The scale of the UK’s regional problem

Closing the Gap Conference14 June 2004

Peter Robinson

Senior Economist, ippr

The PSA target

“Make sustainable improvements in the economic performance of all English

regions and over the long-term reduce the persistent gap in growth rates between the

regions……”

(Joint HMT/DTI/ODPM target)

Levels of GVA per head, 2002, UK=100

London 131

South East 121

East 110

Scotland 95

East Midlands 92

South West 91

West Midlands 90

North West 90

Yorks & Humber 86

Northern Ireland 79

Wales 79

North East 77

Note: Estimates on a residence basis

Trend growth ratesGVA per head, 1989-2000, % p.a.

South East 2.75

London 2.00

East 2.00

Average for the ‘south’ 2.25

North East 1.25

Yorks & Humber 1.75

North West 2.00

Average for the ‘north’ 1.75

West Midlands 2.25

Scotland 2.00

Northern Ireland 2.00

East Midlands 2.00

South West 1.75

Wales 1.50

UK/England average 2.00

(Source: EBS)

Employment rates, Winter 2003-04,

% of working age population

South West 79.6

East 79.5

South East 78.8

East Midlands 76.3

West Midlands 74.9

Scotland 74.3

Yorks & Humber 74.2

North West 73.9

Wales 72.1

London 70.4

North East 69.8

Northern Ireland 68.1

UK 74.9