FOREST SECTOR FOREST SECTOR MITIGATION IN INDIA MITIGATION IN INDIA

Ravindranath, Sudha & Ravindranath, Sudha & SandhyaSandhya

Indian Institute of ScienceIndian Institute of Science

BangaloreBangalore

ObjectivesObjectives

i) To estimate the mitigation potential of i) To estimate the mitigation potential of forest sector in India under different forest sector in India under different scenariosscenarios Develop baseline & project scenarioDevelop baseline & project scenario Estimate additionality of carbon benefitEstimate additionality of carbon benefit

ii) To assess costs and benefitsii) To assess costs and benefits iii) To assess barriers and options to iii) To assess barriers and options to

mitigation activities mitigation activities

Steps In Assessing Forest Sector Mitigation Steps In Assessing Forest Sector Mitigation PotentialPotential

Develop baseline scenarioDevelop baseline scenario Identify & develop project scenarioIdentify & develop project scenario

Technical potential scenarioTechnical potential scenario Sustainable forestry scenario- Biomass demandSustainable forestry scenario- Biomass demand Commercial forestry scenario- Biomass demandCommercial forestry scenario- Biomass demand

Identify mitigation activities and areaIdentify mitigation activities and area- based on - based on Biomass demandsBiomass demands Area available, suitableArea available, suitable

Estimating C-stock changes using PROCOMAP modelEstimating C-stock changes using PROCOMAP model Under baseline scenarioUnder baseline scenario Under project scenarioUnder project scenario Incremental C-stock or C-benefitsIncremental C-stock or C-benefits

Estimating cost-effectiveness, investment costEstimating cost-effectiveness, investment cost Assessment of barriers to mitigation projects and optionsAssessment of barriers to mitigation projects and options

Land Use Pattern in IndiaLand Use Pattern in India

Fig 2: Area afforested in India (Source: MoEF, 1999)

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Area afforested annually Cummulative area afforested

Mitigation Potential Through a Sustainable Mitigation Potential Through a Sustainable Forest Management Approach for IndiaForest Management Approach for India

Potential ScenariosPotential Scenarios

Technical potential scenarioTechnical potential scenario Sustainable forestry scenarioSustainable forestry scenario Commercial forestry scenarioCommercial forestry scenario

Potential Mitigation ActivitiesPotential Mitigation Activities

Afforestation – short rotationAfforestation – short rotation Afforestation – long rotationAfforestation – long rotation Forest regeneration (reforestation)Forest regeneration (reforestation) Forest ProtectionForest Protection BioenergyBioenergy

Baseline ScenarioBaseline Scenario Current rate of forest loss projected to continueCurrent rate of forest loss projected to continue

1984 to 1994 = 400,000 ha1984 to 1994 = 400,000 ha 1995 to 1997 = 274,000 ha1995 to 1997 = 274,000 ha

Rates of afforestation projected to declineRates of afforestation projected to decline

Area under crops stabilized (at ~ 150 Mha)Area under crops stabilized (at ~ 150 Mha)

Current (10Current (10thth plan) rate of investment projected to plan) rate of investment projected to continuecontinue

Biomass demands are not systematically Biomass demands are not systematically addressed in afforestation programsaddressed in afforestation programs

Sustainable Forestry Scenario- Sustainable Forestry Scenario- STEPSSTEPS

1.1. Estimate fuelwood, industrial wood and sawn wood Estimate fuelwood, industrial wood and sawn wood demands for 2015demands for 2015

2.2. Assess land use pattern and surplus land available Assess land use pattern and surplus land available for forestry activitiesfor forestry activities

3.3. Identify forestry activities for meeting biomass Identify forestry activities for meeting biomass demands demands eg. Short-rotation plantation for ind.woodeg. Short-rotation plantation for ind.wood

4.4. Allocate forestry activities to compatible land Allocate forestry activities to compatible land categories; categories; SR-plantations for private landsSR-plantations for private lands

5.5. Meet current biomass demands (for 2000) from Meet current biomass demands (for 2000) from baseline activities; baseline activities; existing forests, plantations, farms existing forests, plantations, farms

6.6. Meet incremental (2015 Meet incremental (2015 minusminus 2000) biomass 2000) biomass demands from proposed forestry activitiesdemands from proposed forestry activities

Commercial Forestry (CF) Commercial Forestry (CF) ScenarioScenario

Government supported A&R and Protected Government supported A&R and Protected area on Reserve forest, Social forestry on area on Reserve forest, Social forestry on Community or Government lands Community or Government lands

Industrial wood, sawnwood and urban Industrial wood, sawnwood and urban fuelwood demand through commercial fuelwood demand through commercial approach in private landsapproach in private lands

Full incremental biomass demand rate Full incremental biomass demand rate projected for 2000-2015 period projected for 2000-2015 period through commercial forestry approachthrough commercial forestry approach

Method of Estimation of Carbon Benefits & Method of Estimation of Carbon Benefits & CostsCosts

COMAP model developed by F-7 (Tropical Forest -7) COMAP model developed by F-7 (Tropical Forest -7) Network coordinated by LBNLNetwork coordinated by LBNL

Inputs; Baseline & project scenarioInputs; Baseline & project scenario Land available, Area to be afforested-yearly, Soil C & Land available, Area to be afforested-yearly, Soil C &

Biomass stock & growth rate, Rotation period, Life of Biomass stock & growth rate, Rotation period, Life of product, investment cost, annual cost, monitoring cost, product, investment cost, annual cost, monitoring cost, value of products (timber, fuelwood, NTFPs)value of products (timber, fuelwood, NTFPs)

Outputs; Baseline and Mitigation scenarioOutputs; Baseline and Mitigation scenario Annual and cumulative carbon stock changes (tC/ha)Annual and cumulative carbon stock changes (tC/ha) Incremental carbon stockIncremental carbon stock Total C stock per haTotal C stock per ha Cost-Effectiveness; Cost-Effectiveness;

Investment cost; Rs/tC or Rs/haInvestment cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha Life cycle cost; Rs/tC or Rs/haLife cycle cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha Net present value of returns; Rs/tCNet present value of returns; Rs/tC

Biomass demand in India (Mt)Biomass demand in India (Mt)Biomass demandBiomass demand Incremental Incremental

demanddemand20002000 20152015

SawnwoodSawnwood 18.718.7 38.338.3 19.619.6

RoundwoodRoundwood 8.38.3 14.414.4 6.16.1

Panel ProductsPanel Products 4.24.2 14.414.4 10.210.2

Pulp and paperPulp and paper 10.410.4 28.728.7 18.318.3

FuelwoodFuelwood 199.5199.5 249.0249.0 49.549.5

Baseline ScenarioBaseline Scenario

Afforestation expected to decline from Afforestation expected to decline from 0.84 Mha to 0.74 Mha beyond 20000.84 Mha to 0.74 Mha beyond 2000

Forest loss/conversion rates expected to Forest loss/conversion rates expected to continue at current rates of 274,000 ha continue at current rates of 274,000 ha annuallyannually

Current demands (for 2000) expected to Current demands (for 2000) expected to be met from existing forests, plantations, be met from existing forests, plantations, farms, etc.farms, etc.

Annual area to be dedicated to produce biomassAnnual area to be dedicated to produce biomassArea Area

availableavailable

(Mha)(Mha)

Area to be Area to be dedicateddedicated

(Mha)(Mha)

Annual Annual area to be area to be

planted planted (ha)(ha)

Short RotationShort Rotation 38.2238.22 3.633.63 121,000121,000

FuelwoodFuelwood 38.2238.22 7.727.72 247,000247,000

Long RotationLong Rotation 14.214.2 6.666.66 222,000222,000

Forest Forest RegenerationRegeneration

11.1011.10 11.1011.10 370,000370,000

Forest ProtectionForest Protection 8.498.49 274,100274,100

Mitigation Potential and Cost of Mitigation Potential and Cost of Forestry Sector ActivitiesForestry Sector Activities

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Short Rotation Long Rotation Regeneration Forest Protection

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Costs and BenefitsCosts and Benefits

0.990.99

0.210.21

0.120.12

164.00164.00

35.0035.00

Forest Forest ProtectionProtection

0.390.3911.6911.6918.8618.86Lifecycle cost Lifecycle cost ($/Mg C/ha)($/Mg C/ha)

0.260.269.269.2613.7713.77Investment Cost Investment Cost ($ /Mg C)($ /Mg C)

-867.73-867.73-584.00-584.0055.0055.00NPV of benefits NPV of benefits ($/ha)($/ha)

68.0068.00877.00877.00415.00415.00Lifecycle cost Lifecycle cost ($/ha)($/ha)

45.0045.00695.00695.00303.00303.00Investment cost Investment cost ($/ha)($/ha)

Forest Forest Regeneration Regeneration 

Long Long Rotation Rotation 

  Short Short RotationRotation

  

Mitigation PotentialMitigation Potential

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Baseline scenario Commercial Forestry Scenario

Sustainable Forestry Scenario

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Fig 5: Changes in C pool under sustainable forestry scenario

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Fig 6: Changes in C pool under commercial forestry scenario

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Baseline Mitigation

Incremental Mitigation Potential (MtC)Incremental Mitigation Potential (MtC)Sustainable Forestry ScenarioSustainable Forestry Scenario

217217

(B-A)(B-A)     Incremental Incremental

C StockC Stock

237237

(2012-2000)(2012-2000)

BB

5764576455275527Mitigation Mitigation ScenarioScenario

C-stockC-stock

20 20

(2000-2012)(2000-2012)

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5507550755275527Baseline Baseline Scenario C-Scenario C-stockstock

Change in C-Change in C-stock stock

201220122000200019901990  

Annual income from carbon credits = Rs. 500 Crores

Investment Required (Rs. Million)Investment Required (Rs. Million)

Forestry activitiesForestry activities Area Area (Mha)(Mha)

Mitigation Scenario Mitigation Scenario (increment over baseline)(increment over baseline)

2000-20122000-2012 2000-20302000-2030

Short rotation plantationShort rotation plantation 3.633.63 3226532265 4063540635

Long-rotation plantationLong-rotation plantation 6.666.66 4459544595 5611556115

RegenerationRegeneration 11.1011.10 33753375 43204320

Forest protectionForest protection 8.498.49 35553555 45004500

TOTALTOTAL 29.8829.88 8379083790 105570105570

Additional annual investment needed = Rs. 700 to 1500 crores

Socio-economic impact of Socio-economic impact of mitigation optionsmitigation options

Employment and income generation through Employment and income generation through wage labourwage labour

Firewood and fodder collection from plantations Firewood and fodder collection from plantations for the local communitiesfor the local communities

Reduced needs for fuelwood collection for the Reduced needs for fuelwood collection for the local communitieslocal communities

Income generation through NTFP collectionIncome generation through NTFP collection Reduction in pressure on forestsReduction in pressure on forests Positive implications for biodiversityPositive implications for biodiversity Watershed protectionWatershed protection

Data, Methods, Models are critical- Data, Methods, Models are critical- Baseline & Project ActivitiesBaseline & Project Activities

Monitoring & estimating Monitoring & estimating AGB stock, annual AGB growth rateAGB stock, annual AGB growth rate Soil carbon stock, annual / periodic changesSoil carbon stock, annual / periodic changes Litter productionLitter production

Developing ratio of AGB to BGBDeveloping ratio of AGB to BGB Monitoring extraction rates and effects on carbon stockMonitoring extraction rates and effects on carbon stock Monitoring area changes, crown cover changes and linking to Monitoring area changes, crown cover changes and linking to

biomass stock changesbiomass stock changes Estimating production of wood and NTFPs & valuesEstimating production of wood and NTFPs & values Models for projecting biomass and soil carbon stockModels for projecting biomass and soil carbon stock Models for estimating costs and benefits Models for estimating costs and benefits Models & methods for incorporating barriers for estimating Models & methods for incorporating barriers for estimating

mitigation potentialmitigation potential

Addressing Contentious IssuesAddressing Contentious IssuesGuidelines, Methods, ModelsGuidelines, Methods, Models

NON-PERMANENCE/NON-PERMANENCE/REVERSIBILITY OF CARBON SEQUESTERED;REVERSIBILITY OF CARBON SEQUESTERED; Temporary nature of COTemporary nature of CO22 removal by sinks from LUCF activities removal by sinks from LUCF activities

Estimating C stocks annuallyEstimating C stocks annually

LEAKAGE;LEAKAGE; Net change of anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs Net change of anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs and removal by sinks, which occurs outside the project boundary, and and removal by sinks, which occurs outside the project boundary, and which is measurable and attributable to the CDM project activitywhich is measurable and attributable to the CDM project activity

Estimating C stock changes within & outside project boundaryEstimating C stock changes within & outside project boundary

ADDITIONALITYADDITIONALITY; ; A project activity is additional if anthropogenic GHG A project activity is additional if anthropogenic GHG emissions are reduced below those that would have occurred in the emissions are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the project activity absence of the project activity

[OR ][OR ]

COCO22 removal by sinks that are higher than that would have occurred in removal by sinks that are higher than that would have occurred in the absence of a project activitythe absence of a project activity

- Estimate C-stock changes under baseline and mitigation Sce- Estimate C-stock changes under baseline and mitigation Sce

Issues…Issues… BASELINE DEVELOPMENTBASELINE DEVELOPMENT

Reliable estimates of C stock changes in the proposed Reliable estimates of C stock changes in the proposed project area in the absence of project activity project area in the absence of project activity

METHODS TO ADDRESS CONTENTIOUS ISSUES ARE METHODS TO ADDRESS CONTENTIOUS ISSUES ARE AVAILABLEAVAILABLE SimplificationSimplification Reduce costs & increase accuracyReduce costs & increase accuracy Create access to potential usersCreate access to potential users

ACCOUNTING RULES FOR ADDRESSING CONTENTIOUS ACCOUNTING RULES FOR ADDRESSING CONTENTIOUS ISSUES ISSUES SBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines & methodsSBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines & methods

TRANSACTION COSTSTRANSACTION COSTS; for baseline dev. Monitoring and ; for baseline dev. Monitoring and project administration - project administration - MinimumMinimum

BUILDING INSTITUTIONS & CAPACITY TO ENHANCE BUILDING INSTITUTIONS & CAPACITY TO ENHANCE PARTICIPATION OF LOCAL INSTITUTIONS PARTICIPATION OF LOCAL INSTITUTIONS criticalcritical