The State of SOLAR Power 2015 - Class Home Pages · THE STATE OF SOLAR POWER 2015 An overview of the present PV configurations, markets, and design ... 6 Solar Inverter Companies

THE STATE OF SOLAR POWER 2015An overview of the present PV configurations, markets, and design for PV inverters

Dimosthenis Katsis, Athena Energy [email protected]

OVERVIEW

A Tour of Solar and PV Products

Inverters and components of a solar PV system.

Market breakdown

PV

Inverters

Case study in power conversion.

What is in a PV inverter ?

Where is technology trending.

SiC

Micro Inverters

Energy Storage

Components PV Market Inverter Market Case Study Technology Trend Conclusions

SOLAR IN SEATTLE?

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

AC

En

erg

y

Month

Seattle Baltimore Austin Spokane

energy %change

Seattle: 971

Baltimore: 1229 26%

Austin: 1363 40%

Spokane: 1182 22%


COMPONENTS What it takes to make a solar

PV system


STANDARD PV PANELS


HIGH PERFORMANCE PV PANELS


ROOF-INTEGRATED SOLAR


CONCENTRATING PV: MORE POWER / LESS AREA


INEXPENSIVE CONCENTRATOR MIRRORS


TRADITIONAL FOCUSING LENSES


PLASTIC CONCENTRATORS


OFF-GRID ON-GRID

BASIC PV CLASSIFICATIONS


UTILITY INVERTERS


RESIDENTIAL STRING AND COMMERCIAL INVERTERS



PV GENERATION AND STORAGE

MICRO-INVERTERS


APsystems Seattle, WA


RACKING SYSTEMS FOR PV PANELS

LOW-COST TRACKERS


SIMPLE DC SOLAR LIGHT

Basic lighting and security systems

40 – 200W PV array

Charge controller (PWM or MPPT)

12 – 24V Battery

Integrated DAY/NIGHT load control

Weather-proof box


Portable Fold-Out Solar Panels

with a small AC power inverter

Self contained small backup power

Includes a small battery pack; heavy (about 120lbs)

BACKUP AND INTEGRATED PORTABLES


Surge Protection

Energy Monitoring

BALANCE OF SYSTEM (BOS)


PV LIGHTING FOR DEVELOPING ECONOMIES



PV LIGHTING FOR DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

THE PV MARKET Growth up to 2015 According to

IHS and GTM


PV INVERTER MARKET SHARE BY POWER LEVEL

Source: IHS


SOLAR PV GENERATION % OF TOTAL POWER


DISTRIBUTED PV

Defined as roof mounted home and commercial installations not part of a solar farm

Small and medium solar systems (<100kW)

30% of global installations

JAPAN will have largest share of this market (70%)

USA installations will be about 2.2GW in 2015

Growth opportunities

Continued strong growth in certain USA markets: CA, HI, CO, NY, NJ, MD, MA

Large potential in India but not in very-near future (gov regs, supply chain, permits)

Not much in China due to emphasis on large centralized inverters

Japan

Philippines


INVERTERS BY APPLICATION

UTILITY Central Inverters ( > 150 kW )

SMA, Power Electronics, Eaton, Parker-Hannafin, Solectria, Schneider

Grid-Tie String Inverters ( 3 < 66 kW )

Solectria, SolarEdge, GroWatt, Fronius

Micro – Inverters ( 170W – 1000W )

Enphase, APsystems

Off-Grid

Outback, Magnum, Schneider, SMA

Hybrid

Outback, Athena Energy


UTILITY SCALE SOLAR (LARGE INSTALLATIONS 20MW AND UP)

Line Transformer

480VAC to

13.8kV or higher

Central Inverter

1000 – 1500VDC Strings



Combiner

Combiner

Combiner

150kW -

2MW

Inverters

DC

DC


DISTRIBUTED STRING INVERTERS (2 MW)

Line Transformer

480VAC to

13.8kV or higher

1000VDC Strings

1000VDC Strings

1000VDC Strings

Combiner

Combiner

3 Inverter

3 Inverter

3 Inverter

30kW -

60kW

Inverters

DC

AC

Combiner

Switchgear

Combiner

DC

DC

AC


COMMERCIAL ROOFS (MEDIUM INSTALLATIONS 100 – 500KW)

208 / 240

480VAC Service

600 - 1000VDC Strings



Combiner

Combiner

Combiner

10kW - 30kW

Single or three

Inverters

DC

1 Inverter

1 Inverter

3 Inverter

AC Combiner

DIS-

CONNECT


SMALL COMMERCIAL INSTALLATIONS: 10 – 100KW

208 – 240 /

1-3 Service


Combiner

1-3 Inverter

10kW -

30kW

Inverters

DIS-

CONNECT

DC

AC


HOME INSTALLATIONS (LARGER – 10KW)

240VAC

600 VDC Strings

Combiner

1 Inverter5kW -

10kW

Inverters

DIS-

CONNECT

Rapid

shutoff

DC

AC


HOME INSTALLATIONS (SMALLER – 6 KW)

240VAC


Combiner

1 Inverter1kW -

6kW

Inverters

DIS-

CONNECT

Rapid

shutoff

AC – 240VAC

DC

DC


MICRO INVERTER INSTALLATIONS (UP TO 8KW)

1 - 240VAC

Combiner

Comms Gateway PLC

Powerline carrier

Micro-

Inverter

250W Individual

Inverters

(i.e. 4000W system)

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

AC – 240V

DC

DIS-

CONNECT


MICRO INVERTER INSTALLATIONS (COMMERCIAL 100KW)

3 - 208VAC –

480VAC

Communications PLC

Powerline carrier

Micro-

Inverter

250W Individual

Inverters

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

Micro-

Inverter

AC

DC

DIS-

CONNECT

AC


According to Navigant’s “Inverters for Renewable Energy Applications”:

• Renewable Energy Inverter Market: $19B by 2017

• Biggest growth area is solar PV

Yole Group forecast for inverter market >$60B in 2017

OVERALL INVERTER MARKET


WHAT IS THE BREAKDOWN IN INSTALLED UNITS?


EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN THE INVERTER MARKET▪ Global inverter shipments are set

to exceed 23.3 million units by 2014.

▪ A factor of 9 increase since 2010

▪ Revenue will rise to $8.9 billion in 2014, up from $5.3 billion in 2010.

▪ “Solar inverters are on track to become one of the world’s highest-volume ruggedized electronic systems,”

▪ IHS predicts 15 GW in Q4 of 2015– a new record for the industry

Top 5

Markets1. China

2. Japan

3. USA

4. UK

5. Germany

Reference:https://technology.ihs.com/388846/global-solar-inverter-market-set-to-expand-by-factor-of-nine-in-2014


CASE STUDY: GRID-TIE PV AND INTEGRATED STORAGE

A look at the emerging

technology for the next stage of

PV


MARKET OUTLOOK


USA Residential PV Penetration

Global PV inverter shipments are expected to reach 50.6 GW in 2015 with a market size of $7.3 billionA factor of 9 increase since 2010global market to grow another 9 percent in 2016

“IPOs, new technologies, and storage integration are all reasons to be excited about the global PV inverter market in 2015.” 6 Solar Inverter Companies to Watch in 2015: Scott Moskowitz March 26, 2015

Enphase CEO “ Residential energy storage will be worth billions within 5 to 10 years”

$300M Market in Japan alone under a new gov. subsidy setup in 2015

PV AND STORAGE GROWTH OUTLOOK


LARGE / EXPANDABLE SOLUTIONS


INTEGRATED / MODULAR AND SMALL SOLUTIONS


PERFORMANCE EXPECTATIONS

High peak power > 4kW for 5 seconds (some distortion allowed)

Starting two refrigerators, sump pump + fridge, larger hand-tools

High/Moderate power needs >2.5kW for 10 min. (distortion not allowed)

Microwave + coffee maker, toaster, fridge-running

Baseline power > 500W (clean power)

Lights, computers, fridge-running, TV, fan


RESIDENTIAL CONFIGURATION


RESIDENTIAL


INTERFACE


PV Converter

DC/DC

Battery converter

DC/DC

Utility Interface

DC/AC

DESIGN PHILOSOPHY


MPPT Battery Charger

Non-isolated DC/DC

Storage Battery

Isolated

Bridge

Buck-boost

AC Inverter

PV CONVERTER – BATTERY CHARGER


PV Converter

DC/DC

Battery

Inverter

DC/AC

Utility Interface

AC/AC

High voltage input

DC/DC

Low voltage output

Buck topology


PV Converter

DC/DC

Battery

Inverter

DC/AC

Utility Interface

AC/AC

PV CONVERTER - MPPT

BATTERY INTERMEDIATE LINK

PV Converter

DC/DC

Battery Converter

DC/DC

Utility Interface

AC/AC


High voltage input

DC/DC

higher voltage output

Full-bridge isolated

Boost topology

BATTERY INVERTER: AC SIDE


High voltage input

DC/AC

higher voltage output

Bridge topology

PV Converter

DC/DC

Battery converter

DC/DC

Utility Interface

DC/AC

TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Where the PV market is Going


PV AND INVERTER TRENDS

Strong US market growth for Distributed PV

ARC fault and integrated rapid disconnect for PV systems

UL 1741 with adjustable trip parameters (HI and CA)

1500VDC PV

Renewable generation and storage (distributed PV)

grid scale storage (utility-scale PV)

New batteries


BATTERIES


UTILITY SCALE PV


COMPONENTS FOR INVERTERS: SI AND SIC


CONCLUSIONS

SOLAR PANELS Components: silicon, glass, aluminum, almost gone from this year’s conference (Move away from domestic

manufacturing)

Complete modules: suffering from consolidation / large players getting larger / USA brands almost gone

CSP: reduction in interest in concentrating solar or applications

Racking: Always looking for a less expensive racking soln. Racking for places like greenfield sites, challenging terrain otherwise unstable for buildings

Trackers: Still strong after many years

INVERTERS New, low cost PV array string inverters. Focus on high efficiency and low cost. Ease of installation.

Three phase and higher-power commercial offerings in micro inverter landscape

Lower cost HD wave, power packet, and low-reactive component count inverters

BATTERIES Explosive growth in LFP battery providers and systems, integration of power electronics within battery

Continued steady lead acid sales, same companies. Some startups using NaCl / Mg battery chemistry


CONCLUSIONS

SOLAR THERMAL

Economics of solar thermal are rapidly diminishing as US market embraces natural gas

OFFGRID system providers

Continued market penetration is holding steady but with no new product offerings besides LFP battery tech

BALANCE of SYSTEM

Huge growth in external combiner boxes, Array disconnect, PV safety disconnect

Cable management, solar farm hardware, large inverter products

1500VDC class products

MW-class inverters, 100 , 250, 500 kW inverters

Multi-level and multi-megawatt inverters


CHALLENGES

A change to the utility and regulatory landscape in the USA

The loss (or reduction) of the ITC in 2016

Adjustments in building code to protect firefighters

Rule 21 for California

Rule 14 for Hawaii

Loss of net metering in a growing number of states

Energy Storage

The dominant grid-connected option for new solar installations in Europe

The emerging growth market for solar in the US


ALSO SOLAR

THANKS TO YOU

Dimosthenis Katsis, PhD.

Athena Energy Corp. Seattle, WA

Twitter: @dimoskatsis

FACEBOOK: athenaenergysolar / [email protected]

THE STATE OF SOLAR POWER 2015

Documents

The State of SOLAR Power 2015 - Class Home Pages · THE STATE OF SOLAR POWER 2015 An overview of the present PV configurations, markets, and design ... 6 Solar Inverter Companies