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Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for Rural Health Care Presented to the Northwest Regional Rural Health Conference January Meeting Spokane, Washington March 27, 2003 Charles W. Fluharty, Director Rural Policy Research Institute http://www.rupri.org

Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

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Page 1: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Toward a Community Based Rural Policy:

Implications for Rural Health Care

Presented to theNorthwest Regional Rural Health Conference

January MeetingSpokane, Washington

March 27, 2003

Charles W. Fluharty, DirectorRural Policy Research Institute

http://www.rupri.org

Page 2: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Five Considerations:I. The case for a rural policy “tipping point”

• The Farm Bill process and outcome• A growing understanding of the true rural economy• The new Census and its public policy implications• Rethinking rural governance

II. Building a constituency for a community-based rural policy:

• New political realities• The policy context• Alternatives for consideration

III. The rural / urban dialecticIV. Linking policy and community practice: “Bring in the

bridge builders!”V. Implications for rural health care

Page 3: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

I. The case for a rural policy “tipping point”

• The Farm Bill process and outcome• A growing understanding of the true rural

economy• The new Census and its public policy

implications• Rethinking rural governance

Page 4: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

1. “Rural” is much more than agriculture; and the future success of our nation’s family farms are critically linked to the economies of rural communities.

• Only 6.3% of rural Americans live on farms.• Farming accounts for only 7.6% of rural

employment. • 90% of rural workers have non-farm jobs.• In 1999, 90% of all farm operator’s household

income came from off-farm sources.

Page 5: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

• Only 0.39% of the US population is engaged in farming as a primary occupation; and

• Only 1.78% of the US rural population is engaged in farming as a primary occupation.

But . . . • In ag dependent counties, or rural areas where

agriculture is the dominant sector, as in most of the Great Plains, we are literally in “crisis”!

Page 6: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking
Page 7: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

17.7%11.6%$23,371$35,572$201,20658,403Very Large Family Farms

40.4%28.0%$24,011$34,598$85,68577,314Large Family Farms

49.9%36.0%$19,194$26,621$53,322175,370Farming-occupation high sales

100.3%56.3%$22,379$39,892$39,764480,441Farming-occupation low sales

104.8%95.5%$79,982$87,796$83,788931,561Residential / lifestyle

103.3%27.7%$11,254$41,991$40,643297,566Retirement

137.5%61.5%$5,862$13,114$9,534126,920Limited Resource

Small Family Farms

Percent of HH

income from

total off-farm

sources

Percent of HH

income from

earnedoff-farm sources

Avg. earnedoff-farm income

Avg. Off-

Farm Income

Avg. HH Income

Number of

HouseholdsERS Farm Typology

Source: ERS, February 2001

Page 8: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Farm / Farm Policy Structure:• 2 million farms – 2% produce 50% of food / fiber

• 36% of farms participate in support programs (30% of total farm acreage)

• Between 1996 and 1998:

• $22.9 billion in farm subsidies

• 144,000 participants received 61% of money

• (7.2% of America’s farmers received $13.97 billion)

• The more farm dependant an area is, the more its

economic growth lags the rest of America.

Page 9: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

2. The rural economy has strengthened and is slowly growing, but remains fragile and uneven:• Over 2 million more rural Americans are

employed today than at the start of the last decade.

• Until this downturn, rural unemployment had continued to decline -- lowest level since 1990 recession.

• Rural earnings, after a decade of decline, were rising at rates similar to urban, as was per capita income.

Page 10: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

• In 1996, 23% of rural workers in the service sector• Rural workers are nearly twice as likely to earn the

minimum wage (12% - rural, 7%- urban)• Rural workers remain more likely to be underemployed

and are less likely to improve their employment circumstances over time. (40% less likely to move out of low wage jobs than central city residents)

• In 1999, 27% of rural workers over age 25 received wages that if earned full time, full year, would not lift a family of four above the official poverty line (5 million workers).

But . . .Rural employment is still dominated by low wage industries:

Page 11: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Distribution of Nonmetro Employment, 1969

Construction5%

Manufacturing21%

TCPU4%

Trade17%

FIRE4%

Services15%

Extractive17%Government

17%

Page 12: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Distribution of Nonmetro Employment, 1979

Construction5%

Manufacturing20%

TCPU4%Trade

18%

FIRE5%

Services17%

Extractive15%Government

16%

Page 13: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Distribution of Nonmetro Employment, 1989

Construction5%

Manufacturing18%

TCPU4%

Trade19%

FIRE5%

Services20%

Extractive12%Government

17%

Page 14: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Distribution of Nonmetro Employment, 1999

Manufacturing15%

TCPU4%

Trade20%

FIRE5%

Services24%

Construction6%

Extractive10%Government

16%

Page 15: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Between 1990-1996 there was a gain of 2,756,000 jobs in rural America – an increase of 11.3%.

However, between 1990-1996 there was only anegligible change in non-metropolitan job earnings – remaining more or less around $22,493 per year per job. (1996)

In fact, the rural/urban earnings gap persisted and widened in the 1990s (from 73.8 to 70 percent).

Page 16: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Metro and Nonmetro Employment Change:Percent Change from Previous Year

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Metro Nonmetro

Page 17: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Therefore:

• Rural incomes remain lower than urban (1997 median: $30K+ - Rural, 39K+ - Urban)

• Rural poor families are more likely to be employed and still poor. (In 1998, 2/3 of poor families had at least one member working at some time during the year; 16% had two or more members working; 29% had one or more full time, full year workers -- a 9% rise since 1996).

Page 18: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Per Capita Income in the U.S. andin Metro and Nonmetro Areas

(all figures adjusted to 2000 dollars)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

U.S.

Metro

Nonmetro

Page 19: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Farm Income as a Percent of Total Incomein Nonmetro Areas

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

Page 20: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Per Capita Income Gap in 1990:Nonmetro Per Capita Income as a Percent of Metro

78.1

70.480.0

72.781.0

77.3

70.7

86.8

69.2 83.6

85.0

79.2 71.5

73.4

87.9

72.6

71.7

79.6

66.2

87.0

84.4

93.0

73.7

65.7

79.0

88.9

82.6

78.5

76.7

81.2

76.7

83.074.6

76.2

86.6 66.1

76.4

78.5

78.4

85.1

NH: 90.5

VT: 88.1MA: 86.5

RI: 109.1

CT: 83.8

NJ: 0.0 DC: 0.0

DE: 76.4 MD: 74.2

Alaska: 77.2%Over 90 percent

Hawaii: 76.4% 80 to 90 percent75 to 80 percentLess than 75 percent

Note: New Jersey and Washington, D.C. do not have nonmetropolitan areas

Page 21: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Per Capita Income Gap in 2000:Nonmetro Per Capita Income as a Percent of Metro

77.6

67.679.0

67.1

73.9

75.6

68.4

78.6

67.5 83.3

84.7

73.1 71.0

75.9

84.7

69.9

68.5

76.6

67.5

84.6

74.3

92.4

69.8

63.6

77.1

86.5

82.9

78.7

74.2

76.1

74.9

85.472.1

70.6

80.5 62.6

68.5

79.0

76.4

88.1

NH: 83.2

VT: 86.1MA: 79.6

RI: 117.2

CT: 76.7

NJ: 0.0 DC: 0.0

DE: 66.8 MD: 76.1

Alaska: 74.0%Over 90 percent

Hawaii: 74.6% 80 to 90 percent75 to 80 percentLess than 75 percent

Note: New Jersey and Washington, D.C. do not have nonmetropolitan areas

Page 22: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Change in the Per Capita Income Gap1990 to 2000

Alaska

HawaiiGap Decreased

Gap Increased

Note: New Jersey and Washington, D.C. do not have nonmetropolitan areas

Page 23: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

3. While the economy of rural America, in general, has improved, persistent pockets of intractable rural poverty remain:• In general, poverty rates are higher in rural than urban areas.

(15.7% rural and 12.6% urban, 1997)• While the rural poverty rate declined by 1 ½% between 1997

and 1998 – still 14.3% [urban 12.3%]. • 7.5 million rural residents live in poverty; an additional 11%

live close to poverty (between 100-150% of poverty) [urban 8%].

• Rural poverty is working poverty -- 2/3 of rural poor live in a family with at least one member working.

• Child poverty is higher in rural areas. (22.7% rural and 19.2% urban, 1997)

• Over half of rural children in female-headed households are in poverty. (3.2 million rural children, 1996.)

Page 24: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Nonmetro Persistent Poverty CountiesPoverty Rates of 20% or more in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000

Nonmetro Persistent Poverty Counties (361)Source: Economic Research Service, USDA and U.S. Census Bureau2000 Update Prepared and Mapped by RUPRI

Page 25: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Source: U.S. Census BureauMap Prepared by RUPRI

Nonmetro Counties (459)

Metro Counties (41)

500 Poorest Counties in the U.S., 2000

Page 26: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

4. The 1990’s rural population shifts were very significant:• The 1990’s saw a rural population rebound; which totally

reversed the outmigration of the 1980’s.• 70% of rural counties grew in population from 1990 to

1999.• But, this growth is largely concentrated in only 40% of

rural counties. • 7/8 of these growing counties derived some or all of their

increase from in-migration of metro residents.• 61% of rural counties experienced net in-migration between

1990 and 1999.• In fact, between 1990 and 1999, 2.2 million more

Americans moved from the city to the country, than the reverse.

Page 27: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

• However, rural population increases have steadily dropped since momentarily exceeding urban levels in 1994-95.

• And, all rural counties have turned downward in growth rate since 1995, except commuter counties:– Mining and farming dependent counties had the greatest relative fall-off in

pace of growth.

• In 1998-99, the rural population growth rate was less than half of urban.

• And, the number of rural counties with decreasing population rose from 600 in 1990-95 to 855 in 1995-99.

• Significant rural population declines continue in the Great Plains, and other “disadvantaged” rural areas.

• And, numerous growth counties are experiencing expanding diversity in ethnic / racial composition, with attendant challenges.

Page 28: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Rural Population Growth• 1990-1999 Population Growth

+ 3.9 million people + 7.6% increase from April 1990 to July 1998.

• Compared to 1980-1989 Population Growth+ 1.3 million people + 2.7% increase

• This entire 1990’s increase is a product of migration:• During 1980’s – annual rural outmovement of 269,000• During 1990’s – average annual inmovement of 242,000

• The fastest growth and migration rates occurred in the South and the West.

Page 29: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking
Page 30: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Net inmigration over 3.2% (1036 cos.) Net inmigration up to 3.2% (377 cos.) Net outmigration (892) Metro

Nonmetro net migration, 1990-99

Source : P repa red by Ec onomic Re se a rch S ervic e, USDA, using da ta from the Bure a u of the Ce nsus.

The US average for this period was 3.2 percent.The Nonmetro average for this period was 4.4 percent.

Page 31: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Figure 1Annual population growth rates for metro counties, nonmetro counties, and the Nation, 1990-99The pace of nonmertro population growth in 1998-99 continues the slowdown that began after 1994-95

0.79

0.911.01

0.961.02

0.8

0.68

0.560.48

1.151.2

1.1

0.990.93 0.95

1.03 1.01 1.01

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1990-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99

Percent

NonmetroMetroU.S. total

Page 32: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Total Population, 1990

Metro, inside central cities

31%

Metro, outside central cities

46%

Nonmetro23%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Page 33: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Total Population, 2000

Metro, inside central cities

30%Nonmetro

20%

Metro, outside central cities

50%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Page 34: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Total Hispanic Population, 1990

Metro, outside central cities

39%

Metro, inside central cities

51%

Nonmetro10%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Page 35: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Total Hispanic Population, 2000

Nonmetro9%

Metro, inside central cities

46%

Metro, outside central cities

45%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Page 36: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Total Population, 1990 and 2000

-

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

Metroinside central cities

Metrooutside central cities

Nonmetro

1990

2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Page 37: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Total Hispanic Population, 1990 and 2000

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

Metroinside central cities

Metrooutside central cities

Nonmetro

1990

2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Page 38: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Total Population

1990

Hispanic Population

1990

Hispanic Percent

1990U.S. Total 248,709,873 22,354,059 9.0%

Metropolitan Total 192,725,741 20,204,818 10.5%Metroinside central cities 77,843,533 11,514,252 14.8%Metrooutside central cities 114,882,208 8,690,566 7.6%

Nonmetro 55,984,132 2,149,241 3.8%

Total Population

2000

Hispanic Population

2000

Hispanic Percent

2000U.S. Total 281,421,906 35,305,818 12.5%

Metropolitan Total 225,981,679 32,173,942 14.2%Metroinside central cities 85,401,127 16,459,217 19.3%Metrooutside central cities 140,580,552 15,714,725 11.2%

Nonmetro 55,440,227 3,131,876 5.6%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Page 39: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Percent Change

Total Population1990-2000

Percent Change Hispanic

Population1990-2000

U.S. Total 13.2% 57.9%

Metropolitan Total 17.3% 59.2%Metroinside central cities 9.7% 42.9%Metrooutside central cities 22.4% 80.8%

Nonmetro -1.0% 45.7%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Page 40: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Change in Rural & Urban Generations, 1990-2000

Gen X Baby Boomers

9.6%

0.1%

2.4%

12.5%

Urban Counties

Rural Counties

Born Between 1965-75 Born Between 1946-64U.S. Census Bureau

Page 41: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

5. Next, the relationship between federal, state, and local governments and government revenue streams have a major impact on rural areas:

• 2,305 of our nation’s 3,043 counties are rural (76% of counties, 83% of our nation’s land, and 25% of our nation’s population is rural).

• Rural economies are significantly dependent upon federal government transfer payments -- 20% of total personal income in rural America comes from federal transfers to rural community citizens.

Page 42: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Rural Governance: The Challenge for “Citizen Servants”

• 72% of county governments serve fewer than 50,000 persons.

• 700 of the 3,043 serve fewer than 10,000.

• 90% of the 36,001 sub-county general purpose governmental units serve less than 10,000.

• 82% have populations under 5,000.

• 51% serve less than 1,000.

Page 43: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

6. Health care, education, workforce, and welfare reform remain critical rural issues:• Education:

– Recent rural high school graduation rates match or exceed urban rates.– Rural dropout rates have fallen sharply in recent years,

• But --– Rural out-migration remains largely our youngest and most highly

educated:“Rural America’s most important export remains our best and our brightest.”

– So, fewer young adults in rural areas seek post secondary education; have college degrees; and more have no high school diplomas (23.5% rural and 17.4% urban, 1997).

• Yet, --– Rural schools represented 22% of all public schools in 1997, but:

• Only received 12.5% of federal funding• 14% of all state funding• 11% of all local funding

Page 44: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking
Page 45: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

• Health:– 22 million rural residents live in federally-designed Health

Professions Shortage Areas, or Medically Underserved Areas, and

– Rural residents tend to have poorer health care access; lower health insurance coverage, and little or no managed care availability.

• Welfare Reform: In 1996, –21% of our nation’s welfare population was rural.–15 states had more than 50% of their welfare

population living in rural areas.– Caseloads have declined, but:

–Working age poverty hasn’t (1992-1997):Central cities 7% decline – 22 to 20%Suburbs 10% decline – 10 to 9%Rural Unchanged – 17%

Page 46: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

II. The potential to exploit these realities, in building a constituency for crafting a community based rural policy:• New political realities• The policy context• Alternatives for consideration

Page 47: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

The New Political Realities• Suburbanization of the American public policy arena

– 1990 Census– 1992 Presidential Election– The 25/25/50 rule– 2000 Census – The Congressional reality

• Devolution: “To” the states, or “through” the states?– Current downturn has changed much, but . . . – 31 states have cut taxes since 1996– Since 1990, state and local government expenditures up 15%,

in real terms– Nearly $50 billion in current state budget deficits– Federal workforce reduced by 345,000 since 1990– State and local government workforce expanded by nearly 2

million in same period

Page 48: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

The Rural Congressional Snapshot• 1966 – Rural Majority in 181 House Districts (42%)

1993 – Rural Majority in 77 House Districts (18%)Congressional Quarterly (60%) – 57 Districts (13%)

• Today, only thirteen states have a rural majority. These states represent 59 electoral votes. (Only 5 more than California, which is only 3% rural.)

• 1993 CRS study (1990 Census data):– No rural district in top 100 family median income

districts.– Only two rural districts in top 200 family median

income districts.– Most rural districts were in the bottom 100.

Page 49: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

The Challenge of a National Rural Policy: Five Key Components

• Believable problem articulation

• National voice

• Coalition consensus

• Sustained, integrative implementation strategy

• Visionary leadership - AARP!

Page 50: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Why a National Rural Policy is So Difficult to Achieve• “Rural” remains synonymous with “agriculture”• A constituency has not been organized

– Many sector-level constituencies• Congressional and Administration programs

remain fragmented.– No one Congressional Committee or Administrative

Department with overall responsibility for rural policy and rural program integration

Page 51: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

The “Policy” Component of Rural Policy• What?

– Integrative national rural policy• Global examples

– National sector-level rural policy• Department initiatives• Congressional initiatives• Philanthropic initiatives• Private sector initiatives

– Integrative state rural policy• Governor’s initiatives• Legislative initiatives• Public / private sector initiatives• Philanthropic initiatives

Page 52: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

The “Policy” Component of Rural Policy• Who?

– “Change agents” for a “new rural reality?”• President• Congress• Colleges / Universities• Governors• State Legislatures• Philanthropic community• Private sector

– Building a constituency for action

Page 53: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Hopeful Developments of Possible Consequence:– Congressional Rural Caucus – Presidential Letter– National Rural Network:

• New rural mission areas in many NGOs

– Farm Bill Rural Development Title– HHS Secretary’s Rural Initiative– State-level policy efforts– Emergent, new rural leadership:

• Expanding leadership role for women

– Kansas City Fed – Center for the Study of Rural America– Expanding philanthropic interest in rural portfolio– Rural “new governance”: public / private / philanthropic

collaborations– State Rural Development Councils

Page 54: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

III. The Rural / Urban Dialectic

Page 55: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

“Dialectic: n. Any systematic reasoning, exposition, or argument that juxtaposes opposed or contradictory ideas and usually seeks to resolve their conflict.”

-Webster’s Ninth New Collegiate Dictionary

Page 56: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

The Policy Differential

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Four Considerations of This Differential:

• Rural Housing• Poverty Rates in Female-Headed

Households• Rural Youth Substance Abuse• PROWA

Page 58: Toward a Community Based Rural Policy: Implications for ...• A growing understanding of the true rural economy • The new Census and its public policy implications • Rethinking

Housing Conditions:Rural vs. Urban

0

5

10

15

20

Non-poor

Rural

Non-poor

Urban

PoorRural

PoorUrban

CrowdedInadequate

Source: ERS, USDA. 1995.

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Poverty Rates among Female-Headed Families with Children

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

NonmetroMetro

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Rural Youth / Substance AbuseIn 1999:• Rural eighth graders were 32% more likely to have used

marijuana in the past month than those in large metro areas. • Rural eighth graders were 52% more likely to have used cocaine

in the past year than those in large metro areas. • Rural eighth graders were 75% more likely to have used crack

cocaine in the past year than those in large metro areas.• Rural eighth graders were 104% more likely to have used

amphetamines, including methamphetamines, in the past month than those in large metro areas.

• Rural eighth graders were 29% more likely to have used alcohol in the past month than those in large metro areas.

• Rural eighth graders were twice as likely to have smoked cigarettes in the past month than those in large metro areas.

The National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse at Columbia University (CASA). 2000. No Place to Hide: Substance Abuse in Mid-Size Cities and Rural America. JAN 2000, Columbia University. New York, NY: Columbia University.

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PRWORA’s Labor Market Assumptions:

The labor market can absorb workers

workers and jobs)transitioning from welfare (Match between

Workers can earn enough to sustain their families

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Selected Economic Characteristics of Metro and Nonmetro Areas

Metro NonmetroUnemployment Rate, 1999

4.2 4.4

Employment Change, 1995-99

1.9 0.9

Average weekly earnings, 1999

610 485

Poverty Rate, 1998 12.3 14.3

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Characteristics of Distressed Rural Areas

· Small populations· Large minority populations· Remote from urban areas· Low human capital levels

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Average Weekly Earnings, 1999(dollars)

213

367485

610

0100

200300400500

600700

Metro Nonmetro Nonmetro Lessthan High

School

Nonmetro LTHSWomen

Calculated by ERS using data from the Current Population Survey

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Share of Less-Educated Workers in “Good-Paying” Occupations, 1999(percent)

6.613.5

32.2

44.3

30.429

05

101520253035404550

Metro Nonmetro NonmetMen

NonmetBlack Men

NonmetWomen

NonmetBlack

Women

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Highest Level of Adult Education Attainment, 2001

No High School High School Some College, Assoicate Bachelor Degree

25%

37%

17%

8%

14%

20%

29%

19%

7%

24%

Degree Degree But No Degree or HigherDegree

Nonmetropolitan Metropolitan

U.S. Census Bureau: Current Population Survey, March 2001

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Welfare, Work and Poverty in Urban and Rural Areas:Implications for Reauthorization

Bruce A. WeberOregon State University and

Rural Policy Research Institute

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Does Place Matter in Welfare Reauthorization?• Some research finds metro/nonmetro

differences in welfare reform outcomes; other research does not.

• Is this because the metro/nonmetro classification is too aggregated?

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Between 1992 and 1998, single mothers in central cities and remote rural areas had:

• lower earnings growth, • more persistent poverty, and• more persistent welfare receipt

– Findings from a forthcoming Brookings / RUPRI study

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The percent of single mothers with earnings increased across the urban-rural continuum

Figure 13. Single Mothers Reporting Earnings, by Residence: 1992 and 1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

central city balance of metro nonmetro adjacentcounties

nonmetro nonadjacentcounties

Place of residence

Perc

ent (

%) r

epor

ting

earn

ings

1992 1998

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But single mother median earnings did not increase in central cities and remote rural counties

Figure 14. Median Earnings of Single Mothers, by Residence: 1992 and 1998

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

central city balance of metro nonmetro adjacentcounties

nonmetro nonadjacentcounties

Place of residence

Ann

ual E

arni

ngs

(US$

)

1992 1998

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And single mother poverty rates went down least in central cities and remote rural counties

Figure 15. Poverty Among Single Mother Families, by Residence: 1992 and 1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

central city balance of metro nonmetro adjacent counties nonmetro nonadjacentcounties

Place of residence

Perc

ent (

%) b

elow

low

-inco

me

leve

l

1992

1998

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Poverty is most persistent in central counties and remote rural counties

Figure 11. Poverty Duration, Single Mothers by Residence: 1993 to 1998

0

5

10

15

20

25

central metrocounties

fringe metrocounties

other metrocounties

nonmetro adjacentcounties

nonmetrononadjacent

countiesPlace of residence

Perc

ent (

%) p

oor

1 to 2 years3 to 4 years5 years

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Welfare receipt is most persistent in central counties and remote rural counties

Figure 10. Public Assistance Duration, Single Mothers by Residence: 1993 to 1998

0

5

10

15

20

25

central metrocounties

fringe metrocounties

other metrocounties

nonmetro adjacentcounties

nonmetrononadjacent

countiesPlace of residence

Perc

ent (

%) r

epor

ting

publ

ic a

ssis

tanc

e re

ceip

t

1 to 2 years3 to 4 years5 years

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IV. Linking policy and community practice: “Bring in the bridge builders!”

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Building a new “rural pragmatism”

or . . . .

“So, if we all care so muchabout rural America,

Why is she in such bad shape?”

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Three Questions, for your Consideration:• Given our suburban policy context and the

public’s misperception of our current rural realities, where do rural constituencies turn for support?

• Is the historic rural / ag family fight really helpful to either sibling?

• Is it possible that central city and rural residents may have more uniting them than dividing them?

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“Would you tell me please, which way I ought to go from here?” said Alice.

“That depends a good deal on where you want to get,” said the cat.

“I don’t much care where,” said Alice.“Then it doesn’t matter much which way you

go,” said the cat.- Lewis Carroll

Alice in Wonderland

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Community Policy and Constituency Convergence:

Toward a Place-Based Policy:“Why Cities Matter . . .”

The Brookings Institution

Community ConnectionsDoug Nelson, PresidentThe Annie E. Casey Foundation

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“No snowflake in an avalancheever feels responsible!”

- Stanislaus Lezcynski

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“The poet is the joiner, he sees how they join.”

- Walt Whitman, 1855

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The OECD Framework:

• Sector to Place• Subsidy to Regional Competitiveness• A Governance Structure to Accomplish

Both

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Toward a Rural Renaissance: Building a New Institutional Framework for Rural Economic Development:

• Regional Collaborations• Jurisdictional Realignments• Optimizing the “Public / Private” Moment• The Critical Role of Health Care

– Is this a “bridge too far”?

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Implications for Rural Health Care

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National Non-Health Policy Issues with Critical Rural Differential Impact:

– The Census Results / Redistricting – Workforce Investment Act Reauthorization – PRWORA reauthorization– Telecom Act– Rural Equity and Venture Capital Formation– Rural Entrepreneurship:

• Private• Public

– Farm Bill Reauthorization– Higher Education Title

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Trends Critical to Rural Areas: All Health Sector Related• Technological Change• Globalization• Localization• Rural Migration• Aging and Lifetime Learning• Settlement Patterns• Devolution and New Governance• Decentralized Public Sector Decision

Making

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Five Critical Rural Health Developments• HHS Secretary’s Rural Initiative• Recession / State Funding Challenges• Workforce / WIA Reauthorization• Welfare Reform Reauthorization • Medicaid / Medicare Reform

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The Critical Importance of Building Rural Public and Private Entrepreneurship!

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Redefining the Public Metaphor and Rhetoric Regarding Rural America!

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HHS Rural Task Force

“This internal HHS Rural Task Force will examine how existing program serve rural communities; will consider the impact of the HHS funding on rural economies; and will make recommendations to improve health care and social services to rural America. . .”

Federal Register; August 29, 2001

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“Why not go out on a limb? That’s where the fruit is”.

Will Rogers

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“The question is not what you look at, but what you see.”

-Henry David Thoreau