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The Transition to Electric Bikes in China
BAQ 2006, Dec 14Jonathan Weinert, Inst. of Transp. Studies UC-Davis
Ma Zedan, Tsinghua University
Christopher Cherry, UC-Berkeley
History and Key Factors for Rapid Growth
Outline
1. E-bike Background2. History3. Key Factors
• Technical• Economic• Political• Other
4. Conclusions
Motivation:
1. Successful & FAST adoption of a new transportation technology due to air quality concerns
2. Apply lessons to: 1. Other technologies2. Other countries
Methodology
– Existing Literature– Interviews:
• 23 e-bike companies, 4 factory visits, 5 dealers, 12 users, 1 gov’t rep.
– Surveys• 1,000 e-bike users in Shanghai, Kunming, and
Shijiazhuang (Weinert, Ma, Yang, Cherry 2006, Cherry and Cervero, 2006)
E Bike Background
Insert pix
E-bike Background
• Definition: 2-wheeled vehicle (2WV) propelled by electricity and (sometimes) human power.
Bicycle-style: Scooter Style:
Voltage Power Range Efficiency
36-48 V 240-350 W 30-70 km 1.2-1.5 kWh/100km
E-bike Growth in China
Jamerson, F. and Benjamin, E., 2004 Electric Bicycle World Report, 7th Edition with 2005 update, 2005
Figure 2: Production of E-Bicycles and Cars for the Domestic Market in China
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Pro
du
cti
on
(u
nit
)
.
E-bikes
All Autos
Personal Cars
E-bike Pros and Cons
Pros Cons“0” tail-pipe emissions
75% Coal electricity production1
Energy efficient, charged during off-peak
Lead-emissions from production and recycling
Cheap Safety (quiet, fast, inadequate brakes)
1. Cherry, Weinert, Ma (2006)
History
1. Phase 1: (1980s)• Technology sub-par
2. Phase 2: (early 90s)• Technology better, but not as good as
incumbent
3. Phase 3: (late 90s-present• Technology “competitive” with incumbent• Incumbent crippled by regulation (The
Harding Effect)• Other factors
E-bike Industry
1998: 10 companies
2005: 498 registered (1,000-5,000 unofficial)
Why?: mature, simple technology, weak IP enforcement
Size: 10- 200,000 bikes/year Profit margin: 6%
The Key Factors
Key Factor 1: Technology
Batteries Type: • Valve-regulated lead-acid
– Replaced liquid electrolyte batteries
Motor Type: • Brushless motors
– Longer life, lower maintenance, more power
How has e-bike technology improved?
1997-1998 2006
Manufacturer guaranteed battery lifetime (months)
3 12
Anticipated battery life (months) 7-8 18-24
Battery energy density (Wh/kg) 30 40
Motor efficiency 50% (1995) 85%
E-bike price (USD) ~$300 $125-375
Weinert, Ma, Cherry (2006)
Key Factor 2: Economics
1. Economics
Compact car (gasoline)
Annual Cost (USD/yr)
69 92 160 290 290 770
Fuel economy 0.021 kWh/km
0.015 kWh/km
0.036 L/km
0.04 L/km
0.08 L/km
FuelPrice
($/unit)0.083 /kWh
0.25/trip 0.41/L 0.56/L 0.56/L
Fuel Economy 15Wh/km 29 km/l 27 km/l 12.5km/l
Km / yr 2,600 3,000 4,000 4,300 4,300 10,000
Compact car
Economic/Market Factors
• 2002-06: Gasoline prices rose by 45%(Shanghai)
China National Statistics Report (2005)
1997 2004 % change
Annual Disposable Income of Urban Households / capita (USD)
645 1,178 82%
% of household expenditures on Transportation and Communications
5.2% 11.8% 127%
Key Factor 3: Policy Factors
1. Gasoline scooters bans: – 1994 Tianijn
– 1996 Shanghai
– 1998 Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Suzhou
2. National E-bike standards (‘99)– The “pedal” loophole: create uniform specs for BSEB
and SSEB– Other loopholes (speed, weight, power)
3. Nat’l Road Transportation Safety Law (‘04)– Gave e-bikers right to use bike lane– Gave e-bike industry more confidence
E-bikes: a Tale of Two Cities
• Beijing: – 2002, issued e-bike ban effective 06– 2006, amidst strong oppostion, reversed
decisions– Strictly enforces standards, SSEBs < 5%
• Shanghai– Loosely enforced standards, SSEBs >70%– Banned gasoline scooters 1998
E-bikes growth compared to other 2WVs (Shanghai)
1. Kang, 2004
0
100
200
300
400
500
2002 2003 2004
Moto
rize
d t
wo-w
heele
rs (
1,0
00
s)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Bic
ylc
es
(1,0
00
s)
E-bikesGasoline scooterLPG scootersBikes
How have regional policy differences affected e-bike sales?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Chengdu Shanghai Shijiazhuang Beijing
% m
ode s
hare
% e-bike
% bike
% MotorScooter
Gov’t Attitude
Pro e-bike Pro e-bike & LPG scooter
Neutral Anti e-bike
Factor X ? ?
Factor Y ? ?
4. Other Factors
• Liberalization of the housing market (started in mid-1990s)
• SARS: early 2003
• Abnormally high summer heat wave (2003)– Why did sales spike
Conclusions
• Technology – Battery life, energy density, motor efficiency
• Macro-economics– Incomes rose, share spent commuting rose
• Industry: – Low barriers to entry, more entrants, falling costs
• National and Local policies– Product standards --> loopholes (SSEB)– Road space
So What Was It?…
– The technology– The market – Or the policy
• Or the timely confluence of all three???
Acknowledgements
Research Supported by: • ITS-Davis (Dr. Joan Ogden & Dan Sperling)• Hong Kong Fok Ying Tung (Huo Ying Dong)
Education Foundation, Project No. 94027• ITS-Berkeley Center for Future Urban
Transport-A Volvo Center of Excellence
• Presentation available at www.jonathanweinert.com/presentations