TRENDS IN ELECTRIFICATION Transmission.tech 2017 MHEV - … · 2020 2% 2% 5% 13% 2016 2% Natural gas and e-fuels Fuel Cell Battery Electric Plug-In Hybrid Full Hybrid Mild Hybrid

© by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties

Thomas Hülshorst / Jürgen Ogrzewalla / Christoph Bollig

April 11, 2017

Prepared for

Transmission.tech 2017

TRENDS IN ELECTRIFICATION

MHEV - HEV - PHEV - BEV

© by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties |

V 1.16

The Future of Mobility!

Connected Electrified

Shared Assisted / Automated


V 1.16

Hybrid and Electrification

Introduction: Global Fuel economy legislation will become more stringently

Historical performance and targets of CO2 emission limits in different regions

3

Legislation worldwide

requires ambitious targets of

fuel economy improvement

2017 to 2021 a reduction of

CO2 emissions to

130gCO2/km is necessary in

India

Without a massive

electrification in all markets

the 2025 targets of

113gCO2/km cannot be

achieved

Currently electrification share

in India is small, but will

become much importance in

near future. This will also

drive a move to two pedal

vehicles

Source: Improving the conversions

between the various passenger

vehicle fuel economy

The ICCT 2014.12.03

The ICCT paper 2016-26

Transmission. tech


V 1.16

FEV developed a unique approach covering technology push and market

pull simulation to achieve best-in-class fleet performance strategies

Trends for Electrification

FEV COMPREHENSIVE FLEET PERFORMANCE STRATEGY APPROACH

TECHNOLOGY PUSH MARKET PULL

Description of powertrain technology

strategy followed by OEMs and

evaluation of respective impact on fuel

economy

Simulation based forecast on fuel

economy improvement for different

technology strategies and powertrain

architectures

Analysis of consumers within vehicle

markets and their specific needs and

factors with impact on their utility based

on vehicle specifications and exogenous

factors

Multi-agent modelling for customer

buying decision modelling to evaluate

market shares of electrified powertrains

Sales CO2 / $

Sales CO2 / $

2015

2025

Source: FEV


V 1.16

47%

6%

74%

2030

5% 3%

10%

21%

8%

2025

0% 2% 2% 2% 5%

57%

6%

74%

2030

3% 1%

24%

7% 2%

2025

2% 2% 2% 5%

For European market FEV expects a major shift towards plug-in vehicles –

distribution mainly depending on customer preferences


FUTURE POWERTRAIN SCENARIOS PASSENGER CAR

*: normalized to NEDC

e-fuels: fuels produced by electricity from renewable energy

Source: FEV

Scenario 1: “BEV break-through”

8%

13%

13%

51%

33%

6%

39%

85%

78%

18%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

2030

3% 1%

19%

7%

2025

5%

3%

2020

2% 2%

2% 5%

2016

2% 2%

Natural gas and e-fuels

Fuel Cell

Battery Electric

Plug-In Hybrid

Full Hybrid

Mild Hybrid

Stop-Start & 12V Energy Mgmt

ICE only

Scenario 2: “PHEV” FEV Scenario “Most likely”

25%

w/o ICE 13%

w/o ICE

89%

electrified

drives

91%

electrified

drives

20%

w/o ICE

91%

electrified

drives

<65 g/km* <75 g/km* <95 g/km* <65 g/km* <65 g/km* CO2 fleet

emission:


V 1.16

Electrification technology roadmap (Passenger cars) Europe


ELECTRIFICATION TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP (PASSENGER CARS)

1: Under review; 2: FEV Scenario

Source: FEV

2030 2015 2025 2020

Euro 6 Post Euro 62

12 V Micro Hybrid

48 V Mild Hybrid

HV Mild Hybrid

Full Hybrid

Plugin Hybrid

Battery electric vehicle

Battery energy density &

cell technology (BEV)

Charging technology

AGM, Enhanced Flow Battery,

(advanced) Stop/Start, IGM*

48 V BSG (small vehicle segments) ISG for lager

segments ; comfort , e-charging

ISG w/ Li-Ion battery

Today most sold xEV

Range ≥ 50km; predictive energy optimization

(e. g. navigation and ACC based)

BEV (niche) > 150km

w/ or w/o REX

450 V, conductive charging; Fast

charging with 50 to 120kW

12 V + 12 V (e. g. Li-Ion) w/ 12 V e-charger

(esp. for smaller vehicle segments)

48 V as base hybridization esp. for smaller vehicles

Range ≥ 70-80 km; predictive energy optimization (connected vehicle based)

Wider market introduction

≥ 250km w/o REX (niche w/ REX)

Inductive charging

12 V Li-Ion board net

48 V

board net

Range ≥ 350 km w/o REX;

fast charging capabilities

fast charging (>200 kW @ 800 V) capabilities for BEV

80 % SOC < 15 min

Current technology

focus

Next generation

technology focus

Future

technology focus

130 95 751

130

Fleet Average

g/km CO2 limit

‘14 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘26 ‘27 ‘28 ‘29

Fuel Cell First market introduction

Will presumably be replaced by 48V Mild Hybrid

Wider market introduction not before 2030

Dedicated hybrid Transmission and simplified engines

up to 250 Wh/kg (Li-Ion) 300 – 350 Wh/kg (Li-Ion) Solid state technology (>350 Wh/kg);

[Li-S, Li-Air > 2030]

* Intelligent generator

management

2

3

4

Electrification

5

1


Demands on hybrid architectures: Trade-off between contrary targets

prevents the „one-for-all“ Hybrid solution.

Transmission. tech

Micro / Mild Hybrid

12V optimization

48V mild hybrid

High vehicle volume

Plug-in Hybrid / EV

Long range e-Drive

Electric-typical drivability

Small vehicle volume, but large „credit

leverage“

„Just save fuel!“

„Excite the

customer!“

Drivers

Low-cost full hybrid

Simplified cost-reduced ICE

Low-cost Transmission (DHT)

Reasonable sized battery „high volume

hybrid“

7


V 1.16

Volume electrification focuses on mild hybridization up to 48V with minor

adaptations of conventional powertrain


EVOLUTION OF STOP-START TECHNOLOGY

*) Intelligent generator control

Gen 1 – 12V Stop-Start

Stop-Start at standstill

Limited recuperation

Components

– Reinforced 12V starter

– AGM battery

– IGR*

Fuel economy potential:

up to 5% (NEDC), 2%

(WLTP)

Gen 2 – Perfect Stop-Start

Early Stop-Start

Sailing Idle

Improved start/stop quality

Up to 4-5kW with 12V

Components

– 12V BSG, enhanced

starter

– AGM/ EFB / Li-Ion bat.

– Int. generator control

– E-clutch

Add. fuel economy

potential: 1-2 % (WLTP)

Gen 3 – Pred. Stop-Start

Early Stop-Start

Sailing Idle / Sailing Stop

Predictive energy managm.

P0 and P2 architecture

Up to 15 / 20kW with 48V

Components

– Gen 2 12V comp.

– 48V components

Add. fuel economy:

– 2-7% (WLTP),

– 5..20% real world driv.


V 1.16

The FEV AMG45 with gasoline engine and 48 V Bosch BRM and DCDC,

BorgWarner eCharger and A123 Battery provides highest performance


M

Engine

Architecture

Vehicle

Load Starter BSG

DC/DC

eCharger Battery AGM

12 V 48 V

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/e/ee/Bosch-Logo.svg

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/e/ee/Bosch-Logo.svg


V 1.16

48V BSG P0 systems shows advantages from low integration effort and

low additional cost but with limitation in recuperation and cold start

Transmission. tech 10

48V TECHNOLOGIES AND ARCHITECTURES

*FEV expert evaluation (no detailed simulation); Base vehicle: C-Segment, gasoline, manual transmission, ~1350 kg; w/o stop/start

CADC = Common Artemis Driving Cycle

48V BSG (P0) 48V ISG (P1) 48V ISG (P2) 48V ISG (P3) 48V Rear Axle (P4)

BSG

Arc

hite

ctu

re

CO

2

Pro

/Co

n

Belt-starter-generator

providing electric

power up to 15 kW

Integrated-starter-

generator between

ICE and clutch

Integrated-starter-

generator between

transmission & clutch

(parallel or coaxial)

Integrated-starter-

generator at

transmission output


Electric machine

placed at rear axle

with optional flywheel

EM EM

EM

EM

EM EM

■ NEDC: - 9%*

■ WLTC: - 6%*

■ CADC: - 5%*

■ NEDC: - 9%*

■ WLTC: - 7%*

■ CADC: - 6%*

■ NEDC: - 11%*

■ WLTC: - 10%*

■ CADC: - 8%*

■ NEDC: - 10%*

■ WLTC: - 9%*

■ CADC: - 7%*

■ NEDC: -7 to -9%*

■ WLTC: -5 to -7%*

■ CADC: -4 to -7%*

Low integration effort

Low additional cost

Reduc. recuperation

due to ICE drag and

belt torque capability

Limited cold starting

Comfort. start/stop

Generation during

standstill

Reduc. recuperation

due to ICE drag

Packaging

Comfort. start/stop

Efficient sailing

Limited e-driving

Modification of ICE,

clutch, transmission,

cooling etc.

Packaging

No ICE modification

Compatible to diff.

transmissions

Limited e-drive

No start/stop

Major transmission

modification

No ICE modification

Independent from front

wheel drive

No extra length

Modification of rear

axle plus add. gearbox

No start/stop


V 1.16

Electrification rapidly requires automatic transmission. AMT or AutoClutch

is good bridging technology with high significance for India

Transmission. tech 11

*FEV expert evaluation (no detailed simulation); Base vehicle: C-Segment, gasoline, manual transmission, ~1350 kg; w/o stop/start

CADC = Common Artemis Driving Cycle

48V BSG (P0) 48V ISG (P1) 48V ISG (P2) 48V ISG (P3) 48V Rear Axle (P4)

BSG

Arc

hite

ctu

re

CO

2

Pro

/Co

n

Belt-starter-generator

providing electric

power up to 15 kW

Integrated-starter-

generator between

ICE and clutch

Integrated-starter-

generator between

transmission & clutch


Integrated-starter-

generator at

transmission output


Electric machine

placed at rear axle

with optional flywheel

EM EM

EM

EM

EM EM

■ NEDC: - 6%*

■ WLTC: - 4%*

■ CADC: - 3%*

■ NEDC: - 9%*

■ WLTC: - 7%*

■ CADC: - 6%*

■ NEDC: - 11%*

■ WLTC: - 10%*

■ CADC: - 8%*

■ NEDC: - 10%*

■ WLTC: - 9%*

■ CADC: - 7%*

■ NEDC: -9 %*

■ WLTC: -7 %*

■ CADC: -7 %*

Low integration effort

Low additional cost

Reduc. recuperation

due to ICE drag and

belt torque capability

Limited cold starting

Comfort. start/stop

Generation during

standstill

Reduc. recuperation

due to ICE drag

Packaging

Comfort. start/stop

Efficient sailing

Limited e-driving

Modification of ICE,

clutch, transmission,

cooling etc.

Packaging

No ICE modification

Compatible to diff.

transmissions

Limited e-drive

No start/stop

Major transmission

modification

No ICE modification

Independent from front

wheel drive

No extra length

Modification of rear

axle plus add. gearbox

No start/stop

48V TECHNOLOGIES AND ARCHITECTURES: ALL REQUIRE MINIMUM AUTO CLUTCH TO ACHIEVE FE POTENTIAL

AutoClutch Automatic Manual


V 1.16

48V makes hybrid functions available at low additional cost and offers a

kind of “entry hybrid solution” to end users with comfortable functions

Transmission. tech

COMFORT – ASSESSMENT OF 48V FUNCTIONALITIES

Source: FEV research

Functions Conv. 12V 12V BSG 48V BSG 48V ISG

Recuperation

E-Boosting

E-Charging

High power consumer (EPS, eA/C etc.)

Early engine-off / coasting engine-off / sailing

Freewheeling (engine on)

Electric Creeping <15 km/h

Electric Driving >30 km/h

strong weak

12


V 1.16

Source: FEV

Additional component cost over CO2-reduction potential in WLTP

Today mild hybrid architectures are

all in the area of 95 € / g CO2 fuel

savings

However there is an uncertainty on

48V architecture component costs

especially

12V micro hybrid systems reach up

to 5 % fuel reduction for 150 … 250 €

system costs

48V mild hybrid systems reach up to

10 % fuel reduction for 700 … 900 €

system costs

High voltage hybrids offer highest fuel

reduction potential for very high

system costs 0

200

400

600

800

1,000

0 5 10 15 20 25

3

2

1

Est. cost

2017

Fuel savings in g CO2/km

Ad

ditio

na

l co

mpo

nent co

st

in €

1: 12V enhanced starter

2: 12V BSG dual storage system

3: 48V dual voltage system

Fuel and Cost Trade Off

3

2

1 Est. cost

2022

Today 48V systems are not fully cost competitive while 12V systems show

best cost-fuel saving compromise. But in 2025 the situation will change.

Trends for Hybridization


V 1.16


Pictures: Daimler, Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, Mitsubishi

Two or more e-motors

Power Split Axle Split Meshed Parallel

One e-motor

PHEV

Toyota Prius

PHEV AT DCT

Ford Fusion

Electric

BMW i8

Volvo V60 /

XC90

Mitsubishi

Outlander

Chevrolet

Volt

Honda

Accord

Mercedes

C350e / S500 /

GLE 500e

Audi Q7

BMW X5 eDrive

Porsche

Panamera S-E

Volkswagen Golf

GTE

Audi A3 e-tron

PHEV concepts

Four different hybrid topologies exist in the market, either with two or more

e-machines and simple T/M or one e-motor and conventional T/M


V 1.16

The All Electric Range is mainly defined by the Battery Size. A Trend in

Europe is towards an Electric Range for the Statistically Daily Use


ELECTRIC RANGE OF MAIN PHEVS IN NEDC

Most Manufacturer’s offer 25 to 40km electric range, some 50 km but only GM Volt with

80km (that is more a Range Extender Electric Vehicle)

Volt

Prius

Chinese subsidies limit

Trend 2020


Suitable electrified powertrain at reasonable cost and range for cities

with congested traffic but without an existing charging infrastructure?

17 BE – Benchmark Level 0

REQUIREMENTS

Driving cycle

Fuel consumption: < 3 l/100km

Range: > 1000km

Battery: < 500$

Powertrain cost: fitting to A/B-Segment cars


V 1.16

Highly efficient small gasoline engine with reasonable sized battery and

cost-reduction by removing the transmission

18

http://www.nissan.co.jp/NOTE/performance_epower.html

Concept Appraisal: Note E-Power

BE – Benchmark Level 0

POWERTRAIN LAYOUT

HV DC HV AC LV DC

EM

Rear Axle

AC

DC

Li-Ion Battery

Front Axle

GEN: Electric Generator ICE: Internal Combustion Engine EM: Electric Machine

GEN

ICE - Gasoline

AC

DC

Small but high efficient engine (e.g. 3 cylinder),

phlegmatically operated in best efficiency areas

Reasonable sized battery

2 electric machines BUT no transmission


V 1.16

19

http://www.asahi.com/and_M/articles/SDI2017011267061.html

The NISSAN Note E-Power was designed to fulfill these requirements and

still be future proof by maybe going for REEV with scalable battery capacity

Specifications Note E-Power

Weight [kg] 1220

EM Max. Power [kW] / Torque [Nm] 80 / 254

ICE Max. Power [kW] / Torque [Nm] 58 / 103

Battery Capacity [kWh] 1,5

Targets Note E-Power

Powertrain Layout Series Hybrid Type

Fuel Consumption (JC08) [L/100km] 2,7

Range [km] 1300

BE – Benchmark Level 0

VEHICLE SPECIFICATIONS AND TARGETS

JC08: driving in congested traffic condition


V 1.16

FEV HYBex3: Dedicated hybrid transmission enable multi-mode driving

and are capable to bring system costs to a reasonable level

Template Highlights Beirat 20

TOPOLOGY

2x 35 kW 66Nm (peak)

motor/generators

Two direct gears in parallel Mode

Series mode in neutral position

ICE

100 kW 220 Nm BMW B38

Custom ICE software with torque-

and Stop/Start interface

BATTERY

LiFePo Cells

5.5 kWh in total

69 kW (peak)

Hybrid Concept

FLEXIBLE DEMONSTRATOR PLATFORM FOR CONCEPT INVESTIGATIONS

Source: FEV/DENSO

Gears

Driving Modes

HYBex3

EV

Low High

Series Hybrid

CVT

Parallel Hybrid

Low High


V 1.16

System optimization will contribute to more extended driving range and

faster charging times of Battery Electric Vehicles

EV TRENDS

*) two times higher capacity on equivalent cost, weight and volume

**) >1.5 kW/kg

***) ADAS, camera, LIDAR and Car2x services

Battery improvement with

new generation of cells*

Electric machines with

higher power density**

Thermal management with

insulation of passenger cabin

and heat pump combined with

battery cooling

Fast charging of batteries

with up to 200 kW

Light-weight body and

chassis to increase energy

efficiency

Integration of predictive

functionalities for energy

management optimization***

SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION

2016-06-14 / Electrification trends Trends for Hybridization


V 1.16

Next generation of battery cells for electric vehicles will offer > 300 Wh/kg,

while C-rate will decrease due to higher pack capacity


SPECIFIC RAGONE PLOT

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Sp

ecif

ic E

nerg

y [

Wh

/kg

]

Specific Power [W/kg]

Chemistry

NMC

NCA

LTO

LFP

NiMH

Supercap

Other

Shape

Cylindrical

Prismatic

Pouch

5C 10C

20C

50C

Trend

PHEV25

Trend

PHEV40

Trend

BEV

PlugIn Hybrids


V 1.16

Reasonable battery capacity is also limited by charging time and available

infrastructure to approx. 60-80 kWh usable energy


Estimated average energy consumption: 14 kWh/100km

Energy consumption per 100 km in

NEDC:

BMW i3: 12.9 kWh

BYD e6: 21.6 kWh

Ford Focus electric: 15.9 kWh

iMiev: 12.6 kWh

Tesla S: ~25 kWh

30 min fast charging with

120 kW DC to 80% SoC:

60 kWh ~ 400 km range

8 h standard charging at 16 A /

400VAC socket (11 kW) to 100%

SoC (CCCV-charging):

Approx. 70 kWh ~ 500 km range

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

Ele

ctr

ic r

an

ge [

km

]

Socket type

8 h 30 min.

Trends on Battery Electric Vehicles


V 1.16

eHorizon technology based on map and ADAS sensor data enable

predictive energy management

eHorizon based Operational Strategy


# SELECTED EXAMPLES

Long eHorizon (map based)

SOC planning strategy for entire route

Medium eHorizon (map and sensor based)

SOC Leveling for downhill and slow driving

zones

HVAC strategy

Short eHorizon (car2x com. / sensor based)

Smart Adaptive Cruise Control

Situation analysis for

recuperation

coasting

start-stop inkl. sailing stop

shifting strategy

All ranges to be further improved by connectivity

data

Predictive Energy management

based on eHorizon

PlugIn Hybrids


V 1.16

Dynamic Speed Trajectory Optimization for Achieving Real World Optimum

Energy Consumption

FEV SMARTDRIVE vehicle was driven in a representative driving scenario as baseline test.

Driving scenario covers a typical inner city EV driving mileage, according to FEV EV fleet operation study.

The selected route includes varies of traffic events, e.g. speed bumps, roundabouts, traffic lights etc.

FEV Day of Smart New Energy Vehicle - Christiaens - March 30th 2017 25

CASE STUDY – BASELINE TEST

~ 4 km

~ 500 s

Camera

Lidar

GPS, LTE, DSRC


V 1.16


Energy Consumption

Optimized speed profile has smoother acceleration and deceleration, and more constant speed driving.


CASE STUDY – 3D VIEW OF THE SPEED PROFILES

Distance / m

Spee

d / k

ph

Spee

d L

egend /

kph

Base Test

Opt. Test


V 1.16


Energy Consumption

7.3% energy consumption reduction is achieved with even less travel time.

Speed trajectories were reproduced on test track.

Base test was a random drive, result may differ with different test (better result may be possible)

Energy reduction shows less sensitivity to speed deviation caused by the driver


CASE STUDY – ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND TRAVEL TIME STUDY


V 1.16

Electrification – Technical Trends for Indian market

Micro Hybrid based on 12V will become a low-cost standard hybridization with increasing share, applicable in all

vehicle classes, but due to WLTP cycle technologies like start/stop will provide less advantage BUT higher impact

on real life fuel consumption and TCO.

Hybridization larger than 12V micro hybrid will require automatic transmission to exploit its potential. Automatic

transmission market is still small, but AutoClutch or AMT can provide good bridging technology.

Mild Hybrids based on 48 V comes into the market starting following the European introduction and corresponding

availability at reasonable cost Enabler for coasting stop

Plug-In Hybrids and BEV are the important to reduce cycle CO2-values, but success will also largely depend on

government incentives

Dedicated Hybrid Transmission, Combined Hybrid and low-cost HEV will become relevant in 2025 time frame

Low-cost 2- or 3-wheeler BEV up to A segment likely to enter higher volumes first

Li-Ion batteries so far with very small share in Indian market, to be boosted for higher electrification needs

Predictive Strategies like e-Horizon** will improve fuel economy for all kind of powertrains for real life operation

important enabler for customer acceptance

SUMMARY

*) trade-off to 95€/g CO2 penalty payments

**) real life fuel consumption Transmission. tech 28

Documents

TRENDS IN ELECTRIFICATION Transmission.tech 2017 MHEV - … · 2020 2% 2% 5% 13% 2016 2% Natural gas and e-fuels Fuel Cell Battery Electric Plug-In Hybrid Full Hybrid Mild Hybrid