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Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MPO Analysis of GHG Emissions and Reduction Strategies NOVEMBER 4, 2010 JANE HAYSE, Atlanta Regional Commission RON KIRBY Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments RON KIRBY, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments DOUG KIMSEY, San Francisco Metropolitan Transportation Commission

Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

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Page 1: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

MPO Analysis of GHG Emissions and Reduction Strategies NOVEMBER 4, 2010

JANE HAYSE, Atlanta Regional Commission

RON KIRBY Metropolitan Washington Council of GovernmentsRON KIRBY, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

DOUG KIMSEY, San Francisco Metropolitan Transportation Commission

Page 2: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Questions for the PresentersREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Questions for the Presenters

During the webinar, please e‐mail your questions to [email protected]@p

Page 3: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Taking the Temperature: Transportation Impacts on Greenhouse Gas EmissionsNOVEMBER 4, 2010

Presented by:

Jane HayseTransportation Department Division ChiefAtlanta Regional Commission

Page 4: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

OverviewREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Overview

Ch ll f d b th Atl t R i• Challenges faced by the Atlanta Region

• Scenario testing of land use and transit alternatives

• Plan 2040

• Where do we go from here?

Page 5: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Challenge 1 – Increase in VMTREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Challenge 1 Increase in VMT

R i h• Region has experienced 

id l tirapid population growth

• Growth has led to increase in VMT and emissions

Source: GDOT, ARC

Page 6: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Challenge 1 – Increase in VMTREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Challenge 1 Increase in VMT

ARC 20 County Population • Regionwill8,256,323 

7 000 000

8,000,000 

9,000,000 ARC 20 County Population • Region will

continue to experience rapid

4,944,939 

4 000 000

5,000,000 

6,000,000 

7,000,000  experience rapid population growth

• CO2 emissions 

1 000 000

2,000,000 

3,000,000 

4,000,000  CO2 e ss o sanalysis based on an earlier 

1,000,000 

990

995

000

005

010

015

020

025

030

035

040

population forecast for the year 2030

1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Page 7: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Challenge 1 – Increase in VMTREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Challenge 1 Increase in VMT

ARC 20 County Employment • Region will see a

3,835,118

4,472,567

4,000,0004,500,0005,000,000

ARC 20 County Employment • Region will see a slow recovery to the recent

2,797,292

2,500,0003,000,0003,500,000, , the recent 

recession

• Lower future ratio 

1,000,0001,500,0002,000,000

o e utu e at oof jobs to population

0500,000

990

995

000

005

010

015

020

025

030

035

040

19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Page 8: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Challenge 2 – Georgia’s Fleet InefficiencyREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Challenge 2 Georgia s Fleet Inefficiency

Source: US Census Bureau, 2002 Economic Census

Page 9: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Challenge 3 – On Road Freight TrafficREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Challenge 3 On Road Freight Traffic

T k t f 84% f th i ’ f i ht• Trucks account for 84% of the region’s freight movement

• 55% increase in VMT between 2005 and 2030

• Heavy‐duty diesel engines are a primary source of CO2 emissions

ARC, Envision6

Page 10: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Challenge 4 - CongestionREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Challenge 4 Congestion

• Low travel speeds and idlingLow travel speeds and idling

• 1.35 TTI in 2007  1.64 by 2030.

ARC, Envision6

Page 11: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Scenario Testing – MethodologyREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario Testing Methodology

Land Use Travel Demand Model (TDM)

MOBILE6

• Changed land use to match scenario goals and objectives for each

• Normal TDM model run with modified land use inputs

• Altered fuel efficiencies by scenarioC l l lobjectives for each 

run• Used 1990 and 2005 as baseline years to match

use inputs • Calculates total CO2 produced by network

years to match Kyoto Protocol and provide a near term year

Page 12: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Scenario Testing – Envision6 RTPREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario Testing Envision6 RTP

Page 13: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Scenario Testing – Envision6 RTP and EISAREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario Testing Envision6 RTP and EISA

Page 14: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Scenario Testing – Denser Land UseREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario Testing Denser Land Use

Page 15: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Scenario Testing – Transit Oriented GrowthREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario Testing Transit Oriented Growth

Page 16: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Scenario Testing - CompositeREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario Testing Composite

Page 17: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Scenario Testing – Per Capita CompositeREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario Testing Per Capita Composite

Page 18: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Scenario Testing – AdviceREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario Testing Advice

D l t h i th t i il li bl• Develop a technique that is easily replicable

• A model is only as good as the info you feed it– How reliable are my land use assumptions?

– How reliable is my travel demand model?

– How reliable is my emissions calculator?

• Establish realistic goals and objectivesg j

Page 19: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Plan 2040REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Plan 2040

E i t l t i bilit i k l l• Environmental sustainability is a key plan goal

• ARC/FHWA joint climate change scenario planning workshop

• Added CO2 as a criterion for benefit cost 2analysis– Assigned a price per ton of emissiong p p

– Forced some projects into negative B/C ratios

Page 20: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Where do we go from here?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Where do we go from here?

• Goal 1 Promote sustainable development through• Goal 1: Promote sustainable development through integrated land use and transportation strategies

• Goal 2: Reduce VMT by supporting alternative modes• Goal 2: Reduce VMT by supporting alternative modes and implementing transportation pricing measures

• Goal 3: Support the use of cleaner and more fuel‐• Goal 3: Support the use of cleaner and more fuel‐efficient vehicles and alternative fuels

• Goal 4: Work with stakeholders to set meaningfulGoal 4: Work with stakeholders to set meaningful and realistic emission reduction targets

• Goal 5: Consider adaptation strategiesGoal 5: Consider adaptation strategies

Page 21: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Where do we go from here?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Where do we go from here?

Page 22: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Where do we go from here?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Where do we go from here?

Page 23: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Meeting Transportation Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals in the National Capital Region: A “What Would it Take” ScenarioNOVEMBER 4, 2010

Presented by:Presented by:

Ronald F. KirbyDirector of Transportation PlanningNational Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB)

Page 24: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

What is the Transportation Planning B d (TPB)?

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Board (TPB)?Federally Mandated Role: Responsible forFederally Mandated Role: Responsible for coordinating planning and funding for the region’s transportation system.

Members: Include representatives of local governments; state transportation agencies; g ; p g ;state and DC legislatures; and WMATA.

Relationship with COG: The TPB is staffed byRelationship with COG: The TPB is staffed by the Department of Transportation Planning at COG. As a body, the TPB is independent from y, pthe board of COG.

Page 25: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

TPB Planning AreaREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

TPB Planning Area

• Approximately 3,000 square miles

• Includes over 5 million people and 3 illi j b3 million jobs

Page 26: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

ContextREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Context

• Currently there is no federal requirement forCurrently there is no federal requirement for MPOs to develop GHG inventories.

• Because of interest from TPB members, an ,extensive study on GHG forecasting and mitigation strategies was conducted. The next step is to study TPB’s possible role in adaptation.C l d l l i h• Currently, states and local governments in the region are working on their own climate change studiesstudies

Page 27: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Why “What Would it Take (WWIT)?”REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Why What Would it Take (WWIT)?

• Build off of regional goals in the COG Climate Change g g gReport (November 2008).– 80% reduction goal from 2005 baseline levels by 2050 for all

sectors (based on international goals)sectors (based on international goals)– “What Would it Take” to achieve this percentage reduction in the

transportation sector?

S t l l j i di ti b id tif i ff ti d• Support local jurisdictions by identifying effective and feasible strategies.

• Determine the type and scale of transportation e e e e type a d sca e o t a spo tat ostrategies necessary to meet regional goals.

Page 28: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Regional Growth ForecastsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Regional Growth Forecasts

Page 29: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

OutlineREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Outline

Di i f th th d l i d lt f• Discussion of the methodologies and results of the WWIT Scenario studyCurrent regional initiatives to address climate• Current regional initiatives to address climate change mitigation

• Future work in studying TPB’s possible role in• Future work in studying TPB s possible role in climate change adaptation planning activities

Page 30: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Analysis StrategyREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Analysis Strategy

CO i t i d t d l d i M bil 6• CO2 inventories and rates were developed using Mobile6 and an offline spreadsheet to estimate the reductions from CAFE standards– Local vehicle fleet information from decoded VIN data

• VMT reduction strategies were analyzed using travel f ti d d k t h l i th dforecasting procedures and sketch planning methods

• Traffic flow improvements were analyzed using CO2

emissions changes by speed developed by UC Riversideemissions changes by speed developed by UC Riverside

Page 31: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Regional GHG Reduction GoalsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Regional GHG Reduction Goals

What if we had to meet these regional goals in the transportation sector? What would we need to accomplish by our current planning horizon of 2030?

Page 32: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

What is our GHG baseline?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

What is our GHG baseline?

Committed TERMs (Transportation Emissions Red ction Meas res) incl de Access and ser ice impro ements to transit bike/ped projects rideshareCommitted TERMs (Transportation Emissions Reduction Measures) include: Access and service improvements to transit, bike/ped projects, rideshare assistance programs, telecommute programs, traffic improvements, engine technology programs

Page 33: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

How can we reduce CO2?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

How can we reduce CO2?

Page 34: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Categories of StrategiesREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Categories of Strategies

Page 35: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Higher Federal RoleREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Higher Federal Role

Page 36: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Current Federal PolicyREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Current Federal Policy

Page 37: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Current Federal Policy + Sh t t A ti

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Short-term Actions

Page 38: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Current Federal Policy + L t A ti

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Long-term Actions

Page 39: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Meeting the GoalsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Meeting the Goals

Can we combine the aggressive federal strategies with the regional strategies and meet the goals?1 Danger of double counting if VMT reducing strategies are1. Danger of double-counting if VMT-reducing strategies are

combined with the High Gas Price strategy, which results in a 6% VMT reduction.

2. The effectiveness of travel efficiency strategies is diminished if the fleet is cleaner.

3. If operations measures (incident management, signal p ( g , goptimization, hybrid buses, eco-driving, and idling reduction) are adjusted and added to the high federal role grouping, the 3% shortfall is reduced to 1.6%.grouping, the 3% shortfall is reduced to 1.6%.

Page 40: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Cost-effectivenessREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Cost effectiveness

Page 41: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Benefit Cost AnalysisREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Benefit Cost Analysis

Page 42: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

What have we learned?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

What have we learned?

• Benefit cost analysis is more appropriate for analyzing y pp p y gpotential GHG reduction strategies than cost-effectiveness calculation.Oth f t th t t id d ( h b dli• Other factors that were not considered (such as bundling of measures and second order demand effects) should be considered in future work, along with updated emissions models like MOVES.

• There are immediate effective actions that local governments can take to work towards meeting shortgovernments can take to work towards meeting short term reduction goals.

Page 43: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

What next?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

What next?

TPB can begin designing some actions that the region g g g gcould consider for the near-term1. Expand pay-as-you drive insurance to the whole region2 A l t th TPB Bik /P d Pl l ti2. Accelerate the TPB Bike/Ped Plan completion3. Begin an eco-driving public education campaign

(potentially through Commuter Connections)4. Promote state/local incentives to accelerate the use of

fuel efficient/alternative fuel vehicles for both public fleets and private usefleets and private use

5. Strengthen long-term focus on mixed use activity centers and transit oriented development

21

Page 44: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

What is Adaptation?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

What is Adaptation?

Measures that reduce or avoid climate changeMeasures that reduce or avoid climate change impacts or create opportunities when changes are positive (ICLEI)• Different than mitigation, which is any measure

taken to reduce GHG emissions• Adaptation strategies can include, but are not

limited to infrastructural, service, planning, or f i h h hfreight changes, among others

TPB is starting to research our possible role in d t ti l iadaptation planning

Page 45: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Why do we need to adapt?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Why do we need to adapt?

• CO remains in the atmosphere for centuries• CO2 remains in the atmosphere for centuries. Emissions of the past and present will impact the future for centuries.future for centuries.

• Impacts will largely be felt at the local and regional levels.g

• The cost of waiting to react to climate changes rather than proactively planning is high.p y p g g

Page 46: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Some Impacts in the Washington RegionREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Some Impacts in the Washington Region

• More very hot days (90 degrees+)More very hot days (90 degrees+)– Meeting federal air quality standards will likely be

more difficult

• Flooding from sea level rise– Will require increased maintenance, retrofits, and q , ,

possible relocation of infrastructure

• More intense downpours (coupled with p ( pincreased drought)– Will require greater stormwater and erosion control

measures

Page 47: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

What are the Major Considerations?REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

What are the Major Considerations?

• We cannot plan in a sector-specific vacuump p– There will be cascading impacts eventually affecting

transportation that are not immediately obvious without multi-sector planning (e g stormwater erosion)multi sector planning (e.g. stormwater, erosion)

• Linkage of adaptation with mitigation– Emissions of adaptation strategies (e.g. sea wall

construction)– Adaptation needs of mitigation strategies (e.g. protecting

rail bridges from flooding)g g)• Major uncertainty

– Long range planning process must be adaptable as information changesinformation changes.

Page 48: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Four Possible Roles for MPOsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Four Possible Roles for MPOs

1. Coordination of state and local maintenance,1. Coordination of state and local maintenance, capital, and operating priorities into long-range planning– Example: With high heat, commuter rail service

capacities may be limited, requiring integrated planning with other transit and highway operationsplanning with other transit and highway operations

2. Adapting long-range planning to handle uncertainty of future climate change impactsuncertainty of future climate change impacts– This will be a major change, since current planning

processes do not include potential climate changes

Page 49: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Four Possible Roles for MPOsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Four Possible Roles for MPOs

3 Coordination of multi‐sector planning3. Coordination of multi sector planning– Stress importance of coordinating transportation with 

other sectors (health, public safety, water) as is currently done for evacuation plans and weather emergency plans

4. Modeling of transportation demand, service, and air quality impacts

– Modeling can be used to assess indirect impacts of l h l l l dclimate change on service levels, travel, and emissions

Page 50: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

CARB OverviewREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

CARB Overview

SB375

Page 51: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate & Transportation:Change is ComingNOVEMBER 4, 2010

Presented by:

DOUG KIMSEYPlanning Director, San Francisco Metropolitan Transportation Commission

Page 52: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

AB 32 Global Warming S l ti A t f 2006

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Solutions Act of 2006

AB 32 t bli h th fi t h i• AB 32 establishes the first comprehensive program of regulatory and market mechanisms in the nation to achieve GHG emissions reductions 

• AB 32 sets GHG emissions limit for 2020 at 1990 level (30% reduction from business as usual)– Acknowledges that 2020 is not the 

endpoint– Points way towards 80% reduction by 

20502050• California Air Resources Board (CARB) 

adopted a Scoping Plan to achieve AB 32’s GHG emissions reduction targetGHG emissions reduction target

Page 53: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

SB 375 Basics: Sustainable Communities d Cli t P t ti A t f 2008

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

and Climate Protection Act of 2008

• Directs ARB to develop passenger vehicle GHG reduction p p gtargets for CA’s 18 MPOs for 2020 and 2035

• Adds Sustainable Communities Strategy as new land use element of the RTPs

• Requires separate Alternative Planning Strategy if GHG targets not met

• Provides CEQA streamlining incentives for projects consistent with SCS/APS

• Coordinates state‐mandated housing allocation process (R i l H i N d All ti ) ith th i l(Regional Housing Need Allocation) with the regional transportation planning process

Page 54: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

California’s Three Pronged Approach to Reducing Transportation Greenhouse Gases

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Transportation Greenhouse Gases(with AB 32 Scoping Plan estimates for GHG reductions in 2020)

• Cleaner vehicles (Pavley AB 32) ‐ 38 mmtons/yr• Cleaner vehicles (Pavley, AB 32) ‐ 38 mmtons/yr• Cleaner fuels (Low‐Carbon Fuel Standard) ‐ 15 mmtons/yr• More sustainable communities (SB 375) ‐ 5 mmtons/yr

‐ Placeholder estimate – defers to SB 375 to establish targetCARB ti t d t d SB 375 t t lt i 3 t / i 2020 d‐ CARB estimates adopted SB 375 targets result in 3 mmtons/yr  in 2020 and 15 mmtons in 2035

Page 55: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Sustainable Communities Strategy,A St d i D i T i

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

A Study in Dynamic Tension

SCS Must –SCS Must 

• Accommodate all growth in regional housing demand – no net growth in incommutingg g

• Achieve CO2 reduction targets established by ARB

But SCS Must Not –

• Undermine Federal planning requirement for realistic demographic and revenue assumptions

• Interfere with local land use authorityInterfere with local land use authority

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How Has the Process Changed Under SB 375?

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

375?

Old – Sequential                      SB 375 ‐ IntegratedOld – Sequential                      SB 375 ‐ Integrated

RHNA

q gq g

RHNA

RTP

Projections

Projections RHNA

RTP

j

Page 57: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Key Regional Targets Advisory Committee R d ti

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Recommendations

• Called for ARB to implement a consistent target setting process statewidestatewide– Collaborate and exchange data with MPO– Identify an initial statewide target– Adjust initial target for particular regions,

if needed – Set draft and then final targets 

• Target metric: percent per‐capita GHG emissions reduction from 2005

Page 58: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

What Targets are CA’s “Big Four” MPOs to A hi ?

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Achieve? (per capita GHG reduction compared to 2005)

MPO 2020 2035

SanDAG 7% 13%SanDAG 7% 13%

SCAG 8% 13%

SACOG 7% 16%

MTC 7% 15%

Page 59: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Bay Area GHG Scenario Assessment (% it 2005 2035)

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

(% per capita - 2005 vs 2035)

2%0%2%12%18% +2%0%-2%-12%-18%

RTP Projections

RTP Updated Projections

Most aggressive land use

Combined land use + Pricing +

TDM

More aggressive

Page 60: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Existing operations and maintenance bli ti li it f di fl ibilit

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

obligations limit funding flexibility

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FOCUSREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

FOCUS

Where do We Grow?Where do We Grow? Where can we preserve open space?

P i i D lPriority Development Areas (PDAs):

• Locally nominated• Existing CommunitiesExisting Communities• Near Transit• Planned for more 

housing• 5% of region’s land 

area – can accommodate 50% of projected growth p j g

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Land Use ImpactsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Population Percent Change

Land Use Impacts

County2005 2035 RTP

Projection2035 Focused

Growth2005 to 2035

RTP Projections

2035 RTP Projections to 2035 Focused

Growth

S F i 795 800 969 000 1 008 500 22% 4%San Francisco 795,800 969,000 1,008,500 22% 4%

San Mateo 721,900 893,000 896,300 24% >1%

Santa Clara 1,763,000 2,431,400 2,587,000 38% 6%

Alameda 1,505,300 1,966,300 2,062,100 31% 5%

Contra Costa 1,023,400 1,322,900 1,373,400 29% 4%

Solano 421,600 506,500 497,600 20% -2%

Napa 133,700 148,800 147,200 11% -1%

Sonoma 479,200 561,500 564,500 17% 1%

Marin 252,600 274,300 278,800 9% 2%

T t l 7 096 500 9 073 700 9 412 200 28% 4%Total 7,096,500 9,073,700 9,412,200 28% 4%

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Land Use ImpactsREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

1 “Ideal” Land Use Scenario 9%/capita GHG

Land Use Impacts

1. “Ideal” Land Use Scenario = ‐9%/capita GHG reductionRe‐located the RTP projected households in “ideal” locationsp j‐ High job concentrations‐ Housing near high frequency transit

2. “Ideal” with No New Incommuting = ‐12%/capita GHG reductionBegan with “Ideal” distribution, and located 115,000 additional households (the expected new “in‐commuters”) in “ideal” locations.

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What is Assumed in the Bay Area’s Road P i i S i ?

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Pricing Scenario?

Auto Operating Costs

$0.60)

Higher Household Incomes

Are a Factor (2008 ACS)

$80 000

$90,000

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

ile (2

009

$)

$50 000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$-

$0.10

$0.20

$

Cos

t per

M

$20 000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$

MTC

C

Basic Fuel/M aintenance VM T/Carbon Tax $-

$10,000

$20,000

MTC SCAG SANDAG SACOG

Page 65: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

MTC Planning Committee Direction:REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

MTC Planning Committee Direction:

Examine 2035 target with land use/pricingExamine 2035 target with land use/pricing variations at 10%, 12% and 15% per capita GHG reductionreduction

Page 66: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

SF, Oakland, San Jose Population Increase f h P C it GHG R d ti (2035)

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

for each Per Capita GHG Reduction (2035)

City 2035 RTP 10%/capita 12%/capita 15%/capita 18%/capitaCity 2035 RTP compared to 2005

10%/capita reduction compared to 2035 RTP

12%/capita reduction compared to 2035 RTP

15%/capita reduction

compared to 2035 RTP

18%/capita reduction compared to 2035 RTP2035 RTP

SF 173 000 23 000 29 000 37 000 45 000SF +173,000 +23,000 +29,000 +37,000

Oak +151,000 +34,000 +42,000 +54,000

+45,000

+63,000

SJ +433,000 +38,000 +47,000 +61,000 +71,000

Page 67: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

VMT Charge per Mile for Each Per Capita R d ti S i (2035)

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Reduction Scenario (2035)

% it VMT T t l D i% per capita reduction

VMT charge/mi

Total Drive Cost/mi*

10% $0 08 $0 3810% $0.08 $0.38

12% $0.10 $0.40

15% $0.15 $0.45

18% $0.25 $0.5518% $0.25 $0.55

*Base drive cost = $0.30/mi (fuel = $0.19/mile; maint = $0.11/mile)

Page 68: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Other GHG Emission Reduction Strategies( kd d i 2035)

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

(avg. weekday pounds in 2035)

• TDM assumes additional 5% of workers with incomes above• TDM – assumes additional 5% of workers with incomes above $75,000/yr telecommute daily (compares to 5% of all Bay Area workers that currently work at home) ‐ 3% per capita d tireduction

Other TDM/TSM strategies quantified but not counted: • Accelerate ZEV share in passenger vehicle fleet: p g

247,000 add’l vehicles @ $10 billion = 5% per capita reduction• Install plug‐in converter kits for privately purchased hybrids

325 000 add’l kits @ $1 5 billion = 5% per capita reduction325,000 add l kits @ $1.5 billion = 5% per capita reduction• Reduce freeway speed limit to 55 mph:

5% per capita reduction (2020)

Page 69: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Emissions on a Typical Day Under Four S i

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenarios

93,20088 200 86 30088,200 86,300 83,300

73,900

Page 70: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

Conclusions: 2035 GHG TargetREAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Conclusions: 2035 GHG Target

• Bay Area already is embarked on a fairly aggressive focused growth strategy.

• Region is less advanced in pursuing road pricing, employer trip reduction or “smart driving”employer trip reduction, or  smart driving  programs.

• GHG per capita reduction target in 10‐12% rangeGHG per capita reduction target in 10 12% range might be achieved primarily through more focused growth.

• To get to the 15% range probably will require some reliance on road pricing and other strategies as well.

Page 71: Transportation and Climate Change Resource Center · 2019. 10. 23. · Where do we go from here? REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Where do we go from here? •• Goal 1: Promote

REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

For copies of these slides and webinar recording,  go to AASHTO’s website:http://environment.transportation.org/center/products_programs/climate_change_webinars.aspx

Th t i l ill l b il bl AASHTO’ li t h b itThese materials will also be available on AASHTO’s climate change website, where you can also find more information on climate change:

http://climatechange.transportation.org/webinars/

Thank you!