Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
TRENDS IN U.S. HIGHER EDUCATION
Fanta AwAssistant Vice PresidentCampus LifeAmerican UniversityWashington D.C.
Trends
Converging Trends will shape U.S. higher education in the future
Changing landscape of higher education is a hot topic for colleges and universities
Issues are complex—from the role new technologies to changing demographics, to rising cost, completion rate, assessment , and globalization
Trends
On the federal and state levels, serious questions are being asked about the role of higher education ( cost, ROI, quality)
Graduation rates; Performance measures; Affordability and Access; Mode of educational delivery are being questioned
Trends
Trends have significant implications for the future of U.S. higher education
BUT ALSO
Trends have implications for international higher education Globally
7 Major Trends
Affordability and Access Demography- Changing population Educational Delivery Mode- Distance
Education Performance assessment/Learning
outcome Economic Downturn/Crisis Privatization of public education Effect of Globalization
Overview of Enrollment and Types of Institutions
Massification and Diversity of Education Community Colleges and State Schools
enroll the largest number of students Private/Liberal Arts Colleges constitute
the largest number of institutions yet enroll small number of students
Traditional model of college is changing-proliferation of for-profit institutions
Number of Institutions and Total Enrollments- Select Years
Source: U.S. Department of Education
1993 2008 % Change
Number of Institutions
3,632 4,339 +19.4%
Enrollment 14,305,000 18,248,128 +27.5%
INSTITUTION TYPE 2007-08source: U.S. Department of Education
Public Private
Two-year
Community Colleges
24%
Junior/Career Colleges
15%
Four-year
State Colleges
13%
Liberal Arts Colleges/University
44%
University
Research Universities
2%
Research Universities
2%
Enrollment By Institution Type2007Source: Department of Education
Public Private
Two-year
Community Colleges
35 % (6,324,111)
Career Colleges
2% (293,811)
Four-year
State Colleges
25% (4,676,046)
Liberal Arts Colleges
20% (3,604,938)
University
Research Universities
14% (2,490,615)
Research Universities
4%(858,599)
Issues of Affordability/Cost
Parents and/or students are increasingly responsible for tuition and other fees
Higher education has increasingly been seen as a private good largely benefiting individuals
Surge in private higher education and the financing models have important implications
Increasing gaps in access to education- government attempting to close gap with government aid – PELL Grants and others
Federal Support for Higher Education
Source: Department of Education
19901990 20082008
Student Aid
$27 billion
$83 billion
Research $12 billion
$28 billion
Tax Incentives
< $1 billion
$10 billion
Trends in College Pricing1997-98 to 2007-08
Percentage Percentage increaseincrease
Average Average increase per increase per yearyear
Public 4 yearPublic 4 year 54%54% 4.4 %4.4 %
Public 2 yearsPublic 2 years 17%17% 1.4%1.4%
Private 4 Private 4 yearsyears
33%33% 2.9%2.9%
Affordability/Access Borrowing Culture for Education= Investment
Tuition cost continue to increase at a rate higher than inflation or consumer price index
Consumer not deterred- enrollment continues to be on the rise reflecting a high demand and a willingness to pay due to the perception that price=quality
Financial aid system places financially needy students at a great disadvantage
Stratification of students- African Americans attending college remain at 20 percentage points lower than whites
Affordability Strategies
Strategic use of non-need-based institutional aid to attract certain types of students to an institution is on the increase- “Bidding war for high profile students to increase ranking”
Discounting of tuition- averaging 35%- use of institutional grants
Pressure/scrutiny by Congress- Elite schools are asked to spend more of endowment on financial aid- proposed 5%
Increase recruitment of full-paying international students
Affordability Strategies
Elite school choosing to boost aid to middle, upper middle class families
Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Dartmouth, U Penn boosting financial aid
Creation of 3 year degree programs and increased enrollment in distance education
Demographic Trends1996-2016 (in millions)
Source: College Board
19961996 20062006 20162016
UndergradUndergrad
Full-timeFull-time7,169,000 9,009,000 10,330,000
Grad & Grad & ProfessionalProfessional
Full-timeFull-time
1,046,000 1,341,000 1,715,000
Changing Student Changing Student PopulationPopulation
More Latino, African-American, Veterans and disabled Students
Retirement of baby boomers Changing pattern of attendance- more
part-time or intermittent participation Community Colleges and for-profit
institutions best at capturing the changing demographics
Most elite colleges will continue to serve traditional college students ( whites , middle class, women)
Online/Distance Education
Forefront of providing accessibility to students around the world
In response to non-traditional students- Non traditional students expected to be the norm in the future
technology as a means to break down geographic, ethnic/racial, economic barriers to education
Challenging universities to rewire their way of thinking to begin to meet student needs – digital generation
Expected growth of 33% in next decade Over $15 billion industry
Online/Distance Education
Growth include efforts to expand access to more students, alleviate capacity constraints, capitalize on emerging market opportunities, and serve as a catalyst for institutional transformation
Factor influencing growth is competition Universities offering online/distance
education are often perceived as modern and [technologically] competent, thus creating a competitive advantage
Distance EducationMammoth
University of Phoenix has 280,000 students around the world
Largest private university in the United States with internet courses
163 campuses and learning centers in 33 states, Puerto Rico, Canada and Mexico
Accountability In Performance
shift toward accountability- Learning Outcome- skills, knowledge, abilities
Shift from “theoretical” and “seat-based time” to “outcomes-based” or “employer-based” competency
With an emphasis on competency, course
content will be dictated more “by what learners need, [than] by what has been traditionally done”
Shift from enrollment rate to completion outcome
Drivers for Accountability
Students and Families as Consumers
Government- State and Federal Access and Affordability Return on Investment Funding tied to new metrics
Employers certification is becoming more preferable than a
degree Diplomas are less meaningful to employers;
knowledge, performance, and skills are what count to them
integrating applied or on-the-job experience into academic programs” as a critical characteristic of universities in the 21st century
Economic Downturn
Impact of Crisis on notable institutions Cornell, Brown, Darmouth, U Penn, Harvard
The case for State Universities UC system- 20% budget cut for AY 2009 Others range from 10-20%
Greater funding for community Colleges-Obama Administration
“Trading Down” decision- moving from private to public and from 4 yr to 2yr institution
Implications for IHE?
Globalization and trends in mobility of students-new players ( Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, etc)
Diversity argument may become harder to justify- given demographic shifts
Key is integrating “multiculturalism” and “International Education”
Need to focus on preparing “Global citizens” for the “global economy.”
Issue is “How do we measure success and learning outcome ?
Implications for IHE?
Cost of U.S. higher education will be an on-going challenge, thus expanding global mobility of students to other parts of the world.
U.S. share of global market will continue to decline
U.S. Higher Education must continue to successfully argue the “value added” dimension if it is to compete effectively
Growth and opportunity mostly in S&E where supply of U.S. student are limited
Research 1 Universities and Community Colleges to continue to experience growth
Implications for IHE?
Technology capabilities will continue to encourage the rise of global universities
There will be an increase in alternative delivery systems, including the creation of foreign campuses
Emerging Economies will account for majority of global capacity and significantly define the Global HE profile ( China, India, Brazil, Chile, South Africa, Malaysia, etc)
Implications for IHE?
HE to become of a globally traded commodity
Protectionist barriers may arise due to security, differential pricing
Competitiveness will require rapid innovation in subject matter AND pedagogy
Private funding for HE will increase significantly
Conclusion
Learning is not just about covering content, it's about developing competency- Competitive advantage of U.S. Higher Education
Instruction is becoming more learner-centered, non-linear, and self-directed
Students are consumers with a choice – and HEd must yield to demand
Reform of quality and accreditation metrics to be expected ( value for money, employment outcomes)
Must align technology with pedagogy
Conclusion
Lifelong learning is becoming a competitive necessity- career changes on average every 10 years – need for retooling, retraining
Traditional campuses are declining, for-profit institutions are growing, and public and private institutions are merging
Number of degree-granting institutions will grow
By 2025, half of today’s existing colleges will be significantly altered in mission
Conclusion
Higher Ed must look beyond traditional and conventional boundaries so must IHE
Universities must be adaptive to a changing environment- demographics
How institutions approach changes will determine whether they remain competitive in the future, or if they will cease to exist
Price and quality competition is likely to intensify
Resources
College Board Higher Education Landscape
Council for Higher Education Accreditation Chea :www.chea.org
Department of Education National Center for Education Statistics
Contact Information
Fanta AwAssistant Vice President
Campus LifeAmerican UniversityButler Room 401B
4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NWWashington D.C. 20016
