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Towards a Pan-Canadian 2.5-km High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System. Jason Milbrandt, Stéphane Bélair, Manon Faucher, Anna Glazer Environment Canada (RPN and CMC). SAAWSO Project Workshop April 22-24, 2012. Modeling Systems and Applications at CMC / RPN. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Towards a Pan-Canadian 2.5-km
High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System
Jason Milbrandt, Stéphane Bélair, Manon Faucher, Anna Glazer
Environment Canada(RPN and CMC)
SAAWSO Project WorkshopApril 22-24, 2012
Modeling Systems and Applications at CMC/RPN
Global Uniform Global Variable
Limited Area (LAM)
Environment Canada's NWP ModelGEM (Global Environmental Multiscale)
• non-hydrostatic
• fully compressible
• semi-implicit
• semi-Lagrangian
• one-way self-nesting
• staggered vertical grid (Charney-Phillips)
Côté et al. (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev.
Yin-Yang
Various grid configurations:
LAM = Limited Area Model
LAM ≠ High Resolution Model
…
t = 0 t = final
fields from driving model
Initial Conditions /Boundary Conditions Boundary Conditions
• 4 “full-time” grids
• 1 “seasonal” gridz = 2.5 km
• 58 levels (staggered)
• one 24-h daily run (per domain)
• downscaled from RDPS-10 forecast
• Li-Barker radiation
• Milbrandt-Yau 2-moment microphysics
Environment Canada’s HRDPS(High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System)
2 x 42-h integrations
• 1997: Project initiated by CMC/RPN (HiMAP)
• Since 1999: Collaboration with PNR
• Summer 2001: ELBOW project (MRB and Ontario region)
• Since 2002: Collaboration with PYR
• Since 2004: Collaboration Quebec region
Other related experimental systems:• 2001: MAP
• 2007: MAP-DPHASE
• 2008-09: UNSTABLE
• 2008-10: Lancaster Sound
• 2010: Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics/Paralympics
• 2014: Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics/Paralympics
• 2015: Pan-American Games
Environment Canada’s HRDPS(High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System)
0600 1812 0600 1812 0018
Experimental EAST, MARITIME, ARCTIC Runs• 1 LAM-2.5km runs per day, 24-h• Nested from 6-h forecasts of 00z-REG-10
RDPS-10
HRDPS
LAM-10
LAM-2.5
0600 1812 0600 1812 0018
HRDPSRUN 1
RDPS-10
LAM-10
LAM-2.5
HRDPSRUN 2
RDPS-10
LAM-10
LAM-2.5
Operational WEST Runs• 2 LAM-2.5km runs per day, 42-h• Nested from 6-h forecasts of 00z- and 12z-REG-10 runs
Current HRDPS
Future HRDPS
W
E
M
AL
LAM2.5 windows: West (W), East (E), Maritimes (M), Lancaster (L), Arctic (A)
N1 (ni x nj = 2904 x 1674)
N2 (ni x nj = 2524 x 1334)
Current: (near future)• multi-grid (2.5 km)
- 2 x 42-h (west domain)- 1 x 24-h (other domains)
• downscaled from RDPS• 58 levels• IC surface fields from ISBA
HRDPS Configuration
Future:• single grid (2.5 km)
- 4 x 48-h• 70 - 80 levels• IC surface fields from CaLDAS• upgraded microphysics• upper-air assimilation cycle
• LAM 250-m grids (e.g. over cities)Next generation HRDPS
HRDPS Future Plans
1. Operational WEST-2.5 domain- operational status of WEST; 2 x 42-h- upgrade of GEM version
2. National-2.5 – STAGE 1- single, national grid- 2 x 48-h- increased vertical resolution- high-resolution surface fields (CaLDAS)- upgrade to microphysics- reduced spin-up (recycling PHY bus) 2014
3. National-2.5 – STAGE 2- 4 x 48-h- upper-air data assimilation cycle (En-Var*) 2016
* Buehner et al. (2010a,b)
Advantages of a cloud-scale deterministic NWP system:
1. Topographic forcing is better resolved
- orography, vegetation, land-water boundaries
2. Better physics
- high-res surface data assimilation
- no need for a CPS
- can use a detailed microphysics scheme
Improved ability to forecasthigh-impact weather
The CANADIAN LAND DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM The CANADIAN LAND DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM (CaLDAS*)(CaLDAS*)
ISBALAND-SURFACE
MODEL
OBS
ASSIMILATION
xb
y (with ensemble Kalman filter
approach)
xa = xb+ K { y – H(xb) }
K = BHT ( HBHT+R)-1
with
ININ OUTOUT
Ancillary land surface data
Atmospheric forcing
Observations
Land surface initial conditions
for NWP and hydro systems
Land surface conditions for atmospheric assimilation
systems
Current state of land surface
conditions for other
applications (agriculture, drought, ...
Screen-level (T, Td)Surface stations snow depthL-band passive (SMOS,SMAP)MW passive (AMSR-E)Multispectral (MODIS)Combined products (GlobSnow)
T, q, U, V, Pr, SW, LW
Orography, vegetation, soils, water fraction, ...
*Carrera et al. (2012)(to be submitted to J. Hydromet)
For details, see Stéphane Bélair
INPUT:w, T, p, qv
OUTPUT:• Latent heating• Hydrometeors (cloud, rain, ice,…) qc, qr, qi, ...
qc, qr, qi, ...
MOISTPROCESSES
Single cloudy grid element – interaction with NWP model:
For NWP models at the “convective scale” (x < 4 km), no longer need a CPS – clouds are considered to be resolved
cloud / precipitation processes are treated by a grid-scale condensation scheme
Cloud Microphysical Processes
Dxx
xxeDNDN 0)(
For each category x = c, r, i, s, g, h:
Six hydrometeor categories:
2 liquid: cloud, rain
4 frozen: ice, snow, graupel, hail
Prognostic variables
qx, Nx (12)
RAIN
GRAUPEL HAIL
SEDIMENTATIONSEDIMENTATION
VAPOR
ICECLOUDV
Dvr
VD
vs
NU
vi,
VD
vi
CLci, MLic, FZciCLcs
CNig
CN
is,
CL i
s
CLri
CL i
h
CL s
h
CLir-g
CLsr-h
CLir-g
CLsr-g
CLch
CNsg
CNgh
ML g
r
CL c
g
VD
vg
CLir
VD
vhself-collection
self-collection
CLrh,MLhr,SHhr
NU vc, VD vc
CN
cr,
CL c
r
CLsr CLrs
MLsr, CLsr SNOW
2-Moment Microphysics Scheme*
* Milbrandt and Yau (2005a,b)
10 – 30 microns(maritime CCN)
0.1 – 1 mm
10 – 50 microns0.1 – 4 mm
0.5 – 2 mm < 0.5 mm
RAIN
ICE(pristine crystal)
SNOW(large crystals / aggregates)
GRAUPEL HAIL(ice pellets)
CLOUD(CLW)
DRIZZLE
STRATIFORM RAIN
RIME-SPLINTERING
Mean-Mass Diameters, Dmx
RN1 – Liquid DrizzleRN2 – Liquid RainFR1 – Freezing DrizzleFR2 – Freezing RainSN1 – Ice CrystalsSN2 – SnowSN3 – Graupel (snow pellets)PE1 – Ice Pellets (re-frozen rain)PE2 – Hail (total)PE2L – Large Hail
Precipitation types from microphysics :
VIS1 (liquid fog)
VIS2 (rain)
VIS3 (snow)
3D fields for VISIBILITY due to fog, rain, and snow(parameterizations based on observations taken during FRAM)
km
km
km
VIS1 = f (qc,Nc)
VIS2 = f (RRN2)
VIS3 = f (RSN2)
*Gultepe and Milbrandt (2007)
VIS1 (liquid fog)
VIS2 (rain)
VIS3 (snow)
km
km
km
VISIBILITY due to the combined effects of
liquid FOG, RAIN, and SNOW:
1)ln( extVIS
1
3
1
2
1
1
1
VISVISVISVIS
3D fields for VISIBILITY due to fog, rain, and snow(parameterizations based on observations taken during FRAM)
VIS1 (liquid fog)
VIS2 (rain)
VIS3 (snow)
VIS (fog + rain + snow) km
km
km
km
km
3D fields for VISIBILITY due to fog, rain, and snow(parameterizations based on observations taken during FRAM)
0.995
Vis
ibili
ty (
m)
Real-Time Verification Examples(from SNOW-V10 site)
Prototype National-2.5: RUN 1
00:00
01:00
0600 1812 0600 1812 0018
Experimental EAST, MARITIME, ARCTIC Runs• 1 LAM-2.5km runs per day, 24-h• Nested from 6-h forecasts of 00z-REG-15
RDPS-15
HRDPS
LAM-15
LAM-2.5
0600 1812 0600 1812 0018
Recycling of Hydrometeor Fields
RDPS-10
Consecutive 6-h runs (LAM-2.5)
FLOW fields
CLOUD fields
ICs from RDPS analysis
ICs from 6-h forecast of previous 2.5-km run (cycle)
0600 1812 0600 1812 0018
Recycling of Hydrometeor Fields
RDPS-10
HRDPS
Consecutive 6-h runs (LAM-2.5)
FLOW fields
CLOUD fields
ICs from RDPS analysis
ICs from 6-h forecast of previous 2.5-km run (cycle)
00:00
Recycling of Hydrometeor Fields
CURRENT SET-UP of Deterministic NWP System
10 km
2.5 km
1 km
250 m
m
Configuration for FROST-2014
DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)
Near-surface winds:2.5 km
DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)
Near-surface winds:1 km
DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)
Near-surface winds:250 m
DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)
250 m
24-h Accumulated SNOW
2.5 km1 km250 m
mm
DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)
24-h SNOW 24-h RAIN
2.5 km1 km250 m
DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow)
Differences are not due to precipitation phase; 2.5-km run appears to underestimate the orographic enhancement
THANK YOUTHANK YOU