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THE TESLA MODEL 3: WHY ELECTRIC CARS ARE THE FUTUREFred Wohlers (fxw2@pitt.edu)

INTRODUCTION

In 2015, Elon Musk stated that Tesla's missionwas a zero-emission power generation [l]. Two yearslater, that goal may be coming sooner than Musk

market. For the first time in the history ofelectric ve Lot only was one made that wasa le, it was a legitimate option to the middle-class consun€ July's release of the Tesla Model 3marked a huge stepping stone towards that future, anda society that depends solely on electric vehicles isonly getting closer. The Tesla Model 3 is only anotherpiece of evidence that the electric car market is here tostay. Although these vehicles are mostly electricalengineering, as a mechanical engineer, I would love toparticipate help in the development of an emissionfree or electric vehicle, and being able to contribute notonly towards the car, but also the betterment of societyas a whole, is the exact reason I want to become anengineer.

WHAT ARE ELECTRIC VEHICLES?

Electric vehicles are defined as vehicles that usean electric motor instead of a gas motor. However,there are several different types of electric vehicles. APlu -In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) is an electricvehicle er• the vehicle is charged by plugging it into the electric grid [2]. However, this type of electricvehicle also has a gas motor because the electric motordoes not have a satisfactory range, hence the name"hybrid" [2]. A Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) is a fullon electric vehicle, as it runs solely on electricity andbatteries to power the vehicle [2]. The Tesla Model 3 isa BEV. Lastly, a Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) isalso another purely electric vehicle, it useselectricity to combine both oxygen and hydrogenstored in tanks in the car 2]. The rapid growth andexpansion of the electric ar market only show thedemand and overall necessi for a switch to an electriccar based society.

purpose?University of Pittsburgh, Swanson School of Engineering10.31.2017

THE ADVANTAGES OF AN ELECTRICCAR SOCIETY

In 2015, the Environmental Protection Agency(EPA) concluded that over a quarter of the annual USgreenhouse gas emissions, about 27%, came from thetransportation industry, while specifically 60% ofemissions from the transportation industry came fromlight duty vehicles [3]. Greenhouse gas emissions,specifically C02 emissions, have drastically increasedin the United States over the past few decades (doubledfrom five billion tons in the 1980s to almost 10 billionin 2014) [4]. With global warming becoming a seriousconcern to almost every industrialized nation, firststeps such as converting to an electric car dependentsociety are crucial in reducing the US's carbonfootprint and stopping climate change.

Transforming every gas based vehicle on the roadto electric based would have a huge impact on thecarbon emissions of the US. The National RenewableEnergy Laboratory (NREL) studied the impact of vSZconverting all cars in the US to PHEVs in 2007, whenthe carbon emission in the US was 15 percen owerthan it currently is [5]. They concluded tha 1 every carin the US was switched to a PHEV, which uses acombination of gas and electricity, there would be anaverage of 42% less carbon emitted per mile driven [5].If BEVs or FCEVs were factored into the study, thepercentage would be even higher, as these types ofelectric vehicles don't depend on or use gasoline at all.As a mechanical engineer, I think that a legitimate andenjoyable career choice for myself would be helping tofurther reduce the carbon emission from thetransportation industry in general.

This leads to another major benefit of an allelectric car society: gasoline usage reduction. With theswitch to electric vehicles, it is obvious that lessgasoline, if any, would be used to power the vehicles.According to the NREL, assuming that 50% of cars onthe road in the US in 2050 would be PH Vs, therewould be at least a 25% reduction in •Ilions ofgasoline consumed per year, from 148 billion to 107billion [6]. ain, this number would be much higher if

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Fred Wohlers

all cars were electric or if BEVs or FCEVs wereincluded in the study.

WHY THE TESLA MODEL 3 IS THEFUTURE OF ELECTRIC CARS

The Tesla Model 3 accomplished something that ouldhave been impossible only a handful of years agUnlike its predecessors, which were consid e ighend cars and often cost wards of 100,00 $, heModel 3 starts at 35,00 a price that is in the range ofmost middle-class consumers [7]. The technologyinside the car, specifically the cheaper batteries, haveturned the Model 3 into the gold standard for electriccars an#ave defined the electric car market for yearsto come11The batteries in the Model 3, which arelithium-ion, have become significantly cheaper since2010, enabling the overall cost of the car to decrease bya remarkable amount. Since 2010, lithium-ion batterycosts per kilowatt-hour (kWh) have decreased bynearly fourfold, from around 10000According to McKinsey&Company, "Lower costs for

atte acks could otentiall base versions ofthe... Tesla Model 3 below $40,000 fter the $7,500federal tax subsidy is applie the Gigafactorybeing built in California, Tesla pl s on lowering the

$35 battery costs Since

even the

further, battery

for costs

per are kWh

the prices single

belowmost

s part of the Model 3, driving the cost of thebatteries to below 106for per kWh would havesignificant positive impacts on the marketability androle of the electric car in society According to CNNMoney, "The Model 3, just by itself, could easilydouble or even triple electric vehicle sales in the U.S. ifTesla can ramp up production" [10]. This car couldeasily be the forefront of electric car technology, and itcould set standards for generations to come. Being ableto work on a car of the future, or a car on the forefrontof technology, would be a dream come true for me.

THE MOMENTUM OF THE ELECTRICCAR MARKET

Although the demand and supply for the electric carhas heavily fluctuated in the last century, it isundebatable that it is currently experiencing aresurgence in its popularity. 24 hours after theannouncement of the Tesla Model 3, 18,000 pre-orders

had already been placed [11]. Between March 31,

2016, and December 31, 2016, more than 380,000 pre-

orders for the Tesla Model 3 were placed, which were

"the largest number of pre-orders for any car inhistory" [8]. The unprecedented number of pre-orders

for the Model 3 prove that not only are electric cars

b.

here to stay, they could soon become the do matingforce in the transportation industry.

Additionally, the range of electric vehi es hasalso played a role in the growing of the indust . Theranges for many electric vehicles has been steadilyincreasing annually, and although the Model 3 has beenout for less than a year, older Tesla cars have been outfor several years. The Model S, for example, had arange of208 miles in 2013 as compared to 249 miles in2017 [8]. Other electric vehicles, such as the NissanLeaf, also had increases in range. These increases"helped offset some of the range concerns thatconsumers cite as a major deterrent to EV purchases"[8]. With range becoming less and less of a concern,the market will inevitably shift away from traditionalgasoline vehicles and towards electric vehicles.

ARGUMENTS AGAINST ELECTRICCARS

Although electric cars would reduce our carbonfootprint and would help reduce gasoline consumption,there are legitimate concerns when it comes to electricvehicles. Perhaps the most convincing argumentagainst electric vehicles are charging times. Accordingto Mike Brown of Inverse, the Model 3 can takeanywhere between 5 and 10 hours to completelycharge, whereas gasoline based vehicles can be refilledin a matter of minutes [12]. Although this is not asignificant issue on its own, Louis Woodhill of Forbescited a snowstorm in January of this year in which "tenmile homeward commutes took four hours" [131. Hegoes on to say that "If there had been a million electriccars on American roads at the time, every single one ofthem... would have ended up stranded on the side of theroad, dead" [13]. Although many gas cars would havealso ended up dead, it is undeniable that refuelingwould be much quicker and more convenient if carswere gasoline, not electric. However, Tesla is lookinginto improving its charging rates, and its own chargingstations are able to fully charge a Tesla Model S in lessthan 2 hours [9]. Other arguments, such as the range,price, and horsepower of electric vehicles versus gasvehicles,.are slowly but surely becoming less and lesseffective.

CONCLUSION

Although most people have not seen the integration ofthe Model 3 into the transportation industry, as it startsshipping in Fall 2017, it has already had astoundingeffects on the electric car market. By breaking the pre-order record and being the cheapest and most costeffective electric vehicle on the streets [81, the TeslaModel 3 has proved that electric vehicles can directly

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Fred Wohlers

compete with traditional gasoline powered vehicles.Working for Tesla, although a probably impossibledream of mine, would be one of my top choices as acareer, and helping to make society greener, such as theModel 3 does, would accomplish all that I would wantin my career. If the Tesla Model 3 and future models ofelectric vehicles caught on to mainstream society, thebenefits would be unprecedented. These include the 42%reduction in carbon emission [5] and 25% reduction infuel consumption [6]. In turn, this would only help toprove that the electric vehicle market is not goinganywhere anytime soon. With a car like the Tesla 3 onthe market, the future only looks greener.

SOURCES

[l] M. Debord. "Elon Musk just revealed 'TeslaEnergy'". Business Insider. 5.01.2015. Accessed10.23.2017. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/here-comes-teslas-missing- iece-batte -announcement-2015-4[2] J. Goldman. "Comparing Electric Vehicles: Hybridvs. BEV vs. PHEV vs. FCEV". Union of ConcernedScientists. 2.12.2014. Accessed 10.23.2017.http://blog.ucsusa.org/iosh-goldman/comparing-electric-veh icles-hybrid-vs-bev-vs-phev-vs-fcev-411[3] "Fast Facts: U.S. Transportation Sector GreenhouseGas Emissions". 7.2017. Accessed 10.23.2017.https://nepis.epa.gov[Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P I OOS7

NK.pdf[4] T.A. Boden, G. Marland, and R.J. Andres. "AnnualGlobal Fossil-Fuel Carbon Emissions - Graphics".Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. 2017.Accessed 10.23.17. http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl. ov/trends/e is/ 10 2014.html[5] P. Lilienthanlf Brown. "Potential CarbonEmissions Reductions from Plug-in Hybrid ElectricVehicles by 2030". National Renewable EnergyLaboratory. 1.2007. Accessed 10.25.2017.http://denning.atmos.colostate.edu/readings/Solutions/ASES.2030.TacklingClimateChange.pdf[6] W. Short and P. Denholm. "A PreliminaryAssessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles onWind Energy Markets". National Renewable EnergyLaboratory. 4.2006. Accessed 10.25.2017.https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy060sti/39729.pdf[7] K. Fehrenbacher. "Why the Model 3 is Such a BigDeal to Tesla". Fortune. 3.30.2016. Accessed10.26.2017. http://fortune.com/2016/03/30/model-3-big-deal-tesla/[8] "Electrifying insights: How automakers can driveelectrified vehicle sales and profitability".McKinsey&Company. 1.2017. Accessed 10.28.2017https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/electrifying-insights-how-

automakers-can-drive-electrified-vehicle-sales-and-profitability[9] M. Brown. "Here's Why the Tesla Model 3 Price isSo (Relatively) Cheap". Inverse. 4.12.2017. Accessed10.28.2017. https://www.inverse.com/article/30244-why-is-the-tesla-model-3-so-cheap[10] P. Valdes-Dapena. "Why the Tesla Model 3 is areally big deal". CNN Money. 7.31.2017. Accessed10.28.2017.http ://money.cnn.com/2017/07/28/technology/tesla-model-3-matters/index.html[1 1] G. Ledford. "Powered by Purpose: What Tesla'sModel 3 Says About the Future of Sustainability"TriplePundit. 4.05.2016. Accessed 10.28.2017.http ://www.triplepundit.com/2016/04/tes la-model-3-sustainability/[12] M. Brown. "The Tesla Model 3 Will Need toImprove Its Charge Time, Fast". Inverse. 4.12.2017.Accessed 10.28.2017.https://www.inverse.com/article/30234-tesla-model-3-charge-time-range-estimate[13] L. Woodhill. "Electric Cars Are AnExtraordinarily Bad Idea". Forbes. 9.14.2011.Accessed 10.30.2017.https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2011 /09/14/electric-cars-are-an-extraordinarily-bad-idea/#22c8d0ff42af

ADDITIONAL SOURCES

F. Lambert. "Tesla Model 3 and Model Y couldrepresent half the global EV market within 3 years,says report". Electrek. 9.4.2017. Accessed 10.26.2017.https://electrek.co/2017/09/04/tesla-model-3 -model-y-global-ev-market-report/

ACKNOWLEDMENTS

I would like to thank Nordenberg Floor 6 forhelping me get through this paper and format mycitations correctly.

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