Total Professeurs Associéswaste-environment.vin.bg.ac.rs/energija/presentations/R... · 2006. 10. 21. · we may add the paste or wax forms ( heavy oils, tar sands, very high viscosities

Total Professeurs Associés



Oil & Gas today and tomorrow

& what energy "mix" at the horizon 2050 ?

( nb : the views expressed here are the authors personal views )

Original author : Pierre-René BAUQUISFormer Director of strategy with TOTAL

Professor with TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associés)Associated Professor at the IFP school ( French Institute of Petroleum )

Presented by Roland GEOFFROIS TPA, former Manager of Technology Development

with TOTAL Exploration Production

nb: most background data/graphs on peakoil are from Jean LAHERRERE (ASPO)

3 october 2006

oil ( & natural gas ) :

how much ?

and for how long ??

4 october 2006

units & conversions units & conversions

1 barrel ( b ou bbl ) = 159 litres

1 Mb = 106 b ; 1 Gb = 109 b

there are 7,33 barrels in a tonne ( current average ) often rounded to 7

1 000 000 barrels = around 135 000 t = the load of a "standard" oil tanker

1 toe = 1 tonne of oil equivalent

1 Mtoe = 106 toe; 1 Gtoe = 109 toe

1 tec = 1 tonne of coal equivalent

1 toe = 1,5 tec ( approx )

1000 m3 of gas = approx. 1 toe ( = 0.9 toe)

1 m3 of LNG produces 600 m3 of gas

1 Mtoe equates approx. 11.6 Twh electricity ( energy content )

1 Mtoe produces approx. 4 Twh electricity ( 4.5 for BP vs 3.84 for IEA )( depends on efficiency of generating plant )

5 october 2006

1 barrel ( b or bbl ) = 159 litres ;

1 cf = 1 cubic foot = 28 litres ; 1 m3 = 35 cf (approx. )

1 Tcf = 1012 cf = 28 Gm3

1 Mcf= 106 cf = 1 mmcf ;

1 Mb/d = 50 Mt/an

1000 m3 of gas = approx. 1 toe ( 0.9 toe)

1 toe = 1100 m3 de gaz ; 1 Mtoe = 1.1 Gm3

1 m3 of GNL produces 600 m3 of gas

1 Gboe = 5.65 Tcf ( or 6 Tcf rounded )

units & conversions units & conversions

6 october 2006

world energy demand & supply :

historical trends

nb : main sources = IEA , BP review , Jean Lahérrère

7 october 2006

World Primary Energy Demand since 1965 World Primary Energy Demand since 1965

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

source : BP Statistical ReviewMtoe / yr

average trend = + 150 Mtoe / yr

currently 10 Gtoe / yr

(200 Mboepd )

8 october 2006

World energy mix : historical trendsWorld energy mix : historical trends

Source : BP Statistical Review

end of WW2

oil shocks

" 30 golden years "

9 october 2006

world energy mix : historical trendsworld energy mix : historical trends

10 october 2006

world world oiloil production & consumption : historical trendproduction & consumption : historical trend

OIL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION WORLD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

65

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

PRODUCTIONCONSUMPTION

Mbpd

source BP review

ie 4 Gtoe/yr or 30 Gb/yr

11 october 2006

WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTIONsource BP review

en MTep 2004 c%

OIL 3 767 37% 37%

GAS 2 420 24% 61%

COAL 2 778 27% 88%

NUCLEAR 624 6% 94%

HYDRAULIC & EnR (*) 634 6% 100%

(*) hors biomasse 10 224 100%

2004

Oil38%

Natural Gas24%

Coal26%

Nuclear Energy

6%

Hydro electric

6%

World : primary energy by sourceWorld : primary energy by source

12 october 2006


life & death of an oil / gas field

13 october 2006

typical production profile : individual field leveltypical production profile : individual field level

0

20

40

60

80

100

1201 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85

years

Production rate in % of "nominal"

Start-up phase

production cut-off

reserves = cumulative prod

decline phaseplateau

additional production = "reserve growth"

14 october 2006

life & death of the FRIGG field ( gas life & death of the FRIGG field ( gas –– North Sea )North Sea )

gas production profile – FRIGG FIELD

october 2004september 1977

15 october 2006

source IEA 2004 outlook

16 october 2006

DECLINE CURVE FOR UK NORTH SEA : source UK DOE

17 october 2006

a fossil resource, hence finite & nona fossil resource, hence finite & non--renewablerenewable

there must be an end somewhere !

we shall have consumed in 200 years what nature did for us over 200 millions years

the MINING PARADOX : the more we consume, the more we need to find additional reserves ( replacement ratio )

we destroy the stock

this can't go for ever

not to mention the growing cost of new reserves

18 october 2006

crude oil reserves :

what do we count ? and how ?

19 october 2006

back to basics & definitionsback to basics & definitions

resource vs reserve ; recovery factor

oil vs gas : a continuum

oil : conventional vs non conventional ; cost implications

technological progress ; the optimist & the pessimist

how can oil reserves really grow ?

20 october 2006

"resource" vs "reserve""resource" vs "reserve"

for a given oil field :

resource = quantity of "oil in place" =

rock volume x porosity x oil saturation =a "static" quantity, which may appear "easy" to evaluate but actually a very uncertain quantity considering the horizontal & vertical variations of rock characteristics

reserve = resource x recovery factor

= that quantity of oil which we think we can reasonably produce with current proven technologies and under current prevailing economical conditions =

a "dynamic" quantity which combines fluid mechanics in porous media ( fluid mobility ) , technology, and cost

hence even more subjective & variable with time ….. : what is not a reserve today can become a reserve tomorrow ( reserve re-evaluation )

21 october 2006

for a given field :

reserve evaluation is fundamentally an exercise in probabilitieseach element of the evaluation is given a range of possible values with probability factors the end result is classically expressed as a set of 3 figures, called P1, P2, P3 or P, PP, PPP which correspond to :

probability 90% ( P90 = "proven" ) probability 50% ( P50 = "probable" ) nb : there is often a data confusion between P90 & P50 probability 10% ( P10 = "possible" )

reserves are known with certainty only when the field is exhausted and when the production stops

we then know the ultimate reserves of that field = its cumulative production over the entire field life

during field life, reserves are periodically re-evaluated : such re-evaluations feed what is sometimes called "reserve growth"

such re-evaluations take into account the continuous improvement of techniques and field knowledge as drilling and production operations bring new data and better understanding

with "political " re-evaluations as well ….. ( OPEC, FSU, National companies )

"resource" vs "reserve""resource" vs "reserve"

22 october 2006

orders of magnitude orders of magnitude

field life typically 30 to 40 years

( = the lenght of a professional carrer !! )

recovery factor conventional oil – large range : from 10 - 20 % to 60 - 70 %– world average : currently estimated around 35 % ; – might grow toward 50% ? ( even up to 60% for the more optimistic ?? )

heavy oil / tar sands – currently a few % only ( typically less than 10 % ) – might "easily" (?) double ( or treble ?? )– large impact on world reserves : Orinoco in-place estimated at 1200/1500 Gb

and as much in Athabasca ( + 10% recovery = Saoudi reserves )

natural gas – typically around 70%– much less variable then for oil ( PV = constant )

23 october 2006

evaluation of "resource" & "reserves"evaluation of "resource" & "reserves"

evaluation of "oil in place" (OIP)

reservoir geometry ( from explo wells and seismics campaigns ) porosity oil saturation

result is very uncertain considering the lateral & vertical variations of such characteristics ( nb : a "core" represents only a minute fraction of total volume, typically 10-8 )

evaluation of "recoverable oil"

permeability, fluid mobility, residual saturation…sweep coefficient ( horizontal & vertical ) depends on geology ( rock type, stratigraphy, etc… )depends on production techniques ( eg assisted recovery techniques / "EOR" , number & type of wells, … ) decreasing returns on investment

24 october 2006

general geology / regional geology

lease acquisition

terrain geology

seismic campaign

exploration drilling

evaluation of results

decision to quit or to play again for more data

additional seismics / exploration wells

unsuccessful ( dry well ) = QUIT

successful result ( oil or gas ) = DISCOVERY OF NEW FIELD

appraisal phases ……. and ( maybe ! ) development phases …

a a typical typical exploration exploration sequence sequence

25 october 2006

understanding structural geologyunderstanding structural geology

26 october 2006

27 october 2006

28 october 2006

seismicsseismics

29 october 2006

oil vs gas oil vs gas

hydrocarbons at large ( Cn- Hn ) occur under 3 main forms in nature : solid form = coals ; originally formed on earth liquid form = crude oils ; originally formed in the sea gaseous form = natural gas

we may add the paste or wax forms ( heavy oils, tar sands, very high viscosities )

oil & gas are in a continuum ( C1 C2 C3 … ) hence there is always some gas in an oil field ( "associated gas " ) and there is always some liquids in a gas field ( "condensates" or C5+ )

more & more "condensates" are accounted with "oil" , as production and as reserves ( which is one reason for "reserve growth" )

nb : stabilised condensate is a quality product ; it can be stored and transported easily by pipelines and tankers, just like crude oil

30 october 2006

oil : "conventional" vs "non conventional"oil : "conventional" vs "non conventional"

you might also say "easy" oil vs "difficult" oil, or "cheap" oil vs "expensive" oil

conventional oil = – onshore , light, good quality, no production problems – sizeable and uniform fields – typically = "Arabian Light"

non conventional oil = – offshore, deeper & deeper ( > 2000 m ) – heavy ( d > 0.9 ), high viscosity ( waxy ) = heavy oils (Orinoco), tar sands (Athabasca)– HP, HT, acid ( H2S, CO2 ), etc…– condensates, NGL, GTL …

the frontiers change over time, due to technology and economics : – former non conventional may turn conventional today, in terms of feasibility – but the more difficult reserves are also the more expensive ones– not to mention the overall energy balance which can seriously decrease

published figures are often unclear on what is included or not included

31 october 2006

example of "non conventional" : Athabasca (Canada)example of "non conventional" : Athabasca (Canada)

32 october 2006

technological progress : some examples technological progress : some examples

former "non conventional" may turn to "conventional" eg : offshore developments going deeper and deeper ( oil & gas ), currently over 2000 m wd , made possible by the results of more than 30 years of continued industry R&D on associated problems heavy oils ( Orinoco ), tar sands ( Athabasca )HP-HT gas, acid gas ( H2S, CO2 )

improved recovery factorsdue to more sophisticated techniques, such as :

3D, even 4D seismics, S-waves interpretationlong departure wells, horizontal drains, multi drains

secondary recovery / tertiary recovery = "EOR" techniques such as water injection, gas injection, chemicals injection, in situ combustion, etc …multiphase production allowing the use of existing infrastructure for nearby marginal fields or field extensions

33 october 2006

the optimist & the pessimist the optimist & the pessimist

what the "optimist" saythe pessimist have always been wrong : we have had 40 years of reserves for the past 20 years

the non conventional progressively turns into conventional

recovery factors keep improving

technology will continue to progress and bring additional reserves

what the "pessimist" sayStill the resource is not infinite : there will be an end to it

New reserves are more & more the result of re-evaluation of known fields, less & less the result of new discoveries

There are less & less unexplored areas

For new fields, new technologies are now applied right from the start ; hence there will be less & less room for major re-evaluations

Technology does allow to tackle more & more difficult fields, but the costs are increasing in parallel, and the global efficiency tends to decrease

difference between the optimist & the pessimist : the pessimist are better informed !?

34 october 2006

exploration exploration vs vs ""reserve growthreserve growth""

technically, there are two possibilities for increasing reserves :

discovery of new fields ( previously unknown / not identified ), which is the result of a successful exploration in a geograpical area which has been unexplored or poorly explored so far ( or explored many years ago with old techniques )

"reserve growth" on existing / producing fields, which is essentially the result of a learning process ( learning curve ) as a result of a better understanding of field characteristics and field production mechanisms all along field production lifewhich translates essentially into improvement of "recovery factor"

obviously, these two cases are very different in their nature,

and, to some extent, one could say that new discoveries are the only true additions to known reserves

35 october 2006


36 october 2006

37 october 2006

conclusion : conclusion : considerable considerable uncertaintiesuncertainties

even on known fields ( re example of recovery factor for heavy oils )

even more so on "possible" reserves ( yet to find ) ( ie coming from fields not known nor identified so far, and only "guestimated" as probabilities )

quantifying world reserves is not easy

and it is difficult to make good use of published figures

38 october 2006

"proven" oil reserves :

published figures

39 october 2006

"proven" oil reserves : historical record "proven" oil reserves : historical record

OIL PROVED RESERVES in Gbbls

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1980

19

82

1984

19

86

1988

19

90

1992

19

94

1996

19

98

2000

20

02

source = BP review

1150 Gb

remaining "P90"? conventional + condensates

Gb

40 october 2006

R / P ratio : historical trend ( source BP review ) R / P ratio : historical trend ( source BP review )

41 october 2006

how can the published figures keep growing ( oil ) ?how can the published figures keep growing ( oil ) ?

real increases = technical reasons improved recovery in existing fields successful exploration in yet unexplored areas discovery of new fields, new "plays"

non real increases : differences in accountingprogressive incorporation of "non-conventional" sources incorporation of NGLs, "refinery gains" …permanent confusion between "proven" and "probable", and progressiveincorporation of probable into proven figures

non real increases : "political" reasons eg quotas (OPEC)figures inflated for good image with stock exchanges, banks, ( or for the government of concerned country )

….

42 october 2006

nb : extensive discussion of this topic is to be found in papers by Jean LAHERRERE

publishing oil / gas reserve figures is a POLITICAL act

OPEC quotas

43 october 2006


44 october 2006

"proven" world remaining reserves end 2003 : various sources

end 2003 OIL

( Gb )

GAS

( Gboe )

BP stat review 1146 1107

Oil & Gas Journal 1265 1076

World Oil 1050 1204

Cedigaz 1124

differences between sources are very sizeable

45 october 2006

reserves can be revised downward : the Mexican case reserves can be revised downward : the Mexican case

50 49

2824

17 16

1994 1995 1998 2000 2002 2003

proven Gbbls

(*) passage d’une norme mexicaine (2p?) à la norme 1p Oil and Gas Journal 23 Décembre 2002Source : BP review

46 october 2006

oil & gas reserves : where they areoil & gas reserves : where they are

Sources : O&G, Cedigaz, USGS 2000 F50, IEA

ex CIS57 / 351

Latin America96 / 46

Asia44 / 96

Africa77 / 82

Europe19 / 49North America

54 / 49

Middle East686 / 447

Conventional oil : 1030 Gboe

Gas: 1120 Gboe

"proven" reserves ( end 2003 )

• oil : proven reserves represent 40 years of ( current ) demand

• gas : proven reserves represent 60 years of ( current ) demand

47 october 2006

proven oil reserves ( conventional ) : where they are proven oil reserves ( conventional ) : where they are

OIL RESERVES BY REGION

43%

19%

5%

4%

9%

6%

1%

8%

2%

3%

S/T SaoudIrakIranS/T otherMidEastS/T MaghrebS/T BlackAfricaS/T SouthAmericaS/T NorthAmericaS/T EuropeS/T FSU&PecoS/T SouthEastAsiaS/T ChinaIndia

source = BP review

essentially 2/3 in the Middle East

48 october 2006

"proven" oil reserves : the OPEC share "proven" oil reserves : the OPEC share

source = BP review

OPEC share

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

49 october 2006


50 october 2006

oil proven reserves by company : source PIW ( 2003 ) oil proven reserves by company : source PIW ( 2003 )

Reserves OutputCompany

State-ownership Liquids (Gbbl) Liquids (Mb/d)

(%) Rank Vol. Rank Vol.

Saudi Aramco 100 1 259,4 1 9,0

NIOC 100 2 125,8 2 3,9

INOC 100 3 115,0 17 1,3

KPC 100 4 99,0 7 2,2

PDV 100 5 77,8 5 2,5

Adnoc 100 6 55,2 19 1,2

Libya NOC 100 7 22,7 23 0,9

NNPC 100 8 21,2 8 2,2

Pemex 100 9 16,0 3 3,7

Lukoil 8 10 16,0 15 1,6

Gazprom 73 11 13,6 49 0,2

Exxon Mobil 0 12 12,9 4 2,5

Yukos 0 13 11,8 16 1,6

PetroChina 90 14 11,0 10 2,1

Qatar Petroleum 100 15 11,0 28 0,7

Sonatrach 100 16 10,5 12 1,7

BP 0 17 10,1 9 2,1

Petrobras 32 18 9,8 13 1,7

ChevronTexaco 0 19 8,6 11 1,8

Total 0 20 7,3 14 1,7

Shell 0 21 7,3 6 2,3

51 october 2006

""ultimateultimate" " reserves reserves ( ( oil oil or or gas gas ))

means all the oil ( or gas ) that we shall have produced when all fields in the world have been exhausted and when all possible prospects have been explored

is a difficult exercise of "guestimates"

is obtained by adding :

cumulative production to date"proven" remaining reserves ( or P50 ? )possible reserve "growth"future ( undiscovered ) possible reserves ( unexplored areas )

52 october 2006source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000

Gb

= cumulative production + proven reserves + possible reserves yet to be discovered

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Prat

t (19

42)

Duc

e (1

946)

Poug

e (1

946)

Wee

ks (1

948)

Leve

rson

(194

9)W

eeks

(194

9)M

acN

augh

ton

(195

3)H

ubbe

rt (1

956)

Wee

ks (1

958)

Wee

ks (1

959)

Hen

dric

ks (1

965)

Rya

mn

(196

7)Sh

ell (

1968

)W

eeks

(196

8)H

ubbe

rt (1

969)

Moo

dy (1

970)

Wee

ks (1

971)

War

man

(197

2)B

auqu

is (1

972)

Schw

einf

urth

(197

3)Li

nden

(197

3)B

onill

as (1

974)

How

itt (1

974)

Moo

dy (1

975)

WEC

(197

7)N

elso

n (1

977)

De

Bru

yne

(197

8)K

lem

me

(197

8)N

ehrin

g (1

978)

Neh

ring

(197

9)H

albo

uty

(197

9)M

eyer

hoff

(197

9)R

oord

a (1

979)

Hal

bout

y (1

979)

WEC

(198

0)St

rickl

and

(198

1)C

oliti

(198

1)N

ehrin

g (1

982)

Mas

ters

(198

3)K

alin

in (1

983)

Mar

tin (1

984)

Ivan

hoe

(198

4)M

aste

rs (1

987)

Cam

pbel

l (19

91)

Mas

ters

(199

1)To

wne

s (1

993)

Petr

ocon

sult.

(199

3)M

aste

rs (1

994)

USG

S (2

000)

1940194019491949

1950195019591959

1960196019691969

1970197019791979

1980198019891989

1990199020002000

HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES

53 october 2006

the "visible" part of the iceberg indicates that the "visible" part of the iceberg indicates that reserves keep growing : no problem reserves keep growing : no problem

oil ( all liquids )

gas

R/ P in years GToe

86

52

30

48

140

140

40

65

""provenproven""oil reserves oil reserves

1973

R/ P in yearsGToe

2000

the "visible" part of the iceberg ( "proven" reserves ) the "visible" part of the iceberg ( "proven" reserves ) gives an optimistic viewgives an optimistic view

source : PR Bauquis 26-28 novembre 2000 - Global Foundation

54 october 2006

the "non visible" part of the iceberg ( ultimate reserves ) the "non visible" part of the iceberg ( ultimate reserves ) gives a different viewgives a different view

from 1973 to 2000, there has been essentially no increase in from 1973 to 2000, there has been essentially no increase in the the estimates of ultimate reservesestimates of ultimate reserves

GbblsGbbls

19731973ultimateultimate reserves reserves conventional oil conventional oil

2000 2000 -- 35003500 2000 2000 -- 35003500

20002000

source : PR Bauquis 26-28 novembre 2000 - Global Foundation

55 october 2006

USGS "2000" USGS "2000" estimateestimate of of ultimate conventionalultimate conventional reserves reserves (end 1995) (end 1995)

56 october 2006

USGS "USGS "reservereserve growthgrowth functionfunction" " ( ( publishedpublished in 2000 )in 2000 )

basedon historical record of US "lower48" andappliedto world reserves (questionable):

for a 30 yearperiodahead

basedon year 1995 as referenceyear

to obtaina P50 of ultimates

for oil, gas, & NGLs

appliedto gas withsamefactorsas for oil ( veryquestionable )

57 october 2006


58 october 2006

the "ultimate" oil reserves : summarythe "ultimate" oil reserves : summary

ultimate reserves (*) = cumulative produced end 2003 ( approx 1000 Gb ) "proven" conventional ( approx 1200 Gb ) includes liquids & condensates ( approx 100 Gb )

yet to be found ( ? ) ( 200 to 600 Gb ) heavy oils / tar sands ( 200 to 600 Gb )

ie 2600 to 3400 Gbof which ~ 1000 Gb consumed

remaining = 2000 Gb ( ultimate 3000 Gb )(*) excludes bituminous shales

59 october 2006

ConventionalResources

Non ConventionalResources

Cumulativeproduction

1000

Enhanced Recovery900 150

unrecoverable 3000

Extra Heavy OilTar Sands

maybe 3000 (in place)

new oil

Rec

over

y R

atio

Incr

ease

*35

**50

100

Rec

over

yR

atio

(%)

* Actual Average Ratio ** Possible Average Ratio (around 2020-2050 ?)

Offshore

Provenreserves

1100

futurediscoveries

350 ?

Source : IFP

resources vs reserves another picture (Gb)resources vs reserves another picture (Gb)

?

?

?

500

600 ?

?? COST

CO

ST

60 october 2006


for how long ??

61 october 2006

where are we going ?? where are we going ??

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

world oil production ( Mboe/d ) demand ?

surface = already consumed

supply ?

where are we going ?? where are we going ??

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

world oil production ( Mboe/d ) demand ?

surface = already consumed

supply ?

62 october 2006

a permanent need for more invesment to fill the gapa permanent need for more invesment to fill the gap

63 october 2006

www.oilcrisis.comwww.peakoil.com

http://www.oilcrisis.com/

http://www.peakoil.com/

64 october 2006

the "logistic" curve ( "S" curve ) the "logistic" curve ( "S" curve )

y = dérivée de 1 / ( 1 + e –t )

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

-6,0 -5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0

y = 1 / ( 1 + e –t )

65 october 2006

the Hubbert curve the Hubbert curve

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

-6,0

-5,0

-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0 0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

y = derivative of 1 / ( 1 + e –t )

66 october 2006

the Hubbert's Peak the Hubbert's Peak

red surface = "ultimate" reserves

67 october 2006

THE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTION IN THE USTHE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTION IN THE US

Discoveries(*)

Gbbl/year

Productions

(*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is « forwarded » by 33 years

Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere

years

68 october 2006

the Hubbert's Peak for US oilthe Hubbert's Peak for US oil

69 october 2006

US cumulative oil discoveries & productions US cumulative oil discoveries & productions

70 october 2006

34

39

29

7

110111

16

36

3236

20

1412

1311

58

47

24 5

7

9

15

20 23 21 2324

26 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01/05 06/10 11/15 16/20 21/25 26/30 31/35 36/40 41/45 46/50 51/55 56/60 61/65 66/70 71/75 76/80 81/85 86/90 91/95 96/00 2001 -2004 (*)

Gb/yr ( 5 yrs averages )

Classical Exploration

Deep offshore (>500m)

Kashagan / Shah Deniz

Production HC liquids

Sources:- Découvertes: IHS (hors onsh US/Canada et Shelf GoM) (mai 2005)- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (juin 2004)

(*) moyenne sur 4 ans

2.2 4.74.2

1.5

0.9

exclusive of

non conventional oils

world oil discoveries

71 october 2006

:

18

26

8

16

23

1514

23

65

52

30 0 0 0 0 1 2

6

11

6

15141311

987

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01/05 06/10 11/15 16/20 21/25 26/30 31/35 36/40 41/45 46/50 51/55 56/60 61/65 66/70 71/75 76/80 81/85 86/90 91/95 96/00 2001 -2004 (*)

(*) moyenne sur 4 ans

Gboe/yr ( 5 years average )

1.4

2.2

3.9

classical explo

deep offshoer (>500m)

Kashagan / Shah Deniz

Production HC gas

Sources:- Découvertes: IHS (hors onsh US/Canada et Shelf GoM) (mai 2005)- Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (juin 2004)

world gas discoveries

72 october 2006

in in summary summary : : we we are are opening the opening the gap ( gap ( conventional oilconventional oil ))

73 october 2006

discovery & production curves for oil & gas ( cumulative ) discovery & production curves for oil & gas ( cumulative )

74 october 2006

remaining oil reserves vs timeremaining oil reserves vs time

75 october 2006

remaining gas reserves vs timeremaining gas reserves vs time

76 october 2006

source : BP review 2004

oil : trend of R / P ratio ( source BP review ) oil : trend of R / P ratio ( source BP review )

77 october 2006

the R/P ratio ( Reserves / Production ) : what it means the R/P ratio ( Reserves / Production ) : what it means

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

world oil production ( Mbpd )

30 yrs

R/P =40 yrs

!

? ??

area = already gone ! area = remaining reserves

78 october 2006

R/P ratio : comparison between fossil fuels R/P ratio : comparison between fossil fuels

WORLD R / P source BP review PROD croissance moyenne reserves fin 2003 R / P R / P

2003 en % par an en Gtep constant à % moyen 10 ans Mtep sur 10 ans en années en années

PETROLE ( oil ) 3 697 1,50 157 42 32GAZ ( gas ) 2 357 2,25 158 67 41CHARBON ( coal ) 2 519 1,70 502 199 86total Fossiles 8 573 1,80 817 95 56

79 october 2006

R / P trends R / P trends

80 october 2006

possible production profiles possible production profiles

horizon 2050horizon 2050

81 october 2006

theoretical Hubbert curves for 2000 & 3000 Gbbl ultimate

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

16019

50

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

Mbpd

3000 Gb

2000 Gb

???

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

16019

50

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

Mbpd

3000 Gb

2000 Gb

???

82 october 2006

theoretical Hubbert curves for 2000 / 3000 / 4000 Gbbl utheoretical Hubbert curves for 2000 / 3000 / 4000 Gbbl ultimate ltimate

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

18019

50

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

Mbpd

3000 Gb

2000 Gb

???

4000 Gb

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

18019

50

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

Mbpd

3000 Gb

2000 Gb

???

4000 Gb

83 october 2006

source = Campbell

84 october 2006

Forecast of all liquids production with an ultimate of 3 Tb

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

year

past CP=950 GbU=3000 Gbsingle cycle 2500 Gb

World ultimates (Gbbls) :World ultimates (Gbbls) :-- oil : 2150 oil : 2150 -- condensates / NGL : 250condensates / NGL : 250-- non conventional: 500non conventional: 500-- misc. : 150misc. : 150

TOTAL : ~ 3000 GbblsTOTAL : ~ 3000 Gbbls

oil peak : 90 Mb/j in 2015

Hubbert peak with 3000 Gb ultimate reserves Hubbert peak with 3000 Gb ultimate reserves

Source : Jean Laherrere

85 october 2006

86 october 2006

oil peak

87 october 2006

Hubbert curves for oilHubbert curves for oil

88 october 2006

Hubbert curves for gasHubbert curves for gas

89 october 2006

Hubbert peaks all fossil fuels ( source J. LahHubbert peaks all fossil fuels ( source J. Lahéérrrrèère )re )

90 october 2006


the IEA outlook

91 october 2006

peak or no peak : that is the question !peak or no peak : that is the question !

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

18019

50

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

Mbpd

3000 Gb

2000 Gb

???

4000 Gb

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

18019

50

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

Mbpd

3000 Gb

2000 Gb

???

4000 Gb

92 october 2006

oil price record since 1860oil price record since 1860

Source : BP Statistical Review et IFP

93 october 2006

oil price tomorrow : new cycle or rupture ?oil price tomorrow : new cycle or rupture ?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

$/b

Guerre du Kippour

Nationalisationdes champs

pétroliersDomination

OPEP

RévolutionIranienne

ConflitIran/Irak

Politiquedes quotas

ContratsNetbacks

ConflitIrak/Koweit

Interventionen Irak

contrechoc1er choc

2ème choc

?

94 october 2006

conclusions ( keeping in mind the uncertainties )conclusions ( keeping in mind the uncertainties )

expect an oil peak between 2010 et 2030

at a "plateau" level between 100 Mb/j & 120 Mb/j

world oil production will thereafter go on decline

the price of oil will keep growing on the long term( as an average, but probably on a chaotic pattern )

95 october 2006

the future energy "mix"

outlook 2050 – 2100

96 october 2006

oil equivalences oil equivalences

EQUIVALENCES

M barils / jour G barils / an G Tep / an

50 18 2,560 22 3,070 26 3,580 29 4,090 33 4,5

100 37 5,0110 40 5,5120 44 6,0130 47 6,5140 51 7,0150 55 7,5

97 october 2006

some consideration on the

energy mix

98 october 2006

Gas vs Oil Gas vs Oil

advantages

a "younger" form of energyuntil the 70, finding gas was of no interestproven reserves have been less exploited so far, and there is a greater hope to find "new plays"but ... gas consumption is growing fast ...

a "cleaner" form of energycommercial gas has very little "poisons" relatively less CO2 emitted

drawbacks

the gazeous state makes it a less dense energy at Patm ( by a factor 1000 ) , hence : infrastructures for production, transport, storage, distribution are more expensive major pipelines are geopolitically vulnerabletransport over long distance is capital intensive, as it requires either major pipelines ( gas is compressed at 70 or 140 bars ) or LNG chains ( gas is liquefied at – 162°C )there is little room for reserve re-evaluation ( for known fields ) because of the essentially constant recovery factor

99 october 2006

energy source vs energy vectorenergy source vs energy vector

a clear distinction must be made between :

energy sources :fossil sources

– crude oil, gas , coal, uranium

renewable sources– hydraulic, sun, wind, geothermal, biomass

energy vectors :electricity, hydrogen, "fuel cells", or energy chains such as GNL-GTL-CTL– where several aspects must be taken into account in the overall ( "well to wheel" )

balance, such as energetic efficiency of the whole chain, logistics for storage & transport, and overall costs ( including production, storage and distribution )

beware of « shadok cycles », ie energy supply chains which consume a significant proportion of the gross production ( poor overall efficiency )

100 october 2006

the concept is simple :

for each energy form, how much energy can be delivered by a unit of volume or a unit of mass ?

in that respect, energy sources are not equal :

1. nuclear energy ( highly concentrated )

2. fossil fuels ( concentrated )

3. RES ( diffuse )

a key concept : energetic compacity

101 october 2006

consequences

on machine sizescf size of a wind turbine vs a seawater turbine

Source : G. Ruelle (Académie des Technologies) Janvier 2003

on land occupationto produce 1 Twh of electricity, the requirement in terms of ground area needed :

less than 0.5 km² for a nuclear or thermal plant

around 5 km² for a hydraulic plant

over 50 km² for wind farm

over 500 km² for biomass

102 october 2006

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

liquid HCat atmos T & P

CNG

Hydrogen

Hydrures

Batteries

Gaz naturel comprimé : réservoir acier ou composite

kWh / l

kWh / kg

liquid HC : an unrivalled energy form

103 october 2006

liquid HC : an unrivalled energy form

liquidHC will remainfor long themain energy vector for the transport function

intrinsic advantages:

liquidstate atnormal P & T remarquable energeticcompacityeasystorage& transport existinginfrastructures

"only" drawback = CO2 emission

104 october 2006

electricity

105 october 2006


106 october 2006


107 october 2006


108 october 2006


109 october 2006


110 october 2006


111 october 2006


112 october 2006


113 october 2006

Primary energy consumption FrancePrimary energy consumption France

PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION France

source DGEMP

en MTep 2003 c%

OIL 94 34% 34%

GAS 39 14% 48%

COAL 14 5% 52%

Nucléaire 115 41% 94%

EnR 18 6% 100%

280 100%

OIL34%

GAS14%COAL

5%

EnR6%

Nucléaire 41%

114 october 2006

Electrical production EDF ( France 2003 )Electrical production EDF ( France 2003 )

PRODUCTION EDF en 2003 totale en TWh 491dont

nucléaire 85,7%hydraulique 9,3%

95,0%

charbon 3,3%fioul 1,3%gaz 0,3%

4,9%

biomasse 0,1%100,0%

hydraulique 9%

nucléaire86%

fossiles5%

115 october 2006


116 october 2006

CO2 emissions CO2 emissions

117 october 2006


source DGEMP

118 october 2006


source DGEMP

119 october 2006

the demand side :

world energy demand =

population x toe per capita

120 october 2006

primary energy demand : outlook according to various sourcprimary energy demand : outlook according to various sources es

121 october 2006

World oil demand 2002World oil demand 2002--20202020

0.3 %0.3 %

1.1 %1.1 %

1.7 %1.7 %

2.5 %2.5 %

2.2 %2.2 %

Annual growth2002 - 2020

Transport

Petrochemical

Non-energy use

Fuels heating

Power station

Source : AIE World Energy Outlook 2004World oil demandMillions of b/d

+ 1.8 % / year

+ 1.8 % / year

2002 2020

77

107

59 %59 %

55 %55 %

21%21%24 %24 %

50

66

1971 1990

28 %28 %39 %39 %

50 %50 %40 %40 %

122 october 2006

1971 1990 2002

3535

4646

1919

29 %29 % 36 %36 %23 %23 %

44 %44 %

2020

7272

+ 2.5 % / y

ear

+ 2.5 % / y

ear

41 %41 %34 %34 %

47 %47 %

31 %31 %26 %26 %

26 %26 %

28 %28 %

21 %21 %

Natural gas demand 2002 Natural gas demand 2002 --20202020

Source : AIE World Energy Outlook 2004

Annual growth2002 - 2020

+ 3.6 %+ 3.6 %

+ 2.5 %+ 2.5 %

+ 1.8 %+ 1.8 %Heating

Petrochemicals

ResidentialServices

Industry

Power plants

World gas demandMillions of boe/d

123 october 2006


the China casethe China case

124 october 2006

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

China : imported crude oil already over 50% of demand China : imported crude oil already over 50% of demand

Production Demand

China crude oil : domestic Production vs demand

selfsufficiency

Source : AIE

Imports= 50% of demand

7

0

3

2

1

5

4

7

6

Mb/j

125 october 2006


126 october 2006


127 october 2006


128 october 2006

world oil demand to date world oil demand to date

OIL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION WORLD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

65

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

PRODUCTIONCONSUMPTION

Mbpd

source BP review

4 GTep/yr or 30 Gb/yr

129 october 2006


130 october 2006

world population : outlook 2050world population : outlook 2050

Gh source UN 2004

131 october 2006

Source : AIE

energy consumption per capita ( toe/h )

GDP per capita (k$1995 PPP)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

period covered 1960-2001 or 1971-2001

WORLD

EUROPE JAPAN

CANADA

US

INDIACHINA

KOREA

energy consumption per capita energy consumption per capita

132 october 2006

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

source : IEAoil consumption per capita 1960-2001* (t/yr)

PIB per capita (k$1995 PPP)*: Monde, Chine et Inde 1971-2001

WORLD

EUROPE

JAPAN

US

CHINA

S COREA

INDIA

1978

19821960

2001

world oil consumption per capitaworld oil consumption per capita

133 october 2006

134 october 2006

135 october 2006

the supply side

136 october 2006


137 october 2006


138 october 2006

Source : P. BAUQUISRevue de l’Énergie, 50 ans, n° 509 Sept. 99

20002000

GtoeGtoe %%

20202020

GtoeGtoe %%

20502050

GtoeGtoe

oiloilgasgascoalcoal

3.73.72.12.12.22.2

404022222424

5.05.04.04.03.03.0

404027272020

3.53.54.54.54.54.5

202025252525

%%

Total fossil fuels Total fossil fuels 8.08.0 8686 12.012.0 8787 12.512.5 7070

RESRES 0.70.7 7.57.5 11 6.56.5 1.51.5 8 8

nuclearnuclear 0.60.6 6.56.5 11 6.56.5 44 2222

Total all sourcesTotal all sources 9.39.3 100.0100.0 14.014.0 100.0100.0 18.018.0 100.0100.0

world energy mix outlook 2000-2020-2050 (authors view)

commercial energy only

139 october 2006

20002000

GtepGtep %

20502050

GtepGtep %

21002100

GtepGtepoiloil

gasgascoalcoal

3.73.72.12.12.22.2

402224

3.53.54.54.54.54.5

202525

1.51.52.02.04.54.5

69

20

%

Total fossil fuels Total fossil fuels 8.08.0 86 12.512.5 70 8.08.0 35

RESRES 0.70.7 7.5 1.51.5 8 3.03.0 13

nuclear nuclear 0.60.6 6.5 44 22 1212 52

Total all sources Total all sources 9.39.3 100.0 18.018.0 100.0 23.023.0 100.0

world energy mix outlook 20002000--20502050--2100 2100 (authors view)

Source : P. BAUQUISCahiers économiques IFPOctobre 2004

140 october 2006

primary energy sources (world) : 1950 - 2050

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1970 2000 2010 2020 2030

Charbon

Pétrole

Gaz naturel

Nucléaire

Hydraulique

EnR (sauf hydro.)

the IEA view

141 october 2006

primary energy sources (world) : 1950 - 2050

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1950 60 70 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 2050

Charbon

EnR (sauf hydro.)

Pétrole

Gaz naturel

Hydraulique

Nucléaire

the authors view

142 october 2006

conclusions 1 ( conclusions 1 ( withwith due caution for due caution for uncertaintiesuncertainties ))

1. oil & gas still have a long future ahead …but the reserves cannot be indefinitely renewed

2. oil production will peak sometime between 2010 & 2030 at a level somewhere between 100 & 120 Mbpd ; gas peak will follow about 20 years later

3. the cost of oil will continue to increase ( as a long term trend )

4. the share of nuclear electricity will necessarily have to beincreased, as well as the share of coal

5. the share of RES will also increase, but RES will neverthelessremain marginal contributors to the global energy mix

6. liquid HC will be difficult to replace as transport fuel and chemical base

143 october 2006

conclusions 2 : conclusions 2 : whatwhat cancan wewe do ?do ?

1. save, save, and save energy ( NEGAwatts)

2. use efficient energy chains ( eg combined heat & elec plants )

3. improve recovery of heavy oils / tar sands

4. work on CO2 capture & sequestration

5. "electrify" the consumptions

6. develop nuclear and coal fueled electrical power plants, ( while working to mitigate known drawbacks )

7. reserve oil for its best usages ( transport fuel and petrochem base )

8. develop hybrid vehicles and all other transport system which do not need oil ( eg trucks on trains, biofuels )

9. etc …

Documents

Total Professeurs Associéswaste-environment.vin.bg.ac.rs/energija/presentations/R... · 2006. 10. 21. · we may add the paste or wax forms ( heavy oils, tar sands, very high viscosities