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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market
AVICENNE ENERGYChristophe PILLOT
July 4th, 2018London
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Presentation Outline• The rechargeable battery market in 2017• The Li-ion battery value chain• Li-ion Battery market Forecasts
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC
0
1000
2000
3000
2000 2017
Mill
ion
Uni
ts/
year
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ionNiMH
165 MPortable PCs
165 M Tablets
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2017
Mill
ion
Uni
ts/Y
ear
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
2.6
< 0,15
0
1
2
3
2000 2017
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
7 000
> 270 000
0
100000
200000
300000
2000 2017
Tons
Tons of cathode active materials
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2018 2
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2017
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2018 3
CAGR Li-ion 2010-2017: +27%
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2016
2017
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2016
2017
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2017Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investmentsLead acid batteries: By far the most important market (75% market share)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2018 4
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2017
36.5
37.0
01020304050607080
1990
2000
2005
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Billi
on U
S $
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
>75 BILLION US$ in 2017 – Pack level19% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2010-2017)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990
2000
2005
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Billi
on U
S$
OTHERS
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRIAL
E-BIKES
POWER TOOLS
PORTABLE
SLI
SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests,
Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
INDUSTRIAL• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others
(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,
AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EVOTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators, drones, Light Electric Vehicles, Hoverboard, …
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2018 5
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
LI-ION IN 2017 - MAIN APPLICATIONS
6
(1) Cell levelOthers: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…Source: AVICENNE Energy 2018
>120 000 MWh - 28 B$ (1) CAGR 2007/2017+25 % per year in Volume
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2017
Others
Industrial,ESS
Auto, E-busChina
Auto, e-busExcl. China
Electronicdevices
Phones17%
Portable PC66%
Portable Electronics
17%
2000: < 2GWh
2017: >120 GWh
Electronic devices
26%
Auto, E-bus Excl. China
20%
Auto, E-bus China37%
Industrial, ESS5%
Others12%
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
LI-ION IN 2017 - MAIN APPLICATIONSCAGR 2007/2017+25% per year in VolumeCell: +16% per year in valuePack: +18% per year in value
7Source: AVICENNE Energy 2018
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
M$
Li-ion cellsM$, Worldwide, 2005-2017
Others
Industrial,ESS
Auto, E-busChina
Auto, e-busExcl. China
Electronicdevices -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
M$
Li-ion PacksM$, Worldwide, 2000-2017
Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…
+120000 MWh - 27 B$ (1)7 300 M small cells
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALSRAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 60 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESSRAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT
8Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%Pr
oduc
tion
cost
LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV pouch cell NMC
Proces Yield
Depreciation
SGA, overhead
R&D
Utility
Labor
Material
Cathode cost27%
Anode cost5%
Electrolyte6%
Separator8%
Other materials
11%
Depreciation16%
Direct labor1%
Energy, utilities
4%
R&D5%
Sales & Adm3%
Overheads3%
Warranty5%
Margin3%
Scraps3%
Average cost structure of Li-ion cell
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
9
LIB CATHODE MATERIAL
Cathode raw materials marketLiCoO2 (LCO)LiMn2O4 (LMO)LiMPO4(1) (LFP) Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMCLi[NixCoyAlz]O2 – NCA
Source: SANYO, March 2011(1) M= Fe or Mn
Source: LME
0
50
100
150
$/kg
Ni & Co price 2003-2017
NiCo
Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2012 – Nice ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
CATHODE ACTIVEMATERIALS NEEDSCathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2010-2017 (Demand)
(…)
LEADERS:
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Tons
LFP
LMO
NCA
NMC
LCO
RationalesIn 2017, LCO is used in pouch cells for electronic devices: smartphones, tablets, ultra thin portable PCsNMC is used in other electronic devices & xEVNCA is used by 18650 Panasonic cells in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO in other xEVLMO is mostly used as a blend with NMC in xEVLFP is used in xEV, e-buses in China and for industrial applications
10
67 000
> 270 000
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS 2000-2025Cathode active materials 2000-2025 - Tons
Cathode active materials in 2017 > 275 000 Tons
11
ASSUMPTIONS:Portable devices:2017-2025: +5-6% per year in volumeHEV: 3 M HEV/year in 2020, 4,2 M HEV in 2025 P-HEV: 0,65 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 1,4 M in 2025 EV: 1,9 M EV/year in 2020 (1,3 M in China) / 4 M/year in 2025 (2,8 M in China) 100% LIBIndustrial, stationary & other applications 2016-2025: +16% per year
Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (+350 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)
LCO14%
NMC33%
NCA9%
LMO6%
LFP38%
Cathode active materials in 2025875 000 Tons
LCO6%
NMC70%
NCA8%
LMO1%
LFP15%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Tons
LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%)
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2018
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2017
2020
2025
% o
f the
Glo
bal p
rodu
ctio
n
Tons
Nickel Lithium
12
METAL NEEDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
Cobalt
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2017
2020
2025
% o
f the
Glo
bal p
rodu
ctio
n
Tons
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2017
2020
2025
% o
f the
Glo
bal p
rodu
ctio
n
Tons
(LCE
)
Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2018
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by application (3C)
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C)
13
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
M c
ells
/yea
r
Li-P Li-ion PrLi-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)
(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
CAGR 17-25: + 5%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2017
2020
2025
MW
h
Other PortableElectronics
Tablets
Portable PCs
Cellular Phones
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
X-EV MARKETWhy x-EV ?Definition & segmentationX-EV worldwide in 2017
By countryBy car makersBy battery chemistry
X-EV forecastsAVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecastsBattery chemistry forecastsBattery cost forecasts
X-EV battery forecasts14
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2017 2020 2025
MW
hfo
r Aut
o &
E-b
uses
E-buses
PHEV & EV inChina
EV
PHEV
HEV
Micro HEV
CAGR 2017-2025:+ 24%
71 GWh
170 GWh
390 GWh
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 20172,3 M HEVHEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2000 - 2017
Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000-2017
15Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGYMicro hybrid not included
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
TOYOTA OTHERS
USA
JAPON
EUROPE0%
10%
20%
30%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Pe
netr
atio
n of
HEV
Growth 2016-2017: +20%From 1,9 M to 2,3 M HEV
Gazoline price impact on HEV market in the US
0
1
2
3
4
0
200000
400000
600000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Gaso
line
$ / G
allo
n
HEV
sale
s per
yea
r
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE > 370 000 IN 2017
World excl. China growth +32%Chinese Growth + 26%
China is leading the P-HEV market thanks to high incentives
16Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
P-HE
V (u
nits
)
OTHERS CHINASAICBYDOTHERSCHRYSLERAUDIPORSCHEHYUNDAIVOLVODAIMLERBMWHONDAMITSUBISHIVWFORDTOYOTAGM
+31%
US24%
JAPAN8%EUROPE
37%
CHINA26%
Others5%
USA (+15%)
Japan
Europe (+26%)
China (+26%)
Others -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
P-HE
V (u
nits
)
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
EV SOLD WORLDWIDE> 800 000 IN 2017World excl. China growth >26%Chinese Growth > 80%
China is leading the EV market thanks to high incentives
17Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
EV (u
nits
)
Other ChinaHAWTAISAICGACDongFeng NissanChanaJMCCHERYJACGeelyBAICZhidouZotyeKandiBYDOthersBOLLOREPSAHondaMITSUBISHIDAIMLERFIATGMFordKIAVWSMARTBMWToyota
> 55%
US12% JAPAN
2%
EUROPE20%
CHINA63%
Others3%
USA (+12%)
Japan
Europe (+42%)
China (+80%)
Others -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EV (u
nits
)
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
NEV* DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA>600 000 PHEV & EV sold in China in 2017
PHEV & EV evolution
18
PHEV16%
EV84%
*NEV=PHEV+EV (New Energy Vehicles)
BYD15%
SAIC5%
Kandi2%
Zotye5%
Zhidou8%
BAIC16%
Geely4%
JAC5%
CHERY4%JMC
5%
HAWTAI2%
Tesla2%
Other China27%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aou Sep Oct Nov Dec
PHEV
& E
V sa
les (
Uni
ts)
2014 2015 2016 2017
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION
19
China – 60%USA – 2%
EU -<1%
Japan – 17%
Korea – 15%
PanasonicSonyNECMaxellPEVEYUASA
SAFTFIAMM
BOLLORE
SAMSUNGLGSKKokam
BYDGP
LishenCOSLIGHT
ATLBAKB&K
Wanxiang (A123)
LGJohnson-Controls
EnersysSAFT
SAMSUNGLG
Others* – 5%
Source: AVICENNE 2017
* OTHERS: Malaysia mostly(1) Government subsidies only(2) AVICENNE Estimation
Korean companies start to move in MalaysiaNew production capacity in Europe and US
$ 5 Bn35 GWh2017
$ 562 M3-5 GWh2018
$ 5 000 M(2)34 GWh2028
$ 360 M2-3 GWh2018
$ 5 000 M (2)32 GWh2023
131 176 208 268 323 380
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Prod
. Cap
acity
MW
h
790 M$7,5 GWh2020
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
SAFETY ISSUES
20
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projectsB
ackg
roun
dM
obile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte.In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
Auto
mot
ive
Airc
raft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
21
Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY
The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago). So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.
22
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
LI-ION BATTERY COST2015-2025LIB cell average cost (40 Ah pouch)(EV design ; NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV
23* For Production > 100 000 packs/year(1) Active materials only
2020 20252017
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cell
Pack
Cel
l
Pac
k
Cel
l
Pack
$ /
kWh
Pack Cost
CellManufacturing
Other Materials
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode
Cathode0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2017 2020 2025
$ /
kWh
MarginWarrantyOverheadsSales & AdmR&DEnergy, utilitiesDirect laborDepreciationScrapsOthersSeparatorElectrolyteAnode (1)Cathode (1)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2018
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
0.08 0.1 0.20.3
0.30.3
0.6
1.3
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2010
2015
2017
2020
2025
Mill
ion
cars
HEV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS
24HEV: 1kWh battery / car
HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured
0.180.6
1.6
3.4
0.24
0.37
0.65
1.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010
2015
2017
2020
2025
kWh
/ EV
Mill
ion
cars
EV manufactured
1.1
2.2
2.8
3.6
5.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2010
2015
2017
2020
2025
% L
i-ion
HEV
Mill
ion
cars
0,44
0,8
1,6
PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car
1
1,6
4,9
China
World Excl.China
World Excl.China
China
World Excl.China
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
BATTERY DEMAND - XEV2025 FORECASTSLi-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)CAGR 2017-2025: +24%
Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$)CAGR 2017-2025: +17%
25
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2010 2015 2020 2025
M W
h
12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEVEV EV & PHEV China E-bus ChinaE-bus excl. China
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2010 2015 2020 2025
M $
12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV
EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS
26Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…Source: AVICENNE Energy 2018
From 120 GWh in 2017 to 520 GWh CAGR 2017/2025+21 % per year in Volume
2017: >120 GWh
2025: 520 GWh
Electronic devices
26%
Auto, E-bus Excl. China
20%
Auto, E-bus China37%
Industrial, ESS5%
Others12%
Electronic devices
9%
Auto, E-bus Excl. China23%
Auto, E-bus China52%
Industrial, ESS5%Others
11%
18%
23%
31%
25%
5%
CAGR 15/25(Realistic)
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2025
Others
Industrial, ESS
Auto, E-bus China
Auto, e-bus Excl.China
Electronic devices
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
TAKEAWAYS
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Others: Automatic handling equipment, robots, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, drones, Hoverboard……
Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applicationsIn 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEVP-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 18 B$ market in 2017 - 34 B$ in 2020 & 65 B$ in 2025 with high numbers in China (2017: US$6 Billion for xEV and US$ 5 Billion for xE-Buses)EV expectations attract large Chemical companiesNew materials are needed to meet Automotive standardsHEV will account for 3% of the auto sales in 2020P-HEV & EV for 2% to 3% by 2020Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid in value from 2018.A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteriesNew LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, hoverboard, drones: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 yearsESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2025
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MW
h
Others
LIB
NiMH
NiCd
Lead Acid
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Lead Acid (+5%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (-1%)LIB for xEV (+19%) LIB for Others* (+12%)
25B$ 30B$65 B$
110 B$
>150 B$
210 GWh325 GWh
730 GWh
> 1 000 GWh
20
9
52
(CAGR 2015-2025)
69
(Pack level) 3
43B$
440 GWh
Battery Market 2015-2025 - CAGR = +9% / Li-ion>+13%
Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion
Battery Market
July 4th, 2018London
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOTAVICENNE [email protected]: +33 1 44 55 19 90Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
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