Will Robots Inherit Earth?

Miko Elwenspoek

October 2006

Contents

• The robot challenges

• What is life

• Future of life

University of TwenteIMPACT

University of TwenteMESA+

http://www.nasa.gov/home/index.html

Robots in space

There have been some 1000 space missions or so,

20 with man

http://www.msl.ri.cmu.edu/projects/ballbot/video/ballbot_push.mpg

http://www.msl.ri.cmu.edu/projects/ballbot/video/nsh3305short.mpg

Needs

• Motors for turning the ball

• Angular position sensors (gyroscopes) measure deviation from upright position

• Accelerometers to measure position and correct drift of gyroscopes

• A control system

Control system

• Dynamic model

• Real-time algorithm

• Without model of the dynamics of the robots there is no control system

• There is no trial and error way to the robot

(in finite time)

Robot Challenges: Intelligence

• Perception: how to distinguish a house from anything else, recognizing people

• World modeling: What is essential, and what not.

• What is understanding. How to reason

• What is consciousness

• Does a translating computer understand the book?

Robot Challenges: Hardware

• Manipulation

• Locomotion

• energy harvest

• energy storage

• Sensors and actuators

• Real time computation

• Memory

Ultimate Robot Challenges

• Self-repair capability

• Self-reproduction

Evolution of robots

If there is no solution:

robots will not inherit earth

What is life

• Order: information storage and processing

• Evolution

•Metabolism•Reaction on environment•Homeostasis•Growth and development•Reproduction

Order

Adenine Guanine

Cytosine Thymine

We shall need nanotechnology for robots

Evolution

Limitations of Carbon technology

• Great demands on conditions for our life– Temperature– Pressure– Radiation level– Type of atmosphere– Energy supply only by organic substances– Without water no life

• Quite unclear whether substantial prolongation of life is possible

Future of life• Continuous threads from outside (meteorites) and inside (volcanism)• 109 years: sun becomes too hot to have liquid water on earth• 1-2 x 109 years: Andromeda collides with our galaxy. Galaxy will be

disrupted, solar system encounters dangerous environments• 5 x 109 years: Our sun will become a red giant• 6 x 109 years: Our sun will diminish to a white dwarf• 1012 years: all material has been processed in stars• Left over: electrons, positrons, electromagnetic radiation, neutrinos,

gravitons, black holes• Possible energy sources: black holes, gravitation

• If cosmic expansion is not too fast (no cosmological constant) life can harvest energy for thinking indefinitely

• Cosmological constant: expansion grows exponentially and everything will be disrupted eventually (this seems actually to be the case. No prospects for eternal life)

One day life has to leave earth

Probability for life

How big is the probability to assemble this sentence by accident?

Roughly #characters!=65!=1.2.3….64.65=8x1090

HOW OFTEN CAN THIS HAPPEN?

Assumptions:

• I have only these letters

• A letter has a surface of 1nm2 sentence has a surface of 65 nm2

• All planets are covered by one layer of letters 4(7x106)2 m2 5

1013m2/65nm2 sentences per planet = 1031 sentences per planet

• Each sun has one of these planets (size earth) (at most)

• 1011 suns, 1011 galaxies1022 planets in visible universe 1053 sentences

• Letters try every 1013 s a new configuration

• Age universe 4x1017s (enough material tom form life: 2x1017s)

• 1030 1053 = 1083 trials within Hubble sphere during life time

Probability for emergence of this sentence within Hubble sphere < 107

What is the minimum number of genes?

• A gene codes for one protein

• 3 nucleic acids for one amino acid

• 1 protein consists of 10’s to 1000’s of amino acids

• How many proteins do you need at least for life?

• Smallest functional DNA molecule > 200 bases (Dyson)?

Information processing and reproduction

• Two subsystems are needed: – information storage– Mechanism to read and copy information

• Example:– DVD– DVD-player– DVD burner

Life needs both analogues at the same time

Life from thermal fluctuations

Spontaneous emergence of life 1080/200! In Hubble sphere (calculator:200!=ERROR)

• lnN!=NlnN=1000 e1000=10430

• Probability to form life =1080/10430=10350

Variations in this calculation have no impact

At the same time you need the right proteins (?)

Probability to form life spontaneously = (10350)2=10700

Probability for lifeHow big is the probability to assemble this sentence by accident?

Roughly #characters!=65!=1.2.3….64.65=8x1090

HOW OFTEN CAN THIS HAPPEN? 10-8 time in visible universe during its existence

BUT: If there is a template so that in first place only H fits, in second only o, third only w… probability = 1

Essentially we have no idea: need to understand the process!

Is there life out there?

• Galaxy is full of amino acids• No life on Mars (?)• All attempts to create something self reproducing in

lab failed so far• On earth all existing life emerged from a single origin

(?)• A breakthrough to animals occurred only once (?)• SETI: no trace for intelligent life (?)• If space travel is not impossible a civilization will

colonize the galaxy within a few million years: Where are they?

Conclusion

• Good chance we are alone• We are responsible for the future of life• Robots can be constructed to function anywhere (?)• If self-reproduction possible for robots:

They will be madeThey will help usThey will out-compete usThey will replace us or - Perhaps we merge with robotsThey will colonize the universe

Greatest Problems

Consciousness

Reproduction

Do we dare?