Slide 1

TNO MACC-II European emissions Model-ready emission set for 2003-2009 Jeroen Kuenen, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Antoon Visschedijk TNO, Utrecht, The Netherlands Slide 2 Outline Motivation Emission database PM split in components Spatial distribution Conclusions and future work Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Slide 3 Motivation Air quality models needs good quality emission input, which should... describe all (anthropogenic) sources be consistent in time and space provide the best (scientific) estimate for the emission Why develop this inventory? Good emissions are the start of any environmental assessment However, simply taking EMEP (gridded) emissions does not work Gridded data are 50x50 km 2 and not always available Reported emissions is following guidelines, which is not necesserily applying the best science Often not consistent between (neighbouring) countries Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Slide 4 TNO_MACC-II emission inventory Updating and improving TNO_MACC inventory Improved point source representation Improved variation between years, adding 2008-2009 Harmonization with latest reporting to the extent possible Spatial resolution 1/8 x 1/16 degrees (lon/lat) ~ 7x7km Pollutants covered: NOx, SO2, NMVOC, NH3 CH4, CO PM10, PM2.5 (and components) Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Slide 5 In the ideal case, reported emissions from countries would be directly usable as input for AQ modelling This means that the largest contributing sectors are as expected, or else the difference can be explained This also means that trends in time series are understandable This works fine for a country like Germany... But... Reported emissions Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions A thorough check of availability and quality of reported data is crucial! Differences from (e.g.) -Errors in the data -Resubmissions by countries -Every historical year is reported every year, and methods change! Slide 6 Methodology in a nutshell Make use of official reported emissions (as of end 2011) where possible (staying as close as possible to what is used in policy) Reported emissions by source category (NFR/CRF) Disaggregated using IIASA GAINS emissions to 75 source categories Direct use of IIASA GAINS emissions in cases where reported data is not available or is not good enough Corrections for specific sectors/pollutants, e.g.: NOx and NMVOC from agriculture excluded Agricultural waste burning from GAINS for all countries CO not in GAINS; use of TNO internal bottom-up database Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia not in GAINS: data from EDGAR International shipping added from CEIP; additional in-port emissions from TNO expert judgement Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Slide 7 Results Consistent emission dataset for Europe (43 countries, 5 seas) and 8 pollutants, for 77 different source & fuel combinations Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions SNAP source categories: 1 energy industry 2 residential combustion 3-4 industry 5 extraction/distribution FF 6 product use 7 road transport 8 other mobile sources 9 waste 10 agriculture Slide 8 Change in emission Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Slide 9 PM components PM is a mix of many things, models need underlying information (PM split) Generic PM split (per SNAP) not good enough, because different fuels result in very different PM composition PM split defined per detailed source/fuel combination underlying the dataset (>200 categories) For both coarse & fine mode, split in EC, OC (full molecular mass), SO4, Na, other minerals Split based on literature where available, and expert judgement where needed Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions SNAP source categories: 1 energy industry 2 residential combustion 3-4 industry 5 extraction/distribution FF 6 product use 7 road transport 8 other mobile sources 9 waste 10Agriculture Slide 10 Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Slide 11 Spatial distribution Use generic spatial distribution system throughout Europe All emission sources distributed using proxy parameters, e.g. Population density (total, rural, urban) Road network for non-urban emissions Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Slide 12 Point sources Use of European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (and predecessor EPER): http://prtr.ec.europa.euhttp://prtr.ec.europa.eu EPER: 2001 and 2004 E-PRTR: annual data from 2007 onwards Used in TNO-MACC-II as relative proxy for distributing emissions for specific sector/fuel combinations (2004 proxy for years 2003-2005, 2007 also for 2006) Where E-PRTR data not available or not suitable, TNO PS info from TNO_MACC-I has been used as proxy for distributing emissions Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Slide 13 Resulting emission maps Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions NH3 in 2003 SO2 in 2009 Slide 14 Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions EC 2009 NOx 2009 EC 2009 2003 NOx 2009 2003 Slide 15 Conclusion and outlook TNO_MACC-II: consistent and complete emission inventory for UNECE-Europe, in line with official emissions and suitable for policy analysis and support using AQ models Already used in various research activities involving modelling e.g. MACC-II, AQMEII-2 model intercomparison study Outlook; what we would like to do more Add more years (2010) Various semi-natural sources exist that are important for modelling AQ but not (well) covered in the reported emissions Examples: Agricultural waste burning, resuspension by road transport, Soil NOx emissions on the side we aim to make data on semi-natural sources available as model input in the same format Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Slide 16 Poster: E. Dammers et al., A regional analysis of biogenic soil NO x emissions across Europe Soil NOx adds 0.39-0.49 Tg N for Europe (~10%) Jeroen Kuenen MACC-II European emissions Thank you for your attention! This work was funded by Interested in using TNO_MACC-II data? Please contact us! jeroen.kuenen@tno.nljeroen.kuenen@tno.nl; hugo.deniervandergon@tno.nlhugo.deniervandergon@tno.nl