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The Power to Change

Cost Reduction Potentialsfor Solar and Wind

Renewable power generation costs continue to fall

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The share of total installed costs of the solar field related items is 39% for PTC plants and 38% for ST plants in 2015. The transition to molten salt for the HTF and storage medium for PTC plants is expected to reduce thermal energy storage costs by more than 40% and their share of total costs to fall from 15% in 2015 to 12% by 2025. For ST plants, the indirect costs are expected to decrease by about three-quarters from 2015 levels.

System cost breakdown of CSP reference plants, 2015 and 2025

Concentrating solar power: installed costs

For PTCs, major drivers are an increase in the temperature level enabled by the switchover to molten salt as the HTF which accounts for about 13% of the total LCOE reduction. The second important cost driver is the reduction of solar field costs.

For STs, the largest single driver for LCOE reductions is related to gains in the EPC experience. The indirect EPC cost alone is expected to contribute about one-fifth to the overall LCOE reduction potential of towers.

CSP: LCOE reduction potential

But will conventional wisdom hold?

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