The Power to Reduce CO 2 Emissions The Full Portfolio National Association of Utility Regulatory Commissioners Winter Committee Meetings Committee on Electricity

The Power to Reduce CO2 EmissionsThe Full Portfolio

National Association of Utility Regulatory CommissionersWinter Committee MeetingsCommittee on ElectricityFebruary 19, 2008

Revis W. JamesDirector, Energy Technology Assessment Center

2© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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O2 E

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EIA Base Case 2008

2008 EIA CO2 Baseline is Lower than 2007 EIA CO2 Baseline

Technology EIA 2008 Reference Target

Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.2%/yr Load Growth ~ +0.75%/yr

Renewables 60 GWe by 2030 100 GWe by 2030

Nuclear Generation 20 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030

Advanced Coal GenerationNo Existing Plant Upgrades

40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020–2030

130 GWe Plant Upgrades

46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030

CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020

PHEV None10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017;

+2%/yr Thereafter

DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030

EIA Base Case 2007

• Lower Demand Growth Rate

• 30GW more Renewables

• 8 GW more Nuclear

• Less natural gas

}


Generation Mix in 2030

Petroleum1.1%

Natural Gas 12.1%

Coal57.0%

Non-Hydro Renewables

5.5% Conventional Hydropower

5.8%

Nuclear 18.5%

Coal w/o CCS 38.9%

Advanced Coal w/CCS, 11.9%

Natural Gas7.6%

Nuclear 27.7%

Conventional Hydropower

4.9%


9.0%

EIA 2008 Base Case EPRI “Prism” Full Portfolio

Other Fossil1.7%

Natural Gas13.5%

Coal w/o CCS59.6%


3.0%

Conventional Hydropower

5.6%

Nuclear Power16.6%

EIA 2007 Base Case


Assumed U.S. Economy-Wide CO2 Constraint

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- Analyzed three different economy-wide CO2 constraints

- PRISM electric sector CO2

profile most closely modeled by economy-wide constraint which:

-Caps emissions at 2010 levels until 2020

-Requires 3% decline beginning in 2020

-Emissions reduced to ~85% of 1990 levels by 2050

Starting Point is Current Intensity Target

2010 Cap to 2020

3% decline


Electricity Technology Scenarios

Full Portfolio Limited Portfolio

Supply-Side

•Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Available Unavailable

•New NuclearProduction Can

ExpandExisting Production

Levels ~100 GW

•Renewables (no subsidies) Costs Decline Costs Decline Slower

•New Coal and Gas Improvements Improvements

Demand-Side

•Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)

Available Unavailable

•End-Use EfficiencyAccelerated

ImprovementsImprovements


U.S. Electric Generation - Full PortfolioCoal

w/CCS

Gas

w/CCS Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

SolarOil

Demand Reduction

Demand with No Policy

Biomass

Full Portfolio (economic allocation)

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02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Coal

Coal with CCS

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas and non-captured coal are the

only supply options paying a CO2 cost

The vast majority of

electricity supply is CO2-free

Wind

Public Policy (RPS) would modify

this economic allocation


U.S. Electric Generation – Limited PortfolioCoal

w/CCS

Gas

w/CCS Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

SolarOil

Demand Reduction

Demand with No Policy

Biomass

8

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3

2

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02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tri

llio

n k

Wh

per

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Limited Portfolio (economic allocation)

Coal

Gas

Nuclear • Gas (half the CO2 intensity of coal) pays a significant CO2 cost

• ~ 2.8x greater than NG electricity production in 2005

• Highly improbable.

With a less de-carbonized supply,

electricity load must decline

to meet the CO2 emissions target

WindHydro

Biomass


2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Full

Limited

$/to

n C

O2*

*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$

CO2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide

Year

With a de-carbonized electricity supply,

other parts of the economy pay a CO2 cost…

not the electricity sector


2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Full

Limited

$/to

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O2*

*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$

CO2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide

Year

With a less de-carbonized supply,

the electricity sector pays a significant

CO2 cost…along with other sectors


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Wholesale Electricity Price

Full

Limited

$/M

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Inde

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elat

ive

to Y

ear

2000

*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$Year

In the Full Portfolio the price of

electricity has a low CO2 cost

component and increases less


Full Technology Portfolio Reduces Costs of a CO2 Emissions Reduction Policy by 60%


RD&D is a good investment

$1,000B

$30B

RD&D Investment(2005-2030, present value in 2000 $)

Avoided Cost to U.S. Economy

(2000-2050, present value in 2000 $)


Technology Challenges

1. Smart Grids and Communication Infrastructure

2. Transmission Grids and Associated Energy Storage Infrastructures

3. Advanced Light Water Reactors

4. Coal-Based Generation Units with CO2 Capture and Storage

Demonstration Projects

Smart Grids

Compressed Air Energy Storage

Concentrated Solar Power Plant (CSP)

CCS using Chilled Ammonia

CCS using a Different Technology

Advanced Pulverized Coal Plant – UltraGen I

IGCC with CCS

Low-cost O2 Production

Launch the Technology


EPRI Vision

Revis James

Director, Energy Technology Assessment Center

[email protected]


Backup Slides


Assumed U.S. Economy-Wide CO2 ConstraintComparison

Source: U.S. DoE Energy Information Administration 2008 Annual Energy Outlook (Early Release, Figure 8)

2030 Emissions from MERGE Analysis

~60% of EIA 2030 projected


Transition to Low-Emissions Technologies

• Expanded Advanced Light Water Reactor Deployment

• Enabling Efficiency, PHEVs, DER via the Smart Distribution Grid

• Enabling Intermittent Renewables via Advanced Transmission Grids

• Advanced Coal Plants with CO2 Capture and Storage


Building for the FutureEnabling Efficiency, PHEVs, DER via the Smart Distribution Grid

Smart Distribution Smart Distribution System DemonstrationsSystem Demonstrations

Intelligent devices and automatic energy

management widespread.

Major penetration of PHEVs into new light

vehicle market.

Deployment of Smart Distribution

grids


Building for the FutureEnabling Intermittent Renewables via Advanced Transmission Grids

Advanced 350 MW Advanced 350 MW CAES DemonstrationCAES Demonstration

Intermittent renewables could provide as much as 20-30% of generation in

some areas.

Deployment of advanced transmission grid

technologies.

Concentrated Solar Concentrated Solar Power Plant (CSP)Power Plant (CSP)


Building for the FutureExpanded Advanced Light Water Reactor Deployment

First new nuclear First new nuclear plants deployedplants deployed

Existing nuclear plant licenses extended to

80 years.

ALWR deployment.

All existing nuclear plant licenses extended

to 60 years.


Existing Nuclear Plant Licenses

Source: Nuclear Energy Institute

40 year licenses: 2009-2035




New Nuclear Plants2007 EPRI MERGE Analysis (generic CO2 emissions constraint)


Building for the Future Advanced Coal Plants with CO2 Capture and Storage

Commercial availability of CO2

storage.

COCO22 Capture Capture

DemonstrationsDemonstrations

COCO22 Storage Storage

DemonstrationsDemonstrations

UltraGen I—Advanced Pulverized Coal UltraGen I—Advanced Pulverized Coal Plant (with COPlant (with CO22 Capture) Capture)

All new coal plants capture 90% of CO2.

Potential CO2 capture retrofits?

Potential CO2 capture for Natural Gas Combined

Cycle plants?

Documents

The Power to Reduce CO 2 Emissions The Full Portfolio National Association of Utility Regulatory Commissioners Winter Committee Meetings Committee on Electricity