TOPICS for Inter Econ Assignment 2010

8/8/2019 TOPICS for Inter Econ Assignment 2010

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TOPICS for Inter Econ Assignment Chn mt sn phm xut khu ca Vit nam vo th trng EU, Hoa

k hoc Nht bn phn tch cc chnh sch doanh nghip cn thchin vt qua ro cn k thut ca nc nhp khu.

T nhng cam kt c th ca chnh ph, hy phn tch thun li v

kh khn ca mt ngnh hng xut khu nng sn hoc sn phmthm dng lao ng sau khi Vit nam gia nhp WTO. Phn tch cc li th nh v ca Vit nam so vi cc quc gia

ASEANs hoc Trung Quc trong chnh sch hp thu FDI t cc qucgia OECD.

Chn mt sn phm hng thm dng lao ng ca Vit nam phn tchnh hng ca ACFTA i vi thnh tch xut khu ca doanhnghip.

Lao ng r c nn xem l li th ca Vit nam so vi ASEAN vTrung Quc trong vic thu ht FDI hay khng?

SAMPLE in EnglishFDI and Employment Creation in Pacific

Island Countries: An empirical study of Fiji

ByT.K. Jayaraman* Baljeet Singh

Executive Summary Among the 14 Pacific island countries (PICs), Fiji, with its relatively better endowments in land and human

resources as well as physical infrastructure, has been one of the ten favourite destinations of foreign directinvestment (FDI) in Asia-Pacific. Past studies confirm that FDI contributed to economic growth of Fiji.

This paper undertakes an econometric study of the impact of FDI in Fiji during a 30-year period.

The policy implications of the study are that Fiji should continue not only its current proactive policies toattract FDI inflows but also maintain appropriate environment including political stability for retaining theinflows. Past negative net inflows in the immediate years after the two coups of 1987 and in 2000 wereclearly due to poor domestic investor confidence. Further, with a view to improve the employment databaseespecially in regard to FDI related activities, we suggest that the Fiji Trade and Investment Bureau (FTIB),which is the screening and appraising authority, should stipulate while approving the FDI proposal thatoverseas investors should file returns on employment

1. Introduction

A large body of empirical literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) in developingcountries in various regions, including the Asia-Pacific region has shown that FDIssocial and distributional impact on the host country has been generally favourable (Hilland Athukorala 1998, Sun 1998, Sun 1996, Jansen 1995, Athukorala and Menon,1995,Schive 1990)


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A recent study by Asian Development Bank (2004) emphasizes the need for appropriatepolicies for regional development, besides the importance of flexibility in labour markets,for exploiting the forward and backward linkages provided by FDI.Our paper focuses on the Pacific island countries (PICs)1. The objective of this paper isto undertake an empirical study on creation of employment opportunities by FDI in Fiji.

The choice of Fiji, as case study, is dictated mainly by data constraints relating toavailability of reliable time series of a longer period compared to other PICs.The paper is organised on the following lines: in section 2, trends in FDI and employmentin Fiji are reviewed; section 3 deals with the data and methodology adopted for theempirical study, while section 4 presents the results of the study; and the final section 6lists some conclusions with policy implications.

2. Literature review

Among PICs, Fiji, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu have been attractive countriesfor FDI for past two decades. All the three PICs were among the top 10destinations for FDI in developing Asia-Pacific region (Table 1).

Table 1: Top 10 Destinations for FDI in Developing Asia: 1991-1993 and 1998-2000( Average Inflows per capita in US$) Insert Table1 here

Source:Asian Development Bank (2006) Past trends

The term FDI would normally refer to substantial equity stake and effectivecontrol of enterprises. However, in the context of growing services sector indeveloping countries, a broader definition seems to have been emerging. This

now refers to non-equity participation by foreigners by way of licensing,franchising, joint ventures with limited equity participation and R&D cooperation(de Mello 1997).

In FDI approach, most of the FDI inflows to PICs in the past were primarily ofthe natural resource exploiting type. These natural resource based FDI inflowswere later on followed in the 1980s by FDI in export-oriented, labour intensivegarments and other industries due to deliberate policies (Jayaraman and Choong2005, Gani 1999). The third type of investment, known as market seeking, wasmainly limited to retail trade, as the populations of PICs were small.

Table 3 provides FDI flows to Fiji in US million dollars during the recent period(1985-2002) as well as in percent of GNP. The stock of FDI in 2002 is reported tobe US$1,211 million, which is around 66% of GNP (United Nations ConferenceTrade and Development 2006). The FDI flows were highly susceptible to politicalconditions as evidenced by their decline soon after the 1987 and 2000 coups.

Table 3: FDI Inflows to Fiji : 1985-2002


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(U$ Million and % of GNP)Source: World Bank 2006a

3. Data and Methodology

The estimation procedure of the empirical study, which covers a 34-year period (1970-2003), is constrained by data inadequacies4.Data : as noted by a recent study (Asian Development Bank 2004), accurate estimates ofFDI stock are rarely available in the Asia-Pacific region. One has to depend upon the FDInet inflow data, despite the fact that they are poorly recorded.Modeling and methodology : we hypothesize that annual employment is positivelyassociated with annual FDI inflows. Since annual employment is also dependent oneconomic growth, we also hypothesize that employment in FDI activities is also directlyinfluenced by gross domestic product (GDP).

4. Result of Study

Unit root test : our first step was to investigate the unit root properties of the data series.Although it is recognised that the knowledge on the integrational properties is not

required for the application of the bounds test, it is a crucial step in ensuring that weobtain an unbiased estimation from the Granger causality tests.Cointegration : Our next aim is to investigate whether Y, FDI and L share common long-run relationships. To achieve this, as explained earlier, we test for the presence of long-run relationships in Equations (1)-(3).Long-run estimates : Having found the existence of a long run relationship in theEquation with L as dependent variable and FDI and GDP, as explanatory variables, wenow proceed to estimate the long run marginal effect.

5. Conclusion and Policy Recommendation

The paper investigated the relationship between employment and foreign direct

investment for Fiji through a multivariate modeling strategy by including GDP. Weproceeded in four steps. First, we subjected the data series real GDP, real foreign directinvestment net inflows and employment to ADF tests in order to ascertain the nature ofstationarity properties of the variables.We found that there were two cointegration relationships among the variables whenformal sector employment and GDP were the endogenous variables. This finding pavedthe way for estimating marginal effect on the impact of foreign direct investment andGDP on employment, which we investigated in the third step.Based on the findings of the study, we recommend that Fiji should continue not only itscurrent proactive policies to attract FDI inflows but also maintain appropriateenvironment including political stability for retaining the inflows.

Referrences

Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2005. Special Chapter on Labour Markets inAsia: Promoting Full, Productive and Decent Full Employment,Key Indicators

2005, Manila; ADB.

ADB (2004). Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Asia, Part 1,AsianDevelopment Outlook, 2004, , Manila; ADB.


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Athukorala, P. and J.Menon (1005). Developing with Foreign Investment inMalaysia, The Australian Economic Review, Ist Quarter, 9-22.

Atkins, F.J. and Coe, P.J. (2002). An ARDL Bounds Test of the Long-RunFisher Effect in the United States and Canada,Journal of Macroeconomics, 24,

255-266.

De Mello, Jr., L.R., (1997) Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries:A Selective Survey, The Journal of Development Studies, 34 (1): 1-34.

Elek, A., H. Hill, and Tabor, S., (1993). Liberalization and Diversification in aSmall Island Economy: Fiji since the 1987 Coups, World Development, 21(5):

749-769.

Engel, R.F. and Granger, C. W. J., (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction

Representation, Estimation and Testing.Econometrica, 55, 251-276.

Gosaraevski, S., H. Hughes and S. Windybank, (2004). The Pacific is Viable,Issue Analysis No.43, Canberra: Centre for Independent Studies.

Hill, H. and Athukorala, P. (1998). Foreign Investment in East Asia,Asia-Pacific Economic Literature, 12(2): 23-50.

Hughes, H., (2003).Aid has Failed the Pacific, Issue Analysis No.33, Canberra:Centre for Independent Studies

Jansen, K.(1995). The Macroeconomic Effects of Direct Foreign Investment:The Case of Thailand, World Development, 23(2): 183-210.

Jayaraman, T.K. and Choong, C.K. (2006). Foreign Direct Investment in theSouth Pacific Island Countries: A Case Study of Fiji. World Review of

Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, 2 (4), 309-322

Sun, H.(1998). Macroeconomic Impact of Direct Foreign Investment in China:1979-1996 , The World Economy, 21(5): 675-694.

World Bank (2006a).Global Development Finance 2006Volume 2: CountryTables, Washington, D.C: World Bank.

World Bank (2006b).World Development Indicators 2006, CD-ROM, Washington,D.C. : World Bank.


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Acceptale Structure ti T cc cam kt c th gia Vit nam v WTO,dng l thuyt hi nhp phn tch thun li v thch

thc ngnh sn xut Thp trong nc sau khi gia nhpWTO.

BYNguyn.& L.

Tm tt bi vit Tm lc vit khong 100 t Vit thnh mt paragraph Nhng khm ph chnh/ng gp ca tc gi T kha ca bi vit

Th d:Bi vit ny s dng PPhp tim

Cc chnh sch khuyn ngh gm

IGii thiu

Mc ch ca bi vit :Gii quyt cc vn v ngnh sn xut vxut khu thp Vit Nam ang phi i din nh.

Lm r nhng g m cc tc gi khc lm v nhng g m tc gi dkin lm. Th d Cc bi vit trc y (past studies) only cp.Trong khi thp l sn phm ph thuc nhiu vo nguyn liu ncngoi vn cha thy c tc gi no ch trng..

ngha ca vic nghin cu (significances): Tm quan trng ca vn nghin cu (khi qut ha). Ti sao li chon ti ny ? (thp lngnh cng nghip xut khu c kim ngch ln nhng ph thucnhiu vo nguyn liu nhp khu t Nga v Trung Quc or Tranh lunang gay gt hin nay l chnh ph c nn h tr doanh nghip thptrong nc khng? Or tc gi cn lm r cc tranh lun hin nay Quc hi Or something like that.


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+ Gii hn nghin cu: Th d t 1993-2008, v ch xt vng ng Nam B,.do s liu thu thp hn ch+ Phng php nghin cu: (empirical or non-empirical)

Thng k m t (s dng vi kim nh chisquared): S dng bngthng k mt chiu, hai chiu, ba chiu tr li cc cu hi nghincu bng s liu v a ra cc kt qu s b (xu th, tng quan, cch vn hnh). Mc tiu l kim nh s b gi thit nghin cu

So snh (before after approach) Phn tch tng quan, ma trn tng quan v ngha thng k. Phn tch hi quy (Regression analysis) Phn tch chui thi gian (ARIMA) M hnh ha (modeling approach) Phn tch thnh t (Factor analysis)

iu tra (survey) SWOT, PEST,

+ Cu hi cn gii p(research questions): Phi tr li trong sut bi vit Ti a l t 3 n 4 cu hi Phi l s nh i/la chn hn l cu tr li c bit trc

+ Gi thit ca bi vit (hypotheisis) Phi c t sau cu hi nghin cu

Gi nh c xy dng trn vn nghin cu v khung l thuyt L cu hi m ch c hai la chn l c hay khng? (Yes/No)

1.Ti sao sn lng xut khu thp giai on 2001-2009 suy gim?2. Vic ct gim thu quan nhp khu sau khi gia nhp WTO c hoc khngc tc ng n sn lng thp xut khu?3. Nhn t no trong ngn hn v di hn s nh hng n kh nng phchi sn lng?

+ Ngun s liu:

S liu s cp (primary data) Do nh nghin cu thu thp theo mc ch nghin cu

ca h Thu thp s liu theo mt phng php nht nh (phng

vn ly kin c nhn) Thu thp d liu kim nh cc gi thit nghin cu


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S liu th cp (secondary data) Nhanh v t tn km, nhng pha tm ngun ph

hp (VHLSS, WB, IMF, ADB, GSO, UNDP,).

+ B cc ca bi vit : bi ny gm 5 phn, tip theo phn gii thiul phn tm tt l thuyt kinh t quc t, trong cc l thuyt vhi nhp s c cp, ....

IIL thuyt kinh t quc t Khng nn l mt chng lit k, m t hay tm lc cc l thuyt;

m phi l tranh ci, bin lun, ph phn hay so snh mt cch hthng cc l thuyt.

Phi nhn nhn vn hn 1 mt ca n.

Kh nng p dng ca khung l thuyt n vn nghin cu Phi trch dn ngun ti liu tham kho cn thn.

1. Hi nhp kinh t2/ T chc WTO

+ Gii thiu v t chc WTO :+ Tin trnh m phn gia nhp WTO ca Vit Nam+ Cam kt gia Vit nam v WTO

3/ Tnh hnh sn xut v xu hng xut khu thp trong nhng nm gn ytrn th gii v Vit Nam .

+ Thun li khi Vit Nam gia nhp WTO trong lnh vc cng nghipm c th l thp

Phn l thuyt cp n di dng, nn vo phn ph lc.III Nhng phng hng gii php pht trin ngnh sn xut v xutkhu thp nc ta.

y l phn ng gp chnh ca bi vit Khng dng trch dn a ra mt l l hay nhn nh ca chnh

mnh. Th d thay li phn tich bi vit xin nu pht biu ca

GSTS H c Hng: ng vi coi lao ng r l l th so snh caVit nam! Khng kt ni cc trch dn li to thnh l l ca mnh Cc bng biu a vo phi c s dng phn tch, nu bng biu di

khong t trang giy tr ln, nn vo phn ph lc ngi ctin theo di b cc ton bi vit.


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Nu thng tin v ti liu tham kho phi y ngi c c thtruy xut c tt c cc ti liu.

Cn c s thng nht trong cch ghi trch dn v ti liu tham kho. C nhiu dng trch dn: Harward, Chicago, APA. Nu s liu hay trch dn bo co ca HSBC th phi ghi l: (HSBC,

2010:42). Khi trch dn tng ca mt tc gi, m tng ny trch dn t

mt tc gi khc, bn phi ghi l: Balassa (1996), trch trong Dunning(1999)

T internet th ghi Kelly. C, (1997) David Kolb, The Theory ofExperiential Learning and ESL , The Internet TESL Journal,September, Vol. III, No. 9 (online) http://iteslj.org/Articles/Kelly-Experiential/ (ngy truy cp 26/4/2010)

IV Kt qu nghin cua. Bi vit ny tm c (the main finding of this paper)....

b. Chnh sch khuyn ngh (policy recommendations)

c. Cc nghin cu tip theo (suggestion for further studies)

Ti liu tham kho Khi c nhiu tc gi th phi sp xp theo th t ABC: Bela (2009),

Karen (1996), Krugman (2009), . Phi sp xp theo th t tn ca tc gi, nm xut bn, tn bi vit,

ni xut bn, nh xut bn Author, A. (year) Title, Location, Publisher. Tn cun sch c in ch nghin v gch ch bn di.

Hong Th Chnh, Nguyn Ph T, Nguyn Hu Lc (2008) Gio Trnh Kinh t Quc t, Ti bnln 4, NXB Gio Dc.

Hong th Chnh v cc tc gi (2008)Bi tp Kinh T Quc T, NXB Thng K.
http://iteslj.org/Articles/Kelly-Experiential/http://iteslj.org/Articles/Kelly-Experiential/http://iteslj.org/Articles/Kelly-Experiential/http://iteslj.org/Articles/Kelly-Experiential/


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Krugman, P. R. v Obstfeld M (1996) Kinh t hc quc t L thuyt v chnh

sch, tp I Nhng Vn V Thng Mi Quc t NXB Chnh Tr Quc Gia,

Nguyn Vn Sn (2008) L thuyt & Chnh Sch Thng Mi Quc t NXB

Thng K

Nguyn Ph T (2007) L thuyt & Chnh Sch Thng Mi Quc t, NXB

Thng K

Trng nh Tuyn (2007) Tc ng ca vic gia nhp T chc Thng mi

Th gii v hi nhp kinh t quc t n s pht trin kinh t x hi ca Vit

nam Dng th Bnh Minh (Bin tp)nh Hng ca vic gia nhp WTO i

vi nn kinh t Vit nam, NXB Tng Hp TP HCM.

Yang, J. (2005) Hc bng cch thc hnh: tc ng ca mt v kin khc phc

thng mi ti Hn quc Pham duy T & an ph Thnh (Bin tp), Gii

quyt nhng thch thc khi gia nhp WTO, cc trng hp in cu, NXB Tr

MPI (2004), Chnh sch bn ph gi v bin php chng bn ph gi, H ni.

L th Thy Vn, Nguyn th Mi(2007) Vit nam vi bi ton chng bn ph

gi trong thi k hu WTO Dng th Bnh Minh (Bin tp),nh Hng ca

vic gia nhp WTO i vi nn kinh t Vit nam, NXB Tng Hp TP HCM.

Hussain, T. (2005) Thng li v nguyn tc: v kin gii quyt tranh chp ca

Pakistan v hng si bng chi xut khu sang Hoa k Pham duy T & an

ph Thnh (Bin tp), Gii quyt nhng thch thc khi gia nhp WTO, cc

trng hp in cu, NXB Tr

Oktaviani, R. v Erwidodo (2005) Xut khu tm ca Indonesia: p ng

thch thc v tiu chun cht lng Pham duy T & an ph Thnh (Bin

tp), Gii quyt nhng thch thc khi gia nhp WTO, cc trng hp in

cu, NXB Tr

W B (2002) Ton Cu Ha Tng Trng v Ngho i, NXB Vn Ha- Thng

Tin.

Jackson, J. H. (2001) H Thng Thng Mi Th Gii Lut V Chnh Sch V

Cc Quan H Kinh T Quc T, NXB Thanh Nin.

Salvatore, D. (2007), International Economics, 6th Edition, Routledge.

Hill, C. W. (2009) International Business Competing in the Global

Marketplace, 7th Edition, McGraw-Hill.

Krugman, P. and Obstfeld, M. (2006), International Economics Theory and

Policy, 6th International Edition.


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Chacholiades, M. (2002), International Economics, McGraw-Hill.

Markusen, R. J. et al (1995) International Trade Theory and Evidence.

McGraw-Hill.

Appleyard, R. D. Alfred J. Field Jr (1995) International Economics Trade

Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition. Richard D. Irwin, INC.

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TOPICS for Inter Econ Assignment 2010