The Weekly Weighbridge

The Weekly Weighbridge

8 Augustus 2019

Important facts for the week

According to data from US Commodity Futures Trading Commission the US corn crop may have had the latest-ever start this season, but the US market speculators’ bullish sediment has lost steam in recent weeks as the weather has not been extremely threatening for crop development.

According to Deral, frosts this past weekend were less intense and widespread than at the beginning of last month in Brazil's

Paraná state, signalling that August will probably see less damage to crops. According to General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports in July increased by 8% from a year earlier, to their

highest level in almost a year as China increased their purchases of Brazilian soybeans on higher crush margins. China took in 8.64 MMT of soybeans in July, which is higher than the 8 MMT in the same month last year. That is 33% higher from the estimated 6.51 MMT in June 2019 and the highest since August 2018.

ZAR/mt Week

08 August 2019 01 August 2019 Move 08 August 2019 01 August 2019

SAFEX Sep'19 White Maize 2,985R 2,906R 79R ZAR/USD 15.00R 14.65R

SAFEX Dec'19 White Maize 3,072R 2,991R 81R EUR/USD 1.1205$ 1.1083$

SAFEX Sep'19 Yellow Maize 2,863R 2,798R 65R ZAR/EUR 16.81R 16.25R

SAFEX Dec'19 Yellow Maize 2,945R 2,874R 71R ZAR/GBP 18.23R 17.77R

SAFEX Sep'19 Soybeans 5,545R 5,430R 115R

SAFEX Dec'19 Soybeans 5,645R 5,525R 120R

SAFEX Sep'19 Sunflower 5,332R 5,199R 133R 07/08/2019

SAFEX Dec'19 Sunflower 5,475R 5,366R 109R 08/08/2019

SAFEX Sep'19 Wheat 4,500R 4,493R 7R 09/08/2019

SAFEX Dec'19 Wheat 4,487R 4,458R 29R

USD/mt Week ZAR/mt Week

FOB Origin 01 August 2019 Move Origin Country Move

FCA Durban

SA Sep'19 Soybeans 400$ 400$ 0$ US (HRW) Spot Wheat 10.1% 5,106R 98R

US Sep'19 Soybeans 339$ 338$ 1$ US (SRW) Spot Wheat 5,054R 154R

Brazil Sep'19 Soybeans 364$ 360$ 4$ Germany Spot Wheat 11.0% 4,646R (168)R

Argentina Sep'19 Soybeans 329$ 328$ 1$ France Spot Wheat 10.1% 4,452R 58R

Russia Spot Wheat 11.0% 4,822R 52R

Australian APW Spot Wheat 9.2% 5,009R 112R

SA Sep'19 Yellow Maize 202$ 205$ (3)$ Argentina Spot Wheat 10.6% 4,882R 82R

US Sep'19 Yellow Maize 188$ 183$ 5$ FCA Randfontein

Argentina Sep'19 Yellow Maize 165$ 163$ 1$ South Africa Spot Wheat 12.0% 4,500R 23R

Brazil Sep'19 Yellow Maize 170$ 166$ 4$

Black Sea Spot Yellow Maize (non GM) 194$ 194$ -$ FCA Klipheuwel

US Sep'19 Yellow Maize 3,743R 182R

SA Sep'19 White Maize 216$ 218$ (2)$ Argentina Sep'19 Yellow Maize 3,339R 117R

Brazil Sep'19 Yellow Maize 3,420R 151R

US Sep'19 White Maize 229$ 214$ 15$ South Africa Sep'19 Yellow Maize 3,213R 65R

Mexico Sep'19 White Maize 235$ 235$ -$

FCA Randfontein

US Sep'19 White Maize 4,441R 353R

Mexico Sep'19 White Maize 4,444R 130R

Wheat Published Tariff 958.00R

Maize

Wheat

Important dates

Export Parity Import Parity

Weekly Imports and exports

Weekly producer deliveries

Soybeans

(Wheat quality based on 12 % moisture & import tariff included)

Weekly USA export intentions

Protein

level

Yellow Maize

White Maize

Wheat

The Weekly Weighbridge

News for the week

Corn/Maize International corn prices traded higher this past week after US corn exports decreased to a 19-month low in June 2019 and exports were unlikely to have done much better in July 2019 as elevated prices and foreign competition continued to suppress export business for the world’s top corn supplier. According to data from US Commodity Futures Trading Commission the US corn crop may have had the latest-ever start this season, but the US market speculators’ bullish sediment has lost steam in recent weeks as the weather has not been extremely threatening for crop development. In the week ended 30 July 2019, hedge funds and other money

managers cut their net long in CBOT corn futures and options to 111,952 contracts from 153,216 contracts. Most of the Crop Watch corn fields received no rain for last week and the dryness is becoming especially critical for the corn in Indiana and Kansas, as producers reduced their yield potential this week. Ukrainian corn exports from sea ports during the week of July 27 August 2019 increased to 121,000 MT from 79,000 MT the previous week. The condition of the 2019 US corn crop decreased by 1% last week to 57% rated good to excellent. Nine states shown that the corn condition improved last week while 8 states shown that the corn condition decreased last week and one state was unchanged. The improvements and declines were found scattered across the Corn Belt. The top five rated corn states are: Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Kentucky, and a tie between Nebraska and North Dakota. The five lowest rated corn states are: Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and Illinois. South African (SA) maize prices traded higher for White Maize and Yellow Maize for September 2019 and December 2019 due to higher Chicago traded corn futures prices and weaker ZAR. Wheat International wheat prices traded sideways this past week with attention of US market participants moving to next week WASDE Report with the US wheat crop and ending stock expected to increased. According to Deral, frosts this past weekend were less intense and widespread than at the beginning of last month in Brazil's Paraná state, signalling that August will probably see less damage to crops. Ukrainian wheat exports from sea ports during the week of July 27 August 2019 increased to 724,000 MT from 422,000 MT.

Egypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), bought 415,000 MT of wheat on an international tender for the grain. GASC said the purchase included 115,000 MT of Ukrainian wheat, 240,000 MT of Russian wheat and 60,000 MT of Romanian wheat. South African (SA) wheat prices traded higher for December 2019 due to weaker ZAR and higher import parity prices. Soybeans International soybean prices traded higher this past week with market participants having uncertainty before next week WASDE report. US soybean exports were record large for the

month as shippers look to fill the large amount of remaining sales to top buyer China. The US Department of Agriculture confirmed a private Chinese company bought 68,000 MT of soybeans in the week ended 25 July 2019, the first soybean purchase since Beijing offered to exempt five crushers from import tariffs imposed more than a year ago as part of a US-China trade dispute. US President Donald Trump and other top officials said Chinese President Xi Jinping promised large agricultural purchases when they met Trump at the G20 summit in Japan a month ago to restart stalled trade talks. Brazil's soybean exports decreased in July 2019 due to weaker demand from the world's largest importer, China. Soybean exports from the world's largest supplier decreased by 23% to a total 7.82 MT last month. According to General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports in July increased by 8% from a year earlier, to their highest level in almost a year as China increased their purchases of Brazilian soybeans on higher crush margins. China took in 8.64 MMT of soybeans in July, which is higher than the 8 MMT in the same month last year. That is 33% higher from the estimated 6.51 MMT in June 2019 and the highest since August 2018. The condition of the 2019 US soybean crop was unchanged last week at 54% rated good to excellent. Nine states indicated that the soybean condition improved last week while 7 states indicated that the soybean condition declined last week and 2 states were unchanged. There was no distinct pattern this week for the improvements and declines. The top five rated soybean states are: Tennessee, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Nebraska. The five lowest rated soybean states are: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri. South African (SA) soybean prices traded higher for September 2019 and December 2019 this past week due to higher Chicago traded soybeans futures prices and weaker ZAR.

The Weekly Weighbridge

Rainfall outlook for the next 10 days (Source: Windy.com)

ECMWF (European Model) GFS (American Model)

South Africa

South America

North America

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