The Vital Statistics Systemin China

Wu Jie

Department of Population and EmploymentNational Bureau of Statistics of China

United Nations Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems

27 – 30 June 2011 New York

Total Population of 2010 Census

National Population

Outline

1. The Vital Statistics System in China

2. 2010 Population census in China

3. Annual Population Change Sample Survey

4. Administrative records

5. Comparing and evaluating the quality of vital statistics

Administrative records

Sample survey

Census

System

1. The Vital Statistics System in China

Sequence YearPopulation

(million)

First 1953 594.53

Second 1964 694.58

Third 1982 1008.18

Fourth 1990 1133.68

Fifth 2000 1265.83

Sixth 2010 1339.72

Censuses

The 1% population sample survey, conducted

during the inter-censual years ending in 5

The annual 1‰ sample survey on population

changes

Quarterly labor force survey

The monthly labor force survey, usually running in

big cities

Sample survey

Administrative records

Supplement sources to those collected

through regular population census and

sample surveys

2010 Population Census in China

Reference time

Respondent

Process of 2010 Census

Challenges

New Characteristics

Census Items

Initial findings

2010 Population Census in China

Reference time: 1 November 2010

Respondent: de Facto living persons; household registration persons (de jure) for

outgoing migrants

Preparation (Oct.2007- Oct.2010)Field enumeration (Nov.1-10,2010)Field check (Nov.11-20,2010 ) Post enumeration survey (Dec. 2010)Advance tabulation (Dec. 2010-Apr. 2011)Data processing (Dec. 2010- Dec.2011)Data dissemination (Apr.2011 ----–2013)

and utilization

Process of 2010 Census

Challenges for Census-taking in China

Difficulty in Counting Migrant Population

Greater Residence-registration Inconsistency

Lower Cooperation from Respondents

Under-reporting of Births

Difficulty in Recruiting Enumerators

Establishing strict quality control and acceptance systems

New Characteristics for 2010 Population Census

Stronger Legal Basis

Changes in enumeration method

Collection information on international migrants

Remote sensing images in aid of census divisions and mapping

Topics covered in the Census

Wider use of administrative records

Improving data processing efficiency

Stronger Legal Basis

Regulations on Population censusspecifies objectives, principles and methods

more emphasis on rights of respondents

stronger protection of privacy

Changes in enumeration method

de Facto approach (as compared with de jure approach used in 2000 census)

information also collected at the place of household registration (de jure) for outgoing migrants

operationally easier for enumerators

more information on migration

Collection information on international migrants

cover foreigners who have resided in

China for some time

a shorter questionnaire (8 questions) was

used and in-person interview was

conducted

Remote sensing images in aid of census divisions and mapping

divide census enumeration areas nationwide: nearly 7 million areas

remote sensing images were used in preparing maps of census areas and blocks: full coverage census areas without duplication or omission.

prepare basic material for the spatial analysis of population by combining census data and spatial positions.

Topics covered in the Census

combination of long form (10%) and short form (90%)

short form： 6 household items, 12 individual items

long form: 19 household items, 28 individual items

Wider use of administrative records

resident population and migrants information from the household registration administered by the Ministry of Public Security

birth information collected by family planning departments, the health department as well as the community and village committees

Improving data processing fficiency

a decentralized strategyOCR data entry, conducted at municipal-

levela Chinese-character handwriting

recognition technology: nationality and residence address directly identified

Establishing strict quality control and acceptance systems

quality control teams at all levelsa routine check-up and a random spot

check Post enumeration survey: after field

enumeration, a total of 402 enumeration blocks were randomly selected to conduct post-enumeration survey to compare with the records of census enumeration, which resulted in a population undercount rate of 0.12 percent.

Duplicated rate & Uncoverage rate

1982 Duplicated rate 0.15‰

1990 Uncoverage rate 0.6‰

2000 Uncoverage rate 1.81%

2010 Uncoverage rate 1.2‰

Items round 2010 census

Household & Individual:

sex, age, ethnicity, education level, industry, occupation, social security, marriage and fertility, mortality, migration, housing, unemployment

Short Form: Household Items (6)

• H1: household no.

• H2: type of household (family, collective)

• H3: number of persons

• H4: births and deaths during last 12 months

• H5: floor space of housing

• H6: number of rooms

Short Form: Individual Items (12)

• R1: name• R2: relation with head of

household• R3: gender• R4: date of birth• R5: nationality (ethnic group)• R6: place of residence at

reference time• R7: place of household

registration

• R8: duration since leaving place of household registration

• R9: reason for leaving place of household registration

• R10: nature of household registration (agri. vs

non-agri)• R11: ability to read• R12: education attainment

Long Form: Household Items (17)

• H1-H4: same as in short form

• H5: nature of housing

• H6: floor space of housing

• H7: number of rooms

• H8: type of building (single or multi-floor)

• H9: construction of building

• H10: time when building was constructed

• H11: with/without access to pipe water• H12: fuel for cooking

• H13: with/without kitchen

• H14: with/without toilet

• H15: with/without hot water bathing facility

• H16: source of housing

• H17: monthly rent (in case of renting)

Long Form: Individual Items (28)

R1-R12: for all persons

• R1-R9: same as in short form

• R10: nature of residence at household registration (urban/rural)

• R11: nature of household registration (agri. vs

non-agri)

• R12: place of birth

R13: (persons aged 5 and over)

• R13: address of residence 5 years ago

R14-16: (persons aged 6 and over)

• R14: ability to read

• R15: education attainment

• R16: status of completion of education

Long Form: Individual Items (28)

R17-25: (persons aged 15 and over)

• R17: status of employment

• R18: industry

• R19: occupation

• R20: reason for not working

• R21: whether having looked for work during last 3 months

• R22: able/unable to work in 2 weeks if given a job

• R23: sources of living

• R24: marital status

• R25: date of first marriage

Long Form: Individual Items (28)

R26: (woman aged 15-64) • R26: number of births (male, female) and number

of children surviving (male, female)

R27: (woman aged 15-50) • R27: fertility status during last 12 months

(with/without births, month when giving first or second and more birth, gender of baby)

R28: (persons aged 60 and over)• R28: health condition

Initial vital statistics findings

Total Population and Annual Growth Rate from Population Censuses

Sex Composition from Population Censuses

Age Composition from Population Censuses

Age Pyramid from Population Censuses

Proportion of Population Aged 60+ and 65+ from Population Censuses

Composition of Nationalities from Population Censuses

Population with College Education Per 100,000 Persons from Population Censuses

Population Migration

Geographic Distribution of Population

39

Residents from Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Foreigners

40

Annual Population Change Sample Survey (APS)

Established officially from 1983

Conducted by NBS in China once a year

Provide reliable population data at the national and provincial level every year such as:

– annual total population

– population structural

– fertility and mortality

– …

Items on APS

Covers key items that are collected in censuses

– sex, age, ethnicity, the level of education, marital status, fertility, mortality, migration and etc.

A survey methodology book is published every year for training and supervision

Sample Survey

Multi-stage, with stratified clusters proportional to size

Taking the whole country as the population and provincial level as sub-population

The sample size is 1.2 million persons

Sampling design methodPopulation annual and labor force quarterly

survey samples are rotated by

certain proportion

the whole country as population,

provincial level as sub-population

multi-stagestratified clusters

proportional sampling

Final sample unit is enumeration area,

enumeration areas divided by 30 households

The fourth quarter labor forcesurvey samples are the

same as population survey

The sample size（ 10,000 persons）

Population change

Quarterly

labor force

the whole Nation

120 60

Urban and Town

40 40

Rural 80 20

Average by province

4 2

Calculating main data from sample Survey

Estimating main data on population and sub population: Total population, CBR, CDR, …

Analyzing sampling variance

Evaluating data quality

Publications

Departments involved

The Ministry of Public Security

The Ministry of Civil Affairs

The Ministry of Health

The Ministry of Education

The Population andfamily planning committee

Administrative records

Ministries’ data dissemination

Ministry Dissemination

The Ministry of Public Security

household registration data

The Ministry of Civil Affairs

marriages and deaths

The Ministry of Health

maternal and child health

cause of death

The Ministry of Education

education statistics

5. Comparing and evaluating the quality of vital statistics

Three main resources obtaining the major population data:– survey conducted by National Statistical

Bureau– census conducted by National Statistical

Bureau – administrative records mainly refers to

household registration collected by the Ministry of Public Security

Index Census Survey Household Registration

Specifications Resident household registration

Coverage

Full 1% or 1‰Data on

registered permanent

residence above county level

usual population

Indicatorstotal population, CBR, CDR, Urban population proportion,

etc.

total populationCBR, CDR, etc.

Remarks undercount 0.12% (2010)

not getting small area

result

Uncoverage people without regi

stration

Comparing data sources

The same standard in survey and census

Three types of resident peoples from censuses and surveys with the same standard:– residing in the township, towns and street

communities with permanent household registration there

– residing in the township, towns and street communities, with permanent household registration elsewhere, away from that place for more than 6 months

– residing in the township, towns and street communities, with place of permanent household registration unsettled

The Relationship among Census, Survey and Project

The Census

The Sample Survey

Adjust the historical data

Estimation and Communiqué

The Project

the Base

Modify

The publication of the Ministry of Public Security

Publish yearbook every year

– releasing about data on the total population including provincial and small area population

– Using Permanent Household Registration statistical method which is different definitions and data collection methods from survey and census

The Difference of total population

Different resources, different total population data:

– For example in 2008, the total population is 1328.02 million people by NBS, and the household registration population is 1321.31 million people. The main reason of difference is that some people do not have household registration

Estimating and Adjusting the Survey data

According to the census and administrative records, major annual population data by nation and province are estimated from surveyAfter the National Population Census, a few years survey data before censuses will be estimated and analyzed, and decided whether data should be adjustedAdministrative records are effective complement and reference during estimating data in survey

The Application of Administrative Records

The composition of population can be checked and estimated by the education data, especially the birth dataThe data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs is the main source of annual marriages and divorcesThe data from the Ministry of Health is the main resource of cause of death

Conclusion

Population censuses and sample surveys are the main sources of the vital statistics in ChinaAdministrative records are effective complement and reference of the censuses and surveys How administrative records and sample survey can be combined to generate small area population estimates is now being investigated

Database system

National basic repository of the population information, based on data from relevant agencies such as

– Public Security, Family Planning, Human Resources and Social Security, Housing and Urban-rural, Education, Transportation, Industry and Commerce, Taxation, and financial information system resources