The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

8/12/2019 The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

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DM@L Wnrklag Ydphr Rhrlhs

]fh Phajla`l damHxbfdagh Pdth Phgljhsla Hdst Dsld

Jdsdflrn Kdwdl dam_lbtnr Ynatlahs

An. =6=Jdy 094=

Dslda Mhvhcnpjhat @dak


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DM@L Wnrklag Ydphr =6= Kdwdl dam Ynatlahs

D`strdbt

Wltf tfh rlsh no tfh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflad (YPB) ds tfh wnrcms cdrghst trdmlag adtlna(jhdsurhm `y trdmh vdcuh) dam shbnam cdrghst hbnanjlb pnwhr (jhdsurhm `y GMY), ltshbnanjlb laocuhabh nvhr tfh ahlgf`nrlag hjhrglag hbnanjlhs la Hdst Dsld fds dcsn rlsha.

]fh YPB latrnmubhm snjh hxbfdagh rdth ochxl`lclty la Eucy 0998, dam la tfh wdkh no tfhgcn`dc oladabldc brlsls fds `hha pursulag d pnclby tn lathradtlnadclzh lts burrhaby, tfh rhajla`l(PJ@). Bchdrcy tfh hxbfdagh rdth pnclby no tfh YPB fds slgalolbdat ljpclbdtlnas onr hxbfdaghrdth rhgljhs la hjhrglag Hdst Dsld. ]fls pdphr hxdjlahs tfh `hfdvlnr no tfh PJ@hxbfdagh rdth dam tfh ljpdbt no PJ@ jnvhjhats na tfnsh no ntfhr burrhablhs la hjhrglagHdst Dsld murlag tfh phrlnm 0999094=. Wh dppcy tfh OrdakhcWhl rhgrhsslna jnmhc tnlmhatloy bfdaghs la tfh PJ@ hxbfdagh rdth rhgljh nvhr tljh dam d jnmlolhm vhrslna no tfhjnmhc, mhvhcnphm `y tfh dutfnrs la tfhlr hdrclhr pdphr, tn hstljdth tfh PJ@ whlgft la dahjhrglag Hdst Dslda hbnanjys burrhaby `dskht. Wh olam tfdt tfh XR mnccdr bnatlauhs tn `htfh mnjladat dabfnr burrhaby la tfh rhglna, wflch tfh PJ@ fds tdkha na labrhdslagljpnrtdabh la tfh burrhaby `dskhts no jday Hdst Dslda hbnanjlhs la rhbhat yhdrs. ]fhpdphr dcsn hxpcnrhs fnw jnahtdry dam burrhaby bnnphrdtlnachm `y tfh YPB dam Edpda

bda prnjnth latrd-Hdst Dslda hxbfdagh rdth std`lclty uamhr tfh prhssurh no rlslag oladabldcjdrkht nphaahss la tfh YPB.

EHC Bcdsslolbdtlna5O48, O24, O2?, O=4, N0=


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Bnathats

4. Latrnmubtlna ................................................................................................................ 2

0. Plsh no tfh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflads Hbnanjy dam Phajla`lLathradtlnadclzdtlna..................................................................................................... =

0.4 Plsh no tfh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflads Hbnanjy dam ]rdmh ....................... =0.0 Phajla`l Lathradtlnadclzdtlna ......................................................................... 80.2 Bdpltdc Dbbnuat Cl`hrdclzdtlna ........................................................................ 7

2. Hvncutlna no tfh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflads Hxbfdagh Pdth Phgljh ......................


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0. PLRH NO ]FH YHNYCHR PHYX@CLB NO BFLADRHBNANJ\ DAM PHAJLA@L LA]HPAD]LNADCLUD]LNA

0.4 Plsh no tfh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflads Hbnanjy dam ]rdmh

]fh rdplm pdbh no hbnanjlb grnwtf nvhr tfh pdst 29 yhdrs fds jdmh tfh YPB hbnanjy tfhwnrcm's shbnam cdrghst hbnanjy, jhdsurhm `y anjladc GMY dt jdrkht hxbfdagh rdths. La 0949,lt surpdsshm Edpda la slzh. Lt ls hxphbthm tn `hbnjh tfh wnrcm's cdrghst hbnanjy, wltf d cdrghrGMY tfda tfh XR, la tfh hdrcy 0909s. ]fh YPBs hbnanjlb grnwtf fds ljpnrtdat ljpclbdtlnasonr hxbfdagh rdth pnclblhs la ntfhr hbnanjlhs, pdrtlbucdrcy tfnsh la Hdst Dsld.

Wltf tfh hxpdaslna no tfh YPBs hbnanjy, lts trdmh fds dcsn labrhdshm rdplmcy. Olgurh 4 sfnwstfdt lt fds `hbnjh tfh wnrcms cdrghst hxpnrt adtlna, dbbnuatlag onr 4=% no gcn`dc hxpnrts la0942. Lts ljpnrts fdvh dcsn rlsha dam anw dbbnuat onr 40% no tfh gcn`dc tntdc. ]fh rlslag sfdrhno tfh YPBs hxpnrts la tfh gcn`dc jdrkht sugghsts tfdt lts bnjphtltnrs jdy `h bnabhrahm wltftfhlr hxpnrt bnjphtltlvhahss dgdlast tfh YPB dam jdy wlsf tn dvnlm tfh dpprhbldtlna no tfhlrburrhablhs dgdlast tfh PJ@. ]fh YPBs rlslag sfdrh no gcn`dc ljpnrts dcsn jhdas tfdt lts

hxpdamlag jdrkht ls dttrdbtlvh onr ntfhr hbnanjlhs ds lt prnvlmhs da nppnrtualty onr hbnanjlbgrnwtf. ]fls sugghsts tfdt tfhsh hbnanjlhs jdy wlsf tn trdbk tfh PJ@ bcnshcy.

Olgurh 45 Gcn`dc Rfdrh no tfh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflad's ]rdmh(% no wnrcm tntdc)

YPB : Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflad, XR : Xalthm Rtdths.

Anth5 Hurnznah-47 hxpnrts dam ljpnrts drh aht no latrd-hurnznah hxpnrts dam ljpnrts, rhsphbtlvhcy.

Rnurbh5 LJO, Mlrhbtlna no ]rdmh Rtdtlstlbs.

Jnst hjhrglag hbnanjlhs la Hdst Dsld fdvh lathaslolhm tfhlr trdmh rhcdtlnasflps wltf tfh YPB(]d`ch 4). Jnagncld dam Fnag Knag, Bflad fdvh pdrtlbucdrcy flgf hxpnrt mhphamhabh na tfhYPB, dam ]dlphl,Bflad; Dustrdcld; tfh Phpu`clb no Knrhd; Cdn Yhnpchs Mhjnbrdtlb Phpu`clb(YMP); dam Jydajdr fdvh shha tfhlr hxpnrt mhphamhabh rlsh la rhbhat yhdrs. Fnag Knag,Bflad; Jydajdr; Jnagncld; _lht Adj; dam Cdn YMP fdvh flgf ljpnrt mhphamhabh na tfh YPB.Lt wnucm ant `h surprlslag lo jnst no tfhsh Hdst Dslda hbnanjlhs tfdt fdvh hxpdamhm trdmh wltf

=


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tfh YPB stdrt tn pdy grhdthr dtthatlna tn tfh jnvhjhat no tfh PJ@ la tfhlr hxbfdagh rdthpnclblhs.

]d`ch 45 Dslda Hbnanjlhs Rfdrh no ]rdmh wltf tfh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflad(% no tntdc trdmh)

Hxpnrts tn tfh YPB Ljpnrts ornj tfh YPB

4


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snjh hxphrts (subf ds Hlbfhagrhha [0944Z dam Ru`rdjdalda [0944Z) tn `hclhvh tfdt tfh PJ@,dcnag wltf tfh hurn, wlcc `hbnjh d jdenr lathradtlnadc burrhaby rlvdclag tfh XR mnccdr rhcdtlvhcysnna. Lt ls flgfcy mhslrd`ch onr tfh YPB ds tfh wnrcms shbnam cdrghst hbnanjy tn prnvlmh tfhPJ@ ds da lathradtlnadc burrhaby ant nacy onr tfh YPB `ut dcsn onr gcn`dc trdmhrs dam lavhstnrs.

Da lathradtlnadc burrhaby pcdys shvhrdc rnchsds da lavnlblag burrhaby onr lathradtlnadc trdmh,

ds d mhanjladtlna burrhaby onr lathradtlnadc lavhstjhat, ds d rhohrhabh burrhaby onr ntfhrbnuatrlhs hxbfdagh rdth jdadghjhat, dam ds d onrhlga hxbfdagh rhshrvh burrhaby. ]fh XRmnccdr, tfh hurn, tfh Edpdahsh yha, dam tfh XK pnuam sthrclag drh jdenr lathradtlnadc burrhablhstnmdy, dam tfh Rwlss ordab, tfh Dustrdclda mnccdr dam tfh Bdadmlda mnccdr drh tfh ahxt-tlhrlathradtlnadc burrhablhs, ds sujjdrlzhm la ]d`ch 0. ]fhsh burrhablhs drh trdmhm jnst orhquhatcyla lathradtlnadc onrhlga hxbfdagh jdrkhts dam drh notha fhcm ds onrhlga hxbfdagh rhshrvhs `ytfh wnrcms bhatrdc `daks.

]d`ch 05 Hbnanjlhs wltf Lathradtlnadc Burrhablhs dam tfh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflad

Hbnanjy(Burrhaby)

Onrhlga HxbfdaghJdrkht ]uranvhr

(%), 0942

Onrhlga HxbfdaghPhshrvhs Fhcm (%),

0942

Wnrcm YdyjhatBurrhaby (%),

Oh` 094=

GMY la $ ]rlcclna(gcn`dc sfdrh, %),

0942

GMY phrBdpltd ($),

0942

Xalthm Rtdths ($) 67.9 ?4.0 26.< 4?,699 (00.7%) 82,494

Hurnznah () 22.= 0=.? 22.9 42,=4? (47.0%) 26,972

Edpda () 02.9 2.< 0.8 =,


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Lt ls ljpnrtdat tn anth tfdt onr d burrhaby tn `hbnjh d jdenr lathradtlnadc burrhaby, cdrghhbnanjlb slzh ls hsshatldc. Onr hxdjpch, tfh burrhablhs no Fnag Knag, Bflad; Rlagdpnrh; damAhw Uhdcdam fdvh dbflhvhm lathradtlnadc burrhaby stdtus, `ut tfhy drh ant jdenr nr hvhashbnam-tlhr lathradtlnadc burrhablhs `hbdush no tfhlr sjdcc hbnanjlb slzh. Dustrdcld, Bdadmd,dam Rwltzhrcdam bdaant gn `hynam tfh shbnam-tlhr lathradtlnadc burrhaby stdtus onr tfh sdjhrhdsna. La tfls rhgdrm, tfh YPBs GMY ls dcrhdmy tfh shbnam cdrghst la tfh wnrcm dam wlcc clkhcy

bdtbf up wltf XR dam hurnznah la chss tfda 49 yhdrs. La dmmltlna, tfh YPBs trdmh vncujh lsanw sclgftcy cdrghr tfda tfdt no tfh XR. ]fh burrhaby no d cdrgh hbnanjy thams tn `h ushmorhquhatcy onr trdmh lavnlblag, lavhstjhat mhanjladtlna, rhshrvh fncmlag, dam ds da dabfnr onrhxbfdagh rdth std`lclzdtlna lo onrhlga lavhstnrs dam bhatrdc `daks olam lt hdsy dam bnavhalhat tnush tfh burrhaby. ]fls sugghsts tfdt nabh tfh PJ@ dbflhvhs lathradtlnadc burrhaby stdtus, ltfds tfh pnthatldc tn `hbnjh d jdenr lathradtlnadc burrhaby clkh tfh XR mnccdr, tfh hurn, dam tfhyha.

0.2 Bdpltdc Dbbnuat Cl`hrdclzdtlna

Yrngrhss tnwdrm bdpltdc dbbnuat cl`hrdclzdtlna ls hsshatldc tn tfh lathradtlnadclzdtlna no dburrhaby. Wltfnut dmhqudth bdpltdc dbbnuat cl`hrdclzdtlna, jhdalagouc burrhaby

lathradtlnadclzdtlna wlcc ant `h dbflhvhm. ]fh YPB fds ljpchjhathm d shrlhs no bdpltdc dbbnuatcl`hrdclzdtlna jhdsurhs slabh lts dmnptlna no hbnanjlb rhonrjs dam nphalag la tfh cdth 4


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(hxbcumlag onrhlga hxbfdagh rhshrvhs) dam cld`lcltlhs rhcdtlvh tn d bnj`ladtlna no tfh bnuatrysGMY dam trdmh vdcuhs.

Olgurh 05 Lamhxhs no Bdpltdc Dbbnuat Nphaahss onr tfh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflad damEdpda

YPB : Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflad.

Anth5 ]fh bdpltdc dbbnuat ls ouccy npha dt d vdcuh no 4 dam bnjpchthcy bcnshm dt d vdcuh no 9.

Rnurbhs5 Bflaa dam Ltn (0996) dam wh`slth; Ltn dam Kdwdl (0940).

]fh olgurh sfnws tfdt tfh YPB dbflhvhm d bhrtdla mhgrhh no bdpltdc dbbnuat nphaahss la tfholrst fdco no tfh 4


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Y@B Gnvhranr Ufnu Vldnbfuda dcsn stdthm tfdt tfh `dslb (ant oucc nr orhh) bnavhrtl`lclty no tfhbdpltdc dbbnuat wnucm `h dbflhvhm `y 0948. Fnwhvhr, Olgurh 0 sugghsts tfdt dbflhvlag d flgfmhgrhh no bdpltdc dbbnuat cl`hrdclzdtlna wltfla subf d sfnrt tljh phrlnm wnucm `h d slgalolbdatbfdcchagh.

2. H_NCX]LNA NO ]FH YHNYCHR PHYX@CLB NO BFLADRHVBFDAGH PD]H PHGLJH

2.4 Hxbfdagh Pdth @hfdvlnr

Xatlc 4


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ocubtudth wltfla tfh prhvlnuscy sht `dam no 9.2% drnuam tfh daanuabhm bhatrdc pdrlty, dam4.8% dgdlast ana-XR mnccdr burrhablhs.

2

Rtdrtlag la Eucy 0998, tfh dutfnrltlhs dccnwhm tfh PJ@ tn dpprhbldth grdmudccy, pdrtcy tn tlgfthajnahtdry pnclby glvha tfh mnjhstlb hbnanjlb nvhrfhdtlag dam pdrtcy tn rhspnam tn tfh brltlblsj`y tfh XR dam LJO tfdt tfh YPB fdm jdlatdlahm da uamhrvdcuhm burrhaby wflbf chm tn rlslag

burrhat dbbnuat surpcushs dam onrhlga hxbfdagh rhshrvhs. ]fh pdbh no dpprhbldtlna wds scnwdam whcc-bnatrncchm `ut phrslsthat uatlc tfh sujjhr no 0996. ]fh anjladc PJ@ dgdlast tfh XRmnccdr dpprhbldthm `y 47.8% dam tfh PJ@ rhdc hoohbtlvh rdth `y 48% `htwhha Euah 0998 damRhpthj`hr 0996 wfha tfh PJ@ rhdbfhm d phdk `honrh tfh wnrcm odbhm tfh grdvhbnashquhabhs no tfh gcn`dc oladabldc brlsls.

La tfh sujjhr no 0996 tfh YPB dutfnrltlhs mhbhchrdthm tfh pdbh no PJ@ dpprhbldtlna damrhstnrhm d XR mnccdr phg systhj onr tfh PJ@ `honrh tfh Chfjda sfnbk shat gcn`dc oladabldcjdrkhts latn mhhp turjnlc. ]fhy whrh bnabhrahm d`nut tfh hrnslna no tfh YPBs hxpnrtbnjphtltlvhahss dam mhblmhm tn std`lclzh tfh PJ@ rdth dgdlast tfh XR mnccdr hvha `honrh jdayno lts hxpnrt bnjphtltnrs la tfh rhglna `hgda tn suoohr ornj sfdrp mhprhbldtlnas no tfhlrburrhablhs dothr tfh bnccdpsh no Chfjda @rntfhrs. ]fh PJ@ hxbfdagh rdth wds sht dt BA\?.62phr XR mnccdr uatlc Jdy 0949. La Euah 0949 tfh YPB d`damnahm tfh phg nabh dgdla, dccnwlag

PJ@ dpprhbldtlna dgdlast tfh XR mnccdr tn rhsujh.

Olgurh = sfnws tfh YPBs `dcdabh no pdyjhats, l.h., tfh burrhat dbbnuat, tfh oladabldc dbbnuat,dam rhshrvh dbbujucdtlna. ]fh YPB rda d cdrgh burrhat dbbnuat surpcus la tfh shbnam fdco notfh 0999s, rhdbflag 49% no GMY la 0997, wflbf rdplmcy sfrdak tfhrhdothr. ]fh bnuatrys rhshrvhdbbujucdtlna wds dcsn antd`ch glvha tfh surpcushs la `ntf tfh burrhat dbbnuat dam tfh oladabldcdbbnuat. Lts stnbk no onrhlga hxbfdagh rhshrvhs rhdbfhm XR$2.6 trlcclna dt tfh ham no 0942.

Olgurh =5 ]fh Yhnpchs Phpu`clb no Bflads Burrhat Dbbnuat, Oladabldc Dbbnuat, damPhshrvhs

(% no GMY)

-=

-0

9

0

=

?

6

49

40

4=

4


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2.0 Lathradtlnadc Jnahtdry Ouam Bcdsslolbdtlna no tfh YhnpchsPhpu`clb no Bflads Hxbfdagh Pdth Phgljhs

]d`ch = sujjdrlzhs tfh LJOs bcdsslolbdtlna no hxbfdagh rdth drrdaghjhats no Hdst Dsldahbnanjlhs ornj 0999 tn 0942. Hdst Dsld hxfl`lts d rlbf sht no mlvhrsh onrhlga hxbfdagh rdth

rhgljhs. Ds sfnwa la tfh td`ch, tfh sphbtruj rdaghs ornj tfh XR mnccdr phg no Fnag Knag,Bflads burrhaby `ndrm systhj (dam @ruahl Mdrussdcdj's Rlagdpnrh mnccdr phg uamhr lts nwaburrhaby `ndrm systhj) dt nah ham tn tfh orhh ocndtlag Edpdahsh yha dt tfh ntfhr. La `htwhha,tfhrh drh vdrlnus typhs no lathrjhmldth rhgljhs (ntfhr bnavhatlnadc olxhm phg drrdaghjhats,std`lclzhm drrdaghjhats, brdwclag phg rhgljhs, brdwc-clkh drrdaghjhats, ntfhr jdadghmrhgljhs, jdadghm ocndtlag drrdaghjhats, dam ocndtlag rhgljhs), bfnsha `y mloohrhat hbnanjlhs.

]fh olrst rnw no tfh td`ch rhpnrts bfdaghs la tfh YPBs hxbfdagh rdth rhgljh ds mholahm `y tfhLJO. Ds hxpcdlahm d`nvh, tfh YPB fdm d mnccdr phg systhj uatlc Eucy 0998, mholahm `y tfh LJOds ntfhr bnavhatlnadc olxhm phg drrdaghjhat (XR mnccdr). ]fh jnvh tn wfdt tfh dutfnrltlhsbdcchm d jdadghm ocndt wds rhbngalzhm `y tfh LJO ds d jnvh tn d brdwclag phg nacy la Dugust099? dam wds rhpnrthm ds subf la tfh Dprlc 0997 lssuh no tfh Daaudc Phpnrt na Hxbfdagh

Drrdaghjhats dam Hxbfdagh Phstrlbtlnas (DPHDHP). ]fh rhdsna onr tfls mhcdy wds tfdt tfh

ocubtudtlna la tfh PJ@XR mnccdr hxbfdagh rdth wds chss tfda tfh 0% rdagh (onr d 2-jnatfphrlnm) ushm la tfh LJOs hxbfdagh rdth bcdsslolbdtlna systhj, sn tfdt laltldccy tfh rhgljh wdsbcdsslolhm ds d bnavhatlnadc olxhm phg hxbfdagh rdth drrdaghjhat. ]fh rhtura tn d XR mnccdr phgla jlm-0996 wds ljjhmldthcy bdpturhm `y tfh LJO, hoohbtlvh Euah 0996, ds tfh PJ@ sfnwhm tfhbfdrdbthrlstlbs no d std`lclzhm drrdaghjhat. ]fh td`ch rhpnrts tfh bfdagh jdmh la tfh Dprlc 099

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The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia