Toward an Integrated Plan for Sustainability:

A Vision Statement and Procedure for Future Earth in Asia

Prof Thomas ReuterRAB Future Earth–Asia

Contact: treuter@unimelb.edu.au

Overview

1. The Need for an Integrated Process of Transformation to Sustainability

2. The Role of Future Earth: Leveraging the Knowledge Sector’s Relative Independence

3. Science and Society in the Anthropocene

4. Prerequisites for Knowledge Sharing and Cooperative Action

5. Creating a Future Earth Open Leaders’ Forum to Address Collective Action Problems

6. Restoring Mutual Confidence: Three Guarantees for All Parties

Human Use Exceeds the Renewal Rate of ‘Renewable Natural Resources’

Biosphere Destruction

Peaking of Non-renewable Resource Extraction (Richard Heinberg "peak

everything”)

Growing World Population

Growing Per Capita Consumption

The Need for an Integrated Process

of Transformation to Sustainabi l ity1.

deforestation, habitat and biodiversity loss, water and food availability, and countless other, less recognized ‘ecosystem service’ crises (such as top soil loss)

global warming, ocean acidification, sea level rise (carbon) and effects of other pollution (nitrate, plastic, radioactivity, lead, Nano materials etc) or mechanical destruction (cities, roads, industrial farms)

In Asia; ageing US, EU peaking

DE MAND END OF TRANSFORMAT ION

Material Complexityo interconnected nature of the local material challenges:

cf. ICSU draft paper on the need to consider SDG interactions

o local specificity of responses to diverse material challenges (plural human ecologies)

Social Complexityo Perceptions of shared and diverging interests based on diverse

identities and associated spheres of cooperation and conflict (complex social, cultural, political and historical reality)

Globalization: Links Complexity at Social and Material Levelso transnational nature of contemporary social relations

(cf. N. Elias work on interdependence and the history of civilization)

o transnational nature of environmental issues in the anthropocene

1.

RESPONSE E ND OF TRANSFORMAT ION : COMPLE X IT Y

The Need for an Integrated Process

of Transformation to Sustainabi l ity

Example: Land-water-food nexus:a. Degradation and loss of soi l around the world

b. World Water Security Cris is

c. World Food Risk Levels 2015Sourc

e: O

pen P

age M

aps,

in U

N-W

RS 2

015

What does “integrated” mean?

ACTION AND KNOWLEDGE IN COMPLEX SITUATIONS

Integration Between Scaleso Local action is necessary but not sufficient: must be part of a

broader cooperative efforts at national, regional and global levels

o Not possible without a common politics: based on recognition of shared interests and diversity or “sovereign cooperation”

Integration Between Sectorso Single sector actions at any scale can obstruct one another

o No sector has sufficient knowledge or capacity for action to effect a systemic transformation to sustainability on its own

o Science sector itself needs to integrate within and between the natural and social sciences, and with engineering, art and design, following the same principle of sovereign cooperation with regard to epistemology and philosophy of life

Business as Usual Cop OUT

Why can’t we scientists keep doing what we are used to doing?

How can we do more, in a world ruled by money and coercion not reason?

Why not shun those in power and retire to a barrel?

Why now? Why us? Source: andreaskluth.org

2.The Role of Future Earth: Leveraging the

Knowledge Sector’s Relative Independence

DE MAND END

• Unmet demand: No integrated transformation in sight• World has run out of time

RESPONSE E ND

• Political apathy or outright denial• Political bickering between parties over vested interests• Rising global political tensions and isolationism

Who else can break the gridlock, if science hides in its barrel?

2.The Role of Future Earth: Leveraging the

Knowledge Sector’s Relative Independence

Polit icians Discussing Global Warming

Follow the leaders, Berlin, Germany, April 2011Credit” Isaac Cordal

Urgent need to deliver rational and practicable proposals

+ Impossibility of delivering economically and politically acceptable and actionable proposals without cross-sector engagement

= Co-Design and Co-Ownership are essential prerequisites for an integrated transition plan

Why does the scientific community need to serve as initiator and arbitrator of an all-encompassing cross-sector collaboration?

• Despite attempts to politicise and monetise it, science is still a relatively independent voice of reason and recognized as such

• Scientists are socialised to uphold an ethos of responsibility to serve humanity by speaking truth to power

2.The Role of Future Earth: Leveraging the

Knowledge Sector’s Relative Independence

OBSTACLES to sc ience lead ing a susta inabi l i ty transformat ion

• Internal divisions and contempt across disciplinary silos, reinforced by the current reward system

• Arrogance toward non-scientists (and post-truth response from public against knowledge elites)

• Scientism / crude materialism / crude Darwinism / naïve realism

CONCLUS ION

Science will change its approach or fail

3.Science and Society

in the Anthropocene

We are not the on ly ones ponder ing the need for a new sc ience…

Sourc

e: W

orld

Acad

em

y of

Art

and

Scie

nce

SOLUT ION

• Undoing the historical fact-value division in science, especially for the planning of a sustainable future

• Understanding the nature of imagination

• Understanding that inclusive deliberation and free cooperation and are not luxuries but essential for human survival in the anthropocene

• Cultivating humility, courage, empathy, trust, openness, respect – within a forum of free and open deliberation

4.Prerequisites for Knowledge Sharing

and Cooperative Action

A solution for the world’s endemic Collective Action Problem. How?

• A political problem cannot be left to markets forces

• Cross-sector deliberation must happen at multiple scales

• Why not start in Asia?

5.Creating a Future Earth

Open Leaders’ Forum

FEATURES of an FE Asia Open Leaders Forum:

• A council for collective imagination, design and action

• Excellent representation of all sectors (co-design)

• Strong commitment to diversity, participatory deliberation and ‘sovereign cooperation’ principles

• Asian characteristics (this scale), but may be transferrable

OUTCOME

• Co-development of fully integrated, actionable and acceptable pathways to a sustainable society and human security

5.Creating a Future Earth

Open Leaders’ Forum

a.) A Guarantee of Reason

The transition plan must be guaranteed to be the best plan available, based on an act of pooling our collective scientific, technological, economic, social, political, cultural and local knowledge. The key is open, factual debate and wide participation.

b.) A Guarantee of Security

The transition plan must guarantee that no person, community, country or region is made physically unsafe of denied access to essential resources such as food. Such an insurance model of security is the best way to meet uncertainty.

c.) A Guarantee of Universal Justice

It may be impossible to achieve equality, as there need to be incentives in every merit based system, but both extreme poverty and criminal self-enrichment must be addressed if the solutions proposed are to gain universal acceptance and support.

6. Three Guarantees for participants

Why adopt a new approach in science?

The Process Starts Right Here

D ISCUSS ION

Your concerns in view of the procedure outline

Your experiences with engagement

Your ideas

QUE ST IONS

What are our resources and cross-sector connections?

What is the first step?