Voting in GOP 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Bush 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Carson 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Christie 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Cruz 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Rubio 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Trump 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Someone Else 6 0

100.0% 0.0%

100.0% 0.0%

Not Sure 0 21

0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 100.0%



February 4, 2016

N=330 Total

Yes

Total 298

100.0%

100.0%

Trial Ballot Second Choice Top 6 Republican

Candidates

Not Voting in GOP 1

100.0%

0.3%

Bush 25

100.0%

8.5%

Carson 42

100.0%

14.3%

Christie 15

100.0%

5.1%

Cruz 66

100.0%

22.5%

Rubio 72

100.0%

24.6%

Trump 33

100.0%

11.3%

Someone Else 8

100.0%

2.7%

Not Sure 31

100.0%

10.6%



February 4, 2016


Not

Voting in

GOP

Bush

Carson

Christie

Cruz

Rubio

Trump

Total 2 7 27 6 47 59 123

0.7% 2.3% 9.1% 2.0% 15.8% 19.8% 41.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Trial Ballot Second Choice Top 6 Republican Candidates

Not Voting in GOP 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bush 0 3 3 0 4 7 6

0.0% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 16.0% 28.0% 24.0%

0.0% 42.9% 11.1% 0.0% 8.9% 11.9% 5.0%

Carson 0 0 3 1 7 8 20

0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 2.4% 16.7% 19.0% 47.6%

0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 16.7% 15.6% 13.6% 16.5%

Christie 0 0 1 1 1 5 7

0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 33.3% 46.7%

0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 16.7% 2.2% 8.5% 5.8%

Cruz 1 1 7 3 0 18 35

1.5% 1.5% 10.6% 4.5% 0.0% 27.3% 53.0%

50.0% 14.3% 25.9% 50.0% 0.0% 30.5% 28.9%

Rubio 0 2 5 0 21 4 33

0.0% 2.8% 6.9% 0.0% 29.2% 5.6% 45.8%

0.0% 28.6% 18.5% 0.0% 46.7% 6.8% 27.3%

Trump 0 1 5 0 8 11 8

0.0% 3.0% 15.2% 0.0% 24.2% 33.3% 24.2%

0.0% 14.3% 18.5% 0.0% 17.8% 18.6% 6.6%

Someone Else 0 0 1 1 1 1 4

0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 50.0%

0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 16.7% 2.2% 1.7% 3.3%

Not Sure 0 0 2 0 3 5 8

0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 9.7% 16.1% 25.8%

0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 6.7% 8.5% 6.6%



February 4, 2016



Someone

Else

Not Sure

Total 6 21

2.0% 7.0%

100.0% 100.0%


Not Voting in GOP 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Bush 2 0

8.0% 0.0%

33.3% 0.0%

Carson 0 3

0.0% 7.1%

0.0% 15.0%

Christie 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Cruz 0 1

0.0% 1.5%

0.0% 5.0%

Rubio 2 5

2.8% 6.9%

33.3% 25.0%

Trump 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Someone Else 0 0

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Not Sure 2 11

6.5% 35.5%

33.3% 55.0%



February 4, 2016

N=330 Total Cruz Name ID

Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 304 17 155 97 22 13

100.0% 5.6% 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Age

18-49 54 2 28 15 3 2

100.0% 4.0% 56.0% 30.0% 6.0% 4.0%

16.4% 11.8% 18.1% 15.5% 13.6% 15.4%

50-59 71 3 44 18 3 2

100.0% 4.3% 62.9% 25.7% 4.3% 2.9%

21.5% 17.6% 28.4% 18.6% 13.6% 15.4%

60-69 110 6 44 40 5 3

100.0% 6.1% 44.9% 40.8% 5.1% 3.1%

33.3% 35.3% 28.4% 41.2% 22.7% 23.1%

70 or Older 95 6 39 24 11 6

100.0% 7.0% 45.3% 27.9% 12.8% 7.0%

28.8% 35.3% 25.2% 24.7% 50.0% 46.2%

Total 304 17 155 97 22 13

100.0% 5.6% 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Gender

Male 165 11 72 59 5 6

100.0% 7.2% 47.1% 38.6% 3.3% 3.9%

50.0% 64.7% 46.5% 60.8% 22.7% 46.2%

Female 165 6 83 38 17 7

100.0% 4.0% 55.0% 25.2% 11.3% 4.6%

50.0% 35.3% 53.5% 39.2% 77.3% 53.8%



February 4, 2016


Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 304 17 155 97 22 13

100.0% 5.6% 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Race

White 321 17 148 95 22 13

100.0% 5.8% 50.2% 32.2% 7.5% 4.4%

97.3% 100.0% 95.5% 97.9% 100.0% 100.0%

Other 9 0 7 2 0 0

100.0% 0.0% 77.8% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0%

2.7% 0.0% 4.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Total 304 17 155 97 22 13

100.0% 5.6% 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Political Party

Democrat or Lean Democrat 12 1 4 7 0 0

100.0% 8.3% 33.3% 58.3% 0.0% 0.0%

3.6% 5.9% 2.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Republican or Lean 284 15 139 79 16 11

Republican 100.0% 5.8% 53.5% 30.4% 6.2% 4.2%

86.1% 88.2% 89.7% 81.4% 72.7% 84.6%

Independent 34 1 12 11 6 2

100.0% 3.1% 37.5% 34.4% 18.8% 6.3%

10.3% 5.9% 7.7% 11.3% 27.3% 15.4%



February 4, 2016


Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 304 17 155 97 22 13

100.0% 5.6% 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Area

City of Detroit 2 0 2 0 0 0

100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Wayne County Outside of 31 3 19 7 1 1

Detroit 100.0% 9.7% 61.3% 22.6% 3.2% 3.2%

9.4% 17.6% 12.3% 7.2% 4.5% 7.7%

Oakland County 41 4 17 13 4 2

100.0% 10.0% 42.5% 32.5% 10.0% 5.0%

12.4% 23.5% 11.0% 13.4% 18.2% 15.4%

Macomb County 24 2 11 4 1 1

100.0% 10.5% 57.9% 21.1% 5.3% 5.3%

7.3% 11.8% 7.1% 4.1% 4.5% 7.7%

Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, 45 1 19 14 2 5

Thumb 100.0% 2.4% 46.3% 34.1% 4.9% 12.2%

13.6% 5.9% 12.3% 14.4% 9.1% 38.5%

Monroe, Washtenaw, 54 1 25 17 6 1

Lansing, Jackson, Mid- 100.0% 2.0% 50.0% 34.0% 12.0% 2.0%

Michigan 16.4% 5.9% 16.1% 17.5% 27.3% 7.7%

West Michigan 77 2 40 26 5 1

100.0% 2.7% 54.1% 35.1% 6.8% 1.4%

23.3% 11.8% 25.8% 26.8% 22.7% 7.7%

Northern MIchigan/U.P. 56 4 22 16 3 2

100.0% 8.5% 46.8% 34.0% 6.4% 4.3%

17.0% 23.5% 14.2% 16.5% 13.6% 15.4%



February 4, 2016


Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 304 17 155 97 22 13

100.0% 5.6% 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


Not Voting in GOP 2 1 1 0 0 0

100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.7% 6.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bush 7 0 3 3 0 1

100.0% 0.0% 42.9% 42.9% 0.0% 14.3%

2.3% 0.0% 2.0% 3.1% 0.0% 8.3%

Carson 27 0 17 6 2 2

100.0% 0.0% 63.0% 22.2% 7.4% 7.4%

9.1% 0.0% 11.2% 6.3% 9.1% 16.7%

Christie 6 0 3 1 2 0

100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 16.7% 33.3% 0.0%

2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 9.1% 0.0%

Cruz 47 2 43 1 1 0

100.0% 4.3% 91.5% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0%

15.8% 12.5% 28.3% 1.0% 4.5% 0.0%

Rubio 59 1 31 18 6 3

100.0% 1.7% 52.5% 30.5% 10.2% 5.1%

19.8% 6.3% 20.4% 18.8% 27.3% 25.0%

Trump 123 11 42 59 6 5

100.0% 8.9% 34.1% 48.0% 4.9% 4.1%

41.3% 68.8% 27.6% 61.5% 27.3% 41.7%

Someone Else 6 0 0 6 0 0

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Not Sure 21 1 12 2 5 1

100.0% 4.8% 57.1% 9.5% 23.8% 4.8%

7.0% 6.3% 7.9% 2.1% 22.7% 8.3%



February 4, 2016


Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 304 17 155 97 22 13

100.0% 5.6% 51.0% 31.9% 7.2% 4.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%



100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bush 25 0 8 14 1 2

100.0% 0.0% 32.0% 56.0% 4.0% 8.0%

8.5% 0.0% 5.4% 14.7% 4.5% 16.7%

Carson 42 3 21 16 1 1

100.0% 7.1% 50.0% 38.1% 2.4% 2.4%

14.3% 18.8% 14.2% 16.8% 4.5% 8.3%

Christie 15 2 5 8 0 0

100.0% 13.3% 33.3% 53.3% 0.0% 0.0%

5.1% 12.5% 3.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Cruz 66 4 45 9 6 2

100.0% 6.1% 68.2% 13.6% 9.1% 3.0%

22.5% 25.0% 30.4% 9.5% 27.3% 16.7%

Rubio 72 5 37 21 9 0

100.0% 6.9% 51.4% 29.2% 12.5% 0.0%

24.6% 31.3% 25.0% 22.1% 40.9% 0.0%

Trump 33 1 16 10 1 5

100.0% 3.0% 48.5% 30.3% 3.0% 15.2%

11.3% 6.3% 10.8% 10.5% 4.5% 41.7%


100.0% 0.0% 25.0% 62.5% 0.0% 12.5%

2.7% 0.0% 1.4% 5.3% 0.0% 8.3%

Not Sure 31 0 14 12 4 1

100.0% 0.0% 45.2% 38.7% 12.9% 3.2%

10.6% 0.0% 9.5% 12.6% 18.2% 8.3%



February 4, 2016

N=330 Total Rubio Name ID

Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 302 13 202 61 19 7

100.0% 4.3% 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Age

18-49 54 4 30 11 5 0

100.0% 8.0% 60.0% 22.0% 10.0% 0.0%

16.4% 30.8% 14.9% 18.0% 26.3% 0.0%

50-59 71 1 50 16 1 1

100.0% 1.4% 72.5% 23.2% 1.4% 1.4%

21.5% 7.7% 24.8% 26.2% 5.3% 14.3%

60-69 110 7 63 20 4 4

100.0% 7.1% 64.3% 20.4% 4.1% 4.1%

33.3% 53.8% 31.2% 32.8% 21.1% 57.1%

70 or Older 95 1 59 14 9 2

100.0% 1.2% 69.4% 16.5% 10.6% 2.4%

28.8% 7.7% 29.2% 23.0% 47.4% 28.6%

Total 302 13 202 61 19 7

100.0% 4.3% 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Gender

Male 165 10 98 38 2 4

100.0% 6.6% 64.5% 25.0% 1.3% 2.6%

50.0% 76.9% 48.5% 62.3% 10.5% 57.1%

Female 165 3 104 23 17 3

100.0% 2.0% 69.3% 15.3% 11.3% 2.0%

50.0% 23.1% 51.5% 37.7% 89.5% 42.9%



February 4, 2016


Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 302 13 202 61 19 7

100.0% 4.3% 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Race

White 321 11 196 60 19 7

100.0% 3.8% 66.9% 20.5% 6.5% 2.4%

97.3% 84.6% 97.0% 98.4% 100.0% 100.0%

Other 9 2 6 1 0 0

100.0% 22.2% 66.7% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%

2.7% 15.4% 3.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%

Total 302 13 202 61 19 7

100.0% 4.3% 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Political Party

Democrat or Lean Democrat 12 1 5 4 1 1

100.0% 8.3% 41.7% 33.3% 8.3% 8.3%

3.6% 7.7% 2.5% 6.6% 5.3% 14.3%

Republican or Lean 284 11 174 55 13 5

Republican 100.0% 4.3% 67.4% 21.3% 5.0% 1.9%

86.1% 84.6% 86.1% 90.2% 68.4% 71.4%

Independent 34 1 23 2 5 1

100.0% 3.1% 71.9% 6.3% 15.6% 3.1%

10.3% 7.7% 11.4% 3.3% 26.3% 14.3%



February 4, 2016


Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 302 13 202 61 19 7

100.0% 4.3% 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Area

City of Detroit 2 0 2 0 0 0

100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.6% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Wayne County Outside of 31 3 23 0 1 3

Detroit 100.0% 10.0% 76.7% 0.0% 3.3% 10.0%

9.4% 23.1% 11.4% 0.0% 5.3% 42.9%

Oakland County 41 2 23 13 2 0

100.0% 5.0% 57.5% 32.5% 5.0% 0.0%

12.4% 15.4% 11.4% 21.3% 10.5% 0.0%

Macomb County 24 0 15 3 1 0

100.0% 0.0% 78.9% 15.8% 5.3% 0.0%

7.3% 0.0% 7.4% 4.9% 5.3% 0.0%

Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, 45 3 24 9 2 3

Thumb 100.0% 7.3% 58.5% 22.0% 4.9% 7.3%

13.6% 23.1% 11.9% 14.8% 10.5% 42.9%

Monroe, Washtenaw, 54 3 35 6 4 1

Lansing, Jackson, Mid- 100.0% 6.1% 71.4% 12.2% 8.2% 2.0%

Michigan 16.4% 23.1% 17.3% 9.8% 21.1% 14.3%

West Michigan 77 2 49 16 7 0

100.0% 2.7% 66.2% 21.6% 9.5% 0.0%

23.3% 15.4% 24.3% 26.2% 36.8% 0.0%

Northern MIchigan/U.P. 56 0 31 14 2 0

100.0% 0.0% 66.0% 29.8% 4.3% 0.0%

17.0% 0.0% 15.3% 23.0% 10.5% 0.0%



February 4, 2016


Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 302 13 202 61 19 7

100.0% 4.3% 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%



100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.7% 9.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bush 7 0 3 3 1 0

100.0% 0.0% 42.9% 42.9% 14.3% 0.0%

2.3% 0.0% 1.5% 4.9% 5.3% 0.0%

Carson 27 2 17 4 2 2

100.0% 7.4% 63.0% 14.8% 7.4% 7.4%

9.1% 18.2% 8.5% 6.6% 10.5% 33.3%

Christie 6 0 4 0 2 0

100.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0%

2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0%

Cruz 47 1 36 8 2 0

100.0% 2.1% 76.6% 17.0% 4.3% 0.0%

15.8% 9.1% 17.9% 13.1% 10.5% 0.0%

Rubio 59 1 58 0 0 0

100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

19.8% 9.1% 28.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Trump 123 6 64 41 8 4

100.0% 4.9% 52.0% 33.3% 6.5% 3.3%

41.3% 54.5% 31.8% 67.2% 42.1% 66.7%


100.0% 0.0% 33.3% 66.7% 0.0% 0.0%

2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0%

Not Sure 21 0 16 1 4 0

100.0% 0.0% 76.2% 4.8% 19.0% 0.0%

7.0% 0.0% 8.0% 1.6% 21.1% 0.0%



February 4, 2016


Yes

Not

Aware

Favorable

Unfavora-

ble

Aware/

No

Impressi-

on

Undecid-

ed

Total 302 13 202 61 19 7

100.0% 4.3% 66.9% 20.2% 6.3% 2.3%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%



100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bush 25 1 15 9 0 0

100.0% 4.0% 60.0% 36.0% 0.0% 0.0%

8.5% 9.1% 7.6% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Carson 42 4 28 9 1 0

100.0% 9.5% 66.7% 21.4% 2.4% 0.0%

14.3% 36.4% 14.2% 15.0% 5.3% 0.0%

Christie 15 0 11 2 1 1

100.0% 0.0% 73.3% 13.3% 6.7% 6.7%

5.1% 0.0% 5.6% 3.3% 5.3% 16.7%

Cruz 66 1 44 15 5 1

100.0% 1.5% 66.7% 22.7% 7.6% 1.5%

22.5% 9.1% 22.3% 25.0% 26.3% 16.7%

Rubio 72 1 58 6 5 2

100.0% 1.4% 80.6% 8.3% 6.9% 2.8%

24.6% 9.1% 29.4% 10.0% 26.3% 33.3%

Trump 33 0 21 9 2 1

100.0% 0.0% 63.6% 27.3% 6.1% 3.0%

11.3% 0.0% 10.7% 15.0% 10.5% 16.7%


100.0% 12.5% 37.5% 25.0% 12.5% 12.5%

2.7% 9.1% 1.5% 3.3% 5.3% 16.7%

Not Sure 31 2 17 8 4 0

100.0% 6.5% 54.8% 25.8% 12.9% 0.0%

10.6% 18.2% 8.6% 13.3% 21.1% 0.0%

Documents

Trump Has 2:1 Lead over Rubio and Cruz - HuffPostbig.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Mitchell_Poll20816_.pdf · Thinking about the upcoming March 8 Presidential Primary race for president,