Transport Model for Scotland SHS-based inputs and forecast trends SHS User DayDavid Connolly and Lucy Barker| November 2007

Overview of Presentation

Overview of the use of SHS in the Transport Model for Scotland

General Trends in Travel Behaviour (SHS + TMfS)

Impact of Age and the Ageing Population on Travel Behaviour

Overview of Transport Model for Scotland

Transport Model for Scotland

Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) is: A multi-modal transport and land-use model Car, goods vehicles, bus & rail Week-day travel (AM peak, Inter-peak and PM

peak) covers all of mainland Scotland 2005 Base Year plus ability to forecast 2007,

2012, 2017, 2022, … Web-site: www.tmfs.org.uk

SHS Data in Transport Model for Scotland

The calibration of TMfS has used the following SHS data Travel Diary

- trip rates by car ownership- trip length distributions by journey purpose- mode choice proportions by car ownership- trip rates by mode, age and gender- Time of day profiles (for annualisation) etc

Household Data Household car ownership by urban/rural

classification Splitting Census data by SHS household types and

worker-type (manual/semi-skilled/skilled)(We have also used 2001 Census Travel to Work Data and GROS National Demographic Projections)

General Demographics

Scottish Demographics - Population and Households (Source: TELMoS)

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Year

PopulationHouseholds

+ 1.1 %

+ 8.5 %

Scottish Demographics – Ageing population (Source: TELMoS)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Year

ChildrenRetired

- 13 %

+ 24 %

Impacts of Age on Transport Behaviour

Person Trips per Day by Mode (Source: SHS)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.816

-19

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80+

Age

Pers

on T

rips

per D

ay

Car Driver

CarPassenger

PublicTransport

Walk orCycle

Other

Car Driving Trip Rates by Age and Journey Purpose (Source: SHS)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

16-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80+

Age

Car D

rivin

g Tr

ips

per D

ay

Commuting

Shopping

Education

Business

Other

Total

Car Driving Trip Rates by Age and Gender (Source: SHS)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.816

-19

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80+

Age

Car D

river

Trip

s pe

r Day

MaleFemale.

Car Driving Distance by Age & Gender (Source: SHS)

0

5

10

15

20

2516

-19

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80+

Age

Car D

river

Km

per

Adu

lt

MaleFemale.

Car Driving Distance per Trip (Source: SHS)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1216

-19

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80+

Age

Car D

river

Dist

ance

per

Trip

Bus Kms per Person (Source: SHS Data)

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

Bus

Kms

per P

erso

n

Up to 60 yrs60+ yrs

Impacts of Household Structure on Travel Behaviour

Household Car Ownership by Household Demographics (Source: SHS)

72%58% 50%

20% 12%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 Ad

ult

(pen

sione

r)

1 Ad

ult

(with

child

ren)

1 Ad

ult (

noch

ildre

n)

>=2

Adul

ts(n

och

ildre

n)

>=2

Adul

ts(w

ithch

ildre

n) Tota

l

Household Type

% N

o Ca

r Ava

ilabl

e

Car Trip Rates by Household Type (Source: SHS)

1.05

1.95

1.21

0.05

1.80

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0 Car 1 Car & 1Adult

1 Car & 2+Adults

2+ Cars Total

Car D

river

Trip

s pe

r Adu

lt

Car Kms by Household Type (Source: SHS)

11

23

12

1

18

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 Car 1 Car & 1 Adult 1 Car & 2+Adults

2+ Cars Total

Car D

river

Km

per

Adu

lt

Transport Behaviour – Trends and Forecasts

Car ownership by population in a household (Source: TELMoS)

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Year

Popu

latio

n wh

o liv

e in

a h

ouse

hold

No car1+ cars2+ cars

Car driver/vehicle trips per day

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.819

99

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Year

Vehi

cle tr

ips

per d

ay b

y ad

ult

SHSTMfS

Car/Vehicle Kms per Person

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1619

99

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Year

Vehi

cle k

m p

er a

dult

SHSTMfS

Time lost due to congestion (Source: TMfS)

00.020.040.060.08

0.10.120.140.160.18

0.2

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Year

Dela

y [m

in]

AMIPPM

Emissions of pollutants from traffic(Source: TMfS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

12020

05

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Year

Pollu

tant

s

Carbon MonoxidePollutants [CO]Oxides of NitrogenPollutants [NOX]Particulate Pollutants[PM10]

CO2 emissions from traffic (Source: TMfS)

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

11220

05

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Year

Pollu

tant

s

Carbon Dioxide [CO2]

Conclusions

The ageing population will have significant impacts on travel behaviour

- Car use decreases sharply with age- Likely decrease in travel to education- SHS might also be used to detect impacts of the

National Concessionary Travel Scheme TMfS suggests growth in car ownership will outweigh

the decrease in car use due to the ageing population As a result, congestion will continue to grow steadily

over time Pollutants from traffic will decrease (due to fuel/engine

improvements) However, TMfS predicts CO2 emissions will grow

? ?

? ??

?

Questions & Discussion