Trade Cycles (Modified)

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    TRADE CYCLES-CONCEPTS- EFFECTS-CONTROL

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.bahamasharvestchurch.com/images/Welcome%2520Beach.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.bahamasharvestchurch.com/aplacetobelong.asp&usg=__aepbuHfqnwCmoVi3_30ykyffyuQ=&h=765&w=1020&sz=183&hl=en&start=123&itbs=1&tbnid=oM7i-z6BCYZ0MM:&tbnh=113&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dwelcome%26start%3D120%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.bahamasharvestchurch.com/images/Welcome%2520Beach.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.bahamasharvestchurch.com/aplacetobelong.asp&usg=__aepbuHfqnwCmoVi3_30ykyffyuQ=&h=765&w=1020&sz=183&hl=en&start=123&itbs=1&tbnid=oM7i-z6BCYZ0MM:&tbnh=113&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dwelcome%26start%3D120%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    Trade Cycles arejust the name of

    Prosperity and

    Adversity;good trade and

    bad trade

    Hebeler

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.wealthstrategiesjournal.com/bios/BudHebeler.JPG&imgrefurl=http://www.wealthstrategiesjournal.com/bios/2008/10/henry-k-hebeler.html&usg=__OYEBrRnnsrs9XYnCxNvFyTgmdaA=&h=950&w=752&sz=25&hl=en&start=3&itbs=1&tbnid=FfySt1hOQ3SdcM:&tbnh=148&tbnw=117&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dhebeler%26hl%3Den%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    Trade Cycles are the

    fluxuations in the

    aggregate economicactivity.

    Any trade cycle starts

    from depression, enters

    into revival(recovery),

    then converts itself into

    boom and finally turns

    into recession.

    W.C.Mitchel

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/org/DURINT/mitchel.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/org/DURINT/mitchel.html&usg=__XKTGGO2Y_HePXqp0ngTTT0gRimg=&h=437&w=343&sz=52&hl=en&start=1&itbs=1&tbnid=fbd5jxejFMAGWM:&tbnh=126&tbnw=99&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dw.c.mitchel%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    PHASES OF A TRADE CYCLE

    A typical cycle is generally divided into four phases: -

    1. Depression or Downswing (Trough)

    2. Revival or Recovery or Lower turning point.

    3.Expansion or Prosperity or the Upswing

    (Boom)4. Recession or Upper-Turning Point

    (Contraction)

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    PHASES OF TRADE CYCLE (1)

    Depression

    Revival

    Boom

    Recession

    Time

    EconomicActivity

    Y

    xO

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    PHASES OF TRADE CYCLE (2)

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.bachbloesemadvies.be/cms/cms/grafisch/tekst/99_208_depression.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.bachfloweradvice.com/bach-flowers-and-depression-general-depression.htm&usg=__zkDhZCyl1hZ5l01adBTaM37ga30=&h=423&w=284&sz=145&hl=en&start=95&itbs=1&tbnid=KzXGxhVEf8qGfM:&tbnh=126&tbnw=85&prev=/images%3Fq%3DDEPRESSION%26start%3D80%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    1.Depression

    or Downswing(Trough)

    Prices

    Consumption

    Income

    Wages

    Employment

    Decreased

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.bachbloesemadvies.be/cms/cms/grafisch/tekst/99_208_depression.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.bachfloweradvice.com/bach-flowers-and-depression-general-depression.htm&usg=__zkDhZCyl1hZ5l01adBTaM37ga30=&h=423&w=284&sz=145&hl=en&start=95&itbs=1&tbnid=KzXGxhVEf8qGfM:&tbnh=126&tbnw=85&prev=/images%3Fq%3DDEPRESSION%26start%3D80%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://jc4jc.files.wordpress.com/2007/05/revival.jpg&imgrefurl=http://zoecarnate.wordpress.com/2008/07/&usg=__JJCzeBV0Z59lYkBaQQuUu6o4pyY=&h=300&w=400&sz=29&hl=en&start=22&itbs=1&tbnid=lbxi38FLwYz2pM:&tbnh=93&tbnw=124&prev=/images%3Fq%3DREVIVAL%26start%3D20%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    2. Revival or

    Recovery or

    (Lower

    turning point)

    Prices

    Consumption

    Income

    Wages

    Employment

    Increased

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://jc4jc.files.wordpress.com/2007/05/revival.jpg&imgrefurl=http://zoecarnate.wordpress.com/2008/07/&usg=__JJCzeBV0Z59lYkBaQQuUu6o4pyY=&h=300&w=400&sz=29&hl=en&start=22&itbs=1&tbnid=lbxi38FLwYz2pM:&tbnh=93&tbnw=124&prev=/images%3Fq%3DREVIVAL%26start%3D20%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=https://bundaberg.qld.gov.au/arts/images/Seth_boom.jpg&imgrefurl=https://bundaberg.qld.gov.au/arts/boom_baby_boom.php&usg=__Pol2FPF_sewyETE7vqjMWDnGoDk=&h=472&w=591&sz=117&hl=en&start=31&itbs=1&tbnid=-ad7i7qCg6e6CM:&tbnh=108&tbnw=135&prev=/images%3Fq%3DBOOM%26start%3D20%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    3. Expansion or

    Prosperity or the

    Upswing (Boom)

    Prices

    Consumption

    Income

    Wages

    Employment

    Increased

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=https://bundaberg.qld.gov.au/arts/images/Seth_boom.jpg&imgrefurl=https://bundaberg.qld.gov.au/arts/boom_baby_boom.php&usg=__Pol2FPF_sewyETE7vqjMWDnGoDk=&h=472&w=591&sz=117&hl=en&start=31&itbs=1&tbnid=-ad7i7qCg6e6CM:&tbnh=108&tbnw=135&prev=/images%3Fq%3DBOOM%26start%3D20%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://english.pravda.ru/img/idb/recession-2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/14-02-2008/104038-economic_recession-0&usg=__XtVX74sv9fssfcD7NhfBZnxa8YU=&h=200&w=200&sz=4&hl=en&start=67&itbs=1&tbnid=Zl-UxCUpyC0enM:&tbnh=104&tbnw=104&prev=/images%3Fq%3DRECESSION%26start%3D60%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    4. Recession or

    Upper-Turning

    Point (Contraction)

    Prices

    Consumption

    Income

    Wages

    Employment

    Decreased

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://english.pravda.ru/img/idb/recession-2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/14-02-2008/104038-economic_recession-0&usg=__XtVX74sv9fssfcD7NhfBZnxa8YU=&h=200&w=200&sz=4&hl=en&start=67&itbs=1&tbnid=Zl-UxCUpyC0enM:&tbnh=104&tbnw=104&prev=/images%3Fq%3DRECESSION%26start%3D60%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    PROPERTIES OF TRADE CYCLE

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    Aggregate

    Economic Activity

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.pensionriskmatters.com/Piles(1).jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.pensionriskmatters.com/articles/derivatives/&usg=__lHUhdtLh-qOY0bB4xAN-Nphh4pk=&h=750&w=1050&sz=190&hl=en&start=214&itbs=1&tbnid=2TnPWI4kMJ2p2M:&tbnh=107&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Daggregate%2Beconomic%2Bactivity%26start%3D200%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.biologie.uni-hamburg.de/b-online/library/cat-removed/ccycle.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.biologie.uni-hamburg.de/b-online/library/cat-removed/u4aos1p3.html&usg=__yrjl1MvbjV1GPuwS3BjZYYkLCoE=&h=327&w=347&sz=5&hl=en&start=56&itbs=1&tbnid=JnzEzvnQFGsOCM:&tbnh=113&tbnw=120&prev=/images%3Fq%3DThe%2BPeriod%2Bof%2BPhases%26start%3D40%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    The Period ofPhases

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.biologie.uni-hamburg.de/b-online/library/cat-removed/ccycle.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.biologie.uni-hamburg.de/b-online/library/cat-removed/u4aos1p3.html&usg=__yrjl1MvbjV1GPuwS3BjZYYkLCoE=&h=327&w=347&sz=5&hl=en&start=56&itbs=1&tbnid=JnzEzvnQFGsOCM:&tbnh=113&tbnw=120&prev=/images%3Fq%3DThe%2BPeriod%2Bof%2BPhases%26start%3D40%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0b/Cl%C3%A9ment_Juglar.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.lyc-eluard-saintjunien.ac-limoges.fr/spip.php%3Farticle110&usg=__Zu81rWQkLzdMb1YvHAfMDcQ2VmY=&h=214&w=160&sz=27&hl=en&start=14&itbs=1&tbnid=4ughlOFnA7ggoM:&tbnh=106&tbnw=79&prev=/images%3Fq%3DJOSEPH%2BKitchin%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    The Short

    Joseph KitchinCycle of 40 months

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0b/Cl%C3%A9ment_Juglar.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.lyc-eluard-saintjunien.ac-limoges.fr/spip.php%3Farticle110&usg=__Zu81rWQkLzdMb1YvHAfMDcQ2VmY=&h=214&w=160&sz=27&hl=en&start=14&itbs=1&tbnid=4ughlOFnA7ggoM:&tbnh=106&tbnw=79&prev=/images%3Fq%3DJOSEPH%2BKitchin%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.chewednews.com/Pictures/Clement_Vallandigham.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.chewednews.com/wbu-archive-2008.html&usg=__qQhvIQzNROOaetl7tOpeQRNdu1M=&h=280&w=180&sz=10&hl=en&start=29&itbs=1&tbnid=f28aasxXNMqcmM:&tbnh=114&tbnw=73&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dclement%2Bjuggler%26start%3D20%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    The Long

    Clement JugglerCycle of 9 years

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.chewednews.com/Pictures/Clement_Vallandigham.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.chewednews.com/wbu-archive-2008.html&usg=__qQhvIQzNROOaetl7tOpeQRNdu1M=&h=280&w=180&sz=10&hl=en&start=29&itbs=1&tbnid=f28aasxXNMqcmM:&tbnh=114&tbnw=73&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dclement%2Bjuggler%26start%3D20%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://faculty.washington.edu/~krumme/graphs/ndk.gif&imgrefurl=http://faculty.washington.edu/~krumme/207/development/longwaves.html&usg=__KNfodoqBk-iNMOBs2g_D2fuw7Bw=&h=440&w=288&sz=116&hl=en&start=1&itbs=1&tbnid=lhaxDdhbYaqf6M:&tbnh=127&tbnw=83&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dn.d.kondratieff%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    The Very Long

    Kondratieff Cycle

    of 50 years

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://faculty.washington.edu/~krumme/graphs/ndk.gif&imgrefurl=http://faculty.washington.edu/~krumme/207/development/longwaves.html&usg=__KNfodoqBk-iNMOBs2g_D2fuw7Bw=&h=440&w=288&sz=116&hl=en&start=1&itbs=1&tbnid=lhaxDdhbYaqf6M:&tbnh=127&tbnw=83&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dn.d.kondratieff%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.eilatgordinlevitan.com/pinsk/pinsk_pix/stories/041408_23_b.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.eilatgordinlevitan.com/pinsk/pinsk_pages/pinsk_stories_ss_kuznets.html&usg=__SxBqxtRyyU0kNHoJtDdlVfByVd0=&h=571&w=600&sz=190&hl=en&start=5&itbs=1&tbnid=KrQM1ZtaTxjzIM:&tbnh=128&tbnw=135&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dsimon%2Bkuznets%26hl%3Den%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    Simon Kuznets

    Cycle of 16-22years or 7-11

    years

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.eilatgordinlevitan.com/pinsk/pinsk_pix/stories/041408_23_b.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.eilatgordinlevitan.com/pinsk/pinsk_pages/pinsk_stories_ss_kuznets.html&usg=__SxBqxtRyyU0kNHoJtDdlVfByVd0=&h=571&w=600&sz=190&hl=en&start=5&itbs=1&tbnid=KrQM1ZtaTxjzIM:&tbnh=128&tbnw=135&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dsimon%2Bkuznets%26hl%3Den%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://dcmp.bc.edu/images/cover_flower.jpg&imgrefurl=http://dcmp.bc.edu/page.php%3Fname%3Dgallery&usg=__1EQZRoo5LWMcAz-XTM3ZeVgsC9M=&h=1624&w=1208&sz=260&hl=en&start=225&itbs=1&tbnid=saieQls9RagwfM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=112&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dthe%2Bnature%2Bof%2BDiffusion%2Beffects%26start%3D220%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    The Nature of

    Diffusion of Effect

    (wages, prices, rents,

    profits, consumption,

    savings and investment)

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://dcmp.bc.edu/images/cover_flower.jpg&imgrefurl=http://dcmp.bc.edu/page.php%3Fname%3Dgallery&usg=__1EQZRoo5LWMcAz-XTM3ZeVgsC9M=&h=1624&w=1208&sz=260&hl=en&start=225&itbs=1&tbnid=saieQls9RagwfM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=112&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dthe%2Bnature%2Bof%2BDiffusion%2Beffects%26start%3D220%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    International

    in Nature

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    HOW CAN TRADE CYCLE BE REDUCED?

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    FISCAL POLICY

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    MONETARY POLICY

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.hispecltd.co.uk/Images/stores_08.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.hispecltd.co.uk/introduction.htm&usg=__7HERv3ACJh5LX2JGHWauX8Mi6VU=&h=269&w=400&sz=216&hl=en&start=14&itbs=1&tbnid=qqj43A8cKmt2AM:&tbnh=83&tbnw=124&prev=/images%3Fq%3DBUFFER%2BSTOCK%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    BUFFER STOCKSCHEMES

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://www.hispecltd.co.uk/Images/stores_08.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.hispecltd.co.uk/introduction.htm&usg=__7HERv3ACJh5LX2JGHWauX8Mi6VU=&h=269&w=400&sz=216&hl=en&start=14&itbs=1&tbnid=qqj43A8cKmt2AM:&tbnh=83&tbnw=124&prev=/images%3Fq%3DBUFFER%2BSTOCK%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2612/3807519572_df735d26dd.jpg&imgrefurl=http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2009_09_01_archive.html&usg=___uCqAa6yDtXIPzxsdn5SOnc9GOo=&h=350&w=500&sz=112&hl=en&start=15&itbs=1&tbnid=uW1517LEtbrGxM:&tbnh=91&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3DSTATE%2BCONTROL%2BOF%2BINVESTMENT%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    STATE CONTROL OFPRIVATE

    INVESTMENT

    http://images.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2612/3807519572_df735d26dd.jpg&imgrefurl=http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2009_09_01_archive.html&usg=___uCqAa6yDtXIPzxsdn5SOnc9GOo=&h=350&w=500&sz=112&hl=en&start=15&itbs=1&tbnid=uW1517LEtbrGxM:&tbnh=91&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3DSTATE%2BCONTROL%2BOF%2BINVESTMENT%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1
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    I.FISCAL MEASURES

    During Inflation/Boom

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    INCREASE INTAXES

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    DECREASE IN

    PUBLIC

    EXPENDITURE

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    INCREASE INPUBLIC DEBT

    C td

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    During Depression

    Decrease in Taxes

    Increase in Public Expenditures, and

    Decrease in Public Debt

    Contd

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    II. MONETARY MEASURES

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    BANK RATEPOLICY

    OPEN MARKET SYSTEM

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    OPEN MARKET SYSTEMSale/Purchase of Bonds and Securities in the market

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    CHANGES IN

    RESERVE

    RATIO

    Cash Reserve Ratio

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    III. BUFFER STOCK

    SCHEMES

    Official Purchase andsale of food grainsaccording to themarket fluxuations

    IV STATE CONTROL OF

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    IV. STATE CONTROL OF

    PRIVATE INVESTMENT

    J.M.KEYNES VIEW MAY BE ADOPTABLE

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    WHY DID TRADE CYCLE APPEAR IN THE

    ECONOMY?

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    THEORIES OF TRADE CYCLES

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    SUNSPOTTHEORY

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    PSYCHOLOGICALTHEORY

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    THEORY OF UNDERCONSUMPTION

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    HAWTREY

    THEORY OFTRADE CYCLE

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    JOSEPH

    SCHUMPETERS

    THEORY OF

    TRADE CYCLE

    Friday October 11 2013

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    Friday, October 11, 2013

    D.B.Naidu92480-05303

    [email protected]

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