The Spratly Islands:Potential for Conflict in the South China Sea?

Raul BernalConstantin Sabet d’Acre

• Location

• Location

• Location

Our Journey• Who wants what and why• Why it’s important• Strategic Interests of China and the

US• Potential for conflict

Territorial Claims over the South China Seas, Part I

• The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS)

• Claims based on UNCLOS– Brunei– Malaysia

Territorial Claims over the South China Seas, II

• Based on history– People’s Republic of China– Taiwan

• Based on mix of history and UNCLOS– Philippines– Vietnam

• Other concerned party: Indonesia

Driving Forces of Interest• Strategic position in terms of security

• Economic importance– Shipping lanes– Oil and gas– Fishing and manure

Oil Flows and Transports

Driving Forces of Interest• Strategic position in terms of security

• Economic importance– Shipping lanes– Oil and gas– Fishing and manure

Perceptions of China in SE Asia

• Historical mistrust of China

• Rapid change in attitudes in the past 5-10 years

• Reengagement with Southeast Asia

• Economic benefits, but many still skeptical of long-term ambitions

China’s Conduct in the SCS• 1974 – Paracel Islands seized• 1992 – Territorial expansion law• 1995 – Seizure of Mischief Reef• 2002 – Conduct of Parties in SCS• 2005 – Joint seismic survey• 2010 – Chinese fishing patrols

Source: www.spratlys.org

China’s Strategic Interests• Access to natural resources

• Control of sea lanes

• Projection of military force

• Extended regional influenceSource: PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs

US Strategic Interests• Counter Chinese influence

• Security of sea lanes

• Military access

• Counterterrorism effortsSource: US Defense Department

Potential for US-China Conflict• US disengagement and “benign neglect” of

SE Asia

• Oil exploration by US companies

• 2001 – Spy plane incident

• 2002 – USS Bowditch

• 2009 – USNS Impeccable

USNS Impeccable Incident• Sonar and mapping

ship operating within China’s EEZ

• Surrounded by several Chinese vessels

• Chinese submarine base at Hainan island

• US responds with Aegis Class Destroyer (USS Chung-Hoon)

Source: Jane’s Intelligence Review

Analysis• US:

– not taking sides on sovereignty issues– but concerned with increasing Chinese influence

and military power in the region• China:

– becoming more assertive in territorial claims despite increasing regional integration

• ASEAN:– desires closer economic ties with China– but engages the US as a hedge against Chinese

influence