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Copyright 2020 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not
authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying
or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no
warranty is made as to accuracy.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC
Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
Thomas Demas, Managing Director
Michael Warren, Energy Strategist
Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Friday, October 9, 2020
The global scorecard
India + 70,496 Mexico + 3,013
US + 56,800 US + 972
Mexico + 30,468 India + 964
Brazil + 27,750 Brazil + 729
France + 18,129 Argentina + 484
UK + 17,540 Ecuador + 398
Argentina + 15,454 Iran + 230
Spain + 12,423 Russia + 191
Russia + 11,493 South_Africa + 160
Colombia + 8,496 Colombia + 151
+ 269,049 + 7,292
World + 368,381 World + 8,859
Top ten 73% Top ten 82%
World
30.6 median population age
New cases New Deaths
The worst ten countries
48.172 bp of population infected
As of Oct 9
New confirmed cases
by continent
1.384 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 [email protected] Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 [email protected]
2
The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources
New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital
FL MO CA NY TX
CA MI TX CA CA
TX ND FL TX FL
TN MN NY NJ IL
AL IL GA FL GA
GA NJ IL MA MO
IL OH NC IL TN
NC AZ AZ PA IN
PA KS NJ GA NC
VA ID TN MI VA
All states All states All states All states All states
Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten
Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries
United States
+ 51
+ 49
+ 47
+ 41
+ 40 209,447 7,193
4,322,950 131,174
38.1 median population age
233.532 bp of population infected
57% 64%
7,566,106 204,566
49%
+ 975
67%
34,322
52%
The ten worst US states
+ 2,011
+ 2,217
91%
3,556
3,186
2,141
1,755
1,742
1,344
1,149
1,110
1,051
933
17,967
223,401 8,299
211,148 7,294
781,794 16,361
SD -525 AR -14 KY -51
AR
834,800 25,555
726,013 16,334
313,439 9,565
225,397 9,159
470,104 16,160
327,407 15,254
Top ten
TX -88
KS -15
MS -960 TX -15
Five most improved US states
LA -1,632 SC -19 VA -147
KY -1,525 KS
OH
All states
+ 27,091
+ 54,870
NC
TN
VA
NY + 1,836
+ 1,539
+ 4,238
+ 3,575
+ 3,306
+ 3,059
TX
CA
FL
WI
IL
+ 1,344
+ 175
+ 98
+ 90
+ 2,428
+ 1,992
+ 1,844
+ 35
+ 32
+ 29
+ 76
+ 3,274
+ 104
+ 63
+ 36
+ 170
+ 133
-17
-1,244 MS
+ 27
+ 25
+ 654
6.503 bp of population fatalities
+ 8
UT + 5
AL + 4
AK + 0
AS + 0
MA -52
OK -80
Dail
y n
ew
cases a
nd d
eath
s
Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
3
Recommended reading
An American Coup Attempt Ron Johnson
Wall Street Journal October 8, 2020
The Trump Treatment for Covid Is Coming Soon Scott Gottlieb and Mark McClellan
Wall Street Journal October 8, 2020
FDR, Coronavirus and the Politics of Bravado Lance Morrow
Wall Street Journal
October 8, 2020
A Jewish Revolt Against Lockdowns Wall Street Journal
October 8, 2020
The hypocritical oath Amber Athey
The Spectator October 5, 2020
Effect of school closures on mortality from
coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions Ken Rice et al.
British Medical Journal
October 7, 2020
Biden Surrogate Jane Fonda Calls COVID ‘God’s Gift
to the Left’ Graham Piro
Washington Free Beacon October 7, 2020
Biden Surrogate Jane Fonda Calls COVID ‘God’s Gift
to the Left’ Graham Piro
Washington Free Beacon October 7, 2020
Meme of day
g
Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures"
4
The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves
Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
5
The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves
Share of deceased population from day of first fatality
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
6
Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
7
Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases
14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
8
Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
9
Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions
Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations
10
From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande
New York
US ex-New York
Texas269.62 bp of population infected
33.9 median population age
As of Oct 9
38.1 median population age
241.65 bp of population infected
38.2 median population age
233.02 bp of population infected
13.13 bp of population fatalities
6.08 bp of population fatalities
5.60 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
11
The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)
California
Florida
Arizona
As of Oct 9
306.92 bp of population infected
38.0 median population age
42.2 median population age
211.28 bp of population infected
36.7 median population age
338.03 bp of population infected
4.11 bp of population fatalities
7.02 bp of population fatalities
7.88 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
12
Patient zero… and then everyone else
China
World ex-China
As of Oct 9
28.8 median population age
0.65 bp of population infected
37.4 median population age
58.87 bp of population infected
1.69 bp of population mortalities
0.02 bp of population mortalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
13
Impact in the largest economies
Japan
Germany
France
As of Oct 9
41.2 median population age
100.23 bp of population infected
45.9 median population age
47.3 median population age
7.09 bp of population infected
37.90 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
14
Impact in The Anglosphere
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia9.83 bp of population infected
37.9 median population age
As of Oct 9
84.29 bp of population infected
40.5 median population age
46.33 bp of population infected
40.8 median population age
6.38 bp of population fatalities
2.52 bp of population fatalities
0.32 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
15
Impact in continental Europe
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
As of Oct 9
42.2 median population age
68.75 bp of population infected
44.9 median population age
45.5 median population age
56.06 bp of population infected
180.74 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
16
Impact in other hot-spots
South Korea
Singapore
Sweden
As of Oct 9
41.8 median population age
4.72 bp of population infected
101.43 bp of population infected
34.6 median population age
0.08 bp of population fatalities
0.01 bp of population fatalities
40.9 median population age
96.36 bp of population infected
5.82 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
17
Impact in the BRICs ex-China
India
Russia
Brazil
As of Oct 9
39.6 median population age
26.8 median population age
51.52 bp of population infected
8.72 bp of population infected
0.78 bp of population fatalities
0.15 bp of population fatalities
33.5 median population age
240.02 bp of population infected
7.08 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
18
Impact in the Middle East and Africa
Israel
Iran
Africa (52 nations)
As of Oct 9
30.3 median population age
30.2 median population age
322.37 bp of population infected
55.78 bp of population infected
2.05 bp of population fatalities
3.16 bp of population fatalities
11.22 bp of population infected
19.7 median population age
0.27 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
