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ANNOUNCER: This is NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT with Tyler Mathisen and
Susie Gharib, brought to you by --
(COMMERCIAL AD)
SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Record breaker. The
Dow and S&P 500 hit all-time highs, and the NASDAQ scores its highest close
in 13 years. But will tomorrow`s employment report change all that?
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TYLER MATHISEN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Verdict. Theformer
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) trader who became a symbol of Wall Street greed and
deceit during the financial crisis is found liable of defrauding investors.
GHARIB: And long-term care insurance. The industry is shrinking,
premiums are soaring, and many say, the system is rife with problems. Is
any there fix? Find out in part two of our special series, "How to
Navigate Long-Term Care."
We have all that and more tonight on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for
Thursday, August 1st.
MATHISEN: Good evening, everyone, and welcome.
Stand back, get out of the way, stocks are on a roll. Unstoppable?
Of course, not. But moving nonetheless into pricey new neighborhoods.
New all-time closing highs today for the Dow, the S&P 500, the S&P
400, the mid-cap stocks, the Russell 2000, the small cap shares and the Dow
transports. And the NASDAQ shooting to levels not hit since September
2000.
At the close, the Dow ended 128 points higher, the NASDAQ ahead by 49,
and the S&P 500 added 21, closing above the 1,700 mark for the first time
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ever.
Crude prices also shot up today, seeing their third best gains so far
this year, up nearly $3 a barrel to close just below $108. Positive
economic data from China, Europe and here in the U.S. set the table for
today`s stock market feast.
With more on what drove stocks to those record highs today, we turn to
Bob Pisani at the New York Stock Exchange.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOB PISANI, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Fora
good part of this earning season, we`ve heard comments from companies that
lackluster earnings in the first half should improve in the second half,
along with the economy. Well, today, the bulls got some ammunition as a
July manufacturing report for the United States came in stronger than
expected, with strong showings for new orders, as well as employment.
Manufacturing reports in Europe and China were also a bit better than
expected. The major industries reacted by moving to historic highs.
That`s a bit of a surprise considering that interest rates yields on this
10-year Treasury bond moved up, as well. In the past higher rates have
rattled stocks but maybe that`s changing.
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GORDON CHARLOP, ROSENBLATT SECURITIES: The interesting thing about
interest rates going up a bit, doesn`t seem to be scaring the market.
Sometimes when interest rates move higher, that can actually be a catalyst
for increased economic activity.
PISANI (on camera): The bottom line: there is a lot riding on the
jobs report tomorrow if it`s a little stronger than expected, say, over
200,000 jobs created, interest rates are likely to raise a bit more. If
the stock market holds up, traders really will begin to believe that stocks
are becoming increasingly comfortable with slightly higher rates.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bob Pisani, at the New York Stock
Exchange.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GHARIB: Investors will be watching those jobs numbers but here are
some other stats Wall Street pros are talking about. Seven stocks in the
S&P are trading at prices higher than $400. That`s only seven of the 500
companies in the index.
Here is a look at the five highest price shares. As you can see, they
are up between 28 percent to 50 percent. The other two are this elite $400
club, AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG). And what
about Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)? It`s the only one in the group that`s down so
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far this year.
MATHISEN: Well, Susie, those investors that sent stocks to records
tomorrow will have even more to chew on tomorrow, that, of course, when the
Labor Department releases the non-farm job report for July.
So, what numbers will Wall Street look for? And what`s driving the
recent rise in hiring?
Hampton Pearson takes a look ahead to Friday`s report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HAMPTON PEARSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):
Ahead of Friday`s government employment report, there`s been all kinds of
data showing the job market gaining strength. Weekly jobless claims
falling to a 5 1/2-year low. Private sector employers adding 200,000 jobs
last month, according to payroll processor ADP. Even the face of the
layoffs is slowing down, just under 38,000, down 4.2 percent, according to
Challenger Gray and Christmas.
Manufacturing accounts for 12 percent of the economy expanded at its
fastest pace in two years, fueled by demand for new autos and materials
needed for the housing recovery.
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For traders and market watchers, the sweet spot jobs number is the
consensus forecast of around 185,000 jobs added to July payroll.
KENNY POLCARI, EQUITY TRADER: We need to see at least, if not better,
if we want to continue to believe that the economy, in fact, has rounded
that corner, that we`re moving in the right direction and that, you know,
everything the government tells us is happening is in fact happening.
PEARSON: A July jobs number north of 220,000 would be viewed by
markets as a green light for the Fed to move up its timetable for tapering
its economic stimulus.
POLCARI: It`s going to give another reason for people to speculate
and for Ben Bernanke to say, OK, in fact, we are data dependent, we said
we`re data dependent, we`re creating these jobs, look at the pace we`re
creating them. And so, it`s going to give them the leverage to say to
almost have an out to start the taper comes September.
PEARSON (on camera): Market watchers and economists will be
scrutinizing tomorrow`s employment report for any numbers that show the
impact of sequester on job growth.
For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Hampton Pearson in Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
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GHARIB: It`s a new month with new records, so now, what happens?
Let`s get some answers from Michael Ryan, who`s chief investment strategist
and head of wealth management research at UBS.
Mike, nice to have you.
I mean, this has been a phenomenal year for the stock market. Are we
seeing the second leg of the bull market? I mean, what is your outlook?
MICHAEL RYAN, UBS, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST: I actually think
stocks continue to go higher, but I think we have to temper our enthusiasm
a little bit, because I actually thin the second part of this is going to
be different than the first. You kind of have this rerating of stocks
driven by an absence of malaise. We didn`t have a lot of bad news, a lot
of things weren`t` melting down or blowing up.
I think in the second half, though, we`re going to have to continue to
see is better revenue growth, better corporate earnings, and improving
macro (INAUDIBLE). I heard Bob Pisani talking about these expectations
about better growth. We need to see that validated in the second half of
the year in order to extend this rally.
MATHISEN: Are you expecting that better growth to kick in or what do
you think?
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RYAN: We are, Tyler. I think what you are going to see now is I
think was evidenced by some of the economic data this week. You know, the
ISM report was encouraging not only in terms of the headline number but
also the components. If you look at the more forward-looking components,
that`s actually the most constructive part of the report, suggests to us
that the growth dynamic over the course of the next couple months is going
to be constructive.
I would also argue, obviously, that tomorrow`s employment report is
going to be important in terms of setting a tone, because we need to see if
we`re starting to see this business improvement picking up in terms of
hiring.
GHARIB: All right. Let`s talk a little bit more about that jobs
report. I mean, talk us through that if the number comes in on the high
end, or if it comes in on the lower end, what impact is that going to have
on the markets?
RYAN: Well, first of all, I kind of -- we have to move away from this
notion that, you know, bad news is good news. I think, actually, you know,
good news is good news, and that if we get an employment report that comes
in at/or below consensual expectations, I think that can extend the gains
we`ve seen in the equity markets.
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So, I think it`s going to be really important in three aspects (ph).
Number one, we have to see the rate of employment growth is still in that,
let`s say, 185 to 215 range. Secondly, we do have to see improvement in
terms of the unemployment rate coming down and has to be in an environment
where we`re not seeing people leaking out of the labor force. It`s got to
be one where the labor force remains really static.
MATHISEN: You know, a lot of the time, rising interest rates are
anathema to rising stock prices. But do you think that equity investors
now gotten comfortable with the idea that rates are up and probably likely
to continue to move higher. The 10-year was at 270 today.
RYAN: I say it depends to a large extent on why rates are rising.
You know, if rates are rising because there`s a fear that inflation is
accelerating and that it may force a tightening of policy, then that`s one
thing. If rates are beginning to move higher because we`re seeing a
normalization of the business cycle, we`re seeing improvement macro
conditions. I think that`s actually very healthy for stocks.
In fact, we argue that we`re entering sort of a sweet spot with regard
to rates when you look at stocks because when rates are very, very low,
it`s a sign of stress. When rates are very, very high it`s a sign, you
know, price pressures are picking up and the Fed may have to tighten.
So, actually, we`re entering the period that should be constructive
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for stocks.
GHARIB: Mike, let me go back to what you said at the very beginning,
where you said, you know, investors shouldn`t get carried away by today`s
rally and these new records.
So, should investors sell into these rallies, you know, get into
position and take the best that they have gotten so far this year, take the
process now?
RYAN: No, I wouldn`t say you want to sell them, but I do want -- I do
think you need to continue to reposition during this market. For example,
you know, what had worked earlier in the year is not likely to work through
the balance this year. You know, there`s been this gravitation towards the
higher yielding sector and more defensive sectors. We continue to see a
rotation now throughout the balance this year away from those sectors that
performed really well in the early part of the year against the more
cyclical sectors because we think that`s where you get better opportunity
for earnings growth and where we still think evaluations more attractive.
GHARIB: All right. Sounds good. Thank you so much.
RYAN: Thank you.
GHARIB: Michael Ryan of UBS.
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MATHISEN: If you were bringing a company public, wouldn`t you like to
do it on a record-breaking day for stocks?
Well, two companies did start trading today but only one caught the
wave. Shares of Sprouts Farmers Market, an organic grocer with 160 storms
across the U.S., shot up or sprouted a staggering 122 percent on their
first day, trading at NASDAQ.
Different story, though, for American Homes for Rent, a California-
based real estate investment trust that rents out single family homes.
Shares there ended 2.5 percent lower.
GHARIB: Cars and trucks were rolling out of showrooms in July. It
was a bonanza month for American automakers. The Big Three reported double
digit gains as consumers continue to buy new cars to replace their aging
vehicles. Pickup trucks and smaller more fuel efficient models were the
big drivers last month.
General motors topped Detroit`s Big Three in sales growth with a 16
percent increase and as you can see there, both Ford and Chrysler posed
sales increases of 11 percent.
MATHISEN: And Ford Motors, in the meantime, has agreed to pay a top
fine to settle a dispute over a recall fight. Ford will pay the government
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$7.35 million to settle allegations that it was slow to recall nearly a
half million Ford Escape SUVs last year to fix sticking gas pedals that
could cause a crash. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
says Ford knew about the problem, back in May of 2011 but failed to take
any action until the agency began its own investigation more than a year
later.
The billionaire investor Carl Icahn is suing Dell (NASDAQ:DELL), in an
attempt to stop proposed rule changes for tomorrow`s scheduled shareholder
vote on Michael Dell`s $24 billion offer to take the PC maker private. The
lawsuit is aimed at stopping Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) from rescheduling the vote
and changing the record date, which is the day shareholders had to own the
stock to qualify to vote. Mr. Icahn believes changing the record date
could color the outlook -- outcome but letting more recent shareholders
vote.
GHARIB: The International Trade Commission is delaying its decision
until August 9th on whether to ban imports of certain Samsung phones for
violating Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) patents. The commission rules earlier this
year that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) violated some Samsung patents and the ban on
some iPhones will start on Monday unless President Obama intervenes.
A huge fine to tell you about, this one from one of the nation`s
largest banks. Citigroup (NYSE:C) will pay a $590 million settlement to
resolve a shareholder lawsuit, accusing the bank of hiding tens of billions
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of dollars in bad mortgage securities from investors during the height of
the financial crisis. The shareholder lawsuit cited Citigroup`s more than
$27 billion on losses in 2008 after its share price plunge from nearly $48
a share at the end of 2007 to under $3 a share by 2009.
MATHISEN: A historic victory for Wall Street regulators in a New York
City federal courtroom today, in the first big civil fraud case tied at the
2008 financial crisis. A former Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) trader found
liable of six out of seven counts in a massive mortgage securities fraud
case.
Mary Thompson was in the courtroom for the verdict.
And, Mary, investors have frequently criticized the SEC for either not
being tough enough, others for striking out in high-profile cases like this
one. What does this victory mean for the SEC?
MARY THOMPSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Well,this is a
big win for the SEC. Lawyers that I spoke with say this will likely
embolden the agency to be more aggressive in the future in going after both
individual and entities or corporations in pursuing any claims that they
have against them.
Basically, since the financial crisis, three of the SEC`s cases have
gone to trial. It`s score card is essentially one loss, one split, and
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today`s victory. And with the victory being the latest, again, this would
give the SEC added, I guess you could say, swagger to its steps when it
goes out and pursues additional actions.
Now, per the financial crisis, which, of course, was in 2008, running
up against that five-year limit on the statute of limitations, but in the
civil cases such as those brought by the SEC, they can still pursue these
cases and seek penalties from whatever entities and individuals they
charge. They just can`t seek a lifetime ban from the security`s industry.
GHARIB: Well, speaking of those penalties, I mean, what does this
mean for Fabrice Tourre? You know, what kind of fines or penalties is he
facing?
THOMPSON: Well, Susie, that will be determined in the future, in the
next -- within three weeks, both sides need to present their proposals for
penalties to the judge, who will then review them and decide on them.
The problem is the Judge Katherine Forrest has a trial. So, it could
be some months before she decides on penalties. And at that point, Mr.
Tourre`s team, if they decide to do so, could say they will appeal that
decision. Something that could be quite likely.
Back to you.
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MATHISEN: Mary Thompson, thanks very much.
Well, still ahead, the enemy within. A top security expert says the
next Edward Snowden could come from a company like Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO),
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) or Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) -- one that already knows a
lot about you.
But, first, a look at some of the stocks that hit all-time highs
today.
(MUSIC)
GHARIB: Worries about cyber attacks are back. A posting on chat
forum Pastebin warns of a wave of cyber attacks against big American banks.
The message is from a group called al Qassam Cyber Fighters, and it says
the attacks will be hit in the coming months. So far, only one bank,
Regions Financial, has been attacked.
The group targeted nearly two dozen financial institutions over the
past year, freezing their Web sites and mobile apps so customers could get
access to them. Banks like JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) have been pledging more
resources to build sophisticated technology to prevent these attacks.
MATHISEN: Well, that threat is a timely reminder of why the annual
Black Hat Conference is taking place in Las Vegas right now, bringing
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thousands of computer hackers and cybersecurity experts together to show
off their skills and the latest technology to thwart such attacks.
Much of the talk this year is about admitted NSA leaker Edward
Snowden, who incidentally was given temporary asylum in Russia today, and
where the next Edward Snowden may come from. The answer may surprise you.
Eamon Javers is in Sin City and joins us now with more -- Eamon.
EAMON JAVERS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Tyler.
Well, normally here at Black Hat, government security expert and
independent hackers and private company executives who focus on
cybersecurity all worked pretty well together. This year, however, a lot
of tension in the room, a much different story, the number one topic of
decision, as you have said, is the revelations by Edward Snowden about what
the NSA has been up to.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People in the community are very, fairly
skeptical. I mean, they are professional skeptics.
JAVERS (voice-over): The NSA`s surveillance programs are a hot topic
at Black Hat this year, the first big hacker and cyber conference since
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Edward Snowden leaked top secret information about the programs in June.
And while hackers have made their disposal clear over just how much data
the government is collecting, some say the biggest threat to our privacy
comes from an unexpected source.
JEFF MOSS, BLACK HAT FOUNDER & DIRECTOR: Maybe Edward Snowden is the
tip of the iceberg, but I`m waiting for Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) leaker, or the
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), or the Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), or, you know, some other
Yendex, some other search engine, somebody that has more data than we
understand that they have.
JAVERS: Jeff Moss is the founder of Black Hat and def com, two of the
biggest cyber security and Def Con, two of the biggest cybersecurity and
hacker conferences in the world, and is a current advisor to the Department
of Homeland Security. He says people would be surprised to discover just
how much these companies know about us.
According to "The Wall Street Journal", Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) has
credit card information on more than 200 million Android owners and is
facing push back on its privacy policies in Europe.
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) with over a billion accounts has access to even
more data on its users.
MOSS: There is no oversight committees. There is no congressional
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inquiry into what, you know, these giant search engines are doing with our
data.
JAVERS: And in a world that`s more reliant on technology than ever
before, people may have to get used to the fact that privacy may be a hard
thing to come by.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
JAVERS: And, guys, actually, not everybody here is a supporter of
Edward Snowden. We talked to a number of folks who don`t like what Snowden
did and, of course, there are a lot of people here who are actually working
for the government agencies in the Department of Homeland Security. So,
there is some divided opinion here. Nonetheless, a fairly strong under
current of support for Edward Snowden, Tyler.
MATHISEN: Eamon Javers, thanks very much. Eamon Javers, reporting
from Las Vegas.
And to read more about the Black Hat hackers conference, log on to our
Web site, NBR.com.
GHARIB: Let`s turn now to our "Market Focus".
And we begin with ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM). It was the biggest drag on
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the Dow today. ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) disappointed investors, reporting a
19 percent drop in quarterly profits. The company said production was down
and refinery earnings fell. Shares of XOM sold off right at the open and
were down more than 2 percent before making up some ground to close at
$92.73, off more than 1 percent.
A different story for ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP). Earnings fell
compared to a year ago, but production gained and profits beat estimates.
Shares gained almost 2 percent to $66, touching a new high as investors
bought Conoco`s turnaround story.
Another positive report, Dow component Procter and Gamble`s profit
fell 4 percent. But that was less than expected. Returning CEO A.G.
Lafley said, quote, "We`re committed to making changes we know we need to
make."
Investors were cheered by his optimism and shares gained more than 1
1/2 percent on heavy volume, closing $81.64.
After the market closed, AIG says it`s paying a dividend for the first
time since the height of the financial crisis. And it also announced $1
billion buyback program. Profits in his core casualty and life insurance
segments were strong, as well. Investors anticipated a good earnings
report, so they were bidding up shares nearly 3 1/2 percent, to $47 and
change, and they popped higher in after-hours trading.
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MATHISEN: Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) led the S&P 500
winners today, after swinging to a profit in the quarter. Pioneer drills
for gas throughout the Southwest and benefit from oil and gas prices.
Investors piled sending it to a new high and a gain of 12.5 percent on more
than four times the usual trading volume.
Blowout quarter for LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD), profits up 33 percent,
revenue up 59 percent, guidance increased again, as membership grows to
$238 million. So, another new high in a market that had a few, LinkedIn
(NYSE:LNKD) closing at $213. Shares popped more than that after the bell.
Meanwhile, Avon products said sales rose, thanks to the biggest market
Latin America. But the Department of Justice rejected the company`s 12
million dollar offer to settle a bribery probe. Shares popped on the
earnings, on the legal developments, ding dong Avon falling, closing down 3
1/2 percent on four times normal volume.
GHARIB: Coming up on the program: a perfect storm is hitting the
long-term care insurance industry. And now with baby boomer demand
expected to rise, is there any fix in sight? The second part of our
special series, "How to Navigate Long-Term Care" is next.
But, first, a look at how commodities, currencies and treasuries
performed today.
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(MUSIC)
GHARIB: A day of rallies for insurance stocks. Many of them soared
to 52-week highs today. Those companies are anticipating higher short-term
interest rates coming from the Federal Reserve. Lincoln National
(NYSE:LNC) and MetLife (NYSE:MET), the nation`s largest life insurer saw
the biggest gains in today`s session. Prudential, Aflac (NYSE:AFL), and
Principal Financial also posted solid increases.
MATHISEN: Meantime, the long-term care insurance industry has taken
some real hit. Many insurers mispriced their products, misjudging how
expensive nursing home and in home care would get. The industry has
responded with new underwriting standards, new prices, but some say the
government now needs to step in to make it easier and more affordable for
more aging baby boomers to sign up for coverage.
Bertha Coombs has the second in NBR series on "How to Navigate Long-
Term Care" on an industry in transition.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BERTHA COOMBS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over):
Long-term care insurers paid out over $6.5 billion in benefits in 2012 to
more than a quarter of a million customers according to an industry study
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with some ongoing claims now topping seven figures.
JESSE SLOME, AMERICAN ASSN. FOR LONG-TERM CARE INS. EXEC. DIR:The
largest claim that`s still open is from a woman. She`s been on claim for
15 years. Her insurance policy has paid out $1.8 million to date and it
continues to pay. She only paid $881 for three years before her claim
began.
COOMBS: It`s an extreme case of unprofitable underwriting but
reflects the problems, which have rocked the industry over the last several
years, leading major plan providers MetLife (NYSE:MET), Prudential, and
Unum to stop selling individual policies.
MARC COHEN, LIFEPLANS, INC. CHIEF R&D OFFICER: There are a lot of
reasons for these market exits. The most important of which is companies
had a very difficult time hitting profit objectives.
COOMBS: Resulting in a virtual perfect storm. With long-term care
costs rising faster than expected, the rate of clients letting their
policies lapse much lower than estimated and investment expectations too
aggressive.
(on camera): But it`s been conditions in the bond markets that have
posed the biggest problem for insurers. Record low interest rates over the
last several years have made it virtually impossible to generate enough
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growth from their investment and bonds to meet the expected growth in
future claims.
SLOME: When interest rates start to rise again and they will, this
business will return to heightened profitability or at least levels where
it needs to be. So, it is sustainable.
COOMBS (voice-over): The Affordable Care Act had included plans for a
voluntary national long-term care insurance market but they were scrapped
when underwriting proved too unwieldy. Now, a congressional commission is
growing up new proposals on how to address what is expected to be a massive
surge in demand from coverage from 76 million ageing baby boomers.
COHEN: Right now, we have 10,000 people that are retiring every day.
We need more companies in the market to sell to meet that need.
COOMBS: Marc Cohen, co-author of a SCAN Foundation study on long-term
care reform, says it will take a combination of public and private sector
initiatives with government reinsurance as a backstop for long-term care
underwriters and getting more employers to help workers save for long-term
care as they do for retirement through 401(k)s.
COHEN: Taking advantage of the employer group market would be very
important. You know, less than 1 percent of employees in the United States
are working in firms that offer private long-term care insurance.
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COOMBS: Industry officials say with the Obama health plan launching
next year, the commission`s focus needs to be on private market solutions.
SLOME: I don`t see Americans ready to take on a new national program,
a new taxpayer paid program, not in the foreseeable future.
COOMBS: For NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, I`m Bertha Coombs.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MATHISEN: Our series "How to Navigate Long-Term Care" wraps up
tomorrow with a look at what to do when insurance isn`t an option. And for
more on the issue, log on to the Web site, NBR.com.
GHARIB: That`s NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT for tonight. I`m Susie
Gharib, thanks for joining us.
MATHISEN: Thanks for me, as well. I`m Tyler Mathisen. Have a great
evening everybody. We`ll see you back here tomorrow night.
END
Nightly Business Report transcripts and video are available on-line post
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