JOTRANSPORT ENERGY ISSUES: EVALUATION OFCONSERVATION MEASURES

KIRSTEN SCHOUPostgraduate Research StudentSchool of Economic and

Financial StudiesMacquarie Univel:sity

and

Tuto.IDepartment of EconomicsKUl:'ing-Gai College of Advanced

Education

ABSTRACT,: The ease for conseT'ving petroleum energyin transportation is presented and the needfoY' government policies to achieve desiredconservation goals is established. Energyconservation is only one of many objectivesin transport planning and policy, andconservation measures must therefore beevaluated in the context of' other objectives"The most promising areas for transport energyconservation are identified, and selectedpolicy measures are evaluated" In order toachieve the most significant impacts".petrol,eumconservation measures shoul,d be directedprimaril,y at the private car. The car hasconsiderable potential, to adapt to the needsfor energy conservation" and ollers the mostimportant option for conserving transportenergy -without imping'ing on people's travelpatterns and prelerences"

Paper for Presentation inSession 10

475

TRANSPORT ENERGY ISSUES

THE ISSUES IN CONTEXT

Energy efficiency in transportation has beenidentified as one of the ten most critical issues in trans'­portation by the Executive Committee of the TransportationResearch Board (1976) in Washington. The extent to whichspecific energy conservation policies are necessary ordesirable in Australia depends on the answers to fourquestions:

1. Should we conserve transport energy'?2" If so, how much should we conse:rve and by when?3. To what extent can we rely on the private market

system to accomplish conservation goals'?4. If government policies for energy conservation

in transportation are needed, what. are thepolicy options available?

The emphasis of this paper will be on the issue ofidentifying and evaluating alternative policies for energyconse:rvation in transportation. However, it is thoughtdesirable to briefly address the first three questionsstated in order to place the policy issues in a propercontext w

Should we conserve tI:ansport ene:rgy?Energy conservat~on 1n transportat1on is essentially

synonymous with conservation of petroleum, given the factthat transport is almost wholly (98%) dependent on petroleumfuel. In view of the prospects of rapidly increasing oilp:rices, increasing dependence on oil imports and insecurityof supply (Australian Transport Advisory Council 1978)there appears to be a strong case fOJ::: conserving petroleumenergy.. However, energy conservation has to be consideredrelative to other objectives pursued in transport planningand operation such as enhancing road safety, increasingeconomic efficiency and level of user services, keeping downcosts and maintaining or improving accessibility tooppor'tuni ties.

How much should we conserve and by when?W1thout ventur1ng 1nto the d1ff1cult and uncertain

area of specific forecasting, we here proceed on the premisethat the consumption of petroleum by transport should bereduced to virtually zero by the year 2000 and should bereduced substantially by 1985.. While a considerablemargin of error may be involved, this aim is suggested byAustralian and World crude oil depletion rates. Beyondconservation, the inexorable long term depletion of worldoil reserves necessitates substitution of alternativeenergy sources"

476

SCHOU

Will the market work it out'?There are a number of important reasons why we cannot

wholly rely on the market mechanism to bring about the desiredconservation of transportation energy. The major reasonsinclude the insensitivity of the demand for petl::'ol toincreases in the price of petrol as well as the existence ofimperfections on the supply side of the markets for petrol·-eum, motor vehicles and transport services. (1) Theinsensitivity of the demand for petrol to its price isevidenced by numeJ:'OllS overseas studies (for example CharlesRiver Associates 1976, Hartgen 1975, McGillivray 1976,Skinner 1975), and the few existing Australian studies(Schou and Johnson 1978, Hensher 1977a) have confirmed thisfinding. The implication of the inelasticity of demand forpetrol with respect to price is that even sUbstantial pricerises are not likely to result in satisfactory fuel savings.FOl:' instance, a short·-run elasticity in the range of '-.02: to-.07, as estimated by Australian studies (Schou and Johnson1978 and Hensher 1977a) , indicate that a 10 per cent increasein the price of petroleum would only decrease demand by about.2 to .7 per cent.

The private market system is not wholly capable ofensuring that scarce energy reSOUt'ces are allocated in themost efficient way over time within the t:['ansport sector.As a consequence, deliberate government policy is calledfor to achieve the necessary conservation of transpoJ::'tenergy and ensure a smooth adjustment and transition toalternative energy sources.

Energy conservation in the context of other policyobjectivesIn order to determine the optimal mix of policies

for energy conservation in transportation, researchers,planners and policy makers need to explore all possiblealternative measures and their effects; and attempt toevaluate and compare different meaSUI'es. It is notsufficient to examine the technical potential for energysavings by various measures, as individual preferencesand social acceptance ar'e crucial determinants of theactual success of a par'ticulaI conservation policy. Onthe premise that the overall concern is with maximisingthe net social benefit of scarce resources, I'atherthanjust minimising energy consumption, it is clearly desir­able that a broad range of impacts be taken into accountin the evaluation.

1 The large capital investments required, long leadtimes and uncertainty associated with the developmentof new technology, and the existence of economies ofscale have given rise to oligopolistic marketstructures and, in the case of many transport services,government monopolies.

477

TRANSPORT ENERGY ISSUES

Conservation measures must be evaluated in thecontext: of both the multiple obj ectives of transport policiesand the- total community resource costs they imply. Transportserves a variety of social and economic needs, and trade'~offs

may be necessary between energy conservation and other policyobjectives concerned with, for example, traffic congestion,accessibility, mobility, safety and pollution. There is nouniversal prescript,ion for energy conservation in transport;it is important that a many'-pronged approach should bemaintained as there is no unique optimal course of action.

The problem of criteria for evaluationAlternative pOl~cies designed to conserve energy in

transportation are likely to have disparate social, economicand environmental impacts, and it is therefore desirable toestablish a set of criteria on the basis of which variouspolicies can be evaluated and compared. The criteria forevaluation should include not only the energy effects butalso all the other significant impacts of a policy measure.Relevant considerations may include capital investmentsrequired, total user costs, tirnirlg of conservation benefits,tJ::'avel times, vehicle miles travelled, level of services,accessibility to opportunities, individual preferences,emission levels, safety, employment, distribution ofincome, ease of implementation and the likelihood ofachievement.

It would clearly be desirable to have a set of welldefined criteria on the basis of which consistent evalu­ation could be undertaken of policy measu:r'es and all thetrrelevant effects. However, as suggested by the vast arrayof considerations involved, it is no easy task to definesuch criteria. The difficulty in defining suitablecriteria (i.e., principles to be taken as standards injudging) arises partially from the fact that value judge­ments are necessarily involved in establishing prioritiesand trade'-offs, and it is inevitable that different personswill adopt different, albeit quite valid, criteria. To theknowledge of this author no attempt has been made in theAustralian context to compare and evaluate policies on thebasis of clearly defined criteria. The establishment ofsuch criteria remains an unresolved issue, and one whichdeserves more attention by planners and policy makers. Itis, however, considered beyond the scope of this paper tomake a se:rious attempt at resolving this issue.

In the remaining parts of the paper the mostpromising areas for energy conservation in transport willbe identified, and selected policy measures will bediscussed.

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SCROU

IDENTIFICATION AND EVAlUATION OF CONSERVATION MEASURES

Identification of promising policiesIn the short term we are confined to looking for

opportunities to conserve petroleum within the transportsystem as it exists today, and that means a systemdominated by the private automobile. In Australia overhalf of all car/station wagon milage occurs in capital cityurban areas (Nicholas Clark 1975b, p.8). City drivingtypically involves low occupancy rates, I stop.-start t

driving, short trips and high fuel consumption. It has beenestimated that the energy intensity of urban dr'iving isnearly three times as great as that of non-urban driving(Nicholas Clark 19'75b, p .. 78). On this basis it may beargued, that in order to achieve the most significant impacts,fuel conservation measures should be directed pri.m~u:·ily aturban passenger transport and at the private car!l)The private motorist, consuming about 60 per cent of transportpetroleum energy, has a relatively low perception of realmotoring and fuel costs, and is not e~~?cted to be veryresponsive to petrol price increases .. l ) If the potentialfuel savings offered by a range of conservation optionsconcerned with the private car are to be realised, govern·­ment policy initiatives will be requi:red.

Selected policy measuresThe pOll-cy measures to be discussed here fall into

five categories:

L Improving the fuel efficiency of automobile usethrough operational changes or increasingoccupancy rates.

2.. Inducing shifts to more efficient modes.

3. Improving the inherent efficiency of the car modeby promoting shifts to smaller or more fuelefficient vehicles and improving the technicalefficiency of vehicles through design and otherchanges.

1 Although energy conservation measures could be suggestedfor other sectors as well, there is little doubt thatmeasures affecting the level and efficiency of fuelconsumption of the private car in urban passengertransport will be of prime importance.

2 In the rail, sea, air and road freight sectors wheremost of the task is performed by. government andcommercial operators, the perception of fuel cost isrelatively high and market fcr:ces might be expected tobring about the appropriate increases in energy effic­iency.. (Australian Transport Advisory Council 1978).

479

TRANSPORT ENERGY ISSUES

4. Encouraging the introduction of new technologyinvolving substitute fuels and unconventionalpropulsion systems.

5. Reducing travel demand by modifying land usepatterns and employing advanced communications.

These measures will now be discussed in tUJ:n and anattempt will be made to evaluate their impacts and likelysuccess.

Improving the Fuel Efficiency of Automobile Use

Operational changesFor any level of automobile use important fuel

savings can be obtained by reducing speeds, improvingtraffic flows, modifying driving habits and keepingvehicles properly maintained. The fuel consumption of aparticular vehicle is highly dependent on the averagespeed and idle time during a journey. Tests have demon­strated that the lowest fuel consumption occurs at a steadyspeed of between 50 and 65 kph. (Or ski 1974). Fuel con···sumption rises very steeply as speed increases above thislevel or, as is probably more likely in Australia citydriving, falls below that level. At peak hour when aver'agespeeds are low, the average fuel consumption can exceed theoptimum by a factor of two. In Sydney about 30 per centof petrol is consumed at speeds below 24 kph and 65 per centbelow ,32 kph. (Hamilton 1978, p.29). This implies thatimportant fuel savings could be achieved if it was possibleto significantly improve traffic flows in urban areas.While much has been done already, some scope !'emains formaking better use of the existing road infrastructure by,for instance, extending the cl earway principle to all majorarterial roads and for all hours of the day. However, majorimprovements in traffic flow may require expansion of theexisting road network and massive investments which areunlikely to be justified on economic or social grounds.

Improved car maintenance to ensur's that enginesare properly tuned can theoretically improve the fuelefficiency of vehicle operation, however the fuel costsavings for the motorist would rrpst likely be less thanthe cost of additional tune·-ups.. Some fuel economiesmight be achieved by encouraging drivers to improve theirdriving habits (reduce high speed driving, rapid acceler­ation and deceleration, and improve usage of gears).During fuel economy tests it has been demonstrated thatdifferences in average fuel economy of up to 20 per centresult f.l:om differences in driving behaviour (Aust.l:alianTransport Advisory Council 1978, p.134). However, there isno evidence of how willing or able motorists a.l:e to modifytheir driving behaviour, and it is unlikely that thepotential fuel savings from this source would be verysignificant. The most important social benefit of improved

480

SCHOU

driving habits, and reduced speeds in particular, would bea reduction in the number of fatal road accidents andserious injuries.

Increasing occupanf ratesIncreasing the eff~ciency of automobile use by

promoting higher occupancies (car-pooling) is a policymeasure which 'received considerable attention in the U,,8.during the 1973-74 oil embargo and price increases. Themerit of car-pooling for work commuting trips is that itcan be introduced with very short lead time and withoutsignificant capital expenditure. This makes it a prime opt­ion to include in a contingency plan for an emergencysituation. However, the practical difficulties involved inimplementing car-pooling on a large scale makes it unlikelythat any major energy savings could be achieved in a non.­emergency situation. The difficulties arise mainly from thefact t,hat car-pooling requires changes in people's travelpatterns and life styles, which may be inconsistent withindividual preferences.. The major disadvantages of car­pooling from the point of view of the individual concernrestriction of freedom, dependence on otheJ:: people andinconvenience of having to pick up and wait for others(N.S"W" Traffic Authority 1977).

Incentives which have been suggested to promotehigher occupancies for the wOJ::k trip include exclusivelanes, reduced toll~ pJ::eferential parking, lower parkingfees and automobile insuJ::ance subsidies. It has been arguedthat the benefits of car-pooling include reduced congestionand air pOllution as well as energy savings. However, itmust be noted that these benefits are unlikely to beextendable to non··work trips/I) and may indeed be offsetby increases in the number of non"·'work t,rips undertaken asa result of the greater availability of automobiles £0J::such trips. Thus the absolute fuel savings likely to resultfrom policy measures to increase automobile occupancy ratesare probably small.

The geneJ::al problem with measures designed toincrease the energy efficiency of automobile use throughopeJ::ational changes or increasing Occupancy rates is thatsuch measures, by their nature, require adjustments inpeople I s tI'avel patterns and habits. Such adjustments areunlikely to occuX' to any great extent as a result ofvoluntary measures, and non'-voluntary measures are unlikelyto be socially acceptable except for in emergency situations.

1 The o:rigins and destinations of non'-work trips are toodispersed in time and space to be candidates forcar-pooling.

481

TRANSPORT ENERGY ISSUES

Inducing Shifts to More Efficient Modes

There appears to be widesp.read adherence to the viewthat attracting automobile travellers to pUblic transportranks highly among policies to conserve scarce ene.rgyresources in transportatiol). As discussed elsewhere(Schou 1978; Peterson 1979(1) ) this argument tends to b",based on a narrow interp.retation of the issues involved.It tends to ignore the difficulties of meaningfullycomparing energy efficiencies of different modes and, inparticular, the issue of indirect energy requirements ofvarious modes is often ignored. In addition, impo.rtantissues of travel choice behaviour and indivi.dual p:re£e:r:­ences are generally disregarded. It must be pointed outthat it is meaningless to discuss the technical possibilit­ies for ene.rgy conservation without considering thecharacteZ:'istics of travel behaviour.

Empirical evidence on travel behaviou.r has indicatedbeyond doubt that people are unlikely to be attracted fromtheir cars to pUblic transport by increased petrol prices,decreased public transport fares or improved public tr'ans­port services. (Hartgen 1975, Skinner 1975, Peskin, Schoferand Stopher 1975, Stuntz and Hirst 1976, Ford Foundation 1975,Hensher and Bullock 1977). The value of time is an importantelement in a traveller's choice of mode. The value of timevaries with trip purpose but is usually high enough thatchanges in fuel costs or public transport fares have negli­gible effect on mode choice. People value the use of theprivate car highly, and are prepared to pay a premium for it.The car provides convenient, flexible and demand I'esponsivetransport services ~ FOJ:: most t:t'ip purposes, other thanDowntown commuter trips, public transpo:r.:t is inferior andtotal public transport patronage is unlikely to ever besignificantly greater than it is now (Hensher 1977b) •

When due consideration is given to available evid­ence on tIavel behaviour and p.references, the energy oon-­servation potential of public transport appears to be verylirni ted. Furthermore, it is becoming clear fIom a numbe:r::' ofrecent studies that the energy savings which could beachieved through more efficient automobiles by far exceedthe potential savings from the increased use of pUblictransport. However, public transport will always benecessaJ::y to pr'ovide :reasonable access to opportunitiesfo.l:' people who do not own ca:rs or cannot drive. Since 21per cent of Australian households do not own a car(Hamilton 1978) there is clearly a case on equity grounds

1 Paper to be presented at this Forum.

48Z

SCHOU

to provide some form of pUblic tt'ansport, though decisionson the form to be provided should take into account energyconsiderations" For instance buses are more energyefficient and capital efficient than rail, and are alsomore flexible in adapting to changing needs of the community.

Improving the :Inherent Efficiency of the Automobile

Improving the inherent efficiency of the automobile bypromoting shifts to smaller, more fuel efficient vehiclesand improving the technical efficiency of vehicles throughdesign and other changes will be the most important optionfor conserving transport energy in the 1980's. The mostimportant reasons for this are as follows:

The savings potential of improving vehicleefficiency is much larger than that of any other policymeasure, because motor vehicles now consume the majorshare of transportation energy and operate at efficienciesconsiderably below what existing technology could achieve.

. Gains in vehicle efficiency can be achievedwithout major impacts on the quality of transport servicesand may not require changes in the behaviour of eitherconsumers or institutions .- except for vehicle manufacturers,of course.

Implementing improvements in vehicle efficiencycan reduce total cost of automobile ownership and operation;to the extent that it does, it will be favoured by marketforces (Transportation Research Board 1977).

While lead times of up to 20 years may berequired to achieve maximum fuel savings from particulaxdesign improvements, substantial economies are aChievablewithin a few years. This is due to the fact that newervehicles account for a disproportionately large share ofvehicle kilometers travelled. In Australia some 50 percent of vehicle kilometers txavelled are by vehicles fOUl:years of age or less (Hamilton 1978, p.33),

The move towards smaller and/oJ: more efficientautomobiles is well under way in Australia, as evidencedby the increasing maxket share of four cyclinder cars atthe expense of V-S's. This is consistent with the findingsof overseas studies (Mogridge 1978, Sacco and Hajj 1976)·which have suggested that the major impact of petrol pricerises is a change in the stxucture of the car market withsmallez: vehicles gaining an increased share of the maz:ket.However, on present evidence it is not possible to deter···mine the extent to which t.his trend in Australia has beeninfluenced by petrol prices.

Recently the Australian motor industry announceda volunta,ry uniform code of pract,ice for passenger carfuel consumption reduction {Federal Chamber of AutomotiveIndustries 1978}. The code is based on a reduction inaverage fuel consumption of new passenger cars of 15per cent by 1983 and approximately 20 per cent by 1987when an average of 8.96 litres per 100 kilometers shouldbe achieved. This is comparable to the average fuel

483

TRANSPORT ENERGY ISSUES

efficiency of 8.6 litres per 100 kilometers which isrequired of new cars in the U.S. by 1985.

Policy measures to promote more efficient auto·­mobiles should include a combination of measures whichencQux'age the design and manufacture of fuel efficientvehicles and measures which encourage the purchase ofthese vehicles. Graduated t:egistration fees and salestaxes could be designed to discriminate against the largerand less fuel efficient vehicles, and import tariffscould be lowered selectively for fuel efficient vehicles.A system of fuel economy labelling could be introduced toincrease consumer awareness of comparative fuel consumptioncharacteristics and their implications for fuel andmotoring costs.

It should be pointed out that decisions announcedin the last Federal Budget (1978/'79) to cut sales taxes onlocally made cars and to raise tariffs on imported cars wouldtend to work in a direction opposite to that which would bedesirable from a fuel conservation point of view. This isso because many fuel efficient imported vehicles would bepenalised while, for instance, the locally produced V-B'swould be favoured. The move to world parity pricing ofdome$tic crude oil and the increase in petrol taxes al:eunlikely to be effective in encouraging the purchase offuel efficient vehicles as the demand for new motOl:vehicles is very insensitive to vehicle operating costs(Australian Transport Advisory Council 1978).

It may be concluded from this section that con­siderable potential exists for impr'oving the fuel efficiencyof the automobile by means of existing technology, withoutimpinging on travel patterns and life styles. To realisethis potential, government policies need to provide strongencouragement for the motor vehicle manufactures to producefuel efficient cars and provide incentives for people toown fuel efficient cars.

Introducing New Technology

Substitute fuelsBeyond conservation of petroleum fuels the

inevitable long term depletion of world oil reservesnecessitates substitution of alternative energy sources.The substitute fuels which have been investigated inthe engineering literature include LPG, LNG, methane,methanol, ethanol, hydrogen and liquified coal (Institutionof Engineers 1977). Most of these suffer major disadvantageswhich inhibit their rapid development and widespread use asa transport fuel. Large capital investments, long leadtimes and uncertainties about costs and profitabilityindicate that the private market system is unlikely tointroduce alternative fuels without substantial government

484

SCHQU

co,-operation, and a clearly defined government policy onrelated issues~ such as the taxation levels to apply topet.!'ol sUbstitutes. As oil prices continue to rise a numberof substitute fuels will become economically competitive.Increasing dependence on imported petroleum and insecurityof supplies, which is thought to be undesirable, may providejustification ,for subsidising the development and use ofpetroleum substitutes before these become economicallycompeti tive.

The electric vehicleIn considering alt,ernatives to the petl:'oleum dependl?nt

internal-combustion automobile, the electric vehicle is one­perennial favourite. The possibility of using coal or solarpower as the energy source makes the electric car an attractivElong term solution. Notabl~ advantages of electricallyoperated vehicles are the ab~enge o~ noise and pollution atthe vehicle location. (1) Th1s 1mp11es that the social andenvironment,al benefits would be great, particularly in urbanareas.

At present, the general application of electricvehicles is inhibited by limited range (80··100 km) anddeficiencies in performance (slow acceleration and maximumspeeds of about 80 km!hr). Present batteries add much tothe cost and weight of the car and it is unlikely that elec··tric vehicles will approach the performance characteristicsof internal-combustion vehicles in the immedi.ate future. Itshould be noted however, that the present characteristics ofelectric vehicles make them suitable for light urban deliveryvans and buses, as well as for many intra-urban car trips. Arecent study for the Bureau of Transport Economics (Graves1978) found that 11 per cent of cars could presently bereplaced by electric vehicles ,without significant changes inusage pattern" In order to be a reasonable candidat,e forreplacement a car should belong to a multi-car household,travel less than 40 km on a typical weekday and rarely travelmore than 80 km in a day.

In the near future the market potential of electricvehicles would be limited by t.he performa.nce characteristicsof present batteries. However, 10ng··1ife, high ener'gy-densitybatteries and fuel cells will probably be available beforethe end of the century (King 1977) and the market penetrationnecessary to significantly reduce the dependence of transporton petroleum fuels should then be achievable.. Market pene·­tration on a great scale would require electric vehicles tohave favourable purchase prices and r'unning costs comparedwith those of the internal combustion vehicle. However, asAustralia's oil reserves diminish and the costs of oil importsrise, the electric vehicle is likely to become economicallycompet,itive.

1 Pollution will generally increase at the electricitygenerating location.

485

TRANSPORT ENERGY ISSUES

The main conclusions to be derived from the previoussections are that the car has a considerable potential toadapt to the needs for energy conservation in transport andthat the car offers the most important option for conservingtransport energy without adversely affecting establishedtravel patterns and preferences.

Reducing Travel Demand

The final set of policy measures to be consideredhere relates to options for reducing the need to travel..It must be kept in mind that the demand for transport isla:rgely a derived demand. In most situations what is reallydemanded is access to activities and opportunities at theend destination, rather than transport or mobility pase.(Hensher 19'77b). Thus we need to look at the possibilitiesfor conserving energy (and time) by moving opportunities topeople, J:'ather than just moving people to opportunities.

Land use patterns and community designEnergy consumption can be reduced by designing or

redeveloping cities with accent on accessibility rather thanmobility (OWen 1976, Gilbert and Dajani 1974, Edwards andSchofer 1976). There is a need for long term urban (andregional) planning aimed at developing integrated communitiescombining residential, employment, services and recreationalactivities. Ther'e is consider'able scope for re-arrangingactivities in or'de:r to reduce trip making for a given levelof activity attainment (Hensher 1977b). Existing urban areascould gradually be re-designed so that travel needs arereduced and transport energy (and time) saved (Owen 1976) •

Advanced telecommunicationsA potent~ally powerful means of reducing travel

demand is through the substitution of advanced telecommuni­cations for some travel PUJ:"poses.. Modern communications maypermit people to have access from home to many services andactivities'which are now only obtainable by making a trip.Services which have been investigated in this context includeremote shopping, remote banking, electronic voting,(l)information retrieval systems, remote medical systems andelectronically transmitted mail and newspapers (Day 1973,Harkness 1973). The use of video-telephones, confravisionand tele-transmission of printed mater'ial could well reducethe need for t.ransacting business in central offices andcould become instrumental in reducing the volume ofcommuting. People might work at home and "telecommute" towork from closed circuit T.V. consoles. Technically, anumber' of new telecommunication media are already proven,but cornme.rcial usage awaits adequate threshold demand andconsequent reduction in relative costs.

1 Electronic voting could potentially contribute to arevival of democracy in so far as it would allowalmost instant registration of individual preferenceson a vast array of issues ..

486

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SCROU

COMPARISON OF CONSERVATION POLICY MEASURES

The evaluation matrix is thought to be a usefultechnique for allowing comparison and evaluation of a widerange of policy measures and fOl: presenting the relevantinformation to policy makers who bear the responsibility forthe final decision. It is recommended that impact eval­uation matrices be constructed for Australia to assistpolicy making in the area of transport energy conservat,ion.

A useful framework for comparing the policy measuressurveyed her:e could be provided by some form of conservationimpact evaluation matrix indicating all the relevant impactsof each policy measure. The matrix could incorporate quanti­tative measures where available, assign weigh~according tothe direction and importance of particular impacts, or justsimply describe the nature of relevant, effects. Twomatrices constI:ucted for the U"S" have been reproduced inpart in tables 1 and 2"

An important issue to be considered in the contextof telecommunication substitution for travel, is the extentto which various t,rip purposes could be effectively servedby telecommunications. Studies in this area (Christie 1974,Connell 1974, Day 1973) have been concerned mainly with theeffectiveness of telecommunications as a substitute forbusiness trips. It has been estimated (Christie 1974) thatabout 50 per cent of present face-ta-face business meetingscould be conducted by telecommunications without loss ofeffectiveness. The important issue is not only whethertelecommunications are adequate substitutes for travel but,:rather, whether their advantages outweigh their disadvantages(Harkness 1973). For example, teleconferencing may eliminatetravel time and expense, allow faster information turnaroundand decision making, mo~e short unscheduled meetings, mo~elocational freedom and last but not least require lessmaterial and ene~gy ~esources. While the substitution oftelecommunications for travel offe~s substantial potent,ialfor conserving transpo~t ene~gy, such substitution on alarge scale would involve considerable changes to lifestyles and interpersonal relations. There will alwaysbe situations in business and in people's private liveswhere the is no substitute for face-ta-face contact,.

TRANSPORT ENERGY ISSUES

TABLE 1SUMMARY OF OPPORIUNITIES TO CONSERVE TRANSPORTATION ENERGY

opn"" fUlL sAVllIGS FIlIL SAVI""! F\J£L SAV'IICS IHClt><tI<TAL COSYS (..) 01 SAVINGS (-) rE,us TO TUVt\. !>IIS---

~'m LIl&U·

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'''0<11.0

N/A" not av~i1able (or not ~pplicable).1 Total direct transportation energy projections were based on the growth rate projected for the '$llJbbl conservation else'

of the "Project Independence" report (8), which antic1pates implementation of some of the measures described in Ref. (l2lTransportation fuel consumption in bbT/day Is projected at 8.9 mill10n bbl/day In 1980 and 9.4 mill10n bbl/da)' in 199~consistent w1th the above and assuming 5 8 m111ion Btu/bbl \11th 95% of TOTE from liquid fuels in 1980 and 92% in 1990

3 See Ref. .l!.ll for scenario definitions.4. However, retrofitting entire fleet with fuel-economy meters alone would cost several billion dollars5. Assuning change is from 50% load factor to 70S load factor6. lJill require changes to air trllfflc control procedures and equipment.1 Preliminary FM study indicates that the value of the fuel savin9s would ddray cap1ta1 and operating costs of tow vehicles

488

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490

TRANSPORT ENERGY ISSUES

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Acknowledgements:

The encouragement of David Hensher (MacquarieUniversity) is gratefully acknowledged. Chris Hall(Kuring-gai C"A"E .. ) is thanked for reading the draft andproviding helpful comments ..

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