Trade-related policy developmentsand global food security

Kym AndersonUniversity of Adelaide and Australian National University

kym.anderson@adelaide.edu.au

ABARES Outlook Conference, Canberra, 7-8 March 2017

Key question

Can we feed 8.5 billion people in 2030 (of which 3.2 billion will be middle-income Asians demanding higher-protein diets) …

… and at the same time reduce malnutrition and eliminate hunger globally?

including among developing country farmers, who are >1/4th of the world’s workforce, and 2/3rdsof the world’s extreme poor

[World Bank, Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2016, October]

Number of undernourished people not yet declining in SSAfrica and South Asia (millions)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Africa south of the SaharaSouth AsiaDeveloping Countries

Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?

Requires increased productivity of resources employed in agriculture

Investing more in agricultural research can boost farm productivity, but takes decades to have full impact

Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?

Requires increased productivity of resources employed in agriculture

Investing more in agricultural research can boost farm productivity, but takes decades to have full impact

Meanwhile:• public investments in ag R&D has been falling as % of ag GDP (globally, from

0.9% in 2000 to 0.75% in 2011), and

• climate change is reducing global ag. land productivity

Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?

Requires increased productivity of resources employed in agriculture

Investing more in agricultural research can boost farm productivity, but takes decades to have full impact

Meanwhile:• public investments in ag R&D has been falling as % of ag GDP (globally, from

0.9% in 2000 to 0.75% in 2011), and• climate change is reducing global ag. land productivity

A more-immediate way to enhance food security and nutrition is to reform ag. trade-distorting policies

How did previous societies avoid Mathus’ problem?

Britain’s David Ricardo famously explained, exactly two centuries ago (in 1817), how nations can gain from trading with other nations by exploiting their comparative advantage

which Britain embraced by repealing its Corn Laws in 1846, and re-opening trade with France from 1860

• which in turn led to other countries in Western Europe also reducing their agricultural protectionism

Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…

Distant past

Recent past

Future

Distant past: role of int’l trade

For agriculture’s first 10,000 years, trade was not in final farm products, but rather in agric. inputs:

seeds/cuttings domesticated breeding animals (& their diseases!)knowledge/production technologies

Prohibitive costs of trading final farm productslow value per ton relative to shipping & spoilage costs, until trade costs fell from mid-19th century

• Steam engine, led to railways and steamships• Steel hulls for ships on high seas• Refrigeration for ocean transport (late 19th century)• Telegraph also lowered trade costs

Industrial Revolution boosted agric intercontinental trade & real prices

Initially imports of fibres for Britain’s mechanizing textile industry

cotton, esp. from USA, & wool, esp. from Aust• During 1788-1860, international terms of trade of “periphery”

countries grew at 1.5%/year

Then also food imports for urbanizing population

Industrial Revolution boosted agric intercontinental trade & real prices

Initially imports of fibres for Britain’s mechanizing textile industry

cotton, esp. from US & wool, esp. from Aust• During 1788-1860, international terms of trade of “periphery”

countries grew at 1.5%/year

Then also food imports for urbanizing population=> improved international terms of trade for primary-exporting countries • UK growth lowered int’l prices of manufactures and

boosted import demand for primary products

19th century inter-continental trade and globalization

Agric & non-agric trade both grew at 3.5%/year during 1850-1913

(& both fell 0.8%/year during 1925-38)

=> agric was still half of global trade in 1938 (

Boom in primary product prices in 19th century (1796-1913), decline in Britain’s terms of trade (to late 1850s)

Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…

Distant past

Recent past

Future

Real int’l prices of farm products since 1920

Reversal of 1790-1920 upward trend: real agric prices declined at 0.7%/year in 20th century

Real int’l agric prices, 1900-2000(Source: World Bank, 1977-79 = 100)

y = -0.60x + 134R² = 0.41

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Food

y = -0.98x + 167R² = 0.63

0

50

100

150

200

250

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Non-food agric

Real int’l prices of farm products declined in 20th century for 2 reasons

1. New agricultural technologies ensured supplies expanded faster than global demand

2. Agricultural protection growth in high-income countries put extra downward pressure on real int’l agric prices through to 1980s

• … although offset somewhat by anti-agricultural policy bias in developing countries

Trade policy impact on real international prices of farm products

Agric protection growth in high-income countries & anti-agric policy bias in developing countries had 3 impacts in 20th century:

• shrunk agriculture’s share of global trade,

• slowed rise in share of agric output exported,

• ‘thinned’ int’l food markets and so made international food prices more volatile

Chart1

1913

1929

1937

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

Agric share of all goods trade (%)

Agric share of all global goods trade (%)

50

50

50

40

24

16

12

9

7

7

StatisticalData (1)

countriescountry codesitemitem codeselementelement codes196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

World + (Total)5000Agricult.Products,Total + (Total)1882Export Value (1000 $)592232113959334173153673340640020686409037744295953843118147439173864667077551938905559256476640429896234179118984947123932962133153693152962817172732848204225772233823677233146989213088165208826567220945685208668766228989412252645702286523104302044565325576226328668137357345131338738928388457665442904898465542176457577331437733309417165058410983435414355943442672302525226365607329843653300431721260298873337909106303682395022422010800365461313940192

World + (Total)5000Total Merchandise Trade10Export Value (1000 $)5922135309613142112769154674857173302536188345318205797598217032216241797083275187094315431609351278038413564402578028444849207197882173140998054236113393555213086801501653055007201884397619904460551862622998182567606219261120511956852896214824500125090914372863193022308311385334943115393499256430375244304737489903014276976050511469485053423932655540219114546737364556675203376404720976612382930964419280307517872848910541910410370825126119351633831398308924216144951244125335602101526897420418302356997

Sheet1

Agric share of all goods trade (%)

191350

192950

193750

195140

196124

197116

198112

19919

20017

20117

Sheet1

Agric share of all goods trade (%)

Key agric policy features, 1960 to mid-1980sHigh-income countries (HICs) used variable import restrictions and export subsidies to:

protect & insulate farmers from int’l food marketsDeveloping countries (DCs) used variable agric. export restrictions plus overvalued exchange rates and manuf. import tariffs to:

boost industrialization, and placate urban demand for lower & stable food prices

Both slowed agriculture’s globalization, and both lowered farm incomes in DCs

Farm policy reforms since mid-1980s

Reduction in farm supports in many HICs

… as captured by estimates of Nominal Rate of Assistance (NRA) to farmers

• NRA = % by which price of a farm product in domestic market exceeds that in int’l market

Ups & downs of agric NRAs for HICs

Farm policy reforms since mid-1980s

In DCs, reduction in agric. export taxation

… & lowering of protection of their manufacturers

Agric NRAs for DCs (%)

Relative Rate of Assistance (RRA) to DC farmers: from negative to slightly positive

25

Australia’s RRA: very similar to DCs’ (%)

26

Chart1

1904190419041904

1905190519051905

1906190619061906

1907190719071907

1908190819081908

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1911191119111911

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1914191419141914

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1927192719271927

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1929192919291929

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1931193119311931

1932193219321932

1933193319331933

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1940194019401940

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1950195019501950

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1960196019601960

1961196119611961

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1965196519651965

1966196619661966

1967196719671967

1968196819681968

1969196919691969

1970197019701970

1971197119711971

1972197219721972

1973197319731973

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1976197619761976

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1980198019801980

1981198119811981

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1989198919891989

1990199019901990

1991199119911991

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1995199519951995

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1997199719971997

1998199819981998

1999199919991999

2000200020002000

2001200120012001

2002200220022002

2003200320032003

2004200420042004

2005200520052005

2006200620062006

2007200720072007

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2009200920092009

2010201020102010

2011201120112011

2012201220122012

2013201320132013

2014201420142014

2015201520152015

NRA agric

NRA manuf

NRA prim

RRA

32.6

4.7233431288

-21.0231198123

31.7

8.5274291546

-17.5949664733

30.8

5.1177450578

-19.6347514849

29.4

4.9688232337

-18.8803529879

28.8

6.13134993

-17.5998835947

33.7

6.1846895929

-20.579888113

33.5

7.4493236633

-19.5136152335

33.3

7.1290679964

-19.6331072795

31.5

7.4759179473

-18.2692639184

30.6

6.1128840127

-18.7497059627

30.9

4.9251510498

-19.8432765089

31.6

3.8964800347

-21.0513069645

28.1

4.3649371394

-18.5285424361

27.5

4.1351305643

-18.3253877927

22.8

5.1384272299

-14.3823882493

21.8

3.9180560962

-14.6813989358

24.8

4.1677592382

-16.5322442002

23.5

2.7006059025

-16.8416146539

29.4

3.4357006309

-20.065146344

28.2

3.4297242352

-19.3215879601

28.4

4.8741071916

-18.322346424

30

3.4434648442

-20.428103966

32.2

3.9512689641

-21.3681777881

33.4

4.1399873374

-21.9340424757

35

4.4764055876

-22.6100699351

36.2

4.2730291059

-23.4412414788

43.2

6.3851570151

-25.7086892353

52.2

6.0167710451

-30.3437772371

63.4

7.5392069922

-34.1865318285

57.2

6.9995639279

-31.9341196388

56

5.6255029256

-32.2913442785

50.8

7.8220076005

-28.4999949599

48.6

5.1813672463

-29.2184608033

47.9

3.6846913403

-29.895408154

43

2.5385975339

-28.2946870392

48.9

4.908578396

-29.5442724003

46.5

3.6182387495

-29.2708267921

53.2

3.3748953159

-32.5229142847

41.7

4.1285438109

-26.5147891243

45.6

5.303308561

-27.6762990652

46

8.3312479556

-25.8005150989

48.2

9.8936768009

-25.8477214569

41.4

6.4339707695

-24.7284506581

41.3

-11.0046317062

-37.0167244913

29.7

-3.3578796055

-25.4879565193

27

-3.3145043416

-23.869688458

26.2

-3.3277916994

-23.3976162436

24.5

-1.7930254759

-21.1188959646

23

-0.4819263169

-19.0909970056

33.9

2.8043409889

-23.2230463115

26.3

4.353517825

-17.3764704473

22.9

5.0231144499

-14.5458792108

22

4.4629543592

-14.3746275744

21.9

6.3557461047

-12.7516438846

19.8

8.1306963842

-9.7406541033

21.7

5.6541384494

-13.1847670917

21.2

7.0480852181

-11.6764973448

20

8.6759340306

-9.4367216412

22.1

8.3229306762

-11.2834310596

22

7.6882472406

-11.7309448848

22.3

5.438292349

-13.7871689705

22.9

6.567408323

-13.2893341554

22

7.1880049439

-12.1409795542

22.4

6.7578429462

-12.7795400766

22.8

10.4183970045

-10.0827385957

24

9.4890080733

-11.7024128441

23

8.3279150505

-11.9285243491

23

10.917052044

-9.8235349236

22

7.3922608283

-11.9735566981

22

4.9729025528

-13.9566372518

17

4.0663660803

-11.0543879655

15

2.290016328

-11.0521597148

16

2.6005191066

-11.5512766323

15

3.0918004998

-10.3549560871

15

3.9641242402

-9.5964137042

15

2.2670374745

-11.0721413265

15

1.6299773234

-11.6261066753

15

2.0501039231

-11.2607791973

16

1.9226476009

-12.1356486199

16

2.9041654355

-11.2895125556

13

1.9872651552

-9.7457830485

13

1.7738067303

-9.9346843095

12

1.8104821003

-9.097783839

12

3.3378046505

-7.7341029906

11

2.4950868816

-7.6620838905

10

2.0445298334

-7.232245606

9

1.7411594043

-6.659486785

9

2.5911093866

-5.8797161591

8

1.815964647

-5.7259586602

7

1.6265427133

-5.0219226978

6

1.670639989

-4.0843018972

5

1.584589839

-3.2527715819

5

1.5200304797

-3.314256686

4

1.5679444283

-2.3385149728

3

1.2134154711

-1.7345480863

3

1.1074259774

-1.8374505074

3

0.8468161177

-2.0904697886

2.0112269774

0.4106448719

-1.5690254425

1.9963974856

0.4490458851

-1.5170649538

2.0027787024

0.3878566301

-1.5832138034

2.0223251693

0.4343688685

-1.5564792296

1.872

0.3649538508

-1.4793526673

1.872

0.2925761856

-1.5504003204

1.872

0.2377701822

-1.6041992087

1.872

0.4938044975

-1.3528697802

1.872

0.2014821419

-1.6398204199

1.8

0.2310397232

-1.5412183465

1.8

0.1972024989

-1.5744572703

1.9

0.2612098139

-1.608233745

1.9

0.2845190695

-1.5853591075

1.9

0.2845190695

-1.5853591075

1.9

0.2845190695

-1.5853591075

Fig 1 TOT

Gillitzer and Kearns (2005), updated for 2005-15 from ABS Cat No 5302.0

Figure 1: Int'l terms of trade (1967 = 100)

1871109

1872112

1873106

1874109

1875112

1876113

1877108

1878106

1879111

1880114

1881112

1882115

1883116

1884115

1885112

1886109

1887109

1888108

1889105

1890103

189199

189296

189393

189488

189587

189689

189787

189888

1899101

1900105

190194

1902101

1903111

1904112

1905118

1906116

1907115

1908111

1909111

1910111

1911107

1912107

1913109

1914107

1915109

1916107

1917106

191898

191985

192083

192171

192268

192397

1924132

1925154

1926112

1927112

1928125

1929117

193094

193171

193271

193375

193497

193582

1936101

1937118

193899

193982

194085

194176

194266

194362

194460

194565

194671

194787

1948103

1949115

1950117

1951171

1952107

1953116

1954121

1955110

195699

1957107

1958100

195989

1960100

196194

196295

196397

1964106

1965101

1966101

1967100

196897

196998

197099

197193

197293

1973112

1974118

1975105

1976100

197797

197888

197989

198092

198191

198290

198388

198491

198589

198681

198776

198883

198995

199095

199190

199287

199384

199481

199584

199687

199789

199888

199984

200087

200189

200290

200392

200499

2005108

2006120

2007128

2008136

2009146

2010140

2011169

2012170

2013153

2014148

2015132

Jun-20031.592

Jun-20047.499

Jun-20059.6108

Jun-200610.8120

Jun-20077.2128

Jun-20085.6136

Jun-20097.6146

Jun-2010-4.0140

Jun-201120.6169

Jun-20120.4170

Jun-2013-9.7153

Jun-2014-3.7148

Jun-2015-10.3132

Fig 1 TOT

Figure 1: Int'l terms of trade (1967 = 100)

Fig 2 RER

F15 REAL EXCHANGE RATE MEASURES

TitleReal trade-weighted indexReal import-weighted indexReal export-weighted indexReal G7 GDP-weighted index

DescriptionAustralian dollar trade-weighted exchange rate index, adjusted for relative consumer price levelsAustralian dollar import-weighted exchange rate index, adjusted for relative consumer price levelsAustralian dollar export-weighted exchange rate index, adjusted for relative consumer price levelsAustralian dollar exchange rate index against a GDP weighted average of the G7 currencies, adjusted for relative consumer price levels

FrequencyQuarterlyQuarterlyQuarterlyQuarterly

TypeOriginal, quarter-averageOriginal, quarter-averageOriginal, quarter-averageOriginal, quarter-average

UnitsIndex, March 1995 = 100Index, March 1995 = 100Index, March 1995 = 100Index, March 1995 = 100

Fig 2: Real exchange rate (March 1995 = 100)

SourceRBARBARBARBA

Publication date1-Aug-141-Aug-141-Aug-141-Aug-14

Series IDFRERTWIFRERIWIFREREWIFRERGWI

Jun-1970146140.72158.80

Sep-1970145139.94158.21

Dec-1970145140.19158.03

Mar-1971146141.04158.94

Jun-1971147141.63159.88

Sep-1971147141.45159.43

Dec-1971147142.20158.58

Mar-1972146141.01155.88

Jun-1972145139.98154.30

Sep-1972145140.01154.20

Dec-1972145140.43154.33

Mar-1973156151.64164.40

Jun-1973156151.98162.60

Sep-1973155150.87162.12

Dec-1973162158.69169.22

Mar-1974164161.19170.26

Jun-1974160157.78165.88

Sep-1974170166.69176.52

Dec-1974156151.97162.54

Mar-1975159154.48165.24

Jun-1975161156.67166.91

Sep-1975163158.75169.89

Dec-1975164160.06172.23

Mar-1976165160.99172.84

Jun-1976163159.40170.54

Sep-1976164160.35170.63

Dec-1976154150.56160.91

Mar-1977145141.32150.18

Jun-1977145142.58149.93

Sep-1977145142.51149.18

Dec-1977144141.47146.10

Mar-1978142139.63144.07

Jun-1978137135.73137.92

Sep-1978132131.68130.98

Dec-1978130129.06128.83

Mar-1979131129.09130.74

Jun-1979131128.95132.07

Sep-1979132130.14134.13

Dec-1979132129.07135.45

Mar-1980131128.43135.25123.48

Jun-1980132129.58134.96124.69

Sep-1980135132.59136.71127.43

Dec-1980136133.92136.35128.69

Mar-1981137136.52138.16131.00

Jun-1981139138.12140.91132.18

Sep-1981144142.86146.94135.31

Dec-1981142140.35143.95133.05

Mar-1982140138.41143.09131.19

Jun-1982139137.08142.49129.63

Sep-1982136134.14140.58126.63

Dec-1982135132.96138.94125.05

Mar-1983132130.37135.09123.12

Jun-1983126124.08129.04116.85

Sep-1983130128.34133.55119.83

Dec-1983134132.98137.46123.58

Mar-1984137136.49140.98126.40

Jun-1984134133.00137.25123.74

Sep-1984130128.67134.65119.12

Dec-1984133131.71137.80121.35

Mar-1985123122.04128.28113.08

Jun-1985109107.65113.23101.51

Sep-1985113111.29116.65104.72

Dec-1985106104.75109.44100.13

Mar-1986106104.49109.1899.77

Jun-1986105103.39107.3999.55

Sep-19869189.2193.1987.35

Dec-19869694.1099.0191.35

Mar-19879895.73100.8293.20

Jun-198710299.49103.9597.50

Sep-1987104101.37106.0599.16

Dec-19879996.81100.9495.94

Mar-198810097.76101.4096.33

Jun-1988108105.71109.08103.99

Sep-1988116113.90117.14111.05

Dec-1988118116.65119.49113.90

Mar-1989121119.70122.48116.72

Jun-1989115113.11115.89110.78

Sep-1989115112.89116.08110.37

Dec-1989118115.58119.28112.35

Mar-1990117114.15119.33110.98

Jun-1990119115.67121.64111.86

Sep-1990121117.94124.08114.29

Dec-1990113110.96115.89107.58

Mar-1991114111.53116.80107.90

Jun-1991117114.40119.30111.53

Sep-1991119116.31121.09113.36

Dec-1991116113.15117.83109.79

Mar-1992110108.16112.73104.95

Jun-1992111108.48113.20105.24

Sep-1992104101.55106.1298.07

Dec-199210199.54102.8596.80

Mar-199310199.67102.3797.28

Jun-19939897.2298.9195.47

Sep-19939493.9794.9292.80

Dec-19939594.0194.9793.20

Mar-1994102101.42102.2499.51

Jun-1994102101.49101.8899.91

Sep-1994101101.15101.3799.85

Dec-1994103102.48102.53101.70

Mar-1995100100.00100.00100.00

Jun-19959393.3092.1694.09

Sep-19959898.1097.8198.25

Dec-1995101100.49101.14100.57

Mar-1996103102.75103.53103.04

Jun-1996109108.03108.48108.79

Sep-1996108107.73108.75108.21

Dec-1996110109.23110.56109.80

Mar-1997111110.37111.85111.26

Jun-1997110109.47110.46110.32

Sep-1997107106.75108.22106.36

Dec-1997108104.80110.92100.50

Mar-1998111106.43117.1898.20

Jun-1998106100.78110.6393.33

Sep-199810297.23107.4889.20

Dec-19989994.97103.6989.09

Mar-199910197.50105.6890.98

Jun-1999106102.16110.4693.52

Sep-1999105101.64109.6292.79

Dec-199910399.40106.5090.77

Mar-200010299.25106.1090.18

Jun-20009794.48100.4485.87

Sep-20009794.03100.1684.75

Dec-20009289.2795.5180.53

Mar-20019490.1097.7181.81

Jun-20019389.4097.2280.33

Sep-20019389.2697.1880.44

Dec-20019489.6998.2380.69

Mar-20029792.44102.0382.73

Jun-200210195.87105.3985.93

Sep-20029792.94102.0384.59

Dec-200210095.00104.6986.32

Mar-200310498.93108.9390.21

Jun-2003111105.25116.2695.43

Sep-2003114108.54119.2697.58

Dec-2003120114.74125.67102.49

Mar-2004126120.48132.03107.36

Jun-2004120114.50125.40102.59

Sep-2004119113.53124.34101.99

Dec-2004124118.12129.27106.43

Mar-2005126120.43131.13108.57

Jun-2005126121.12131.35108.50

Sep-2005127122.13132.50108.54

Dec-2005127121.15132.14107.87

Mar-2006125119.85130.40107.56

Jun-2006125119.14130.65107.74

Sep-2006127120.72133.06108.99

Dec-2006128121.87134.37110.70

Mar-2007130123.76136.85112.84

Jun-2007136129.51143.18117.86

Sep-2007138131.20144.85119.22

Dec-2007142134.95149.21123.33

Mar-2008142134.49149.07124.81

Jun-2008147138.12154.98129.46

Sep-2008142133.35150.39125.48

Dec-2008114107.16120.26102.17

Mar-2009115108.78121.82102.13

Jun-2009129121.97136.50113.00

Sep-2009138130.69145.88120.21

Dec-2009148139.78155.21127.98

Mar-2010149141.84156.05128.76

Jun-2010147140.56154.12127.34

Sep-2010148141.52154.56128.32

Dec-2010157149.57163.22136.48

Mar-2011159151.56165.14138.49

Jun-2011165156.48171.44144.43

Sep-2011161153.47167.36142.25

Dec-2011159151.46164.83138.92

Mar-2012165157.81171.49143.88

Jun-2012160152.49166.34139.45

Sep-2012165157.86171.43142.51

Dec-2012164155.69169.92143.13

Mar-2013167157.45174.25146.45

Jun-2013162152.15169.63143.14

Sep-2013151142.23158.56134.98

Dec-2013153143.30160.08136.67

Mar-2014149139.71156.28133.93

Jun-2014154144.96162.22137.69

Sep-2014154

Dec-2014147

Mar-2015140

Jun-2015139

Sep-2015133

Dec-2015133

Mar-2016134

Jun-2016136

Fig 2 RER

FRERTWI

Fig 3 RRA

Figure 3: Relative rate of assistance

NRA agricNRA manufNRA primRRARRA manuf

19046.5335-2127

190511.6329-1821

19066.8315-2024

19076.7295-1923

19088.0296-1821

19097.8346-2126

19109.2347-2024

19118.8337-2024

19129.3327-1822

19137.6316-1923

19146.0315-2025

19154.8324-2127

19165.1284-1923

19174.9284-1822

19186.2235-1417

19194.5224-1517

19204.7254-1720

19213.1243-1720

19224.1293-2025

19233.9283-1924

19245.6285-1822

19254.0303-2026

19264.6324-2127

19274.8334-2228

19285.2354-2329

19294.9364-2331

19307.4436-2635

19317.1526-3044

19328.7638-3452

19338.1577-3247

19346.4566-3248

19359.1518-2840

19366.0495-2941

19374.2484-3043

19383.0433-2839

19395.9495-3042

19404.3474-2941

19414.1533-3348

19424.9424-2736

19436.1465-2838

19449.5468-2635

194511.44810-2635

19467.4416-2533

1947-12.541-11-3759

1948-3.830-3-2534

1949-3.727-3-2431

1950-3.626-3-2331

1951-1.925-2-2127

1952-0.623-0-1924

19533.1343-2330

19544.9264-1721

19555.8235-1517

19565.2224-1417

19577.2226-1315

19589.4208-1011

19596.4226-1315

19608.1217-1213

196110.0209-910

19629.6228-1113

19638.7228-1213

19646.2225-1416

19657.6237-1315

19668.7227-1214

19678.1227-1315

196813.42310-1011

196912.0249-1213

197012.2238-1214

197116.72311-1011

197211.4227-1214

19737.2225-1416

19745.7174-1112

19753.7152-1112

19764.4163-1213

19775.4153-1012

19787.3154-1011

19794.2152-1112

19803.2152-1213

19814.5152-1113

19824.3162-1214

19838.1163-1113

19844.7132-1011

19854.4132-1011

19864.8122-910

19877.7123-88

19885.4112-88

19893.9102-78

19903.692-77

19916.593-66

19924.682-66

19933.972-55

19943.862-44

19953.852-33

19963.652-33

19973.742-22

19983.031-22

19992.631-22

20002.031-22

20011.020-22

20021.020-22

20031.020-22

20041.020-22

20051.020-12

20061.020-22

20071.020-22

20082.020-11

20091.020-22

20101.020-22

20111.020-22

20121.320-22

20131.320-22

201420-2

201520-2

Fig 3 RRA

NRA agric

NRA manuf

NRA prim

RRA

Fig 4 Ag & Man %

Fig 4b Ag share of GDP (%)

197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

Australia778976657766455545553344344333443333232222232

Canada444555444444433343333333333332222222222222222

US222333222222212222122111111111111111111111111

W. Europe545544433333333332232222222222222111111111111

Japan655655554433333333222222222222211111111111111

Manuf share of GDP (%)

197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

Australia24232221212020191919191817171717161615151414141414141314131312121212111110109988777

Canada222222222120191920201918161718181818191817161516171818181819191818171615141311111111111111

US242323232221222222222120191919191818191818171717171716161615151413131313131312121212121212

W. Europe292828282826262626252524242323242423232323222220202019202019191919181818181817161717171717

Japan343332333128292828272726262627272625262526252523222222222121212019202020202020182019191919

24222429346

23222328335

22222328325

21222328336

21212228315

20202126285

20192226295

19192226285

19202226284

19202225274

19192125273

18182024263

17161924263

17171923263

17181923273

17181924273

16181824263

16181823253

15191923262

15181823252

14171823262

14161722252

14151722252

14161720232

14171720222

14181720222

13181619222

14181620222

13181620212

13191519212

12191519212

12181419201

12181319191

12171318201

11161318201

11151318201

10141318201

10131318201

9111217201

9111216181

8111217201

8111217191

7111217191

7111217191

7111217191

Fig 4 Ag & Man %

Australia

Canada

US

W. Europe

Japan

Fig 5 Sector % GDP

Australia

Canada

US

W. Europe

Japan

Fig 6 ag

Australia

Canada

US

W. Europe

Japan

Fig 7 agmin pr

Butlin Dixon and Lloyd (2014), updated for 2011-15 from ABS Cat No 5204.0

Sectoral shares of GDP/GNP (Current Prices) %

AgricultureMiningManufacturingAgri+miningAgri+mining+manufOtherAgricultureMiningManufacturingAgricultureMiningManufacturing

1800310331346618009208183590010

180130033033671801920818369109

1802460146475318029802183789011

18034407445149180387013183884016

1804370237396118049406183983017

1805470247485218059703184078022

1806460046465418069901184184016

1807490349514918079505184282018

1808450245475318089505184385015

1809470247495118099604184483017

1810610561663418109307184584116

1811580258604018119703184680416

1812560256584218129604184778418

1813550255574318139703184873621

1814520452564418149307184973422

1815560456604018159307185073621

181648064854461816890111851681022

18174904495347181793071852266113

181851055156441818900101853305317AgricultureMiningManuf.Services

181954035456441819950518543741221835570637

182054035457431820950518554441151836550540

182156045660401821930718564143151837480646

182255055559411822920818574138211838430849

182352055257431823920818584434221839430948

1824500550554518249109185946332118404301244

182549054954461825910918604531241841430849

182649054954461826910918615038121842380853

1827450545505018279001018625237111843360657

182847044751491828920818635435121844340759

1829440544495118298901118645732111845350758

1830430743505018308601418655930111846362756

1831420642485218318701318665826161847362953

18324007404753183284016186761241518483531053

18334208425050183384016186855271818493321055

18345007505743183488012186958241818503531052

18355706576337183590010187061191918513351151

1836550555604018369109187154262018521636741

18374806485446183789011187260211918531628948

183843084351491838840161873611820185417191054

18394309435248183983017187462182018552322847

184043012435644184078022187564162018562223846

184143084351491841840161876621523185724221242

184238083847531842820181877591427185825201243

184336063643571843850151878641324185925181246

184434073441591844830171879641324186024171347

18453507364258184584116188065122318612015560

18463627374456184680416188161122618622216558

18473629384753184778418188260122818632214559

184835310384753184873621188363102718642514557

184933210354555184973422188457123218652412559

185035310374852185073621188558113118662511756

1851335113849511851681022188657113118672811754

1852163675259411852266113188761112818682312857

1853162894452481853305317188863102718692511857

1854171910364654185437412218896013281870279956

1855232284553471855444115189059132818712412955

1856222384554461856414315189161132618722710955

1857242212455842185741382118925716271873288955

1858252012455743185844342218935817261874288955

1859251812435446185946332118945619251875298954

18602417134053471860453124189557162618762771056

1861201553540601861503812189654162918772461160

1862221653842581862523711189749213018782861056

1863221453741591863543512189850212918792751057

1864251453843571864573211189946252918802851057

1865241253641591865593011190047242918812551160

1866251173744561866582616190146252918822451159

1867281173946541867612415190247232918832541159

1868231283543571868552718190348252718842141263

1869251183643571869582418190459192118852241262

187027993544561870611919190558202218862141164

1871241293645551871542620190658192318872341162

1872271093645551872602119190760182318882641159

187328893645551873611820190857182518892351062

187428893645551874621820190958152718902351162

187529893746541875641620191062122618912551060

1876277103444561876621523191158132918922361159

1877246113040601877591427191254143218932571157

1878286103344561878641324191353143318942481157

1879275103343571879641324191457123118952881352

1880285103343571880651223191547134018962371358

1881255113040601881611226191658113118972291356

1882245112941591882601228191765102518982081260

1883254113041591883631027191865925189920111356

1884214122537631884571232191964828190021111356

1885224122638621885581131192062830190119101258

188621411253664188657113119216662919021991261

1887234112838621887611128192259635190320101159

188826411304159188863102719235763719042991051

1889235102738621889601328192457737190528101151

189023511283862189059132819256353219062891151

189125510304060189161132619265763719073091249

189223611304159189257162719275563919082881252

189325711324357189358172619285354219092771353

189424811324357189456192519295354219103061252

189528813354852189557162619305054519112761354

189623713304358189654162919315354119122361456

189722913314456189749213019325753819132361457

189820812294060189850212919335653819142451358

1899201113314456189946252919345963519151851562

1900211113314456190047242919355563919162551456

1901191012304258190146252919365573819173151253

190219912283961190247232919375673719183141252

1903201011304159190348252719385473919192841257

190429910384951190459192119394784519202431162

1905281011384951190558202219404994219212821257

190628911374951190658192319414394819222321460

190730912395149190760182319424285019232321461

190828812364852190857182519434474919242331560

190927713344753190958152719444564919252621358

191030612354852191062122619454375019262321561

191127613324654191158132919464564819272131561

191223614294456191254143219474365119282021661

191323614294357191353143319484764719292121760

191424513294258191457123119494255319302021860

191518515233862191547134019504744919312121662

191625514304456191658113119515344319322321659

191731512354753191765102519523955619332321658

19183141236485219186592519534345219342621656

19192841231435719196482819543945719352231659

19202431127386219206283019553556019362431657

19212821231435719216662919563456119372531656

19222321426406019225963519573656019382331757

19232321425396119235763719582946619392031958

19242331525406019245773719593246419402442051

19252621329425819256353219603046619412042253

19262321525396119265763719613046619422042452

19272131524396119275563919622946719432132452

19282021623396119285354219632946719442232451

19292121723406019295354219643146519452032453

19302021822406019305054519652946719462032156

19312121623386219315354119662557019472232648

19322321625415919325753819672856719482632644

19332321626425819335653819682267319492122650

19342621628445619345963519692467019502422548

19352231625415919355563919702197119512922445

19362431626435719365573819711797319521922751

193725316284456193756737197218107219532122651

193823317264357193854739197321106919541922752

193920319234258193947845197424106619551622853

19402442051194049942197519126919561622854

19412042253194143948197617156919571722854

19422042452194242850197716156819581322956

19432132452194344749197815166919591422955

19442232451194445649197920176319601322956

19452032453194543750198020196119611322957

19462032156194645648198117206219621222858

19472232648194743651198216216319631122661

19482632644194847647198313236419641222561

194921226245050194942553198417236019651122661

19502422527524819504744919851623611966922663

195129224315545195153443198614246219671022563

19521922721495119523955619871520641968822565

19532122623495119534345219881719641969922565

19541922721485219543945719891816651970732565

19551622819475319553556019901718651971632467

19561622818465419563456119911523611972632467

19571722819465419573656019921523621973732367

19581322915445619582946619931622621974832267

19591422916455519593246419941621631975642169

19601322915445619603046619951421641976542170

19611322915435719613046619961622621977552070

19621222814425819622946719971622621978452071

19631122613396119632946719981522631979651969

19641222514396119643146519991621631980661969

19651122613396119652946720001622621981561969

1966922611376319662557020011825571982561970

19671022512376319672856720022025551983461872

1968822510356519682267320031625601984571871

1969922511356519692467020041722611985471771

1970732510356519702197120051627571986461773

197163249336719711797320061434521987451675

1972632493367197218107220071238511988451675

19737323103367197321106920081238501989441576

19748322113367197424106620091245431990441576

1975642193169197519126920101342461991451477

1976542193070197617156920111249391992351477

1977552093070197716156820121249391993451477

1978452092971197815166920131446401994451577

19796519113169197920176320141349381995351577

19806619123169198020196120151544411996451477

1981561912316919811720621997451478

1982561911307019821621631998351478

1983461810287219831323641999351379

1984571812297119841723602000351379

1985471711297119851623612001461278

1986461710277319861424622002451279

198745169257519871520642003351279

198845169257519881719642004351280

198944158247619891816652005361280

199044158247619901718652006371179

199145149237719911523612007281179

199235149237719921523622008381080

199345149237719931622622009310978

19944515923771994162163201028981

199535158237719951421642011310880

199645149237719961622622012210880

19974514822781997162262201338782

19983514822781998152263201429782

19993513821791999162163201537784

20003513821792000162262

20014612922782001182557

200245121022792002202555

20033512821792003162560

20043512820802004172261

20053612921802005162757

200637111022792006143452

200728111021792007123851

200838101021802008123850

200931091222782009124543

20102891019812010134246

201131081320802011124939

201221081220802012124939

20133871118822013144640

20142971118822014134938

20153771017842015154441

Jun-20072.47.710.1

Jun-20082.57.710.0

Jun-20092.59.89.1

Jun-20102.47.98.6

Jun-20112.510.07.9

Jun-20122.49.67.6

Jun-20132.58.27.1

Jun-20142.48.86.9

Jun-20152.57.26.8

Fig 7 agmin pr

Agriculture

Mining

Fig 8 TFP

Agriculture

Mining

Manufacturing

Fig 9a Wool and Gold Ex

Agriculture

Mining

Manuf.

Services

Fig 9b Exp %

Fig 6

Ag empltAg GDPMine empltMine GDP

1851203365

186132231816

187134241110

1881322476

1891272565

1901242489

1911242656

1921332534

1931242024

1951162022

1961121112

19718613

19817516

19916315

20015415

201133210

20153327

Fig 9b Exp %

1851185118511851

1861186118611861

1871187118711871

1881188118811881

1891189118911891

1901190119011901

1911191119111911

1921192119211921

1931193119311931

1951195119511951

1961196119611961

1971197119711971

1981198119811981

1991199119911991

2001200120012001

2011201120112011

2015201520152015

Ag emplt

Ag GDP

Mine emplt

Mine GDP

20

33.4564189386

6

5.0338607041

31.5

22.8404507546

18

16.4668628613

33.7

24.2146569951

11

9.8741135265

32.3

24.1810033286

7

5.6344614883

27.4

24.5421067066

6

5.4345780521

24.3

23.573210563

8

9.1840362252

24.4

26.2405401108

4.75

6.1363980788

32.9

25.4362386936

3

3.8242378854

23.9

20.2849593984

2.4

3.5992129188

16.3

19.8912059287

2

1.974669249

12

10.6086520412

1.4

1.5933498514

8.2

5.884430313

1.4

3.1078360432

7

5.2775308466

1.4

6.2731572023

5.6

3.2081152684

1.2

4.8169942361

4.7

3.5035801146

0.9

5.0283177713

3

2.5

1.8

10

3.3

2.5

1.9

7.2

Fig 10

Fig 7: Export price ratio

farm/mine

Jan-1985100

Feb-1985101

Mar-198599

Apr-198596

May-198594

Jun-198594

Jul-198590

Aug-198590

Sep-198591

Oct-198592

Nov-198594

Dec-198596

Jan-198693

Feb-198697

Mar-1986101

Apr-1986103

May-1986103

Jun-198692

Jul-198688

Aug-198685

Sep-198682

Oct-198687

Nov-198692

Dec-198692

Jan-198794

Feb-198796

Mar-198799

Apr-1987102

May-1987103

Jun-1987101

Jul-198798

Aug-1987103

Sep-1987105

Oct-1987106

Nov-1987109

Dec-1987111

Jan-1988117

Feb-1988125

Mar-1988122

Apr-1988122

May-1988119

Jun-1988121

Jul-1988135

Aug-1988128

Sep-1988130

Oct-1988134

Nov-1988129

Dec-1988126

Jan-1989128

Feb-1989130

Mar-1989131

Apr-1989128

May-1989124

Jun-1989127

Jul-1989128

Aug-1989127

Sep-1989130

Oct-1989130

Nov-1989132

Dec-1989133

Jan-1990132

Feb-1990127

Mar-1990125

Apr-1990128

May-1990125

Jun-1990118

Jul-1990110

Aug-1990102

Sep-199098

Oct-199096

Nov-199099

Dec-1990102

Jan-1991103

Feb-199192

Mar-199194

Apr-199195

May-1991102

Jun-1991104

Jul-1991103

Aug-1991102

Sep-1991103

Oct-1991103

Nov-1991106

Dec-1991109

Jan-1992110

Feb-1992113

Mar-1992112

Apr-1992110

May-1992108

Jun-1992107

Jul-1992102

Aug-1992101

Sep-1992103

Oct-1992104

Nov-1992102

Dec-1992102

Jan-1993105

Feb-1993103

Mar-1993102

Apr-1993107

May-1993107

Jun-1993106

Jul-1993106

Aug-1993106

Sep-1993108

Oct-1993109

Nov-1993110

Dec-1993112

Jan-1994113

Feb-1994115

Mar-1994118

Apr-1994119

May-1994119

Jun-1994117

Jul-1994114

Aug-1994118

Sep-1994121

Oct-1994118

Nov-1994120

Dec-1994121

Jan-1995118

Feb-1995122

Mar-1995123

Apr-1995116

May-1995116

Jun-1995116

Jul-1995112

Aug-1995111

Sep-1995111

Oct-1995111

Nov-1995111

Dec-1995110

Jan-1996108

Feb-1996107

Mar-1996106

Apr-1996107

May-1996110

Jun-1996109

Jul-1996107

Aug-1996107

Sep-1996104

Oct-1996103

Nov-1996100

Dec-199698

Jan-199799

Feb-1997102

Mar-1997108

Apr-1997111

May-1997109

Jun-1997108

Jul-1997108

Aug-1997109

Sep-1997109

Oct-1997108

Nov-1997110

Dec-1997110

Jan-1998107

Feb-1998105

Mar-1998107

Apr-1998102

May-1998105

Jun-1998103

Jul-1998103

Aug-1998101

Sep-199897

Oct-199897

Nov-1998101

Dec-1998103

Jan-1999102

Feb-1999101

Mar-1999101

Apr-1999104

May-1999106

Jun-1999108

Jul-1999107

Aug-1999109

Sep-1999105

Oct-199999

Nov-1999100

Dec-199996

Jan-200095

Feb-200095

Mar-200098

Apr-2000103

May-2000104

Jun-2000102

Jul-2000104

Aug-2000105

Sep-2000101

Oct-2000103

Nov-2000104

Dec-2000106

Jan-2001107

Feb-2001107

Mar-2001111

Apr-2001108

May-2001103

Jun-2001103

Jul-2001103

Aug-2001104

Sep-2001105

Oct-2001101

Nov-2001104

Dec-2001108

Jan-2002109

Feb-2002108

Mar-2002107

Apr-2002103

May-2002100

Jun-2002103

Jul-2002108

Aug-2002113

Sep-2002121

Oct-2002126

Nov-2002123

Dec-2002120

Jan-2003115

Feb-2003115

Mar-2003117

Apr-2003118

May-2003110

Jun-2003108

Jul-2003110

Aug-2003113

Sep-2003113

Oct-2003114

Nov-2003117

Dec-2003112

Jan-2004117

Feb-2004106

Mar-2004106

Apr-2004105

May-2004100

Jun-200499

Jul-200491

Aug-200487

Sep-200489

Oct-200484

Nov-200485

Dec-200488

Jan-200586

Feb-200583

Mar-200581

Apr-200570

May-200569

Jun-200565

Jul-200565

Aug-200562

Sep-200564

Oct-200565

Nov-200565

Dec-200564

Jan-200664

Feb-200667

Mar-200665

Apr-200662

May-200661

Jun-200661

Jul-200661

Aug-200659

Sep-200661

Oct-200664

Nov-200666

Dec-200665

Jan-200767

Feb-200765

Mar-200764

Apr-200760

May-200760

Jun-200764

Jul-200767

Aug-200771

Sep-200777

Oct-200777

Nov-200774

Dec-200779

Jan-200878

Feb-200880

Mar-200876

Apr-200863

May-200856

Jun-200854

Jul-200852

Aug-200851

Sep-200846

Oct-200841

Nov-200840

Dec-200843

Jan-200945

Feb-200945

Mar-200949

Apr-200955

May-200964

Jun-200961

Jul-200962

Aug-200960

Sep-200959

Oct-200960

Nov-200960

Dec-200960

Jan-201059

Feb-201058

Mar-201056

Apr-201048

May-201045

Jun-201043

Jul-201044

Aug-201048

Sep-201052

Oct-201055

Nov-201056

Dec-201058

Jan-201160

Feb-201162

Mar-201159

Apr-201155

May-201152

Jun-201149

Jul-201147

Aug-201147

Sep-201147

Oct-201147

Nov-201149

Dec-201149

Jan-201251

Feb-201251

Mar-201252

Apr-201251

May-201249

Jun-201250

Jul-201256

Aug-201257

Sep-201261

Oct-201263

Nov-201261

Dec-201261

Jan-201357

Feb-201356

Mar-201357

Apr-201357

May-201357

Jun-201359

Jul-201358

Aug-201357

Sep-201356

Oct-201359

Nov-201358

Dec-201356

Jan-201455

Feb-201457

Mar-201464

Apr-201465

May-201470

Jun-201471

Jul-201470

Aug-201469

Sep-201470

Oct-201473

Nov-201475

Dec-201478

Jan-201575

Feb-201575

Mar-201576

Apr-201585

May-201582

Jun-201581

Jul-201586

Aug-201584

Sep-201582

Oct-201585

Nov-201590

Dec-201598

Jan-201696

Feb-201691

Mar-201687

Apr-201683

May-201684

Jun-201691

Jul-201689

Aug-201682

Sep-201677

Fig 10

farm/mine

Fig 11 RCA

Fig 8: ag TFP growth contribution

Aust exports (A$ '000)

Fig 9(a)

WoolGoldOtherWoolGoldOther

182748072182740060

1828820101182845055

18291280126182950050

1830700222183024076

18311520779183116084

18321480936183214086

18332080888183319081

183442801157183427073

183588401510183537063

1836108301549183641059

1837108702082183734066

1838111502208183834066

1839128102984183930070

1840160203593184031069

1841164602766184137063

1842172702341184242058

1843186302006184348052

1844174201998184447053

1845253502169184554046

1846270702602184651049

1847317403139184750050

1848309803107184850050

1849312803118184950050

1850402003806185051049

18513958264024311851442927

18524258236141136185215814

185364822551545111853187012

1854671019294102511854195328

185563802386373891855176320

1856717825826106721856165924

1857717023992137671857165331

1858737422983114791858185527

1859857221309132761859204931

1860980020747111931860235027

186194001700084201861274924

1862100001860075401862285121

1863940019200100801863245026

1864122001720085601864324523

1865128001740092201865324423

18661360017200101601866334225

186714600142002560186747458

1868174001960061001868404514

1869144001980099401869334523

1870126001580092201870334225

18711800014200112601871413326

18721900014800112401872423325

18732200018000127401873423424

18742440014400125001874482824

18752420013200125601875482625

18762460010200122801876522226

1877244001340084201877532918

18782480011200115401878522424

1879238006000125601879561430

1880282008800175201880521632

18812640012800158601881482329

18822760010400166201882511930

1883336009800167201883561628

188433000460019820188457835

18852680010000165401885501931

1886252006000122001886581428

188730000360013240188764828

1888316009400168001888551629

1889348009800145001889591725

1890320008800178401890551530

18914040011400202801891561628

1892388008200197401892581230

1893334009600234601893501435

18943000011000232601894471736

18953120011000250801895461637

18963080012800223201896471934

18972680025800229601897353430

18982800027000253401898353432

18993540024000378001899362539

19002620027400383201900293042

190130 40027 000380001901322840

190225 40026 200310001902313238

190328 00034 200292001903313732

190434 20031 400446001904312840

190539 60019 000496001905371846

190645 20029 600578001906342244

190757 80018 800630001907411345

190845 80027 400510001908372241

190951 00015 600590001909411247

191057 6007 40078600191040555

191152 20020 800794001911341452

191252 80022 000772001912351451

191352 6004 40093200191335362

1915191538458

19161916371449

19171917301258

1918191831861

1919191940258

1920192035461

1921192127469

1922192239358

1923192350248

1924192448249

1925192540160

1926192643354

1927192742850

1928192848250

1929192944253

19301930302248

19311931311455

19321932301159

19331933311851

1934193447746

1935193536757

1936193639853

1937193739753

1938193831960

19391939311157

19401940341254

19411941261460

1942194235560

1943194336064

1944194432068

1945194533067

1946194636064

1947194742058

1948194837063

1949194943057

1950195051049

1951195165035

1952195249051

1953195348052

1954195451049

1955195546054

1956195644056

1957195749051

1958195846054

1959195937063

1960196042058

1961196135065

1962196234066

1963196335065

1964196435065

1965196531069

1966196630070

1967196727073

1968196824076

1969196925075

1970197019081

1971197113087

1972197212087

1973197319081

1974197417183

197519759191

1976197610189

1977197713087

1978197810090

1979197910189

198019808191

1981198110090

198219829090

198319839190

198419849290

198519858290

1986198610387

1987198711684

1988198814779

1989198913780

199019909884

199119916886

199219927885

199319935887

199419945986

199519956787

199619965888

199719975887

199819984887

199919993790

200020003592

200120013492

200220023493

200320033592

200420043691

200520052593

200620062594

200720072692

200820082792

200920091891

201020101792

201120111693

201220121693

201320131792

Wool

Gold

Other

Table A14: Value of g agricultural, mining, and all merchandise exports, 1901 to 2013 ($million)shares (%)

yearGoldWoolAll agriculturalAll miningAll merchandiseFarmingMiningOther goods

19012730523895190155405

19022625423883190251463

19033428414591190344506

190431346045110190455405

190519406834108190563326

190630457848133190659365

190719589242140190766304

190827467246124190858375

190916518831126190970255

191075811125144191078175

1911215210540152191169265

191222539945152191265305

191345311329150191375195

191434911525145191479174

19154448919116191576167

191620539342144191664297

1917235713147190191769256

1918134911132157191871209

1919486166242121919781111

19201110123430289192081109

19211168186272531921731116

192279619419248192278814

1923411419622230192385105

1924611219425232192483116

1925212726222318192583711

1926912624631291192685115

19272312023140284192781144

192861322372327419288695

192961232442127719298885

1930547316470245193067285

1931296415540204193176205

19322364150332121932711514

19334373150532371933632214

193416114183292421934751213

19351679160282211935721315

193621105194382671936731413

193724125234443171937741412

19382894219493071938711613

19393085182522711939671914

194040114205653341940612019

19414479188603091941611920

194218116199373341942601129

1943891527246194362335

1944921837285194464333

19459920211303194567430

194613927522385194671623

194725344537608194773621

194829763837802194880516

1949463878621075194982613

19506261042581217195086510

19511266173471194819518947

19526471072951326195281712

19538051407130169019538389

195482113421901622195483126

19557061242821520195582513

19566751205851537195678616

195796715051241954195777617

19587471205931610195875619

19596041215931612195975619

196077213971001860196075520

196166814211271884196175718

196274516601692165196277816

196375816711392158196377616

196496021771782764196479615

196580619612012605196575817

1966785188829326551966711118

1967807205431729541967701120

1968716188543129681968641522

1969796192555232421969591724

19707612164126839981970543214

1971205442184143042441971513415

1972205822515154547461972533314

19732511553443180960861973573014

19743511573644224668331974533314

1975467543972342086201975464014

1976509694437386995891976464013

197734147453414813115721977464212

197848118053595211121581978444313

197980142363575928142341979454214

1980113158788627400188691980473914

198156183386977480190181981463915

198294183583978289196621982434215

19832901883790410058212261983374715

19844002052897811524239681984374814

198560125521119414952301021985375013

1986113731111219816285324921986385012

1987204738621319417399364871987364816

1988310757061534119980419031988374816

1989302159561606521196441871989364816

1990376442981582924932489271990325117

1991413630861457328032525381991285319

1992460537471631428305554271992295119

1993458033341782929762606341993294922

1994552133271955129881644191994304623

1995490740922028530373671011995304525

1996585035002258134452761461996304525

1997687837392435336052809341997304525

1998722639592590540926885381998294625

1999641325792536238919857831999304525

2000516429502772344066976652000284526

20015229387633449570181203072001284725

20025300367835272559531210902002294625

20035719357530999548831159252003274726

20047031277529833534021094182004274924

20056472281131090683621278112005245322

20067371253231078859411540442006205624

200710738306031216992961696202007185923

2008122742798307551113261829252008176122

2009175102319349461586002316152009156816

2010143002302313091348032018052010166718

2011142593047355311748802470222011147115

2012166523124397731892012651092012157114

2013162392869411901731712490882013177014

2014440641941232738712014167113

2015469521720952559672015186714

Farming

Mining

Other goods

Fig 10: Shares of top two goods in exports

Aust: wool+goldNZ: wool+meatCanada: lumber+wheatChile: copper+saltBrazil: coffee+sugarUS: cotton+wheat

1850511318507246

1851732718517068

1852962518527053

1853882218536656

1854722218547152

1855802518557139

1856764618567052

185769481857447058

185873551858487353

185969611859426755

186073751860487474

186176381861606836

186279281862596223

186374241863575631

186477311864575728

186577281865555111

186675341866425391

186792341867485773

186886321868495164

186977311869655454

187075401870576165

187174331871435264

18727548391872456749

18737652441873396753

18747654491874457262

18757558401875487251

18767460441876547250

18778258391877557037

18787655511878617643

18797054371879537141

18806850411880706650

18817148391881756756

18827047351882717444

18837244451883707854

18846551351884877744

18856952321885697146

18867252341886697742

18877254361887726849

18887148341888665246

18897551281889687340

18907053311890726340

18917257301891635741

18927056341892616353

18936554351893677042

18946465341894757241

18956357271895796736

18966661261896726630

18977060281897745631

18986860351898655137

18996154271899725230

19005851261900796127

19016047231901786134

19026245281902805634

19036849321903825234

19046051271904855233

19055451221905754926

19065654371906835327

19075555231907845333

19085953381908795435

19095350401909805432

19104554411910694229

19114852391911746131

19124951401912816228

19133853411913786229

Aust: wool+gold

NZ: wool+meat

Canada: lumber+wheat

0

Chile: copper+salt

'Fig 10'!#REF!

Brazil: coffee+sugar

US: cotton+wheat

RCA

AgricMiningManuf

1960-642.70.80.2

1965-692.61.30.3

1970-742.32.00.3

1975-792.32.00.3

1980-842.42.10.3

1985-892.63.00.3

1990-942.43.30.4

1995-992.73.30.4

2000-042.83.30.4

2005-092.22.70.4

2010-141.62.90.3

20152.13.50.2

Agric

Mining

Manuf

Convergence of average NRAs close to zero hides much variance

Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…

Distant past

Recent past

Future: 10 quick questions

1. Is world nearly free of agric distortions now?

NO, because:

Still very w ide cross-country dispersion of NRAs within HIC and DC country groups

Still very w ide cross-product dispersion of NRAs within each country’s agric sector• including a persistent anti-trade bias

2. How close had world come to being free of goods trade distortions by 2004?

Adverse global welfare & trade effects of trade policies & agric subsidies were reduced by nearly 3/ 5ths between 1980-84 and 2004

• according to global modelling results, see Ch. 12 in Anderson, K. (ed.), Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: A Global Perspective, 1955-2007. Palgrave Macmillan, 2009

3. How much more would agric prod’n be traded if all remaining trade distortions in 2004 were removed?

Global share of agric production exported would’ve been 5 percentage points higher

By 2007, that share was 11%, which is tiny compared with 42% for other primary goods & 31% for manufacturing

4. Would removal of remaining trade distortions reduce global poverty, & income inequality?

Answers: Yes, and yesAbout half of average DC’s national benefit would come from unilateral trade lib’n, the other half from rest-of-world’s liberalization

• Anderson, K., J. Cockburn and W. Martin (eds.), Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty. World Bank, 2010

DC beneficiaries would be mainly poor farmers• Headey, D. (2016), “Food Prices and Poverty”, Policy Research

Working Paper No. 7898, World Bank, November (forthcoming in World Bank Economic Review)

https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=561341&partid=24677&did=321318&eid=1199806

5. Will continued economic growth in Asia starve rest of world?

No. It will boost imports of minerals & energy much more than food

& because of supply responses, int’l prices of primary products by 2030 (relative to manuf. prices) will be similar to today’s

• Anderson, K. and A. Strutt, ‘Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030’, Australian Journal of Agric. and Resource Economics, Oct 2014.

… as happened in 19th century with the first Industrial Revolution, which greatly benefitted countries exporting primary goods

6. To what extent will China, India, Indonesia, etc copy NEAsia’s agricultural protection path as incomes rise? (% RRAs, 1955-2011)

Chart1

8.04809842817.08961401017.1330480182

8.46851366157.1571653217.3014694525

8.88400150257.43129307367.6279435885

9.26796997797.8399616528.020907675

9.40490121158.22470995458.3533971636

9.55112275498.44429828328.6571773352

9.7080755098.8312431679.0109142322

9.86808298689.1990401669.3294000983

9.91392777289.47118048729.5881900841

9.93904781079.69660647339.7513246634

9.99093751489.90212049259.9594956286

Korea

Japan

Taiwan

Japan

Korea

Taiwan

ln GDP per capita

Relative Rate of Assistance, %

42.5315

-32.61223

-22.52902

49.12257

-21.41977

-4.184336

56.15355

-4.803798

-4.521852

53.71568

30.50262

4.219575

83.827

53.8728

1.749005

81.2177

104.7858

12.93268

130.2477

147.666

28.02478

127.6331

195.0259

42.51504

132.424

165.7865

52.2317

132.7016

171.5852

91.240284

109.8533

122.0181

41.6457142857

RRA Chin, Ind, Jap, Kor, Taiw

ccoderraln_gdppc00

Japan1955-59438.0481

1960-64498.4685

1965-69568.8840

1970-74549.2680

1975-79849.4049

1980-84819.5511

1985-891309.7081

1990-941289.8681

1995-991329.9139

2000-041339.9390

2005-111109.9909

Korea1955-59-337.08961

1960-64-217.15717

1965-69-57.43129

1970-74317.83996

1975-79548.22471

1980-841058.44430

1985-891488.83124

1990-941959.19904

1995-991669.47118

2000-041729.69661

2005-111229.90212

Taiwan1955-59-237.133

1960-64-47.301

1965-69-57.628

1970-7448.021

1975-7928.353

1980-84138.657

1985-89289.011

1990-94439.329

1995-99529.588

2000-04919.751

2005-11429.959

ASEAN1970-74-287.4498

1975-79-197.5867

1980-84-147.7176

1985-89-167.7673

1990-94-148.0047

1995-99-88.1863

2000-0448.2571

2005-10-68.9044

RRA Chin, Ind, Jap, Kor, Taiw

Korea

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

Taiwan

Japan

Korea

Taiwan

ln GDP per capita

Relative Rate of Assistance, %

RRA with other ASEAN

China

Korea

India

Japan

Taiwan

Japan

Korea

Taiwan

ln GDP per capita

Relative Rate of Assistance, %

ccoderraln_gdppc00

China1980-84-617.087

1985-89-507.438

1990-94-317.672

1995-99-38.001

2000-0418.348

2005-1058.797

India1965-69-556.6822

1970-74-386.7462

1975-79-446.8204

1980-84-346.9074

1985-89127.0525

1990-94-127.2186

1995-99-137.4299

2000-0487.6222

2005-10-07.9620

Japan1955-59438.0481

1960-64498.4685

1965-69568.8840

1970-74549.2680

1975-79849.4049

1980-84819.5511

1985-891309.7081

1990-941289.8681

1995-991329.9139

2000-041339.9390

2005-111109.9909

Korea1955-59-337.08961

1960-64-217.15717

1965-69-57.43129

1970-74317.83996

1975-79548.22471

1980-841058.44430

1985-891488.83124

1990-941959.19904

1995-991669.47118

2000-041729.69661

2005-111229.90212

Taiwan1955-59-237.133

1960-64-47.301

1965-69-57.628

1970-7448.021

1975-7928.353

1980-84138.657

1985-89289.011

1990-94439.329

1995-99529.588

2000-04919.751

2005-11429.959

ASEAN1970-74-287.4498

1975-79-197.5867

1980-84-147.7176

1985-89-167.7673

1990-94-148.0047

1995-99-88.1863

2000-0448.2571

2005-10-68.9044

China

Korea

India

Japan

Taiwan

ASEAN

China

Korea

India

Japan

Taiwan

ASEAN

China

India

Japan

Korea

Taiwan

ln GDP per capita

Relative Rate of Assistance, %

China

Korea

India

Japan

Taiwan

ASEAN

China

India

Japan

Korea

Taiwan

ln GDP per capita

Relative Rate of Assistance, %

Agric NRAs (%): China & Indonesia already exceed average for EU countriesSources: Huang et al. (2009), Warr (2009) and OECD (2016)

Chart1

1985-891985-891985-89

1995-991995-991995-99

2005-092005-092005-09

2013-152013-152013-15

EU28

China

Indonesia

58.8

-35

-2.3

54.2

1

-7.8

35.2

10

7

23

25

33

China

China199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152013-15

RiceNPC0.670.891.010.910.840.820.810.951.171.081.101.161.010.960.990.600.701.000.911.421.481.491.644.621.54

SSR969698981021021039997969010310598101104105101101101103108110320106.58

WheatNPC0.831.181.230.990.991.000.880.880.830.840.870.920.902.021.501.531.441.391.141.391.361.471.554.391.46

SSR95888993105951039591919099108117108108109104969094105114313104.45

MaizeNPC0.640.991.340.681.001.111.031.261.201.331.411.101.291.361.210.871.191.191.021.161.301.361.574.231.41

SSR1051039410388110106929610298111119106105115108100103112120127125372124.01

SoybeanNPC0.710.780.981.031.010.910.991.041.091.211.340.921.081.191.090.921.301.221.111.261.251.231.604.091.36

SSR98938074757668575048404032373030252321181514124213.85

SugarNPC0.801.061.181.171.311.071.321.901.021.270.981.231.520.881.341.001.981.361.131.261.731.631.935.291.76

SSR90929396959696999711311411511110310610393959598931027326789.08

MilkNPC1.372.642.272.972.402.081.551.811.261.931.501.110.961.100.730.811.521.161.241.511.411.451.654.511.50

SSR636466676366676974861041221341401421351211111039682807723879.46

BeefNPC1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.161.161.161.161.161.161.163.471.16

SSR1011161159898989898989697878563781051081171179996969628895.87

PorkNPC1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.161.161.161.161.161.161.161.163.481.16

SSR97991119797979497979595991029186100100991019999999429397.53

PoultryNPC1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.101.121.121.051.051.051.051.041.041.041.041.041.051.053.141.05

SSR871021051169192888991878684878685858586879090979828594.87

CottonNPC0.970.941.221.211.241.060.740.980.861.512.040.971.891.581.781.162.172.401.111.481.831.201.124.151.38

SSR9384818080889697948584105886771575259788587806723578.27

2013-15

NRASSR

Sugar76891.76

Rice541071.54

Milk50791.50

Wheat461041.46

Maize411241.41

Cotton38781.38

Soybean36141.36

AVERAGE25

Mutton1793

Pork16981.16

Beef16961.16

Poultry5951.05

Eggs0100

Apples0108

China

NRA

Vietnam

Vietnam, 2013-15, %

NRA

Beef62

Sugar59

Maize55

Pepper9

Rice2

AVERAGE1

Eggs1

Pork0

Poultry-11

Coffee-15

Cashew-21

Tea-24

Rubber-49

Vietnam

NRA

Sheet2

NRA

1985-891995-992005-092013-15

EU2859543523

China-3511025

Indonesia-2-7.8733

Sheet2

EU28

China

Indonesia

Indon

Indonesia, NRA %

2013-15

Sugar92

Rice88

Poultry79

Maize60

AVERAGE33

Beef27

Eggs19

Soybean0

Pork0

Bananas0

Cassava0

Cocoa0

Coffee0

Rubber0

Milk-9

Palm oil-12

Indon

2013-15

e.g., how much might agric protection growth limit agric import growth by China?

If China banned imports of rice, wheat, meat and milk to boost food self-sufficiency, its agric imports in 2030 would be 1/3rd lower

falling from 13% to 10% of its total imports, despite larger imports of animal feedstuffs

It would require huge increases in tariffsand breach China’s WTO commitments

• which would trigger disputes with other WTO members, evenif it’s in retaliation to US tariffs on imports from China

Modelling the world economy between 2007 and 2030: China’s food self sufficiency

Source: Anderson and Strutt (Food Policy, Dec. 2014)

Import tariff (%) to ensure self-sufficiency in rice, wheat, meat & milk in

China by 2030

Rice 195%Wheat 115%Beef & sheepmeat 255%Pork & poultry 165%Dairy products 160%

7. Does greater food import dependence mean less national food security?

Clearly not: look at Singapore and HK

If more self-reliance desired, invest in agricultural development abroad

as China, etc. are indeed doing

8. Does greater reliance on multinational food & beverage firms reduce nutrition?

Need not: if worried about junk food and sweet soft drinks, optimal policy responses are domestic (not trade) measures

e.g., labelling of sugar, calorie and salt content, and even taxing such ingredients used by food processors, domestic as well as foreign • Or/and subsidize processors who fortify their foods

9. Wouldn’t being more open to agric trade mean domestic food prices fluctuate more?

Not if all large countries were open, as that would ‘thicken’ international food markets

which would be even more valuable as climate change brings with it more-frequent/more-violent extreme weather events

10. Who will turn the need for more-open agricultural (and other) trade into action?

… especially as the US and EU struggle to get political support to do so?

Perhaps now is Asia’s time to step up?Is China ready & willing to take the lead (just as UK did in mid-19th century and US did post-WWII)?Australia/Cairns Group will for agriculture, in next WTO Ministerial, Buenos Aires, December 2017Does BREXIT also open up new opportunities?

Getting political approval may require domestic policy changes too

Ensure direct domestic policy measures assist losers from future int’l food price fluctuations

far cheaper nationally than using trade measures

e.g., in response to an upward price spike, use generic social protection measures to target just the most needy households, & only when prices spike• Design as a ‘trampoline’ rather than a ‘safety net’• ICT revolution is making possible such conditional

cash e-transfers even in low-income countries

Two new books (December 2016)

What might Brexit do to, e.g., wine trade?

New modeling results suggest Brexit could (in absence of new UK bilateral FTAs to replace current EU28 ones) shrink the value of global wine trade by 2%

and by >3% for EU27, Chile and South Africa• Or >5% for Chile & S. Africa if UK signs an FTA with EU but not with them

Australia would sell more wine to UK, but would be out-competed by EU27 in other markets, hence Australia may export less wine in total because of Brexit

As with all FTAs, devil is in details

Most bilateral FTAs divert/redistribute global trade much more than they expand it

Hence the desirability of multilateral or mega-regional agreements in preference to many overlapping bilaterals

Thanks!All Agric Distortions Research Project working papers, regional and poverty e-books, and global distortions database are freely available at: www.worldbank.org/ agdistortions

Anderson, K. (ed.), Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: A Global Perspective, 1955-2007. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009Anderson, K., J. Cockburn and W. Martin (eds.), Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty. Washington DC: World Bank, 2010 Martin, W. and K. Anderson, ‘Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms’, Amer Jou of Agric Econ 94(2): 422-27, Jan. 2012Anderson, K., M. Ivanic and W. Martin, “Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty”, in The Economics of Food Price Volatility, eds. J.-P. Chavas, D. Hummels and B. Wright, University of Chicago Press for NBER, 2014Anderson, K., Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security,London: Palgrave Macmillan, December 2016Anderson, K., Finishing Global Farm Trade Reform: Implications for Developing Countries, University of Adelaide Press, January 2017Headey, D., “Food Prices and Poverty”, World Bank Economic Review, 2017

Trade-related policy developments�and global food security�Key questionNumber of undernourished people not yet declining in SSAfrica and South Asia (millions)Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?�Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?�Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?�How did previous societies avoid Mathus’ problem?�Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…Distant past: role of int’l tradeIndustrial Revolution boosted agric intercontinental trade & real prices Industrial Revolution boosted agric intercontinental trade & real prices 19th century inter-continental trade and globalizationBoom in primary product prices in 19th century (1796-1913), decline in Britain’s terms of trade (to late 1850s)Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…Real int’l prices of farm products since 1920Real int’l agric prices, 1900-2000�(Source: World Bank, 1977-79 = 100)Real int’l prices of farm products declined in 20th century for 2 reasonsTrade policy impact on real �international prices of farm productsSlide Number 19Key agric policy features, 1960 to mid-1980sFarm policy reforms since mid-1980sUps & downs of agric NRAs for HICsFarm policy reforms since mid-1980sAgric NRAs for DCs (%)Relative Rate of Assistance (RRA) to DC farmers: from negative to slightly positiveAustralia’s RRA: very similar to DCs’ (%)Convergence of average NRAs close to zero hides much varianceOutline: Agric trade’s role in the…1. Is world nearly free of agric distortions now?2. How close had world come to being free of goods trade distortions by 2004?3. How much more would agric prod’n be traded if all remaining trade distortions in 2004 were removed?4. Would removal of remaining trade distortions reduce global poverty, & income inequality?5. Will continued economic growth in Asia starve rest of world? 6. To what extent will China, India, Indonesia, etc copy NEAsia’s agricultural protection path as incomes rise? (% RRAs, 1955-2011)Agric NRAs (%): China & Indonesia already exceed average for EU countries�Sources: Huang et al. (2009), Warr (2009) and OECD (2016)e.g., how much might agric protection �growth limit agric import growth by China?Modelling the world economy between �2007 and 2030: China’s food self sufficiency �Source: Anderson and Strutt (Food Policy, Dec. 2014)7. Does greater food import dependence mean less national food security?8. Does greater reliance on multinational food & beverage firms reduce nutrition?9. Wouldn’t being more open to agric trade mean domestic food prices fluctuate more?10. Who will turn the need for more-open agricultural (and other) trade into action?Getting political approval may require domestic policy changes too�Two new books (December 2016)What might Brexit do to, e.g., wine trade?As with all FTAs, devil is in detailsThanks!