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1Photo by David Ausberger
The Utility of the Future:Transformative Technology
IAMU Energy 2013 ConferenceHoliday Inn Airport - Conference Center
October 2, 2013Thomas A. Wind, PE
Wind Utility Consulting, PCJamaica, Iowa
Photo by David Ausberger
Topics I Will Cover: Wind Energy (It is here to stay) Solar Power (Just getting warmed up) LENR Technology (The game changer)
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Photo by David Ausberger
Wind Energy (It is here to stay!)
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3,200 Large Wind Turbines in Iowa Totaling 5,133 MW Mean Annual Wind Speed in Meters per Second at an 80-Meter Height
Map produced by Wind Utility Consulting, PC using 200-meter resolution mean annual wind speed data developed by AWS True Power for the Iowa Energy Center in 2010. There are approximately 3,200 large wind turbines plotted on the map. Single large turbines have larger black dots so they can more easily be seen on the map. Wind Utility Consulting, PC March 2013
Andrew T. Coil
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385 Small Wind turbines in Iowa (1 – 100 kW)
Individual wind turbine information provided by Paul Rekow and Bill Haman. Wind speeds are in meters per second at 80 meters height.
Map produced Andrew T. Coil, Wind Utility Consulting, PC in December 2012
Size in KW
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Wind Power Continues To Grow
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Concentrating PV Using Fresnel Lenses
Fixed Tilt PV
2012 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger, LBNL for DOE Wind and Water Power Program
Wind Power Costs per kW Decline Again in 2012
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Concentrating PV Using Fresnel Lenses
Fixed Tilt PV
2012 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger, LBNL for DOE Wind and Water Power Program
New Wind Projects are Typically Built in Less Windy Areas
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Capacity Factors Vary by Region but They Have Not Declined for New Projects Because Longer Blades Are Being Used
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Wind PPA Prices Have Been Declining Since 2009
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Wind Power Additions Have Generally Been on the Pathto Reach 20% of US Energy Needs by 2030
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Photo by David Ausberger
Solar Power (Just Getting Warmed Up!)
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Solar Power – Just Getting Warmed Up!
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Concentrating PV Using Fresnel Lenses
Solar Power Towerwith 5 MW Steam
Turbine
Fixed Tilt PV
Parabolic Trough Producing 750 ° Steam
Solar Power Tower
Solar Photovoltaic Costs Continue to Decline
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Falling Module Prices Have Driven PV System Costs Down
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US PV System Costs are Higher than in Some Countries
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PV Installed Costs in Germany are Less than Half of US Costs
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Utility Scale Project PPA Prices Have Fallen Dramatically
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Factors Affecting the Future Costs of Solar PV• Panel module efficiencies will continue to increase
– Today panel efficiency typically ranges from 12‐20% with most between 14 to 16% efficient.
– Best efficiency you can buy today is 32% for a concentrating panel
• Soft costs for smaller systems will come down as regulations, permitting, and interconnection become easier (Germany)
• As the PV industry gets bigger the volume will increase the costs will come down
• Federal Subsidy is a 30% investment tax credit through 2016 and 50% bonus depreciation through 2013
• Iowa provides a 15% investment tax credit, capped at $3,000 for residential and $15,000 for businesses through 2016
• Some states require utilities to purchase certain amounts of solar power which affects the market price of solar power
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45%
Future Solar PV Deployment
• MidAmerican Solar’s primary projects include the MW Topaz Solar Farms near San Luis Obispo, CA, the 290 MW Agua Caliente project near Yuma AZ, and the 579‐megawatt Solar Star Projects located near Los Angeles. Solar Star uses 3,200 acres and at 9,000,000 panels it is the world’s largest.
• Bloomberg predicts 36,700 MW of solar PV globally this year.• The amount of solar PV globally is rising rapidly
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2013
Iowa’s Largest PV Array• 280 kW Installed by Decorah
College in 2012• Designed to supply all of the
electricity needs of Baker Village, a student housing complex, or 375,000 kWh. This includes geothermal heating and cooling.
• Panels use 2 acres of land and are mounted at a 30° angle
• 1250 panels each rated at 225 kWDC or 281 kWDC
• Peak output to date was 319 kWAC in April
• Average capacity factor for 11+ months is 15.4%
• Cost was $1.2 million22
Baker Village
PV Array
Grinnell College
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Hawaii Will be the Proving Ground for High Penetration of Renewable Energy
• Accommodating renewables is a challenge for isolated grids in Hawaii since they have no interconnections to other islands.
• Maui has 1,737 MW of firm generation and 111 MW of wind and solar generation
• Customers are rapidly adding solar PV to their homes to reduce their power bills
• A comprehensive study concluded that they could accommodate additional solar and wind power totaling 550 to 750 MW to achieve 20% of their energy from intermittent renewables with modest changes in their existing power plants and some additional operating reserves.
• Battery energy storage systems were not required, but they would reduce curtailments of wind and solar power.
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Photo by David Ausberger
LENR Technology (The game changer!)
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Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR)
• I attended the 18th International Conference on Cold Fusion at the University of Missouri in Columbia in July
• Technical conference on the study and use of LENR• Cold Fusion was first publicly announced in 1989 at Utah State
University by two internationally acclaimed electro‐chemist researchers, Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons.
• They produced about 3 watts more energy than they consumed in their electrolytic cells containing palladium electrodes and heavy water. Fusion on a table top! (Tee Shirt)
• Created excitement around the world. However, other scientists around the world had a very difficult time reproducing the results and there was no nuclear theory to explain the results.
• As a result, they were quickly discredited and cold fusion was labeled junk science.
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Continued Research Around the World• After cold fusion science was rejected by main stream
scientists, a few researchers continued to study this. Funding was very limited.
• The anomalous heat effect was replicated many times over the years in several countries using electro‐chemical cells, although no one could fully explain the theory.
• The basic concept is that hydrogen atoms are absorbed into the metal lattice structure and under the right conditions the hydrogen fuses into helium at relatively low temperatures and a lot of energy is released.
• Two Italian researchers (Sergio Focardi and Andrea Rossi) focused on increasing the power level and using less expensive metals. They used nickel and hydrogen gas.– Palladium and gold both cost about $1,400 per ounce– Nickel costs about 50¢ per ounce– Hydrogen gas costs about 10 ¢ per ounce
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Nickel – Hydrogen LENR Reactor• Rossi (Leonardo Corp.) has successfully produced a small reactor
that puts out 20 kW of heat. It uses a special powdered nickel, a catalyst, and hydrogen gas.
• The reactor vessel is made from steel and contains the nickel powder and electric resistance heaters that are used to initiate and control the reaction. Heat is carried away with water pipes.
• Key features of this reactor:– Negligible radiation (unlike hot fusion)– No radioactive byproducts (unlike hot fusion)– No combustion of fuel– Fail safe operation – if it gets too hot, the nickel
melts and the reaction stops– Can use electricity or natural gas for starting and
controlling the reactor– Can potentially produce 1,100 ° F steam– Called the E‐Cat
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E‐Cat Reactors
• Rossi has partnered with a large US company to fully develop and sell these E‐Cat products.
• They have delivered four 1 MW (thermal heat) systems for testing and evaluation. The US military purchased the first one.
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Thermal Output Power 1 MWElectrical Input Power Peak 200 kWElectrical input Power Average 167 kWCOP 6Power Ranges 20 kW-1 MWModules 52Power per Module 20kWWater Pump Pressure 4 BarWater Pump Capacity 1500 kg/hrWater Pump Ranges 30-1500 kg/hrWater Input Temperature 4-85 CWater Output Temperature 85-120 CControl Box Brand National InstrumentsControlling Software Leonardo Corp.Operation and MaintenanceCost $0.5/MWhrFuel Cost $0.1/MWhrRecharge Cost $10/moduleRecharge Frequency 2/yearWarranty 2 yearsEstimated Lifespan 20 yearsPrice $2MTotal Cost (20 years operation) $2/MWhDimension 2.4x2.6x6m
Specifications for 1 MW Low Temperature E‐Cat Reactor
Home‐sized E‐Cat
• A smaller 5 kW thermal E‐Cat has been developed for distributed applications.
• It uses up to 0.9 kW of electricity to startup and much less after it stabilizes. It uses 50 grams of nickel powder and one gram of hydrogen to run for 6 months continuously, then it must be checked and refueled. The fuel cost is insignificant.
• The unit must first go through the UL approval process before being sold.
There are Several Companies Developing the Technology and Products
• Leonardo Corp. ‐ Andrea Rossi – E‐Cat (several versions)
• Defkalion – Hyperion OEM
• Brillouin – Godes ‐ Hot Tube Boiler
• LENUCO – Miley, University of Illinois
• Black Light Power –Mills ‐ Catalyst Induced Hydrino Transition
• Nichenergy (Piantelli) – Ni‐H technologyDefkalion PrototypeBrillouin Prototype
LENUCO
Potential LENR Applications
The cost of fuel should be less than 25¢ per MMBTU• Space heating (I am on a waiting list)• Adsorption chilling• Heat source for desalination plants• Heat source for Stirling engines• Heat source for thermoelectric generators• Steam source to replace fossil fueled boilers in electric power
plants• Power source for ships and trains• Power source for automobiles (see lenr‐cars.com, 15,000
miles per refueling?)• Power source for airplanes (Boeing).
This will be a game changer!