Transition Primer US v2.0

8/3/2019 Transition Primer US v2.0

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Transition Primera guide to becoming a Transition Town

US Version


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Page B Transition Primer

Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported (CC BY-SA 3.0)

A majority of the content of this primer is sourced from the Transition Network

and is used here in gratitude and with permission in case anyone asks.

US Version (2.0)

Last Updated: 09/28/2011

Cover image: Permaculture bike tour, Transition San Francisco


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Page iiwww.transitionus.org

Contents

Something remarkable is happening ... 1

The Transition Movement

How is Transition Diferent From Other Sustainability Groups? 4

Why Transition? 6

The Guiding Principles o Transition 8

The 12 Ingredients

Barriers to Transition - The 7 Buts 14

Becoming a Transition Initiative 16

Training For Transition

About Transition US 20

Cheerul Disclaimer! 22

Appendix A: Community Resilience Indicators 24

Appendix B: A Closer Look At Peak Oil 26

Appendix C: Introduction to Exponential Growth 28


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Page iv Transition Primer


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Page 1www.transitionus.org

All cross the country and around the world citizens in every locale are banding together to reinvent their

communities. They are boldly looking at climate change, resource depletion and the economic crises andpurposeully unleashing the collective genius o their communities to address these issues.

They are not waiting or government and they are not acting alone. Instead they are building connections

in their community; they are reaching out to others and spurring each other into actions that are bold, poi-

gnant and exhilarating. Together they are creating a momentum, a groundswell, an empowered and active

community movement. These groups are building their uture by vision, by design and by intention.

Ocial Transition Initiatives (TIs) range in size rom the in the TI in the Los Angeles basin with a population

o 13 million to the TI in Micanopy, Florida that boasts a population o 653.

Along the way we have seen ordinary people become extraordinary, stepping out, working with others

to create positive change. In Houston a Transition instigator led his community into action through Perm-

ablitzes (creating gardens where there were lawns) one neighborhood at a time. In Transition Ann Arbor

local leaders convened their ourth "Re-skilling" estival where those who had skills to share taught those

who wanted to learn. In Transition Pittsburgh youth leaders instituted the ever widening Git Circle (A Git

Circle is a way o building personal connections and ostering the ow o goods and services within a com-

munity). And in Transition Sebastopol an avid gardener galvanized others to start the rst community seed

saving garden on the grounds o the Episcopal Church.

Examples o the impacts resulting rom TIs springing up across the country include the brilliant seed library

started by Transition Richmond, CA that was subsequently adopted by the San Francisco Public Library.

The process: would-be gardeners check out seeds (with planting tips) in the spring, returning seeds ater

harvest or next year's bounty. The Transition Folkschool developed in Sandpoint, Idaho was adapted byTransition Whatcom in Washington State. Based on the Re-skilling theme the Folkschool will reach more

people, ofer more classes and create more opportunities or community members to build relationships.

We invite broad participation in all we do, in act we know that the times require this. We are at a point in

history where the uture is calling out or all o us to step up, to be extraordinary. At this time too, we are

given the very real task o having to work together. We hope you will join us as we join you.

Carolyne Stayton

Executive DirectorTransition US

Something remarkable is happening ...


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Page 2 Transition Primer

The Transition Movement is comprised o vibrant, grassroots

community initiatives that seek to build community resilience

in the ace o such challenges as increasing energy costs, sever

environmental degradation and economic instability. Transition

Initiatives diferentiate themselves rom sustainability and

environmental groups by seeking to mitigate these converging

global crises by engaging their communities in home-grown,citizen-led education, action, and multi-stakeholder planning to

increase local sel reliance and resilience.

Transition initiatives succeed by regeneratively

using their local assets, innovating, networking,

collaborating, replicating proven strategies, and

respecting the deep patterns o nature and diverse

cultures in their place. Transition Initiatives work

with deliberation and good cheer to create a ulll-

ing and inspiring local way o lie that can with-

stand the shocks o rapidly shiting global systems.

It all starts of when a small collection o motivatedindividuals within a community come together

with a shared concern: How can our community

respond to the challenges and opportunities o our

time? This small team o people begin by orming

an initiating group and then adopt the Transition

Model with the intention o engaging a signicant

proportion o the people in their community to

kick of a Transition Initiative.

They start working together to address this BIG

question:

For all those aspects of life that our community needs

in order to sustain itself and thrive, how do we signi-

cantly increase resilience, drastically reduce carbon

emissions and greatly strengthen our local economy?

To begin with, it is important to note that although

the term Transition Town has stuck, what we

are talking about are Transition Cities, Transition

Islands, Transition Valleys, Transition Anywhere-

You-Find-People.

The Transition Movement


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During the process the community recognizes

these two crucial points:

That we used immense amounts o creativity,

ingenuity and adaptability on the way up the

energy upslope, and theres no reason or us

not to do the same on the downslope.

I we collectively plan and act early enough, wecan create a way o living thats signicantly

more connected, more vibrant and more ulll-

ing than the one we nd ourselves in today.

Transition Initiatives make no claim to have all the

answers, but by building on the wisdom o the

past and unlocking the creative genius, skills and

determination in our communities, the solutions

can emerge.

Now is the time or us to take stock and to start

re-creating our uture in ways that are not based

on cheap, plentiul and polluting oil but on local-

ized ood, renewable energy sources, resilient local

economies and an enlivened sense o community

well-being.

Local Transition Initiatives provide a process or

relocalizing the essential elements that a commu-

nity needs to sustain itsel and thrive. Hundreds

o communities in the US are joining thousands

around the world that are setting of on their relo-

calization journeys using the Transition model.

Source: www.transitionnetwork.org


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Transition initiatives share many o the same goals as other

groups, and works collaboratively with a variety o organizations

in their local areas. Transition difers in that it ocuses specically

on preparing communities or the changes associated with

unprecedented resource depletion and transitioning away rom

ossil-uel dependency.

The Transiton model involves engaging directly

with the public to raise awareness about the is-

sues and encourage citizens to create a vision o a

better uture. Transition initiatives act as a cata-

lyst - inspiring others to create their own answers

and vision - without necessarily trying to provide

all the answers. The aim is to bring inormation

and resources together in one place about groups

and organizations already working toward mak-

ing communities more sustainable and resilient,leverage resources where possible, and coordinate

i needed. It is not the intention o Initiatives to

launch any projects that duplicate work already be-

ing done by others. Rather they help connect the

public with existing resources, and also help nd

gaps where critical needs are not being met - and

then help ll those gaps.

Another important aspect o Transition that difer-

entiates it rom other eforts is in its ultimate goal

o creating an Energy Decent Action Plan (EDAP).

An EDAP sets out a vision o a powered-down,resilient, relocalized uture, and then backcasts, in

a series o practical steps, creating a map to get

there rom here. Every communitys EDAP will be

diferent, both in content and style.

Lastly, the inner-transition (aka Heart & Soul) com-

ponent is a key part o the Transition model. some-

times reerred to as the psychology o change,

although it is more than just that. An important

aspect o the process is to provide or psychologi-

cal and emotional support or community mem-

bers as they come to terms with changes that can

oten be overwhelming. Supporting each other

through these changes is a vital part o community

resilience. Including an inner-transition aspect iskey to making the Transition model stand out.

How is Transition Diferent From

Other Sustainability Groups?

* Thanks to Transition Oklahoma and Transition Sebstopol for the above text.

When our supermarkets have only

enough food for two days time,

sustainability seems to focus on the

eciency of the freezers.

- Rob Hopkins, 2009 TED Talk


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Traditional Environmentalism

Individual behavior ...........................................................

Single issue ..........................................................................

Tools: lobbying, campaigning, protesting ................

Sustainable development ..............................................Fear, guilt, and shock as motivation ...........................

The man in the street is the problem .........................

Blanket campaigning .......................................................

Prescriptive - advocates answers and responses ......

Carbon oot printing .........................................................

Belie that economic growth is possible ...................

Transition Approach

Group Behavior

Holistic

Tools: Public participation, psychology, culture

Resilience/relocalizationHope, optimism and proactivity as motivation

The man in the street is the solution

Targeted interventions

Acts as a catalyst - no xed answers

Carbon oot printing PLUS resilience

Designing or local economic resilience

Sustainability is inherently static. It presumes theres a point at which

we can maintain ourselves and the world, and once we nd the right

combination o behavior and technology that allows us some measure

o stability, we have to stay there. A sustainable world can avoid

imminent disaster, but it will remain on the precipice until the next

shock.

Resilience, conversely, accepts that change is inevitable and in many

cases out o our hands, ocusing instead on the need to be able to

withstand the unexpected. Greed, accident, or malice may have harmul

results, but, barring something truly apocalyptic, a resilient system can

absorb such results without its overall health being threatened.

-- Jamais Cascio


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We are living in an age o unprecedented change, with a

number o crises converging. Sever weather disruptions, global

economic instability, declining biodiversity, resource wars, have

all stemmed rom the availability o cheap, non-renewable

ossil uels. Global oil, gas and coal production is predicted

to irreversibly decline in the next 10 to 20 years, and severe

climate changes are already taking efect around the world.The coming shocks are likely to be catastrophic i we do not

prepare.

As Richard Heinberg states: Our central survival

task or the decades ahead, as individuals and as

a species, must be to make a transition away rom

the use o ossil uels and to do this as peaceully,

equitably, and intelligently as possible.

The Transition movement represents one o the

most promising ways o engaging people and

communities to take the ar-reaching actions that

are required to mitigate these oreseen shocks.Furthermore, these relocalization eforts are de-

signed to result in a lie that is more ullling, more

socially connected and more equitable than the

one we have today.

The Transition model is based on a loose set o

real world principles and practices that have been

built up over time through experimentation and

observation o communities as they drive orward

to reduce carbon emissions and build community

resilience.

Underpinning the model is a recognition o the

ollowing:

The challenges o our time require urgentaction

Adaptation to a world with less access to

cheap ossil uels is inevitable

It is better to plan and be prepared, than betaken by surprise

Industrial society has lost the resilience to beable to cope with shocks to its systems

We have to act together and we have to actnow

We must negotiate our way through thesechallenges using all our skill, ingenuity andintelligence

Using our creativity and cooperation tounleash the collective genius within our localcommunities will lead to a more abundant,

connected and healthier uture or all.

The Transition Movement believes that is up to us

in our local communities to step into a leadership

position on this situation. Together we can make a

diference.

Why Transition?


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The danger posed by war to all ohumanity - and to our planet - is at

least matched by the climate crisis

and global warming. I believe that

the world has reached a critical

stage in its eforts to exercise

responsible environmental

stewardship.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon

Id put my money on the sun

and solar energy. What a source

o power! I hope we dont have

to wait until oil and coal run out

beore we tackle that.

Thomas Edison, 1931

It is well enough that people o

the nation do not understand our

banking and monetary system, or

i they did, I believe there wouldbe a revolution beore tomorrow

morning.

Henry Ford


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Principles matter because the people we deal with on a day

to day basis can hold us accountable to them. They matter

because theyre how we look at problems, devise responses

and interact with people. They matter because the eld that

were operating in can knock us sideways, and its really useul

to have something solid to grab hold o.

These are the principles that Transition US aspires to as an

organization, and we hope to model them in such as way that

other transitioners adopt them as well.

ways which are playul, articulate, accessible

and engaging, and which enable people to

eel enthused and empowered rather than

powerless.

Transition Initiatives ocus on telling people

the closest version o the truth that we know in

times when the inormation available is deeply

contradictory.

The messages are non-directive, respecting

each persons ability to make a response that isappropriate to their situation.

3. Inclusion and Openness

Successul Transition Initiatives need an

unprecedented coming together o the broad

diversity o society. They dedicate themselves

to ensuring that their decision making

processes and their working groups embody

principles o openness and inclusion.

This principle also reers to the principleo each initiative reaching the community

in its entirety, and endeavouring, rom an

early stage, to engage their local business

community, the diversity o community groups

and local authorities.

The Guiding Principles o Transition

1. Positive Visioning

We can only create what we can rst vision

I we cant imagine a positive uture we wont

be able to create it.

A positive message helps people engage with

the challenges o these times.

Change is happening our choice is between a

uture we want and one which happens to us.

Transition Initiatives are based on a dedicationto the creation o tangible, clearly expressed

and practical visions o the community in

question beyond its present-day dependence

on ossil uels.

Our primary ocus is not campaigning against

things, but rather on positive, empowering

possibilities and opportunities.

The generation o new stories and a new

narrative are central to this visioning work.

2. Help People Access Good Inormation andTrust Them to Make Good Decisions

Transition Initiatives dedicate themselves,

through all aspects o their work, to raising

awareness o peak oil and climate change and

related issues such as critiquing economic

growth. In doing so they recognise the

responsibility to present this inormation in


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It makes explicit the principle that there is, in

the challenge o energy descent, no room or

them and us thinking.

We need good listeners, gardeners, people

who like to make and x everything, good

parties, discussions, energy engineers,

inspiring art and music, builders, planners,

project managers.

Bring your passion and make that yourcontribution i there isnt a project working in

the area you are passionate about, create one!!

4. Enable Sharing and Networking

Transition Initiatives dedicate themselves to

sharing their successes, ailures, insights and

connections at the various scales across the

Transition network, so as to more widely build

up a collective body o experience.

5. Build Resilience

This stresses the undamental importance o

building resilience, that is, the capacity o our

businesses, communities and settlements to

deal as well as possible with shock.

Transition initiatives commit to building

resilience across a wide range o areas (ood,

economics, energy etc) and to setting them

within an overall context o the need to do

all we can to ensure general environmental

resilience. Most communities in the past had a

generation or two ago the basic skills needed

or lie such as growing and preserving ood,

making clothes, and building with local

materials.

6. Inner and Outer Transition

The challenges we ace are not just caused by

a mistake in our technologies but as a direct

result o our world view and belie system. The impact o the inormation about the state

o our planet can generate ear and grie -

which may underlie the state o denial that

many people are caught in.

Psychological models can help us understand

what is really happening and avoid

unconscious processes sabotaging change,

e.g. addictions models, models or behavioral

change.

This principle also honors the act that

Transition thrives because it enables and

supports people to do what they are

passionate about, what they eel called to do.

7. Transition makes sense - the solution is the

same size as the problem

Many lms or books who suggest that

changing light bulbs, recycling and driving

smaller cars may be enough. This causes a state

called Cognitive Dissonance a trance where

you have been given an answer, but know that

it is not going to solve the problem youve just

been given.

We look at the whole system not just one issue

because we are acing a systems ailure not a

single problem ailure.

We work with complexity, mimicking nature in

solutions based problem solving.

8. Subsidiarity: sel-organization and decision

making at the appropriate level

This nal principle enshrines the idea that

the intention o the Transition model is not

to centralise or control decision making, butrather to work with everyone so that it is

practiced at the most appropriate, practical

and empowering level, and in such a way that

it models the ability o natural systems to sel

organise.

We create ways o

working that are easy

to copy and spread

quickly.


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These 12 Ingredients (aka Steps) have grown out o the

observation o what seemed to work in the early Transition

Initiatives. They dont take you rom A to Z but rather rom A

to C, which is as ar as weve got with the model today. These

Steps dont necessarily ollow each other logically in the order

they are set out here; every Transition Initiative weaves through

them diferently.

1. Set up a steering group and design its demise

rom the outset. This stage puts a core team

in place to drive the project orward during the

initial phases. We recommend that you orm your

Steering Group with the aim o getting through

Steps 2 5, and agree that once a minimum o 4

sub-groups (see Step 5) are ormed, the Steering

Group disbands and reorms with a person rom

each o those groups. This requires a degree o

humility, but is very important to put the successo the project above the individuals involved.

Ultimately your Steering Group should be made up

o 1 representative rom each working sub-group.

2. Raise Awareness. This stage will identiy your

key allies, build crucial networks and prepare

the community in general or the launch o

your Transition initiative. For an efective Energy

Descent Action plan to evolve, its participants have

to understand the potential efects o both peak

oil and climate change the ormer demanding a

drive to increase community resilience, the latter areduction in carbon ootprint.

Screenings o key movies (Inconvenient Truth,

End o Suburbia, Crude Awakening, Power o

Community) along with panels o experts to

answer questions at the end o each, are very

efective. Talks by experts in their eld o climate

change, peak oil and community solutions can

also be very inspiring. Articles in local papers,

interviews on local radio, presentations to existing

groups, including schools, are also part o the

toolkit to get people aware o the issues, and ready

to start thinking o solutions.

3. Lay the oundations.This stage is about

networking with existing groups and individuals,

making clear to them that the Transition Initiative

is designed to incorporate their previous efortsand uture inputs by looking at the uture in a new

way. Acknowledge and honor the work they do,

and stress that they have a vital role to play. Give

them a concise and accessible overview o Peak Oil,

what it means, how it relates to Climate Change,

how it might afect the community in question,

and the key challenges it presents. Set out your

thinking about how a Transition Initiative might be

able to act as a catalyst or getting the community

to explore solutions and to begin thinking about

grassroots mitigation strategies.

The 12 Ingredients


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4. Organize a Great Unleashing.This stage

creates a memorable milestone to mark the

projects coming o age, moves it right into the

community at large, builds a momentum to propel

your initiative orward or the next period o its

work and celebrates your communitys desire to

take action. In terms o timing, we suggest this

take place about 6 months to a year ater your rst

awareness-raising event.

The Ocial Unleashing o Transition Town Totnes

was held in September 2006, preceded by about

10 months o talks, lm screenings and events.

Your unleashing will need to bring people up to

speed on the challenges ahead but in a spirit o

we can do something about this rather than a

doom and gloom scenario. One item o content

that weve seen work very well is a presentation on

the practical and psychological barriers to personal

change ater all, this is all about what we do asindividuals. It neednt be just talks, it could include

music, ood, dance - whatever you eel reects your

communitys intention to embark on this collective

adventure.

5. Form working groups. Part o the process

o developing an Energy Descent Action Plan

is tapping into the collective genius o the

community. Crucial or this is to set up a number o

smaller groups to ocus on specic aspects o the

process. Each o these groups will develop their

own ways o working and their own activities, but

will all all under the umbrella o the project as a

whole.

Ideally, working groups are needed or all aspects

o lie that your community needs to sustain

itsel and thrive. Examples o these are: ood,

waste, energy, education, youth, local economics,

transport, water, local government.

Each o your working groups looks at their area

and tries to determine the best ways o buildingcommunity resilience and reducing their carbon

ootprint. Their solutions will orm the backbone o

the Energy Descent Action Plan.

6. Use Open Space. Weve ound Open Space

Technology to be a highly efective approach

to running meetings or Transition Initiatives.

In theory it ought not to work. A large group o

people comes together to explore a particular

topic or issue, with no agenda, no timetable,

no obvious coordinator and no minute takers.

However, by the end o each meeting, everyone

has said what they needed to, extensive notes

have been taken, lots o networking has had taken

place, and a huge number o ideas have been

identied, and visions set out.

The essential reading on Open Space is Harrison

Owens Open Space Technology: A Users Guide,

and you will also nd Peggy Holman and Tom

Devanes The Change Handbook: Group Methods

or Shaping the Future an invaluable reerence on

the wider range o such tools.

7. Develop visible practical maniestations

o the project. It is essential that you avoid any

sense that your project is just a talking shop where

people sit around and draw up wish lists. Your

project needs, rom an early stage, to begin to

create practical, high visibility maniestations inyour community. These will signicantly enhance

peoples perceptions o the project and also their

willingness to participate. Theres a dicult balance

to achieve here during these early stages. You

need to demonstrate visible progress, without

embarking on projects that will ultimately have no

place on the Energy Descent Action Plan.

8. Facilitate the Great Reskilling. I we are to

respond to Peak Oil and Climate Change by

moving to a lower energy uture and relocalizing

our communities, then well need many o the skills

that our grandparents took or granted. One o the

most useul things a Transition Initiative can do is

to reverse the great deskilling o the last 40 years

by ofering training in a range o skills.

Research among the older members o our

communities is instructive ater all, they lived

beore the throwaway society took hold and they

understand what a lower energy society might

look like.

Some examples o courses: recycling grey water,

cooking, bicycle maintenance, natural building,

herbal medicines, basic home energy eciency,

practical ood growing, harvesting rainwater,

composting waste (the list is endless).


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The 12 Ingredients (contd)

Your Great Reskilling program will give people a

powerul realization o their own ability to solve

problems, to achieve practical results and to work

cooperatively alongside other people. Theyll also

appreciate that learning can be un!

9. Build a Bridge to Local Government. Whateverthe degree o groundswell your Transition Initiative

manages to generate, however many practical

projects youve initiated, and however wonderul

your Energy Descent Plan is, you will not progress

ar unless you have cultivated a positive and

productive relationship with your local government

authority. Whether it is planning issues, unding or

networking, you need them on board. Contrary to

your expectations, you may well nd that you are

pushing against an open door.

10. Honor the elders. For those o us born in the1960s when the cheap oil party was in ull swing,

it is very hard to picture a lie with less oil. Every

year o my lie (except or the oil crises o the 70s)

has been underpinned by more energy than the

previous years. In order to rebuild a picture o a

lower energy society, we have to engage with those

who directly remember the transition to the age o

Cheap Oil, especially the period between 1930 and

1960.

While you clearly want to avoid any sense that what

you are advocating is going back or returning to

some dim distant past, there is much to be learnt

rom how things were done in the past, what

the invisible connections between the diferent

elements o society were, and how daily lie was

supported when less oil was available. Finding these

things out can be deeply illuminating, and can lead

to our eeling much more connected to place when

we are developing our Transition Initiatives.

11. Let it go where it wants to go. Although you

may start out developing your Transition Initiativewith a clear idea o where it will go, it will inevitably

go elsewhere. I you try and hold onto a rigid vision,

it will begin to sap your energy and appear to stall.

Your role is not to come up with all the answers,

but to act as a catalyst or the community to design

their own transition.

I you keep your ocus on the key design criteria

building community resilience and reducing the

carbon ootprint youll watch as the collective

genius o the community enables a easible,

practicable and highly inventive solution to

emerge.

12. Create an Energy Descent Plan. At the

moment there is only one completed Energy

Descent Action Plan, the one done or Kinsale in

Ireland. Although this was a student-led project,

it did a very good job o producing a template

that other communities could ollow in designing

pathways away rom oil dependency. Some people

nd the term Energy Descent too negative,

and have chosen to call their EDAP an Energy

Transition Pathway, Community Resilence or

Community Vision Plan.

Whatever it is called, the EDAP sets out a vision

o a powered-down, resilient, relocalized uture,and then backcasts, in a series o practical steps,

creating a map to get there rom here. Every

communitys EDAP will be diferent, both in

content and style. However, they will explore a

wide range o areas as well as energy: energy

descent is an issue which afects every aspect o

our lives.


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Creating An EDAP

Step 1. Establish a baseline. This involves

collecting some basic data on the current practices

o your community, whether in terms o energy

consumption, ood miles or amount o ood

consumed. You could spend years collecting

this inormation, but you arent trying to build a

detailed picture, just getting a ew key indicatorsaround how your place unctions in terms o

arable land, transport, health provision etc. Your

working groups may have identied some o this

inormation.

Step 2: Get hold o any community strategy

plans that are produced by your local

government. Their plans are likely to have time

scales and elements that you need to take into

account, and they will also be a useul source o

inormation and data. You will need to decide how

to integrate your EDAP with their existing plans.

Step 3: The overall vision. What would your

community look like in 15 or 20 years i we were

emitting drastically less CO2, using drastically less

non-renewable energy, and it was well on the way

to rebuilding resilience in all critical aspects o lie?

This process will use inormation gathered in your

Open Space Days, rom Transition Tales and a range

o other visioning days, to create an overall sense

o what the town could be like. Allow yourselves to

dream.

Step 4: Detailed visioning. For each o the

working groups on ood, health, energy etc.

(although this is trickier or Heart and Soul groups

or example), what would their area look like in

detail within the context o the vision set out

above.

Step 5: Backcast in detail.The working groups

then list out a timeline o the milestones,

prerequisites, activities and processes that need

to be in place i the vision is to be achieved. Thisis also the point to dene the resilience indicators

that will tell you i your community is moving in

the right direction.

Step 6: Transition Tales. Alongside the process

above, the Transition Tales group produces

articles, stories, pictures and representations o

the visioned community, giving a tangible sense

through a variety o creative media, o what this

powered down world might look like. These will be

woven into the EDAP.

Step 7: Pull together the backcasts into an

overall plan. Next the diferent groups time lines

are combined together to ensure their coherence.

This might be done on a big wall with post-it

notes to ensure that, or example, the Food Group

havent planned to turn into a market garden the

same car park that the Health & Medicine Group

want to turn into a health center.

Step 8: Create a rst drat. Merge the overall plan

and the Transition Tales into one cohesive whole,

with each area o the plan beginning with a short

summary o the state o play in 2009, ollowed bya year-by-year program or action as identied in

the backcasting process. Once complete, pass the

document out or review and consultation.

Step 9: Finalize the EDAP. Integrate the eedback

into the EDAP. Realistically, this document wont

ever be nal - it will be continually updated

and augmented as conditions change and ideas

emerge.

Step 10: Celebrate! Always a good thing to do.

The 12 Steps set out a plan o action and you

may be orgiven or assuming that Step 12 is the

end o the process. On the contrary, it is with the

completion o Step 12 that your initiative really

begins! The EDAP sets out the work you will be

doing in the uture and in theory once you reach

that stage, your initiatives job becomes the

implementation o the EDAP.


18/34


When aced with the prospect o dicult change and

challenging actions, humans oten construct their own

emotional and psychological barriers that stop them rom

taking those actions. In the Transition Movement we call these

The 7 Buts. Below we give some guidance on how to tackle

what weve seen to be the most typical barriers to change.

Barriers to Transition - The 7 Buts

But weve got no unding

Funding is a poor substitute or enthusiasm and

community involvement, both o which will take

you through the rst phases o Transition. Funding

not always a good thing; unders may demand a

measure o control, and may steer the initiative in

directions that run counter to community interests.

As eco-village designer Max Lindeggar says: I a

project doesnt make a prot it will make a loss.You can make sure your process generates an ad-

equate amount o income through the events that

you hold. As an example, Transition Town Totnes

began in September 2005 with no money at all,

and it has been sel-unding ever since. The talks,

lm screenings and other events that are run bring

in unds sucient to subsidize ree events such as

Open Space Days. You may reach a point where

you have specic projects that will require und-

ing, but until that point youll manage. Retain the

power over whether this happens dont let lack

o unding stop you.

But they wont let us

A ear exists among some environmentalists that

any initiative that actually succeeds in efecting

change will get shut down, suppressed, or at-

tacked by aceless bureaucrats or corporations.

Transition Initiatives operate below the radar,

neither seeking victims nor making enemies. As

awareness o the various challenges build, many

people in positions o power will be enthused and

inspired by what you are doing, and will support,

rather than hinder, your eforts.

But a sustainability group already exist here

and I dont want to step on their toes

Transition Initiatives work to orm common

goals and a shared sense o purpose with exist-

ing groups. Working within a network o existinggroups towards an Energy Descent Action Plan will

enhance and ocus their work along with yours,

rather than replicate or supersede it. Expect other

groups to become some o your strongest allies,

crucial to the success o your Transition.

But no one in this town cares about the environ-

ment

You could easily be orgiven or thinking this,

given the existence o what you might perceive as

an apathetic consumer culture surrounding you.

Dig a bit deeper though, and youll nd that themost surprising people are keen advocates o key

elements o a Transition Initiative, or example lo-

cal ood, local crats, local history and culture. The

key is to go to them, rather than expecting them to

come to you. Seek out common ground, and youll

nd your community to be a ar more interesting

place than you thought it was.


19/34


But its too late to do anything useul

It may be too late, but the likelihood is that it isnt.

That means your (and others) endeavors are abso-

lutely crucial. Dont let hopelessness sabotage your

eforts - as Vandana Shiva says, the uncertainty o

our times is no reason to be certain about hope-

lessness.

But I dont have the right qualications

I you dont do it, who else will? It matters not that

you dont have certain qualications, or years o

experience in gardening or planning. Whats im-

portant is that you care about where you live, that

you see the need to act, and that you are open to

new ways o engaging people. I there was to be

a job description or someone to start this process

rolling it might list the qualities o that person as

being: positive, good with people, having a basic

knowledge o the place and o the key people in

the town.

Remember that you are going to design your own

demise into the process (see Step 1 below). Your

role at this stage is like a gardener preparing the

soil or the ensuing garden, which you may or may

not be around to see.

But I dont have the energy or doing this...

As the quote oten ascribed to Goethe says,

Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it.

Boldness has genius, power and magic in it! The

experience o beginning a Transition Initiative

certainly shows this to be the case. While the idea

o preparing your town (or city, region, county,

or state) or lie beyond oil may seem staggering

in its implications, something about the energy

unleashed by the Transition Initiative process is

unstoppable. You may eel overwhelmed by the

prospect o all the work and complexity, but you

will nd that people will come orward to help.

Many Transition Initiatives have commented

on the serendipity o the process, how the right

people appear at the right time. Something about

seizing that boldness, about making the leap

rom why is no-one doing anything to lets do

something that generates the energy to keep it all

moving. Developing environmental initiatives canseem like pushing a broken down car up a hill - a

hard and unrewarding slog. Transition is like com-

ing down the other side the car starts moving

aster than you can keep up with it, accelerating all

the time. Once you give it the push rom the top o

the hill it will develop its own momentum. Thats

not to say it isnt hard work sometimes, but it is

almost always a pleasure.


20/34


So you have learned a little (or a lot) about the challenges and

opportunities o our times, and you want to start a Transition

Initiative in your community. Congratulations, you are embarking

on a truly critical and exciting path. Below you will learn about

how simple it is to apply or your ocial status. Many initiatives

have told us that they cherish their ormal status, and are very

proud o having reached that point. By registering with TransitionUS you are also playing a critical role in allowing us to paint an

accurate picture o the movement.

Becoming a Transition Initiative

Transition initiatives on all scales (other than

national ones) typically go through a succession o

stages, as ollows.

The Initial Stage: typically, a group o people start

to meet each other, start to discuss the Transition

concept, and begin the process o enthusing each

other to initiate the process.

The Mulling Stage: contact is made withTransition US and the individuals or groups read

the Transition Handbook and let us know o their

mulling status.

The Ocial Stage: the mulling stage can last

or a ew weeks or or many months, depending

on the group. In order to proceed to ormal (aka

ocial) status you and your team simply need to:

Check out the Transition Initiative Checklistand review it with your initiating team.

Complete the application which lists theguidelines and asks or inormation about theinitiative, as well as checking that the initiativeis in the best possible position to proceedsuccessully.

Submit your application by emailing the

completed orm to [email protected]

Criteria

Weve established a drat set o criteria that

tells us how ready a community is to embark on

this journey to a lower-energy uture. I youre

thinking o adopting the Transition model or your

community, take a look at this list and make an

honest appraisal o where you are on these points.

I there are any gaps, it should give you something

to ocus on while you build the initial energy and

contacts around your Initiative.

These criteria are developing all the time, and

certainly arent written in stone. They are designed

to be as helpul to you as possible.

An understanding o peak oil, climate change

and the economic crisis as drivers (to be

written into your groups constitution or

governing documents)

A group o 4-5 people willing to step into

leadership roles (not just the boundlessenthusiasm o a single person)

At least two people rom the core team willing

to attend an initial 2 day training course.

A potentially strong connection to local

government

An initial understanding o the 12 Steps o

Transition


21/34


A commitment to ask or help when needed

A commitment to regularly update your

Transition Initiative web presence

A commitment to write up something on

the Transition US blog once every couple o

months

A commitment, once youre into the

Transition, or your group to give at least twopresentations to other communities (in the

vicinity) that are considering embarking on

this journey a sort o heres what we did or

heres how it or us talk

A commitment to network with other

communities in Transition

Minimal conicts o interests in the core team

A commitment to work with Transition US re

grant applications or unding rom national

grant giving bodies. Your own local trusts areyours to deal with as appropriate.

A commitment to strive or inclusivity across

your entire initiative.

A recognition that although your entire county

or district may need to go through transition,

the rst place or you to start is in your local

community. It may be that eventually the

numbers o Transitioning communities in

your area warrant some central group to help

provide local support, but this will emerge

over time, rather than be imposed. This point is

in response to the several instances o people

rushing of to transition their entire county/

region rather than their local community.

Finally, we recommend that at least oneperson on the core team should have attended

a Permaculture design course. It really does

seem to make a diference

Once you let us know at Transition US that youre

on board with these and ready to set of on your

Transition journey, you open the door to all sorts

o wonderul support, guidance, materials, web

space, training, networking opportunities and

coordinated unding initiatives.

Organizing Your Transition Initiative

Grass-roots, community organizing is really at the heart o getting a

Transition group up-and-running in your community. Be sure to visit the

Transition US Knowledge Hub or tools and inspiration in the ollowing

topic areas:

Getting Started

Diversity Fundraising

Governance

Group Dynamics

Leadership

Promotion Structure

Technology

Tools


22/34


This two-day course is an in-depth experiential introduction

to Transition or those considering bringing Transition to their

community. It is recommended or local communities wishing

to become an internationally-recognized Transition Initiative.

At the Training or Transition (T4T) course, you will:

Explore how the Transition process increases

community resilience

Receive tools or community outreach,

education and engagement

Learn how to summarize the challenges we

ace in ways that move people to positive

action

Understand and know how to workwith obstacles that have prevented our

communities rom recognizing and positively

responding to the challenge o energy

transition

Experience ways that local social and economic

community can be created and strengthened

Learn ways o creating a positive, shared vision

or your communitys uture

Receive support or becoming a Transition

catalyst in your community

Connect with others who are helping yourregion transition to greater stability and

security

Become a part o a rapidly growing positive,

inspirational, global movement!

Training For Transition

Curriculum:

The course describes how to catalyze, build and

acilitate a successul Transition Initiative. It is

packed with imaginative and inspiring ways to

engage your community, and delves into both the

theory and practice o Transition that has worked

so well in hundreds o communities in the U.S. and

around the world.

The Trainers:T4T is provided by proessional trainers who:

Have successully completed an ocially

recognized training course ofered by Transition

US and conducted by Transition UK trainers.

Are actively involved in a local Transition Initiative

Are committed to their own personal change and

growth

Have demonstrated an ability to deliver the

course materials using an interactive model.


23/34


Hosting A Transition Training

Transition US has developed the ollowing set o guidelines to help individuals and communities

host the 2-day Training or Transition (T4T) course in their locale. These guidelines can be ound

online at: www.transitionus.org/training/be-a-host.

T4T Trainers are committed to providing the course in an ecient, cost efective manner with a low

carbon ootprint, and an afordable tuition or participants.

I you decide to host an event please note that all ocial T4T courses are now ofered through

Transition US. To host a training please contact: [email protected]

Monterey County, CA 2009 Oklahoma City, OK 2010

Stelle, IL 200

Ann Arbor, MI 200Twin Cities, MN 2011


24/34


Transition US is a nonprot organization that provides

inspiration, encouragement, support, networking, and training

or Transition Initiatives across the United States. We are

working in close partnership with the Transition Network, a UK

based organization that supports the international Transition

Movement as a whole.

We believe that we can make the transition to a

more sustainable world. We hope that you will join

us.

Our vision:

Our vision is that every community in the United

States has engaged its collective creativity to

unleash an extraordinary and historic transition

to a uture beyond ossil uels; a uture that is

more vibrant, abundant and resilient; one that isultimately preerable to the present.

Our Mission:

Transition US inspires, encourages, supports,

networks and trains individuals and their

communities as they consider, adopt, adapt, and

implement the Transition approach to community

empowerment and action.

Strategic Action Goals:

1. To raise awareness o the need to worktogether to build resilience in the ace o ossil

uel depletion, climate change and economic

crises.

2. To support the emergence and growth o

Transition Initiatives and leaders in all regions

o the United States.

3. To support the continued development and

delivery o high quality education, training and

consulting in support o the advancement o

the Transition Movement in the United States.

4. To mirror the diversity o the United States

in Transition Initiatives by supporting

Initiatives eforts to include all major cultural

and demographic segments o their local

communities.

5. To achieve nancial sustainability or Transition

US and Transition Initiatives in the United

States and build capacity or TUS board and

staf.

About Transition US


25/34


History:

The Transition Network was established in the UK

in late 2006, to support the rapid international

growth o the movement. In 2007, increasing high

levels o interest in the States led to the launch o

Transition US. We were established as a national

support network, in partnership with the Transition

Network so that we could take on the role o

providing co-ordination,support and training to

Transition Initiatives as they

emerged across the States.

The process o ociating

Transition Initiatives in the

States was also handed over

to Transition US.

In December 2008, Transition US invited the UK

ounders o Transition Training, Naresh Giangrande

and Sophy Banks, over to the United States to

give a series o training courses and talks. All

courses were sold out events. One o these was

the inaugural 4-day Train the Trainers course,

in which we selected and trained a team o 21

people who are now acilitating 2-day Training or

Transition courses around the country.

Bringing A New World To LIfe

To learn more about Transition US and the movement in general please visit our

website. There is a wealth o resources on the topics covered in this primer and more.

www.transitionus.org


26/34


JustincaseyouwereundertheimpressionthatTransition

isaprocessdenedbypeoplewhohavealltheanswers,

youneedtobeawareofakeyfact.

Wetrulydontknowifthiswillwork.Transitionisasocial

experimentonamassivescale.

Cheerul Disclaimer!

What we are convinced o is this:

I we wait or the governments, itll be too little, too late

I we act as individuals, itll be too little

But, i we act as communities, it might just be enough, just in time.

Everything contained in this primer is the result o real work undertaken in the real world with community

engagement at its heart. This document, just like the Transition model, is brought to you by people who areactively engaged in Transition in a community. People who are learning by doing - and learning all the time.

People who understand that we cant sit back and wait or someone else to do the work.

People like you.


27/34


Never doubt that a small group of

thoughtful, committed citizens can

change the world. Indeed, it is the only

thing that ever has.

Margaret Mead


28/34


Resilience is the ability o a system or community to withstand

impacts rom outside. An indicator is a good way o measuring

that. Conventionally, the principal way o measuring a reducing

carbon ootprint is CO2 emissions. However, we rmly believe

that cutting carbon while ailing to build resilience is an

insucient response when youre trying to address multiple

shocks such as peak oil, climate change and the economic crisistogether.

Appendix A:

Community Resilience Indicators

So how might you be able to tell that the resilience

o your community is increasing? Resilience indica-

tors might look at the ollowing:

percentage o ood grown locally

amount o local currency in circulation as a

percentage o total money in circulation

number o businesses locally owned

average commuting distances or workers in the

town

average commuting distance or people living in

the town but working outside it

percentage o energy produced locally

quantity o renewable building materials

proportion o essential goods being

manuactured within the community o within a

given distance

proportion o compostable waste that is

actually composted percentage o local trade

carried out in local currency

ratio o car parking space to productive land use

amount o trac on local roads

percentage o medicine prescribed locally that

have been produced within a given radius.

amount o 16 year olds able to grow 10 diferent

varieties o vegetables to a given degree o

competency

percentage o local building materials used in

new housing developments

Resilience is the capacity of a

system to absorb disturbance

and reorganize while

undergoing change, so as to

still retain essentially the samefunction, structure, identity,

and feedbacks.

- Rob Hopkins


29/34


ARE YOU SELF- AND COMMUNITY-SUFFICIENT?

1. I put my savings and investments in community

and regional banks and local institutions.

2. I buy or barter the goods and services I needrom local merchants, organizations, or

individuals.

3. I make my income rom my local economy.

4. I know how to x, grow, build, or create things

(such as repair a roo, grow kale, give a guitar

lesson) that others would want in good times

and hard times.

5. I have an alternative source o livelihood that

could sustain me (and my amily) i my currentsource were no longer viable.

6. I consume locally grown ood that I could aford

even i prices went up substantially (e.g., rom a

ood co-op, backyard garden).

7. I know how to preserve ood and keep a well-

stocked pantry.

8. I have access to sources o water, even when

the weather is unpredictable or the tap water

doesnt work (such as a rainwater tank or a

reliable well).

9. I have ways to get around, even i the gas at the

pump is unavailable or pricey (such as eet, bike,

electric car).

10. I have alternative heat and energy sources (such

as solar panels or a wood stove) i the power

goes out or utilities get expensive.

11. I actively promote the development orenewable energy in my local community.

12. I have a hopeul vision o what my community

and lie can look like in a uture without ossil

uels.

DO YOU HAVE A SUPPORT NETWORK?

13. I have riends and acquaintances in my local

community (and I know their aces, not just their

Facebook pages).

14. I am comortable asking my neighbors i I can

borrow stuf (e.g., tools, ingredients).

15. I could easily call on nearby riends and

neighbors or help in an emergency.

16. I ofer support to people in my community

when they need help.

17. Im active in community groups (like

neighborhood associations, potlucks,

churches, soup kitchens, gardening clubs, artsorganizations, or local political groups).

DO YOU HAVE SOURCES OF PERSONAL

RESILIENCE?

18. I sing, dance, paint, or otherwise participate in

arts or creative work on a regular basis.

19. I regularly engage in activities that help me stay

calm and balanced (such as meditation, exercise

prayer, or spending time in nature).

20. I take care o my health, such as through regular

exercise, a healthy diet, and an appropriate

amount o sleep.

ThisarticlewaswrittenbyYES!Magazinestaff

fortheFall2010issue,AResilientCommunity.

Itisbeingrepublishedherewithpermission.

http://www.yesmagazine.org/issues/a-resilient-

community/how-resilient-are-you

How Resilient Are You?


30/34


Peak Oil is about the end o cheap and plentiul oil. It

recognizes that the ever increasing volumes o oil being

pumped into our economies will peak and then inexorably

decline. Its about understanding how our industrial way o lie

is absolutely dependent on an ever-increasing supply o cheap

oil and making the adjustments that will be necessary as oil

becomes ever more dicult and expensive to obtain.

Peak Oil is not about running out o oil; its about

running out o cheap oil. There will always be

oil let in the ground because its either too hard

to reach, or it takes too much energy to extract.

Regardless o how much money can be made sell-

ing oil, once it takes more than an oil barrels worth

o energy to extract a barrel o oil, the exploration,

the drilling and the pumping will grind to a halt.

From the start o the 1900s, plentiul oil allowed

an industrialized society to massively accelerate itsdevelopment. Ever since it was rst discovered,

there has been more and more oil available (apart

rom two oil shocks in the 1970s when Middle East

crises caused worldwide recessions), and each year,

industrial society has increased its complexity, its

mechanization, its globalized connectedness and

its energy consumption levels.

The problems start when around hal o the recov-

erable oil has been extracted. At this point, the oil

gets more expensive (in cash and energy terms) to

extract, is slower owing and o a lower quality. Forthe rst time in history, we are not able to increase

the amount o oil thats coming out o the ground,

being rened and reaching the market. The result

is that oil supply plateaus and then declines, with

massive ramications or industrialized societies.

As we go into energy decline, we will have decreas-

ing amounts o oil to uel our industrialized way o

lie.

The situation can be summarized as ollows:

O all the ossil uels, oil is uniquely energy

dense and easy to transport.

Ever-increasing amounts o oil have uelled the

growth o industrial economies.

The key elements o industrial societies

- transportation, manuacturing, ood

production, medical equipment and drugs,

home heating, construction - are all reliant on

oil.

The consistent pattern to the rate o extraction

o oil, whether rom individual elds, oil

regions, countries or the entire planet

demonstrates that the rst hal o the oil is easy

to extract and high quality. But once about

hal the recoverable oil has been pumped out,

urther extraction gets more expensive, slower,

more energy intensive and the oil is o a lowerquality.

The pattern means that the ow o oil to the

market, which has been steadily increasing

over the past 150 years, will peak. Ater

that, every successive year will see an ever-

diminishing ow o oil, as well as an increasing

risk o interruptions to supply.

Appendix B:

A Closer Look At Peak Oil


31/34


A growing body o independent oil experts

and oil geologists have calculated that the

peak will occur between 2006 and 2012 (a

ew years o hindsight is required in order to

conrm the peaking point). Many say that it is

happening now.

Technological advances in oil extraction and

prospecting will have only a minor efect on

depletion rates. As an example, when the US

hit its oil production peak in 1972, the rate o

depletion over the next decades was high,

despite a signicant wave o technological

innovations.

To understand the degree to which Peak Oil will a-

ect the industrial world, here is the opening para-

graph o an executive summary o a report pre-

pared or the US government in 2005 by an agency

o experts in risk management and oil analysis:The peaking o world oil production presents the

U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk

management problem. As peaking is approached,

liquid uel prices and price volatility will increase

dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the

economic, social, and political costs will be unprec-

edented. Viable mitigation options exist on both

the supply and demand sides, but to have sub-

stantial impact, they must be initiated more than a

decade in advance o peaking.

Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation& Risk Management. Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC

According to Jeremy Gilbert, ormer Chie Petro-

leum Engineer at BP, in May 2007: I expect to see a

peak sometime beore 2015 and decline rates at

4-8% per year.

The opening paragraph o the Peak Oil Report pro-

duced by Portland, Oregon (population 550,000)

explains their concerns:

In the past ew years, powerul evidence has

emerged that casts doubt on that assumption [that

oil and natural gas will remain plentiul and aford-

able] and suggests that global production o both

oil and natural gas is likely to reach its historic peak

soon. This phenomenon is reerred to as Peak Oil.

Given both the continuous rise in global demand

or these products and the undamental role they

play in all levels o social, economic and geopoliti-

cal activities, the consequences o such an event

are enormous.

Portland has incorporated the Oil Depletion Pro-

tocol in its targets, aiming to reduce its oil and gas

consumption by 2.6% per year, reaching a 25%

reduction by 2020.

Apart rom a ew notable exceptions, national and

local leaders are not stepping up to address Peak

Oil problems in any meaningul way. I the political

leaders arent going to x the problem, who is? It s

going to be up to us in our local communities to

step up into leadership positions.


32/34


Anunderstandingofexponentialcurves.iscriticalto

fullygraspingtheperdictimentwearefacing.The

followingisexerptedfromChrisMartensensCrash

Course.

IntheCrashCourse,wewilllearnafewfounda-tionalKeyConcepts.Nonearemoreimportant

thanexponentialgrowth.Understandingthiswill

greatlyenhanceourchancestoformabetter

future.

Heresaclassicchartdisplayingexponential

growthachartpatternthatisoftencalleda

hockeystick.Wearechartinganamountof

somethingovertime.Theonlyrequirementfora

graphtoenduplookinglikethisisthatthething

beingmeasuredgrowsbysomepercentageovereachincrementoftime.

Theslowerthepercentagerateofgrowth,the

greaterthelengthoftimewedneedtochartin

ordertovisuallyseethishockeystickshape.

AnotherthingIwantyoutotakeawayfromthis

chartisthatonceanexponentialfunctionturns

thecorner,eventhoughthepercentagerate

ofgrowthmightremainconstantandpossibly

quitelow,theamountsdonot.Theypileup

fasterandfaster.

Inthisparticularcase,youarelookingatachart

ofsomethingthathistoricallygrewatlessthan

1%peryear.Itisworldpopulation,andbe-

causeitisonlygrowingatroughly1%peryear,

weneedtolookatseveralthousandsofyears

todetectthishockeystickshape.Thegreen

ishistoryandtheredisthemostrecentUN

Appendix C:

Intro to Exponential Growthprojectionofpopulationgrowthforjustthenext42years.

Certainlybynow,math-mindedfolksmightbe

startingtogetalittleuncomfortablehere,be-

causetheymightfeelthatIamnotpresenting

thisinformationinaclassicalorevenaccurate

way.

Wheremathematicianshavebeentrainedto

deneexponentialgrowthintermsoftherateof

change,wearegoingtofocusontheamountofchange.Botharevalid;itsjustonewayis

easiertoexpressasaformulaandtheotheris

easierformostpeopletointuitivelygrasp.

Unliketherateofchange,theamountof

changeisnotconstant;itgrowslargerand

largerwitheverypassingunitoftime,andthats

whyitismoreimportantforustoappreciate

thantherate.Thisissuchanimportantconcept

thatIwilldedicatethenextchaptertoillustrat-

ingit.

Also,mathematicianswouldsaythatthereisno

turnthecornerstageofanexponentialchart,

becausethisisjustanartifactofwherewedraw

thelefthandscale.Thatis,anexponentialchart

alwayslookslikeahockeystickateverymo-

mentintime,aslongasweadjusttheleftaxis

properly.


33/34


Butifyouknowthelimits,orboundaries,of

whatyouaremeasuring,thenyoucanxthe

leftaxis,andtheturnthecornerstageisabso-

lutelyrealandvitallyimportant.

Thisisacrucialdistinction,andourfuturede-

pendsonmoreofusappreciatingthis.

Forexample,thetotalcarryingcapacityofthe

earthforhumansisthoughttobesomewherein

thiszone,giveortakeafewbillion.Becauseof

this,theturnthecornerstageisveryreal,of

immenseimportancetous,andnotanartifact

ofgraphicaltrickery.

Thecriticaltake-awayforexponentialfunctions,

theonethingIwantyoutorecall,relatestothe

conceptofspeedingup.

Youcanthinkofthekeyfeatureofexponential

growtheitherastheAMOUNTthatisaddedgrowinglargerovereachadditionalunitoftime,

oryoucanthinkofitastheTIMEshrinking

betweeneachadditionalunitofamountadded.

Eitherway,thethemeisspeedingup.

Toillustratethisusingpopulation:Ifwestarted

with1millionpeopleandsetthegrowthrateto

ameasly1%peryear,wedndthatitwould

take694yearsbeforeweachievedabillion

people.Butwedbeat2billionpeopleafteronly

100moreyears,whilethethirdbillionwould

requirejust41moreyears.Then29years,

then22,andthennallyonly18yearstoadd

another,tobringusto6billionpeople.Thatis,

eachadditionalbillionpeopletookashorterand

shorteramountoftimetoachieve.Herewecan

seethethemeofspeedingup.

Thisnextchartisofoilconsumption,perhaps

themostimportantresourceofthemall,which

hasbeengrowingatthemuchfasterrateof

nearly3%peryear.Sowecandetectthehock-

ey-stickshapeoverthecourseofjustonehun-dredandftyyears.Andhere,too,wecanx

theleftaxis,becauseweknowwithreasonable

accuracyhowmuchoiltheworldcanmaximally

produce.So,again,havingturnedthecorner

isextremelyrelevantandimportanttous.

AndherestheUSmoneysupply,whichhas

beencompoundingatincrediblerates,ranging

between5%and18%peryear.Sothischart

onlyneedstobeafewdecadeslongtoseethe

hockeystickeffect.

Andheresworld-widewateruse,species

extinction,sheriesexploited,andforestcover

lost.Eachoneoftheseisaniteresource,as

aremanyothercriticalresources,andquitea

fewareapproachingtheirlimits.

Andhereistheworldyoulivein.Ifitseemslike

thepaceofchangeisspeedingup,well,thats

becauseitis.Youhappentoliveatatimewhen

humanswillnallyhavetoconfrontthefactthat

ourexponentialmoneysystemandresource

usewillencounterhard,physicallimits.

Andbehindallofthis,drivingeverybitofevery

graphisthenumberofpeopleonthesurfaceof

theplanet.

Takenoneatatime,anyoneofthesechartscouldcommandthefullattentionofevery

earnestpersononthefaceoftheplanet,but

weneedtounderstandthattheyare,infact,all

relatedandconnected.Theyareallcompound

graphs,andtheyarebeingdrivenbycom-

poundingforces.

Totryandsolveone,youdneedtounderstand

howitrelatestotheotheronesthatyousee,as

wellasothersnotdisplayedhere,becausethey

allintersectandoverlap.

Thefactthatyoulive

here,inthepresence

ofmultipleexponential

graphsrelatingtoev-

erythingfrommoneyto

populationtospecies

extinction,haspowerful

implicationsforyourlife

andthelivesofthose

whowillfollowyou.

Itdeservesyourvery

highestattention.

Learn more at:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse


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Transition Primer US v2.0