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Transitioning to climate resilient development: Perspectives from
communities in Peru and EcuadorFrank Sperling, Environmental Specialist, AFTS4 (Climate Change Team,
ENV), The World BankWith contributions from: Corinne Valdivia, University of Missouri Columbia, MURoberto Quiroz, Division of Natural Resource Management, The International
Potato Center, CIP
Climate Risk Management• In light of climate change, it is increasingly being
recognized that development processes need to address current and future climate risks if they are to be sustainable
• Communities, characterized by high levels of poverty, limited social, economic and human capital, require an emphasis on the near term-vulnerabilities
• The challenges lie in connecting community level capacity building needs with the right institutional framework, which addresses these near term issues, while also avoiding incentives for adaptation measures which are mal-adaptive in the long-run
TFESSD Project: Adaptation Strategies to the Environmental and Socioeconomic Impacts of El Niño
for Rural Communities in Ecuador and Peru
• Objective: Identify the conditions necessary for improving the adaptive capacity of rural communities in Ecuador and Peru to impacts associated with El Nino events and general climate variability
TTL: Climate Change Team (ENV)Partners:SUM, CICEROPeru: CIP with CIRNMA & ITDGEcuador: ESPOLWorld Bank: add. input from HMU, LAC country offices
Specific Goals
• To better understand the perceptions of communities of their exposure to environmental risks and hazards
• To identify the use and dissemination of information to prepare for climatic risks
• To learn about current coping strategies employed by communities to climatic impacts
• To explore constraining factors and possible opportunities for better addressing climate risks
Peru & Ecuador – Under the spell of ENSO
• The El Niño Southern Oscillation exerts a dominating influence on the climate of much of Peru and Ecuador.
• The recurrent nature of climatic changes associated with El Niño and La Niña events reveal insights into the coping capacity of communities and needs for institutional support
Coastal Ecuador and N-Peru• The climate is
fluctuating between the two modes of ENSO.
• El Niño events are associated with excessive moisture, rainfall and flooding events.
• La Niña events are associated with drier than normal or drought conditions.
Source: Source: RosselRossel/ CAF/ CAF
Monthly Precipitation Averages for Guayaquil for hydrologogical years 1962-2000 and during the evolution of selected El Nino
events (1982/83, 1986/97 and 1997/98)
0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.0
1000.01100.01200.0
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Ja
nFe
bM
arA
prM
ay Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Ja
nFe
bM
ay Apr
May Ju
nJu
lA
ug
Sep
tO
ct
Nov
Dec Ja
nFe
bM
arA
prM
ay Jun
Month
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
Monthly Avg.1982-83-841986-87-881997-98-99
Guayaquil, coastal Ecuador
Esparanza, Bajo Piura
Esperanza: Monthly Precpitation for January, February and March, 1960-2000
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Prec
pita
tion
(mm
)
JanFebMar
Wet and dry conditions in the Altiplano
Dry (often associated with El Nino conditions)
Moist-cool
Subsidence
dry-warm Moist-warm
Wet
90 W 90 W70 W 50 W 70 W 50 W
Adapted from Adapted from GarreaudGarreaud et al. 2003et al. 2003
Example Peru: A multi-hazard environment impacting on development processes
• Focus: PiuraStrong ENSO signal influencesthe regional climate (Nino 1.2 )El Nino: excessive rainfall, floodsNormal/La Nina years: dry or drought
conditions (Coastal Ecuador similar)
• Focus: PunoAltiplano, multi-hazardENSO signal less clear, but El Ninotends to promote droughtconditions. Other hazards include floods, hail,cold spells and snow. Compoundingeffects of multiple hazards
Economic Impacts – Examples1997-98 El Niño:
• Estimated loss of 7.5 billion USD in the Andean countries (ECLAC 2000)
• Loss in Peru: about 4.5 % of GDP (CAF 2001); Impacted sectors: Agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, transportation, energy
To consider in this context:
• 54.8% of Peru’s people live in poverty• 24.4% in extreme poverty (World Bank 2005)• Poverty is particularly a major challenge in the rural areas of Peru
As many assets are non-monetary, some of the impacts of El Nino are masked in the above assessments, while constituting a real challenge to the livelihoods of the poor and their chanceto escape from poverty.
Institutional Preparedness
There is an increasing national level emphasis on preventive and adaptive measures related to El Nino, climate variability and change.
At the regional level the Centro International de Investigación sobre el Fenómeno del El Niño (CIIFEN)has the task to improve the regional coordination and dissemination of forecasts concerning El Niño.
Approach• Workshop to agree on application of participatory methods
• Communities were selected in areas under the influence of El Niño and other climate related hazards
• Community assessments carried out in 5 coastal and rural communities in Ecuador, and 4 rural communities in Piura, Northern Peru and 6 rural communities of the Altiplano region of SouthernPeru.
• Participatory approaches are aimed at identifying the i) perceptions of disaster risk and changing climatic conditions, ii) use of official climate information, iii) local and traditional knowledge in preparing for El Niño events, iv) current coping and adaptation strategies, and those required to build adaptation.
• Multi-stakeholders workshops
Piura Piura –– ParticipatoryParticipatory Rural Rural AssessmentAssessment
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TAMBO GRANDE FRIAS
PIURACASTILLA
CATACAOS
CURA MORILA ARENA
LA UNION EL TALLAN
VICE BELLAVISTA DE LA UNION
RINCONADA DE LLICUAR BERNAL
CRISTO NO S VALGA
SECHURA
CHULUCANAS
LA MATANZA
SANTO DOMINGO
CHALACO
SANTA CATALINA DE MOSSA
YAMANGOMORROPONLALAQ UIZ
BUENOS AIRES
SAN JUAN DE BIGOTESALITRAL
CANCHAQUE
SAN MIGUEL DE EL FAIQ UE
HUARMACA
ZONA MARINO COSTERA DE L A B AH IA D
E SECH
URA
OCEANO PA CIFICO
SUBCUENCA SAN FRANCISCO
SUBCUENCA YAPATERA
VALLE BAJO PIURA
ZONA MARINO COSTERABAHIA DE SECHURA
500000
500000
520000
520000
540000
540000
560000
560000
580000
580000
600000
600000
620000
620000
640000
640000 660000 680000
93400009360000
PROG RAMA DE FO RTALECIMIENTO DE CAPACIDADES NACIONALES PARAMANEJAR EL IMPACTO DEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO Y
CONTAMINACION DEL AIRE - PROCLIM
IN TER MEDIATE TEC HNO LOGY D EVELOPMEN T GROUPPROGR AMA DE PR EVENC IO N D E D ESASTRESY GOBER NAB ILIDAD LOCAL
IN G. LU IS POZO AN CH ANTE
PATRO NES DE RIESG OS DE DESASTRE ASOCIADOS CON LOS EFECTOS LOCALESDEL CAMBIO CLIMATICO GLOBAL EN LA REGION PIURA:PROCESOS SOCIALES, VULNERABILIDAD Y ADAPTACION
ZONA 17PROYECCION UTMWG S 84
ESCALA GRAF ICAFECHA: JUNIO 2004
11AREAS DE INTERES DE LA CUENCA DEL RIO PIURA
660000 680000
9340
000
9360
000
9380
000 9380000
9400
000 9400000
9420
000 9420000
9440
000 9440000
9460
000 9460000
9480
000 9480000
N
EW
S
Central SierraCentral Sierra
DryDry ForestForest
Bajo Piura: Bajo Piura: IrrigationIrrigationandand CropsCrops
Caleta Pescadores: Caleta Pescadores: ParachiqueParachique
º
Communities represent the diversity of environmental, populationand productive agroecosystems.
University of Missouri Columbia MUUniversity of Missouri Columbia MU
FisheriesFisheries TownTown ITDGITDG
Lake, CropLivestockDairy Cattle
Mainly CropsSome Livestock
LivestockCrop
Crop Livestock
Lake, Crops and Informal Trade
SouthernSouthern PeruPeru –– ParticipatoryParticipatory Rural Rural AssessmentAssessmentCommunities represent ethnicities, agroecosystem and productive
diversity of Peru’s Altiplano
University of Missouri Columbia MUUniversity of Missouri Columbia MU
ParticipatoryParticipatory WorkshopWorkshop MethodsMethods
Time Line Development
Large Groups
Participatory MappingCommunity ParticipatoryAssessments
Focus Groups
Climate Events: Impacts in the North
– Floods during El Niño – Floods also during non
Niño heavy rains– Dry and Cold spells of
consecutive years (two, three, or four years)
– Forest fires following Niño years
– Disease outbreaks during Niño Years
– Concerns vary according to location, production activities, technological alternatives
Southern Highlands Rural Communities Southern Highlands Rural Communities
Multiple ShockEventsMultiple ShockEvents
DroughtsFrostsFloodsHailSnow
DroughtsFrostsFloodsHailSnow
Multiple Successive Multiple Successive
YearsYears
FINDINGSFINDINGS
Climate Events: Impacts in the South
– Spatial variability in the presentation of droughts, floods, frosts, and hail events
– Droughts during Niño years– Floods during wet years
from the Lake – Upper respiratory diseases
during cold spells– Concerns vary according to
location, production activities, technological alternatives: loss of animals, loss of crops, raw materials
Perceptions of ChangeExample: Altiplano
Farmers suggest there is change in the timing of the rainy season.
In general, communities in Ecuador, N-Peru and S-Peru have the impression that the environmental conditions around them are changing.
Climatological Averages of Precipitation totals for January, February, March and April in Puno
020406080
100120140160180200
Jan Feb Mar AprMonth
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
1901-1930:1941-1970:1961-1990:1971-2000:1973-2002:
Local environmental knowledge Physical and biological indicators are used to predict:
• Climate (i.e. for planting season)Examples: Brightness of Pleiades abundance of rain (altiplano), Hot Nov & Dec
rainy Feb & March; whirlwinds from N to S instead from S to N rain (coast), location of bird’s nests dry or wet
• Weather (short-term), e.g. extremely dark clouds hail;
While communities display a general awareness of a variety of indicators, explicit knowledge and concrete responses appear limited to few individuals.
However, in the coast, El Nino radio forecasts tend to be compared with environmental conditions usually indicative of the local manifestations of evolving El Nino conditions. If these observations do not align,communities usually do not to trust the radio forecasts (related problem: different understanding / definitions of El Nino)
Coping StrategiesIn the Northern Coast• Selling of livestock• Over-harvesting in dry
forest - deforestation• Collective strategies
during floods• Individual strategies
during droughts• Migration of adult males
and youth to the jungle and the coast
Southern Altiplano• Selling of livestock• Selling of wool and
handcrafts• Stinting on food in the
family• Informal trade• Migration of male adults
and youth • Non market institutions:
access land, seed, labor (social reciprocity relations)
Local/traditional adaptations
• Coastal Ecuador: AlbarradasU-shaped detention ponds build on semi-permeable soil. Turns excessive moisture during El Nino years into advantage by recharging aquifer for dry years.
• Altiplano: Waru warus, q’ochas
Role of Climate Information
Information About El Niño• Awareness and trust in the North• Radio is a trusted source• Official forecasting sources “not
trusted” despite the fact they are the source of the forecasts
• Scale is a constraint in the forecasts for the Altiplano region
• El Niño forecasts listened to in radio in the Altiplano are perceived as “belonging” to the coast
• While there is a connection between El Niño and drought occurrence in the Altiplano, this connection is not realized by the communities because of high variability due to other factors
Local Knowledge Indicators• Local scale biological and physical
indicators in the North and the Altiplano
• Developed an inventory of indicators developed for the south and north
• There are perceptions that climate is changing, difficulties “reading”the indicators
• Local knowledge exists for agriculture and fisheries
• Loss of knowledge among the youth
• Use knowledge differs among the North and the Altiplano
Barriers to AdaptationIn All Communities• Limited understanding and
access to local and regional governance structures
• Progressive loss of assets leading to poverty trap
• Lack of access to credit• Lack of insurance mechanisms• Lack of technological
alternatives• Lack of trust on information of
forecasts• Erosion of social structures
due to migration (local knowledge)
In the Altiplano• Multiple and consecutive
shock events- uncertainty• Lack of knowledge,
understanding, of the hail, frost, and flood events: occurrence and presentation
In the North Coast• Isolation during periods of
drought• Flood relocation conflicts• Long periods of stress during
dry years
Selected Recommendations
• Local Level – Small scale enterprise: building materials and construction of
shelters for livestock– Awareness raising on hazards, and strengthening of local
level organizations and knowledge networks– Local market development, articulation to government social
programs: Milk and children food programs
• Education– Integration of climate risk management in school curricula– Promoting community knowledge, capacities for diversification
opportunities– Skills development for youth in response to push migration
Selected Recommendations-II• Institutional
– Information about employment opportunities to support migration– Connecting existing local and regional institutions to rural communities to
strengthen disaster preparedness, and market opportunities aimed at building asset accumulation, and resilience
– Climate information should be continuous and more event focused building extension systems to promote trust
– Access to credit – Improving access to data for validation
• Research– Validation of biological and physical indicators, and impact of environmental
change on reliability – Merging local and official climate forecasts; Identification of entry points
for dissemination of information– Research on traditional water management systems (i.e. waru waru, albarradas)
and their transferability to other localities– Post-harvest storage for crops– Credit and insurance mechanisms
Linking with institutional efforts• Liaise with on-going efforts, promoting
integrated approaches• Training on climate information needs to engage
institutions in a dialogue process with communities to identify appropriate dissemination formats
• Training efforts should aim to take a comprehensive view to identify effective risk mitigation optionsFeed-back process will provide guidance to
institutions on how to structure information and design practical measures.
Training … addressing information demand for:• natural resource management & agricultural practices
best suited for the climate characteristics of the region (suitable crops, planting techniques, pest management
• markets for local produce• institutional support mechanisms
Note: The training provided needs to be considered as one of the information components utilized by the communities in the communal and individual decision-making processes
Strengthening existing knowledge networks by:
• Providing climate information which is continuous and not solely focused on El Nino years
• Promoting the fusion of local knowledge and scientific climate information in support of communal decision making processes for the planting season
• Increasing the capacity of the government to provide climate risk management measures adapted to local contexts
• Responding to the technology and market training needs identified in the joint process.
Acknowledgements• The presentation is part of a TFESSD supported study Adaptation
Strategies to the Environmental and Socioeconomic Impacts of El Niño for Rural Communities of Ecuador and Peru.
• We are very grateful to the communities that willingly participated in the assessment sharing their knowledge and concerns. Without them this project would not have been possible.
• We acknowledge the contributions of CIRNMA and ITDG in Peru. Especial thanks to Lenkiza Angulo, Roberto Valdivia, and their supporting staff, as well as Jorge Marcos and Pilar Cornejo of ESPOL for conducting the assessments in Ecuador.
• We are also grateful for the input of Liliana Sanchez, Víctor Mares, Jorge de La Cruz, Hugo Li Pun, Martha Huanes and Oscar Hidalgo from CIP.
• The input of Jemima Garcia-Godos, Desmond McNeill (SUM) and Karen O’Brien and Lars Otto Naess (CICERO) on institutional analysis and perspectives on seasonal forecast is gratefully recognized
• Frank Sperling would like to thank Ian Noble (World Bank) for his leadership and advice. The support of Renan Poveda (Peru) and Garbriela Arcos (Ecudador) is greatly appreciated.