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• “The weekly update” (the report) by Arcane Research is a report focusing on cryptocurrency, open blockchains and fintech. Information published in the report aims to spread knowledge about developments in the market for cryptocurrencies. All content that is published is for informational purposes only and no content is intended to be a recommendation for making financial transactions or investments. We do not provide financial advice and are not responsible for readers losses in the market
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3Nov 26, 2019
1 Market Update• Another red week in the crypto market
• Bitcoin is down almost 30% over the last
month
• Market sentiment down to “Extreme Fear”
• Bakkt volumes grow exponentially– open
interest to all-time high
2 Valuation
3 Blockchain Activity
• Will bitcoin find support here, or continue
down to the 200-week moving average
closer to $5,000?
• Bullish moving average crossover coming
up in the next couple of weeks
• Futures premium rates takes a hit
• 21% probability for BTC above $10,000 in
June 2020
• Indications of larger transactions on the
Bitcoin blockchain
• Transaction value on the Bitcoin blockchain
rebounds after large drop last week
• Number of ether (ETH) locked in DeFi
continues to surge
-26%
-22%
-18%
-14%
-10%
-6%
-2%
2%
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Top 3: Percentage change in price over the last week
ETH
XRP
BTC
MARKET UPDATE
5Nov 26, 2019
THE NEWSROOM
Nasdaq-powered DX.Exchange is
going through bankruptcy
proceedingsCrypto platform DX.Exchange is reportedly going
through bankruptcy proceedings, with 78 current and
former employees of the firm having filed a petition to
dissolve the exchange. Several suppliers have also
sued the exchange
Hedge Funds Were Net Short
CME Bitcoin Futures Going into
This DownturnHedge funds were overwhelmingly short during the
week of November 12th compared to the sell-side,
asset managers, and other groups.
Fidelity Digital Assets Gets NY
Trust Charter to Custody Bitcoin
for InstitutionsFidelity Digital Asset Services has obtained a trust
company charter from the New York Department of
Financial Services (NYDFS), allowing them to
custody bitcoin for institutional investors in NY.
6Nov 26, 2019
Another red week in the crypto market – BTC down almost 30% last month
Bitcoin correlation:All correlations increase this week, with S&P500 back positive.
Last week of top 50 by market capitalization
Source: coinmetrics.io
Source: cryptowat.ch
-26%
-21%
-16%
-11%
-6%
-1%
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Top 3: Percentage change in price over the last week
ETH
XRP
BTC
Source: cryptowat.ch
7Nov 26, 2019
Top ten by market capitalization Last Last week Last month YTD
Bitcoin 7084.29 -12.37% -27.15% 83%
Ethereum 144.93 -16.95% -22.46% 2%
XRP 0.22 -12.55% -27.40% -41%
Bitcoin Cash 209.80 -12.45% -21.17% 28%
Litecoin 46.57 -15.35% -23.70% 45%
EOS 2.60 -15.86% -23.08% -4%
Binance Coin 15.21 -17.37% -21.91% 147%
Bitcoin SV 104.30 -3.89% -29.77% 14%
Stellar 0.06 -11.57% -12.30% -51%
Tron 0.02 -10.86% -21.61% -17%
Best performing Last Last week Last month YTD
Seele 0.16 26.50% 170.30% 4495%
EDUCare 0.11 8.80% -23.83% 1199%
Tezos 1.24 4.17% 43.94% 164%
Cosmos 3.48 0.86% 8.02% -47%
Augur 10.43 0.61% 21.12% 27%
Worst performing Last Last week Last month YTD
Crypto.com Coin 0.03 -21.45% -26.02% 34%
Dash 50.42 -21.42% -30.76% -38%
NEO 9.13 -20.71% -20.23% 14%
Centrality 0.14 -20.00% 11.81% 426%
Ontology 0.61 -18.70% -34.90% -1%
BTC 0.828 0.017 0.590 0.009 0.192 0.010 0.037 0.084
90-day correlation
(weekly change included) ETH XRP GOLD S&P500
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
January 19 February 19 March 19 April 19 May 19 June 19 July 19 August 19 September 19 October 19 November 19
Extreme Greed
Extreme Fear
The Fear & Greed Index is now down to “Extreme Fear” again, as the
bitcoin price continues down. Although the price rebounded from the
lows at $6,800, it does not seem that the sentiment has turned around
just yet.
Now Last week Last month
Extreme Fear (21)
Fear (32) Greed (53)
Source: alternative.me
Market sentiment down to “Extreme Fear”
21
8Nov 26, 2019
Bitcoin volume rebounds with the price drop
▪ The 7-day average real trading volume* rebounds nicely after last week’s drop in
volume.
▪ As discussed last week, this is a positive signal, as the volume is now starting to trend
upwards again.
▪ The 30-day bitcoin volatility dropped sharply this week, and are now back to “normal”
levels, as seen before the 42% spike on Oct 25.
▪ Looking at the beginning of 2019, these spikes and drops are often followed by more
volatility again, so the next few weeks will be interesting to follow.
**ItBit exchange excluded. Source: cryptowat.ch
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19
*as defined by Bitwise Asset Management
Do
llar
(Millio
n)
9
Real BTC-USD Volume (7-day average)BTC-USD Volatility (30-day average)
Source: cryptowat.ch
Nov 26, 2019
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1 Nov 8 Nov 15 Nov 22 Nov
Large Mid Small Bitcoin
All indexes dragged down with the bitcoin price
▪ In a month that looked promising for alt coins, the recent price fall in BTC dragged down all other coins.
▪ Last week, Mid and Small Caps were up over 5% in November, but are now down between 15%-20%.
▪ Bitcoin, and Large Caps in general, are now down 25% in November.
▪ Bitcoin’s market dominance is stable and is up over the last week, while other large caps are struggling to keep up.
Source: Bletchleyindexes.com
Percentage of Total Market Capitalization
Monthly Performance of Market Capitalization Weighted Indexes
Source: Coinpaprika.com
10Nov 26, 2019
BTC ETH BCH LTC XRP DASH NEM XMR IOTA NEO
Market
Share65.66% 8.05% 1.94% 1.50% 4.79% 0.24% 0.16% 0.45% 0.29% 0.33%
Weekly
Change0.4% -5.7% -1.0% -4.9% 0.5% -9.3% 1.9% 0.1% -2.8% -6.9%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
23-Sep 30-Sep 7-Oct 14-Oct 21-Oct 28-Oct 4-Nov 11-Nov 18-Nov 25-Nov
Open
InterestVolume
Volume (BTC)
Open Interest (BTC)
552
Bakkt not affected by price drop – Open interest to all-time high
7858 BTC monthly contracts changed hands last
week on Bakkt
▪ Last week’s volume was 67% higher than the previous
week - another record weekend on Bakkt.
▪ A new daily record was seen last week as well, with
2,735 BTC traded on Nov 22.
▪ The total open interest has skyrocketed after the sell off
last week, and is now at an all-time high, 552 BTC.
No trades have been done for the daily BTC futures
contracts over the last seven weeks.
Source: Intercontinental Exchange
11
Bakkt ™ Bitcoin (USD) Monthly Futures Contract
Nov 26, 2019
VALUATION
12Nov 26, 2019
▪ As suggested last week, a drop down to $7,500 was not unlikely for bitcoin. This is the lowest levels seen since May. However, bitcoin crushed that support and didn’t turn around before the price hit $6,800.
▪ This level acted as support and the price is now close to $7,200 after a nice rebound in the beginning of the week.
▪ By zooming out and using weekly candles, we can see that the bitcoin price is now around the 100-week moving average.
▪ Will this level hold, or are we approaching the 200-week moving average that has acted as support both in 2015 and 2018/2019?
▪ However, a cross between the 50-week MA and the 100-week MA is about to happen. This is normally a bullish signal, and the area around $6,000-$7,000 could be the bottom.
13
Where will the bitcoin price find support?
50-week MA
100-week MA
200-week MA
Nov 26, 2019
December 2019 March 2020
CME 0.57% 1.97%
Other
platforms0.17% 1.57%
CME 7295
Other platforms 7265.5
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
Nov 19 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20
CME
Kraken, Bitmex, Deribit (Average)*
Last week
Last week
Futures premiums tumbles down – are investors turning bearish?
▪ Yet another week with negative price action. This did not
affect the futures premium rates last week, but that is
not the case this week.
▪ The March premiums for Deribit and Bitmex are almost
cut in half over the last week.
▪ Premium rates for December are getting closer to zero
on Kraken, Bitmex and Deribit, while CME holds around
0.6%.
▪ With November expiry coming up this Friday, the
premium rates are actually negative on Deribit. Are
investor seeing another dip this week?
Source: Kraken, CME, Bitmex, Deribit
BTC Futures Contracts Settlement Prices (Nov 26 – Mar 20)
*November contracts only represented by Kraken, and March by Bitmex & Deribit
14
Premium rates for BTC contracts
Nov 26, 2019
21% probability for bitcoin to be above $10,000 in June 2020?
15
26%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000
Pro
bab
ilit
y
BTC (USD)
Implied probability of BTC above given USD price at maturity
Nov 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
▪ Optimism has taken a hit after last week’s negative
price action.
▪ Options trading is now indicating a 21%
probability for BTC to be above $10,000 in the
end of June 2020.
▪ Looking at short-term pricing, there is a 26%
probability for BTC to above $8,000 in the end of
December 2019.
▪ Are options traders right, or are we seeing
options being priced to low after last week’s
drop?
Source: Skew
BLOCKCHAIN ACTIVITY
16Nov 26, 2019
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19
Confirmed Estimated USD Transaction Value: 7 Day Average
On-chain Bitcoin activity (7-day average)
Source: Blockhain.info, Coin Metrics
• The USD transaction value is picking up pace again, after dropping 40% last
week. The monthly trend is still positive, up close to 23%.
• As bitcoin transactions is almost unchanged from last week, this indicates larger
transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain over this volatile period.
• Miner fees are continuing down this week, but is also in the green over the last
month.
Are we seeing larger transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain?
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
330,000
350,000
370,000
390,000
Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19
Confirmed Transactions Per Day: 7 Day Average
17Nov 26, 2019
Last Last week Last month YTD
Transaction Value (bUSD) $1.06 22.12% 22.96% 130.35%
Transaction Count 305,130 -0.55% -5.96% 11.32%
Miner Fees (kUSD) $225,518 -5.15% 13.34% 290.12%
Active Addresses 719,510 2.47% 2.47% 29.70%
Number of ether (ETH) locked in DeFi continues to surge as price falls
• The Decentralized Finance (DeFi) market is just growing bigger every week.
• The total number of ether (ETH) locked in DeFi is now at 2.689 million.
• This equals 2.5% of all ETH, or 1 in 40 ETH locked in DeFi.
• It is worth mentioning that some of the increase is likely related to the price fall in ETH, as ETH is used as collateral in Maker.
18
Ether (ETH) Locked in DeFi
Source: Defi Pulse
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
April 18 October 18 April 19 October 19
2.689m ETH
Nov 26, 2019
Contact: [email protected]
