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Top Mega Trends in Russia##1ContentsEconomy: Russia Beyond Moscow - The Next Game Changers, Economic Engines for GrowthRussias economic hotspots cities, regionsSources of economic growth industries, products, servicesDiversification away from oil and gas towards innovative economySocial Trends: Prosperity, Education and Social MobilityGrowing purchasing power of population and emergence of middle class; Social mobilityHigher demand for intangible products entertainment, services, investmentEducation Federal Universities, National research centresSolid technical knowledge vs. lack of managerial skills in RussiaHealthcare as a National Security Doctrine: Health, Wellness and WellbeingFrom treatment to preventionNational drug manufacturingTelemedicine and e-healthcareHealth insurance and private healthcare#2ContentsUrbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega CorridorsMoscow Big City projectVladivostok mega hub in the Far EastFor discussion: Moscow - St. Petersburg Mega Corridor? (Mumbai-Delhi case-study)Infrastructure Development: the Silk Road of Modern Age and BeyondEurope-Western China Highway: Russia Kazakhstan ChinaDevelopment of Trans-Siberian Railway and era of high-speed railRegional air traffic growth and new aviation hubs drivers and restraintsModern RussiaModernization of obsolete infrastructure and manufacturing capacitiesE-government / e-services as an alternative to paperwork of the Soviet eraBack to RussiaLocalization of manufacturing in Russia hi-tech alternative to mass production in AsiaReverse brain drain#3ContentsKey Technology DevelopmentsBiotech (e.g. targeted drug delivery), nanotech, energy (e.g. floating nuclear station), LED lightingTechnology leapfrogging (e.g. from 2G to 4G/LTE)Satellite technology for traffic management, weather controlHybrid and electric vehiclesSmart is the New GreenSmart meters, smart buildings, smart grid and smart citiesOther applications - smart traffic-lights, smart bandages, etc.Mega Events Investments, infrastructure and technology, Russia brand promotion, mass sport industry:APEC Summit (Vladivostok, 2012)Winter Olympics (Sochi, 2014)Formula 1 Grand Prix (Sochi, 2014)Soccer World Cup (2018)#4Mega Trends for Skolkovo working groupsSocial Trends: Prosperity, Education and Social MobilityGrowing purchasing power of population and emergence of middle class; Social mobilityHigher demand for intangible products entertainment, services, investmentEducation Federal Universities, National research centresSolid technical knowledge vs. lack of managerial skills in RussiaUrbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega CorridorsMoscow Big City projectVladivostok mega hub in the Far EastFor discussion: Moscow - St. Petersburg Mega Corridor? (Mumbai-Delhi case-study)Modern RussiaModernization of obsolete infrastructure and manufacturing capacitiesE-government / e-services as an alternative to paperwork of the Soviet eraBack to RussiaLocalization of manufacturing in Russia hi-tech alternative to mass production in AsiaReverse brain drainMega Events Investments, infrastructure and technology, Russia brand promotion, mass sport industry:APEC Summit (Vladivostok, 2012)Winter Olympics (Sochi, 2014)Formula 1 Grand Prix (Sochi, 2014)Soccer World Cup (2018)

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Guidelines and useful hints

#GuidelinesApproach and methodology: create hypothesis based on economical, statistical data, press releases, companies web sites and annual reviews, blogs and other secondary sources on information. Some new trends and hypothesis besides mentioned in the short-list are always welcome but need to be discussed and proved. Macro to micro trends analysis.

Structure: hypothesis, some proving facts and data, analysis based on common sense, reliable scientific and economical articles and investigations expert opinions (may include the interviews made by the students themselves), visualization of ideas.

Frost & Sullivan role: short-list of Mega Trends preparation, assistance with some data and primary information. Moderation of discussions within working groups, assistance with data collection and analysis techniques. Assistance with data visualization.

Requirements to collection and formulation arguments for new/ existing Mega TrendEvery trend realization (in general) should be supported with:Existing or planned project or technology R&D better with announced financial plans or intentions, proving the whole trend (time of realization, approx. amount of investments)Announced government support, special legislation framework, government programs and initiatives, co-investment initiatives.Some data (e.g. backward statistics or current and future situation analysis, experts point of view, etc) proving social, economic, technology, whatever, local or global trends.Good examples or success stories proving the hypothesis (in Russia or in other countries as well).And vice versa: if you think that of the trends for some reason wont work for Russia you should be ready to prove it with some valuable facts.#Social Trends: Prosperity, Education and Social MobilityTo analyse:Middle class size (now and in 2020), its main characteristics (incl. distribution per country), related economic trends (demands, development, interdependency with economic processes, etc.)Social mobility trends: economic, geographic and infrastructure aspects (benefits, threats). Why do we need it? How it could be intensified?Higher demand for intangible products entertainment, services, investment (new services, new markets and market opportunities)Current and Future Education systems for Generation Y (announced plans and reforms), necessities, main trends globalization, education in Russia and abroad (statistics, predictions), social effects, opportunities, benefits.To think about:Social thinking: social networks (current statistics, trends), social innovations, personalization(new trends and applications)Solid technical knowledge vs. lack of managerial skills in Russia (traditional forms of education). Complex approach and reformation, new shape of high education: Federal Universities, National research centres.

#8Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega CorridorsTo analyse:Moscow Big City project:Announced plans and investments (opportunities, problems, concerns)Development strategy (infrastructure, transport system, social aspects)Investments and project realization periodRegional impact. Is it possible? Why do we need it?Vladivostok mega hub in the Far East:Complex development of Vladivostok before and after APEC 2012 summitOpportunities and problems for Vladivostok as a hub and connection point between Russia and Asia. Possible locations-competitors.Level of investments needed and announced (perspectives)Regional impact. Why is it so important?To think about:Moscow - St. Petersburg Mega Corridor? (Mumbai-Delhi case-study)Prerequisites for corridor creation (trends and examples), costs and future opportunitiesProject execution (plans, timing, possibility and necessity)Russian urbanization trends in general. Another examples of Mega Regions/ corridors in Russia.

#9Modern RussiaTo analyse:Current and announced modernization programmes and initiatives (plans, investment level, goals, realization period) state and private trends,Some industry examples: oil and gas (oil refining), and/or utilities (water/gas/electricity supply, wastewater),Expectations and impact on various industries (some related statistics could be useful)New technologies application in industry and economy (how they could influence on current situation or shape new trends),E-government implementation in Russia (current situation, statistics, perspectives, comparison with another countries - United Nations E-government reports, situation in different countries: leaders and best practices to understand main trends.To think about:Strategy 2020 state programme,Business initiatives and expectations,Various sectors opportunities: space, energy, ITC, etc.,Russia: current state vs future opportunities : cost of paper services and e-government approach (plans, budget spending). What do we actually gain and what we lose?

#10Back to RussiaTo analyze:Localization of manufacturing in Russia hi-tech alternative to mass production in Asia region (trends, reasons, opportunities, threats),Different practical aspects: manufacturing capabilities, human capital, geographic position, infrastructure),Leading international companies and their plans in Russia: manufacturing localization, R&D, etc.Reverse brain drain process:Is it truly exist?Do people return or its just brain circulation (reasons, statistics, positive and negative sides)?Current trends and government plans and expectationsTo think about:Current position and Russian perspectives in global economy. Is Back to Russia possible and why? Global experience of the same processes.Reverse brain drain: globalization of modern science (volume of brain drain, cost for economy, conditions for return to analyse if its possible or not). Global trends.

#11Mega Events To analyse:Mega Events in RussiaAPEC Summit (Vladivostok, 2012)Winter Olympics (Sochi, 2014)Formula 1 Grand Prix (Sochi, 2014)Soccer World Cup (2018)Different aspects: investments, infrastructure and technology (threats and opportunities)Impact to national economy (direct and indirect): tourism, production, investmentsPrivate and state approach and contribution,Global experience: success stories and bad examples (London, Beijing, Mexico-2010 celebration programmes)

To think about:Mega events as a part of national promotion strategy: does it really work?Russia brand promotion: current image and perception, trends and the ways to improve

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Examples#Case Study: Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) One of the Biggest Manmade Corridors; Completed by 2020Estimated cost of completion; funding from Japanese and Indian governments on a 50:50 basisstatesroad and rail link lengtheach of 200 sq km size, projected tripling of exports in 5 years$90billion797 emerging Mega Cities 3 ports, 6 airports and high speed freight lines1,483kmIndustrial zones6investment regions3million peopleemployment opportunities, 70% in manufacturing and processing

Investment RegionsSource and Photo Credits: DMIC to be integrated along the corridor#Project details of the Investment regions of DMICR-

Dadri-Noida-Ghaziabad Investment Region

Export-oriented Industrial Units/ SEZAugmentation of Existing Industrial Estates: It is proposed to augment two industrial estates in Ghaziabad.Agro/Food Processing ZoneIT/ITES/Biotech HubKnowledge Hub/Skill Development Centre: Potential sectors could include Agro Processing, Engineering, Leather/ Handicraft and IT/ITES/Biotechnology sectors.Integrated Logistics Hub: Expansion of the existing Inland Container Depot at Dadri and establishment of a Logistic Park have been proposed.Integrated TownshipFeeder Road Links: - Providing linkage to NH-24 and NH-58.- Augmentation of State Highway connecting Ghaziabad-Aligarh-Agra.- Connectivity to Greater Noida/Delhi and Faridabad/NH2 and to Faridabad-Noida-Ghaziabad and Kundli-Ghaziabad Expressways.- Development of requisite grade separators/flyovers/interchanges and underpasses along the National Highways/ State Highways and access roads for uninterrupted freight and passenger movement to the region would also be included in the development of feeder links.Feeder Rail Links:- Linkage to/from container terminal and with Western DFC at Dadri.- Augmentation of Meerut-Dadri-Ghaziabad, Ghaziabad-Aligarh-Hathras route.- Development of Feeder Rail links also includes construction of underpasses wherever required so as to avoid level crossings.- Development of Regional MRTS network between Ghaziabad, Noida and proposed Greater Noida International Airport at Jeur as well as between Greater Noida International Airport and Palwal/Faridabad.

Manesar-Bawal Investment Region

Export-oriented Industrial Units/ SEZ: Knowledge Hub/Skill Development CentreIntegrated Logistics Hub with ICD: This will include an Inland Container Depot at Bawal and a freight logistics park to facilitate auto exports from the region along with truck terminal facilities.Integrated TownshipFeeder Road Links:- Connectivity to NH-8, the Golden Quadrilateral Corridor- Augmentation of NH-71 (Rewari-Rohtak-Jalandhar) link to four-lane dual carriageway.- Development of requisite grade separators/flyovers/interchanges and underpasses along the National Highways/ State Highways and access roads for uninterrupted freight and passenger movement to the region would also be included in the development of feeder links.. Feeder Rail Links:- Connectivity to the Rewari-Delhi Railway Line and Dedicated Freight Corridor (Rewari-Dadri stretch) with exclusive sidings- Development of Feeder Rail links also includes construction of over bridges/ underpasses wherever required so as to avoid level crossings.- Regional MRTS between Delhi-Manesar-Neemrana in Rajasthan- Development of MRTS network between Gurgaon/Manesar and Faridabad

Khushkhera-Bhiwadi-Neemrana Investment Region

Export-oriented Industrial Units/ SEZIT/ITES/Biotech HubKnowledge Hub/Skill Development Centre: To support the auto component, IT/ITES and Biotechnology sectors, a Knowledge Hub/skill up gradation centre would be imperative at Nimarana.Integrated Logistics HubIntegrated TownshipInternational Airport Complex: This investment region is proposed to be provided with an Airport Complex having an air strip and other integrated facilities that would cater to the needs of business visitors like baggage check-in, registration with the Ministry of External Affairs for overseas visitors etc.Feeder Road Links:- Connectivity to NH-8, the Golden Quadrilateral Corridor- Augmentation of Rewari-Alwar- Bharatpur linkages- Development of requisite grade separators/flyovers/interchanges and underpasses along the National Highways/ State Highways and access roads for uninterrupted freight and passenger movement to the region would also be included in the development of feeder links.. Feeder Rail Links:- Connectivity to the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor through exclusive siding;- Development of Feeder Rail links also includes construction of underpasses wherever required so as to avoid level crossings.- Development of Regional MRTS Linkage between Delhi, Manesar and Neemrana

Pithampura-Dhar-Mhow Investment Region

Export-Oriented/ Industry Processing Units/ SEZs: Electrical/ Engineering, Auto component, Pharma, Apparel, Gems & Jewelry, Herbal etc;Augmentation of existing industrial estates: Expansion of one or two industrial estates located at Indore/ Pithampur;Integrated Agro/ Food Processing Zone for processing of agricultural produce in the region and integrating with Indore Airport for export purposes etc;Knowledge City/ Skill Development Center to cater to training in engineering/textile/apparel, automobile/auto component, software technologies, agro-processing/ biotechnology;IT/ITES and Biotech HubIntegrated TownshipIntegrated Logistics Hub with Container Depot, truck terminal & warehousing;Development of Feeder Road Links connecting identified investment region with NHDP and Hinterlands;Development of Feeder Rail Linkage: - Expediting new construction of Dahod- Sardapur-Dhar-Indore BG Link (196km) and Chhota Udepur-Pratapnagar (100km) guage conversion; - proposed gauge conversion for Indore-Khandwa Link (138.76km) from MG to BG for connectivity with Mumbai Port; proposed new construction of Dhar-Chhota Udepur BG Link (100km) for connectivity with South Gujarat (Hazira, Dahej and Maroli Ports) and other missing links;- Augmentation of Indore Airport as Modern International Airport

Igatpuri-Nashik-Sinnar Investment Region

Export-oriented Industrial Units/ SEZ: This region has the potential for Engineering, Automobile, Aluminium, Raisins, and Steel Furniture Sectors.Augmentation of Existing Industrial Estates: As part of development of the industrial area, augmentation of two industrial areas in Nashik district (Nashik and Sinnar) are considered for implementation under DMIC.Integrated Agro/Food Processing Zone: In order to take advantage of inherent strengths of the region for Grapes and Wine Production at Vinchur, it is envisaged that an Integrated Agro/Food Processing Zone with horticulture market will be developed as part of the Nashik-Sinnar Investment Region.Knowledge Hub/Skill Development Centre: To support the engineering, automobile, wine production/ agro-processing sectors, a Knowledge Hub/skill up gradation centre is proposed to be developed with integrated infrastructure facilities.Integrated Logistics Hub: Nashik-Sinnar Region will also include development of Integrated Logistics Hub with multi-modal logistics infrastructure and value added services.Integrated Township: This region would be provided with an integrated township with residential, institutional, commercial and leisure/recreation infrastructure which could be dovetailed to requirements of specific investor groups/ countries.Development of Nashik Airport: Keeping in view of the future prospects for the Nashik Region, it is envisaged that Nashik Airport would be upgraded to cater to domestic/international aircraft under DMIC to develop as the modern airport offering international air connectivity.Feeder Road Links: Development of Feeder road linkages connecting the identified industrial area with NHDP, Hinterlands, inter alia, includes following proposals:- Development of Expressway between Nashik and Indore, integrating with Government of Maharashtra's vision for Mumbai-Nashik Expressway- Augmentation of NH-50 (Nashik/Sinnar) to four lane dual carriageway.- Augmentation of Igatpuri-Akola-Sangamner is under progress- Development of requisite grade separators/flyovers/interchanges and underpasses along the National Highways/ State Highways and access roads for uninterrupted freight and passenger movement to the region would also be included in the development of feeder links.Feeder Rail Links:- Enhanced Connectivity to Mumbai-Manmad Rail Link.- Ensuring Connectivity with DFFC at Vasai Road Junction

Maharashtra-Dighi Port Industrial Area

Greenfield Port at Alewadi/ Dighi Port: It is envisaged that development of Greenfield Ports at Alewadi and (or) Dighi Port would be considered under DMIC. These ports are proposed to be developed with Container Terminals. Selection of specific port or both the ports would be carried out during the detailed feasibility stage.Export-oriented Industrial Units/ SEZ: This region has the potential for chemical, engineering, paints, pharmaceuticals and port based industrial activities (ship repairing/ship building etc).Integrated Logistics Hub: Industrial Area with Greenfield Port will also include development of Integrated Logistics Hub with Container Freight Station and multi-modal logistics infrastructure with value added services.Integrated Township: This region would be provided with integrated township with residential, institutional, commercial and leisure/recreation infrastructure which could be dovetailed to requirements of specific investor groups/ countries.Development of 3000MW Power Plant: There is a possibility of developing 3000MW power plant in Raigad district. Adequate land and resources are available in this region for developing power plant. However, detailed evaluation will be carried out during the detailed feasibility stage.Feeder Road Links: Development of feeder road linkages connecting the identified industrial area with NHDP, Hinterlands, inter alia, includes following development proposals.- Augmentation of Linkages connecting Alewadi and Dighi Ports with the National Highway Network (NH-3, NH-4, NH-17, NH-8).Feeder Rail Links:- Connectivity to Dedicated Freight Corridor and Hinterland can be provided though appropriate rail linkages.

Ahmedabad-Dholera Investment Region

Development of Greenfield Port at Dholera: It is proposed to develop an all-weather modern port at Dholera. This port has the potential to cater to ship building and ship repairing industriesDevelopment of Ship YardExport-oriented Industrial Units/ SEZ:This region also has potential to develop steel industries utilizing abundant lignite deposits in the katchh region of the state.Augmentation of Existing Industrial Estates: Augmentation of Vatva Industrial Estate as Mega Industrial Estate, located near Ahmedabad, is proposed for consideration under DMIC.IT/ITES/Biotech Hub: Knowledge Hub/Skill Development Centre: To support the auto component, IT/ITES and Biotechnology sectors and offer training in Maritime/ ship engineering courses, a Knowledge Hub/skill upgradation center would be imperative at Dholera.Knowledge City at Gandhinagar:It would be spread over an area of 700-800Ha with world-class integrated residential, commercial, sports/ recreational infrastructure. Development of this region is proposed to be considered under this investment region of DMIC.Integrated Logistics Hub with Container Freight Station: Development of Dholera region would include a Container Freight Station with multi-modal logistics infrastructure and value added services.Development of 3500MW Power Plant: There is a good prospect of developing 3500MW power plant at Dholera. Adequate land is available and the primary fuel source would be imported coal.Integrated Township: This region would be provided with an integrated township with residential, institutional, commercial and leisure/recreation infrastructure which could be dovetailed to requirements of specific investor groups/ countries.International Airport at Dholera:This investment region is proposed to be provided with a world class International Airport Hub.Feeder Road Links:- Development of connectivity between Dholera and NH-8A (Bagodra), NH-8 (Anand)- Augmentation of Bagodra-Bhavnagar and Dholera-Dhandhuka-Limbdi-Surendra Nagar.- Development of requisite grade separators/flyovers/interchanges and underpasses along the National Highways/ State Highways and access roads for uninterrupted freight and passenger movement to the region would also be included in the development of feeder links.Development of Logistics Hub at Surendra Nagar:Feeder Rail Links- Development of High Speed Regional Rail link between Dholera, Ahmedabad and Gandhi Nagar for passenger and freight movements.- Dholera-Vadodara Rail Linkage for connectivity with Dedicated Freight Corridor.

14Case Study: Jaypee Green Sports CityIndia's First $1B Urban Integrated City to be Completed by 2013

The 2,500-acre Jaypee Greens Sports Complex in Noida, New Delhi, is comprised of apartments and villas, lakes and canals. social clubs, a motor racing track, a cricket stadium, and other international sports centres.Total InvestmentSports City Complex: $820 millionAdditional Contract Fee (Formula One): $175 million ($35 million p.a. for 5 years)Important DatesTentative date of completion: 2013Lake DistrictCricket StadiumGolf Course and Green ParkMotor Racing TrackCountry HomesResidential Lake District includes villas, town homes, and mid- to high-rise apartment blocks.18-hole golf course and 18 km of green boulevard across 215 acres of landscape, waterways, and recreational facilities.25,000-seat hockey stadium, a go-karting facility, and a sports academy have been planned.Buddh International Circuit, over 875 acres in length, has already hosted the very first F1 Motor Race in India in October 2011.Upcoming in-built cricket stadium, which boasts a capacity of 10,000 people.Country-style homes with a capacity to house a total of more than 1.5 lakh families.Other Sports facilitiesRESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIALSPORTS FACILITIESSource: Jaypee Group (Company Website)#15E-Governance in India: Examples of Emerging G2G, G2C, and G2B Services in IndiaINTERACTIONSG2GSERVICES (Examples)E-Training, e-Payroll, Budget Control, e-Funds Transfere Files, Decision Support SystemE-Delivery of Land Records, e-Payments for Utility Services, Electoral ServicesE-RegistrationE-Licenses and e-PermitsVehicle Tracking SystemE-LicensingE-PermitsE-Procurement (Pre- and Post-Bid)E-Revenue CollectionE-Business and e-Forms

G2CG2BIMPLICATIONSIncrease efficiency between different functional areas of governmentTransparency for stakeholders in G2G transactionsEfficient delivery of a long range of public services 24/7One Stop Shop for all G2C and B2C servicesCut red tape and save timeReduce operational costs for businessesIncrease buying powerTransparency in bidding processMEDIUMInstallation of service centres, kiosks, Internet, fax,phone, e-mail, WAN, data servers, applicationservers

Source: 11th Report, Second Administrative Reforms Commission, Promoting e-Governance, Government of India, 2008

Government to GovernmentGovernment to CitizensGovernment to Business#16