The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)cf.cdn.unwto.org/sites/all/files/pdf/unwto_pisa2014_ipk_jk_2pp_0.pdf · Results 2013 International tourist arrivals 1087 million +4.8% International

John G.C. KesterDirector

Tourism Market Trends Programme

World Tourism Trends

IPK 22st World Travel Monitor Forum

Pisa, Italy28-29 October, 2014

Note: this presentation is not subject to confidentiality.

Information included may be quoted provided the source is given

accurately and clearly.

The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

- a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know-how

- plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the interests of developing countries

- intergovernmental organization with membership includes 162 countries and territoriesand over 400 Affiliate Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations and local tourism authorities

- encourages the implementation of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its negative social and environmental impacts

- committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development

www2.unwto.org/en/content/who-we-are-0

Results 2013

International tourist arrivals1087 million

+4.8%

International tourism receipts(BOP Travel)

US$ 1198 billion (euro 902 bn)+5.1% (real terms)

+International passenger transport

(BOP Transport, passenger)US$ 214 billion (euro 161 bn)

www.unwto.org/facts

International tourist arrivals and tourism receipts

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

'90/89

'91/90

'92/91

'93/92

'94/93

'95/94

'96/95

'97/96

'98/97

'99/98

'00/99

'01/00

'02/01

'03/02

'04/03

'05/04

'06/05

'07/06

'08/07

'09/08

'10/09

'11/10

'12/11

'13*/1

2

% c

ha

ng

e o

ve

r p

rev

iou

s y

ea

r

International tourist arrivals

International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely

Asian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower

11S, SARS, economic downturn:receipts more affected

‘Great recession’:receipts more affected and slower to recover


International tourism receipts 2013:

US$ 1,198 billion euro 902 billion

(miles de millones)

Inbound tourism: World

International tourism, 1995-2013* (index, 2006=100)

6266

69 7073

79 79 81 81

89

95100

106 108104

111

117122

127

7074

77 7882

88 86 86 84

9295

100

106 107

101

108112

117

123

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*


International tourism receipts


2014

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution

World (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

International tourism maintains strength

-3.9% +6.5% +5.1% +4.8%+4.1% +4.7%


World (million)


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2014*

2013

2012

2011

2010

781 million intnl tourist arrivals through August, 36 million more than in the same period of 2013

International Tourist Arrivals (% change)


4.8

6.8

3.4

5.6

-2.9

54

5

8

3 3

4.7

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

World Europe Asia andthe Pacific

Americas Africa Middle East

13/12 14*/13 Jan-Aug

2013 and 2014 year to date by region

Clouds, Uncertainties

International Tourist Arrivals (% change)


-0.5

-4.4

5.3 4.93.8

4.85.8

9.1

4.8

-3.3

8.1

5.44.4 4.6

3.74.4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

07/06 08/07 09/08 10/09 11/10 12/11 13/12 14*/13Jan-Aug

Advanced economies

Emerging economies

Advanced destinations currently growing faster than emerging ones

(but the latter suffered less in the crisis and recovered quicker)

International Tourist Arrivals, Americas (% change)


3.9

2.3 2.6 2.5

89

6 67

3.4

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Americas North America Caribbean CentralAmerica

South America

13/12 14*/13 Jan-Aug

2013 and 2014 year to date by subregion

International Tourist Arrivals, Asia and the Pacific (% change)


3.4

11.3

4.6

11.1

5

7

2

6

86.8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Asia and thePacific

North-EastAsia

South-EastAsia

Oceania South Asia

13/12 14*/13 Jan-Aug


International Tourist Arrivals, Africa & Middle East (% change)


6.15.3

-2.9

34

3 3

5.6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Africa North Africa SubsaharanAfrica

Middle East

13/12 14*/13 Jan-Aug


Europe 2014


Europe (% change)


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Europe: growth well above long-term trend

-5.0% +3.1% +6.6% +4.2%+3.7% +4.8%


Europe (million)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014*

Europe 413 million intnl tourist arrivals through August, 17 mn more than in the same period of 2013

International Tourist Arrivals, Europe (% change)


4.1

2.7

7.1

5.6

4

7

3

-1

7

4.8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Europe NorthernEurope

WesternEurope

Central/Eastern Eu.

Southern/Mediter. Eu.

13/12 14*/13 Jan-Aug

International Tourist Arrivals, Europe (% change)


4.1

2.7

7.1

5.6

4

7

3

-1

7

4.8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Europe NorthernEurope

WesternEurope

Central/Eastern Eu.

Southern/Mediter. Eu.

13/12 14*/13 Jan-Aug


International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, Europe

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

'90/89

'91/90

'92/91

'93/92

'94/93

'95/94

'96/95

'97/96

'98/97

'99/98

'00/99

'01/00

'02/01

'03/02

'04/03

'05/04

'06/05

'07/06

'08/07

'09/08

'10/09

'11/10

'12/11

'13*/1

2

% c

ha

ng

e o

ve

r p

rev

iou

s y

ea

r


International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely

Asian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower

11S, SARS, economic downturn:receipts more affected

‘Great recession’:receipts more affected and slower to recover


International tourism receipts 2013:US$ 493 billion euro 371 billion

(miles de millones)

Inbound tourism: Europe

International tourism, 1995-2013* (index, 2006=100)

6468

72 7476

81 82 84 8690

95100

105 105100

103

109113

119

7174

78

84 86

9593 93 91

9496

100102 101

95 9599 101

105

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*


International tourism receipts


Outbound markets

World and regions: Outbound Tourism

International Tourism Expenditure (euro billion)

China

United States

Germany

Russian FederationUnited Kingdom

FranceCanadaAustraliaItalyBrazilSingaporeJapanKorea, Republic ofBelgiumHong Kong (China)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Emerging outbound markets remainedhot in 2013

International Tourism Expenditure: increase 2006-2013 (euro billion)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

China

Russia

n Fed

eration

United

StatesBraz

il

Austra

lia

Singapo

re

Canad

a

German

y

Untd Arab

Emirates

Malays

ia

Norway

Hong K

ong (

China)

Switzerl

and

Philipp

ines

France

SwedenQata

r

BelgiumKuw

aitInd

ia

Taiwan

Indon

esia

Ukraine

Colombia

Netherl

ands

Argenti

na

Thaila

nd

Denmark

Finland

Leba

non

Turkey

Poland

Czech

Rep

Mexico

New Ze

aland

Irelan

dSpa

inJa

pan

United

Kingdo

m

€ b

illio

n

International Tourism Expenditure:between 2006 and 2013 total up by euro 292 billion

(US$ 432 bn), from euro 610 bn (US$ 766 bn) in 2006 to 902 bn (US$ 1,198 billion) in 2013 (current terms) in

spite of crisisAverage annual growth rate in real terms +2.7% a year

High potential outbound markets


International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

China

United S

tates

German

y

Russia

n Fed

eratio

n

United

Kingdo

mFran

ce

Canad

a

Austra

lia Italy

Brazil

Singap

ore

Belgium

Japa

n

Korea,

Repub

lic of

Hong K

ong (

China)

Netherl

ands

Norway

Untd Arab

Emirates

Saudi

Arabia

Sweden

Spain

Switzerl

and

Taiwan

(pr. o

f Chin

a)

Malays

iaInd

ia

2013 2014* ytd

Major outbound markets2014 hot markets

B

RC


I

UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index

abs. number (n=303)


UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts

1%7%

32%

58%

6%1%

14%

35%

44%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

[0] Much worse [50] Worse [100] Equal [150] Better [200] Muchbetter

Prospects May-Aug. 2014

Prospects Sept.-Dec. 2014

Confidence slightly declining from high level

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World

Better

Equal

Worse


25

50

75

100

125

150

175

t1 t2'03

t3 t1 t2'04

t3 t1 t2'05

t3 t1 t2'06

t3 t1 t2'07

t3 t1 t2'08

t3 t1 t2'09

t3 t1 t2'10

t3 t1 t2'11

t3 t1 t2'12

t3 t1 t2'13

t3 t1 t2'14

t3

Prospects (before)

Evaluation (after)

Confidence slightly declining from high level

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: Europe

Better

Equal

Worse


25

50

75

100

125

150

175

t1 t2'03

t3 t1 t2'04

t3 t1 t2'05

t3 t1 t2'06

t3 t1 t2'07

t3 t1 t2'08

t3 t1 t2'09

t3 t1 t2'10

t3 t1 t2'11

t3 t1 t2'12

t3 t1 t2'13

t3 t1 t2'14

t3

Prospects (before)

Evaluation (after)

Europe confidence index remains high

UNWTO tourism business-cycle clock

May 2004

Upswing May 2003 Boom

Sep 2014

May 2009

Recession Downswing

Pros

pect

s co

min

g 4

mon

ths

Evaluation past 4 months

50

75

100

125

150

25 50 75 100 125 150 175

UNWTO tourism business-cycle clock, World

UNWTO tourism business-cycle clock

May 2003 May 2004

Upswing Boom

Sep 2014

Recession DownswingMay 2009

Pros

pect

s co

min

g 4

mon

ths

Evaluation past 4 months

50

75

100

125

150

25 50 75 100 125 150 175

UNWTO tourism business-cycle clock, Europe

Economic growth projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*

Advanced economiesEmerging economies

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

IMF: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertaintiesan uneven global recovery continues

chan

ge(%

)

Crude Oil Spot Price Brent (daily)

(US$ per barrel)

Source: US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

¿Cheaper oil?

Outlook

Projection 2014

(issued January)

Actual data

3.0%

3.1%

7.9%

5.0%

4.2%

4.8%

2014 Jan.-Aug.2013

World 4.7% +4% and +4.5%

Europe 4.8% +3% and +4%

Asia and the Pacific 6.8% +5% and +6%

Americas 3.4% +3% and +4%

Africa 5.6% +4% and +6%

Middle East -2.9% +0% and +5%

International tourism: projection full year 2013




7.8

0.2

3.1

-0.6

10.4

5.9 5.76.5

1.9

-3.9

6.5

5.14.1

4.7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*2015*

Forecast 2014: 4% to 4.5%(issued January)

Outlook: World ch

ange

(%)

?


7.3

0.4

3.4

2.2

4.85.4

5.0 4.6

0.3

-5.0

3.1

6.6

3.7

4.8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*2015*

Forecast 2014: 2% to 4%(issued January)


chan

ge(%

)

Outlook: Europe

?

International Tourist Arrivals

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

milli

on

Trend 1995-2010Tourism Towards 2030 projectionActual 1995-2013*

1.4 bn

1,087 mn

1.8 bn

527 mn


Actual Trend vs. Tourism Towards 2030 projectionWorld

UNWTO jointly with partners is working closely with stakeholders to move agenda forward

A number of meetings have taken place and three reports have been prepared taking stock of and analysing the current situation:

For more information and download of reports, see http://rcm.unwto.org/en/content/facilitation-tourist-travel

Thank you very much for your attention!John G.C. Kester

Tourism Market Trends Programme

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org

Documents

The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)cf.cdn.unwto.org/sites/all/files/pdf/unwto_pisa2014_ipk_jk_2pp_0.pdf · Results 2013 International tourist arrivals 1087 million +4.8% International