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©Copyright DYG, Inc. 2007

October 19, 2007

DYG SCANDYG SCAN®®

A Trend Identification ProgramA Trend Identification ProgramDYG SCANDYG SCAN®®

A Trend Identification ProgramA Trend Identification Program

Studying Trends: The SCAN Way

Madelyn HochsteinPresident, DYG, Inc.

Market Research Council

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DYG, Inc.

Founded in 1986Headquartered in Danbury, CT

With personnel in:

New York Los Angeles

DYG SCAN® And Corporate Reputation/Brand Image Tracking Studies

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Research program since 1987

Tracks Social Values Hopes, dreams, fears,

beliefs about right and wrong

Also studies: demographics, economic

shifts, technology developments, social

structure changes

Identifies Trends

DYG SCAN®

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DYG SCAN

Changes In…

Keeping an eye on changes here helps you stay one step ahead of consumer behavior

BehavioralChange

Values

Attitudes

Social structure/demographics

Precede…

SCAN Is Meant To Be Predictive

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DYG SCAN® Methodology

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Annual Research Activities

National Survey: 4,000 interviews Nationally representative (adults aged 18+) By telephone

96 items on 48 Social Values from Cultural Anthropology

Focus Groups: Special topics Conducted

across the nation

Secondary Source Research:

Industry, Media, Academia and Government

Conducted in the Summer

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Social/Cultural Values Covered

Family Values

Definitions of family

Child-orientation

Economic Values

Future outlook

Risk orientation

View of business

View of sacrifice

Political Values

Role of government

Gender equality

Multi-culturalism

Commitment to system

Lifestyle/Cultural Values

Pluralism

Materialism

View of leisure

Success criteria

Simplification

Rational vs Intuitive

Lifestyle/Cultural Values

Pluralism

Materialism

View of leisure

Success criteria

Simplification

Rational vs Intuitive

Moral Values

Sexual mores

Religion

Spirituality

Technology Values

Faith in technology

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Work Values

Work ethic

Entrepreneurialism

Work priorities

Community Values

Social orientation

Community involvement

Privacy

Environment Values

Sacrifice for environment

Nature versus science

Environment Values

Sacrifice for environment

Nature versus science

Health Values

Importance of health

Openness to alternative medicine

Physical-mental health connection

Appearance focus

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Obviously, telephone response rates

Currently testing an on-line version

Client interest in narrower and narrower sub-group analyses

Currently able to report on:

Hispanic Americans (nationally)

African Americans (broadly)

Affluent Americans ($150,000+)

Conduct bi-annual on-line survey of teens

Methodological Challenges

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Increasingly, clients ask “What are Trends?”, Increasingly, clients ask “What are Trends?”, “How/Why do they change?” and “How can we “How/Why do they change?” and “How can we

(clients) identify Trends on our own?”. In 2003, we (clients) identify Trends on our own?”. In 2003, we did a conference on what we call Trend-scendency did a conference on what we call Trend-scendency

– Using Trends To Move A Business Forward– Using Trends To Move A Business Forward

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According To Daniel Webster

Trend:

1. (v.) “To have a general tendency; said ofevents, conditions, opinions”

2. (n.) “The general or prevailing tendency orcourse of events”

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According To Daniel Yankelovich

A trend is incremental, uni-directional

Simply put, a “trend” is a way to describe a direction in a society – where an aspect of society is now and where it is heading

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Types Of Trends

Demographic trendsEx: Aging of American populationEx: Increasing ethnic/racial diversity

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Economic trends

Ex: Transformation from a manufacturing to service-based economy

Ex: Proliferation of stock and home ownership – NOT

Types Of Trends

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Technology trends Ex: Easier and faster access to information Ex: Miniaturization, portability

Types Of Trends

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Social/Cultural Trends(DYG SCAN Primary Focus)

Describe the prevailing tendencies, the fundamental directions of society and capture consumer motivations, behaviors and lifestyles

Most difficult to measure!

Deeply held (values-based)

Long term

Once fully in place, they are so ingrained that they often go unnoticed

These three characteristicsThese three characteristicsdifferentiate trends from fadsdifferentiate trends from fads

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Child-Centeredness: A Key Example Of A Social Trend And How SCAN Measures The

Underlining Value

20071997

% Strongly Agree: “Once you have a child, your own needs come second”

(DYG SCAN)

Total Adults

1987

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What Causes Significant Change In Social Trends?

Social Change Sparks

Major real world catalysts

External Forces

Society learning from its own experiences

Social Learning

Internal Process

TWO FORCES

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Y2K A Bust

Jan 1, 2000

Economic Downturn

Tech Bubble BurstsStocks Drop

Spring, 2000

9/11

Sept 11, 2001

“Enron-itis”

2002

Now, Mortgage Now, Mortgage Meltdown/Meltdown/

Credit CrisisCredit Crisis

2007

Iraq War

March 20, 2003

HurricaneKatrina

August 28, 2005

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Defined: Society learning from its own experiences

Social Learning

According to Dan Yankelovich, this typically occurs in a “Lurch and Learn” manner

According to Dan Yankelovich, this typically occurs in a “Lurch and Learn” manner

Example

1960s/70s: Lurch

The birth control pill, Baby Boomers reaching adolescence and social learning converge to create sexual freedom revolution

Social learning: constraints and conformity of 1950s repress individualism

1980s/90s: Learning

Sexual freedom has negative, unintended consequences

AIDS Teen pregnancy Breakdown of family

Unlimited sexual freedom is re-thought

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Social Learning From The Past 30 Years

The dark side of Moral Relativism

“If it feels good, do it” has a painful price• “Enron-itis”• Breakdown of

family

The emptiness of “Me-ism”

Focusing only on oneself and personal indulgence leads to disconnectedness, rootlessness and loneliness

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When significant Trend Sparks (external) and Social Learning

(internal) are at work in our society

Trend change will occur!

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Three Trends: Examples Of How Tracking Social Values Leads To

Insight Into The Culture And Consumer Behavior

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The Valuable Life Goal

TrendLeaders:

Definition: To add meaning to life – to be significant

Key Values:

Personal responsibility Thoughtful sacrifice Hard work, discipline

Trend#1

Began post 9/11 with Baby Boomers Now universal

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Moving Up (1940s – early 60s)

Want to feel

SuccessfulSuccessful

Moving Out (1960s – 1970s)

Want to feel

IndependentIndependent

Quality Of Life (1980s – 1990s)

Want to feel

PamperedPampered

Valuable Life (Now)

Want to feel

NeededNeeded

Core Theme Of Each Era

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Being Good, Doing Good

LegacyChange-Making

Expressions Of The Valuable Life

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Thoughtful Sacrifice Up Dramatically

2000%

I’m willing to make significantsacrifices, meaning give up agreat deal of my time, moneyor effort:

For my country 56 68 +12

To help the poor 50 61 +11

For my community 42 56 +14

To protect the environment 45 58 +13

2007%

Change%

Total AdultsTotal Adults

(DYG SCAN)

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% Strongly Agree: “Refused to buy certain products for social, political

or environmental reasons”

+5+5

% Strongly Agree: “Actively shopped for products for social,

political or environmental reasons”

+7+7

Thoughtful Sacrifice Taking Hold In The Marketplace

(DYG SCAN)

Total AdultsTotal Adults Total AdultsTotal Adults

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Inequity Of OpportunityTrend#2

TrendLeaders:

Definition:

Disruption of income distribution and acceptance of government policies and market forces that embrace “Social Darwinism” have led to economic tiers. Now more than at any time in the past 50 years, there is a smaller middle class and a great gap between upper and lower income groups

Key Values: Upward Mobility Fairness

Universal

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The Greatest Gap Is Now Between The Haves And Have Lots

Have nots Haves Have LOTS!

FormerlyFormerlyknown asknown as

The Middle ClassThe Middle Class

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% Strongly Agree: “More and more, we’re becoming a have

and have-not society”

+5+5

% Strongly Agree: “Young people today will not be able to live better

than their parents”

+7+7

(DYG SCAN)

Total 21+Total 21+

Total 21+Total 21+

Consumers Currently See The Opportunity Window Narrowing

59% Strongly Agree: “These days there are more obstacles to 59% Strongly Agree: “These days there are more obstacles to achieving the “American Dream” than there used to be”achieving the “American Dream” than there used to be”

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“Parentensity”Trend#3

Definition:

Growing anxiety about the long-term success of our children as well as a new focus on our parent/child relationships as a key source of satisfaction – leads to parenting on an intense scale

Key Values: Child-centeredness Grandchild-centeredness Adult child-centeredness

TrendLeaders:

Gen X parents But, near universal

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% Strongly Agree: “Once you have a child, your own needs come second”

(DYG SCAN)

Total Adults

1987 2007

Child-Centeredness

1997

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Generation Y

(DYG SCAN)

% Strongly Agree: “Once you have a child, your own needs come second”

2004 2007 2004 2007 2004 2007

+8+8+8+8+8+8

Child-Centeredness And The Generations

Gen Y Men(20-31 years of age)

Gen Y Women(20-31 years of age)

Total Gen Y(20-31 years of age)

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Generation X

(DYG SCAN)

% Strongly Agree: “Once you have a child, your own needs come second”

2004 2007 2004 2007 2004 2007

+12+12+11+11+11+11

Gen X Men(32-42 years of age)

Gen X Women(32-42 years of age)

Total Gen X(32-42 years of age)

Child-Centeredness And The Generations

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Baby Boomers

(DYG SCAN)

% Strongly Agree: “Once you have a child, your own needs come second”

2004 2007 2004 2007 2004 2007

+5+5+7+7+10+10

Boomer Men(43-61 years of age)

Boomer Women(43-61 years of age)

Total Boomers(43-61 years of age)

Child-Centeredness And The Generations

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Total

2006 2007

+4+4

% Strongly Agree: “Good parents make and enforce strict rules for their children”

Child-Centeredness + Risky Future = Need For Changed Values Re Child Rearing

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Generation Y

(DYG SCAN)

2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

+3+3+4+4 +4+4

% Strongly Agree: “Good parents make and enforce strict rules for their children”

Child-Centeredness + Risky Future = Need For Changed Values Re Child Rearing

Gen Y Men(20-31 years of age)

Gen Y Women(20-31 years of age)

Total Gen Y(20-31 years of age)

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Generation X

(DYG SCAN)

2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

+5+5+4+4+3+3

% Strongly Agree: “Good parents make and enforce strict rules for their children”

Gen X Men(32-42 years of age)

Gen X Women(32-42 years of age)

Total Gen X(32-42 years of age)

Child-Centeredness + Risky Future = Need For Changed Values Re Child Rearing

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If one trend is powerful, a convergence of trends is dynamite

Technology Trend The birth control pill

Social Trend Reduced social

conformityThe 1960s sexual

revolution

Demographic Trend Large youth cohort –

Boomers

Historical Example

Leads To A Favorite SCAN Framework: Convergence

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Current Convergence

Parentensity

InEquity Difficult Economic

Future

Child-Centeredness Rules & Discipline

The Valuable Life Be Significant

Leave Legacy

Create Change

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Window on The World

Prelude to planning season for marketing, communication

Basis for workshops re:

New product idea generation

Understanding the generations

Understanding Hispanic, African American consumers

Spotting trends on your own

At Human Resources level: presentations and workshops on understanding the workforce (Generations)

At Corporate level: social responsibility, public policy pressures

Drill down on specific issues

Right now: health and obesity: The Behavior Gap

How SCAN Is Used

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For more information, contact DYG’s Main Office:For more information, contact DYG’s Main Office:

Phone #: 203-744-9008Phone #: 203-744-9008

SCAN@DYG.comSCAN@DYG.com