Today's top stories...13 November 2012 Large caps Mid caps By sector By company Today's top stories Large caps Mid caps E.ON (Reduce) Not yet! FCC (Hold) Well below expectations due

13 November 2012

Large caps Mid caps By sector By company

Today's top stories Large caps Mid caps

E.ON (Reduce)Not yet!FCC (Hold)Well below expectations due to EUR100m negative impact from AlpineGemalto (Buy)Announces mobile content back-up project with Orange JordanSonova (Hold)Results in line with our expectationsUBS (Reduce)German UBS clients charged with tax evasion

Assystem (Buy)Q3 sales below expectations, TP cut from EUR19 to EUR18Campari (Reduce)Lowering EPS on Italy shortfall in Q3, TP cut from EUR5.1 to EUR5.0 ERG (Buy)Q3 above estimatesFaurecia (Hold)Lowering mid-term margin, FCF targets due to darker outlook on EuropeUnion Financière de France (Buy)Q3 revenues down 7.7% after minus 10% for H1

Other news

Austria

Immofinanz (Buy)Major portion of 2017 convertible bond put option exercisedSemperit (Hold)Q3 results in line with market expectationsWienerberger AG (Hold)Q3 operating results slightly above expectations but net income below

Belgium

UCB (Reduce)Full pIII Cimzia data in axSpA confirm April headline data

France

Ausy (Buy)Q3 LFL +4% thanks to foreign countries, above our estimatesGroupe Lafuma (Buy)Officially announces end of talks with E-landLagardère (Reduce)Q3 sales: first readPagesJaunes (Hold)Q3 sales: first read

Germany

Aareal (Buy)Unexciting and fully in line

Germany

DIC Asset (Buy)Q3 in line; attractive cash flow yieldLeoni (Reduce)Lower capacity utilisation makes Wiring Systems the source of earningsUnited Power (Buy)A reassuring quarterWincor Nixdorf (Buy)Q1 to see good hardware sales

Italy

ACEA (Buy)Q3: mixed resultsAlerion (Buy)Q3 preview: another strong quarter expectedBrembo (Hold)Strong Q3 resultsDatalogic (Buy)Weak Q3 results De Longhi SpA (Hold)Time to take a rest DeLclima (Buy)Weaker Q3, Buy confirmed

Please refer to the last page of this report for "Important Disclosures" and analyst(s) certifications.

Go online to www.keplercapitalmarkets.com to find continuous local news analysis & access to our extensive research library of over 450 European companies.

mailto:[email protected]

http://itunes.apple.com/ca/app/kepler-cm-par-kepler-capital/id446377836?mt=8

13 November 2012


Other news

Italy

ENEL Green Power (Buy)Q3 in line, slightly lower guidanceFalck Renewables (Buy)Q3: less wind this time, but positive results Fiat (Hold)Veba wants much more for Chrysler stakeGenerali (Buy)FT interviews CEO IREN (Hold)Q3 preview: focus on the business planMontepaschi Siena (Hold)Expected back in the black on capital gainPirelli & C. (Hold)Hold confirmed, TP trimmed from EUR8.6 to EUR8.4 after mixed Q3Telecom Italia (Buy)Receives expression of interest from Naguib Sawiris Tod's Group (Hold)Q3 results preview

Netherlands

AkzoNobel (Hold)Coating industry consolidation gaining speedKPN (Reduce)Takes another 10% of ReggefiberVopak (Hold)Q3 results about in line, FY guidance maintained

Spain

ACS (Buy)9M operating results weaker, strong WC deteriorationRepsol (Hold)Spanish government sees margin to negotiate YPF compensation

Spain

Sacyr (Buy)NCG Bank continues to sell its stake, 4.073% leftVueling (Buy)EU suspends ETS application for international flights

Switzerland

Lem (Buy)Strong margins - guides for lower fiscal H2Swiss Life (Hold)Weak sales, exceptional work on investments

Sector information

Sector information: Automobiles & partsCautious feedback from supplier meetings at German Equity ForumSector information: BanksGerman online banks: solid and stable dividend payers

Sector information: BanksSpanish new house sales figures for September: not good enoughSector information: ChemicalsK+S Q3 7% below consensus, FY guidance at lower end, low 2013 guidanceSector information: Personal goodsUS September watch sales ease, jewellery improves; mood seen better

Roadshow pipeline and current research Roadshow pipeline

13/11/2012 OERLIKON Mgmt - November 2012 Boston

13/11/2012 JENOPTIK Paris

14/11/2012 Vopak Edinburgh

14/11/2012 VOESTALPINE Paris

14/11/2012 OERLIKON Mgmt - November 2012 Montreal

15/11/2012 OERLIKON Mgmt - November 2012 Toronto

15/11/2012 UNICREDIT Paris

15/11/2012 BME Paris

15/11/2012 SIKA Mgmt - November 2012 Toronto

15/11/2012 Salzgitter AG London

13 November 2012


Large capsCompany Rating News

ACS (Spain) Buy (Unchanged) 9M operating results weaker, strong WC deterioration

AkzoNobel (Netherlands) Hold (Unchanged) Coating industry consolidation gaining speed

E.ON (Germany) Reduce (Unchanged) Not yet!

ENEL Green Power (Italy) Buy (Unchanged) Q3 in line, slightly lower guidance

FCC (Spain) Hold (Unchanged) Well below expectations due to EUR100m negative impact from Alpine

Fiat (Italy) Hold (Unchanged) Veba wants much more for Chrysler stake

Gemalto (France) Buy (Unchanged) Announces mobile content back-up project with Orange Jordan

Generali (Italy) Buy (Unchanged) FT interviews CEO

KPN (Netherlands) Reduce (Unchanged) Takes another 10% of Reggefiber

Lagardère (France) Reduce (Unchanged) Q3 sales: first read

Montepaschi Siena (Italy) Hold (Unchanged) Expected back in the black on capital gain

Repsol (Spain) Hold (Unchanged) Spanish government sees margin to negotiate YPF compensation

Sonova (Switzerland) Hold (Unchanged) Results in line with our expectations

Telecom Italia (Italy) Buy (Unchanged) Receives expression of interest from Naguib Sawiris

UBS (Switzerland) Reduce (Unchanged) German UBS clients charged with tax evasion

UCB (Belgium) Reduce (Unchanged) Full pIII Cimzia data in axSpA confirm April headline data

13 November 2012


Mid capsCompany Rating News

Aareal (Germany) Buy (Unchanged) Unexciting and fully in line

ACEA (Italy) Buy (Unchanged) Q3: mixed results

Alerion (Italy) Buy (Unchanged) Q3 preview: another strong quarter expected

Assystem (France) Buy (Unchanged) Q3 sales below expectations, TP cut from EUR19 to EUR18

Ausy (France) Buy (Unchanged) Q3 LFL +4% thanks to foreign countries, above our estimates

Brembo (Italy) Hold (Unchanged) Strong Q3 results

Campari (Italy) Reduce (Unchanged) Lowering EPS on Italy shortfall in Q3, TP cut from EUR5.1 to EUR5.0

Datalogic (Italy) Buy (Unchanged) Weak Q3 results

De Longhi SpA (Italy) Hold (Downgrade) Time to take a rest

DeLclima (Italy) Buy (Unchanged) Weaker Q3, Buy confirmed

DIC Asset (Germany) Buy (Unchanged) Q3 in line; attractive cash flow yield

ERG (Italy) Buy (Unchanged) Q3 above estimates

Falck Renewables (Italy) Buy (Unchanged) Q3: less wind this time, but positive results

Faurecia (France) Hold (Unchanged) Lowering mid-term margin, FCF targets due to darker outlook on Europe

Groupe Lafuma (France) Buy (Unchanged) Officially announces end of talks with E-land

Immofinanz (Austria) Buy (Unchanged) Major portion of 2017 convertible bond put option exercised

IREN (Italy) Hold (Unchanged) Q3 preview: focus on the business plan

Lem (Switzerland) Buy (Unchanged) Strong margins - guides for lower fiscal H2

Leoni (Germany) Reduce (Unchanged) Lower capacity utilisation makes Wiring Systems the source of earnings

PagesJaunes (France) Hold (Unchanged) Q3 sales: first read

Pirelli & C. (Italy) Hold (Unchanged) Hold confirmed, TP trimmed from EUR8.6 to EUR8.4 after mixed Q3

Sacyr (Spain) Buy (Unchanged) NCG Bank continues to sell its stake, 4.073% left

Semperit (Austria) Hold (Unchanged) Q3 results in line with market expectations

Swiss Life (Switzerland) Hold (Unchanged) Weak sales, exceptional work on investments

Tod's Group (Italy) Hold (Unchanged) Q3 results preview

Union Financière de France (France)Buy (Unchanged) Q3 revenues down 7.7% after minus 10% for H1

United Power (Germany) Buy (Unchanged) A reassuring quarter

Vopak (Netherlands) Hold (Unchanged) Q3 results about in line, FY guidance maintained

Vueling (Spain) Buy (Unchanged) EU suspends ETS application for international flights

Wienerberger AG (Austria) Hold (Downgrade) Q3 operating results slightly above expectations but net income below

Wincor Nixdorf (Germany) Buy (Unchanged) Q1 to see good hardware sales

13 November 2012


By sector Automobiles & parts

Brembo Hold (Unchanged) Strong Q3 results

Faurecia Hold (Unchanged) Lowering mid-term margin, FCF targets due to darker outlook on Europe

Fiat Hold (Unchanged) Veba wants much more for Chrysler stake

Leoni Reduce (Unchanged) Lower capacity utilisation makes Wiring Systems the source of earnings

Pirelli & C. Hold (Unchanged) Hold confirmed, TP trimmed from EUR8.6 to EUR8.4 after mixed Q3

Sector information Cautious feedback from supplier meetings at German Equity Forum

Banks

Aareal Buy (Unchanged) Unexciting and fully in line

Montepaschi Siena Hold (Unchanged) Expected back in the black on capital gain

UBS Reduce (Unchanged) German UBS clients charged with tax evasion

Union Financière de France Buy (Unchanged) Q3 revenues down 7.7% after minus 10% for H1

Sector information German online banks: solid and stable dividend payers

Sector information Spanish new house sales figures for September: not good enough

Beverages

Campari Reduce (Unchanged) Lowering EPS on Italy shortfall in Q3, TP cut from EUR5.1 to EUR5.0

Chemicals

AkzoNobel Hold (Unchanged) Coating industry consolidation gaining speed

Sector information K+S Q3 7% below consensus, FY guidance at lower end, low 2013 guidance

Construction & materials

ACS Buy (Unchanged) 9M operating results weaker, strong WC deterioration

FCC Hold (Unchanged) Well below expectations due to EUR100m negative impact from Alpine

Sacyr Buy (Unchanged) NCG Bank continues to sell its stake, 4.073% left

Wienerberger AG Hold (Downgrade) Q3 operating results slightly above expectations but net income below

Health care equipment & services

Sonova Hold (Unchanged) Results in line with our expectations

Household goods & home construction

De Longhi SpA Hold (Downgrade) Time to take a rest

13 November 2012


By sector Industrial engineering

Semperit Hold (Unchanged) Q3 results in line with market expectations

United Power Buy (Unchanged) A reassuring quarter

Insurance

Generali Buy (Unchanged) FT interviews CEO

Swiss Life Hold (Unchanged) Weak sales, exceptional work on investments

Media

Lagardère Reduce (Unchanged) Q3 sales: first read

PagesJaunes Hold (Unchanged) Q3 sales: first read

Oil & gas producers

Repsol Hold (Unchanged) Spanish government sees margin to negotiate YPF compensation

Personal goods

Groupe Lafuma Buy (Unchanged) Officially announces end of talks with E-land

Tod's Group Hold (Unchanged) Q3 results preview

Sector information US September watch sales ease, jewellery improves; mood seen better

Pharmaceuticals & biotechnology

UCB Reduce (Unchanged) Full pIII Cimzia data in axSpA confirm April headline data

Real estate investment trusts

DIC Asset Buy (Unchanged) Q3 in line; attractive cash flow yield

Immofinanz Buy (Unchanged) Major portion of 2017 convertible bond put option exercised

Software & computer services

Assystem Buy (Unchanged) Q3 sales below expectations, TP cut from EUR19 to EUR18

Ausy Buy (Unchanged) Q3 LFL +4% thanks to foreign countries, above our estimates

Wincor Nixdorf Buy (Unchanged) Q1 to see good hardware sales

Support services

Vopak Hold (Unchanged) Q3 results about in line, FY guidance maintained

13 November 2012


By sector Technology hardware & equipment

Gemalto Buy (Unchanged) Announces mobile content back-up project with Orange Jordan

Telecommunication services

KPN Reduce (Unchanged) Takes another 10% of Reggefiber

Telecom Italia Buy (Unchanged) Receives expression of interest from Naguib Sawiris

Travel & leisure

Vueling Buy (Unchanged) EU suspends ETS application for international flights

Utilities

ACEA Buy (Unchanged) Q3: mixed results

Alerion Buy (Unchanged) Q3 preview: another strong quarter expected

E.ON Reduce (Unchanged) Not yet!

ENEL Green Power Buy (Unchanged) Q3 in line, slightly lower guidance

ERG Buy (Unchanged) Q3 above estimates

Falck Renewables Buy (Unchanged) Q3: less wind this time, but positive results

IREN Hold (Unchanged) Q3 preview: focus on the business plan

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR20.00

Buy

Aareal Q3 earnings Unexciting and fully in line

BanksSmall & mid capGermany DJ Stoxx 600

Current price EUR16.55 Target price EUR20.00

Mkt. cap (m) EUR990 Cur. year ROE 4.9%

YTD abs. perf. 18.3% YTD rel. perf. 7.3%

Reuters ARLG.DE Bloomberg ARL GY

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ERevenues (EURm) 637 703 751GOP 284 325 356Current profit 180 200 251Net profit (dcl) 92 107 144Net profit (adj) 92 107 144EPS (adj) 1.54 1.79 2.41EPS (old) 1.56 2.12 2.40PE 10.7 9.3 6.9P/OPBRP 3.5 3.0 2.8P/Current profit 5.5 5.0 3.9P/BOOK 0.52 0.49 0.46Net dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%

Facts: Aareal reported EUR42m pretax profit for Q3, fully in line with expectations (consensus and our forecast were at exactly EUR42m) and with no surprises. New business was EUR1.3bn, an acceleration of H1 but still not at levels which would absorb the bank's excess liquidity. For 9M new business now stands at EUR3bn, but management confirmed its full year target in a range of EUR4.5bn to EUR5.5bn and even guides towards the higher end of that range. This implies some EUR2.5bn new business for Q4. The group's core tier one ratio stands at 11.6% and Aareal fulfils all liquidity rules from Basel III. Analysis: The disappointment about the Q3 results comes from consulting, which achieved a bare break-even. The low interest rates, which in Q3 fell even further, continue to burden the result as no spread can be earned from the vast deposit base. But management pointed out the strategic importance of this business for its funding mix, which attracted now EUR5.8bn average deposits. Aareal scrapped its guidance for this division of above EUR20m (the 2011 result), which after only EUR4m in 9M was no longer realistic anyway. Opinion: Except for the consulting division all other targets were confirmed. This is a little disappointing, given that for the provisioning they are running with EUR67m at 9M well below their guidance of EUR110-140m and investors might have liked if they had lowered it. Aareal remains a dull story, but it is undervalued and coping well with the crisis. Buy.

Dirk Becker [email protected]

+49 69 7569 6119

Target EUR7.20

Buy

ACEA Q3 earnings Q3: mixed results

UtilitiesSmall & mid capItaly DJ Stoxx 600


Mkt. cap (m) EUR829 EV (m) EUR3,323

YTD abs. perf. -20.3% YTD rel. perf. -27.7%

Reuters ACE.MI Bloomberg ACE IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 3,399.1 3,447.9 3,463.7EBITDA 676.3 700.0 725.9EBIT 313.1 322.0 331.3Pretax profit 222.5 231.4 219.2Net profit (adj) 112.4 116.9 118.7EPS (adj) 0.55 0.58 0.57DPS 0.34 0.36 0.36PE 7.0 6.8 6.8EV/sales 1.0 0.9 0.9EV/EBITDA 4.9 4.7 4.5EV/EBIT 10.6 10.2 9.8Net debt/EBITDA 3.4 3.2 3.1FCF Yield 0.1% 14.8% 13.5%Net dividend yield 8.8% 9.2% 9.1%

Facts: Acea Q3 results released yesterday after trading hours. Conference call today at 11AM CET. Analysis: Q3 was in line with our estimates at operating level, with lower net profit. The EBITDA reached EUR164m, down 9.5% YOY despite the regulated nature of most of its businesses (around 80% of the EBITDA), due to the higher costs of the energy used in the water business. The net profit came at EUR22m, lower than our EUR28m estimates, mainly due to higher taxes. The 9M EBITDA reached EUR485m, up 3.1% YOY and representing 72% of our 2012 estimate. The net debt at end-September came out at EUR2.7bn, up 3.6% QOQ, in line with our estimates. Focus: on the implementation of the business plan, potential disposals, negotiations on the water regulation and potential management reshuffle (the CFO recently resigned). One-off: -EUR8m in the EBIT due to a past litigation in the water business. Opinion: Valuation: we should confirm our SOP-based target price of EUR7.2, implying a fair 5.9x EV/EBITDA12E. Rating: we reiterate our Buy rating, in view of the huge potential upside even based on our cautious assumptions. We appreciate the company’s safe business profile as around 80% of the EBITDA is regulated. The main risk is related to the governance and to the potential decision to sell a stake from the Municipality of Rome.

Claudia Introvigne [email protected]

+39 02 8550 7220

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR21.00

Buy

ACS Company update 9M operating results weaker, strong WC deterioration

Construction & materialsLarge capSpain DJ Stoxx 600


Mkt. cap (m) EUR4,948 EV (m) EUR21,117


Reuters ACS.MC Bloomberg ACS SQ

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 36,303 36,952 38,346EBITDA 2,844 2,918 3,399EBIT 1,572 1,735 2,110Pretax profit 1,618 1,863 2,333Net profit (adj) 921 1,011 1,263EPS (adj) 2.93 3.21 4.01DPS 1.59 1.18 1.18PE 5.4 4.9 3.9EV/sales 0.6 0.6 0.5EV/EBITDA 7.4 7.0 5.4EV/EBIT 13.4 11.9 8.6Net debt/EBITDA 2.7 2.2 1.6FCF Yield -45.4% na naNet dividend yield 10.1% 7.5% 7.5%

Facts: Revenues EUR28.47bn, +56% YOY (-7.6% LFL), were in line, although excluding Hochtief, would be 3% below, due to weaker revenues in Dragados (7% below expectations). EBITDA EUR2.32bn, +52% YOY, below our estimates (-4%) mainly due to a weaker figures of Dragados (-3%) and Hochtief (-14%). Net income was marked by the losses from the 3.7% Iberdola stake disposal (EUR599m net losses) and the impairment of the rest of the stake to value per share of EUR5.6/sh contributing with net losses of EUR962m. Additionally, EUR256m stake restructuring costs (revised downwards from EUR302m in H1). After all these impacts, net losses amounted to EUR1.1bn (EUR555m, -15% excluding all non recurring items). Analysis: The highlight was the net debt performance, which increased to EUR9.2bn from EUR8.58bn in June (EUR9.3bn at FY1) due to the increase at construction (EUR3.47bn vs. EUR3.2bn in June), industrial services (EUR858m net cash from EUR1.063bn in H1) and Iberdrola SPV (EUR2.6bn vs. EUR2.2bn in June), mainly due to working capital deterioration further to EUR1.35bn outflow as both Hochtief (EUR-1.14bn) and the rest of the group (EUR-213m) posted weaker performances than expected (EUR-771m and EUR+43m in H1). Opinion: Results slightly weaker than expected on the operating side and still severely affected by Iberdrola impairment and provisions for the refinancing of its vehicles. Financially, the main negative impact comes from the higher-than-expected WC deterioration mainly from Hochtief

Emilio Rotondo [email protected]

+34 91 436 5175

Target EUR47.00

Hold

AkzoNobel Company update Coating industry consolidation gaining speed

ChemicalsLarge capNetherlands DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters AKZO.AS Bloomberg AKZA NA

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 16,404 16,706 17,063EBITDA 1,972 2,211 2,331EBIT 1,300 1,547 1,652Pretax profit 263 513 621Net profit (adj) -81 108 185EPS (adj) 3.41 3.68 4.00DPS 1.50 1.55 1.70PE 12.5 11.5 10.6EV/sales 0.7 0.7 0.6EV/EBITDA 6.1 5.2 4.6EV/EBIT 9.3 7.4 6.5Net debt/EBITDA 0.7 0.5 0.2FCF Yield 5.6% 6.3% 7.6%Net dividend yield 3.5% 3.7% 4.0%

Facts: After several quarters of only small M&A actions, the US paint company Sherwin-Williams announced it will take over Mexico’s COMEX. Analysis: Sherwin-Williams will pay an EV of USD2.34bn. in 2011, COMEX generated USD1.4bn revenues (thereof USD1bn in Mexico). The COMEX acquisition will also boost Sherwin-William’s presence in the US West Coast and Canada. The EV/sales multiple of 1.7x based on 2011 numbers is slightly above average for paint companies in Americas and far above Akzo’s valuation (currently EV/sales of 0.7x based on 2011 or 2012E). The deal was seen positively by the market yesterday as Sherwin-William’s share price was up 6-7%. Opinion: As Akzo’s Latin America exposure is only 12% of its Decorative Paints (North America 20% of Deco) and only 4% of group sales, the direct impact for the Akzo group is limited. However, as the paints and coating market is still highly fragmented where Akzo as the far biggest company has only ca. 15% market share, a gaining consolidation momentum could help to improve the pricing power (which is still below average compared to other chemical companies). In our view, Akzo could become after its current restructuring a consolidator as well. In our view, small bolt-on paint acquisitions in Western, Eastern Europe and Latin America together with takeovers of industrial and marine coatings are likely before Akzo could look for bigger acquisitions.

Markus Mayer [email protected]

+49 892 4218 147

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR6.00

Buy

Alerion Q3 preview Q3 preview: another strong quarter expected



Mkt. cap (m) EUR161 EV (m) EUR599


Reuters ARN.MI Bloomberg ARN IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 79.9 91.7 143.6EBITDA 60.0 66.3 108.6EBIT 34.9 39.1 70.8Pretax profit 11.6 14.1 40.1Net profit (adj) 8.0 9.7 27.8EPS (adj) 0.18 0.22 0.63DPS 0.12 0.12 0.12PE 20.0 16.6 5.8EV/sales 7.5 7.7 4.5EV/EBITDA 10.0 10.6 5.9EV/EBIT 17.2 18.0 9.1Net debt/EBITDA 7.3 8.2 4.4FCF Yield -57.6% -61.9% 40.8%Net dividend yield 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%

Facts: Alerion Q3 2012 results due tomorrow. Analysis: We expect strong results. We note that Q2 and Q3 are the weakest quarters of the year for wind-based generators. We estimate a EUR9m EBITDA, more than double YOY thanks to the improved wind conditions and the higher installed capacity. We expect a bottom line in the red for EUR3m, versus the EUR4m loss in Q3 11, after higher D&A and financial charges. The 9M 2012 EBITDA could be at EUR37m, up 61% YOY and accounting for 62% of our 2012 estimate. Net debt should be EUR360m at end-September, up 1.8% QOQ after EUR10m of quarterly capex. Focus: on the guidance for Q4, since October could have been weak in terms of wind; on the potential entrance in Romania (with a partner); on the business plan implementation, which targets an installed capacity of around 700MW by 2015 and an EBITDA of EUR170-180m, after EUR600m of cumulated capex. We reiterate that we set extremely cautious estimates, not including new unauthorized projects pointing to a FY 2015 EBITDA of EUR109m after EUR255m of cumulated capex to reach 435MW of installed capacity. Opinion: We confirm our Buy rating on the stock, as we appreciate Alerion’s attractive asset base, its appealing growth profile, its solid shareholders’ structure and in view of a >60% potential upside suggested by our cautious EUR6 target price.


+39 02 8550 7220

Target EUR18.00

Buy

Assystem Target price change Q3 sales below expectations, TP cut from EUR19 to EUR18

Software & computer servicesSmall & mid capFrance DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters ASY.PA Bloomberg ASY FP

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 855.9 905.0 965.0EBITDA 73.9 81.0 90.0EBIT 60.9 67.0 75.0Pretax profit 50.1 67.2 77.2Net profit (adj) 34.9 41.8 48.8EPS (adj) 1.32 1.53 1.74DPS 0.53 0.59 0.00PE 11.3 9.7 8.5EV/sales 0.3 0.3 0.2EV/EBITDA 3.5 2.8 2.2EV/EBIT 4.2 3.4 2.6Net debt/EBITDA -0.4 -0.7 -1.0FCF Yield 11.0% 12.6% 14.3%Net dividend yield 3.6% 3.9% 0.0%

Facts: Q3 sales came in at EUR202m below expectations (Kepler EUR210m) with a 3.8% LFL growth (Kepler 4.7% in line with cons) and a lower-than-expected MPH contribution (adoption of IFRS, exit of some low profitability contracts, unfavourable FX). France keeps slowing (0.4% LFL growth in Q3 vs. 1.9% in Q2) but international is solid (9.3% LFL growth vs. 6.6% in Q2) though helped by easier comps. Analysis: By division, Aerospace (29% of sales) is up 11.5% YOY and increasing exposure to post-development activities (now half of the business) reinforces visibility. Infrastructure division accelerates (+3% LFL vs. +1% in H1) thanks to a sustained growth in the UK nuclear activities. Technology (~half automotive) is down 1.7% LFL with decrease in French automotive activities going on (estimated at 10-15% of group sales). While French auto will still weigh in coming quarters, Energy will be key in 2013 with more visibility on large nuclear contracts in the pipe and the potential ramp-up of Oil & Gas activities (the group just won a > EUR10m tender in Australia). On M&A, negotiations on a potential deal in Germany were interrupted. Bolt-on M&A in emerging is now more likely. As of today, management seems confident it can achieve the 5% LFL growth guidance but the FY margin is likely to be in the low end of the 7-7.5% guidance (transfer of French auto activity in Romania triggering higher costs than expected). Opinion: EPS trimmed by 3% in 2012 and 6% in 2013-2014. TP cut from EUR19 to EUR18. Buy

Felix Levious [email protected]

+33 1 53 65 36 34

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR23.70

Buy

Ausy Q3 sales Q3 LFL +4% thanks to foreign countries, above our estimates

Software & computer servicesSmall & mid capFrance FTSE Euro First 300




Reuters OSI.PA Bloomberg OSI FP

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 319.4 339.9 356.0EBITDA 20.8 25.5 28.6EBIT 19.5 24.1 27.2Pretax profit 19.2 21.8 24.7Net profit (adj) 11.6 12.8 14.4EPS (adj) 2.08 2.30 2.60DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00PE 9.1 8.2 7.3EV/sales 0.3 0.4 0.3EV/EBITDA 5.3 4.9 3.9EV/EBIT 5.6 5.2 4.1Net debt/EBITDA 1.1 1.5 0.9FCF Yield 18.3% 10.5% 13.0%Net dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Facts: Q3 sales were EUR76.2m, +4.3% or +4% LFL, after -0.6% LFL in H1, above our estimate of EUR74.3m (+0.9% LFL). As expected in its domestic market Ausy was penalised by cut in Aptus non profitable contracts. Sales in France has declined by 0.9% in Q3 (-2% expected). In Foreign countries sales growth remains strong at +20.4% or +19% LFL (+10% expected) despite a high base notably thanks to the success of development in Germany (+45% vs +21% exp.). All in all 9 months sales were EUR235.3m, +10.8% or +0.9% LFL (EUR233m +10% or flat LFL in our scenario) thanks the integration of Aptus (3 months), APX (3 months), Elan (6 months), and Mobitech (5 months). Analysis: Due to the efforts focused on developing local business, it s highly likely that foreign countries will continue to weigh on Ausy’s margins despite margin improvement for preys (1.6% in operating margin in H1 compared with 7.4% in France). However, it will be a new growth driver for the company, which will soften the impact of a likely durable tough market in France. Opinion: As growing exposure to foreign countries is relatively new for Ausy (26% of sales exp. for 2012, vs 10% in 2005), we estimate that the market has not yet identified the new resilience of the business model. The current valuation clearly underestimates the potential offered by its presence in Germany (one of the best markets in terms of outlook in Europe) or Sweden (higher margins in Scandinavian countries, auguring for a positive mix effect for Ausy). Buy reiterated

Claire Deray [email protected]

+33 1 5365 3538 Kepler Capital Markets is a liquidity provider in relation to price stabilisation activities for the issuer to provide liquidity in such instruments.

Target EUR8.30

Hold

Brembo Q3 earnings Strong Q3 results

Automobiles & partsSmall & mid capItaly DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters BRBI.MI Bloomberg BRE IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 1,366.2 1,409.7 1,479.9EBITDA 164.1 180.7 194.6EBIT 83.1 91.2 106.2Pretax profit 67.9 77.2 94.2Net profit (adj) 50.6 56.4 68.2EPS (adj) 0.75 0.84 1.01DPS 0.32 0.38 0.46PE 11.3 10.1 8.4EV/sales 0.7 0.6 0.6EV/EBITDA 5.7 5.0 4.4EV/EBIT 11.2 9.9 8.1Net debt/EBITDA 2.1 1.7 1.4FCF Yield -0.8% 9.0% 12.3%Net dividend yield 3.8% 4.4% 5.4%

Facts: Brembo Q3 2012 results released yesterday during trading hours (live presentation today at 12:45 CET in Milan). Analysis: Sales came bang in line, results better under all other metrics. Sales up 9.5% YOY to EUR342m, EBITDA at EUR40m (up 21% YOY) with a 11.8% margin (vs. our 11.1%), EBIT at EUR19m (up 26% YOY) with a 5.6% margin (vs. our 5.1%), net profit at EUR13m (more than doubled YOY). Net debt remained stable QOQ at EUR350m, better than we expected thanks to a better working capital management and the lower capex. Sales growth was supported by car (up 17.6% YOY, accounting for 66% of sales ), with CVs down 9% YOY (16% of sales) and motorbikes down 10% YOY (11%). As far as geographies are concerned, Germany was up 27% YOY (25% of sales), Nafta up 33% YOY (23%) and Italy down 13% YOY (13%). Management confirmed existing guidance for sales-up 9/10% YOY with a stable margin (we estimate a 8.9% growth and a stable 12% margin respectively) and we confirmed our estimates waiting for today results presentation. We may lift our below-consensus estimates in view the high sales resiliency and the faster recovery in margins and decline in capex seen in Q3. Opinion: Hold confirmed with a EUR8.3 target price waiting for today presentation.

Gianantonio Villani, CFA [email protected]

+39 02 8550 7216

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR5.00

Reduce

Campari Target price change Lowering EPS on Italy shortfall in Q3, TP cut from EUR5.1 to EUR5.0

BeveragesSmall & mid capItaly DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters CPR.MI Bloomberg CPR IM


Facts: Campari reported weak Q3 earnings, including flat LFL sales growth (+0.2%) vs. +5.1%e (H1: +3.2%), led by a 10% LFL drop in Italy (Ke: -3%). Americas (+3.9% LFL vs. +10.8%e) and Rest of the World (+10.8% LFL vs. +25%e) also disappointed. The only positive surprise was Rest of Europe, +0.8% (Ke: -2%e), despite a further double-digit decline of Aperol in Germany. Thus, EBIT came almost 9% below our forecasts and Pretax (EUR52.8m, -11% yoy), was 15% below, led by higher-than-expected financial charges and EUR4m non-recurring items related to the Lascelles DeMercado acquisition. Analysis: The Italian shortfall (-10% LFL in Q3) reflects a significant deterioration in spirits consumption since the summer (market down 7.1% in August-September vs. -3.8% in the 12M ending September), combined with some destocking. While Campari calls for a more modest 2-3% decline in Italy in Q4 (October better), management remains prudent, as the implementation of new business rules (payment terms set at 60 days) between Food & Bev companies and wholesalers/retailers could translate into further destocking in Q4. We now see 3.2% LFL sales growth in 2012 vs. +4.1% previously. We now see EBIT margin down 50bps vs. -40bps (helped by lower A&P and SG&A ratios in Q4) and adj. net profits down 0.8% yoy. Looking at 2013, we see 11.7% adj profit growth, o/w 4.7% LFL sales/EBIT growth and a 4% boost from the LdM acquisition. Opinion: EPS cut by 5% in 2012, -3.8% from 2013. 30% exposure to Italy makes risk/return unattractive.

Laetitia Delaye [email protected]

+33 1 5365 3668

Target EUR8.00

Buy

Datalogic Company update Weak Q3 results

Technology hardware & equipmentSmall & mid capItaly DJ Stoxx 600



YTD abs. perf. 8.6% YTD rel. perf. -1.5%

Reuters DAL.MI Bloomberg DAL IM


Facts: Q3 sales increased 3.4% YOY to EUR111m (the preliminary figure was already disclosed in October), with gross profit down 1% YOY at EUR49.3m (we expected EUR54.6m). EBIT at EUR9.8m was well below our EUR14.1m estimate and decreased 30% YOY on a 10% YOY rise of operating costs, resulting in a Q3 margin of 8.9% vs 13.1% in Q3 11 and 16.1% in Q2 12. The net profit of EUR2.2m (we expected EUR6.6m) was impacted by EUR4.5m charges on forex hedging with EUR1.9m positive taxes booked in the quarter. The net debt decreased 2% QOQ at EUR167m at end-September in line with our expectations (EUR165m). Analysis: Sales benefited from a EUR8.3m contribution from acquisitions (PPT and Accu-Sort) and a EUR6.5m contribution from the USD appreciation, implying an organic decline of 10.6% YOY (worse than -2.2% YOY in H1). A deteriorating sales trend (slowdown in demand and delays in large projects for Accu-Sort) was anticipated by management in October, although the impact on margins was worse than expected denoting upside pressure on costs. The 9% YOY increase in Q3 orders supports the upswing in sales expected in Q4 (+18% YOY to reach the EUR475m mid-point guidance sales) although visibility remains low. Short-term catalysts include potential M&A moves. Management confirmed the guidance provided in October of sales at EUR472/477m in 2012, stating its confidence on margin rebound on improving revenues (EBITDA margin at 15/16%) and net debt slightly below EUR150m. Opinion: Buy, TP EUR8 confirmed.

Enrico Coco [email protected]

+39 02 8550 7227

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR10.40

Hold

De Longhi SpA Q3 earnings Time to take a rest

Household goods & home constructionSmall & mid capItaly FTSE Italy




Reuters DLG.MI Bloomberg DLG IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 1,513.7 1,774.4 1,869.5EBITDA 223.3 261.0 279.4EBIT 191.1 224.1 239.1Pretax profit 151.3 193.5 216.9Net profit (adj) 115.7 140.1 156.7EPS (adj) 0.77 0.94 1.05DPS 0.30 0.30 0.30PE 13.6 11.2 10.0EV/sales 1.1 0.9 0.8EV/EBITDA 7.5 6.3 5.4EV/EBIT 8.8 7.3 6.3Net debt/EBITDA 0.4 0.2 -0.3FCF Yield 5.0% 5.4% 11.0%Net dividend yield 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%

Facts: The revenues and adj. EBITDA came in at EUR344m and EUR56m slightly vs. our EUR337m and EUR54m, with a marginality of 16.3% vs. 16% and -90bps YOY. The SSGA and marketing costs for Braun wiped out most of the marginality. The NFP turned QOQ from cash positive to cash negative as the effects (EUR204m) from Braun were accounted (just EUR50m with cash impact). We calculate that on a recurring level the cash absorption was EUR77m vs. our EUR10m as a consequence of higher NWC increase QOQ, due also to lower factoring effect (EUR39m) to be recovered in Q4 (new factoring line fully in place). Analysis: The top-line (+6% YOY), elped by forex, was encouraging despite a sluggish Heating season, while the marginality due to the marketing and SGGA for Braun (EUR5-10m on FY). The management strongly confirmed the +5% YOY on revenues (October started well and Xmas looks encouraging), while on the adj. EBITDA, due to the extra EUR5-10m, the growth should largely match the top-line’s growth. Opinion: We confirm the 2012-14E revenues, decreasing the adj. EBITDA by 3%, following higher costs (Braun-related), largely offset at the bottom-line by more favourable tax rate. We also increase the NFP (up by EUR40m in 2012), despite the recovery of factoring, due to the higher net debt in Q3. We confirm the TP of EUR10.4. We appreciate the company’s evolution and developments (Braun). After a strong performance, with no upside left on our valuation, we may take a rest. We see upside from Braun's performance.

Filippo Prini [email protected]

+39 02 8550 7226

Target EUR0.75

Buy

DeLclima Q3 earnings Weaker Q3, Buy confirmed

Household goods & home constructionSmall & mid capItaly DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters DLCL.MI Bloomberg DLC IM


Facts: Revenues at EUR96m and EBITDA at EUR10m came below our estimates (EUR100m and EUR13m) as with ICCR in line and stable YOY, the radiators declined more than expected at -25% YOY vs. our -18% YOY. On the other hand, the EUR42m net debt (vs. our EUR40m) implied no cash generation in Q3, usually a quarter of cash absorption. Despite the low visibility, the management confirmed the Q3 orders intake (good proxy for Q4 revenues) up YOY and even the first weeks of Q4 look encouraging in this perspective. Analysis: ICCR (75% of revenues and >100% of EBITDA) levelled off YOY as the -2.4% YOY in Europe was offset by the +20% YOY. Radiators (100% European business and in the middle of a turnaround) had a -25% YOY decline in Asia. Opinion: Buy confirmed. The stock has been making an outstanding rally (+15% since Q2 reporting ), driven by the growing interest for a shunned story after the spin-off. We believe that the decent momentum ahead sustained by the positive indications on the order book provided during the conference call may support a continuation of this trend.

Filippo Prini [email protected]

+39 02 8550 7226

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR9.00

Buy

DIC Asset Q3 earnings Q3 in line; attractive cash flow yield

Real estate investment trustsSmall & mid capGermany DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters DAZG.DE Bloomberg DAZ GR

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014EGross rent (EURm) 126 121 120EBITDA 103.2 101.3 98.7Operating cash flow 59.0 45.1 45.8Net profit (dcl) 12.9 14.8 13.8Net profit (adj) 12.9 14.8 13.8EPS (adj) 0.28 0.32 0.30EPS (old) 0.32 0.34 0.32PE 24.8 21.7 23.3P/Cash flow 5.4 7.1 7.0EV/EBIT 22.8 23.3 24.0P/NNAV 0.5 0.4 0.4Net dividend yield 5.7% 5.7% 5.7%

Facts: DIC Asset reported Q3 results fully in line with expectation with (pre-tax) FFO of EUR10.9m. After having achieved FFO of EUR32.2m in the first nine months, the company seems on track to reach its FY guidance of EUR43m-45m. The company also continued to decrease vacancies of the value-add commercial property portfolio (vacancy dropped from 12% to 11.7% QOQ). Thus, FY vacancy guidance of 11.5% also still seems realistic providing further evidence for DIC’s asset management capabilities. The final quarter should benefit from some additional acquisition fees in funds business and therefore we expect sequential FFO growth in the final quarter and we stick to our EUR44.4m estimate. Analysis: Opinion: DIC Asset belongs to high risk category due to high leverage and focus on value-add assets. The current valuation with FFO-yield 2013E of 12.5% and 55% discount to NAV-2012E still signals significant re-rating potential with further rising risk appetite. The company’s track record of managing those assets and the steady progress on de-leveraging/de-risking e.g. (recent sale of “Bienenkorbhaus”) are also providing comfort in our view. Buy, TP EUR9.0.

Burkhard Sawazki [email protected]

+49 697 569 6212

Target EUR17.00

Reduce

E.ON Company update Not yet!

UtilitiesLarge capGermany DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters EONGn.DE Bloomberg EOAN GY

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 142,262 145,435 150,190EBITDA 10,015 10,774 11,324EBIT 6,311 6,695 7,116Pretax profit 5,399 5,826 6,269Net profit (adj) 3,421 3,705 3,990EPS (adj) 1.71 1.85 1.99DPS 1.10 1.10 1.15PE 9.7 8.9 8.3EV/sales 0.5 0.5 0.4EV/EBITDA 6.5 6.1 5.9EV/EBIT 10.4 9.9 9.4Net debt/EBITDA 2.3 2.1 2.0FCF Yield 1.4% 7.9% 7.7%Net dividend yield 6.6% 6.6% 7.0%

Facts: E.ON again is dropping guidance, again on weak fundamentals. 2013 and 2015 are now under review. We are at the lower end of 2013 guidance and more than EUR1bn below 2015’s. That is, limited downside to our figures and the shares are down EUR3 (15%) since our September downgrade at a EUR19.5 peak. Analysis: While 2012 EBITDA guidance of EUR10.4-11.0bn got confirmed (we are at EUR10.9bn, ie better 9M results won’t do anything to our numbers for this year), 2013 and 2015 now under review. For 2013, old guidance was EUR11.6-12.3bn (we are at EUR11.7bn, ie at the low end), for 2015 EUR12.5-13.0bn, which is post further disposals, where we are at EUR12.1bn before disposals, ie on an adjusted basis, we are more than EUR1bn sort of guidance (and that since it was set up). E.ON does not control market fundamentals beyond hedges (which applies in full for 2015), and thus should not guide at all that far down the road. Opinion: We downgraded E.ON at its YTD peak at EUR19.5 in September (ESM/ECB, Fed and E.ON, 17 September), after a rally in the shares that wasn’t really back up by improving fundamentals (as the lower guidance now proves, too). It is down EUR3/share since, or 15%, to now mildly below the EUR17 target valuation that we have kept since March. Given the state of our modelling (possibly about fine for 2012-15), and following this first read of the company’s statements, further share price weakness might create an opportunity.

Ingo Becker, CFA [email protected]

+49 69 7569 6295

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR1.70

Buy

ENEL Green Power Q3 earnings Q3 in line, slightly lower guidance

UtilitiesLarge capItaly DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters EGPW.MI Bloomberg EGPW IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 2,555 2,683 2,878EBITDA 1,652 1,769 1,956EBIT 1,036 1,113 1,262Pretax profit 821 890 1,035Net profit (adj) 456 500 628EPS (adj) 0.09 0.10 0.13DPS 0.03 0.03 0.04PE 13.8 12.6 10.1EV/sales 4.5 4.4 4.1EV/EBITDA 7.0 6.6 6.0EV/EBIT 11.1 10.5 9.3Net debt/EBITDA 2.9 2.8 2.5FCF Yield -9.2% -1.0% 2.6%Net dividend yield 2.2% 2.4% 3.0%

Facts: Enel Green Power Q3 2012 results yesterday during trading hours and conference call at a closed market. Analysis: Q3 was in line with our estimates. The EBITDA reached EUR315m, up 2.3% YOY (we expected EUR314m) as the weak hydroelectric generation was offset by the new plants that started operation. The installed capacity at end-September reached 7,609MW (7,554MW at end-June). The production was 18.2TWh with a 38% load factor (42% in H1, but Q3 is always the weakest quarter of the year), also due to the weak hydro generation. The net profit reached EUR57m, down 9.5% YOY after higher D&A and taxes. The 9M EBITDA reached EUR1,122m, up 12% YOY on a LFL basis and weighing 68% on our 2012 estimate. Net debt at end-September was EUR4.7bn, in line with our estimate and up 0.6% QOQ. Guidance: slightly lowered: 2012 EBITDA above EUR1.6bn versus previous around EUR1.7bn (more near to EUR1.7bn, should the hydroelectric conditions improve in Q4). Our and consensus estimates stand at EUR1.65bn. The next business plan update will happen in March 2013. Opinion: Estimates: confirmed. We expect a EUR2.1bn EBITDA in 2016, below the EUR2.6bn company target, after EUR5.6bn of cumulated 2012-2016 capex (EUR6.1bn in EGP plan). We confirm our SOP-based target price of EUR1.7, which implies a fair 7.8x EV/EBITDA 2012E. Buy confirmed in view of the attractive >30% potential upside.


+39 02 8550 7220

Target EUR8.60

Buy

ERG Q3 earnings Q3 above estimates





Reuters ERG.MI Bloomberg ERG IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 7,205.1 4,331.0 1,805.4EBITDA 399.1 421.1 493.8EBIT 150.1 181.7 277.0Pretax profit 86.9 108.7 239.6Net profit (adj) -13.2 30.9 94.1EPS (adj) -0.09 0.22 0.66DPS 0.40 0.40 0.40PE na 24.1 7.9EV/sales 0.2 0.2 0.5EV/EBITDA 2.9 2.1 1.7EV/EBIT 7.8 4.8 3.0Net debt/EBITDA 1.7 0.6 0.2FCF Yield 19.9% 32.5% 17.2%Net dividend yield 7.7% 7.7% 7.7%

Facts: ERG Q3 results just released (conference today at 15:00 CET) Analysis: Q3 above our estimates. The RC-EBITDA adj. of EUR125m was up 3.9% YOY and 32% QOQ, 11% above our EUR112m estimate thanks to a better result in refining & marketing (EUR24m versus our EUR15m estimate), while results of the power (EUR80m) and renewables (EUR26m) divisions came out in line with our estimates. The net profit reported, at EUR245m, included the EUR214m capital gain from the put option exercise with Lukoil and is not expected to be distributed as extraordinary dividend. The net profit adjusted came in at EUR12m, above our EUR4m estimate. The net debt adj. at end-September reached EUR1,023m, down 22.9% QOQ, mainly thanks to the put option exercise. However it was above our EUR860m estimate, due to: EUR82m negative mark-to-market of derivatives, EUR20m of lack of cash position from Isab, EUR28m as delayed payment of Green Certificates (according to new regulation), purchase of treasury shares. Opinion: Guidance: the latest guidance indicated a EUR400m RC-EBITDA adj. and a EUR900m net debt adj. in 2012, in line with our estimates. It should be confirmed in the conference call today. Buy confirmed, in view of its substantial potential upside (>60%), its appealing dividend yield (7.6% in FY 2012E and sustainable in our view), its cash availability to grow in renewables and the positive catalyst of the new business plan presentation at end 2012.


+39 02 8550 7220

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR1.20

Buy

Falck Renewables Q3 earnings Q3: less wind this time, but positive results





Reuters AA4.MI Bloomberg FKR IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 279.3 279.7 288.0EBITDA 159.7 162.2 172.5EBIT 85.9 99.4 107.2Pretax profit 40.1 52.1 59.3Net profit (adj) 13.4 26.6 30.6EPS (adj) 0.05 0.09 0.11DPS 0.01 0.02 0.02PE 20.3 10.2 8.9EV/sales 3.8 3.9 3.8EV/EBITDA 6.7 6.8 6.3EV/EBIT 12.4 11.0 10.2Net debt/EBITDA 4.9 5.0 4.7FCF Yield -6.8% -8.9% 3.9%Net dividend yield 1.1% 2.1% 2.5%

Facts: Falck Renewables Q3 2012 results and conference call today yesterday during trading hours. Q3 was slightly better than our estimate. We note that Q3 is generally a weak quarter for renewable companies. Q3 EBITDA reached EUR30m (we expected EUR27m), up 3.9% YOY despite the higher wind installed capacity (+170MW versus Q3 11), due to the lower windiness. EBIT came out at EUR12m, almost in line with our estimate. In 9M, EBITDA reached EUR115m, up 24% YOY and equal to 72% of our 2012 estimate. Net debt totalled EUR777m at end-September, excluding the fair value of derivatives, up 0.7% QOQ and slightly above our EUR775m estimate, after EUR43.7m of capex (in line with our estimate). In 9M 12, the installed capacity was 716MW (of which 353MW in Italy and 272MW in UK) versus 546MW in 9M 11 and 684MW at end-2011. Analysis: Focus: 1) on the implementation of the business plan, which targets an installed capacity of around 950MW by 2014 (well above our 744MW estimate) and EUR190m of EBITDA (EUR173m) after EUR0.5bn of cumulated capex (EUR243m); next development phase could rely on: JV in Poland with Avallon for wind projects; scouting of new opportunities in WTE and biomass; 2) on buy-back: as previously decided by the AGM, the BoD approved a buyback program for a maximum 2% of the share capital (their first buyback program). The rationale is to stabilize the market price, but also (and more importantly) to use the treasury shares in the event of JVs or partnerships Opinion: All confirmed, Buy reiterated.


+39 02 8550 7220

Target EUR13.00

Hold

Faurecia Earnings revision Lowering mid-term margin, FCF targets due to darker outlook on Europe

Automobiles & partsSmall & mid capFrance DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters EPED.PA Bloomberg EO FP

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 17,101.1 17,726.8 18,516.8EBITDA 1,040.1 1,133.6 1,297.2EBIT 521.0 570.3 693.6Pretax profit 247.3 326.0 500.7Net profit (adj) 176.3 227.7 331.8EPS (adj) 1.52 1.98 2.85DPS 0.16 0.21 0.30PE 7.7 5.9 4.1EV/sales 0.2 0.2 0.2EV/EBITDA 3.2 3.0 2.6EV/EBIT 6.3 6.0 4.9Net debt/EBITDA 1.6 1.6 1.4FCF Yield -18.0% -8.2% -0.5%Net dividend yield 1.4% 1.8% 2.6%

Facts: Yesterday Faurecia presented its new midterm targets following integration of new assumptions on global auto market (especially on Europe). Sales target was positively revised while ebit margin and FCF objectives were lowered. CEO sees no growth in Europe at Faurecia during 2011-16 period. Profit gain would then only come from all other regions. Group sees cash burn in 2013 and break-even in 2014. Analysis: With no growth in European revenues the group will continue to restructure in western Europe while raising capacity in eastern Europe. Keep in mind operating leverage is the highest in Europe, implying negative margin evolution (-150bp, partly offset by restructuring). Management sees improvement in North America profitability (+200bp to 5%) while margin in Asia is set to remain clearly above group average (>9-10%). To increase its worldwide market share Faurecia will continue to supply OEMs with lighter solutions while still focusing on NOx treatment. Opinion: We were already below previous group's targets. We integrated new factors that confirmed our neutral view on the stock. We see no reason to enter the stock at such price when for similar multiples Valeo offers less operating risk and safer dividend distribution. 2013 EPS down 12% with TP unchanged at EUR13.

Xavier Caroen [email protected]

+33 1 5365 3676

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR10.60

Hold

FCC Q3 earnings Well below expectations due to EUR100m negative impact from Alpine

Construction & materialsLarge capSpain DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters FCC.MC Bloomberg FCC SQ

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 11,678 11,841 12,231EBITDA 1,149 1,164 1,240EBIT 555 604 670Pretax profit 168 222 292Net profit (adj) 151 164 200EPS (adj) 1.19 1.29 1.57DPS 1.30 1.30 1.30PE 8.0 7.4 6.1EV/sales 0.8 0.8 0.7EV/EBITDA 7.9 7.8 7.2EV/EBIT 16.5 15.0 13.3Net debt/EBITDA 5.5 5.3 4.9FCF Yield -2.6% 14.5% 17.3%Net dividend yield 13.6% 13.6% 13.6%

Facts: Revenues EUR8.23bn, down -4%, slightly below our estimates and consensus, EBITDA EUR777m, -19%, below our estimates (-2%), EBIT of EUR329m, -32% well below both our (-25%) and consensus estimates (-21%) due mainly to EUR100m losses generated in Alpine partly offset by the application of EUR83m corporate provisions. Net losses of EUR41m, from net profit of EUR178m last year. Net debt of EUR7.242bn versus EUR6.646bn of H1 partly due to the reclassification of Giant Cement as continuing operations and WC deterioration of EUR355m. Analysis: Alpine: EUR100m of further provisions are expected in Alpine on top of the EUR100m announced today. The Equity of the subsidiary after these losses is around EUR400m. FCC does not envisage a capital increase scenario and it does not have the intention to sell it. Dividends: To be decided at the next board meeting in December. Refinancings: Nothing relevant pending in 2012. In 2013 it has EUR900m in WRG (maturing by year-end), EUR640m syndicate maturing in April-May and around EUR600m of bilaterals. Net debt: FCC expects to end the year at a similar level to 2011 (EUR6.6bn) including Giant (cabout EUR300m), in line with our estimates. This figure could be beaten if another Supplier payment plan is approved (EUR300m-400m) Opinion: Results marked by the EUR100m of losses in Alpine which pushed the results well below expectations.


+34 91 436 5175

Target EUR4.30

Hold

Fiat Company update Veba wants much more for Chrysler stake

Automobiles & partsLarge capItaly DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters FIA.MI Bloomberg F IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 82,937 84,507 87,608EBITDA 7,980 8,707 9,542EBIT 3,769 4,009 4,491Pretax profit 1,921 2,241 2,640Net profit (adj) 512 778 1,218EPS (adj) 0.41 0.62 0.97DPS 0.11 0.11 0.11PE 8.4 5.4 3.5EV/sales 0.2 0.2 0.2EV/EBITDA 2.4 2.3 2.1EV/EBIT 5.1 5.0 4.5Net debt/EBITDA 0.8 0.8 0.8FCF Yield -12.5% -0.9% -0.4%Net dividend yield 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

Facts: According to the Reuters the VEBA (second shareholder of Chrysler with a 41.5% stake) would have asked for USD342m for the 3.3% stake in Chrysler that Fiat opted to acquire in July (allowing Fiat to increase its stake from 58.5% to 61.8%), compared to Fiat’s offer of USD140m based on the outstanding call option agreement set up in June 2009. Fiat had announced in September they have sought a declaratory judgment in Delaware Chancery Court to confirm the price to be paid for the 3.3% stake in Chrysler to be delivered by the VEBA. Analysis: According to the mentioned call option agreement between Fiat and VEBA, which entitles Fiat to acquire progressively a 16.6% in Chrysler through bids on 3.3% each six months the price of such bids is calculated on the sector EV/EBITDA (capped at Fiat multiple). Fiat management recently said they expect to have an answer from the the Delaware court on the issue by year end and then they may bid for a further 3.3% in January. Opinion: We would not expect the issue about the price of Chrysler stake to change the story of the integration of Fiat and Chrysler, which management would like to close by 2015, while it may weighs on Fiat’s financials should the Delaware Chancery Court rule in favour of the VEBA.


+39 02 8550 7216

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR78.00

Buy

Gemalto Corporate action Announces mobile content back-up project with Orange Jordan

Technology hardware & equipmentLarge capFrance DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters GTO.PA Bloomberg GTO FP

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 2,226 2,480 3,050EBITDA 406 486 591EBIT 323 398 503Pretax profit 255 358 467Net profit (adj) 277 354 444EPS (adj) 3.12 3.98 4.97DPS 0.36 0.43 0.51PE 22.1 17.4 13.9EV/sales 2.4 2.0 1.5EV/EBITDA 13.2 10.3 7.9EV/EBIT 16.5 12.6 9.3Net debt/EBITDA -1.0 -1.5 -1.8FCF Yield 4.0% 5.8% 6.8%Net dividend yield 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%

Facts: Gemalto announces this morning that it has won a mobile content back-up project wit Orange Jordan. Overall, this is a nice deal showing that Gemalto has a broad range of solutions and services to fuel mobile communications growth. First, Gemalto announces this morning that Orange Jordan has deployed its high-end cloud backup solution to offer mobile content back-up to all of its 3m subscribers whatever the handset is. Subscribers can now save and restore their mobile data like the phonebook contacts in the cloud in case of handset loss, change or damage, no matter if the data is stored on the SIM card or directly in the handset. The solution also offers an easy way to aggregate and organize other mobile content such as pictures, video, calendar and tasks from a single place. From an operator perspective, it is also a strong retention tool (keeping clients' data safe and providing continuity of service) and also significantly reduces revenue loss linked to mobile service interruption. Gemalto has already deployed its cloud backup solution at close to 100 operators worldwide and is already used by 116m people. Analysis: While market remains largely focused on mobile payment and 4G technologies, Gemalto has a broad range of services and solutions to fuel mobile communications growth going forward, including mobile financial services, personal data management (cloud backup), carrier billing (with Netsize/IPX) and administration platforms (incl. roaming management platforms). Opinion: Buy, EUR78 TP.

Sébastien Sztabowicz [email protected]

+33 1 5365 3510

Target EUR14.90

Buy

Generali Company update FT interviews CEO

InsuranceLarge capItaly DJ Stoxx 600


Mkt. cap (m) EUR19,041 RNAV EUR10.6


Reuters GASI.MI Bloomberg G IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ENet earned prem. (EURm) 64,200.4 65,503.3 66,634.3Net financial income 11,873.3 12,831.6 13,327.5Net inc. before taxes 2,961.1 3,542.1 3,609.5Net income 1,655.1 2,012.6 2,042.5Adj. net income 1,996.1 2,200.1 2,217.9EPS (adj) 1.30 1.43 1.44EPS (old) 1.32 1.42 1.44Adj. P/E 9.4 8.6 8.5P/BV 0.98 0.91 0.86P/NAV 1.15 1.07 1.00P/EV 0.68 0.60 0.53Net dividend yield 3.0% 4.0% 4.3%

Facts: The CEO, Mario Greco, was interviewed by the FT in its first edition since he took the helm of Generali in August. Analysis: Greco did not give anything away regarding the strategic plan to be unveiled on 14 January but made clear a couple of interesting points: 1) he wants to run Generali as a public company, considering Mediobanca just one of the shareholders and not "the" shareholder; 2) he wants more geographic diversification away from Europe, quoting China, Asia, eastern Europe and LatAm as possible desirable areas for growth; 3) Generali may ask shareholders for money to fund external growth initiatives, not to support organic development, while the asset disposal pipeline may go beyond the sale of the US reinsurance arm and BSI. Opinion: This information would seem to support our positive expectations regarding the new deal at Generali. Buy confirmed with a EUR14.9 target price.


+39 02 8550 7216

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR19.30

Buy

Groupe Lafuma Company update Officially announces end of talks with E-land

Personal goodsSmall & mid capFrance DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters LAFU.PA Bloomberg LAF FP


Facts: While this was already suggested by La Lettre de L'Expansion a week ago, Lafuma confirmed the end of its negotiations with Korean company E-land concerning a potential deal. Analysis: This is obviously negative news, as we viewed the EUR35 price per share mentioned by the press as an attractive offer for Lafuma's minority shareholders. While the group recently announced the disposal of le Chameau and the restructuring of Oxbow, we think this does not solve its core problem, i.e the need for a stronger distribution platform. Opinion: Despite the downside on our TP (we see a fundamental value of EUR19.3/share), we continue to see Lafuma as a potential M&A candidate.

Laetitia Delaye [email protected]

+33 1 5365 3668

Kepler Capital Markets is a liquidity provider in relation to price stabilisation activities for the issuer to provide liquidity in such instruments.Kepler Capital Markets may expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months.

Target EUR4.10

Buy

Immofinanz Company update Major portion of 2017 convertible bond put option exercised

Real estate investment trustsSmall & mid capAustria DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters IMFI.VI Bloomberg IIA AV

FY ending: 30/04 2012E 2013E 2014EGross rent (EURm) 756 860 890EBITDA 478.6 578.1 600.8Operating cash flow 339.6 546.7 539.3Net profit (dcl) 272.0 279.1 303.2Net profit (adj) 294.0 301.2 325.3EPS (adj) 0.26 0.27 0.29EPS (old) 0.26 0.26 0.27PE 9.8 11.0 10.2P/Cash flow 9.9 6.0 6.1EV/EBIT 19.2 13.9 13.1P/NNAV 0.6 0.5 0.5Net dividend yield 5.0% 5.0% 7.7%

Facts: Immofinanz announced that 1,443 convertible bonds 2017 have been put. The company has to pay EUR144.3m plus accrued interest for these bonds. A total amount of EUR35.1m of 2017 convertible bonds will remain outstanding. Analysis: The 2017 convertible bond is a rather cheap form of financing for Immofinanz, carrying a coupon of 1.25% only. In addition, the conversion price of the convertible bond is very high at EUR8.41. Opinion: The number of convertibles bonds put is no major surprise. The company can easily finance this early redemption out of its high cash balance. No change in the big picture.

Thomas Neuhold, CFA [email protected]

+43 1 537 12 4147

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR0.53

Hold

IREN Q3 preview Q3 preview: focus on the business plan





Reuters IREE.MI Bloomberg IRE IM


Facts: Iren Q3 2012 results and business plan 2012-15 due tomorrow. Analysis: We expect a positive EBITDA of EUR85m (+2.3% YOY) as the tariff increase and the good gas business performance should largely offset the low spark spread of the generation business. We expect the bottom line in red for minus EUR5m, versus minus EUR1m in Q3 11. The 9M EBITDA could come in at EUR421m, up 2.8% YOY and representing 70% of our 2012 estimate. We expect a net debt at EUR2.65bn at end-September, almost in line QOQ including EUR50m of quarterly capex. Focus: on the new business plan, which should focus on debt control. We currently estimate: 1) EBITDA in 2015 at EUR646m (vs. EUR597m in 2012E); 2) net debt in 2015 at EUR2.4bn (net debt/EBITDA3.7x), after a cumulated capex 2012-2015 of EUR1.1bn and not foreseeing any further disposal; 3) dividend policy: we currently expect a 60% payout ratio (around 10% yield), in line with what the company targeted in the business plan last year. Opinion: Hold confirmed on Iren with a EUR0.53 target price waiting for the new business plan, the disposals and the solving of governance issues (governance is currently under discussion within the Municipalities, some news could emerge in the next weeks). Among Italian utilities, we prefer Hera (Buy, TP EUR1.6) and A2A (Buy, TP EUR0.65) among Italian local utilities.


+39 02 8550 7220

Target EUR6.00

Reduce

KPN Company update Takes another 10% of Reggefiber

Telecommunication servicesLarge capNetherlands DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters KPN.AS Bloomberg KPN NA


Facts: KPN has increased its ownership in the fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) joint-venture Reggefiber with an additional 10% to 51%, for an amount of EUR99m. The amended Reggefiber joint-venture agreement includes three options to increase KPN’s ownership based on a pre-defined timeline alongside operational milestones. In October 2012, Reggefiber reached Reggefiber reached the milestone of 1.0m homes connected and consequently the first option became exercisable. Following this transaction, Reggefiber will not be consolidated as the current situation of joint-control does not change and Reggefiber continues to be accounted for by means of the equity method. Analysis: Option 2 (EUR116-161m) allows another 10% stake acquisition, with a final put option of the remaining 40% at EUR647m. After exercise of option 2 KPN would have to consolidate Reggefiber, including its expected debt (around EUR0.9bn ex shareholder loans) and in the mean time KPN will continue to inject equity in Reggefiber (EUR120-150m per year). At the beginning of the year KPN acquired four fiber service providers plus the wholesale activity of Reggefiber 8EUR150-200m). Opinion: The aquisition of Reggefiber will provide KPN with more exposure to FTTH and a tighter control of the company, allowing KPN to more effectively compete against cable. However, this is a costly process that will significantly deteriorate KPN´s net debt to EBITDA ratios (we estimate by an additional 0.35x). The market is pricing a potential capital increase.

Javier Borrachero, CFA [email protected]

+34 91 436 5161

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR20.00

Reduce

Lagardère Company update Q3 sales: first read

MediaLarge capFrance DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters LAGA.PA Bloomberg MMB FP

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 7,277 7,350 7,380EBITDA 611 616 624EBIT 361 366 374Pretax profit 299 319 327Net profit (adj) 357 406 444EPS (adj) 1.90 2.05 2.15DPS 1.30 1.30 1.30PE 11.1 10.3 9.8EV/sales 0.2 0.2 0.2EV/EBITDA 2.5 2.5 2.5EV/EBIT 4.3 4.2 4.2Net debt/EBITDA 1.6 1.6 1.6FCF Yield 7.1% 8.3% 9.4%Net dividend yield 6.2% 6.2% 6.2%

Facts: Q3 sales. Analysis: Sales came in a little light in all activities except Publishing, which was boosted by sales of JK Rowling's The Casual Vacancy. Q3 group, sales totalled EUR1,963m, down 0.4% organic vs our forecast of EUR2,019m, +0.6% organic. The biggest shortfall was in Active (EUR22m, -11.5% organic), compared with EUR249m, -4% organic forecast. Magazine publishing was down 7%, comprising -8% in advertising and -9% in circulation. Radio was down -7.3% in France and -13.6% in what's left of International (Eastern Europe). TV production revenues, which are lumpy, were down 35% for Q3, but should be stronger in Q4 with he delivery of the second season of Borgia and also Jo (Jean Reno). TV channels (Gulli etc) were still up 3.7% in Q3. Leguide.com's revenues were up 10.5% in Q3 and contributed EUR10m to Active's sales. Sports (Unlimited) was also down 4.5% organic, somewhat surprising given the start of the World Cup 2014 qualifying games. A difficult US market and calendar lag in Asia was cited. Services was flat, but up 2.3% organic (vs 2% forecast) as Paris duty-free (EUR59m in revenues) is now equity-accounted. Opinion: Guidance (flat recurrent EBITA at constant perimeter and constant currency) has been confirmed but we do not know yet the magnitude of some so-called exceptionals (write-offs on the IOC contract). More after the call (11.00 CET).

Conor O'Shea, CFA [email protected]

+33 1 5365 3609

Target CHF550.00

Buy

Lem Q2 earnings Strong margins - guides for lower fiscal H2

Industrial engineeringSmall & mid capSwitzerland DJ Stoxx 600

Current price CHF491.00 Target price CHF550.00

Mkt. cap (m) CHF560 EV (m) CHF551


Reuters LEHN.S Bloomberg LEHN SW

FY ending: 31/03 2011 2012E 2013ESales (CHFm) 236.3 262.8 289.0EBITDA 45.5 52.6 60.3EBIT 37.3 44.1 50.2Pretax profit 32.5 43.7 49.7Net profit (adj) 31.3 35.4 39.8EPS (adj) 27.82 31.46 35.32DPS 40.00 25.00 26.55PE 16.5 15.6 13.9EV/sales 2.3 2.1 1.9EV/EBITDA 11.8 10.5 9.0EV/EBIT 14.3 12.5 10.9Net debt/EBITDA -0.4 0.0 -0.1FCF Yield 6.8% 5.3% 6.2%Net dividend yield 8.1% 5.1% 5.4%

Facts: Fiscal Q2 figures have been slightly below expectations on order intake (-3%) and sales (-6%) level, but above on profitability. Order intake increased by 93.6% to CHF59.8m (Kepler CHF61.6m) and sales by 5.6% to CHF61.1m (Kepler CHF64.9m). EBIT rose by 49.6% to CHF12.5m (Kepler CHF11.7m) resulting in a very strong margin of 20.4% versus 18.1% expected. Lem expects lower sales in fiscal H2 and guides for a full year sales range of CHF230-240m (a range that includes previous year's sales figure of CHF236.3m). Analysis: Lem usually gives a guidance for profitability only with fiscal Q3 results, therefore it is uncertain if the very strong margin in fQ2 is sustainable. In the Industry segment sales declined in Europe (-14% H1/H1; 48% of segment sales), but grew in China (+6%; 19%) and North America (+12%). Thanks to a improved supply chain as well as tight cost control, Lem was able to increase margins. If we implement the higher end of Lem's sales guidance we would need to reduce our sales estimates by 8-9%. On EBIT level we currently estimate a margin of 16.8% which looks very cautious compared to fiscal H1 of 19.2% and fQ2 of 20.4%. A margin level of 18%-19% for FY12-13 on CHF240m sales would result in an EBIT of CHF43.2m-CHF45.6m , a range that includes our current estimate of CHF44.1m. Opinion: We will cut estimates for sales but leave EBIT roughly unchanged. We therefore are unlikely to change our target price of CHF550 after today's conference call (10:00 CET).

Christoph Ladner [email protected]

+41 43 333 6645 Kepler Capital Markets acts as a corporate broker or a sponsor or a sponsor specialist (in accordance with the local regulations) to this company.

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR23.00

Reduce

Leoni Company update Lower capacity utilisation makes Wiring Systems the source of earnings

Automobiles & partsSmall & mid capGermany DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters LEOGn.DE Bloomberg LEO GR

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 3,919.3 4,022.2 4,200.2EBITDA 365.3 362.1 373.3EBIT 233.9 232.2 238.4Pretax profit 218.1 192.7 200.3Net profit (adj) 153.4 135.4 140.8EPS (adj) 4.70 4.15 4.31DPS 1.41 1.24 1.29PE 5.3 6.1 5.8EV/sales 0.3 0.3 0.3EV/EBITDA 3.1 3.3 3.3EV/EBIT 4.9 5.1 5.2Net debt/EBITDA 0.7 0.8 0.9FCF Yield 0.2% -0.3% -0.4%Net dividend yield 5.6% 5.0% 5.1%

Facts: After having pre-released Q3 headline numbers already in late October, Leoni revealed the divisional breakdown of sales and EBIT. While with some EUR538m its sales had still been up by 13% YOY in Q3, Wiring Systems’ EBIT decayed by 27% to 25.5m, suffering from a negative earnings contribution by as well as restructuring expenses for the Korean subsidiary and temporarily shutting down production sites in Tunesia (which we suspect has occurred in conjunction with lower production numbers by French OEMs). The divisional margin of 4.7% was down by some 270bps YOY and 140bps sequentially. In Wire & Cable Solutions sales of EUR417m were down by 5% YOY and EBIT advanced by 41% to EUR27.3m, however, last year had been burdened by some EUR5.6m in e.o. expenses. Analysis: Combined with recent newsflow from the industry Q3 numbers make in our view clear that the source of the recent negative revision of outlook (sales of EUR3.75m and EBIT of EUR235m) as well as postponing of the the 7% EBIT margin target by the company is owed to Wiring Systems, ie in our perception chiefly to the decay of production numbers of the European auto industry. So the situation mirrors the strong dependence of Leoni’s bottom line on capacity load, ie volumes. Opinion: Short-term we see no improvement of the situation of the industry (see our today’s sector espresso for reference). Since Leoni lacks direct exposure to structural growth, we think it will be hit harder by slowing production volumes than e.g. Conti or ElringKlinger.

Michael Raab, CFA [email protected]

+49 69 7569 6157

Target EUR0.20

Hold

Montepaschi Siena Q3 preview Expected back in the black on capital gain

BanksLarge capItaly DJ Stoxx 600


Mkt. cap (m) EUR2,356 Cur. year ROE -2.3%


Reuters BMPS.MI Bloomberg BMPS IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ERevenues (EURm) 4,981 4,905 5,004GOP 1,615 1,690 1,812Current profit 164 435 636Net profit (dcl) -1,603 179 308Net profit (adj) -253 235 48EPS (adj) -0.02 0.02 0.00EPS (old) 0.01 0.02 0.01PE na 10.0 49.3P/OPBRP 1.5 1.4 1.3P/Current profit -20.8 5.5 3.8P/BOOK 0.21 0.21 0.21Net dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Facts: Tomorrow, before trading hours, Montepaschi Siena will report Q3 results (board meeting today), holding a conference call at 09:00 CET. Analysis: We expect the bank to close with a EUR80m net profit, almost double that of last year and turning around from the EUR1.67bn net loss in Q2 2012 (affected by EUR1.57bn goodwill impairment) supported by EUR162m positive one-offs (mainly EUR180m capital gain from bond buyback). The gross operating income should decline 22.7% YOY (+13% QOQ) to EUR372m on 7.1% YOY lower revenues (core revenues down 9.4% YOY and 0.9% QOQ, trading income at EUR40m vs. -EUR5m in Q3 2011 and +EUR5m in Q2 2012) and 2% YOY higher costs (-0.5% QOQ). Instead, the net operating income should close in the red for EUR20m after broadly flat YOY total provisions at EUR392m (-30% QOQ), o/w loan loss provisions up 31% YOY at a 97bp annualised cost of risk (69bp in Q3 2011 and 113bp in Q2 2012) driving to 95bp in 9M 2012E. Opinion: Our focus is on the terms and conditions of the new EUR3.4bn public aid and reimbursement of current EUR1.9bn public aid to be implemented by end-2012; implementation of business plan after failed agreement with trade unions; on credit quality deterioration (we expect total net problematic loans up 2% QOQ); reduction of the Italian govies portfolio.

Anna Maria Benassi [email protected]

+39 02 8550 7215

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR3.00

Hold

PagesJaunes Company update Q3 sales: first read

MediaSmall & mid capFrance DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters PAJ.PA Bloomberg PAJ FP


Facts: Q3 sales. Analysis: Q3 sales (EUR274.9m, -3.6%) were slightly better than forecast (EUR273.4m) thanks to better-than-expected growth on the Internet activities (EUR154.8m, +9.2% YOY vs EUR152.4m, +7.5% forecast). This marks an acceleration compared with Q2 (+7.9%), creditworthy in the context of an overall slowing market. Print (EUR114.3m, -15.5% YOY) was broadly inline with our forecast (EUR115m, -15%) and here the declines are slightly accelerating (Q2 was down -14.8%). Gross margin (MBO) for the 9 months declined by 5%, an improvement compared with H1 (-5.5%) and this flowed through to the bottom line with net income declining by 14.4% for the 9 months, compared with -17.4% at H1. Guidance for the full-year is confirmed (decline in revenues of -1 to -3%, gross margin between EUR470-485m and Internet to represent 60% of total revenues. We are at the bottom of the range on gross margin (EUR468m) and around the middle of the range on revenues (-1.7%). Revenues are down 2.4% through 9 months. Gross margins are down 5% through 9 months and the guidance implies a decline of between 1.5-5%. Opinion: Most importantly, they have announced the successful refinancing of the A1 tranche and RCF to 2015. This increases the average cost of debt by 91bp, which implies that they are paying around 7-7.5% on the latest tranche, which is reasonable. The target is to cut the debt (EUR1.7bn) by ne-third by 2015. More after the call, but there should be a string positive reaction in the market this morning.

Conor O'Shea, CFA [email protected]

+33 1 5365 3609

Target EUR8.40

Hold

Pirelli & C. Target price change Hold confirmed, TP trimmed from EUR8.6 to EUR8.4 after mixed Q3

Automobiles & partsSmall & mid capItaly DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters PECI.MI Bloomberg PC IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 6,141.8 6,543.1 6,955.6EBITDA 1,099.0 1,200.3 1,305.4EBIT 834.3 917.0 1,007.4Pretax profit 667.2 774.6 868.4Net profit (adj) 402.2 482.2 547.6EPS (adj) 0.82 0.99 1.12DPS 0.24 0.33 0.40PE 10.5 8.8 7.7EV/sales 0.9 0.9 0.8EV/EBITDA 5.2 4.6 4.2EV/EBIT 6.9 6.1 5.4Net debt/EBITDA 1.1 0.9 0.8FCF Yield -2.7% 6.4% 6.2%Net dividend yield 2.8% 3.8% 4.6%

Facts: Pirelli released Q3 results yesterday after market close. Analysis: Q3 reuslts came in line with our estimates. Sales advanced 5.1% YOY to EUR1.55bn, EBITDA grew 20% YOY to EUR264m (17% margin, up 210bp YOY) and EBIT 19% YOY to EUR192m (12.4%, up 150bp YOY). The net profit was EUR87m vs our EUR94m estimate as the higher than expected EUR23m loss on equity participations was partially offset by a lower tax arte. The net debt increased 10% QOQ to EUR1.87bn (as roughly expected), as the seasonal wc cycle overshadowed the 4% QOQ decline in inventories at the end of Q3 (EUR1.15bn). As expected management trimmed 2012 guidance to EUR6.15bn sales (lower volumes in Europe, Russia) and EUR800m EBIT (in line with our estimates) and to >EUR1.2bn of net debt, which implies an over EUR0.6bn cash generation in Q4 attributable to working capital (EUR200m destocking started in July to end in Q1 2013 as only EUR130m wll be achievable in H2, EUR80m in Q4), while raw materials may be supportive already in Q4 (EUR38m tailwind) and reinforce in Q1 2013 (EUR40-50m). Management also said the may issue EUR1bn in bond within end 2013. We fine tune our 2012-14E EPS estimates (down 1.6%) after factoring in a slightly higher net debt at end 2012 (EUR1.24bn from previous EUR1.18bn) while confirming our 2012 EUR803m EBIT which implies a EUR210m (+9% QOQ) and a 13.4% margin (+100bp QOQ) in Q4. We trim our target price from EUR8.6 to EUR8.4 Opinion: We confirm our Hold rating as the stock is fairly valued at a 10.5x PE12E.


+39 02 8550 7216

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR17.70

Hold

Repsol Press reports Spanish government sees margin to negotiate YPF compensation

Oil & gas producersLarge capSpain DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters REP.MC Bloomberg REP SQ


Facts: The Spanish Foreign Minister said yesterday that there is margin to find a negotiated solution to YPF expropriation conflict. He also said that the expropriation "must be done through a regulated procedure and paying a fair price". Analysis: In our view, the government's comments are meaningful at this point. As the Argentinean press is also suggesting, we believe that Repsol is preparing the demand at the World Bank's International Center for Settlement of Investment disputes as the compulsory negotiation period unsuccessfully ended in 10 November. Repsol is seeking a USD10.5bn compensation, which is the result of applying the bylaws of YPF. In our view, this scenario is very unlikely, especially considering the tough macro situation of Argentina. In a best case, Repsol could gather the book value of YPF (USD2.2bn). Our target price don't include any compensation for YPF and no value for the 12% stake Repsol still holds in the company. Opinion: We reiterate our Hold rating.

Natalia Bobo Björk [email protected]

+34 91 436 5165

Target EUR2.30

Buy

Sacyr Company update NCG Bank continues to sell its stake, 4.073% left

Construction & materialsSmall & mid capSpain DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters SVO.MC Bloomberg SYV SQ

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 3,352.3 3,576.7 3,838.9EBITDA 558.3 683.8 757.1EBIT 242.8 323.2 360.2Pretax profit -891.6 36.6 80.8Net profit (adj) -645.8 43.0 74.3EPS (adj) -1.46 0.10 0.17DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00PE na 14.3 8.3EV/sales 2.8 2.6 2.4EV/EBITDA 17.1 13.7 12.1EV/EBIT 39.3 29.0 25.5Net debt/EBITDA 15.3 12.3 10.8FCF Yield 27.8% 20.9% 25.2%Net dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Facts: NCG Bank announced yesterday that it has continued selling shares of Sacyr. During the last week NCG has sold 1.4m shares, which represents an additional 0.324%, lowering its stake to 4.073%. This disposal comes after NCG had already sold the stake under the shareholder pact (4.464%). This is the seventh package sold in the last seven weeks, totalling 2.66% of Sacyr's capital Analysis: NCG Bank has its stake in Sacyr through two vehicles, the one that is now selling (NCG Corporacion Industrial) with the current 4.073% (6.733% originally) and through Participaciones Agrupadas in a shareholder pact with other banks/savings banks with a 7.697%. Although we initially thought that once NCG reached the 4.397% direct stake that falls within the shareholder pact it would not sell beyond, this latest disposal sends the message that NCG seems to have the intention to sell the entire stake, it still has 4.073% left (vs. the 2.66% sold in the last 7 weeks). NCG would need another 11-13 weeks to sell the entire stake. Opinion: Although we expect NCG to continue the disposal in the same orderly way, this latest move is not good news, as we should now expect it to sell the remaining 4.073% and thus dramatically increase the overhang risk. We estimate NCG Bank would need another 11-13 weeks to totally sell its stake. Although we see clear value upside, we believe this is now a great burden on the stock and recommend caution. We also believe the selling process might create buying opportunities.


+34 91 436 5175

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR30.00

Hold

Semperit Company update Q3 results in line with market expectations

Industrial engineeringSmall & mid capAustria DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters SMPV.VI Bloomberg SEM AV


Facts: The company reports Q3 results marginally ahead of our but bang in line with market expectations. The company reported sales of EUR206m, an EBIT of EUR20.2m and net income of EUR11.5m, which corresponds to EPS of EUR0.56 (Kepler: EUR0.55). Analysis: Divisional margins developed broadly as expected with Sempermed Q3 EBIT of EUR9.7m (10.1% margin), which however includes a positive one-off disposal effect. More details to come in a flash note later today. Opinion: Q3 numbers do not contain any surprises and are in line with street expectations. Accordingly, we expect to see a rather flattish share price reaction today. Our modelling does not include the impact of the Latexx Partners acquisition yet, as the tender offer is still running (closing by the end of November). Hence, we feel comfortable with our current FY estimates and leave our TP and rating unchanged. The company will host a conference call today at 15:00 CET.

Stephan Trubrich [email protected]

+43 1 537 12 4149

Target CHF93.00

Hold

Sonova Company update Results in line with our expectations

Health care equipment & servicesLarge capSwitzerland DJ Stoxx 600


Mkt. cap (m) CHF6,183 EV (m) CHF6,170


Reuters SOON.S Bloomberg SOON VX

FY ending: 31/03 2011 2012E 2013ESales (CHFm) 1,620 1,793 1,934EBITDA 352 401 466EBIT 293 349 403Pretax profit 277 349 403Net profit (adj) 251 297 343EPS (adj) 3.79 4.49 5.19DPS 2.20 3.20 2.08PE 22.9 20.7 17.9EV/sales 3.8 3.4 3.2EV/EBITDA 17.7 15.4 13.1EV/EBIT 21.3 17.7 15.1Net debt/EBITDA 0.1 0.0 -0.2FCF Yield 3.6% 3.1% 3.9%Net dividend yield 2.4% 3.4% 2.2%

Facts: Sonova reports H1 2012/13 in-line with our expectations on top-line and beating on EBITA level. Sales of hearing instruments came in at CHF801m, up 4.5% in lc and 2.4% organically versus Kepler estimate of CHF803m, up 5.5% and 3% organically. Consensus expectations were at CHF795.7m, up 4.3% in lc and 1.6% organically. Implant sales came in at CHF71m versus Kepler estimates of CHF65.6m and consensus at CHF62m. Total group sales came in at CHF872.4m up 7.9% in lc and 5.9% organically, versus Kepler estimate of 6.1% organic and consensus of 4.4% organic. Hearing instruments EBITA beat our and consensus expectations with CHF187.6m and a margin of 23.4% (Kepler CHF175.4m, 21.8%) helped by stronger FX impact. Group EBITA came in at CHF187m with a margin of 21.4%. Analysis: H1 results are in-line with expectations on sales growth development, but surprise with a strong margin. We estimate hearing aid organic sales growth stands at 2% versus Kepler estimate of 1.6%. The company reiterates guidance of 7-9% local currency growth (1-2% stemming from acquisitions) and EBITA local currency growth of 15-20%. Following H1 results the company is well on track to meet guidance. We don't expect any material upgrades apart from fx adjustments. Opinion: Hold, TP CHF93.

Maja Pataki [email protected]

+41 43 333 6623

13 November 2012


By company

Target CHF133.00

Hold

Swiss Life Q3 sales Weak sales, exceptional work on investments

InsuranceSmall & mid capSwitzerland DJ Stoxx 600


Mkt. cap (m) CHF3,740 RNAV CHF205.4


Reuters SLHN.VX Bloomberg SLHN VX

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ENet earned prem. (CHFm) 11,797.7 12,028.9 12,274.9Net financial income 4,290.7 4,447.6 4,641.9Net inc. before taxes 662.6 654.1 621.0Net income 502.8 496.3 471.2Adj. net income 502.8 496.3 471.2EPS (adj) 15.68 15.48 14.70EPS (old) 15.71 15.60 14.91Adj. P/E 7.4 7.5 7.9P/BV 0.44 0.44 0.42P/NAV 0.57 0.56 0.53P/EV 0.59 0.57 0.56Net dividend yield 3.9% 3.4% 3.4%

Facts: Sales at CHF12.8bn were in line with our expectations (CHF12.7bn) but better than consensus (CHF12.4bn). Switzerland grew lower than expected (0% on last year base, vs. the 2% we expected) and foreign operations stronger CHF5.9bn (Kepler CHF5.7bn). The solvency ratio improved to 238% (224% in H1 2012). Analysis: Growth is disappointingly low, but at least low-quality cross-border business growth slowed (+3% vs. +5% in H1). Switzerland disappointed with steady figures, but the good news is that France (-5% vs. -9% in H1) and Germany (-6% vs. -8% in H1) are recovering. AWD heavily disappointed once again (-13% sales), in line with expectations. The company even avoided disclosing any longer number of financial advisors (must be tremendous). All the average and bad news of the day is however wiped out by the tremendous investment performance of roughly 5% (3.8% not annualised in the 9M vs. 2.7% in 9M 2011) expected by year-end. This provides huge momentum. Opinion: Expectations were for an announcement on the goodwill writedown of AWD rebranding for 9M and for an announcement on cost savings at the investor day. The company seems to have decided to communicate all the good news in one go, which could propel the share price upward. Investors day on 28 November. Short term, we would suggest buying the stock ahead of the event as we think our target price should be overhauled by then (only short term) considerably.

Fabrizio Croce [email protected]

+41 43 333 6613

Target EUR1.10

Buy

Telecom Italia Company update Receives expression of interest from Naguib Sawiris

Telecommunication servicesLarge capItaly DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters TLIT.MI Bloomberg TIT IM


Facts: In a press release issued yesterday at open markets Telecom Italia confirmed it received an expression of interest from Naguib Sawiris (former main shareholder, through Weather Investments, of Wind, the second largest fixed line company in Italy) to invest in Telecom Italia through underwriting a new stock issuing aimed at bringing “new resources to be dedicated to growth projects”. According to the press (Il Sole 24 Ore), deadline of the offer is year-end and the investment from Sawiris would amount to EUR3bn. Analysis: The market speculated on Sawiris subscribing a reserved capital increase at Telecom Italia. However, according to Telecom Italia’s bylaws, the exclusion of pre-emption rights would be limited to 10% of capital, implying an investment between EUR1bn (if new shares are issued at market price) and EUR2bn (assuming shares are issued at Telco’s book value of EUR1.5 per TI share), with Telco being diluted from 22.4% to 20%. Hence, if the proposed investment reported by the press (EUR3bn) is correct, it would imply a capital increase opened to all shareholders, with dilution at Telco likely to be much higher than 10%. Opinion: In our view, Sawiris’s proposed investment may be aimed at funding the acquisition of GVT (EUR7-8bn) through a capital increase. GVT represents a perfect strategic fit for TIM Brasil, but a capital increase at Telecom Italia remains unlikely given the weak shareholding structure of Telco (54% Italian banks, 46% Telefonica).

Enrico Coco [email protected]

+39 02 8550 7227

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR83.00

Hold

Tod's Group Q3 preview Q3 results preview

Personal goodsSmall & mid capItaly DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters TOD.MI Bloomberg TOD IM

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 952.1 1,048.0 1,148.1EBITDA 249.4 285.1 317.1EBIT 207.3 241.6 273.0Pretax profit 207.3 241.6 273.0Net profit (adj) 139.5 162.6 183.8EPS (adj) 4.56 5.32 6.01DPS 2.56 2.98 3.00PE 20.6 17.7 15.6EV/sales 2.8 2.5 2.2EV/EBITDA 10.8 9.2 8.1EV/EBIT 13.0 10.9 9.4Net debt/EBITDA -0.6 -0.8 -0.9FCF Yield 4.3% 4.9% 5.6%Net dividend yield 2.7% 3.2% 3.2%

Facts: Tod’s will announced its Q3 2012 results today. A conference call will be held today at 5pm CET (Italy + 39 02 805 88 11, UK + 44 1 212818003, USA + 1 718 7058794; webcast http://services.choruscall.eu/links/tods121113.html). . Analysis: We estimate sales up 4.4% YOY to EUR271m, EBITDA up 6.4% YOY to EUR82m (margin at 30.1%, up 50bp YOY), EBIT up 6.6% YOY to EUR72m (margin at 26.7%, up 40bp YOY). We estimate a net cash position at EUR110m at end-September, up 38% QOQ mainly thanks to the cash flow generation. Opinion: Focus will be on current trading in Europe and especially in Italy, after sales went down 25% YOY in Q2 mainly due to the tough economic conditions and to the rationalization of the Italian wholesale distribution, however counterbalanced by the strong double-digit growth in some foreign countries (+12% YOY in Europe, +30% YOY in America, +42% YOY in the ROW). Q3 results should underline a decrease in sales growth vs. Q2 as the Wholesales channel, which is performing worse than Retail, should weigh about 60% of total sales. Our FY 2012 estimates point to a sales increase of 6.5% YOY up to EUR952m and to an EBIT of EUR207m (below consensus) with a flat YOY margin at 21.8%.

Daniele Ridolfi [email protected]

+39 02 8550 7219

Target CHF14.00

Reduce

UBS Press reports German UBS clients charged with tax evasion

BanksLarge capSwitzerland DJ Stoxx 600


Mkt. cap (m) CHF55,221 Cur. year ROE -1.2%


Reuters UBSN.VX Bloomberg UBSN VX

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ERevenues (CHFm) 25,402 27,695 29,067GOP 3,010 5,231 7,091Current profit 2,754 5,045 7,000Net profit (dcl) -611 3,932 5,578Net profit (adj) -611 3,932 5,578EPS (adj) -0.17 1.03 1.46EPS (old) 0.82 1.21 1.47PE na 14.0 9.9P/OPBRP 18.2 10.5 7.7P/Current profit 19.9 10.9 7.8P/BOOK 1.05 1.07 0.99Net dividend yield 0.7% 0.7% 5.6%

Facts: Yesterday, the German police searched the houses of several hundred UBS clients on suspicion of tax evasion. The evidence for the searches came from a data CD, which the state of North Rhine Westphalia bought a few months ago with client data. The search was broadly covered by the German media with reports in the main evening TV news and confirmed by the the prosecutor in Bochum, which is responsible for tax evasion. The prosecutor also announced that further searches might follow as the CD is being evaluated. Analysis: This should lead to further asset withdrawals of undeclared money. Reportedly there is still EUR200bn German money in Switzerland and the pressure is heating up. At the same time, Germany is preparing a charge against UBS with the allegation, the bank and its advisors actively helped in tax evasion. Opinion: UBS share price shot up recently after the announcement to put almost half of the bank's RWA into run-off. We believe investors are too optimistic about the remaining wealth management, which through the erosion of the European offshore operations will undergo significant changes in the coming years.


+49 69 7569 6119

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR36.00

Reduce

UCB Company update Full pIII Cimzia data in axSpA confirm April headline data

Pharmaceuticals & biotechnologyLarge capBelgium DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters UCB.BR Bloomberg UCB BB

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 3,018 3,155 3,317EBITDA 615 690 802EBIT 375 445 556Pretax profit 190 222 342Net profit (adj) 281 307 397EPS (adj) 1.59 1.74 2.25DPS 0.92 1.01 1.30PE 26.9 24.6 19.0EV/sales 3.1 2.9 2.8EV/EBITDA 15.2 13.5 11.4EV/EBIT 25.0 20.9 16.5Net debt/EBITDA 2.7 2.3 1.8FCF Yield 2.3% 3.0% 4.0%Net dividend yield 2.1% 2.3% 3.0%

Facts: After positive headline results were reported in April, UCB now presents Cimzia’s full pIII RAPID-axSpA data in active axial spondyloarthritis: Cimzia met the primary efficacy endpoint ie the ASAS20 response rate at week 12 (at least 20% change in the ASAS20 improvement criteria). Clinical improvements were statistically significant in both the 200mg twice monthly and the 400mg monthly dosing arms vs. placebo (57.7% for 200mg 2MT, 63.6% for 400 QMT vs. 38.3% for placebo, n=111, 107 and 107, p<0.05). Improvements were observed as early as week one (40.5% for 200mg 2MT, 34.6% for 400mg QMT vs. placebo. Analysis: Adverse events occurred in 70.4% of Cimzia- vs. 62.6% of placebo-treated patients, serious AEs were equal for Cimzia and placebo groups (4.7%) while serious infections occurred in 1.1% of Cimzia- vs. 0.1% placebo-treated patients. The most common adverse events (>5% of patients taking Cimzia or placebo) were nasopharyngitis, upper respiratory tract infection, increased creatine phosphokinase and headache. Opinion: The full details of the RAPID-axSpA (to be filed before year end) adds to the growing body of evidence that Cimzia should be able to achieve the company’s peak sales target of >EUR1.5bn, equivalent to c4% share in the RA market. We discount EUR1.64bn in Cimzia sales by 2020, corresponding to a 17% CAGR 2012-2020. However, with a 24.6x PE 2013, 13.5x EV/EBITDA 2013 for a 3% FCF/EV and a 2% dividend yield, UCB trades at roughly a 100% premium to the EU pharma sector.

Fabian Wenner, PhD [email protected]

+41 43 333 6624

Target EUR25.00

Buy

Union Financière de France Q3 sales Q3 revenues down 7.7% after minus 10% for H1

BanksSmall & mid capFrance DJ Stoxx 600


Mkt. cap (m) EUR284 Cur. year ROE 17.0%


Reuters UFFP.PA Bloomberg UFF FP

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ERevenues (EURm) 148 155 157GOP 27 29 30Current profit 27 30 30Net profit (dcl) 17 19 20Net profit (adj) 17 19 20EPS (adj) 1.08 1.20 1.22EPS (old) 1.56 1.74 2.11PE 16.3 14.6 14.4P/OPBRP 10.7 9.6 9.4P/Current profit 10.7 9.6 9.4P/BOOK 2.89 2.83 2.81Net dividend yield 6.1% 6.8% 6.9%

Facts: Q3 net banking income were EUR32.3m, -7.7%, slightly below our estimate at EUR33.1m, -5.5%, but slightly better than the trend posted at the end of June (-10%): EUR10.6m in placing fees (-13%, versus -11% exp.) thanks to a net collect at EUR10m (closed to EUR20m in Q3 2011), and EUR21.6m in management fees (-6% versus -4% exp.) due to a decline of average funds managed and negative mix-effect. Nine months revenues were EUR102.0m, -9.3%, net collect at EUR35m. AUM were EUR7,100m compared with EUR6,800m at the end of June. Analysis: Like for 2011 and 2010, it is highly likely that UFF will post higher revenues in Q4 due to the end of investment products in the real estate sector: the end of Scellier Scheme on 31 December (appealing tax credit for investors), which are expected to boost placing fees during the period. Therefore we have maintained our 2012 ates: EUR148m expected in revenues (-7.7% YOY, o/w -13% for placing fees and -3.4% for management fees), EUR7,120m in AUMs (+7.5% YOY), and EUR26.5m expected in EBIT (-33%). Opinion: Amid tough economic conditions and in a period of presidential elections in France, it was clear that 2012 would be a difficult year for UFF, which is penalised by wait and see attitude from investors. We expect a gradual improvement of the company performance in parallel with better visibility on fiscal conditions in France. In light of the share price performance we estimate that the worst-case scenario is already priced in (limited downside). Buy reiterated.

Claire Deray [email protected]

+33 1 5365 3538 Kepler Capital Markets is a liquidity provider in relation to price stabilisation activities for the issuer to provide liquidity in such instruments.

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR5.40

Buy

United Power Q3 earnings A reassuring quarter

Industrial engineeringSmall & mid capGermany FTSE Euro First 300




Reuters UP7G.DE Bloomberg UP7 GY


Facts: United Power reported sales of EUR32.0m (YOY +22%) and and adj. (and reported) EBIT of EUR4.96m resulting in an EBIT margin of 15.5% and an EPS of EUR0.34. EBIT was 6% ahead of our expectations and EBIT margin 20 basis points above our assumptions. 2012 outlook was kept unchanged. United Power continues to foresee a sales growth of 10% and an adj. EBIT margin, which is somewhat lower than last years 16.6% (9M 12 now 16.1%). FCF reached a level of EUR4.2m in Q3 and nearly EUR12m for the 9M period. In turn net cash position stands at EUR33.7m, or EUR2.74 per share. Analysis: The positive development was like in Q2 driven by commercial generators which grew by more than 70% in Q3 YOY, while smaller residential generators declined by 10% YOY. With respect to regions, China and Europe posted good growth in Q3, while the US was trailing in the quarter. However, for the 9m period, the US is still the strongest growing region as new customer relationships could be generated. Capacity continues to be managed carefully as the workforce is further reduced sequentially by 8%. Opinion: Q3 is reassuring and the second quarter with no disappointment. 2012 sales outlook looks achievable as the company cites additional demand from the US as a result of Hurricane Sandy (but without quantification). No news yet on dividends and expansion capex but Q3 FCF generation makes us feel very comfortable with our internal funding assumption. Buy

Stefan Augustin [email protected]

+49 69 7569 6171 Kepler Capital Markets has been lead manager or co-lead manager in a public offering of the issuer’s financial instruments during the last twelve months.Kepler Capital Markets is a liquidity provider in relation to price stabilisation activities for the issuer to provide liquidity in such instruments.Kepler Capital Markets acts as a corporate broker or a sponsor or a sponsor specialist (in accordance with the local regulations) to this company.Kepler Capital Markets may expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months.

Target EUR50.00

Hold

Vopak Company update Q3 results about in line, FY guidance maintained

Support servicesSmall & mid capNetherlands DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters VOPA.AS Bloomberg VPK NA


Facts: Vopak reported Q3 results that were about in line. Group EBITDA (consolidated EBITDA + the net profit contribution from associates) amounted to EUR195m (+19%) with group EBIT at EUR144m (+19%). In terms of divisions, EBIT rose 21% in the Netherlands, mainly due to capacity expansion (utilisation fell from 95% to 88%). In Asia EBIT grew 26% due to capacity expansion, higher utilisation (94% vs 92%) and forex gains. Growth was 5% in the Americas. In Europe EBIT fell 6% due to lower demand with utilisation down from 91% to 87%. Overall utilisation was 91% in Q3 vs 90% in Q2 and 93% in 2011Q3. Gross capacity grew 10% to 29.9m m3. FY guidance for group EBITDA has been maintained at EUR725-800m after EUR573m in the first 9 months. Analysis: Group EBIT matched consensus expectations where we were at EUR147m. Europe disappointed due to increased competition (Talinn), lower demand and higher pre-operating expenses, but this was partly compensated by better Asian results and lower holding cost. In terms of capacity only one new project was announced (Brazil). In total 4.7m m3 is under construction. The schedule for 7 projects was maintained, for the 7 other projects there was a delay. Management decline to make detailed statements on the progress in Hainan and Pengerang (capacity each 1.3m m3, both due 2014), but did say that they experience an engaged market with huge interest for both. Management failed to narrow the FY guidance range (Kepler EUR771m, consensus EUR774m). Opinion: No change. Hold

Andre Mulder [email protected]

+31 20 563 2380

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR7.50

Buy

Vueling Market update EU suspends ETS application for international flights

Travel & leisureSmall & mid capSpain DJ Stoxx 600


Mkt. cap (m) EUR206 EV (m) -EUR98


Reuters VULG.MC Bloomberg VLG SQ

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 1,109.8 1,216.1 1,283.2EBITDA 30.1 29.6 33.6EBIT 23.3 22.5 26.2Pretax profit 32.6 33.0 38.0Net profit (adj) 22.8 23.1 26.6EPS (adj) 0.76 0.77 0.89DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00PE 9.0 8.9 7.7EV/sales na na naEV/EBITDA na na naEV/EBIT na na naNet debt/EBITDA na na naFCF Yield 16.4% 15.0% 17.3%Net dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Facts: The EC has announced the suspension of the inclusion of international aviation in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). This suspension will only affect flights to and from non-EU countries, while the details on how the suspension will effectively be put in place are still pending. This is a reaction to the talks with other countries towards supervision from UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), thus becoming a broad base scheme and not only on a EU level. Analysis: This is temporary good news for the industry as a whole, as it will remove one of its costs for some time and also make it more equal among all airlines in the future. However, the impact on Vueling will be quite limited since over 90% of its flights are within the EU and therefore not affected by this suspension. We recall that total ETS costs for Vueling represent less than 1% of its total cash costs, thus the impact of this change is very limited. In any case, this move by the EC does not point to a removal of this cost, but just global agreement on its application. Opinion: Positive but with limited impact for Vueling.

Joaquin Garcia-Romanillos [email protected]

+34 91 436 5169

Target EUR7.00

Hold

Wienerberger AG Company update Q3 operating results slightly above expectations but net income below

Construction & materialsSmall & mid capAustria DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters WBSV.VI Bloomberg WIE AV

FY ending: 31/12 2012E 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 2,372.6 2,643.0 2,699.4EBITDA 278.6 311.9 329.9EBIT 48.6 81.9 99.9Pretax profit 39.3 25.4 44.7Net profit (adj) -42.8 -11.7 4.2EPS (adj) 0.00 -0.10 0.04DPS 0.12 0.15 0.20PE na na 159.2EV/sales 0.9 0.8 0.7EV/EBITDA 7.5 6.5 5.9EV/EBIT 42.8 24.9 19.5Net debt/EBITDA 3.0 2.5 2.1FCF Yield 18.1% 13.7% 21.7%Net dividend yield 2.1% 2.6% 3.5%

Facts: The company reported operating Q3 results bang in line with our estimates and slightly ahead of consensus. The company reported Q3 revenues of EUR755m (Kepler: EUR763m), an EBITDA of EUR101m (Kepler: EUR101m, consensus EUR97.8m) and EBIT post restructuring costs of EUR43.6m (Kepler: EUR44.1m, consensus: EUR40.7m). Net income post hybrid amounts to EUR14.6m (Kepler: EUR17.8m, consensus: 13.9m), which corresponds to EPS of EUR.13 (Kepler: EUR0.15, consensus: EUR0.14). Our deviation on net income mainly stems from lower estimates for income from associates. Analysis: Clay markets developed as flagged in our preview with a softening in Europe, which was offset by a positive development in North America and the consolidation of Pipelife. On further restructuring and P/L impact, the company guides for EUR13m cost savings, as well as non-recurring cash costs of roughly EUR14m and write-downs of EUR15m in 2012E. For 2012E, management expects operating EBITDA at a 2011 level, which is around EUR260m (Kepler: EUR279m). No specific guidance is given for 2013 due to limited visibility. Opinion: Following the company's Q3 results release, we have to slightly adjust our FY estimates. The company will host a conference call today at 14:00 CET. We expect a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction today.

Stephan Trubrich [email protected]

+43 1 537 12 4149

13 November 2012


By company

Target EUR37.00

Buy

Wincor Nixdorf Earnings release Q1 to see good hardware sales

Software & computer servicesSmall & mid capGermany DJ Stoxx 600




Reuters WING.DE Bloomberg WIN GY

FY ending: 30/09 2012 2013E 2014ESales (EURm) 2,343.0 2,401.6 2,521.7EBITDA 174.0 191.5 221.3EBIT 101.0 126.5 156.3Pretax profit 90.0 116.5 147.3Net profit (adj) 62.6 81.1 102.7EPS (adj) 2.10 2.73 3.45DPS 1.05 1.36 1.73PE 15.9 12.3 9.7EV/sales 0.5 0.5 0.5EV/EBITDA 7.3 6.5 5.5EV/EBIT 12.6 9.8 7.8Net debt/EBITDA 1.3 1.0 0.8FCF Yield 4.8% 8.1% 7.5%Net dividend yield 3.1% 4.1% 5.2%

Facts: Wincor Nixdorf reported preliminary figures for FY 2011-12, which were in line with our and consensus estimates. Q4 showed good hardware sales (+11% YOY) and strong growth in the US (+20% YOY) and Asia (+37%). The company expects FY 2012-13 to be able to grow sales by 2% and reach and EBIT of EUR120m, including further restructuring charges of EUR20m. Further the company outlined in the conference call, that it expects to be able to grow it business in Q1 and that the pipeline for the hardware sales is good, which would be the explanation for the rather high inventory levels. Analysis: FY 2012-13 EBIT outlook was below our (EUR140m) and consensus (EUR126m) estimates. As a result we lower our EBIT forecast by 11% for FY2012-13 and 10% by FY 2013-14, still staying above the company's guidance. Wincor reports to be on track with the reorganization of its sales and service network and one could take the positive sales development of Q4, that the company had first successes in its push for emerging markets. Consequently our sales forecast for FY2012-13 and FY2013-14 inch up by 1% and 2% respectively. Opinion: Visibility for Wincor's management is up to 6 month. Therefore we believe the market weighs the near term positive development in Q1 more than the rather disappointing outlook for the full year. Our DCF based target price stays unchanged at EUR37. Buy.

Stefan Augustin [email protected]

+49 69 7569 6171

13 November 2012


Automobiles & parts Sector information: Cautious feedback from supplier meetings at German Equity Forum

Facts: Seeing various German suppliers (SHW, Grammer and PWO) at the German Equity Forum produced the key info that: 1) call offs for Q4 have been reduced by OEMs; 2) duration of Christmas factory holidays of German OEMs is unclear as of now, adding uncertainty to Q4; and 3) no rebounding of European truck demand is anticipated for 2013E. Analysis: This information tallies with recent statements given by the German auto industry, specifically suppliers, and stands in the same line as comments made since late September, back then sparking our adoption of a more cautious stance on German OEMs. All in all, the picture is being underscored that tar balls are now also being washed onto the beaches of the German auto industry as growth in exports markets (NAFTA, Asia) is not sufficient anymore to compensate the continuing decay of demand in Europe without any troubles. While this bodes ill for Q4 production volumes and pricing, we expect an extension of German factory holidays over Christmas as compared to a year ago, also foreshadowing negatively on Q1 production volumes. Opinion: This is negative news for the sector. We suggest to pick companies with a largely refreshed product portfolio (BMW), which in our view gives better relative resilience of pricing, and structural growth (Conti, ElringKlinger).

Michael Raab, CFA [email protected]

+49 69 7569 6157

Banks Sector information: German online banks: solid and stable dividend payers

Facts: The two large listed German online brokers DAB and Comdirect presented their case on the Eigenkapital Forum in Frankfurt on Monday. They confirm our view that these are the safest plays among the European banks with high, stable dividends. Analysis: Their business is based on short balance sheets with high deposit overhangs. Capital and Basel III is not a problem for them as they have high core capital ratios (well above 10%), which will not be affected by the new rules. There is practically no credit risk as the only customer lending business is lombard, which traditionally has low defaults. The revenue generation might appear volatile, given that it is based on brokerage with its currently low turnover volumes, but both banks managed to stabilise this through a large share of mutual fund trailer fees and regular recurrent savings plan contributions from their customers. As the business is entirely conducted online, the cost base is small. Marketing expenses are steered in line with the market opportunities, which allows a flexible policy. Between them, both banks only had one loss-making quarter (DAB in Q3 2008) since 2003. Opinion: As their business growth doesn't require any earnings retention, both banks have fully distributed their EPS as cash dividends since 2004. This brings the yield for both banks above 6%, the highest in the sector (except for some Spanish banks, but they pay mostly in script). Our favourite between the two is DAB, which is slightly cheaper and has a higher yield.


+49 69 7569 6119

13 November 2012


Banks Sector information: Spanish new house sales figures for September: not good enough

Facts: According to the Spanish Statistical Institute INE and based on the Official Hosuing Registry Information, 12,747 (-2% YoY) new houses were sold in Spain last September for a total 25,985 (flat YoY) old and new houses transacted. Analysis: This would bring the Q2 2012 new house sales to around 40,000 units; a modest 2% YoY drop and fairly in line with the previous five quarters average. The above information would lead to a full year new house sales estimate of 154,000 units (roughly worth EUR25bn at the current level of average selling prices ; EUR160,000 per unit); down 13% YoY and roughly 45% under the peak levels recorded back in 2007. Opinion: Though there might be some distorting impact from the announced September VAT raise which also affected new house sales, its certainly looks as if sales may have reached a plateau after a continuous five-year decline. The snag is that the poor sales levels recorded today are clearly insufficient to solve the large (around the 750,00 units) stock overhang problem which is strangling the real estate and financial sector.

Alejandro Ruyra [email protected]

+34 91 436 5167

Chemicals Sector information: K+S Q3 7% below consensus, FY guidance at lower end, low 2013 guidance

Facts: K+S reported Q3 numbers this morning. Sales were up 7.4% at EUR916.6m (consensus EUR867.9m). EBITDA fell 9.9% to EUR213.8m (consensus EUR223.5m) leaving margins at 23.3% (consensus 25.8%). Adjusted group earnings from continued operations were down 16.6% at EUR98.9m and 8% below consensus estimates of EUR107.6m. Adjusted EPS from continued operations fell 16.1% to EUR0.52 and were 7% below consensus estimates of EUR0.56. The company now sees FY 2012 sales at the lower end of its initial guidance of EUR3.9-4.2bn and EBIT I at EUR820m (previous guidance EUR820-900m), which would be 9.5% below 2011 level. Consensus currently estimates sales of EUR3.97bn and EBIT I of EUR848m (3.5% above the new guidance). Analysis: For 2013 K+S expects a tangible increase in global potash sales based on a price level for agricultural raw materials. In the salts business the company sees sales at multi-year average after below average demand in 2012. K+S expect their sales to increase slightly in 2013 and see a possibility of moderately higher group earnings for 2013. The basis for this outlook is attractive agricultural prices, flat sales volume and slightly lower average prices in Potash and Magnesium Products business. Furthermore, K+S sees significantly higher sales volumes of crystallised salt, an improved financial result and a stable tax rate. 2013 consensus currently sees a sales increase of 6% and group earnings up 14%. Opinion: Hold, TP EUR40.

Bettina Edmondston [email protected]

+41 43 333 6617

13 November 2012


Personal goods Sector information: US September watch sales ease, jewellery improves; mood seen better

Facts: US same store September watch retail sales fell 2%, according to the LGI Network. Branded jewellery sales rose 5%. Separately, a Q3 survey of affluent US consumers showed a sharp rebound in confidence and buying intentions. China October jewellery sales rose 10%, according to the Chinese government. Analysis: The survey by Unity Marketing showed over half of affluent consumers felt better off than 12 months ago, the highest since Q1 2011. The September US watch same stores data reverses a 3% improvement seen in August, the first positive month since January. Regarding the China data, we continue to use jewellery segment as a proxy for high end watch (and jewellery) demand) and the 3-4x GDP multiplier seen up until 12 months ago in the segment has clearly broken down (Swiss watch exports to China are running at their weakest level since 2009) amid political and economic uncertainty. Opinion: The data is going to remain patchy but we suspect sentiment, as seen by the survey, has probably turned. We note a strong showing at Christie's Geneva watch auction 12 November, an improvement from auctions going into the summer. We believe the watch makers should benefit from the leadership transition in China (expected Thursday), which should restore confidence and we see watch data from the greater China region improving next year. Richemont Buy CHF76 target price, Swatch Group Buy CHF475 target price.

Jon Cox [email protected]

+41 43 333 6607

Kepler Capital Markets

Research ratings and important disclosures

Rating ratio Kepler Capital Markets Q2 2012

Rating breakdown A B

Buy 58.9% 0.0% Hold 27.5% 0.0% Reduce 12.3% 0.0% Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer 1.4% 0.0% Total 100.0% 0.0% Source: Kepler Capital Markets A: % of all research recommendations B: % of issuers to which Investment Banking Services are supplied

From 9 May 2006, KCM’s rating system consists of three ratings: Buy, Hold and Reduce. For a Buy rating, the minimum expected upside is 10% in absolute terms over 12 months. For a Hold rating the expected upside is below 10% in absolute terms. A Reduce rating is applied when there is expected downside on the stock. Target prices are set on all stocks under coverage, based on a 12-month view. Equity ratings and valuations are issued in absolute terms, not relative to any given benchmark.

Analyst disclosures

The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover.

Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each equity research analyst(s) listed on the front-page of this report, principally responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report hereby certifies that, with respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the equity research analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about those issuer(s) or securities. Each equity research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that equity research analyst in this research report.

Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of the research report attest that no part of the analyst’(s’) compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed by the research analyst’s(s’) in the research report. The research analyst’s(s’) compensation is, however, determined by the overall economic performance of KCM.

Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of KCM, which is a non-US affiliate and parent company of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. a SEC registered and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity Research Analysts employed by KCM, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Please refer to www.keplercapitalmarkets.com for further information relating to research and conflict of interest management.

Regulators

Location Regulator Abbreviation

KCM France Autorité des Marchés Financiers AMF KCM España Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores CNMV KCM Germany Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht BaFin KCM Italia Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa CONSOB KCM Nederland Autoriteit Financiële Markten AFM KCM Switzerland Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority FINRA Kepler Capital Markets, London Financial Services Authority FSA Kepler Capital Markets, Austria Austrian Financial Services Authority FMA

KCM is authorised and regulated by both Banque de France and Autorité des Marchés Financiers.

For further information relating to research recommendations and conflict of interest management please refer to www.keplercapitalmarkets.com.

http://www.keplercapitalmarkets.com/

Kepler Capital Markets

Legal and disclosure information Other disclosures

This product is not for retail clients or private individuals.

The information contained in this publication was obtained from various sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by Kepler Capital Markets (KCM). KCM does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of such information and does not accept any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of such information, except to the extent required by applicable law.

This publication is a brief summary and does not purport to contain all available information on the subjects covered. Further information may be available on

request. This report may not be reproduced for further publication unless the source is quoted.

This publication is for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities, or

as an invitation, inducement or intermediation for the sale, subscription or purchase of any securities, or for engaging in any other transaction. This publication is

not for private individuals.

Any opinions, projections, forecasts or estimates in this report are those of the author only, who has acted with a high degree of expertise. They reflect only the current views of the author at the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. KCM has no obligation to update, modify or amend this publication or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient of this publication in the event that any matter, opinion, projection, forecast or estimate contained herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is withdrawn. The analysis, opinions, projections, forecasts and estimates expressed in this report were in no way affected or influenced by the issuer. The author of this publication benefits financially from the overall success of KCM.

The investments referred to in this publication may not be suitable for all recipients. Recipients are urged to base their investment decisions upon their own appropriate investigations that they deem necessary. Any loss or other consequence arising from the use of the material contained in this publication shall be the sole and exclusive responsibility of the investor and KCM accepts no liability for any such loss or consequence. In the event of any doubt about any investment, recipients should contact their own investment, legal and/or tax advisers to seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing. Some of the investments mentioned in this publication may not be readily liquid investments. Consequently it may be difficult to sell or realise such investments. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance of an investment. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount invested. Some investments discussed in this publication may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value which may cause losses. International investing includes risks related to political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries, as well as currency risk.

To the extent permitted by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss, damages, costs or prejudices whatsoever arising from the use of this publication or its contents.

KCM and its affiliates have implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research

business, which are available upon request. The KCM research analysts and other staff involved in issuing and disseminating research reports operate

independently of KCM Investment Banking business. Information barriers and procedures are in place between the research analysts and staff involved in securities

trading for the account of KCM or clients to ensure that price sensitive information is handled according to applicable laws and regulations.

Country and region disclosures

United Kingdom: This document is for persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients only and is exempt from the general restriction in section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 on the communication of invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is being distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons of a kind described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) and 49(2) (High net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. Any investment to which this document relates is available only to such persons, and other classes of person should not rely on this document.

United States: Kepler Capital Markets S.A. (KCM) is the parent company and 100% owner of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. KCM maintains offices in Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Frankfurt, Germany; Geneva and Zurich, Switzerland; London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; Milan, Italy; and New York, United States. Specific address/location information is available at www.keplercapitalmarkets.com. This research is distributed in the United States by the entity that published the research as disclosed on the front page of this report to “major U.S. institutional investors,” as defined under Rule 15a-6 promulgated under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and as interpreted by the staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This research is also distributed in the United States to other institutional investors by Kepler Capital Markets, Inc., who accepts responsibility for the contents of the research, subject to the qualifications stated in this publication which are hereby incorporated. U.S. persons seeking to execute a transaction in the securities discussed in this research should contact Kepler Capital Markets, Inc., 600 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022, phone (212) 710-7600. Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and is a FINRA member firm. Nothing herein excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer that Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. has under applicable law. Investment products provided by or through Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. are not FDIC insured, may lose value and are not guaranteed by the entity that published the research as disclosed on the front page or Kepler Capital Markets, Inc.. Investing in non-U.S. Securities may entail certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements. The information available about non-U.S. companies may be limited, and non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to the same uniform auditing and reporting standards as U.S. companies. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies. Analysts employed by non-U.S. broker-dealers are not required to take the FINRA analyst exam.

France: This publication is issued and distributed in accordance with art. L 544-1 and seq of the Code Monétaire et Financier and with the articles 321-122 to 321-138 of the General Regulations of the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF).

Germany: This report may be amended, supplemented or updated in such manner and as frequently as the author deems.

Italy: This document is for Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients only as defined by the CONSOB regulation 16190/07 (art. 26 and art. 58). Reports on companies listed on the Italian exchange are approved and distributed to over 500 clients in accordance with art. 69 of CONSOB Regulation 11971/1999 for enforcement of the Consolidation Act on financial brokerage (legislative decree 24/2/1998). According to this article KCM, branch of Milano warns on potential specific interests in securities mentioned. Equities discussed are covered on a continuous basis with regular reports at results release. Reports are released on the date shown on cover and distributed via print and email. KCM branch of Milano analysts are not affiliated with any professional groups or organisations. All estimates are by KCM unless otherwise stated.

Spain: Reports on Spanish companies are issued and distributed by KCM, branch of Madrid, registered in Spain by the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) in the foreign investments firms registry (member of the Madrid exchange). Reports and any supplemental documentation or information have not been filed with the CNMV. Neither verification nor authorisation or compliance revision by the CNMV regarding this document and related documentation or information has been made.

Switzerland: This publication is intended to be distributed to professional investors in circumstances such that there is no public offer. This publication does not constitute a prospectus within the meaning of Articles 652a and 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations.

Canada: The information provided in this publication is not intended to be distributed or circulated in any manner in Canada and therefore should not be construed as any kind of financial recommendation or advice provided within the meaning of Canadian securities laws.

Other countries: Laws and regulations of other countries may also restrict the distribution of this report. Persons in possession of this document should inform themselves about possible legal restrictions and observe them accordingly.

http://www.keplercapitalmarkets.com/

www.keplercapitalmarkets.com

Amsterdam Kepler Capital Markets Benelux De Entree 89 Toren A 19th Floor 1101 BH Amsterdam Zuid-Oost +31 20 563 2365 Frankfurt Kepler Capital Markets Germany Taunusanlage 18 60325 Frankfurt +49 69 756960 Geneva Kepler Capital Markets SA Route de crassier 11 1262 Eysins +41 22361 5151 London

Kepler Capital Markets UK Providian House 16-18 Monument Street EC3R 8AJ London +44 203 350 5000 Madrid Kepler Capital Markets Espana Alcala 95 28009 Madrid +3491 4365100 Milan Kepler Capital Markets Italia Corso Europa 2 20122 Milano +39 02 855 07 1

Munich Kepler Capital Markets Germany Maximilianstrasse 35A 80539 Munich +49 89 2421 8147 New York Kepler Capital Markets Inc. 600 Lexington Avenue 10022 New York, NY USA +1 2127107600 Paris Kepler Capital Markets France 112 Avenue Kleber 75016 Paris +33 1 53653500 Vienna

Kepler Capital Markets Austria Regus Vienna Stock Exchange Schottenring 16/2 1010 Vienna +43 1 537124147 Zurich Kepler Capital Markets Switzerland Stadelhoferstrasse 22 Postfach 8024 Zurich +41 433336666

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