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To 5G or not to 5G?
by Jacques du Toit, CEO – Vox
2
Nielsen’s Law of Bandwidth& The Evolution of Bandwidth
3Nielsen’s LawExplained
Users' bandwidth grows by 50% per year,
(10% less than Moore's Law for computer speed). The
new law fits data from 1983 to 2018.
Nielsen's Law is similar to the more established Moore's Law. Unfortunately, comparing the
two laws shows that bandwidth grows slower than computer power. Moore's Law says that
computers double in capabilities every 18-months, which corresponds to about 60% annual
growth.
4
R/
$
Users are reluctant to spend money on bandwidth.
If you buy twice as fast a computer, your software
runs twice as fast; if you buy twice as large a hard
disk, you can store twice as many files. But if you
buy twice as fast a modem, then you don't
download web pages twice as fast. The speed of
the internet is a function of both the individual
user's connectivity and of the infrastructure.
Of course, there are many technologies to deliver
faster bandwidth.
Unfortunately, these technologies will not
deliver huge bandwidth increases to the
masses any time soon.
Telecom companies are conservative.
Users reluctant to spend money on bandwidth.
User base is getting broader
Average Increase In Bandwidth
The base gets broader as users get online. These new
users are more likely to be low-end users than high-
end users (all the geeks have been online for years),
so the average shifts ever lower.
You don’t get the full benefits if your own bandwidth
upgrade immediately — only gradually as the
Internet and the host servers improve.
A need to dig up streets and install equipment in
hundreds of thousands of central offices so they
think twice (or thrice) before investing the necessary
billions of rands. Even after they invest, it
takes time to update their sprawling physical plant.
5
Fact #01The vast masses of users are
low-end and will lag 2–3
years behind the high-end
users.
Fact #04Web design must aim at
optimal usability over more-
widely available speeds.
South-African users have
even slower connections.
Fact #02Bandwidth is one of the two
most important elements in
computing these days
(together with screen quality).
Fact #03Most users still save on
bandwidth and prefer a
moderate bandwidth at a
moderate price to the
highest-speed, highest-cost
option.
.
Why only a 50% growth?
1
3
24
6
Bandwidth Evolution
2014120 Mps
2018Upgraded to 300 Mps
1998-200849% Mps
Year-on-Year growth
It confirms Nielsen’s Law
“Users' bandwidth grows by 50% per year
(the new law fits data from 1983 to 2018).”
7
5G and Fibre co-existenceThe debate …
8
Fibre Optic NetworksThe right to exist
High-speed wireline networkImproved speed, security and bandwidth,
over legacy copper systems.
Long haul networksHigh performance over long distances. Fibre can
travel as far as 40 miles without losing signal
strength.
Fibre to the premisesFibre is increasingly being used in metro and access
networks instead of copper, businesses choose to
continue the fibre connection all the way to their
premises (FTTP).
Transmit and receiveIn essence, fibre optic networks are limited only by
the technology used to transmit and receive signals.
Ideal worldEvery phone, smart sensor and mobile device
directly connected to the fibre backbone.
Bridge distanceBridge the short distance between a mobile device,
business as well as the fibre backbone.
Non-exclusive5G wireless small cells and their fibre wireline
networks will never be mutually exclusive.
In the 5G-worldCustomer experience will be improved by better small
cell wireless access points. But ultimately quality and
reliability of the wireless network will depend on
the wireline (fibre) network carrying traffic to and from
the 5G small cells.
9
Small Cells
5G wireless small cells and their
fibre wireline networks will never
be mutually exclusive.
Internet Traffic
According to Delloite, only 11% traffic
is carried by wireless networks and 90%
is supported and carried by the wireline
network.
Future trends of 5G wirelessDepend on fibre implementation
5G Customer Experience
Improved by better small cell
wireless access points. But
ultimately, quality and reliability
of wireless network will depend on
the wireline (fibre) network carrying
traffic to and from the 5G small
cells.
5G Spectrum Allocation
It’s up to policymakers and business
owners to take advantage of this
asset.
Internet-of-Things (IOT)
.
IoT is growing faster than predicted to
contribute to billions of devices every
year. Network scalability is necessary
to accommodate huge number of
additional devices and technologies in
the future such as M2M
communication, smart devices and
sensors, high-end algorithms etc.
10
5G Challenges
11
Frequency Band
1
> 50 below 3.6 GHz
2
Inoperability across countries requires
support of multi bands Challenge for handset manufacturers
5G NR mmWave
e.g. 24.25-27.5 GHz, 27.5-29.5
GHz
24 GHz100 GHzSource: Qualcomm
6 GHz
5G NR sub-6GHz
e.g. 3.4-3.6 GHz
Unified across spectrum bands
12Huge Data VolumeHuge trend towards video
Gaming Virtual RealityAugmented Reality
13
Beamforming
✓ To avoid transmission power wastage, new generation wireless transmission technology
will use beamforming method to efficiently transmit data to user devices.
✓ Beamforming technology will locate the user’s location precisely and transmit signals to
that direction using sophisticated antenna array system.
✓ Base stations’ operating power can be significantly reduced by beamforming concept.
✓ Beamforming is a complex task to locate each device under a particular cell and it needs
high level processing at base stations.
14
Rural Challenges
Getting around rural challenges
15
5G Myths & Truths
16
5G is all about making
smartphones faster
01
5G is all about bandwidth
02
5G will only really impact the telecoms
industry
03
5G will completely replace 4G
04
Five myths about 5G
05
5G coming to
town very soon!
17
It should have wide-ranging benefits on many
other industries.
5G is 100 times faster than 4G
Once rolled out 5G will increase the
effectiveness of IoT self-driving cars, robotics,
healthcare and more.
Increase effectiveness of IoT
Example:
By using 5G over the cloud, robots
will reach their full potential in
manufacturing and other services
like hospitality. Robots will be able
to work alongside humans and will
be controlled by operators using AR
headset.
1
2
Myth 15G all about making Smartphones faster
18
5G is all about bandwidthMyth 2
Although there is some truth to this, its real benefit is low latency connectivity.
It's not just about how much data you transfer (bandwidth) at any one time,
but also the speed at which you can do it.
Once fully deployed 5G will be a game changer for many industries and should
allow for near-instant data transfer
For example, it could help doctors perform surgery using surgical robots.
195G will only really impact the telecoms industry
Myth 3
This is simply not the whole story.
Of course, it will also be revolutionary for telecoms,
but not only the telecoms industry, it is likely to make inroads
into many other industries like entertainment and even farming.
Example, 5G could be used for near-instant
communication between different farming apparatus,
Allowing one operator to remote-operate various
things from tractors to combine harvesters
and much more.
20
Most analysts believe it would be decades
away before 4G became extinct.
In theory, but not necessarily
This will take years. 5G requires
clusters of antennas that are closer to
users.
5G to completely replace 4G
Myth 4
5G requires new infrastructure to be build
It is simply not cost effective to
completely abandon existing 4G
networks just yet
1
2
It is simply not cost effective to
completely abandon existing 4G
networks just yet
21
If you live or work in certain areas of big cities in major countries,
then this is sort of true. But for everyone else, especially in remote parts
of the world, it will be some time yet before it arrives.
5G coming to town very soonMyth 5
22
5G Applications
23
Non negotiable … !
Ultra Reliability Ultra Low Latency Security
24
5G Applications
.
AI and IOT Autonomous vehicles
Applications
Remote medical
monitoring, patient care,
and surgery.
Require ultra reliable
network.
Applications
Remote factories, robots,
machine learning, M2M,
improved efficiencies, pay-
as-you-use, predictive
maintenance.
Applications
V2V, Vehicle to
infrastructure, 24-Hour
logistics, safer roads, less
congestions, fuel saving and
lower emission.
Applications
Remote & physical
security, facial
recognition.
Difficult to ensure security
due to diversity of
technologies.
Impact
Complete disruption of
efficient production on
large scale
Impact
Accidents, congestion,
real-time reaction failure
Impact
1 Millisecond needs to be
achieved, any delay =
devastating results in
critical devices.
Impact
Instances of breach –
expedited, POPI act,
cybersecurity, and
transmission delays,
Medical Services Security VR & AR
Applications
Use in medical, property,
retail, etc. sectors.
Smart parking allocation,
product visualisation,
clothing recognition, and
simulation job tests i.e. test
afraid of heights.
Impact
Machine error & health
risks
25
5G South African Realities
26
Fact FourWhether you look at urban or rural
markets, investment opportunities
are there for private companies,
Fact ThreeRural dwellers have a hunger for life-
enhancing connectivity that matches
their urban counterparts.
Fact TwoEntrenching the digital divide is the
cost of developing & deploying
infrastructure in rural areas.
Fact OnePrivate investors focus first on
high-revenue generating business
and residential areas.
Generating RevenueBroadband providers look at business
case fundamentals, adequate sales
and revenue to roll out infrastructure
and support.
Rural areas the ‘losers’These underserved populations are
arguably most in need of the socio-
economic inclusion and upliftment
that high-speed Internet infrastructure
enables.
Resource companiesMining organisations in rural areas require
high-speed, latency-free connectivity,
especially as Industry 4.0 takes hold of key
automation and IoT components.
Despite cost and location the business
case for 5G in these markets may be the
strongest – providing a huge opportunity
for investors and sellers of 5G-ready
network equipment
SA not risk-free• ESKOM – power outages
• Unions
• Job losses can lead to increased
unemployment
• Exchange rate
• Political decision-making
South African Landscape
5G Rollout challengesReveal problems with only relying on
revenue-dense areas for market
introduction. Given these locations
already have fibre infrastructure that
can deliver high-speed data
connectivity via FTTX, coupled with a
well-designed WiFi deployment.
Disrupt existing ecosystem• Job losses
• Careers changes as we know it
• Shopping behavior transformation
• Impact on social interactions
27
Spectrum allocation
Spectrum cost
Spectrum obligation
3G to still dominate in
next 3-years
South African 5G Realities
Execution ability
Stable energy supply
ICASA’s ability to execute
28
5G not available in SA
Rollout of 5G network technology
will take longer than anticipated..
5G still has a long way to go,
especially from a business and
utilisation perspective.
5G operators consider fibre
important
5G is considered important for the
backhaul portion of the 5G networks.
In fact 83% say fibre is very important.
Need a strong ecosystem Key trends around 5G adoptions is
happening in mature markets
because the have a strong
ecosystem.
Cost five times more
than 3G & 4G
5G will solve a lot of problems in terms
of delivering superior connectivity
speeds and lower latency but looking
just at investment – it will be a
challenge.
Lots of fibre will be required
Although every network is different, the
above will remain true for each one that
supports 5G.
In Conclusion
5G needs more from a wired
network than predecessors
29Thank youKeep in touch with us
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Write Us
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1 Scott Street,
Waverley, 2090
Perhaps not in the next few years but somewhere in the future,
we would experience a much faster world.
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