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Dr. Marco Raugei, responsable del área de Transporte y Energía de la Cátedra UNESCO de Ciclo de de Vida y Cambio Climático fue invitado para dar una ponencia en el prestigioso British Carbon Group, en Cambridge, el pasado 20 de diciembre. La ponencia, abordó, el complejo tema de las emisiones de carbono antropogénicas y su interacción con el ciclo global del carbono.
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The role of carbon in climate change:
a life‐cycle‐thinking approach to a complex issue
Dr. Marco Raugei The Bri(sh Carbon Group, University of Manchester
20th December 2012
The Earth’s atmosphere
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Solar Radia>on
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The Greenhouse Effect
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With NO Greenhouse Effect the avg. temperature of the Earth would be -19˚C (-2 ˚F)!
H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, …
The Carbon Cycle
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Exchange pool:
• The primary source of carbon to the atmosphere is outgassing from the Earth's interior at mid‐ocean ridges, hotspot volcanoes, and subduc(on‐related volcanic arcs. • Some of the outgassed carbon remains as CO2 in the atmosphere • Some is dissolved in the oceans as HCO3
‐
• Some is fixed by photosynthesis as biomass
Reserve pool:
• Carbon is slowly removed into long‐term storage through • Pedogenesis (soil forma(on) • Fossil fuel forma>on (especially coal and black shales) • Sedimentary carbonate rock forma>on (largely biogenic)
The Carbon Cycle
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Homeosta>c climate control
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Climate records
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Climate records
Source: J.R. Petit, J. Jouzel. et. al. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420 000 years from the Vostok ice core in Antarctica, Nature 399, pp 429‐436, 1999
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Climate records
T ∝ 18O/16O ratio
(1950)
(1950)
392
(2012)
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Anthropogenic carbon emissions
Fossil fuel burning
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Deforesta>on
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Soil erosion
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CaLle husbandry
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Non‐linearity and unpredictability: Oceanic ‘conveyor belts’
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Non‐linearity and unpredictability: Arc>c methane
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Non‐linearity and unpredictability: El Niño Southern Oscill.
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Two possible reac>ons
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1. Anosognosia (noun): Real or feigned ignorance of the presence of disease.
2. Precau>onary principle: “if an ac(on or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scien(fic consensus that the ac(on or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking the ac(on”.
• In some legal systems, as in the law of the European Union, the applica(on of the precau(onary principle has been made a statutory requirement.
Technological fixes: the importance of Life Cycle Thinking
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Technological fixes: the importance of Life Cycle Thinking
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• The search for alterna(ve (less carbon‐intensive) energy sources…
Technological fixes: the importance of Life Cycle Thinking
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• The search for alterna(ve (less carbon‐intensive) energy sources…
…must obey the laws of physics!
Technological fixes: the importance of Life Cycle Thinking
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EROI of Photovoltaics: new calcula>ons
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EROI of Photovoltaics: new calcula>ons
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
mono‐c Si PV (PE‐eq.)
multi‐c Si PV (PE‐eq.)
ribbon Si PV (PE‐eq.)
CdTe PV (PE‐eq.)
Oil (min.) Oil (max.) Coal (min.)
Coal (max.)
EROI
Geo‐engineering solu>ons: uncertain and risky
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Beyond technological fixes
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I = P ∙ A ∙ T
Impact Population Affluence
Technology
Addressing ‘P’ and ‘A’
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• ‘The Limits to Growth’ (Club of Rome/MIT, 1972)
• ‘De‐growth’ (Georgescu‐Roegen, 1979)
• ‘A Prosperous Way Down’ (Odum and Odum, 2001)
• ‘Sustainable retreat rather than sustainable development’ (Lovelock, 2006)
Conclusions
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• Recognizing the problem
• Life Cycle Thinking
• ‘Out of the box’ thinking
• Paradigm shiZ
• ‘Way down’ does NOT have to mean ‘back to the cave’!
Thank you
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• Ques>ons?
• Comments?
• Concerns?
Dr. Marco Raugei ([email protected])
UNESCO Chair in Life Cycle and Climate Change,
ESCI – Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona, Spain Faculty of Technology, Design and Environment, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK Center for Life Cycle Analysis, Columbia University, New York (NY), USA
