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www.harriswilliams.com
Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd, which is authorised andregulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Harris Williams & Co. is a trade name under which Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
PAGE |
www.harriswilliams.com
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
LUKEWARM SUPPLIER TIES HAMPER AUTO MAKERS
Top U.S. and Japanese auto makers are losing out on hundreds of millions ofdollars in potential cost savings because of lackluster relationships with their partssuppliers, a new report claims. Four out of the six auto makers operatingmanufacturing plants in North America experienced erosion in their supplierrapport over the past year, according to an annual survey of the parts makers.Nissan Motor Co., which is fighting to lift its market share, posted the biggest dropas it intensified the pressure on its parts makers to reduce their prices.
Wall Street Journal
WHAT WE’RE READING
RISE IN CAR MAINTENANCE INVESTMENTS IN UK AFTERMARKET
Frost & Sullivan’s new analysis, The Importance of the UK Aftermarket to the UKEconomy, highlights how technology is changing the automotive parts and serviceindustry. Although the research focuses on the UK, the findings have implicationsfor other markets. Vehicle spend will rise as the more electrical components andfewer mechanical parts are replaced. While costs for parts are increasing, theprice of service is declining. About 64% of consumer spend went to independentparts sellers and workshops, where prices are much lower. Auto parts dealershipsand authorized repairers captured the remaining 36% of industry revenue, but thisshare is in decline as vehicles age (currently at an average of 7.8 years in the UK)and consumers migrate to lower-priced parts and independent service providers.
Forbes
1
CONTENTS
M&A TRANSACTIONS
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
OUR GROUP
CONTACTS
UNITED STATES
Frank MountcastleManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0124
Jason BassManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0132
Joe ConnerManaging Director [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0151
Jershon JonesDirector [email protected]+1 (804) 932-1356
Jeff BurkettDirector [email protected] +1 (804) 932-1334
Jeff KiddVice President [email protected] +1 (804) 915-0178
James O’MalleyVice President [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0165
EUROPE
Jeffery PerkinsManaging Director [email protected]+49 (0) 69 3650638 00
The U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to grow at a compound annualgrowth rate of 3.7% through 2019, according to the “2016 Joint Channel ForecastModel” produced jointly by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association andthe Auto Care Association. The 2016 Joint Channel Forecast Model also predictsthat the total aftermarket sales will grow from $257.4 billion in 2015 to $296.3 billionin 2019, an increase of nearly $39 billion over the four year period.
Modern Tire Dealer
U.S. AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET WILL GROW 3.7% THROUGH 2019
Demographic shifts in the North American vehicle market are necessitatingchange in how the automotive industry operates, especially in the downstreamactivities of vehicle repair and maintenance, a recent study by research firm Frost& Sullivan found. “The automotive industry has traditionally been a male-dominated sector and, historically, this did not pose a challenge for the industry inappealing to its customers, who were also predominantly male,” the firm said in itsstudy. “By empowering female customers with knowledge about the productsthey are buying and having installed in their cars, suppliers and retailers can morereadily ensure long-term brand loyalty and presence.”
Tire Business
FEMALE VEHICLE OWNERS DETERMINING AFTERMARKET STRATEGY
E-COMMERCE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET
The transformative effects of e-commerce and the opportunities it presents acrossvarious industries and markets have been well documented. For most companies,developing an e-commerce strategy is no longer merely a consideration or anexperiment, but integral to their business. Compared to many other industries,however, the automotive aftermarket’s e-commerce activity is less prominent. Thisis largely due to the complex nature of the industry’s products, supply chains, andchannel relationships. Innovative players who can overcome these challengeshave the potential to capitalize on a growing but underdeveloped service thatcould disrupt the way this industry conducts business.
China Briefing
PAGE |
Date Target Business Description Acquirer
6/2/2016* FTE Automotive GmbH Manufactures brake and clutch actuation systems. Valeo SA
6/2/2016* OEConnection LLC Provides original equipment replacement parts solutions. Prov idence Equity Partners,
Inc.
5/23/2016* Bridgestone Firestone
Venezolana CA
Offers tires and rubber products in Venezuela. Corimon CA
5/17/2016 4Knines Manufactures and supplies dog seat covers for cars. Hall Capital Partners
5/16/2016* Rear View Safety, Inc. Prov ides back up camera systems and v ideo-based road safety
solutions for passenger vehicles.
Safe Fleet Acquisition Corp.
5/11/2016* Grand Rapids Auto Auction, Inc. Prov ides dealer-to-dealer auto auction serv ices within the used car
remarketing industry.
XLerate Group / Huron
Capital Partners
5/9/2016* Johann Hay GmbH und Co. KG
Automobiltechnik
Manufactures and supplies machined and forged components for
automotive, commercial vehicles, and bearing industries in Germany
and internationally.
Musashi Seimitsu Industry
Co., Ltd.
4/19/2016 Laydon Composites Ltd. Designs and manufactures aerodynamic devices for heavy-duty trucks
and trailers in North America and internationally.
WABCO Holdings Inc.
4/18/2016 Sperry & Rice Manufacturing
Company, LLC
Manufactures and markets rubber and sponge extrusions for appliance,
automotive, construction, and truck and bus industries.
Salt Creek Capital I I , LLC
4/15/2016 Zitco, Inc. Distributes automotive paints and coatings. Finishmaster Inc.
4/11/2016* Kovatch Mobile Equipment
Corporation
Designs, manufactures, and distributes customized specialty trucks,
chassis, and vehicles.
REV Group, Inc.
4/1/2016 DYK Automotive, LLC & AAHC,
Inc.
Distributes products to the automotive aftermarket throughout the
United States.
The Sterling Group
3/30/2016 Take 5 Oil Change LLC Provides oil change serv ices for vehicles in the United States. Driven Brands, Inc.
3/24/2016* ASIMCO NVH Technologies Co.,
Ltd.
Manufactures automotive components such as bushings, body mounts,
and engine mounts.
Zhengzhou Coal Mining
Machinery Group Co., Ltd.
3/11/2016* Cruise Automation, Inc. Develops and manufactures autonomous vehicle technologies. General Motors Company
3/1/2016 Jiffy-tite Company Inc. Manufactures fluid hose couplers for the automotive industry. Oetiker Limited
2/29/2016 Pittsburgh Glass Works LLC Manufactures and distributes automotive glass in the United States and
internationally.
LKQ Corp.
2/17/2016 Texas Hydraulics, Inc. Operates as a custom manufacturer of fluid power components for
original equipment manufacturers.
Wynnchurch Capital, LLC
M&A TRANSACTIONS
2
RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS1,2
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
*Denotes pending transactions
PAGE |
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
TEV / LTM EBITDA TEV / 2016P EBITDA
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2012 – 2015) AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2015 – 2017P)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2012 – 2015) AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2015 – 2017P)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
7.0x
7.9x
11.4x
12.1x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Distributors and Retailers
6.1x
9.0x
11.5x
11.8x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Distributors and Retailers
(1.8%)
(0.7%)
6.6%
13.9%
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
(0.4%)
4.3%
5.3%
6.7%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Suppliers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
4.8%
5.9%
7.0%
16.1%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Suppliers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
(0.3%)
7.0%
9.2%
16.8%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Suppliers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Distributors and Retailers
PAGE |
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
4
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
(Indexed to June 10, 2015)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH) MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16
Suppliers Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Service Providers Vehicle Manufacturers
S&P 500 Index
(3.2%)
(1.7%)
(0.9%)
0.6%
1.6%
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Suppliers
Dealerships and
Service Providers
Distributors and
Retailers
S&P 500
(31.9%)
(22.3%)
(14.0%)
(0.7%)
10.1%
Dealerships and
Service Providers
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Suppliers
S&P 500
Distributors and
Retailers
PAGE |
OUR GROUP
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the transportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & LogisticsGroup serves companies in a broad range of attractive niches, including third-party logistics (3PL), truck, rail, marineand air transportation, transportation equipment, and the automotive and heavy duty vehicle market.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
RECENTLY CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
NICHE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY
VEHICLE
THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
AIR TRANSPORTATION
5
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
and
in partnership with
and
RCL Services Group
has sold
tohas been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has acquired
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
has merged with
an operating company of
in a recapitalization by
and
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
Energy, Power& Infrastructure
IndustrialsHealthcare & Life Sciences
Transportation & Logistics
Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services
Business Services
Building Products & Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Specialty Distribution
Consumer
PAGE |
HARRIS WILLIAMS & CO. OFFICE LOCATIONS
UNITED STATES EUROPE
BostonTwo International Place24th FloorBoston, Massachusetts 02110Phone: +1 (617) 482-7501
Cleveland1900 East 9th Street20th FloorCleveland, Ohio 44114Phone: +1 (216) 689-2400
Minneapolis222 South 9th StreetSuite 3350Minneapolis, Minnesota 55402Phone: +1 (612) 359-2700
Richmond (Headquarters)1001 Haxall Point9th FloorRichmond, Virginia 23219Phone: +1 (804) 648-0072
San Francisco575 Market Street31st FloorSan Francisco, California 94105Phone: +1 (415) 288-4260
FrankfurtBockenheimer Landstrasse 33-3560325 FrankfurtGermanyPhone: +49 069 3650638 00
London63 Brook StreetLondon W1K 4HS, EnglandPhone: +44 (0) 20 7518 8900
NETWORK OFFICES
Beijing
Hong Kong
Mumbai
New Delhi
Shanghai
Transportation & Logistics
Harris Williams & Co. has a broad range of industry expertise, which creates powerful opportunities.Our clients benefit from our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence andcollaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For moreinformation, visit our website at www.harriswilliams.com/industries.
6
OUR FIRM
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Jun-15 Dec-15 Current 2016P 2017P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $9,418 $32.75 (0.7%) (45.9%) $61.11 53.6% 10.7x 7.4x 6.9x 6.4x 6.0x
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company 1,624 30.56 (4.4%) (18.3%) 43.40 70.4% 5.1x 5.0x 2.8x 3.2x 3.5x
Dorman Products, Inc. 1,765 53.32 (0.5%) 6.7% 56.73 94.0% 11.4x 9.7x 10.5x 9.9x 9.2x
Federal-Mogul Holdings Corp 4,346 7.97 (9.1%) (35.6%) 12.43 64.1% 8.6x 7.8x 7.1x 5.8x 5.4x
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 12,544 27.01 (2.3%) (14.2%) 35.30 76.5% 6.1x 6.4x 5.9x 4.8x 4.7x
Modine Manufacturing Company 556 9.71 (6.5%) (13.8%) 11.75 82.6% 5.6x 8.4x 2.5x 4.7x 4.1x
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 535 27.74 (9.0%) (7.0%) 41.03 67.6% 14.4x 19.6x 12.0x 6.3x 5.6x
Standard Motor Products, Inc. 890 37.20 0.4% 0.6% 45.72 81.4% 8.5x 9.0x 9.1x 8.0x 7.2x
Tenneco Inc. 4,208 53.54 4.3% (10.6%) 61.73 86.7% 6.3x 5.4x 5.3x 5.0x 4.7x
Visteon Corporation 2,511 72.49 (1.0%) (33.4%) 121.65 59.6% 8.8x 6.7x 14.8x 7.7x 6.9x
Median (1.7%) (14.0%) 73.5% 8.6x 7.6x 7.0x 6.1x 5.5x
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $12,392 $152.55 4.8% (5.4%) $201.24 75.8% 10.7x 9.7x 10.7x 10.0x 9.3x
AutoZone, Inc. 27,792 751.14 (2.4%) 10.1% 810.00 92.7% 9.7x 12.5x 12.1x 11.8x 11.1x
Genuine Parts Company 14,807 95.12 (1.0%) 4.7% 100.00 95.1% 11.5x 10.5x 11.8x 11.4x 10.4x
LKQ Corporation 12,500 32.14 (0.5%) 9.3% 34.26 93.8% 13.1x 12.0x 14.5x 11.8x 10.3x
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 26,774 259.84 0.6% 15.3% 277.96 93.5% 15.8x 15.6x 14.8x 13.9x 12.7x
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 165 3.93 19.5% 77.0% 4.39 89.5% NA NA NM 13.3x 11.3x
Uni-Select Inc. 1,210 26.02 2.9% 43.4% 27.08 96.1% 10.6x 9.8x 12.1x 11.5x 10.3x
Median 0.6% 10.1% 93.5% 11.1x 11.2x 12.1x 11.8x 10.4x
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $3,076 $54.10 (0.9%) (38.3%) $96.58 56.0% 11.9x 10.0x 9.5x 9.3x 9.0x
AutoNation, Inc. 11,749 47.27 1.9% (25.0%) 66.63 70.9% 13.0x 12.2x 11.8x 11.5x 10.6x
Boyd Group Income Fund 1,142 56.66 0.2% 31.1% 61.88 91.6% 9.1x 10.0x 15.2x 12.0x 10.4x
CarMax, Inc. 20,377 49.14 (3.0%) (32.6%) 73.19 67.1% NM NM NM 16.4x 15.5x
Copart, Inc. 6,252 48.88 14.4% 36.7% 50.08 97.6% 12.2x 12.5x 14.4x 13.8x 12.9x
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. 4,088 56.67 (6.1%) (36.9%) 97.34 58.2% 11.8x 10.7x 9.9x 9.6x 10.1x
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 7,319 40.29 3.0% 5.5% 41.58 96.9% 11.8x 11.2x 11.0x 9.8x 8.9x
Lithia Motors, Inc. Class A 3,908 74.99 (4.6%) (33.3%) 126.56 59.3% 16.4x 13.6x 10.1x 9.6x 9.0x
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. 2,293 60.59 (13.7%) (3.7%) 77.00 78.7% 15.9x 16.6x 14.2x 13.3x 11.8x
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 7,967 35.52 (0.6%) (31.9%) 54.39 65.3% 14.9x 13.1x 12.2x 11.6x 10.8x
Sonic Automotive, Inc. Class A 3,050 16.73 (1.4%) (32.2%) 25.77 64.9% 11.1x 10.8x 10.1x 10.0x 9.5x
Median (0.9%) (31.9%) 67.1% 12.1x 11.7x 11.4x 11.5x 10.4x
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Jun-15 Dec-15 Current 2016P 2017P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $146,391 $78.36 (6.0%) (30.4%) $117.93 66.4% 7.7x 7.9x 7.5x 8.9x 8.6x
Daimler AG 164,174 63.70 (4.2%) (32.8%) 98.00 65.0% 7.0x 5.8x 7.1x 8.0x 7.2x
Ford Motor Company 153,501 12.98 (1.8%) (14.8%) 15.84 81.9% 13.2x 10.8x 8.6x 11.5x 11.2x
General Motors Company 94,341 29.08 (4.7%) (18.6%) 36.88 78.9% 7.7x 6.2x 5.7x 5.7x 5.6x
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 14,360 43.86 (3.7%) (19.6%) 60.67 72.3% 11.2x 11.1x 10.8x 10.8x 10.3x
Navistar International Corporation 5,495 13.15 16.7% (47.8%) 25.12 52.3% 12.5x 8.7x 9.6x 9.7x 8.8x
Oshkosh Corp 4,294 45.11 (0.1%) (13.0%) 51.57 87.5% 8.5x 7.6x 9.2x 9.5x 7.8x
PACCAR Inc 24,427 54.55 (2.6%) (16.1%) 66.43 82.1% 9.5x 6.7x 7.5x 9.0x 9.4x
Toyota Motor Corp. 286,492 51.06 2.1% (25.0%) 68.50 74.5% 8.8x 8.8x 7.7x 8.7x 8.3x
Volkswagen AG Pref 202,279 137.64 (5.7%) (42.8%) 249.53 55.2% 6.9x 6.3x 8.1x 6.7x 6.1x
Median (3.2%) (22.3%) 73.4% 8.7x 7.7x 7.9x 9.0x 8.5x
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
9
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P
Automotive Aftermarket
Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $7,178 $7,435 $8,304 $8,025 $8,025 $9,592 3.8% 9.3% $1,106 $1,224 $1,385 $1,330 $1,330 $1,555 6.4% 8.1%
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company 4,201 3,439 3,421 2,959 2,959 3,032 (11.0%) 1.2% 526 394 436 541 541 470 1.0% (6.8%)
Dorman Products, Inc. 570 664 751 803 803 945 12.1% 8.5% 112 138 153 162 162 192 13.0% 8.8%
Federal-Mogul Holdings Corp 6,664 6,786 7,317 7,419 7,419 7,820 3.6% 2.7% 448 569 573 570 570 795 8.4% 18.1%
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 20,992 19,540 18,138 16,443 16,443 16,024 (7.8%) (1.3%) 1,824 2,107 2,251 2,085 2,085 2,662 4.6% 13.0%
Modine Manufacturing Company 1,376 1,478 1,496 1,463 1,463 1,386 2.1% (2.6%) 101 121 110 224 224 135 30.3% (22.2%)
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 406 259 302 369 369 476 (3.2%) 13.6% 0 46 38 79 85 96 NM 10.2%
Standard Motor Products, Inc. 949 984 980 972 972 1,052 0.8% 4.1% 89 107 113 92 92 124 1.4% 15.7%
Tenneco Inc. 7,363 7,964 8,420 8,209 8,209 9,112 3.7% 5.4% 649 707 752 785 785 910 6.5% 7.6%
Visteon Corporation 6,857 7,439 7,509 3,245 3,245 3,405 (22.1%) 2.4% 493 590 663 265 265 368 (18.7%) 17.9%
Total $56,556 $55,988 $56,639 $49,906 $49,906 $52,845 (1.8%) 4.3% $5,348 $6,002 $6,475 $6,134 $6,140 $7,307 5.9% 7.0%
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $6,205 $6,494 $9,844 $9,737 $9,737 $9,539 16.2% (1.0%) $847 $901 $1,244 $1,147 $1,147 $1,326 10.6% 7.5%
AutoZone, Inc. 8,604 9,148 9,475 10,187 10,187 11,191 5.8% 4.8% 1,841 2,002 2,081 2,223 2,223 2,525 6.5% 6.6%
Genuine Parts Company 13,014 14,078 15,342 15,280 15,280 16,001 5.5% 2.3% 1,122 1,117 1,273 1,266 1,266 1,400 4.1% 5.2%
LKQ Corporation 4,123 5,063 6,740 7,193 7,193 10,283 20.4% 19.6% 493 627 790 852 852 1,218 20.0% 19.5%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 6,182 6,649 7,216 7,967 7,967 9,206 8.8% 7.5% 1,154 1,287 1,465 1,743 1,743 2,108 14.7% 10.0%
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 304 255 284 291 291 320 (1.4%) 4.8% 8 3 8 6 6 15 (8.5%) 57.2%
Uni-Select Inc. 1,821 1,788 1,784 1,355 1,355 1,330 (9.4%) (0.9%) 90 92 104 94 94 118 1.5% 11.9%
Total $40,253 $43,474 $50,685 $52,010 $52,010 $57,870 6.6% 5.3% $5,554 $6,029 $6,964 $7,331 $7,331 $8,709 7.0% 16.8%
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $4,640 $5,335 $5,868 $6,588 $6,588 $6,870 12.4% 2.1% $209 $270 $313 $331 $331 $344 16.6% 1.9%
AutoNation, Inc. 15,669 17,518 19,109 20,862 20,862 22,835 10.0% 4.6% 737 843 909 998 998 1,105 10.6% 5.2%
Boyd Group Income Fund 435 561 764 918 918 1,187 28.3% 13.7% 30 40 77 79 79 110 38.5% 17.7%
CarMax, Inc. 10,963 12,574 14,269 15,150 15,150 17,385 11.4% 7.1% 529 595 724 804 804 1,307 15.0% 27.5%
Copart, Inc. 924 1,046 1,163 1,146 1,146 1,337 7.4% 8.0% 346 342 363 394 394 491 4.4% 11.6%
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. 7,476 8,919 9,938 10,633 10,633 11,655 12.5% 4.7% 269 346 375 407 407 405 14.8% (0.2%)
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 1,963 2,173 2,365 2,640 2,640 3,246 10.4% 10.9% 457 451 574 640 640 822 11.9% 13.3%
Lithia Motors, Inc. Class A 3,316 4,006 5,390 7,864 7,864 8,993 33.4% 6.9% 166 207 266 377 377 432 31.5% 7.0%
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. 732 831 894 944 944 1,099 8.8% 7.9% 103 127 147 161 161 192 16.0% 9.3%
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 13,164 14,705 17,177 19,285 19,285 21,235 13.6% 4.9% 419 498 574 645 645 731 15.4% 6.5%
Sonic Automotive, Inc. Class A 8,365 8,843 9,197 9,624 9,624 10,223 4.8% 3.1% 289 300 294 307 307 315 2.0% 1.4%
Total $67,648 $76,512 $86,134 $95,653 $95,653 $106,065 13.9% 6.7% $3,553 $4,019 $4,617 $5,142 $5,142 $6,253 16.1% 9.2%
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
10
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016
Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $98,709 $100,976 $106,648 $102,215 $102,215 $109,000 1.2% 3.3% $20,286 $19,443 $21,734 $19,303 $19,303 $16,734 (1.6%) (6.9%)
Daimler AG 146,811 156,635 172,268 165,747 165,747 176,972 4.1% 3.3% 19,691 21,079 24,558 25,604 25,604 22,543 9.1% (6.2%)
Ford Motor Company 134,266 146,917 144,077 149,558 149,558 147,895 3.7% (0.6%) 12,958 13,183 11,324 15,557 15,557 13,577 6.3% (6.6%)
General Motors Company 152,256 155,427 155,929 152,356 152,356 148,281 0.0% (1.3%) 10,670 12,708 8,853 15,518 15,518 16,877 13.3% 4.3%
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 5,581 5,900 6,229 5,995 5,995 5,516 2.4% (4.1%) 1,183 1,324 1,452 1,330 1,330 1,402 4.0% 2.7%
Navistar International Corporation 12,948 10,775 10,806 10,140 10,140 8,359 (7.8%) (9.2%) (374) (192) 295 567 567 611 NM 3.8%
Oshkosh Corp 8,181 7,665 6,808 6,098 6,098 6,432 (9.3%) 2.7% 500 644 622 523 523 557 1.5% 3.1%
PACCAR Inc 17,051 17,124 18,997 19,115 19,115 16,991 3.9% (5.7%) 2,458 2,648 2,899 3,198 3,198 2,703 9.2% (8.1%)
Toyota Motor Corp. 266,131 256,480 247,980 236,527 236,527 266,357 (3.9%) 6.1% 30,332 35,160 38,164 37,306 37,306 34,306 7.1% (4.1%)
Volkswagen AG Pref 247,486 261,550 268,549 236,524 236,524 243,319 (1.5%) 1.4% 29,739 30,822 33,686 24,722 24,722 32,757 (6.0%) 15.1%
Total $1,089,420 $1,119,448 $1,138,291 $1,084,275 $1,084,275 $1,129,121 (0.7%) (0.4%) $127,443 $136,819 $143,587 $143,628 $143,628 $142,067 4.8% (0.3%)
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P
Automotive Aftermarket
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
SOURCES
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
1. FactSet.
2. MergerMarket.
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DISCLOSURES
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AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JUNE 2016