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Document of RE URN TOThe World Bank REP Ci -9 DT' 6S(
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ONE E WEEK
RewrtNo.P-2218 -NTR
REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION
OF TtE
PRESIDENT OF THE
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
TO THE
EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS
ON A
PROPOSED CREDIT
TO
THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER
FOR A
FORESTRY PROJECT
May 4, 1978
This document has a resttrctei distribution and may be tused by recipients only In the perfonnsace oftheir official duties. Its contents may ..;>t otherwise be dipciosed without World Bank authorization.
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Currency Unit = CFAF Francs (CFAF)US$1.00 = CFAF 245CFAF 1.00 = US$0.00408
FISCAL YEAR
Republic of Niger: October 1 - September 30
FORESTRY MEASURES
1 stere =1 Im3 os staked roundwood 31 stere fuelwood = 0.65 m of staked roundwood - m (r)1 stere fuelwood = 0.50 tins 31 metric ton fuelwood = 1.33 m of staked roundwood - m (r)1 metric ton fuelwood = 2 steres1 cubic meter fuelwood = 1.5 steres1 cubic meter fuelwood = 0.75 ton
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES EQUIVALENTS
1 meter (m) = 39.37 inches1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 mile1 hectare (ha) 2 = 2.47 acres
1 square kilometer (km ) = 0.386 square mile1 kilogram (kg) = 2.205 pounds
1 metric ton (t)3 = 2,205 pounds1 cubic meter (m ) = 35.31 cubic feet
ABBREVIATIONS
CILSS - Comite Permanent Interetats de Lutte Contre la Secheresse au SahelFAC - Fonds d'Aide et de CooperationFAO - Food and Agriculture OrganizationIBRD - International Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentIDA - International Development AssociationINRAN - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique du NigerIPDR - Institut Pratique de Developpement RuralONERSOL - Office Nigerien de l'Energie SolaireUNDP - United Nations Development ProgramUSAID - United States Agency for International Development
FOR OfFCIAL U ONLY
NIGER
FORESTRY PROJECT
Credit and ProJect Summary
Borrower: Republic of Niger
Amount: US$4.5 million
Terms: Standard
Project This is a pilot and technical assistance project which wouldDescription: assist Government in preventing further environmental disrup-
tion due to progressive destruction of the natural forestcover, and improving fuelwood and building pole suppliesespecially for the urban areas. The Project would establish400 ha of pilot irrigated tree plantations and 700 ha ofpilot rainfed tree plantations; provide appropriate means toimprove the current rural forestry activities of the ForestryDepartment; finance a training program in extension services;provide assistance to research; establish a workshop mainten-ance unit. The project would establish, within the ForestryDepartment, a Project Unit to assist in coordinating andmonitoring the various project activities, monitoring projectprogress, gathering economic data and results of experiments,planning rural forest programs, and preparing a second phaseproject suitable for Bank support. Consultant serviceswould be available to the unit to carry out complementarystudies on economic, sociological and agricultural aspects.
The project is intended to provide a sound basis for proceedingwith larger scale national development of the forestry re-sources of Niger through expanded plantations and rural forestryprojects. The project will focus on the problems of deforesta-tion and environmental deterioration. It will help to identifyat the village level the incentives and development capacityneeded to secure the cooperation of the rural people in imple-menting the rural forestry programs, and to develop a basictechnical package and improved techniques in reafforestationand conservation for the supply of fuel wood and buildingwood for the urban centers and for the protection againstfurther environmental disruption. It also aims at strengthen-ing the national forestry services.
The project will present the inevitable technical and economicrisks associated with such pilot activities. There is therisk that introducing exotic species may not prove to be fullyadaptable to the arid conditions prevailing in Niger; furtherstudies might also reveal that the economic costs of proceeding
This document hs trited distributhoe ad u be used by fCiISDI only In the pfrfonc.of their ollcil dutie. Its contents ma rootb rl_*o be diksbd witholt World D-k authorition.
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with irrigated plantations on a commercial scale is too high.However there is little risk that'the project's institutionalbuilding aspects will not be justified because even at thisstage, it is possible to clearly identify alternative follow-upinvestment projects in rural areas.
Estimated Project Costs (excluding taxes):
Local Foreign Total----- …US$ '000-
Pilot Irrigated Tree Plantations 560 1,766 2,326Pilot Rainfed Tree Plantations 351 314 665Assistance to Rural Forestry Activities 104 247 351Training in Extension Services 43 18 61Assistance to Research 35 47 82Workshop Maintenance Unit 61 90 151Planning, Management and Monitoring Unit 97 364 461
Total Base Line Costs 1,251 2,846 4,097
Physical Contingencies 109 354 463Price Contingencies 213 501 714
Total Project Costs 1,573 3,701 5,274
Percent 29.8 70.2 100.0
Financing The proposed IDA credit of US$4.5 million would finance 85 per-Plan: cent of project costs (net of taxes) representing 100 percent
of the estimated foreign exchange component plus about 50percent of the local costs. The Government would finance theremainder of local costs estimated at US$0.8 million equivalent.
EstimatedDisbursements:
FY FY FY FY1978 1979 1980 1981----------US$ Million----------
Annual - 1.3 2.0 1.2Cumulative - 1.3 3.3 4.5
Rate of Preliminary calculations indicate that the combined economicReturn: rate of return for the irrigated and rainfed pilot tree plan-
tation components (75 percent of total cost), the only com-ponents with significant quantifiable benefits, would be nearly12 percent.
Appraisal Given the pilot and technical assistance nature of theReport: activities to be undertaken under the proposed project,
a separate staff appraisal report was not prepared.
Map: IBRD 13470.
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENTTO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT
TO THE REPUBLIC OF NIGERFOR A FORESTRY PROJECT
1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposedcredit for the equivalent of US$4.5 million on standard IDA terms to theRepublic of Niger to help finance a proposed forestry project.
PART I - THE ECONOMY
2. A report, "Economic Memorandum: Niger" (RN 1109a-NIR) was dis-tributed to the Executive Directors on May 13, 1976. More recent economicinformation from various sources is also incorporated in the following para-graphs. Annex I contains country data.
Background
3. With a per capita GNP of about US$160 in 1976, Niger is one of thepoorest African countries and amongst the 29 "least developed countries" soclassified by the United Nations. The country faces a number of formidableconstraints to development including poor soils, unfavorable climatic condi-tions, landlocked position, high energy costs, high dependence on foreignfactors and low levels of education and technical ability. Since indepen-dence in 1960,-the economy has undergone little structural change: agricul-ture and livestock together provide employment and livelihood to over 90percent of the population and account for nearly half of GNP and a sizeableportion of export earnings. However, substantial growth was achieved inrecent years in industry which contributes a little over 10 percent of GNP
and particularly in uranium mining which has become an important factor inexpanding the Government's tax base and diversifying the country's exports.Consumption has traditionally been rather high (about 95 percent of GNP)and domestic savings modest; since investments have been relatively impor-tant (16-18 percent of GNP), the resulting resource gap has been financedby the substantial inflows of foreign resources.
Recent Developments
4. Niger's recent economic developments have been characterized byvirtual stagnation in the agricultural sector and rapid expansion in miningand industrial production. During the 1968-74 period, increasingly unfavor-able weather and in particular the disastrous 1973/74 drought resulted in a
40 percent decline in the output of the staple crops (millet and sorghum)while production of groundnuts, the single most important export crop, fellby 70 percent and the size of cattle herds was almost reduced to half. In
1974/75, production of the main staples picked up again thanks to improvedrainfall and increases in producer prices, but output fell again in 1975/76to about 80 percent of the pre-drought level because of premature ending anduneven distribution of rainfall in some of the principal cultivation areas.In 1976/77, rainfall was almost normal and the food situation significantlyimproved. The outlook for 1977/78 appears to be relatively good comparedwith other Sahelian countries where inadequate and untimely rainfall causedagain severe crop failures.
5. The dominant feature of the economy in recent years has been thecontinuous expansion in uranium mining activities. Between 1971 and 1976,investment in this sector by foreign concerns amounted to some US$275 million,uranium concentrates production increased rapidly from some 400 tons to about1,600 tons, thereby facilitating the economy's recovery from the severe effectsof the 1973 drought. Thus in 1974-1976 overall real GNP growth exceeded 32percent and, in 1976, uranium mining accounted for about 6 percent of GDP,over half of total exports, and provided about one-third of total Governmentrevenue. Present forecasts indicate that uranium production will reach about3,500-4,000 tons by 1980 with the entry into production of a second mine.
6. Stimulated by this improvement in domestic income and by the impactof the growing trade with Nigeria, the industrial and services sectors, in-cluding transport and construction, have also expanded rapidly and accountedfor about 26 percent of GDP in 1976, although this relative increase alsoreflects the drought-induced decline of agricultural and livestock activi-ties.
Public Finance
7. Over the last seven years, austere spending policy, together withrapidly rising revenue, mostly from uranium mining, have enabled the Govern-ment to generate substantial current budgetary savings which amounted to aboutCFAF 10.0 billion (US$41 million) in fiscal 1976/77 and may reach CFAF 13 bil-lion (US$53 million) in fiscal 1977/78. Two features of particular importanceare introduced-in the current 1977/78 budget: first, the elimination of thehead tax levied on all citizens between the ages of 15 and 65, with a viewto reducing the tax burden on lower income groups; and second, the rise incapital expenditures in absolute as well as in relative terms, from CFAF 10billion in 1976/77 (28 percent of total budgetary expenditures) to CFAF 13billion (31 percent) with a corresponding increase in the share of ruraldevelopment investments. Both measures reflect Government's increasingconcern with the problems of social equity and economic growth. The substan-tial increase in budgetary savings has also facilitated the elimination ofFrench budgetary grants which averaged about CFAF 1.2 billion (US$5.0 million)annually over the 1970-75 period, and the increase in the proportion ofbudgeted capital expenditures in total public investments from 10 percentin 1970-75 to almost 20 percent in 1977/78.
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Balance of Payments
8. Following a deficit of CFAF 1.5 billion (US$6.1 million) in 1974,when depressed agricultural exports and worldwide inflation resulted in thedoubling of trade balance deficit, the balance of payments returned to equilib-rium in 1975, and recorded a substantial surplus amounting to CFAF 10.4 bil-lion (US$42.4 million) in 1976. The main factors underlying this outstandingperformance are the considerable reduction of trade balance deficit due notonly to rapidly increased uranium exports, but also to sizeable reduction inthe importation of materials and equipment. The indication for 1977 is good,with the expected increase in uranium exports to at least 1,800 tons and the43 percent increase in uranium prices in early 1977, and provided that therising trend of foreign aid of recent years continues.
Development Issues and Prospects
9. Niger's medium-term development potential lies primarily in therural sector which provides employment and livelihood of about 90 percentof total.population. Thus the Government's strategy rightly gives top prior-ity to efforts to improve agricultural productivity and to alleviate theeconomy's vulnerability to the vagaries of the weather, with a view to en-suring some degree of food self-sufficiency and promoting cash crops. Thebasic constraints to be tackled are the poor and apparently deterioratingsoil fertility and the scarcity of arable land in relation to the rapidlygrowing population: the cropping area amounts to about 10 percent of totalland area and only one-fifth of which (i.e. 2 percent) is under cultivationat any given time under the existing system of shifting cultivation. TheGovernment has therefore initiated a "productivity program" aimed at intro-ducing more intensive farming through provision of extension services, dis-semination of adapted varieties and introduction of appropriate agriculturaltechniques and implements. Special efforts are needed to restore exports ofa few cash crops, cotton and especially groundnuts which suffered from thedrought in 1972/74 and attacks from pests in recent years. Increasing atten-tion is also given to forestry in recognition of the vital role of forestsin maintaining the country's fragile ecological equilibrium and as the mostimportant source of energy in the medium term.
10. While the productivity program, which is expected to eventuallycover the entire rainfed agriculture area, represents the best way to im-prove the standards of living of the vast majority of the rural population,it cannot alleviate the precariousness of Niger's long-term food situation.The Government therefore gives priority to development of hydro-agriculturalschemes which could lessen the country's vulnerability to the vagaries of theweather and offer a viable solution to the land shortage problem. Developmentof the country's considerable irrigation potential (up to 200,000 ha) wouldhave to await construction of a proposed regulatory dam on the Niger River.In the meantime, there are some 16,000 ha which the Government intends todevelop for double cropping at the rate of about 1,000-2,000 ha annually.
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11. Regarding livestock, the herd reconstitution program initiated in1976 is progressing satisfactorily but pre-drought cattle numbers will notbe reached until 1990. The strategy for full development of the livestockpotential also aims at establishment of an organization for land use andgrazing patterns based on a recognition of the complementarity of Niger'sdifferent ecological zones.
12. While the thrust of development efforts is centered on the ruralsector, Government also attaches priority to the prospection and exploita-tion of the country's mineral resources. As indicated above, uranium alreadyprovides much needed momentum to the economy through substantial Governmentrevenues and export earnings. In addition, there are indications of largebut as yet unassessed phosphate deposits which could be exploited for exportsand for fertilizer production. Several foreign companies are also activelyengaged in oil and gas prospection. There is therefore a considerable poten-tial for mineral production; the judicious utilization of the resulting miningproceeds could lay a sound basis for sustained economic growth and diversifi-cation. The industrial sector offers favorable opportunities for productiveemployment of Niger's urban and rural population. Prospects for developmentof trade with Nigeria, import substitution activities, construction, servicesand agro-industries to support and stimulate rural sector development, aremost attractive.
13. Despite considerable achievement in the past two decades in termsof primary and secondary school enrollments, Niger's education base has im-proved only marginally: more than 90 percent of the population is stillilliterate and, overall, the shortage of qualified manpower for projectidentification, preparation and implementation, constitutes the most criticaldevelopment constraint in the medium term. There is therefore increasingrecognition within Government that a major educational reform is needed.Inadequacy of economic infrastructure, mainly for transport, is anotherlimiting factor which has also received high priority and increased finan-cial resources.
Interim Program (1976-1978)
14. This general line of the Government's strategy is broadly reflectedin the Interim Program, currently being implemented, which proposed publicinvestments of CFAF 78.2 billion (US$320 million) during the 1976-1978 period.This plan gives emphasis to infrastructure and power (46 percent of total in-vestments), agriculture (33 percent) and development of human resources (18percent). About one-fourth of total investment was expected to be financedby domestic resources, reflecting the Government's determination to mobilizedomestic savings to the fullest extent possible. Nevertheless, in view ofNiger's poverty and still limited growth prospects, external funds shouldcontinue to be provided on the most concessionary terms. Moreover, foreignaid agencies should consider financing a high proportion of total projectcosts, including local costs.
15. Between 1971 and 1975, Niger's total recorded net flow of resourcesfrom DAC countries and multilateral agencies averaged about U$$80 millionannually of which 95 percent was on concessionary terms. No reliable infor-mation is available on external flows from other sources. The EuropeanDevelopment Fund (FED), France, Germany and Canada remain Niger's majoraid donors along with Saudi Arabia and Algeria which have expanded theirprograms in the last two years.
16. At the end of 1975, external public debt outstanding amounted toUS$231.7 million, including an undisbursed amount of US$109.1 million. Theratio of debt service to exports of goods and non-factor services was 3.5 per-cent in 1973 and remained manageable at 5.8 percent in 1975. No significantincrease in debt has taken place over the last two years and no debt servicingproblems are foreseen in the near future. The Bank Group ranks as Niger'ssecond largest creditor with 17.3 percent of total debt outstanding and dis-bursed. This level reflects the fact that the major bilateral donors aremaking most of their aid available on a grant basis. IDA's share in totaldebt service payments is insignificant.
PART II - WORLD BANK OPERATIONS IN NIGER
17. Beginning with an IDA credit for road construction in 1964, elevenIDA credits including two supplementary credits, have so far been approvedfor Niger totalling US$53.5 million, net of cancellations. Past Bank Grouplending was heavily concentrated on transport and communications, whereinadequate facilities hampered the development of the country: of the nineprojects approved to date, four aimed at expanding and up-grading the domesticroad network, one provided for improvement and extension of existing facili-ties at Niamey international airport and another for the installation of amore reliable telecommunications system. IDA's lending to date for the ruralsector includes an agricultural credit project, a drought relief project andthe Maradi rural development project. Annex II contains a summary statementof these credits as of March 31, 1978 and notes on the execution of on-goingprojects.
18. In keeping with Niger's overall development strategy, future BankGroup lending will increasingly focus on efforts to ensure some degree offood self-sufficiency and to improve the incomes and standards of livingof the rural population; to upgrade and expand physical infrastructure; todevelop alternative approaches to training and educational reform; and todiversify the economy and expand modern sector employment. We will also con-tinue to advise Government on policy issues and options through our economicand sector work.
19. For the three fiscal years 1978-80, about half of IDA's lendingto Niger will go to the rural sector. In addition to the proposed forestryproject, we plan to contribute to the financing of an irrigation project
aimed at developing rice production and at assisting Government in carrying
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out institutional reforms; a livestock project in support of efforts to speedup the reconstitution of herds, to increase livestock productivity and topromote effective participation of the pastoralists in the management andimprovement of communal rangelands and stock watering points; and a secondrural development project designed to achieve sustained increase in foodgrainproduction and in rural incomes in the Dosso area.
20. In transport, we plan to place emphasis on assistance in the con-struction of a network of secondary and access roads to support the Govern-ment's agricultural program while continuing our support for maintenance ofthe existing infrastructure; the feeder roads project currently under prep-aration will mark a first step towards this objective. The proposed educationproject will address the urgent problem of developing qualified high and mid-dle level manpower particularly for agricultural development activities; itwill also aim at some limited expansion in enrollment, improvement in thequality of existing institutions and development of non-formal education pro-grams. In general, all future projects will also include, as needed, train-ing, technical assistance, and other provisions necessary for strengtheninginstitutions. Regarding the industrial sector, a proposed small/medium scaleenterprises and artisans project would provide technical and financial assis-tance for employment creation activities and form the basis for our dialoguewith Government on the future development of this sector.
PART III - THE FORESTRY SECTOR
Background
21. Niger's natural forest cover consists, with the exception of thehigher grade sudanian forests in the South, of low grade savanna, thicketsor bush which serve as dry weather grazing reserves. Classified forestreserves parks and controlled erosion areas cover about 1 million ha or 0.9percent of the country's total area. The area of man-made forests is reportedto be some 6,000 ha mainly around Niamey but much of this has been experimentalplanting and stocking is poor.
22. According to the Bank's 1976 economic report, the forestry sectoraccounts for about 6 percent of GDP. However, the official statistics of thevalue of forest output do not adequately reflect the important role which thenatural forest savanna and bush play in protecting the soil from wind erosion,providing tree fodder, a dry weather grazing reserve for livestock and asource of fruit, fibre, fuelwood, and building poles to meet the basic needsof the rural population for heating, cooking and shelter. Fuelwood needs,which account for about 90 percent of total wood consumption are estimated atabout 2.8 million cubic meters of which some 12 percent is used in the urbanareas. Construction poles coming from the southern Borassus forests representsome 10 percent of total consumption. Industrial wood is imported fromneighboring countries.
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23. Given the present annual population growth rate of about 2.7 percentand assuming the present per capita consumption levels, 1/ it is estimatedthat fuelwood requirements will more than double by the year 2000 to about 6million cubic meters of which about 20 percent will be needed for the urbanareas. This rapidly increasing demand is currently being met almost entirelyfrom natural forest and bush supplies which in many areas, particularly aroundNiamey have been completely cut out. The resulting wind erosion of top soiland disturbance of the fragile ecological equilibrium have led to developmentof desert conditions, declining soil fertility and degradation of some 0.7million ha of potential agricultural land. Already such conditions existover a 50 km radius around the city of Niamey, the fuelwood demands of whichwill nearly triple over the next decade. Desert conditions resulting fromfuelwood harvesting will spread to over an 80 km radius in this period unlesssteps are taken to reforest selected areas with compensatory plantations. Thepotential loss of further agricultural land will increase to about 2 millionha. Adoption of more efficient wood usage systems (e.g. better designed woodusing stoves), or alternative sources of energy could also make a significantreduction in total wood demand. The national agency for solar energy (ONERSOL)is currently carrying out experiments on the use of solar energy for heatingand cooking.
24. In the present situation of widespread shortages, prices are so highthat firewood needs represent about 20 percent of the average urban familybudget, and the low income groups in rural areas are forced to burn cropresidues such as millet straw and cattle dung as fuel except during therainy season when wood is the only fuel usable. The long term effect ofburning potential cattle fodder and dung will be to cause a further declinein soil fertility and a significant reduction in food crop yields, a matterof critical concern in a country where land suitable for cropping representsless than 10 percent of the land area.
Sectoral Organization
25. The Forestry Department of the Ministry of Rural Development hasresponsibility over forestry production and protection, inland fishing andpisciculture, fauna conservation and park management. Its activities arehowever, hampered by shortage of trained personnel at all levels as well asinadequacy of financial resources in relation to the present workload. In1975, total staff consisted of 150 agents of which 7 engineers and 15 tech-nicians; there were also 3 engineers and 15 technicians under training inNiger and abroad. In comparison, manpower needs were estimated by a FAO/CILSSsurvey at about 726 agents of which 23 engineers and 73 technicians. As tofinancial resources, public expenditures for forestry activities in the sameyear amounted to CFAF 273 million (US$1.1 million) equivalent to less thanone percent of total public expenditures. There is therefore a clear needto strengthen the Forestry Department.
1/ A yearly consumption of 0.8 m (r)/person in urban areas and 0.6 m(r)/person in urban areas.
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On-Going Activities
26. There are numerous small-scale forestry operations under way, scat-tered throughout the country and designed to achieve a variety of objectivesranging from fuelwood and pole plantations to land rehabilitation. Practi-cally all these undertakings are financed by external resources. The results
of these on-going forestry projects are very irregular: some have had satis-factory results (such as fuelwood plantations, Niamey shelter-belt, wind-breaks, improvement of gum stands); others have had less satisfactory results(such as Acacia Albida interplanting, village woodlots). These varied results
are due to: (a) general lack of means of the Forestry Department which is,nonetheless, able to concentrate resources on a few successful activities; and
(b) the prevalent cropping and grazing pressures which in some areas, inhibitrural population from participating in rural forestry projects. In contrastwith these varied results of projects outside villages, forestry activitieswithin compounds through shade tree plantations are very promising. Somevillagers are now getting used to regularly loping or pollarding shade treeplantations in compounds to obtain fuelwood and poles.
27. The Bank Group has financed forestry activities within the frame-work of two previous credits. First, the Drought Relief Project (Credit441-NIR) provided financing for the protection and rational management ofexisting gum acacia stands in the Zinder and Diffa districts. This hasbeen a successful operation: 6,000 ha of gum arabic stands have alreadybeen reserved and brought under protectional management, compared with theproject's target of 2,000 ha. A total of about 500 ha of village woodlotplantations is to be established under the Maradi Rural Development Project(Credit 608-NIR). This component is just getting underway.
Potential and Constraints
28. The technical constraints to forestry development in Niger are
formidable, with most of the country having less than 500 mm of erracticrainfall. Only a small part of the country located in the south reaches the800 mm rainfall level. A major problem is the absence of technical packagesadapted to these arid conditions. Other constraints include the lack ofbasic natural resource data and limited experience of effective measures
for mobilizing the participation of the rural population.
29. Experiments carried out by the national agricultural research
institute (INRAN) have shown promising results in new reafforestation tech-niques for irrigated plantations; less promising results have been achievedwith rainfed plantations but, in view of the limited potential for irrigatedplantations outside the Niger valley, research on new varieties and techniquesfor rainfed plantations is being actively pursued.
30. There is presently no complete inventory of natural forest resourcesor other basic data required to elaborate a long term comprehensive rehabilita-tion and conservation forestry plan. It is expected, however, that collection
of this information will be one of the major objectives of a proposed USAID-financed technical assistance project covering the period 1979-80.
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31. In addition to these technical problems it is increasingly evidentthat effective participation of the rural population is a prerequisite to along-term strategy for forestry development in Niger. At present, any ruralforestry implementation can only be envisaged through an integrated programaimed at increasing both agricultural and forestry output and with appropriateemphasis on extension and forest protection.
Sectoral Development Policy
32. Since the Sahelian Drought, increasing attention has been givento the role of the forestry sector in economic development. Government'scurrent forestry sector development strategy has three main objectives:
- To protect the remaining natural forest cover from encroach-ment and overgrazing by livestock;
- To develop a sustained supply of fuelwood, building poles,lumber, shade, fruit and fodder providing trees, for bothrural and urban populations;
- To establish windbreaks and to stabilize sand dunes in orderto prevent encroachment of the desert further south.
33. Given the present limited technical knowledge available in Nigerand the weakness of the national forestry service, Government has not yetbeen able to formulate effective long-term solutions to cope with theseproblems. In the meantime, external financial and technical assistance iscalled for to help the Government in carrying out medium to large-scale pilotschemes to test the feasibility of new reafforestation techniques, strengthen-ing of the forestry services, and gathering of basic technical and socio-economic data.
PART IV - THE PROJECT
34. The proposed project was identified in February-March 1977 followinga request by Government. An FAO/Bank cooperative program mission appraisedthe project in October 1977. Negotiations were held from April 3 to 4, 1978with a Government delegation consisting of Mr. Najada, Director of the ForestryDepartment of the Ministry of Rural Development.
Project Objectives
35. The project would support a three-year program of pilot activitiesaimed at improving fuelwood and building pole supplies especially for theurban areas, preventing further environmental degradation around townshipsdue to progressive destruction of natural forest cover, and strengtheningthe Forestry Department through provision of technical assistance and equip-ment with a view to building up a more effective extension service in the
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rural areas. The project would also support complementary studies to inves-tigate ways and means of securing support of people at the village level foran expanded national program of rural reafforestation. One of the majorobjectives of the project would also be to create a capacity for planning,management and monitoring within the Forestry Department.
Project Description
36. The project would include:
i. Pilot irrigated tree plantations: Experiments carriedout in the Niamey mainly area with Eucalyptus Camaldulensis
have shown promising results which indicate that irrigated
plantations offer one obvious possibility of meeting therequirements of the urban centers. Thus, it is estimatedthat an area of about 15,000 ha of irrigated plantationscould meet Niamey's fuelwood demands to the year 2000compared with current harvesting practices which would
necessitate virtual elimination of natural forest or bushover an area of some 2 million ha. Such irrigated treeplantations could be established on the lower terraces ofthe Niger River which are not suitable for irrigated paddycultivation. Moreover, there will be no competition forwater supply because the tree plantations need not be irri-
gated during the rainy season when the Niger River is atits lowest level. The proposed project will therefore fi-nance two or three pilot irrigated tree plantations totall-ing about 400 ha, to be established around Niamey at anestimated cost (excluding contingencies) of about US$3,800/haof which US$3,300/ha for civil works. We have receivedassurances from Government that sites have been identified;official confirmation of their allocation to the projectwould be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed Credit(Section 5.01(b) of the draft Credit Agreement). Seedlingswill be provided by nurseries of the Forestry Department andthe planting program would be 100 ha in 1979 and 300 ha in1980. The stands would be cut every three years for 12years and would be replanted thereafter. Emphasis will beput on maintenance of accurate costing records and economicstudies needed to assess the viability of a large secondphase project, and also on a study of the areas of irrigableland which could be secured for such a larger program.
ii. Pilot rainfed tree plantations: The project wouldalso finance the establishment of about 700 ha rainfedtree plantations around the main urban areas (of whichhalf around Niamey and the remainder around Tahoua,Maradi and Zinder) mainly with neem (Azadirachta Indica).All rainfed tree plantations will be established inclassified forests (see para. 21) and hence no land
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availability problem is foreseen. Establishment costs(excluding contingencies) are estimated at US$590/ha.Seedlings would be provided by nurseries of the ForestryDepartment and the planting program would be as follows:300 ha in 1979 and 400 ha in 1980. The stands wouldbe cut every six years for 18 years and they would bereplanted thereafter. These rainfed pilot plantationsare necessary considering the limited potential forirrigated plantations outside the Niger River valley.Further study could also prove that rainfed tree planta-tions are a more economical and effective way of meetingfuelwood demands.
iii. Assistance to Rural Forestry Activities: The projectwould provide equipment, vehicles, fencing and nurserysupplies (poles, barbed wire, tools, plastic bags)in order to improve the implementation of the on-goingrural forestry activities of the Forestry Department(management of natural forests, establishment of villagewoodlots, shelter belts, windbreaks, life fencing andsand dune stabilization) and thus to pave the way fora more widespread program for establishment of forestryschemes in the rural areas. The Government's currenttree nursery programs will be reviewed by the proposedplanning, management and monitoring unit with emphasison the scope for promoting new fast growing speciesfor production of forestry fodder, fruit, nut, fibre,fuelwood, poles or timber.
iv. Training in Extension Services: The project wouldprovide refresher courses on rural reafforestationtechniques and possible approaches to encouragingrural population participation, for about 50 fieldstaff dealing with rural forestry activities. Courseswould be given at the FAC/FAO/UNDP-assisted nationalagricultural training institute (IPDR) of Kolo; trainingcurricula will be agreed upon with the Association.(Part D of Schedule 2 of the draft Credit Agreement.)
v. Assistance to research: Ongoing forestry research inNiger is carried out by the FAC-assisted INRAN and ison the whole satisfactory. However, more research isnecessary in such fields as new species, more efficientwood usage for construction and heating, promotion ofsubstitutes, irrigated and rainfed tree plantations.Funds will therefore be provided under the proposedCredit to finance materials and operating costs for thiscomplementary research to be carried out by INRAN withinthe framework of the proposed project. (Part E ofSchedule 2 of the draft Credit Agreement.)
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vi. Workshop maintenance unit. Because of the harsh climaticconditions and lack of maintenance facilities availableto the Forestry Department and, in the light of expandingactivities, the proposed project would implement andmanage a machinery and vehicle maintenance unit.
Implementation
37. The project would establish, within the Forestry Department, aProject Unit to assist the Forestry Department in coordinating and monitoringthe various project activities, establishing project progress reports, gather-ing economic data and results of experiments, planning rural forest programs,and preparing an expanded second phase project suitable for Bank support.Furthermore consultant services would be available to the unit to carry outcomplementary studies on economic, sociological and agricultural (includinglivestock) aspects. Higher priority than in the past will be given to economicresearch into the cost and benefit aspects of rural afforestation programs,including the study of possible options for a reasonable cost recovery for anyfuture large scale development projects. A sociological study, inter alia,will be made of alternative approaches to extension work in forestry at thevillage level. Studies will also be made of the relationship between forestryand agricultural extension efforts particularly those associated with promo-tion of fodder suppliers for livestock (which would thereby relieve pressureon forest resources) and of the scope for better grazing schemes in forestareas. The proposed planning, management and monitoring unit shall be estab-lished under terms of reference satisfactory to the Association. (Section3.02(b) of the draft Credit Agreement.)
38. The Project Unit would be headed by a Project Director with qual-ifications and experience, and employed under terms and conditions, satis-factory to the Association. Other key staff would include a specialist intropical forestry familiar with problems of forestry and rural economics asadviser to the Project Director and an agricultural engineer (Genie ruralspecialist) in charge of the irrigated plantations and the workshop main-tenance unit. Because no qualified nationals are available for the lattertwo positions, they will be filled through international recruitment, underterms of reference and conditions of employment satisfactory to the Asso-ciation. Appointment of the Project Director and recruitment of the otherkey staff would be conditions of effectiveness of the proposed Credit (Sec-tion 5.01 (c) and (d) of the draft Credit Agreement). Government has agreedto provide a counterpart to be trained by the agricultural engineer withinthe framework of his activities. The proposed Credit would also finance 12man-months of consultants' services, including a sociologist, a livestockspecialist and an economist, under terms of reference and condition of em-ployment satisfactory to the Association. (Section 3.02(a) of the draftCredit Agreement.) Close liaison will be maintained during project imple-mentation with "Genie rural" Department and INRAN as well as the otheragencies already active in this field. (Section 4.03 of the draft CreditAgreement.)
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Cost Estimates and Financing
39. Total project costs net of duties and taxes are estimated at US$5.3million including physical and price contingencies. The proposed IDA creditwould finance the entire foreign exchange component amounting to US$3.7 mil-lion or 70 per cent of total costs; the local cost component will be financedhalf and half by the Government and the Association, with the Government tak-ing in charge salaries of local personnel, local currency expenditure forexpatriate staff and consultants and part of the operating costs. Estimatedcosts by project components are given in the Credit and Project Summary. Thefinancing plan showing the proposed application of the IDA and Governmentcontributions by expenditure item is as follows:
US$ ThousandsGovernment IDA Total
Civil Works - 2.21 2.21
Machinery and vehicles - 0.65 0.65
Equipment, supplies and inputs - 0.44 0.44
Expatriate staff and Consultants 0.07 0.61 0.68
Local Personnel 0.47 - 0.47
Operating Costs of Machineryand Vehicles 0.23 0.59 0.82
Total 0.77 4.50 5.27
(Percentage) (15) (85) (100)
40. The estimated costs of expatriate personnel cover 6 man-yearsof staff and one man-year of consultants at an average cost per man-month,including allowances and travel, of about US$8,100. Physical contingencieshave been applied as follows: 20 percent on civil works and 10 percent on allother items except for personnel costs. Price contingencies of 10 percent(1978) and 9 percent (1979-80) have been applied for civil works, and of 7.5percent (1978-79) and 7.0 percent (1980-81) respectively for all other projectcomponents. Total contingencies amount to US$1.2 million, equivalent to about29 percent of base cost estimates.
Establishment of a Special Fund
41. Immediately after credit effectiveness, an initial Association dis-bursement of US$200,000 equivalent would be made to a special account; from
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this account Government would be able to finance project expenditures. TheAssociation would replenish the special fund upon reception of satisfactoryevidence that such expenditures are eligible for financing out of the proceedsof the Credit. However, should any disbursement out of the special fundfail to meet the criteria of eligibility, IDA would refuse disbursement, andGovernment would be under obligation to deposit the corresponding amount intothe special account. Opening of this Special Account will be a condition ofeffectiveness. (Section 5.01(a) of the draft Credit Agreement.)
Procurement and disbursement
42. In view of the high costs of works carried out by enterprisesowing to the lack of effective competition amongst contractors and thesubstantial backlog of construction works (mainly roads), civil works andbuildings would be constructed by force account with the assistance of theGenie Rural Department of the Ministry of Rural Development and the soiland forestry divisions of INRAN. Contracts for installation of the pumpingstations needed for irrigated plantations (US$0.6 million) and equipment andvehicles (US$0.6 million), given the small size and timing of the individualpurchases, would be awarded following local competitive bidding in accordancewith procedures acceptable to the Association.
43. The Credit would be disbursed against: 100 percent of expendituresfor civil works (including buildings), equipment, vehicles and inputs; 100percent of the foreign exchange component of salaries for the staff and con-sultants; and 92 percent of the operating costs for machinery and vehiclesprovided under the project. Disbursements will be fully documented exceptfor those works done by force account and operating costs which will be madeagainst a certificate of expenditure, the documentation of which is not sub-mitted for review, but is retained by the Borrower and available for inspec-tion by the Bank during the course of a supervision mission. The Borrowerwill make arrangements satisfactory to the Association for the audit ofexpenditures covering disbursements under this procedure (Section 4.02 ofthe Credit Agreement).
Accounting and-Auditing
44. The planning, management and monitoring unit would keep separateaccounts for each project component. The project accounts will be audited byindependent auditors mutually acceptable to the Government and IDA. Auditedannual accounts would be submitted to IDA within four months of the closing ofthe financial year. (Section 4.02 of the draft Credit Agreement.)
Project Benefits
45. The project is intended to provide a sound basis for proceedingwith larger scale national development of the forestry resources of Nigerthrough expanded plantations and rural forestry projects. The project activi-ties will focus on the problems of deforestation and environmental deteriora-tion in the rural areas and on the sociological attitudes of villagers toimplement forestry protection and management. It will attempt to identify at
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the village level the incentives and development capacity needed to secure thecooperation of the rural people in implementing the rural forestry programs.It will develop a basic technical package and improved techniques in reaffores-tation and conservation for the supply of fuel and building wood for theurban centers and for the protection against further environmental/ecologicaldisruption. Additional major benefits of the proposed project will be thestrengthening of the national forestry service charged with planning andsupervising forestry activities in Niger, and preparation of a program fordevelopment of the rural infrastructure for larger scale rural forestryprograms.
46. The principal quantifiable benefits of the project would be theincremental production of fuelwood and construction poles resulting bothfrom the establishment of pilot irrigated and rainfed tree plantations.Preliminary calculations indicate these two components, which account for75 percent of total project costs, are economically justified with rates ofreturn of about 12.0 percent for irrigated plantations and 10.6 percent forrainfed plantations. The overall rate of return for these two components isnearly 12 percent. Two key assumptions regarding these calculations are:
i. an annual increase of 5 percent in real terms infuelwood prices for the next twelve years; and
ii. soil conservation benefits are valued in terms ofthe value of the millet/sorghum production fromthe land that would be destroyed without the project.
While the project is expected to have a satisfactory economic rate of return,the quantifiable benefits are less important than the non-quantifiable ecolo-gical, social and institutional benefits.
Project Risks and Possible Follow-up Investment Projects
47. The proposed project will present the inevitable technical andeconomic risks associated with such pilot activities. For the irrigatedtree plantation component there is a risk that further studies might revealthat the economic costs of proceeding on a commercial scale is too high.For the rainfed tree plantation there is a technical risk that introducedexotic plantation species may not prove to be fully adaptable to the aridconditions prevailing in Niger.
48. However, despite these risks outlined above, there is little riskthat the project's institutional building aspects will not be justifiedbecause, even at this stage, it is possible to clearly identify alternativefollow-up investment projects in rural areas.
49. Three possible alternative follow-up investment projects can beidentified:
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(i) Irrigated plantations
In the event that the pilot irrigated plantation componentis successful, a logical investment project as a follow-upto these pilot experiments will be initiation of a plantingprogram of about 15,000 hectares over say a 10- to 15-yearperiod primarily aimed at supplying the fuel requirementsof Niamey township.
(ii) Rainfed plantations
In the event that it is decided for either technical oreconomic reasons not to proceed with the irrigated planta-tion option on a larger scale, it would be feasible to planto meet Niamey's fuelwood township requirements from rain-fed plantations, preferably using fast growing exotic spe-cies, such as those which have been under trial for thelast decade, or alternatively if further study of thesepast trials proves that the technical risks are too great,by relying on indigenous species which it is known can beestablished in this region. An area of something between50,000 hectares and 150,000 hectares would be required,depending on whether slow growing indigenous or fastergrowing introduced species are used.
(iii) Protection and development of the existing natural forestsand of village woodlots
Quite independently of the two project alternatives iden-tified above, the Government Forest Service is committedto a long term program for protecting and developing thenatural forest in the South and also to assisting throughits agricultural development and rural development projectprograms in the establishment of village woodlots throughoutthe rural areas to meet the rural population demand forfuelwood, tree fodder and building poles. Fuelwood require-ments alone in the rural3areas to the year 2000 would be inthe order of 5 million m (para. 23).
PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY
50. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic ofNiger and the Association and the Recommendation of the Committee providedfor in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Associa-tion are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately.
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51. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III ofAnnex III. Conditions of effectiveness include the opening of the SpecialAccount (Section 5.01(a) of the Credit Agreement), the allocation of the twoor three sites for the irrigated tree plantations (Section 5.01(b) of theCredit Agreement), the appointment of a Project Director (Section 5.01(c) ofthe Credit Agreement) and the recruitment of the agricultural engineer and thespecialist in tropical forestry for the Project Unit (Section 5.01(d) of theCredit Agreement).
52. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with theArticles of Agreement of the Association.
PART VI - RECOMMENDATION
53. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposedCredit.
Robert S. McNamaraPresident
May 4, 1978
ANNEX IPage 1 of 4 pages
TABLE 3ANIGER - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET
LAND AREA rHOU KM2) ------ - --- - --- … -_______________ NIGER REFERENCE RCTES (1970)
TOTAL 1267.0 MOST RECENT A rIAGRIC. 180.0 1960 1970 ESTIMATE MALAWI EMPIRE SENEGAL**
GNP PER CAPITA (USS) 00.0 * I.O * 160.0/a* 70.0 170.0 70.0___________________2
POPULATION AND VITAL S'ATISTICS
POPULATION (MID-YR. MILLION) 3.1 4.0 4.7/a 4.5 1.6 4.4
POPULAl ,ON DENSITYPER SQUARE KM. 2.0 3.0 4.0 /a 38.0 3.0 22.0P'.R SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 17.0 22.0 26.0 100.0 27.0 55.0
VITAL STATISTICSCRUDE BIRTH RATE (/THOU. AV) 52.4 52.3 52.2 49.3 45.4 47.6CRUDE DEATH PATE (/THOU.AV) 28.4 25.7 25.5 28.1 26.4 24 4INFANT MORTALITY RATE (/THOU 200.0 ,, 162.0*-LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YRS) 35.9 38.5 38.5 30.5 39.0 40.0GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.9 3.0
POPULATION GROWTH RATE (%)TOTIL 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.6URBAN 4.5 6.3 5.5 5.0 7.2 6.0
URBAN POPULATION 1% OF TOTAL) 4.8 8.2 9.4 5.6 30.1 29.0
AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT)0 TO 14 YEARS 43.8 44.5 43.0 43.9 42.1 41.2
15 TO 64 YEARS 53.0 52.6 52. 2c 52.1 54.8 54.865 YEARS AND OV7.R 2.2 2.9 4.8(c 4.0 3.1t 3.9
AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.90 0.2.0ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.9 /a .o/.L .. 1.1/a o.g/a 1.2
FAMILY PLANNINGACCEPTORS (CUMULATIVE, THOU) .. .. ..USERS (X OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. ..
EMPLOYMEN r
TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSAND) 770.0 /b 1900.0 .. 1900.0 820.0 1600.0LABOR FORCE IN AGRICULTURE (%) 97.0 m 91.0 .. 09.0 91.0 73.0UNEMPLOYED (% OF LABOP FORCE) .. .. .. .. .. 7.0
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
X OF PRIVAsE INCOME REC D BY-HIGHEST 5% OF HOUSEHOLDS 23.0 ,, ,, 29.5HIGHEST 20% OF HOUSEHOLDS 42.0 .. 52.9LOWEST 20% OF HOUSEHOLDS 6.0 .. .. 5.7LOWEST 49% Of NO4SNOOLDS 1.0 ** .. ....
OISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP
S OWNED BY TOP tO% OF OwNERS .. .. ..X OWNED BY SMALLEST 10% OWNERS .. .. ..
HEALTH AND NUTRITION____________________
POPULl.tIoN PER PHYSICIAN 71000.0C 58260.0 41060.0 75250.0 38330.0 16640.0POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 7s00o.0C 7040.0 4970.0 . 1280.0/b 2610.0/bPOPULATION PER HOSrlTAL BED 18H0.07; 2230.0 1790.0/d 640.0 460.0 810.07E
PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF -CALORIES (% OF REQUIREMENTS) 93.0 83.0 78.0 93.0 96.0 91.0PROTEIN (GRAMS PER DAY) 74.0 72.0 74.0 54.0 4 .0 64.0
-OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE .. 24.0/b .. 9.0/b 22.0 2B.0o/d
DEATH RATE (/THOU) AGES 1-4 .. .. ..
EDUCATION
ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOPRIMARY SCHOOL 5.0 14.0 17.0 39.0 69.0 43.0SECONDARY SCHOOL 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 10.0
YEARS OF SCHOOLING PROVIDED(FIRST AND SECOND LEVEL) 13.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 10-12 13.0
VOTCAT IONAL ENROLLMENT(% OF SECONOARY) 4.0 3.0 2.2 3.0 12.0 9.0
ADULT LITERACY RATE (X) 5.0 .. .. 22.0 .. 10.0
HOUSI NG
PERSONS PER ROOM (URBAN) .. .. .. 1.9/COCCUPIED tJELLINGS WITHOUT
PIPED WATER (%) .. .. .. 78.0 /c, .ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY(% OF ALL DWELLINGS) .. .. .. 16.0 /c.d
RURAL DWELLINGS CONNECTEDTO ELECTRICITY (X\ .. .. ..
CONSUMPT I t4
RADIO RECEIVERS (PER THOU POP) 1.0 36.0 .. 20.0 30.0 69.0PASSENGER CARS (PER THOU POP) 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 9.0ELECTRICitI (KWH/YR PER CAP) 2. 10.0 15.0 32.0 29.0 73.0NEWSPRINT (KG/YR PER CAP) 3.i/d .. ,. .. .. 0.1
SEE NOTES AND DEFINITIONS ON REVERSI
Paeg 2 of 4 pages
Unless othervisa noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1939 and 1961, for 1970 between 1968 end 1970, and for Most Recenkt Estimate between1973 and 1975.
GNP par capita data are baeed orn the World bank Atls methodologY (1974-76 beate).
Senegal has been selected 4a en objective country since Its 1970 GNP is about three times that of Niger, both countries are in the eamegeographical aerase, have similar production patternso (with the sans donisnen crop-groundawuts) , share the ear umtontry syston and haveabout the same population.
NIG-ER 1960 /a Raetio of population under 15 and 65 and over to total labor force; lb Excludes labor force of Niamy city,nomad population end foreigners; /c 1962; /d 1964.
1970 La Ratio of population under 15 and 65 end over to total labor force; /b 1964-66.
NOST RECEN ESTMIAT: /a 1976; Lb 1972; Ls. Age 15-59 end 60 y"entaend over respectively; Ld 1971.
MALAWI ~ 1970 /a Ramtio of population under 15 end 65 end over to total labor force. /b 1964-66; -/c 1967; Ld Urban only.
CENTRAL IFRICAN 1970 /a Ratio of population under 15 and 65 end over to total labor force; /b Including midwives and assistant nurse*.EMP IRE
SENEGAL 1970 Is Ratio of populatiotn under 15 and 65 end over to total labor force; lb, ncluding assistant nurase#;LcGovernment hospital estabIaLm nts only; Ld 1964-66.
R7, Decemer 12, 1977
MinUIEIa SOP0CIL DIDICATOS
Lan.d Are. (thou km2
Popuaton par ourinsPro Population 4itidad by n, br Of practicingTotalI Total aurfcac area ccoprising Land area end InLead wnta" . mela an finl ar-eduate cuesa, "trained" or reartifiad" nmurss andAsJriC.- Moat recent sa tinets of agricultural area used tompoarezly or psime- arniliary perenmuel with treining or .. Pert...e
nently for crops, peastrea, nerkat 6 kitchen gardens or to Ile fallow. =ouaime oa,r - honi albd -Population divided by mumber of hoapital bedembvei1abteion public and privece general and specialled hoapital andGNP per capita (IMI; - GNP per capita estimates at currant market prices, reaiiain cnter; 4MCIude wastein hosso end establialomtnr for
calculated by amoe converion mahod as, Vorld Bank Atlas (1973-75 basis); Custodial and preventive care.1960; 1970 and 1975 data. Per cap!"ta puil fclra 1ofr ieat' ~ ted fri, energy
Povulptioll and vit O~~~~~~~euiaen o etfodsupie valal i mtxry Per capita per day;Popuatin ed v ta statistic, aveilable supplies COWpL"s dm511ic production, Imports less anports,soPo:ulecion (midermilo' Aa of July first: if not pysilable, aesrege changes in stock; net supplis eacluda animal feed, geade,n quantitle eedof tw and-ear stimatee; la60, 1970 end 1975 data, in food processing md looses In distribution; requireommnts ~mr estimated
by FAG be"amdo physiological needs for normal activity and ealth conald-Population density - Ver scuars km - Mid-year populAtion per squae" kilrnter swing tnsntlemperature, body weighta, age and sez distributions of(100 hactaree) of total at"a. population, and allowing 101 for waste at househoU level.
Ponuacio denity persgore he of ugLrtc, Wen - Ganisutod as above for Per cani.1tr,s Iuil ofooti f=arM n daw) - Protein content of pet taplt.ag:ric.ul?tural l= onl. ne splyo food pe ay at supply Of food is defined as abows; require-
vents for all countries eatablished by -naA Scomnmic Iaesarth SerrirseVital statistics Provide for a Minimum elboence of 60 greas of totaL prtaeik per day, sndCrud ba,,irth ra e r thouan.Mr e 'uAn l live births per thousd of 20 grams Of animal and Pulgse protein, of which 10 grin should be animal
mid-yar ppulaton; en-yar rithotic averagee wAng in 1960 and 1970, Protein; thM* standards are Onmr then thee. of 75 grimn of total proteinand five-year average ending in 1975 for moat recent estimate, -ad 25 grine of animal protein as en sgvarga f or tha .mwld, propeeed by yAG)
Crdo death rate per thuad vre nuL deetba pew thoumand of mid-year in the Third World Food Survey.population; te-yea erit;tc aveags ending ina 1960 end 1970 mi five- ercpt reieusyfean aledoe - Protei suply of foodyear average enigi 17 o ns een siat.drvd fra=VG edplani R par day.
Infenkt mortality rata f/thou) - Arnual deaths of inants under on year of agem; t (.thoul no 1-4 - UAitl deaths par thousand In age group 1-4per thouaand live birtha. ter, t chLildrna in this age group; suggetad as, an inbdicator of
Lifs exneccancy at birth (Trs) -Average nxder of years of life rnimrinbg at mealntritiso.birth; usually five-year averages ending In 1960, 1970 and 1975 for dwelop-ing countries. dcto
gXoe rgrducio rail- Average number of live daughtrs a womn will beer Adlinted enyoImatrai olavqh - Rnzolmaac of all agea an per-to rnoms1wmreproAuictive period if ebe expawisncee present age-apecfitt centag of pr."Mery choo-ag pouaion nide htraaed6I srfertility rates; usually five-year averagm aending In 1960, 1970 =W 1975 but adjusted for different lenatha of primway education; for Countries withfor developing countries. univaesal edbactiou. enrOllment may amteaed 10O1 since aom pupils are below
Populatomion eoobrte M& ) - tQtal - Compound anneal growth rates of mid-year Or above the off iielA school age.population for 1950-60 ,1960-70 and 1970-75. Adutderlmn e 9 -emarsho - Computed we shove; aueaenary
Populatiotn trowth rate(tIf- ura - Cmputod ILhe growth rate of total euainrqraateatfuyeeofapproved primery instrction;population; differen dainitione of urban &rees may effect cmperebilicy of PrOwide general1, vocational or teacher tarsining inetructioss for pupilsdata anong comitriaa. of 12 to 17 years of atge; cortempeauns coursge ean generally mInuded.
Urba ooolacin 1 of total) - Ratio of urban to total population; different yer fsholn rvdd frtadseodlvl - Tocal years ofdefintpion of urban areas may affect compezshility of datea cmmcrttiea.scoln;a cs.ylel,oatnlisruinmybeptaly r
cmplately onelade.Av structure (Prerent; - Childrm (0-14 years), working-age (15-64 years), Voc X -Vational nole cfTfscndr'- ctiILoasitucioen incldud
and rtired(65Tears and over) as percentages of eid.yoar population. ta ir,inWrIIl or -her Program which opert. independently uor asMAe depedndev ratio - Ratio of population Undar 15 end 65 end over to those daperceenc of secondery inaticutii...of ages, 13 through 64. AdlSlt literacy aeC;-Ltrt dls(bet edadwie spr
Economic dependencly ratio - Ratio Of populationk under 15 and 65 and ovr to ereo totaladult populamtio agdut (byears rendndover. t)asprthe labor force in age group of 15-64 years.tetgof ut pLti ad15y" anevr
F401ilY PlanMina -ecceootrs (cunuWtve. thou' - CnA.Letive number of acceptors Rm of birth-control devices under auspices of cacional fanily pluaming progrin - reag abr f eroarerrorinocupe
since inception, covntoalv1 igsi urbanareas dwellins pluer noo-pJ.etcpweeFanily Planning - usesr fT of married wane) - percentages of married wiom of sructLorea anduoccuIed pranarts. lhli ecue o
chil-beaing gs (5-44year) wa use birth-control devices to all mmared Occupied dueltlnsa withou-ied wter (I-Occupied conventional deellingavanen in sin age group. in~~~~~~~~L urban and rural erae" without inside Or Outside piped water facilities
EmpLoymment u~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~a percentage Of all occupied dweallings.Toal lyabor foc touad ceesly cieprsn,icldaam 1= to eflectriLci'ty , of aldmlnw - convetional d'mellinga with
forces and unetoy"e but excluding housewives, atudants, etc.; definitiona rural areas. 8csOs8rmtottabltn to bnadin various countries are not coeperable. Rural dwellinscOnmactad to eLectricity (%; - CamPsted as shove for mrura
Labor force inf agriclture MI - Agricultural labor force (in farming, foreaty, dwellings nlyhunting and fihing) ;aPa pecetage of total labor force.
Oninloved CT of loabr fOrca) - temployad are usually defined as persona who Coantnare ableaend wiLling to take a Job, out of a job on a given day, maime4md out Radoec iver (my hupe,-Altpso rciesfrrdobodatof a Job, and seeking work for a specified sminim period net gegeding One to nrl pubicpe th-Ousan of poplation; Of id nicne receivers,fradobacst
week ma notbe ompaabl beteencountries due to different dafinitions in countries a nd is ear when regsteration of radio setses i"o affect;,of unemployed end source of data, e.g., mplayinc office statstictfs, amtple data for recent yeamr may not be comparable since meete countries abolishedsurveys * cmpuleory uninplo,mnt inurece. licasning.
'' rPassensrcr(ertopo)-aaoger care campriase macor cars seat tugIncgwa distribution - Psrcentage Of private inomen (both in ceeb and kind) Lesta ei':ght pRsona; excludes inbulsoces, hearses and militryreceived by richest SE. richest 201, poorest 201. and poorest 401 of house vehicles.hotda. Electricity Anny Prtp' ual conamNprion of industrial. cRmrciatl.
publicad privat letIciy in kilowatt hours per capita, generallyDistribution of land ownersip - Percencagas of lend owned by wealthimst 101 baseid on prodution data, without 811laseoce for loosess in grids but allow
end poorest 101 of landA amew. itg for ImPOrt and emporta of alectriCity.it ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~Nmrnt(gy a e)-Per capita conual cone,ption io kilogramsbald andNutrtio eatmAeted free .tic p-roduction plea net imports of newsprint.
= 111.11.= :. - Populaticndivided by anmev of practicingphyseicianquaLif Iiirm, a medical school at university level.
ANNEX I
Page 3 of 4 pages
COUNTRY DATA - NIGER
GNP PER CAPITA IN 1976: US$150
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1975 * ANNUAL_RATE OF GROWTH (7. CONSTANT 1968 PRICES)
US$ Million 7 1960-1973 1973-1975
GNP at Market Prices 639.4 100.0Gross Domestic Investment 118.5 18.6Gross National Savings 43.4 6.8Current Account Balance -85.1 -13.3Exports of Goods, NFS 167.8 26.2Imports of Goods, NFS 226.5 35.4
OUTPUT. LABOR FORCE ANDPRODUCTIVITY IN 1975
Value Added (Factor Costs)US$ million %
Agriculture 281.3 47.1Mining 28.0 4.7Industry 84.1 14.1Services 204.2 34.1Total 597.6 100.0
GOVERNMENT FINANCE
General Government(CFAF billion) Z of GDP1975/76 1976/77 1975/76 1976/77
Current Revenues (a) 25.7 (4.5) 32.2 (8.0) 18.7 19.0Current Expenditures 20.0 23.9 14.6 14.1Current Balance +77 +8.3 -t 4.9Capital Expenditure -4.0 -10.3 2.9 6.1External Assistance 1.5 0.0 1.1Overall Balance +3.2 -2.0 2.3 1.2
MONEY. CREDIT AND PRICES
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976(CFAF billion at end of year)
Money and Quasi Money 12.1 12.9 15.5 20.3 22.3 29.2Bank credit to Public Sector -2.3 -3.5 -3.4 -7.2 -11.5 -12.3Bank credit to Private Sector 9.7 10.7 12.5 21.0 28.5 28.6
PERCENTAGES OR INDEX NUMBERS
General Price Index (1970 = 100) 104.2 114.4 127.8 132.1 144.1 178.1Annual percentage changes in9
General Price Index 9.8 11.7 3.4 9.1 23.6Bank credit to Public Sector . . .Bank credit to Private Sector . 10.3 16.8 68.0 35.7 0.4
* Staff estimatesNot availableNot applicable
(a) = revenue from uranium mining. December 21, 1977
ANNEX I
Page 4 of 4 pages
COUNTRY DATA - NIGER
TRADE PAYMENTS AND CAPITAL FLOWS(in millions of current Us$)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 17 1974* 1975* MERCHANDISE EXPORTS 2/ (1975-76)
Exports of Goods, NFS 128.3 111.0 167.8 US$ Million 7
Imports of Goods, NFS 168.8 221.4 226.5
Resource Gap (deficit = -) -40.5 -110.4 -58.7 Livestock 28.4 21.7
Uranium 76.0 58.0
Interest Payments (net) -3.7 -8.3 -10.7 Groundnuts 9.1 7.0
Workers' Remittances -16.3 -17.9 -18.7 All other 17.4 13.3
Other Factor Payments (net) 4.1 3.2 3.0 Total 130.9 100.0
Net Transfers .. _.._
Balance on Current Accounts -56.4 -133.4 -85.1 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1975
Direct Foreign Investment (net) 0.8 6.9 15.8 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 231.7
Official Capital Grants 81.4 119.8 77.1 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt
Net MLT Borrowings 9.6 10.5 17.0 Total outstanding and disbursed 122.6
Disbursements (10.3) (10.6) (18.8) DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1976
Repayment (0.7) (0.1) (1.8)Public Debt, incl. guaranteed
Other items 1/ -31.3 -10.5 -19.8 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt
Change in Reserves (end year) 4.1 -6.7 5.0 Total outstanding and disbursed 5.8%
Foreign Reserves (end year) 53.5 44.3 51.4
Fuel and Related Materials IBRD/IDA LENDING. OCTOBER 31, 1977
Imports: .O outstanding and Disbursed 26.8
Undisbursed 28.4
of which: Petroleum 6.6 13.1 12.8 Outstanding incl. undisbursed 55.2
Exports:
of which: Petroleum
RATE OF EXCHANGE
1971: US$1.00 = CFAF 277.03
1972: US$1.00 = CFAF 252.21
1973: US$1.00 = CFAF 222.70
1974: US$1.00 = CFAF 240.50
1975: US$1.00 = CFAF 214.32
1976: US$1.00 = CFAF 245.00
1/ Including errors and omissions.
2/ BCEAO estimates.
* Staff estimate December 21, 1977
Not availableNot applicable
ANNEX IIPage 1 of 3 pages
THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN NIGER
A. STATEMENT OF IDA CREDITS (as at March 31, 1978)
Credit US$ millionNumber Year Borrower Purpose Amount (less cancellation)
IDA Undisbursed
Six credits fully disbursed 15.0441 1973 Republic of Niger Drought Relief 2.0 0.4473 1974 Republic of Niger Niamey Airport 5.0 0.4608 1975 Republic of Niger Maradi Rural
Development 10.7 8.0612 1976 Republic of Niger Niger Third Highway 15.6 11.7634 1976 Republic of Niger Telecommunications
Project 5.2 5.1
Total 53.5 25.6
of which has been repaid*
Total now outstanding and held by IDA /1 53.5
Total undisbursed
* $62,396.83 repaid /2
/1 Prior to exchange adjustment./2 As at February 28, 1978.
B. STATEMENT-OF IFC INVESTMENTS (as at March 31, 1978)
Nil.
ANNEX IIPage 2 of 3 pages
C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION 1/
Credit 441 Drought Relief Project, US$2.0 Million; Credit of December 7,1973; Effectiveness Date: May 7. 1974; Closing Date: June 30,1978
This credit, approved on November 13, 1973, is one of six creditsmade to the six Sahelian countries to help the population in drought-affectedareas to reestablish their self-sufficiency through redevelopment and improve-ment of their farms and herds. The Banque de Development de la Republiquedu Niger (BDRN) is serving as the intermediary for channeling funds to thedifferent Government agencies which have responsibility for the executionof various sub-projects. This project is nearing satisfactory completion.Out of the seven sub-projects, five (training scheme, construction of ruralwarehouses, spot repairs of a feeder road, engineering studies of an irri-gation project and construction of erosion control facilities) are completed;one (protection of gum tree natural groves) is nearly completed and one (con-struction and operation of calf feeding units) has now begun following delaysdue to water supply problems. However, the number of these units was reducedfrom six to two because of substantial cost overruns resulting from increasesin the prices of materials and cattle and necessary changes in constructiondesign.
Credit 473 Niamey Airport Project; US$5.0 Million; Credit of May 24. 1974;Effectiveness Date: September 19, 1974; Closing Date: June 30,1978
This credit provides for improvement to existing facilities so asto enable modern, large body aircraft to operate safely and economically toand from Niamey airport, including strengthening and lengthening the runway,strengthening the taxiway, enlarging and strengthening the aircraft parkingapron as well as the upgrading and relocation of the Instrument LandingSystem. The project as originally defined is completed and the airport isfully operational; final disbursement is expected by end of May 1978 followingdelivery of distance measuring equipment (DME).
I/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding theprogress of projects in execution, and in particular to report problemswhich are being encountered, and the action taken to remedy them. Theyshould be read in this sense, and with the understanding that they do notpurport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses inproject execution.
ANNEX IIPage 3 of 3 pages
Credit 608 Maradi Rural Development Project; US$10.7 Million; Creditof February 6. 1976; Effectiveness Date: October 8, 1976;Closing Date: June 30, 1979
This project provides production packages for the improvement of
the productivity of major crops, including groundnuts and millet, in areas
covered by 15 selected "Associations Locales de Cooperatives;" it aims to
strengthen these cooperative institutions, expand educational and training
programs, to develop irrigation potential in the Goulbi de Maradi; to con-
struct one road, to improve livestock services, to increase productivity
of fuel wood plantations and to establish a project education unit. Having
overcome initial delays in implementation due mainly to a shortage of quali-
fied local staff, the project has, in the past year, made considerable pro-
gress. Staffing is virtually complete, and buildings have been constructed.
Preliminary results from the last season indicate that due to poor rainfall,
production varied greatly between districts. Emphasis is therefore being
placed on implementation in order to ensure a well-balanced agricultural
development program.
Credit 612 Third Highway Project; US$15.6 Million; Credit of March 5,
1976; Effectiveness Date: January 31, 1977; Closing Date:
June 30, 1980
This project aims at assisting Government with the implementation
of a four-year program of periodic maintenance, including procurement of equip-
ment and training of specialized public works staff, construction and improve-
ment of the Zinder-Nigerian border road (113 km) and of the Maradi-Nigerian
border road (40 km). The project became effective only on January 31, 1977
due to delays in signature and effectiveness of the co-financiers' loan agree-
ment, and implementation is about one year behind schedule. The contract for
technical assistance and training was signed by Government in November 1977
and will be effective shortly. Bids for road maintenance equipment werecalled and should have been received by mid-March 1978. The contract for the
study of the domestic construction industry will be signed shortly. Comple-
tion of construction of the Maradi-Nigerian border road was expected by end
of February and that of the Zinder-Nigerian border road by March 1979.
Credit 634 Telecommunications Project; US$5.2 Million; Credit ofJune 11, 1976; Effectiveness Date: November 9. 1976;
Closing Date: June 30, 1980
The project includes installation of automatic switching equipment
with cable and subscriber distribution networks; provision of trunk switching
equipment, three VHF links and one HF radio link, overhead line and carrier
equipment; civil works, miscellaneous equipment, vehicles and tools and
services of engineering and financial consultants. Project implementation
started in January 1977, about six months behind schedule. ICB is now pro-
gressing satisfactorily. Bidding documents have been approved by IDA and
bid opening is expected in May 1978. Improvements in accounting systems and
procedures, which have been worked out by financial consultants, should be
implemented during 1978. Auditors have not yet been appointed.
ANNEX III
SUPPLEMENTARY PROJECT DATA SHEET
Section I: Timetable of Key Events
(a) First Bank mission to consider the project: Identifi-cation Mission, February-March 1977
(b) Date of departure of appraisal mission: October 1977
(c) Date of completion of negotiations: April 4, 1978
(d) Planned date of effectiveness: July 1978
Section II: Special Bank Supplementation Actions
The Association will assist the Government in recruiting the expa-
triate staff and consultants.
Section III: Special Conditions
(a) Curricula for the refresher courses to be given at the national
agricultural training institute (IPDR) of Kolo will be agreedupon with IDA (para 36 (iv));
(b) INRAN will carry out complementary research within theframework of the proposed project (para 36 (v));
(c) Terms of reference and the structure of the Project Unit aswell as terms of reference for the consultants and staff,should be satisfactory to the Association (paras. 37 and 38);
(d) The Government will ensure liaison among the Department ofGenie Rural, INRAN, the Ministry of Public Works and theother agencies concerned (para 38);
(e) Conditions of effectiveness include:
(i) Opening of a Special Account (para. 43);
(ii) Allocation of two or three sites totalling about400 ha on the lower terraces of the Niger Riverfor the pilot tree plantations (para. 36(i);
(iii) Appointment of a Project Director (para 38); and
(iv) Recruitment of an experienced agricultural engineer(Genie Rural specialist) and an equally qualifiedspecialist in tropical forestry (para. 38).
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