Tourism Tropical North QueenslandTourism Tropical North Queensland ... Bloomberg Terminal Data as of 1 October 2015; KPMG Demographics Company USD bn ... 27 Ford Motor 144 USmedia.ttnq.org.au/_documents/9-14ae2778efa1a7e2f64... ·

Tourism Tropical North Queensland

Strategic Outlook for Tourism

Bernard Salt

6 November 2015

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Sydney

Melbourne

Hobart

Adelaide

Perth

Darwin

Brisbane

Canberra

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

This map speaks to cultural truth about

the Australian people

Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2014

WINNERS

LOSERS

Cairns



Australia is a rich nation with sufficient critical mass for investment

RICHEST 1. Switzerland 84,000

2. United States 56,000

3. Australia 52,000

4. Canada 45,000

5. Netherlands 44,000

6. United Kingdom 44,000

7. Germany 42,000

8. France 38,000

9. Japan 33,000

10. Italy 31,000

GDP > $US500bn $US GDP pc 2015 $USbn GDP 2015 GDP > $US500bn

2010 - 2015

Source: Based on International Monetary Fund; World Economic Outlook Database; April 2015; KPMG Demographics

FASTEST-RISING 1. China 88%

2. Nigeria 38%

3. India 35%

4. Korea 31%

5. Saudi Arabia 23%

6. Argentina 22%

7. United States 21%

8. Indonesia 19%

9. … 18%

14. Australia 0.0%

BIGGEST 1. United States 18,120

2. China 11,210

3. Japan 4,210

4. Germany 3,410

5. United Kingdom 2,850

6. France 2,470

7. India 2,310

8. Brazil 1,900

9. … …

12.Australia 1,250



More Australians now travel overseas than overseas visitors travel to Australia

Notes: Main source of data are from passenger cards, collected by the Australian Department of Immigration and Border Protection. Short term refers to visitors less than 1 year.

No.

Arr

ival

s an

d D

epar

ture

s $1 A

UD

= US

D

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; RBA data; KPMG Demographics

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Aug

-200

1 O

ct-2

001

Dec

-200

1 Fe

b-20

02

Apr

-200

2 Ju

n-20

02

Aug

-200

2 O

ct-2

002

Dec

-200

2 Fe

b-20

03

Apr

-200

3 Ju

n-20

03

Aug

-200

3 O

ct-2

003

Dec

-200

3 Fe

b-20

04

Apr

-200

4 Ju

n-20

04

Aug

-200

4 O

ct-2

004

Dec

-200

4 Fe

b-20

05

Apr

-200

5 Ju

n-20

05

Aug

-200

5 O

ct-2

005

Dec

-200

5 Fe

b-20

06

Apr

-200

6 Ju

n-20

06

Aug

-200

6 O

ct-2

006

Dec

-200

6 Fe

b-20

07

Apr

-200

7 Ju

n-20

07

Aug

-200

7 O

ct-2

007

Dec

-200

7 Fe

b-20

08

Apr

-200

8 Ju

n-20

08

Aug

-200

8 O

ct-2

008

Dec

-200

8 Fe

b-20

09

Apr

-200

9 Ju

n-20

09

Aug

-200

9 O

ct-2

009

Dec

-200

9 Fe

b-20

10

Apr

-201

0 Ju

n-20

10

Aug

-201

0 O

ct-2

010

Dec

-201

0 Fe

b-20

11

Apr

-201

1 Ju

n-20

11

Aug

-201

1 O

ct-2

011

Dec

-201

1 Fe

b-20

12

Apr

-201

2 Ju

n-20

12

Aug

-201

2 O

ct-2

012

Dec

-201

2 Fe

b-20

13

Apr

-201

3 Ju

n-20

13

Aug

-201

3 O

ct-2

013

Dec

-201

3 Fe

b-20

14

Apr

-201

4 Ju

n-20

14

Aug

-201

4 O

ct-2

014

Dec

-201

4 Fe

b-20

15

Apr

-201

5 Ju

n-20

15

Aug

-201

5

Arrivals Departures $AUD

2004 2008 2012

xxx

Tropical North Queensland

Pop. June 2014: 281,000

Growth pa: 2,920

Biggest city: Cairns (155k)

Northern Territory: 245,000

Distance to Brisbane: 1,700km



Scope to further develop international tourism

Direct flights from Cairns Airport as at October 2015

Source: KPMG; Cairns International Airport

Singapore

Hong Kong

Port Moresby

Osaka Tokyo

Bali

•  Auckland •  Los Angeles •  Shanghai •  Vancouver •  Seoul



New acronyms for our newest tribes

PUMCINS …

→ Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs

…NETTELs

←Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life

KIPPERS …

→ Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings

…LOMBARDS

←Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead

Source: KPMG Demographics



Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2014 and 10 years to 2024


Business opportunities at all stages of the lifecycle

2004-2014: 3.6 million (19.9m to 23.5m)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

2014-2024: 4.2 million (23.5m to 27.7m)

Active retirees

Grey nomads & lifestylers

Mature adults

Business travel

Kids & teens

Kids clubs

SCHOOL BUS

Young adults

Family holidays



Ours is an aspirational consumer culture

Source: ABS Catalogue 5206.0 Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product; KPMG Demographics

Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from June 1960

-‐1.5

-‐1

-‐0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Jun-‐1960

Mar-‐1961

Dec-‐19

61

Sep-‐1962

Jun-‐1963

Mar-‐1964

Dec-‐19

64

Sep-‐1965

Jun-‐1966

Mar-‐1967

Dec-‐19

67

Sep-‐1968

Jun-‐1969

Mar-‐1970

Dec-‐19

70

Sep-‐1971

Jun-‐1972

Mar-‐1973

Dec-‐19

73

Sep-‐1974

Jun-‐1975

Mar-‐1976

Dec-‐19

76

Sep-‐1977

Jun-‐1978

Mar-‐1979

Dec-‐19

79

Sep-‐1980

Jun-‐1981

Mar-‐1982

Dec-‐19

82

Sep-‐1983

Jun-‐1984

Mar-‐1985

Dec-‐19

85

Sep-‐1986

Jun-‐1987

Mar-‐1988

Dec-‐19

88

Sep-‐1989

Jun-‐1990

Mar-‐1991

Dec-‐19

91

Sep-‐1992

Jun-‐1993

Mar-‐1994

Dec-‐19

94

Sep-‐1995

Jun-‐1996

Mar-‐1997

Dec-‐19

97

Sep-‐1998

Jun-‐1999

Mar-‐2000

Dec-‐20

00

Sep-‐2001

Jun-‐2002

Mar-‐2003

Dec-‐20

03

Sep-‐2004

Jun-‐2005

Mar-‐2006

Dec-‐20

06

Sep-‐2007

Jun-‐2008

Mar-‐2009

Dec-‐20

09

Sep-‐2010

Jun-‐2011

Mar-‐2012

Dec-‐20

12

Sep-‐2013

Jun-‐2014

Mar-‐2015

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Menzies Whitlam

Fraser Hawke

GST GFC



Australians are dividing the lifecycle into ‘thirds’

0 90 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Child Adult Old 1935

Child Teen Old Adult 1975 71

Child Adolescence Lifestyle Old Retired 2015

Adult 82

63

Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia




From Boomers to Xers and Ys … and finally to Zeds


Forgotten generation Wrong place … wrong time No workplace guilt Angsty about Ys Business travel

XGENERATION

■  Born 1965 – 1982 ■  Today 32 – 49

Hierarchical Indulged their kids Depression era parents Sandwich generation Leisure travel

BABY BOOMERS

■  Born 1946 – 1964 ■  Today 50 – 68

YGENERATION

Special … bubble-wrap Chaotic connection Entrepreneurials Disappointed generation? Overseas travel

■  Born 1983 – 2000 ■  Today 14 – 31

Parents results-oriented Youth in straitened times Highly educated, global Pragmatists … fixers Family travel

ZGENERATION

■  Born 2001 – 2019 ■  Today 0 – 13



The US dominates the world’s largest companies by revenue

Source: Bloomberg Terminal Data as of 1 October 2015; KPMG Demographics

Company USD bn

1 Wal-Mart Stores 486 US

2 Sinopec Group 447 CN

3 Royal Dutch Shell 431 NL

4 China National Petroleum 429 CN

5 Exxon Mobil 383 US

6 BP 359 GB

7 State Grid 339 CN

8 Volkswagen 269 DE

9 Toyota Motor 248 JP

10 Glencore 221 CH

Company USD bn

11 Total 212 FR

12 Chevron 204 US

13 Samsung Electronics 196 KR

14 Berkshire Hathaway 195 US

15 Apple 183 US

16 McKesson 181 US

17 Daimler 172 DE

18 Industrial & Comm. Bank of China 163 CN

19 EXOR Group 162 IT

20 AXA 161 FR

Company USD bn

21 General Motors 156 US

22 E.ON 151 DE

23 Phillips 66 149 US

24 General Electric 148 US

25 ENI 147 IT

26 Gazprom 144 RU

27 Ford Motor 144 US

28 Petrobras 144 BR

29 China Construction Bank 140 CN

30 CVS Health 139 US



However Beijing is now arguably the world’s most powerful corporate city

Source: Based on Zomato; Melway Mapping; KPMG Demographics

New York Beijing

•  NYC Global 500 HQs by revenue was 36 in 2005 and 25 in 2015

•  Beijing Global 500 HQs by revenue was 12 in 2005 and 51 in 2015



Australia will benefit from rise of “The Dubai Effect”



Market opportunities in knowledge work this century

Hea

lthca

re

& S

ocia

l Ass

ist.

Prof

essi

onal

/ Sc

ient

ific/

Tech

.

Publ

ic A

dmin

&

Saf

ety

Acc

om &

Foo

d

Adm

in &

Sup

port

Min

ing

Educ

atio

n &

Tr

aini

ng

Art

s &

Rec

reat

ion

Fina

ncia

l &

Insu

ranc

e

Oth

er S

ervi

ces

Ret

ail T

rade

Who

lesa

le T

rade

Ren

tal/h

iring

&

Rea

l Est

ate

Info

Med

ia &

Te

leco

ms

Man

ufac

turin

g

Elec

tric

ity/G

as/

Wat

er &

Was

te

Agr

icul

ture

/For

estr

y

& F

ishi

ng

Tran

spor

t/Pos

tal/

War

ehou

se

Con

stru

ctio

n


Healthcare & Social Assist

Professionals & Sciences

Education

15 years Aug 2015 – up 2.8m (8.9m – 11.7m)

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Construction

Aug 2000 – Aug 2015 (000)

!  Jobs grown: 3,139 !  Jobs contracted: 343 !  Net jobs added: 2,796



150,000

Baby boomers are re-imagining how life is lived beyond 60

Net growth in population aged 65+ over 100 years in Australia

1950 2050 2000


-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

2034

2038

2042

2046

2050




What a successful region needs

Tertiary education campus

Local television production, daily newspaper, radio and media ‘culture’

Connectivity to a capital city

Geographic command over distinct and resource-rich region

Access to affordable housing

Access to diverse lifestyle options like seachange, treechange, suburbia, inner-city

Expandable infrastructure in water, power, sewerage, roads

Galvanised community with an entrepreneurial spirit




Develop Tropical North Queensland into a lifestyle and tourism destination

We are a small prosperous but isolated nation that should naturally look for lifestyle and tourism options within the Australia continent … including Tropical North Queensland

1

Baby boomers are entering that stage of the lifecycle when they will be inclined to travel and/or to the notion of ‘wintering up north’ … Generation X are interested in short breaks while Gen-Y want exotic travel

2

Tropical North Queensland could be developed as the Australian Costa Brava for Southerners and for the rising middle class of China and beyond … will need to further develop international connectivity

3

Cairns and the tropical north have all the attributes required to sustain a sustainable independent region although more can be achieved … harness community support to press for stronger tourism and lifestyle connections into China

4



Introducing the Cairns bachelor hot spot …

Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2011 Census

Kewarra Beach 1.85:1

Captain Cook Highway

“Highway of Love”

Cairns City 1.32:1




@bernardsalt

Bernard Salt Demographer

linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt

[email protected]

+61 3 9288 5047

www.bernardsalt.com.au

@bernardsalt

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Tourism Tropical North QueenslandTourism Tropical North Queensland ... Bloomberg Terminal Data as of 1 October 2015; KPMG Demographics Company USD bn ... 27 Ford Motor 144 USmedia.ttnq.org.au/_documents/9-14ae2778efa1a7e2f64... ·