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ESTC 2008: Dr. Joe Kelly, InterVISTAS Consulting, Tourism and Climate Change: Issues and Solutions
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strategictransportation
& tourismsolutions
Tourism and Climate Change
Ecotourism and Sustainable Tourism Conference 2008
Prepared by
Joe Kelly
Director, Environmental Services
InterVISTAS Consulting, Inc.
October 2008
1
A Changing Climate
Carbon dioxide & other greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the climate
Climate change poses serious risks for businesses
Fossil fuel intensive industries are most at risk
2
A Personal Memory
Ken Read on his way to winning Hahnenkamm downhill in Kitzbuhel, Austria in 1980
3
The Current Reality
Kitzbuhel, Austria, January, 2007 – less than two weeks before Hahnenkamm downhill
4
Is Tourism a Victim or Culprit?
"Making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are a symptom of sin.”
"Sin is not just a restricted list of moral mistakes. It is living a life turned in on itself where people ignore the consequences of their actions."
• Richard ChartresBishop of London
5
Tourism – The Culprit
6
Tourism’s Contribution
Tourism’s contribution to global climate change is ~5% in terms of CO2 emissions
Air travel accounts for ~40% of the tourism contribution of CO2
Air travel accounts for ~60% of the international tourism contribution of CO2 and is overwhelmingly dominant at medium- and long-haul
7
Whistler’s Carbon Footprint
Aviation emissions account for ~78% of all emissions Internal GHG reductions dwarfed by air travel emissions
Source: Kelly & Williams, 2007
2030
~ 14%
~ 86%
Internal
Whistler’s CO2 Emissions
Visitor Travel to/from Whistler
8
Tourism’s Challenge
Travel is a prerequisite for tourism
HOWEVER…
It challenges the concept of sustainability the most
9
Global Tourism Emissions
CO2 (Mt) %
Air Transport 517 40%
Other Transport 468 36%
Accommodation 274 21%
Activities 45 3%
Total Emissions 1,307 100%
Source: UNWTO, Climate Change and Tourism, 2007
Global Tourism’s CO2 Emissions , 2004
10
Good News – Efficiency Gains
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.919
80
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
per P
asse
nger
Mile
- Po
unds
Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007.
CAGR: -1.9%
US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions per Passenger Mile 1980 – 2004
11
But Rapid Growth in Air Travel
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
70019
80
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
Pass
enge
r Mile
s (B
illio
ns)
Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007.
CAGR: 4.0%
US Domestic Air Travel 1980 - 2004
12
Total Emissions Climb
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
40019
80
1985
1990
1991
1992
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1994
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1998
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
Tota
l CO
2 Em
issi
ons
- Bill
ions
of P
ound
s
Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007.
CAGR: 2.0%
US Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions 1980 - 2004
13
Aviation Emissions Growing Faster than Total Emissions
Sources: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics National Transportation Statistics 2007 and OECD
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Annual Percentage Change
AviationTransportTotal
2.0%
1.6%
0.9%
US CO2 Emissions Annualized Growth Rate 1980 - 2004
14
Projected Growth in Air Travel
Air transport is one of the fastest-growing sectors of the world economy2006 and 2007 forecasts by Airbus, Boeing and the Airports Council International (ACI) predict that there will be almost unprecedented growth in aviation markets over the next 20 yearsACI’s 2007 forecast stated that the number of air travelers will double by 2025 to more than 9 billion per year, which corresponds to an annualize growth rate of 3.9%
Source: The Hodgkinson Group, Strategies for Airlines On Aircraft Emissions and Climate Change: Sustainable, Long - Term Solutions
15
Projected Growth in Air Travel
Source: Boeing 2007 Current Market Outlook
16
The Future – A Larger Share of a Larger Pie
Aviation emissions will increase 65% by 2030 Total emissions will increase by 25% by 2030
Source: Energy Information Administration
2005 2030
~ 4% ~ 5.5% AviationAviation
US CO2 Emissions 2005 vs. 2030
17
Tourism – The Victim
18
Direct Physical Risks
Damage to physical assets
Increased insurance premiums
Decreased property values (e.g. weather-dependent businesses)
Forced relocation of operations
19
Direct Physical Risks
Alpine ski resorts below 1,050 metres will no longer be viable with natural snow within 20 years
Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Glaciers will all but disappear within 45 years and all but the highest Alpine ski resorts will close
20
Indirect Risks –Consumer Response/Backlash
21
Indirect Risks – Rising Energy & Commodity Prices
22
Indirect Risks –Government Regulation
It will not take long for the government to step in and impose changes
This will most likely come in the form of increased taxes and/or carbon trading schemes
US General Election will bring new regulatory framework on climate change
23
Is Tourism Prepared?
24
Solutions
25
New Aircraft Technology
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
Scheduled to enter service in 2009Boeing’s first new aircraft since launching the 777 in 1990
Airbus A350Scheduled to enter service in 2013Long-range, mid-sized, wide-body aircraft
26
Winglets
Source: Airliners.net http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1060096/L/
27
Blended Wing Body
28
Technology is Not Enough
A study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that “the increase in aviation emissions attributable to a growing demand for air travel would not be fully offset by reductions in emissions achieved through technological improvements alone”
Source: US General Accounting Office, “Aviation and the Environment: Aviation’s Effects on the Global Atmosphere Are Potentially Significant and Expected to Grow”
29
Government ResponsesBC’s new carbon tax
The EU plans to add aviation to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) starting in 2012
Starting in 2009, the UK intends to replace air passenger duty with a “per flight” tax based on carbon emissions
Cap & trade legislation inevitable regionally if not nationally
30
Fuel Switching
31
Carbon Offsets
CO2 emissions countered by financial contributions to projects that reduce emissions elsewhere
Energy efficiency projectsRenewable energy projectsTree planting (suspect)
Voluntary offsets will mitigate negative economic impacts
Most price sensitive will not volunteerCarbon offsetting provides a viable “transition strategy” until more permanent solutions are feasible
32
Current Aviation Offset Programs
Mandatory (100% participation)SilverJet (business travel b/w New York, London, and Dubai)Harbour Air (North America’s first carbon neutral airline)NetJets (private jet company)
“Opt-in”Qantas Group (~10% participation; includes ground-related emissions)BALufthansa/SASDeltaContinentalAir CanadaMany others
33
Reasons for non-participation39%: costs too high36%: concerned that funds would not be used effectively23%: offset projects might not be effective6%: offsets not needed2%: payment should be mandatory for all, not voluntary
Source: “Destination Carbon Offsetting: A Behavioural Assessment”; Dr. Joe Kelly, Peter Williams, Wolfgang Haider
Credibility is Key
34
A Successful Offset Program =Choose high quality offsets that:
Are additionalAre verified by a third partyProvide lasting environmental benefitAre socially beneficial
Fully integrate offset scheme in marketing, communications and booking systemsUse transparent communications that demonstrate:
Efficient use of fundsCredibility of offset projects
35
Growing Market Opportunity
2003 study by the Travel Industry Association of America and National Geographic Traveler found:
11% of US travelers consider environmental factors when deciding which travel companies to patronize 38% of them would “pay more” to use travel companies that strive to protect and preserve the environment
36
37
Harbour Air
North America’s first carbon neutral airline, since October 2007
Revenue has improved 12%, driven largely by increased market share
Despite rising fuel prices and introduction of carbon tax in British Columbia
38
Get in Front of the Market
InternalEngagement
Visioning/Strategy
Communication Audits
Planning
Implementation
Evaluation/Monitoring
1. Measure Carbon Footprint
2. Establish Targets
3. Plan and Implement Reduction Strategies
4. Purchase Carbon Offsets
5. Communicate Successes
39
Big Opportunities Come From Bold Actions
New market opportunities & brand value
Strategic leadership
Competitive advantage
Lower operating costs
Adapting to or avoiding emerging regulations
strategictransportation
& tourismsolutions
Thank Youwww.InterVISTAS.com
41
InterVISTAS ConsultingInterVISTAS Consulting:
80 team membersBroad range of marketing, security, facilitation, planning, economics and environmental servicesHeadquartered in Vancouver, with additional offices in Winnipeg, Ottawa, Toronto, Washington, Chicago and London
Part of the DHV Group, with sister companies:
NACODelcanInnova