The spec says…

• Examine the relationships between the degree of risk posed by a hazard and the probability of a hazard event occurring, the predicted losses and a community’s preparedness for it.

                                                                                                   

                                                             

                                                                                                     

                                                           

Risk=Hazard + Vulnerability

People's perception of risk or affected by a number of variables including:

• Personal experience e.g. never experienced a hazard or know friends that have been killed

• Personality e.g. risk taker, timid, careful

• Knowledge e.g. do you know there is a risk or are you naïve?

• Economic Status e.g. live in a strong house with the money to afford to escape a hazard or living in an informal settlement

The following knowledge or lack of knowledge about hazards can increase or decrease

individual's perception of risk:

Create a table and fill with factors that increase or decrease risk perception…

‍Factors‍Increasing‍Risk‍Perception ‍Factors‍Decreasing‍Risk‍Perception

Involuntary Hazard: If you have no control over a hazard or being exposed to a hazard e.g.

earthquake or chemical explosion then you are likely to have greater respect and an increased

fear.

Many Fatalities: Where hazards cause widespread death e.g. strong earthquake or

tsunami then people are normally more fearful.

Unfamiliar or Not understood: Hazards that people don't understand like a tsunami or nuclear accident tend top cause a greater

amount of fear.

Uncontrollable Hazard: Most physical hazards can not be controlled fully, especially large

natural hazards like hurricanes and tsunamis. These uncontrollable hazards often cause more

fear.

Awareness: If people are repeatedly warned about an impending hazard e.g. a hurricane about to hit then people will become more

fearful.

Large scale, fast impact and high magnitude: Hazards that cover large areas, happen quickly

and have a high magnitude tend to cause greater fear e.g. tsunami.

Voluntary Hazard: Just like the video we saw, if people have chosen to carry out something

hazardous, they have measured the risk and decided that the risk is acceptable.

Few Fatalities: Where casualties are often few e.g. British flood or avalanche is the Alps people view the risk as less because they believe that

they will not be affected.

Familiar and Understood: Hazards that people hear about regularly and understand cause less

e.g. floods.

Controllable Hazard: Some hazards can be controlled more e.g. immunisations for diseases or

the icing of roads to reduce traffic accidents. These types of hazards are often perceived as less

dangerous.

Lack of Awareness: If people don't know about a hazard e.g. pollutants in water or the atmosphere

they can obviously not perceive the risk.

Small scale, slow impact and low magnitude: If a hazard is only small-scale e.g. flood, takes a while to happen e.g. drought and weak then

people are less fearful.

Risk AssessmentCalculating the likely risk of a hazard happening.

Risk assessments usually look at a number of variables, including:

Potential Hazard: Looks at the potential hazards, for a country this might be natural hazards like earthquakes and hurricanes, for a school it might be hazards like sun stroke, traffic accidents or getting lost.

Likelihood of Hazard: Look at the frequency of the hazard happening. Again for a country this might how frequent floods happen or for a school the chances of someone running into a road or tripping down some stairs

Likely Impact: What problems the hazard will cause. This might be damage to property, death and injury for a tsunami or cuts and bruises for falling down stairs.

People at Risk: Who will be affected. Will it be a whole country or just an individual e.g. a drought might affect a whole country, but getting lost might be just one person.

Mitigation: How the threat of the hazard can be reduced e.g. building defences to protect from floods or warning students to wear hats and use sunscreen.

• Hazard happens infrequently.• Hazard happens frequently so people know the affects and know how to

prepare and react and therefore may underestimate the potential affects.

• Risk of hazard unknown.• Belief that they will not be affected.• Belief that they will be given adequate warning.• Belief that they are protected against the hazard.• Government tries to play down affect of hazard.• Low magnitude hazards.• Little media attention or poor communication meaning you have not

properly been informed.• Voluntarily put at risk.• Hazard normally affects few people.• Underestimate secondary hazards.

In reality, countries often underestimate the risks posed by hazards. This may be because:

In reality, countries often underestimate the risks posed by hazards. This may be because:

• Hazard happens infrequently e.g. supervolcano.• Hazard happens frequently so people know the affects and know how to prepare and react

and therefore may underestimate the potential affects e.g. hurricanes in the Caribbean.• Risk of hazard unknown e.g. intraplate earthquake or oil leak.• Belief that they will not be affected e.g. live in a safe area in a strong house• Belief that they will be given adequate warning e.g. prediction and notification e.g. tsunami

warning system in the Pacific Ocean• Belief that they are protected against the hazard e.g. Japan protected against tsunamis and

earthquakes• Government tries to play down affect of hazard e.g. Chernobyl accident in USSR (now the

Ukraine) or Cyclone Nargis• Low magnitude hazards e.g. drought in UK• Little media attention or poor communication meaning you have not properly been informed

e.g. Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar (Burma)• Voluntarily put at risk e.g. free climbing• Hazard normally affects few people e.g. UK flood• Underestimate secondary hazards e.g. the tsunami after the Japanese earthquake or disease

after the Haiti earthquake.