Total Real Construction PIP - Portland Cement Association · Despite a dip in nonresidential capacity utilization rates in 2016 and 2017, as office worker employment rises, the capacity

●

●

Job Gain/Loss (000 SA)

2357 161

1.6% 0.1%

Y-O-Y M-O-M

7.7% 1.8%

●

0.6% 0.4%

6%

During October, there were 5,553,000 (SAAR) total single family home sales. This was a 1.8% increase from last month and the year-over-year growth was 7.7%. Housing starts also had significant year-over-year growth at 23.3%, with 1,323,000 (SAAR) starts in October.

Nonresidential Construction

●

0.0

Total starts are projected to reach 1.16 million in 2016 and 1.20 million in 2017. Single Family's share of total starts is expected to rise over time, reaching 71% in 2021.

Change in Fixed Mortgage RateResidential Construction

Change in Average Home Price

Residential construction spending for October was $377 billion, down 1.2% year-over-year. New housing units accounted for $248 billion while improvements made up the other $128 billion.

Y-O-Y

0.2%

●

-1% 1.4%

Res. Real Construction PIP

0.3%

6%

Economic Indicators●

●

M-O-M

●

The second estimate for third quarter GDP growth was improved 0.3 percentage points, up to 3.2%. This boost was brought about by an increase in consumer spending and a decrease to inventories. This brings the average annual growth rate to 1.8%.

Real GDP % Change (Q-O-Q)

3.2%

-0.1

Change in Inflation

Change in Consumer Confidence

Change in Unemployment

(0.1)

Data current as of: December 2, 2016

Total Single Family Sales

Res. Construction Employment

Change in Housing Starts

(3)

M-O-M

Total Real Construction PIP

(0.4)

Y-O-Y Forecast Version: Fall 2016

Total construction spending (real SAAR) grew 0.6% on a year-over-year basis in October. Nonresidential construction spending increased by 6.5%. Residential spending was down 1.2%, while public spending grew slightly 0.2% in October.

Job creation is expected to grow more slowly in 2017 but rebound in 2019 by reaching 2.3 million jobs. The unemployment rate is projected to decline consistently through 2019, reaching a floor of 4.1% before returning to the mid-4% level.

May 10, 2017Next Forecast Release:

2

26%23%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16

Total Real Construction PIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Real Construction PIP)

Total Real Construction PIP

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Res. Real Construction PIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Res. Real Construction PIP)

Res. Real Construction PIP(Mil SAAR)

(Mil SAAR)

Heavy & Civil Constr. Emp.

0.9%

2.8%

Public Employment

0.1%

3.0%

0.4%

0.2%

-0.1%

Public Real Construction PIP

Public Construction

0.1%

●

●

●Y-O-Y M-O-M

0.6%

1.3%

Despite a dip in nonresidential capacity utilization rates in 2016 and 2017, as office worker employment rises, the capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually rise throughout the forecast horizon.

Real Construction spending for the public sector showed slight improvement in October, up 0.2%. The main driver was public building spending which rose 6.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Federal construction spending increased 8.4% in October from last month; however, spending at the federal level was still down 2.9% year-over-year. State and local spending was $200,216,000 in October, a 0.5% increase year-over-year.

Many of President-Elect Trump's initiatives are considered controversial; however, PCA has identified two of the most likely public initiatives to come before Congress: An acceleration in infrastructure investment and tax reform.

Real Public Expenditures

Nonres. Real Construction PIP

20 Yr Muni Yield Composite

-

3.9%

Nonres Constr. Employment

(1.0)

Change in DJ REIT Index

(0.7)

0.1%

1.8%

4%

Nonresidential ConstructionReal nonresidential construction spending rose 6.5% year-over-year. The largest gains were seen in office and educational spending, at 23.4% and 18.2% respectively. However, the manufacturing sector fell 7.9% from last October.

-5.0%

●

●

There was virtually no change in nonresidential employment which remained at 75.3 million jobs. The lack of manufacturing spending is also reflected in the employment market, which is down 0.4% year-over-year.

% of Banks Tightening Credit

Change in Corp Risk Prem

1.7%

5%

●

- - -

Real Personal Income

6.5% -2.2%

Nonres. Employment

-2.6%

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000


Public Real Construction PIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Public Real Construction PIP)

Public Real Construction PIPPublic Real Construction PIP(Mil SAAR)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Nonresidential Real Construction PIP12 per. Mov. Avg. (Nonresidential Real Construction PIP)

Nonresidential Real Construction PIP(Mil SAAR)

Report Printed On: 12/2/2016 1

Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 3MMA 12MMA2016

ForecastGeneral Economic Indicators

Real GDP Growth (SAAR, % chng) - 3.2 - 3.2 1.6 1.6 3.2% - -Inflation Rate 1.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 0.1%Consumer Sentiment Index (1985=100) 101 96 1.7% -2.6%

Employment (000, SA)Employment 144,600 144,791 144,952 144,781 143,841 145,249 1.7% 0.1%

M-O-M Change in Employment 176 191 161 176 179 - 2,357 161 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 (0.1) (0.1) Total Construction Employment 6,645 6,668 6,679 6,664 6,624 - 3.0% 0.2%

M-O-M Change in Employment (6) 23 11 9 18 - 195 11 Residential Construction Employment 2,600 2,614 2,618 2,611 2,574 - 5.6% 0.2%

M-O-M Change in Employment 14 13 5 10 11 - 195 5 Nonresidential Construction Employment 3,117 3,122 3,125 3,121 3,111 - 1.8% 0.1%

M-O-M Change in Employment (11) 5 3 (1) 6 - 56 3 Heavy & Civil Engineering Constr. Employment 927 933 936 932 939 - -0.1% 0.4%

Change in Employment (9) 5 3 - 0 - (4) 3

Interest Rates (%)Federal Funds Rate 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 - LIBOR (1 month) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 - 0.3 (1.0) Three Year Treasury 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.1 (0.9) BAA Bond 4.2 4.3 - 4.3 5.0 4.8 (1.0) 0.1

Key Residential IndicatorsMortgage Rate 30 Yr Fixed (%) 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.9 (0.4) 0.0 Median Existing Home Price (000, SA) 230.5 236.9 237.6 235.0 230.9 310.5 5.9% 0.0 Median New Home Price (000, SA) 301.3 306.3 310.3 305.9 306.6 - 2.1% 1.3%Home Affordability Index (2004=100) 133.0 120.8 - 129.7 128.6 - -0.1% 0.0%New Home Sales (000, SAAR) 567 574 563 568 549 - 17.8% -1.9%Existing Home Sales (000, SAAR) 4,670 4,880 4,990 4,847 4,758 - 6.6% 2.3%Months Supply of New Single Family Homes 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 - (0.4) 0.2 Total Housing Starts (000, SAAR) 1,164.0 1,054.0 1,323.0 1,180.3 1,161.2 1,155.0 23.3% 25.5%

Key Nonresidential IndicatorsPercent of Banks Tightening Lending Standards (%) 7.5 6.4 3.8 5.9 4.6 - 5.2 (2.6) Corporate Risk Premium (%) 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 - (1.0) (0.7) Capacity Utilization (%) 75.6 75.4 75.3 75.4 75.5 75.0 (0.9) (0.0) Industrial Vacancy Rate (%) - - - - - - - - Office Vacancy Rate - - - - - 13.0 - - Nonresidential Employment (000, SA) 75,183 75,287 75,348 75,272 74,769 - 1.7% 0.1%

Office Employment 31,388 31,471 31,532 31,464 31,143 31,466 2.4% 0.2%Retail Employment 15,972 15,994 15,993 15,986 15,888 - 1.9% 0.0%

Y-O-Y Change M-O-M Change

4.0.6

p yLeisure Employment 15,548 15,555 15,565 15,556 15,441 - 2.0% 0.1%Manufacturing Employment 12,275 12,267 12,258 12,267 12,297 - -0.4% -0.1%

Dow Jones REIT Index (1990=100) 266.0 260.7 247.6 258.1 248.7 - 3.9% -5.0%Retail Dow Jones REIT Index 406.5 390.5 354.4 383.8 379.8 - -5.4% -9.2%Office Dow Jones REIT Index 378.0 365.1 343.2 362.1 342.7 - 1.5% -6.0%Industrial Dow Jones REIT Index 359.5 358.5 345.7 354.5 317.0 - 23.3% -3.6%

Key Public IndicatorsPersonal Income (Billions, SAAR) 16,098 16,161 16,260 16,173 15,897 - 3.9% 0.6% State and Local Government Tax Collections (Billion $) - 2,387 - 2,387 2,374 - 2.8% 1.9% State and Local Government Expenditures (Billion $) - 2,580 - 2,580 2,544 - 2.8% 1.3% Public Debt Outstanding (Billion $) 19,510 19,573 19,806 19,630 19,189 - 9.1% 1.2% Government Employment (000, SA) 22,169 22,213 22,216 22,221 22,112 - 0.9% 0.1% 20 Year Municipal Bond Yield Composite (%) - - - - - - - -

SAAR= Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate; SA = Seasonally Adjusted; NSA= Nonseasonally Adjusted; #MMA=# Month Moving Average; Y-O-Y= Year over Year; M-O-M= Month over Month;

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Dec-10 Oct-11 Aug-12 Jun-13 Apr-14 Feb-15 Dec-15 Oct-16

Change in Real GDP(Y‐O‐Y % Change)

Real GDP Growth (%)

‐30

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10

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70

Oct‐13 Feb‐14 Jun‐14 Oct‐14 Feb‐15 Jun‐15 Oct‐15 Feb‐16 Jun‐16 Oct‐16

Construction Employment (000, SA)

Construction Employment 6MMA

2

Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16Total 1,166,513 1,166,510 1,172,639 3.4% 997,001 994,718 998,420 0.6% 2.7%

Month to Month % Change 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% -0.2% 0.4%

Residential Buildings 456,206 458,782 466,238 4.7% 372,325 372,293 377,422 -1.2% 1.9% Month to Month % Change -0.1% 0.6% 1.6% -1.0% 0.0% 1.4%New Housing Units 298,047 298,791 307,179 0.8% 243,246 242,464 248,663 -4.8% 3.8%

Single Family 236,988 236,849 243,483 -1.6% 193,414 192,199 197,101 -7.1% 2.0%Multifamily 61,059 61,942 63,696 11.4% 49,832 50,265 51,562 5.1% 11.7%

Improvements 158,159 159,991 159,059 13.0% 129,079 129,830 128,759 6.7% -1.7%

Nonresidential Buildings 287,858 285,280 278,682 7.5% 258,678 256,712 251,083 6.5% 7.5% Month to Month % Change 1.9% -0.9% -2.3% 2.1% -0.8% -2.2%Manufacturing 78,434 75,187 73,365 -8.3% 71,059 68,355 66,901 -7.9% -3.0%Office 71,641 71,515 69,675 24.9% 64,361 64,282 62,633 23.4% 18.5%Lodging 27,811 27,760 27,164 23.1% 23,838 23,682 23,067 17.0% 22.0%Health Care 25,950 26,090 25,559 2.7% 25,031 25,214 24,737 2.4% 3.0%Religious 3,911 3,677 3,286 -14.3% 3,354 3,138 2,792 -18.5% 0.0%Educational 19,236 20,929 20,215 18.0% 16,774 18,319 17,753 18.2% 8.8%Commercial 60,875 60,122 59,418 6.9% 54,261 53,721 53,199 6.3% 8.0%

Farm Nonresidential 10,531 11,066 11,239 2.0% 9,028 9,442 9,545 -3.1% -5.7% Month to Month % Change -0.6% 5.1% 1.6% -1.1% 4.6% 1.1%

Public Utility & Other 120,518 119,190 116,691 -1.0% 102,366 101,049 98,731 -2.0% 2.9% Month to Month % Change -1.4% -1.1% -2.1% -1.6% -1.3% -2.3%

Transportation 11,622 11,843 12,443 -9.5% 10,254 10,441 10,962 -11.0% -Power 90,021 88,769 84,986 3.3% 76,483 75,262 71,898 3.1% -Communication 18,875 18,578 19,262 -12.0% 15,630 15,346 15,870 -14.9% -

Miscellaneous 49,341 49,821 49,937 -9.8% 42,997 43,344 43,355 -7.5% -3.1% Month to Month % Change -5.0% 1.0% 0.2% -5.2% 0.8% 0.0%Amusement 12,410 12,258 12,189 16.5% 10,636 10,456 10,349 3.0% -Public Miscellaneous 36,931 37,563 37,748 -10.9% 32,361 32,888 33,006 -2.9% -

Transportation 28,892 29,413 29,737 -8.6% 25,490 25,932 26,197 -10.2% -Power 7,088 7,289 7,390 -16.1% 6,022 6,180 6,252 -16.3% -Communication 162 78 103 -51.2% 134 64 85 -52.8% -Manufacturing 789 783 518 -35.5% 715 712 472 -35.2% -

Public Construction 242,059 242,371 249,852 0.8% 211,607 211,878 218,283 0.2% 0.7%Month to Month % Change 2 0% 0 1% 3 1% 2 0% 0 1% 3 0%

2016 Forecast

Current Dollars Real 2009 Dollars16/15

Change16/15

Change

4.0.6This Version:

Month to Month % Change 2.0% 0.1% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% 3.0%Public Buildings 106,216 105,157 108,964 7.4% 93,214 92,510 95,966 6.5% 1.8%

Education 69,234 69,381 72,208 11.7% 60,372 60,730 63,415 12.0% -Healthcare 9,004 9,000 8,813 0.6% 8,685 8,698 8,529 0.4% -Commercial 3,347 3,091 3,414 23.3% 2,983 2,762 3,057 22.5% -Residential 6,664 5,982 6,693 -0.4% 5,439 4,854 5,418 -6.0% -Lodging 278 301 271 -57.1% 238 257 230 -59.2% -Religious 0 0 0 -100.0% - - - -100.0% -Amusement 9,537 9,434 9,491 -5.3% 8,173 8,047 8,058 -10.0% -Office 8,152 7,968 8,074 2.3% 7,324 7,162 7,258 1.1% -

Highways & Streets 87,551 90,009 91,731 0.4% 76,551 78,573 79,939 0.4% 3.0%Public Safety 7,830 7,576 8,266 -12.0% 6,846 6,613 7,203 -11.9% -8.6%Conservation 7,313 7,312 7,811 -6.7% 6,325 6,307 6,719 -7.8% 1.0%Sewer Systems 21,489 20,538 21,202 -12.2% 18,586 17,715 18,238 -13.2% -3.3%Water Supply Systems 11,660 11,779 11,878 -10.8% 10,085 10,160 10,218 -11.9% -10.6%

Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are on a 2009 dollar basis and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR)

-10%

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Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16

Real Construction PIP ( Y-O-Y % Change)

Total Residential Buildings

-15%

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Real Construction PIP ( Y-O-Y % Change)

Nonresidential Buildings Public Construction

3

Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 3MMA 12MMAResidential Construction Spending 372,325 372,293 377,422 374,013 378,896 1.9% -1.2% 1.4%

New Housing 243,246 242,464 248,663 244,791 253,043 3.8% -4.8% 2.6%Single Family 193,414 192,199 197,101 194,238 203,202 2.0% -7.1% 2.6%Multifamily 49,832 50,265 51,562 50,553 49,841 11.7% 5.1% 2.6%

Improvements 129,079 129,830 128,759 129,223 125,853 -1.7% 6.7% -0.8%

New Home AffordabilitySingle Family

Median Home Price (000) 231 237 238 235 231 311 5.9% 0.3% Year to Year % Change 5.2 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.8 - - - - -Conventional Mortgage Payment ($) 895 876 - 894 870 - 1.5% -2.1%

Single Family Affordability Index (2004=100) 133 121 - 130 129 - -0.1% -0.2%

MultifamilyAverage Rent ($) 845.2 854.2 - 847 850 - 4.4% 1.1%Mortgage to Rent Ratio 1.1 1.0 - 1.06 1.03 - -2.7% -3.2%Vacancy Rate(%) - 7.6 - 6.8 7.1 - - - Apartment Dow Jones REIT Index (1990=100) 407.4 410.3 398.4 405.4 403.5 - 3.0% -2.9%

Sales Activity (000, SAAR)Total Single Family 5,237 5,454 5,553 5,415 5,307 - 7.7% 1.8%

Year to Year % Change 1.2 3.2 7.7 4.0 4.1 - - - - -Month to Month % Change (3.6) 4.1 1.8 0.8 0.5 - - - - -

Existing Single Family 4,670 4,880 4,990 4,847 4,758 - 6.6% 2.3%Year to Year % Change - 1.0 6.6 221.1 53.7 - - - - -Month to Month % Change (3.0) 4.0 2.3 75.7 17.6 - - - - -

New Single Family 567 574 563 568 549 - 17.8% -1.9%Year to Year % Change 12.3 25.6 17.8 18.6 11.9 - - - - -Month to Month % Change (8.8) 1.2 (1.9) (3.2) 1.7 - - - - -

Sales Inventory (000, SA)Total Single Family 1,882 1,943 2,003 1,943 2,013 - -2.8% 3.1%

Months Supply 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 - 0.1 -0.5Existing Single Family 1,642 1,704 1,757 1,701 1,774 - -4.3% 3.1%

Months Supply 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.43 4.5 - -0.1 -0.5New Single Family 240 239 246 242 238 - 9.3% 2.9%

Months Supply 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.30 - 0.0 -0.3

ForeclosuresCompleted Foreclosures

% Change From Last PeriodForeclosures In Process

% Change From Last PeriodSeriously Delinquent

2016 Forecast Y-O-Y Change M-O-M Change

4.0.6This Version:

Seriously Delinquent% Change From Last Period

New Modifications and Payment Plans Initiated% Change From Last Period

Starts Activity (000, SAAR)Total 1164 1,054 1,323 1180 1161 1155 23.3% 25.5%

Year to Year % Change 2.8 (11.4) 23.3 4.9 7.6 - - - - -Month to Month % Change (4.4) (9.5) 25.5 3.9 1.2 - - - - -

Single Family 724 785 869 793 773 763 21.7% 10.7%Year to Year % Change (1.0) 5.7 21.7 8.8 11.1 - - - - -Month to Month % Change (5.9) 8.43 10.7 4.4 1.4 - - - - -

Multifamily 440 269 454 388 388 392 26.5% 68.8%Year to Year % Change 9.7 (39.7) 26.5 (1.2) 2.2 - - - - -Month to Month % Change (2.0) (38.9) 68.8 9.3 2.5 - - - - -

Housing Stock (000)Existing Single Family - - - - - - - - - -

Year to Year % Change - - - - - - - - - -

Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are in Millions of 2009 dollars and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR)

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Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16

Residential Sales Activity (% Change)

Single Family Sales (000 SA) 12MMA

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Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16

Residential Starts Activity(000 SAAR)

Single Family Starts Multifamily Starts (000)

4

Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 3MMA 12MMA2016

ForecastOffice Construction Spending 64,361 64,282 62,633 63,759 58,852 18.5% 23.4% -2.6%

Office Vacancy Rate (%) - - - - - 13.0 - - Office Property Rate of Return (%) - 1.3 - 1.3% 1.8% - (1.7) (0.5) Office Dow Jones REIT Index (1990=100) 378 365 343 362 343 - 1.5% -6.0%

Year to Year % Change 24.8 16.3 1 10 3 - - - - -Office Employment (000, SA) 31,388 31,471 31,532 31,464 31,143 31,466 2.4% 0.2%

Change in Employment (000, SA) 45 83 61 63 64 - - - - -

Retail Construction Spending 54,261 53,721 53,199 53,727 52,050 8.0% 6.3% -1.0%Retail Property Rate of Return (%) - 2.0 - 2.0 2.6 - (1.1) (0.2) Retail Sales (Millions $, SA) 457,722 462,106 465,914 461,914 453,799 - 4.3% 0.8%

Year to Year % Change 2.2 3.2 4.3 - 3.0 - - - - -Retail Inventories (Millions $, SA) 605,873 607,205 - 605,042 595,482 - 3.9% 0.2%

Year to Year % Change 4.8 3.9 - - 5.0 - - - - -Retail Dow Jones REIT Index (1990=100) 406 391 354 384 380 - -5.4% -9.2%

Year to Year % Change 21.4 14.0 (5.4) 10.0 6.0 - - - - -Retail Employment (000, SA) 15,972 15,994 15,993 15,986 15,888 - 1.9% 0.0%

Change in Employment (000, SA) 17 22 (1) 12.6 24.0 - - - - -

Manufacturing Construction Spending 71,059 68,355 66,901 68,772 68,170 -3.0% -7.9% -2.1%Industrial Vacancy Rate (%) - - - - - - - - Industrial Property Rate of Return (%) - 2.9 - 2.9 3.0 - (0.8) (0.0) Industrial Capacity Utilization (%) 75.6 75.4 75.3 75.4 75.5 75.0 (0.9) (0.0) Advanced Durable Goods Orders (Millions $, SA) 232,525 234,418 234,643 233,862 233,106 - 0.2% 0.1%

Year to Year % Change (1.9) (1.1) 0.2 - (1.0) - - - - -Wholesale Trade Inventories (Millions $, SA) 444,135 444,945 - 443,352 437,769 - 0.4% 0.2%

Year to Year % Change 0.6 0.4 - (0.1) (2.7) - - - - -Manufacturing Dow Jones REIT Index (1990=100) 360 358 346 355 317 - 23.3% -3.6%

Year to Year % Change 46.0 41.6 23 - (14.0) - - - - -Manufacturing Employment (000, SA) 12,275 12,267 12,258 12,267 12,297 - -0.4% -0.1%

Change in Employment (000, SA) (16) (8) (9) (11) (4) - - - - -

Leisure & Hospitality Construction Spending 10,636 10,456 10,349 10,480 9,887 22.0% 17.0% -2.6%Tourism Sales Total (Millions $, SAAR) - - - 934,877 919,067 - 4.0% 1.6%Tourism Sales Accommodations (Millions $, SAAR) - - - 184,096 180,375 - 5.4% 2.3%Hotel Property Rate of Return (%) - 1.4 - 1.4 1.8 - (2.2) (0.1) Domestic Revenue Passenger Enplanements 63 479 64 791 59 682 1 1% 4 0%


4.0.6This Version:

Domestic Revenue Passenger Enplanements 63,479 - - 64,791 59,682 - 1.1% -4.0%International Revenue Passenger Enplanements 9,949 - - 10,148 8,760 - -1.4% -7.5%Hotel Dow Jones REIT Index (1990=100) 415 377 369 387.0 376.9 - -6.8% -2.1%

Year to Year % Change 4.2 0.7 (7) - (14.0) - - - - -Leisure Employment (000, SA) 15,548 15,555 15,565 15,556 15,441 - 2.0% 0.1%


Healthcare Construction Spending 25,031 25,214 24,737 24,994 24,106 3.0% 2.4% -1.9%Healthcare Dow Jones REIT Index (1990=100) 1,292 1,265 1,178 1,245 1,132 - 15.4% -6.9%

Year to Year % Change 28.9 21.9 15 20.0 4.0 - - - - -Healthcare Employment (000, SA) 19,227 19,249 19,288 19,254 19,048 - 2.7% 0.2%



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Real Construction PIP (Y-O-Y % Change)

Healthcare Lodging

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Real Construction PIP ( Y-O-Y) % Change)

Manufacturing Office Educational

5

Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 3MMA 12MMA ForecastPublic Construction Spending 211,607 211,878 218,284 213,923 216,848 0.7% 0.2% 3.0%

Federal Government Construction 16,985 18,068 18,068 17,241 17,168 - -2.9% 8.4% Share of Federal Construction to Total Public Construction 8.0 7.9 8.3 10.0 8.0 - -0.3% 0.4%

Federal Balance (Millions $, NSA) Federal Receipts 144,769 237,786 226,090 202,882 206,992 - -11.4% -4.9% Federal Outlays 269,970 289,540 289,548 283,019 264,218 - 22.0% 0.0% Federal Deficit\Surplus (125,201) (51,754) (63,458) (80,138) (57,225) - (81,296) (11,704)

Highway Trust Fund Disposition (Millions $, NSA) Receipts 6,508 7,053 4,659 6,073 4,532 - 68.4% -33.9% Outlays 3,230 6,338 1,012 3,527 8,662 - 26.8% -84.0% Deficit\Surplus (3,278) (715) (3,647) (2,547) 4,130 - 1 4 Reserves 68,688 64,629 63,436 65,584 56,778 - 7 (0)

Highway Trust Fund Indicators Vehicle Miles Traveled (Millions, NSA) 232,598 240,437 226,511 233,182 242,582 - -1.3% -5.8% Gas Station Retail Sales (Millions $, NSA) 29,881 26,387 26,553 27,607 40,794 - -31.4% 0.6%

Airport Trust Fund Disposition (Millions $, NSA) Receipts 1,110 590 490 730 1,112 - -49.1% -16.9% Outlays 1,049 2,036 290 1,125 1,147 - 9.0% -85.8% Deficit\Surplus (61) 1,446 (200) 395 35 - (1) (1) Reserves 12,851 13,400 14,146 13,466 13,155 - 0 0

Airport Construction Indicators (000) Domestic Revenue Passenger Enplanements 63,479 - - 64,791 59,682 - 1.1% -4.0% International Revenue Passenger Enplanements 9,949 - - 10,148 8,760 - -1.4% -7.5% Domestic Revenue Cargo Tons 876,108 - - 859,579 844,941 - 11.0% 5.9% International Revenue Cargo Tons 773,879 - - 764,022 747,452 - 9.4% 0.8%

State & Local Government Construction 194,622 195,208 200,216 196,682 199,751 - 0.5% 2.6% Share of S&L Construction to Total Public Construction 92.0 92.1 91.7 90.0 92.0 - 0.3% -0.4%

State and Local Balance (Billions $, SAAR) State & Local Receipts - 2,387 - 2,387 2,374 - 2.8% 1.9% State & Local Outlays - 2,580 - 2,580 2,544 - 2.8% 1.3% State & Local Deficit\Surplus - (193) - (171) (193) - (5) 13

Revenue Sources (Billions $, SAAR) Gross Sales Tax - 559 - 559 553 - 2.2% 1.5% Property Tax - 462 - 462 460 - 1.2% 0.3% Income Taxes - 418 - 418 412 - 3.3% 2.4% Other Revenue Sources - 949 - 949 949 - 3.7% 2.7%

M i i l B d A Yi ld (%)


Municipal Bond Average Yield (%)

20-YearAaa - - - - - -Aa - - - - - -A - - - - - -Baa - - - - - -

10-YearAaa - - - - - -Aa - - - - - -

Personal Income (Billions $, SAAR)

Total Personal Income 16,098 16,161 16,260 16,173 15,897 13,745 3.9% 0.6%Year to Year % Change 3.4 3.7 3.9 - 4.0 2.5 - - - -


-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Jun-15 Mar-16

State & Local Deficit/Surplus (Billions $ SAAR)

Implied State Deficit 4 Per. MA

3

4

5

6

7

Oct-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 Jun-16

20 Yr. Composite Municipal Bond Yield(%, Seasoned)

Composite Muni Bond Rate 12MMA

6

Economic Indicators

Residential Indicators

Nonresidential Indicators

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


Une

mploymen

t Rate

(%)

Chan

ge in

Employmen

t

(000, SA)

Employment Situation

Y-o-Y Change in Employment Unemployment Rate (%)

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

0.5%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%


Fede

ral Fun

ds Rate

(%)

Infla

tion

Rate

(Y‐O

‐Y %

Cha

nge)

Inflation Situation

Inflation (Y-o-Y % Change) Federal Funds Rate (%)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


Sing

le Fam

ily Average Hom

e Price

(000, SA

)

Total H

ousing

Starts

(000, SAAR)

Total Home Construction

Total Housing Starts (000) Median Home Price (000 SA)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%


Sing

le Fam

ily Sales

(000, SA)

30 Year Mortgage Ra

te(%

)

Single Family Sales

Mortgage Rate 30 Yr Fixed (%) Total Single Family Sales Annual % Change

Nonresidential Indicators

Public Indicators

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

August-2016 September-2016 October-2016

Dow Jones REIT Index Y‐O‐Y % Change

Health REIT Office REIT Retail REIT Hotels REIT Industrial REIT

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

August-2016 September-2016 October-2016

M‐O‐M Change in Nonresidential Employment

Healthcare Office Retail Leisure Manufacturing

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000


Airpo

rt Trust Fun

d Re

serves

(Millions $)

Airpo

rt Trust Fun

d Mon

thly Balan

ce(M

illions $)

Airport Trust Fund Balance

Airport Trust Fund Excess Airport Trust Fund ReservesAirport Trust Fund Balance Airport Trust Fund Reserves

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


Highw

ay Trust Fun

d Re

serves

(Millions $)

Highw

ay Trust Fun

d Mon

thly Balan

ce(M

illions $)

Highway Trust Fund Balance

Highway Trust Fund Excess Highway Trust Fund ReservesHighway Trust Fund Balance Highway Trust Fund Reserves

7

Residential Spending

Nonresidential Spending

Total Construction Spending

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Residential Construction (Y‐O‐Y % Change)

Total 12MMA

324

382 377

215236 251

217 218 218

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Real Total Construction Spending(Billions 2009$ SAAR)

Residential Buildings Nonresidential Buildings Public ConstructionOct-15Oct-14

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16

Total Construction Spending (Y‐O‐Y % Change)

Total 12MMAOct-16

Oct-16

176

212197

3849 52

110121 129

0

50

100

150

200

250

Real Residential Construction Spending(Billions 2009$ SAAR)

Single Family Multifamily ImprovementsOct-15Oct-14

Nonresidential Spending

Public Spending

199 199 200

18 19 180

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Real Public Construction Spending(Billions 2009$ SAAR)

Real State and Local Construction Real Federal Construction

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Nonresidential Construction(Y‐O‐Y % Change)

Nonresidential Buildings 12MMA

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%


Public Construction Spending ( Y‐O‐Y % Change)

Public Construction 12MMA

Oct-16

Oct-16Oct-15Oct-14

215236

251

98 101 99

11 10 100

50

100

150

200

250

300

Real Nonresidential Construction Spending(Billions 2009$ SAAR)

Nonresidential Buildings Public Utility & Other Farm NonresidentialOct-15Oct-14

8

Documents

Total Real Construction PIP - Portland Cement Association · Despite a dip in nonresidential capacity utilization rates in 2016 and 2017, as office worker employment rises, the capacity