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Tom G. Reynolds
Sponsor:Gary Pokodner, FAA Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC)
Wind Needs forNextGen Applications
Air Traffic Control Systems Group
Wind Needs for NextGen -- 2TGR 07/22/14
MeterFix
Time target @ Meter Fix; Wind updates?
Actualwinds
Wind Needs for NextGen Applications
RTA
AircraftWinds
ATC/Airline
GroundWinds
Objective: Establish relationship of wind information accuracy to 4D-TBO and IM performance and hence identify wind needs to support them
• Many NextGen applications depend on access to high accuracy wind data– Required Time of Arrival (RTA) at a meter
fix under 4D-Trajectory Based Ops– Assigned Spacing Goal (ASG) between
aircraft under Interval Management (IM)
Wind Needs for NextGen -- 3TGR 07/22/14
Performance Assessment
Wind Information Analysis Framework
Allows analysis of wind information impacts on range of NextGen applicationsDesigned to be scalable wrt scope/fidelity & flexible wrt application
Wind forecast assumpt
ions
Wind Scenario
Truth Forecast
Air
craf
t/A
uto
mat
ion
S
imu
lati
on
Stakeholder needs
ATCScenario 4D-TBO
IM
WindRequirement
Recommendations Identify combinations of wind data, forecast
models & data age which meet required
wind info quality goals
Pe
rfM
etr
ic
Wind Information Quality
Low
Med
High
Sampletargetperformance
Ave
rag
efo
reca
st e
rro
r
Data age
Benign,Moderate,
Severe,Extreme
Model ABC
Wind Needs for NextGen -- 4TGR 07/22/14
Application of Framework to InformConcepts of Operation and/or Datalink Needs
1. Define scenarios of interest
2. Identify performance trade-space
3. Select target performance level
4. Do feasible combinations of performance drivers meet target level of performance?
Yes
No
5. Do feasible combinations of wind forecast model and
ages meet error limit?
Yes
No
Identified need for enhanced
automation and/or wind model
“or”
6. Define procedure/ConOps/datalink needs to get required wind info accuracy to aircraft
Pe
rfM
etr
ic
Wind Information Quality
Low
Med
High
Sampletargetperformance
Av
erag
efo
reca
st e
rro
r
Data age
Model ABC
Wind Needs for NextGen -- 5TGR 07/22/14
1. Define application of interest– 4D-TBO from FL290-FL390 to meter fix at 12,000 ft
2. Identify relevant trade-space
3. Select target performance level– +/- 10 secs 95% of time
4. Identify combinations ofperformance drivers whichmeet target level ofperformance
– Any FMS/cruise altitudefeasible if wind error<5 kts RMS
– Only A-FMS, any cruise level if wind error up to 15 kts RMS– Only A-FMS from low cruise alts if wind error up to 25 kts RMS
Sample Application of Results
Low (5 kts RMS)
Medium (15 kts RMS)
Hi (25 kts RMS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
95%
RTA
Co
mp
lian
ce (
secs
)
Forecasterror
WindForecast
Error
Automation Capability/ATC Scenario
Illustrativetrade-space
A-FMS = Advanced FMS, B-FMS = Basic FMS
Wind Needs for NextGen -- 6TGR 07/22/14
Forecast Data Age (hours)
Win
d M
od
el R
MS
Err
or
(kts
)
Wind Model Forecast Error (vs HRRR 0-hr truth)Combined SFO, ORD, EWR Regions, Nov 2013-Apr 2014
GFS
RAP
HRRR
5. Identify wind models and data ages which achieve maximum allowable wind forecast error
– HRRR data less than 2.5 hours old
– RAP model data less than 1.5 hours old
– GFS data: infeasible
Sample Application of Results
6. Create procedures/ConOps to get required winds into aircraft– For trans-continental flights, require fresh wind updates based on
RAP model within 1.5 hours or RTA time, or HRRR model within 2.5 hours of RTA time
– Bandwidth needs for update depends on #WPs and amount of info at each WP
Wind Needs for NextGen -- 7TGR 07/22/14
• Need to understand wind info accuracy impacts on NextGen to inform– Concepts of operation– Procedure performance targets– Datalink bandwidth needs
• Wind forecast model performance and aircraft automation capability are key drivers
• Future work– Validate findings– Explore FMS wind-handling and wind forecast enhancements– Address evolving RTCA/other stakeholder wind information needs
Key Takeaways
