The Traders Forum Tuesday 26 th February 2013 Presenters: Shaun
van den Berg Head of Client Education Head of Client Education
Travis Robson Trading & Relationship Manager Trading &
Relationship Manager Slide 2 Introduction CFD versus Equities
Upcoming Webinars The Stockbroker (Technical analysis) Trade Ideas
Technical Trading Technical Market Overview The Investor
(Fundamental analysis) Long-term Investment Opportunities Open the
Floor Summary & ConclusionAgenda Slide 3 CFD versus Equities
CFD Trade Equity Trade Details Instrument Exposure Brokerage Cost
STT & STRATE Price (Cents) Initial Margin 15% % of Exposure
Total Costs 14% VAT 500 ABC shares 6000c 6000c R30 000 None R120.00
R85.92 R37.45 R16.80 R136.80 R390.87 0.46% 1.30% R4 500 R5 250
Initial Margin 17.5% R30 000 R267.50 Slide 4 Learn to trade Equity
Derivatives Webinar Date: Wednesday, 13 March 2013 / Time: 13:00
14:00 Topics Covered: Platform overview for CFD & SSF Technical
Trading - resistance / trend lines / chart patterns Technical
Market Overview Trading plan - Stop loss / take profits / buying
levels Psychology of trading & Trading ideas Advanced Technical
Analysis (Candlesticks) Date: Wednesday, 20 March 2013 / Time:
13:00 14:00 Topics Covered: Introduction to Candles Major
candlestick signals Bullish and bearish patterns Choosing support
and resistance levels Trade ideas using candlesticks with other TA
tools Upcoming Webinars **Please note limited to 100 people Slide 5
The Stockbroker Technical & Trade Ideas Slide 6 The Stockbroker
Slide 7 Professional traders focus on limiting risk and protecting
capital. Amateur traders focus on how much money they can make on
each trade. Professionals always take money away from amateurs.
Stay relaxed. Place trade and set stop loss. If you get stopped
out, who really cares? You are doing your job. You are actively
protecting your capital. Professional traders actively take small
losses. Amateurs resort to hope and sometimes prayer to save their
trade. Jacques Magliolo: Become your own Stockbroker Quote: Trading
Wisdom Slide 8 Woolies (WHL) PPC (PPC) Vodacom (VOD) Steinhoff
(SHF) New Gold (GLD) Sasol (SOL) Trade Ideas Slide 9 Woolies (WHL)
16.1.2013 Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Buy / Long Entry: 6470c
Take Profit: 7200c Stop loss: 6190c (5950c) Slide 10 Woolies (WHL)
11.2.2013 Slide 11 Woolies (WHL) 26.2.2013 Direction: Buy / Long
Entry: 6470c Take Profit: 68.85c Return: 6.45% Slide 12 PPC (PPC)
26.2.2013 Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Buy / Long Entry: 3385c
Take Profit: 3650c Stop loss: 3301c Slide 13 PPC (PPC) 26.2.2013
Breakout? Slide 14 Vodacom (VOD) 22.2.2013 Instrument: CFD / SSF
Direction: Buy / Long Entry: 11825c Take Profit: 12500c Stop loss:
11500c Slide 15 Vodacom (VOD) 26.2.2013 Breakout? Slide 16
Steinhoff (SHF) 26.2.2013 Daily Slide 17 Newgold (GLD) 26.2.2013
Slide 18 Sasol (SOL) 25.2.2013 Slide 19 Slide 20 Technical Analysis
Support & Resistance / Trend Lines / Chart Patterns Slide 21
Resistance Support Resistance Support Resistance Support &
Resistance levels highlight possible turning points Support
Resistance Support Support & Resistance Slide 22 Support Trend
Line Resistance Trend Line Support Trend Line Resistance Trend Line
As long as the price stays above/ below the Support or Resistance
lines, the trend is either bullish or bearish Trend Lines Slide 23
Double Top Double Bottom Head & Shoulders (Top) Inverse Head
& Shoulders Falling Wedge Rising Wedge Broadening Formation
Reversal Patterns Slide 24 Double Top Pattern Mr Price (MPC) Double
Top Pattern? Double top: Refers to the rise of a stock's price, a
drop, and then a rise back to the same level as the original rise
all occurring after a significant rally. Bearish Slide 25 Double
Bottom Pattern Impala (IMP) Slide 26 Rising Wedge The Foschini
Group (TFG) Rising Wedge? Slide 27 Head & Shoulders Barloworld
(BAW) 8.2.2013 H&S? Head & Shoulders price target: the
minimum target is the height of the pattern to the neckline
projected downwards from the breakdown point. Slide 28 Head &
Shoulders Barloworld (BAW) 12.2.2013 H&S? Slide 29 Double
Bottom or H&S? Woollies (WHL) 8.2.2013 Double Bottom? Inverse
Head & Shoulders? Slide 30 1 5 2 3 4 Rectangle Formation
Symmetrical Triangle Flat Top or Ascending Triangle Flat Bottom or
Descending Triangle Continuation Patterns Slide 31 Symmetrical
Triangle - (Stanbank) (SBK) Slide 32 Rectangle Formation (Massmart)
(MSM) Slide 33 Flat Tops (Aspen) (APN) Slide 34 Technical Market
Overview Slide 35 S & P 500 Index Bullish Support Resistance
Rising Wedge? Slide 36 Brent Oil Bullish Resistance Support
Resistance Support Slide 37 Brent Oil. Sasol 25.2.2013 Resistance
Support Slide 38 Gold $ Bearish Resistance Support Resistance
Resistance Support Channel Slide 39 Platinum $ Bullish Support
Resistance Support / Resistance Support Slide 40 JSE Platinum
Mining Index Bearish Bearish Support / Resistance Support /
Resistance Resistance / Support Slide 41 Rand $ Resistance Channel
Support ZAR Weakness ZAR Weakness Resistance Support Slide 42 JSE
Top 40 Index Bullish Bullish Resistance Resistance Support Support
Slide 43 JSE Food Index Bullish Bullish Support Resistance
Resistance Channel Slide 44 S&P 500 Index Bullish Becoming
Overbought Brent Crude Oil Bullish Gold $ Bearish / Down channel
Platinum $ Bullish Rand $ Bearish / Up channel Summary: Technical
Overview JSE Top 40 Index Bullish Oversold? JSE Platinum Bearish
Oversold Testing support JSE Food Bullish Up channel Slide 45
Fundamentals & Long-term Share picks The Investor Slide 46
Bi-monthly newsletter One Share Spot Long-term equity investor
Positives & Negatives Technical View Recommendation Equity
Account 3-year view Slide 47 Methodology Step 1: Click Research
Step 2: Click Search PEG ratio (PE%) is less than or equal to 85%
Quality rating (%) is greater than 70% Slide 48 Methodology Slide
49 IFR recommendations 2012 - 33% 2012 - 20% 2012 - ALSI 40 22%
Slide 50 IFR recommendations Slide 51 Sasol (SOL) Bowcalf (BCF)
Sunint (SUI) Hudaco (HDC) The Investor - Share Picks Email
[email protected] to be added to The Investor mailing
[email protected] Open DateStockEntry25.2.2013P&L
%P&L % 20121206SOL355003914610.27% 20130117BCF7607853.29%
20130130SUI9870102904.26% 20130214HDC970099902.99% Slide 52 Sasol
(SOL) Slide 53 Slide 54 We like Sasol because: Its 100% Quality
Rating, which is a combined measure of a number of financial ratios
of a company. PSG Online considers a company with a quality rating
above 70% as a good quality company. The company has a strong cash
flow. It has excellent operating margins of over 23.3%. It has
return on equity (ROE) is 23%. The group has managed to contain
costs and successfully deleveraged its balance sheet, giving it
ample room for future growth. It is trading at 1.7 times its NAV.
The share price is underpinned by an attractive dividend yield of
4.7%.Positives Slide 55 We are concerned about: Sasols
vulnerability to a number of external factors beyond managements
control, such as oil price and exchange rate movements. The
possible impairment of its share in the Arya Sasol Polymer plant,
which it would have to divest of, given the continued uncertainty
over sanctions relating to Irans nuclear fuel program and the
devaluation of the countrys currency. Exposure to Europe currently
experiencing weaker demand, which would hit Sasols profitability.
The level of gearing is likely to return to the groups targeted
range of 20% to 40% in the medium term as its large capital
intensive growth program and gas acquisition strategy gains
momentum. Negatives Slide 56 Sasol (SOL) (Weekly) Slide 57 Bowcalf
(BCF) Slide 58 Slide 59 Positives We like Bowcalf because: A weaker
exchange rate will provide more relief from imports. We expect an
improved contribution from the Gauteng bottling plant in the
medium-term. Historically, it has strong cash generation. Bowcalf
has an ungeared balance sheet. Operating margins could possibly
return back to the long-term average, which will affect earnings
positively. It has return on equity (ROE) has upside potential from
the current 14.0% The share offers value as it is trading at a
historic P/E ratio of 10.7 times. The share is trading at a 40%
premium of its NAV of 535cps. It offers an attractive dividend
yield of 4.8% assisted by its high dividend pay-out ratio. Slide 60
We are concerned about: The possibility of a lower than anticipated
uptake at the Gauteng bottling plant. Bowcalfs vulnerability to
repeated exposure to a number of external factors, including the
supply of CO 2 to their filling operations and industry- wide
labour disruptions within the plastics divisions. Continued
above-inflation growth in operating costs (i.e. electricity and
labour costs)Negatives Slide 61 Bowcalf (BCF) (Weekly) Slide 62
Sunint (SUI) Slide 63 Slide 64 We like Sunint because: It has an
attractive portfolio of operations spread across all the economic
centres in South Africa. The group is establishing a foothold in
other emerging countries such as Chile. Sunint boasts a solid track
record with good margins and exceptionally high return on equity
(ROE%). It has strong cash generation. Sunint is considered a
defensive share due to its nature of its operations. The share is
trading on a rolling P/E ratio of 15.5 times, which we consider as
fair value. Moat There are limited casino licenses. Sun
International recently announced that it is considering a new
casino licence in Panama.Positives Slide 65 We are concerned about:
The exclusivity of the Western Cape licence (Grandwest) as there is
speculation that one of the other Western Cape licences may
relocate to the Cape Town metropole. The over-capacity in the hotel
industry as it is likely to result in a lack of pricing power, and
low occupancy rates. The high level of gearing, its low interest
cover, as well as the regulatory environment.Negatives Slide 66
Sunnit (SUI) (Weekly) Slide 67 Hudaco (HDC) Slide 68 We like Hudaco
because: It delivered a solid set of results despite the difficult
trading environment with illegal strikes in the mining sector. It
is a good quality company, trading on a quality rating of 75%. It
boasts a consistently high ROE, healthy operating margins, as well
as a strong balance sheet. The share does not seem expensive as it
trading on a rolling Price / Earnings (PE) ratio of 8.9 times and
at 1.9 times its Net Asset Value (NAV). The share is also
underpinned by a solid dividend yield of 4.9%.Positives Slide 69 We
are concerned about: Hudacos exposure to markets that rely on
consumer spending as consumer spending is slowing down. The group
is exposed to exchange rate volatility, which affects its
operations and its customers. The South African Revenue Service
(SARS) is disputing Hudacos leveraged BEE structure, as well as
disallowing STC credits, claiming that it was a scheme to avoid
paying tax. The contested amount is approximately R1.6-billion, of
which R987-million relate to penalties. The share price has
discounted the SARS tax assessment by pulling back
sharply.Negatives Slide 70 Hudaco (HDC) 8.2.2013 Slide 71 Open the
Floor Slide 72 Information session Open a trading account Add more
funding Trade and invest Subscribe to tools The Stockbroker (CFD
& SSF traders) The Investor (Long-term Equity investors) Look
out for Upcoming Webinars (SSF/ CFD & TA) Good Luck & Happy
Trading! Summary: The Traders Forum Slide 73 Contact us Travis
Robson [email protected] (011) 996 5204 Shaun van den
Berg [email protected] (011) 996 5254 Slide 74 This
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constitute our judgement as of the date of this material and are
subject to change without notice. Past performance is not
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