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To: Interested Parties

From: Lake Research Partners

Re: New Survey in PA-06 Reveals Gerlach Vulnerable to Upset

Date: May 31, 2012

A recent survey of likely voters in Pennsylvanias newly-drawn 6th Congressional District reveals Republican JimGerlach highly vulnerable to an upset by primary carephysician and Iraq war veteran, Manan Trivedi.1 Gerlachstarts out well under fifty percent of the vote and quickly loses hislead once voters learn more about the two candidates. Five majorfactors compound Gerlachs weakness:

1) A narrow majority of this district is now comprised of newvoters whom he has never represented;

2) The top of the ticket is creating headwinds for the GOP, withtheir Senate and Presidential nominees both losing;

3) Voters afford Gerlach strikingly low personal and jobperformance ratings;

4) Independent of the alternative, only three-in-ten votersbelieve Gerlach deserves re-election today; and

5) The undecided voters lean heavily Democratic and look farmore favorable for Trivedi than Gerlach.

Taken together, now represents a unique opportunity to switchthis seat from red to blue.

In an initial trial heat, Gerlach starts out ahead thoughwell under fifty percent of the vote against Trivedi (45% to33% Trivedi, with 22% undecided) and his support onlydeteriorates as voters learn more about the twocandidates. In fact, after simulating a competitivecommunications environment the race quickly draws to atie (39% to 39%, with 22% still undecided).The exact text ofthe statements read to respondents is provided on the following

1 Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey of 408 likely General

1726 M Street, NW | Suite 1100 | Washington, DC 20036 |T 202.776.9066 | F202.776.9074

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Celinda LakePresident

Alysia SnellPartner

Michael PerryPartner

David MerminPartner

Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D.Partner

Daniel R. GotoffPartner

Joshua E. UlibarriPartner

Tresa UndemPartner

Rick A. JohnsonSenior Vice President

Robert X. HillmanChief Operating Officer

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page.

Informed Trial Heat: Candidate Profiles

Gerlach Profile:

Jim Gerlach is a husband and proud father,raising his six children in Chester County. He

understands the challenges facing families inour area. Jim has been ranked one of the mostindependent members of Congress, workingwith Democrats and Republicans to makegovernment serve taxpayers, not bureaucrats.He co-sponsored a law to end bonuses for C-E-Os and top executives that got bailouts, andserves on a select committee that is helping fixour trade imbalance and put American andPennsylvania products in every corner of theglobe. Hes been a check against biggovernment spending and government-runhealth care, and is working to make middle-

class tax cuts permanent, which would savetaxpayers an average of $2,000 per year. Jim isa tireless, independent voice for Pennsylvania.

Trivedi Profile:

Manan Trivedi was born and raised in BerksCounty. He is a husband, father, primary care

doctor and an Iraq war veteran. His career isone of public service, the exact opposite of aWashington politician. Trivedi says theAmerican Dream in under attack. We're indanger of leaving the next generation worseoff for the first time in our history. But insteadof working to create jobs and restore themiddle-class, Jim Gerlach double-dips into twotaxpayer-funded pensions, one of which hevoted to increase by 50%. Gerlach has grownout of touch. Trivedi will fight to end unfairtrade deals that ship jobs overseas. Trivedi willpush for good American jobs that cant be

outsourced in industries like clean-energymanufacturing, reduce our dependence onforeign oil, and help rebuild our middle class.

39% Gerlach 39% Trivedi

The softness of Gerlachs support is underscored by votersexceedingly low assessment of the job he is doing. In fact, his jobperformance ratings are the lowest we have seen for an incumbentmember of Congress this cycle. Fewer than three-in-ten voters rateGerlachs job performance positively (28% excellent/ good job). Thatcompares to nearly half of voters who rate his performance negatively (45%

just fair/ poor). Gerlach does not even have the benefit of personal popularity

to offset his underwater job performance ratings, as just 42% of voters have afavorable opinion of him personally and 25% have an unfavorable opinion.

Voters dissatisfaction with Congressman Gerlach is leaving them looking foran alternative. Today, only 30% of voters would reelect Gerlach,leaving 70% who are open to new representation. Beyond Gerlachsweaknesses, Trivedi also looks to benefit from both PresidentObamas and Senator Bob Caseys early leads at the top of the ballot.

Finally, the profile of the undecided voters who will decide this race providessome of the most daunting news for Gerlach. In a district that is split in termsof party identification (41% each Democratic and Republican, 18%independent/ other), the undecided voters lean Democratic by a 20-pointmargin (47% Democratic, 27% Republican, 26% independent/ other)and are supporting Obama over Romney by an even wider 27-pointmargin.

Bottom Line: Pennsylvanias 6th district is not the same landscape asit was 4 or even 2 years ago. Gerlach is in a severely weakened

Election voters in PA-06. The survey was conducted by telephone, using professionalinterviewers, May 21-23, 2012. The overall margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9%.

Lake Research Partners

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position and redistrictings wake has left him with the additional taskof having to define himself to a new electorate that is already lookingfor an alternative. Trivedis message of public service and changeresonates broadly in this district and moves the race into a tie, and hestands to benefit further from Democratic leanings at the top of theticket and in the composition of the undecided vote. The combination

of these factors provides a clear opening for Democrats to take thisseat from red to blue.

Lake Research Partners