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The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director Dr. Noam Lupu, Associate Director Preliminary AmericasBarometer Mid-Fieldwork Report May 2019

The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

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Page 1: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results

Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, DirectorDr. Noam Lupu, Associate Director

Preliminary AmericasBarometer Mid-Fieldwork Report

May 2019

Page 2: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

A note about the data in this report

• LAPOP releases each AmericasBarometer country dataset for

free public download and analysis, following each round.

• This report includes results based on analysis of a preliminary,

pre-release data from the most recent AmericasBarometer,

complemented by cross-time data available on LAPOP’s website.

• Regional averages shown in this report are calculated only for

the 11 countries for which pre-release data were available.

• The AmericasBarometer is supported by USAID, Vanderbilt

University, the Inter-American Development Bank, and other

partners across the Americas. The analyses in this report were

generated by LAPOP and not necessarily reflect the opinions of

USAID or any other funding agency.

• Questions? Please contact the report authors: Dr. Elizabeth Zechmeister

([email protected]) and Dr. Noam Lupu ([email protected]).

Page 3: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Samples representative at national & subnational levels

Standardized methods

Common core content

Completed SurveysColombia Sep-Dec, 2018Costa Rica Sep-Oct, 2018Honduras Oct-Nov, 2018Panama Oct-Dec, 2018El Salvador Nov-Dec, 2018Brazil Jan-Mar, 2019Guatemala Jan-Mar, 2019Mexico Jan-Mar, 2019Ecuador Jan-Mar, 2019Peru Feb-Mar, 2019Paraguay Feb-Apr, 2019

100% interviews audited for location, integrity, & quality

100% e-devices

Transparency & dissemination

Processing / In Progress / PlannedArgentina

ChileJamaicaBolivia

Dominican RepublicNicaragua

UruguayHaitiU.S.

Canada

2018/19 Round

Page 4: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Part 1: Intentions to Stay vs. Emigrate

In the Mexico & Northern Triangle region, the 2018/19 AmericasBarometer finds:

• An upward trend in migration intentions shifted in 2018/19

• About 1 in 10 report that they are highly motivated to leave their country

• In Honduras and El Salvador, more than 20% of homes receive remittances

Page 5: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

An upward trend in migration intentions shifted in 2018/19

Q14. Do you have any intention of going to live or work in another country in the next three years? Graph shows % responding “Yes”.

16%14%

16%

10%

14%

18% 19%

15%

18%20%

14%

18%

27%

25%

29%

25% 25%24%

28%

36%

26%24%

21%

15%

11%

32%

41%38%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

Intentions to Emigrate (vs. Stay)

Mexico Guatemala El Salvador Honduras

Honduras

El SalvadorGuatemalaMexico

Page 6: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Of those with intentions to leave, 2 in 5 say it is very likely that they will (i.e., of all adults, about 1 in 10 express a high likelihood/intention]

Q14. Do you have any intention of going to live or work in another country in the next three years?

Q14F. How likely is it that you will live and work in another country in the next three years?

27.1%

72.9%

YesNo

Expressed Intention to Emigrate: Mexico, Nor Tri Region, 2018/19

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019), q14 for Mex+NorTri 2018/19

42.0%

30.6%

22.3%

5.1%

Very likelySomewhat likelyUnlikelyNot at all likely

Reported Likelihood of Emigration:

Page 7: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

94.8%

5.2%

NoYes

Mexico

86.8%

13.2%

NoYes

Guatemala

76.5%

23.5%

NoYes

El Salvador

78.5%

21.5%

NoYes

Honduras

Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP (GM April 2019), 2018/19

More than 1 in 5 homes receive remittances in El Salvador and Honduras

Q10A. Do you or someone else living in your household receive remittances, that is, economic assistance from abroad? Yes, No

Page 8: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Part 2. Crime and Insecurity

The 2018/19 AmericasBarometer finds:

• 1 in 4 are victims of crime

• Victims often experience multiple victimizations per year

• Crime-related insecurity is rising in several countries

• Views of the police are low

• Views of the military are declining

• Not all insecurity is due to crime; high proportions express food insecurity

Page 9: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

About 1 in 4 are victims of crime, on average in the region

VIC1EXT. Now, changing the subject, have you been a victim of any type of crime in the past 12 months? That is, have you been a victim of robbery, burglary, assault, fraud, blackmail, extortion, violent threats or any other type of crime in the past 12 months? Pie chart shows 11-country regional average

75.8%

24.2%

NoYes

Crime Victim (%) 2018/19

Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 10: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Crime victimization experiences are most widespread in Peru

Victimization is above 20% in most countries.

Since 2016/17, rates increased in Panama (5.5) and decreased in Brazil (3.7).

19.1%

19.4%

20.4%

20.6%

21.5%

22.0%

22.2%

23.4%

28.8%

32.9%

35.8%

Brazil

Honduras

Guatemala

El Salvador

Panama

Paraguay

Costa Rica

Colombia

Ecuador

Mexico

Peru

0 10 20 30 40

Crime Victim (%) 2018/19

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 11: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Crime victims often experience more than one victimization

VIC1EXTA. [Asked of victims only]: How many times have you been a crime victim during the last 12 months?

41.8%

29.9%

12.4%

15.9%

OneTwoThreeFour+

Mexico

52.4%

24.3%

13.1%

10.2%

OneTwoThreeFour+

Guatemala

44.1%

29.6%

13.2%

13.2%

OneTwoThreeFour+

El Salvador

46.7%

27.3%

12.0%

14.0%

OneTwoThreeFour+

Honduras

Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP (GM April 2019), 2018/19

Page 12: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Insecurity continues to rise

AOJ11. Speaking of the neighborhood where you live and thinking of the possibility of being assaulted or robbed, do you feel verysafe, somewhat safe, somewhat unsafe or very unsafe? Insecurity is coded as those individuals who said they feel very unsafe.Graph shows 11-country regional average.

13.8%

10.1% 10.8%

8.5%

12.0%

17.9%19.8%

0

5

10

15

20

Feel

s Ve

ry In

secu

re (%

)

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Since 2016/17, insecurity:

• Decreased in Brazil

• Increased in Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Mexico

Page 13: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Trust in the police is low in Honduras, Peru, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Mexico

Since 2016/17, trust in the police

Increased:• Colombia: 7.7• Brazil: 8.8• Peru (3.4)

Decreased:• El Salvador: -5.7• Ecuador: -7.2• Honduras: -7.7

B18. To what extent do you trust the National Police? Coded so that 5-7, on a 1-to-7 scale are considered “trusting in the police.”

22.3%

28.7%

31.0%

31.0%

33.8%

42.6%

44.4%

47.9%

48.9%

50.0%

53.1%

Mexico

Paraguay

Guatemala

Peru

Honduras

Colombia

El Salvador

Costa Rica

Panama

Ecuador

Brazil

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Trust in the Police (%)2018/19

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 14: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Trust in the army is low in Honduras, but in all countries trust in the armed forces > trust in the police

B12. To what extent do you trust the Armed Forces? Coded so that 5-7, on a 1-to-7 scale are considered “trusting in the Armed Forces.”

Since 2016/17, trust in the army:

• Decreased in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Ecuador, Peru, and Paraguay

47.4%

53.0%

53.4%

53.8%

56.8%

60.0%

64.7%

70.5%

73.1%

Honduras

Peru

Paraguay

Colombia

El Salvador

Guatemala

Mexico

Brazil

Ecuador

0 20 40 60 80

Trust in Armed Forces (%)2018/19

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 15: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Not all insecurity is crime-related: food insecurity is a challenge in all countries, especially Honduras

FS2. In the past three months, because of a lack of money or other resources, did your household ever run out of food? Yes / No[Not shown]: FS8. In the last 3 months, due to lack of money or resources, have you or any adult in your household eaten only once a day or not eaten an entire day?

80.3%

19.7%

NoYes

Mexico

79.2%

20.8%

NoYes

Guatemala

71.1%

28.9%

NoYes

El Salvador

59.9%

40.1%

NoYes

Honduras

Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP (GM April 2019), 2018/19

Page 16: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Part 3. Corruption

The 2018/19 AmericasBarometer finds:

• 1 in 5 are victims of corruption (bribe solicitation)

• Tolerance for bribery is high in Honduras and Ecuador, and among the young

• Perceptions of political corruption have increased in most countries

Page 17: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Corruption victimization

EXC2. Has a police officer asked you for a bribe in the last twelve months?

EXC6. In the last twelve months, did any government employee ask you for a bribe?

EXC11. In the last twelve months, to process any kind of document in your local government, like a permit for example, did you have to pay any money above that required by law?

EXC13. In your work, have you been asked to pay a bribe in the last twelve months?

EXC14. Did you have to pay a bribe to the courts in the last twelve months?

EXC15. In order to be seen in a hospital or a clinic in the last twelve months, did you have to pay a bribe?

EXC16. Have you had to pay a bribe at school in the last twelve months?

*This series of corruption victimization is converted to an index and then the percentage of respondents who were victims is calculated.

Page 18: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Bribe victimization is fairly constant, but dropped slightly in 2018/19(chart shows regional average based on 11 countries)

20.4%18.0%

19.8%21.8%

20.3% 21.1%19.9%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cor

rupt

ion

Vict

ims

(%)

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 19: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Bribery is most widespread in Mexico

Since 2016/17, bribe experiences

Decreased:• Colombia: -4.1• Guatemala: -5.7

8.3%

10.7%

11.7%

13.3%

15.6%

19.4%

25.3%

26.3%

26.6%

28.3%

32.2%

Costa Rica

Brazil

El Salvador

Colombia

Panama

Guatemala

Honduras

Peru

Ecuador

Paraguay

Mexico

0 10 20 30 40

Corruption Victims (%)2018/19

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 20: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Police bribery experiences have returned to earlier levels

EXC2. Has a police officer asked you for a bribe in the last twelve months?

10.7% 10.0%10.8% 11.5% 11.9%

12.7%11.5%

0

5

10

15

Aske

d fo

r a B

ribe

by P

olic

e (%

)

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Large decline in police corruption in Paraguay:

• 21% in 2016/17

vs.

• 15.4 % in 2018/19

Page 21: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Tolerance of bribery is elevated, but declined in 2018/19

EXC18. Do you think given the ways things are, sometimes paying a bribe is justified?

18.1%15.9%

13.2% 13.2% 13.1%

19.8%

17.2%

0

5

10

15

20

Find

s Br

iber

y Ju

stifi

able

(%)

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 22: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

EXC18. Do you think given the ways things are, sometimes paying a bribe is justified?

Tolerance for bribery is highest in Honduras and Ecuador

Since 2016/17, tolerance

Decreased:• Guatemala: -4.1• Costa Rica: -5.7• Mexico: -6.7• Colombia: -7.8• Panama: -3.9

10.3%

10.5%

12.7%

13.3%

15.0%

16.5%

16.9%

19.1%

21.8%

25.4%

26.9%

Brazil

Colombia

El Salvador

Guatemala

Costa Rica

Peru

Mexico

Paraguay

Panama

Ecuador

Honduras

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Finds Bribery Justifiable (%)2018/19

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 23: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Younger age cohorts are more likely to be tolerant of bribery

EXC18. Do you think given the ways things are, sometimes paying a bribe is justified?

22.1%19.8%

15.7%14.0%

12.3%10.8%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Find

s Br

iber

y Ju

stifi

able

(%)

16-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66+

Age Cohort

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019) LA-11

Page 24: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Perceptions of corruption are elevated and, in many countries, on the rise

EXC7NEW. Thinking of politicians in [country], how many do you believe are involved in corruption?

Graph shows % “more than half” or “all” are corrupt.

Since 2016/17, perceptions of corruption

Increased in Peru, Panama, Guatemala, Honduras, Ecuador, El Salvador, Costa Rica

Decreased in Brazil, Mexico, Paraguay

54.2%

64.2%

64.3%

64.5%

65.4%

68.9%

73.3%

75.4%

78.3%

79.0%

84.7%

Costa Rica

El Salvador

Ecuador

Paraguay

Mexico

Honduras

Guatemala

Colombia

Brazil

Panama

Peru

0 20 40 60 80 100

More than Half/All Politicians are Corrupt (%)

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 25: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Part 4: The Media, Rights, and Elections

In the LAC-11 region, the 2018/19 AmericasBarometer finds:

• Trust in the media remains at middling levels, with a slight overall drop

• More than 1 in 2 typically believes there is very little freedom to express views without fear

• On average, fewer than 1-in-3 believe rights are well-protected

• Trust in elections remains low

Page 26: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Trust in the media has remained at middling levels, with a slight drop in 2018/19

60.6%55.0%

58.0%54.6%

50.5% 52.5%49.6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Trus

t Med

ia (%

)

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

B37 . Trust in the media 1-7 scale; graph shows the percentage who respond 5, 6, or 7. Chart shows regional average based on 11-countries.

Since 2016/17, trust

Increased:• Colombia: 11.0

Decreased:• Paraguay: -4.9• Honduras: -8.4• Guatemala: -9.2• Costa Rica: -21.3

Page 27: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Perceptions of deficits in freedom of to speak without fear are high and stable in Honduras

LIB2c. . And freedom to express political views without fear. Do we have very little, enough, or too much? Graph shows the percentage who report “very little” (vs. enough or too much).

Improvements: Since 2016/17, the percentage reporting “very little” freedom decreased in Mexico, El Salvador, & Guatemala.

45.5%

57.9%

59.3%

61.3%

65.2%

66.7%

Paraguay

Peru

El Salvador

Mexico

Guatemala

Honduras

0 20 40 60 80

Very Little Freedom to Speak w/o Fear (%)2018/19

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 28: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

On average, fewer than 1-in-3 agree that basic rights are well-protected

B3. To what extent do you think that citizens' basic rights are well protected by the political system of (country)?Graphs shows % who respond 5, 6, or 7, one a 1-to-7 not at all to a lot scale.

33.2%30.7%

37.6%34.2%

32.2%29.4% 28.0%

0

10

20

30

40

Basi

c R

ight

s W

ell-P

rote

cted

(%)

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

Basic Rights Protected (LA-11), by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019) LA-11

On average in the region,

• The youngest (<26) and the oldest (>65) are more likely to agree that basic rights are well-protected

• Women are slightly more likely to agree that basic rights are protected

Page 29: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Belief that rights are well-protected is particularly low in Peru

B3. To what extent do you think that citizens' basic rights are well protected by the political system of (country)? 5, 6, 7 coded agree.

Since 2016/17, views on right protection

• Increased in Mexico and Brazil

• Decreased in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Ecuador, Panama, and Honduras

20.0%

22.6%

23.9%

24.5%

25.7%

26.4%

26.8%

27.7%

36.4%

36.7%

37.6%

Peru

Brazil

Honduras

Panama

Paraguay

Guatemala

El Salvador

Colombia

Mexico

Ecuador

Costa Rica

0 10 20 30 40

Basic Rights Well-Protected (%)

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 30: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Trust in elections remains low

B47A. To what extent do you trust elections in this country? 5, 6, 7 coded as “trust”.

40.8%37.5% 35.9% 35.8%

0

10

20

30

40

Trus

t Ele

ctio

ns (%

)

2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 31: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Trust in elections varies across countries

B47A. To what extent do you trust elections in this country? 5, 6, 7 coded as “trust”.

Since 2016/17, trust

Increased:• Colombia: 8.9 • Brazil: 10.6• Mexico: 17.2• Paraguay: 3.7

Decreased:• Panama: -4.6• Ecuador: -6.4• Peru: -7.8• Costa Rica: -8.8• Honduras: -12.5

21.7%

31.6%

32.9%

33.2%

33.2%

33.6%

35.3%

38.3%

42.3%

42.9%

47.7%

Honduras

Guatemala

Colombia

Brazil

Peru

Panama

Paraguay

El Salvador

Mexico

Ecuador

Costa Rica

0 10 20 30 40 50

Trust Elections (%)

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 32: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Part 5: Support for democracy

In the LAC-11 region, the 2018/19 AmericasBarometer finds:

• Satisfaction with democracy has remained low

• Support for democracy has remained low

• Support for executive coups has increased

Page 33: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

In the average country, satisfaction with democracy has remained low

PN4. In general, would you say that you are very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in (country)? Graph shows % very satisfied or satisfied (vs. not). Graph shows regional average based on 11 countries

43.7%

50.5%

58.4% 56.5%51.3%

36.8% 37.6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% S

atis

fied

or V

ery

Satis

fied

with

Dem

ocra

cy

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2019 (GM April 2019)

Page 34: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

A minority is satisfied with how democracy works

PN4. In general, would you say that you are very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in (country)?

Since 2016/17, satisfaction

Increased:• Paraguay: 9.8• Mexico: 19.9• Brazil: 20.4

Decreased:• El Salvador: -4.2• Costa Rica: -4.9• Panama: -12.1• Ecuador: -13.4

26.1%

28.0%

29.3%

35.9%

36.6%

38.7%

41.0%

42.2%

42.6%

45.6%

46.4%

Colombia

Honduras

El Salvador

Ecuador

Guatemala

Paraguay

Costa Rica

Panama

Peru

Mexico

Brazil

0 10 20 30 40 50

% Satisfied or Very Satisfied with Democracy

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP 2019 (GM April 2019)

Page 35: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Between half and 2/3 of the public believes their country is functioning as a democracy

New in 2018/19: DEM30. In your opinion, [country] is a democracy?

52.3%

59.2%

65.8%

65.8%

66.3%

67.3%

Honduras

El Salvador

Guatemala

Mexico

Peru

Paraguay

0 20 40 60 80

[Country] is a Democracy (%)2018/19

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

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In the average country, support for democracy has remained tepid

63.7% 64.3% 64.5% 63.2% 62.4%54.0% 56.0%

0

20

40

60

80

Supp

ort D

emoc

racy

(%)

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

ING4. Democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? 5, 6, 7 coded as “support”. Graph shows regional average based on 11 countries.

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On average, support for democracy is lower among the younger cohorts

ING4. Democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? 5, 6, 7 coded as “support”.

54.2% 52.9% 55.1% 57.3%61.1% 63.3%

0

20

40

60

80

Supp

ort f

or D

emoc

racy

(%)

<=25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66+

LA-11, by Age Cohort

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019), LA-11, 2018/19

Page 38: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Support for democracy low and declining in Honduras, Peru, Panama

Since 2016/17, support

Increased:• El Salvador: 4.0• Colombia: 6.9• Brazil: 7.7• Mexico: 13.4

Decreased:• Peru: -3.4• Panama: -5.4• Honduras: -6.1

45.0%

48.9%

49.3%

51.2%

53.8%

54.4%

58.6%

59.8%

60.2%

62.7%

72.4%

Honduras

Guatemala

Peru

Paraguay

Panama

Ecuador

El Salvador

Brazil

Colombia

Mexico

Costa Rica

0 20 40 60 80

Support Democracy (%)

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

ING4. Democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? 5, 6, 7 coded as “support”.

Page 39: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Tolerance for autogolpes (shuttering Congress) has continued to increase, while tolerance for military coups has remained at between 37-40% in 2016-2019

JC15A. Do you believe that when the country is facing very difficult times it is justifiable for the president of the country to close the Congress and govern without Congress? Graph shows regional average based on 11 countries.

16.8% 16.0%18.4%

22.0%

25.6%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Supp

ort C

ongr

essi

onal

Shu

tdow

n (%

)

2010 2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Support for shuttering Congress is highest in Peru (58.9%).

Support for shuttering Congress is lowest in El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Colombia (all < 20%).

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Part 6: Views of the U.S. and China

In the LAC-11 region, the 2018/19 AmericasBarometer finds:

• In most countries, more people trust the Chinese government than the USG

• Trust in the U.S. and China, respectively, has declined

Page 41: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

More people trust the Chinese government than trust the USG (2018/19)

Chart shows the % of people with trust in the Chinese government , minus the % of people with trust in the U.S. government. Positive values mean more trust in China than in the U.S.

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Mexico

Peru

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Honduras

El Salvador

Ecuador

Paraguay

Brazil

Colombia

Panama

Trust U.S. More

Panama is the exception

Trust China More

Page 42: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Trust in the U.S. has declined sharply

MIL10E. The government of the United States. In your opinion, is it very trustworthy, somewhat trustworthy, not very trustworthy, or not at all trustworthy, or do you not have an opinion? Those without an opinion are not included in the analysis.

66.2%62.5%

51.0%

40.1%

0

20

40

60

80

U.S

. is

Som

ewha

t or V

ery

Trus

twor

thy

(%)

2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

Page 43: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Trust in China also has declined

56.4%50.9%

57.0%

46.1%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Chi

na is

Som

ewha

t or V

ery

Trus

twor

thy

(%)

2012 2014 2016/17 2018/19

LA-11, by Wave

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019)

MIL10A. The government of China. In your opinion, is it very trustworthy, somewhat trustworthy, not very trustworthy, or not at all trustworthy, or do you not have an opinion? Those without an opinion are not included in the analysis.

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Part 7: Social Media

In the LAC-11 region, the 2018/19 AmericasBarometer finds:

• Facebook and WhatsApp are used by majorities in Latin America

• Among Facebook and WhatsApp users, the majority access content daily

• 80% of the youngest age cohort (those 25 and under) use social media often

• High social media users are more supportive of democracy, but less satisfied

Page 45: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Whatsapp and Facebook are used by a majority of Latin Americans

SMEDIA1. Do you have a Facebook account? SMEDIA4. Do you have a Twitter account? SMEDIA7. Do you have a WhatsApp account?

55.1%44.9%

YesNo

Has Facebook

8.4%

91.6% YesNo

Has Twitter

61.4%

38.6%

YesNo

Has Whatsapp

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019), LA-11

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Facebook and Whatsapp users: the majority access content daily

SMEDIA2. How often do you view content on Facebook? SMEDIA5. How often do you view content on Twitter?

SMEDIA8. How often do you use WhatsApp?

54.9%33.6%

8.7%

DailyWeeklyMonthlyYearlyNever

Frecuency of Facebook Use

32.2%

31.6%

19.0%

8.5%8.7%

DailyWeeklyMonthlyYearlyNever

Frecuency of Twitter Use

80.5%

15.8%3.0%

DailyWeeklyMonthlyYearlyNever

Frecuency of WhatsApp Use

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019), LA-11

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The young are very likely to be “high social media users”(use Facebook, Twitter, and/or WhatsApp several times a week or more)

Based on SMEDIA2, SMEDIA5, and SMEDIA8.

80.6%73.6%

63.3%

50.1%

36.4%

17.8%

0

20

40

60

80

Hig

h So

cial

Med

ia U

se (%

)

<=25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 66+

LA-11, by Age Cohort

95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019), 2018/19

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High social media users support democracy, but are less satisfied

Graph shows different rates of support for democracy and satisfaction with democracy (see earlier slides for coding), among those

who frequently use social media and those who do not use social media often. Differences hold if age, education, and wealth are controlled.

53.7%57.3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Supp

ort f

or D

emoc

racy

(%)

No/Low SMedia High SMedia

42.1%

34.9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Satis

fied

with

Dem

ocra

cy (%

)

No/Low SMedia High SMedia 95 % Confidence Interval (with Design-Effects)

Source: AmericasBarometer, LAPOP (GM April 2019), LA-11

Page 49: The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: …...The Political Culture of Democracy in the Americas: First Glance at Topline Results Dr. Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Director

Report Credits

Follow us on Twitter @lapop_barómetroAll LAPOP reports and data are available at www.lapopsurveys.org

This study was made possible thanks to the support of the United States Agency for International Development. The opinions expressed in this study correspondto the authors and do not necessarily reflect the point of view of the United States Agency for International Development.

Authors:Noam Lupu

Elizabeth J. Zechmeister

Georgina PizzolittoAlexa Rains

Maita SchadeMitchell A. Seligson

Carole Wilson

Rubí AranaFernanda Boidi

Sebastian LarreaTonya Mills

Daniel Montalvo

LAPOP Central Team: